Author: RJ Allen

For The Future Of Girls: Why We Need To Support the Afghan WNT

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Afghan women’s national team has taken a great risk to tell their stories.

The allegations of physical and sexual abuse have all been against the federation’s president, Keramuudin Karim, who was suspended by FIFA along with four other members of the federation. The Guardian published the initial article alleging abuse a month ago, and on December 27th, journalist Suzanne Wrack released another piece for the Guardian detailing exactly what the women are claiming.

The piece is difficult to read. The women speak about a secret bedroom that the president had attached to his office, with a door that seemed to blend into the wall and that could only be opened by his fingerprint. When women resisted the sexual advances of the president, they were beaten and threatened. If they spoke about releasing their story, the president tried to ruin their reputations and threatened their families.

Suzanne Wrack has done an excellent job covering this story. And it has gained social media traction, with players like Alex Morgan sharing both the articles and her own outrage. The Attorney General of Afghanistan has said he is investigating the problem, but the players have low expectations. The president is a former government official, and many think it is unlikely that the president won’t be able to find a way out of this situation. FIFA’s reputation for corruption is no better.

It is important that the global women’s soccer community keeps this story alive. Suzanne Wrack is doing a fantastic job providing coverage in a major media outlet. But support from other national teams—by those players, fans, or journalists—could help keep FIFA’s feet to the fire. The Afghan women need our support right now and it is important that we do not let this story fade into the background.

According to UN Women, 35% of women will suffer physical or sexual abuse from a non-partner in their lifetime. So, it seems unlikely that Afghanistan is the only federation dealing with sexual and physical abuse. This isn’t just an Afghanistan problem. It’s a global problem. And we do a disservice to the women of Afghanistan and female athletes all around the world if we ignore it.

One woman had a powerful quote in the latest Guardian article. “I know that my family is in danger and I know they will be when more comes out. But I want to stand and speak about it because of the future of girls. I want girls to have a safe environment.”

The Afghan players have risked everything to tell their story. And it’s up to us to make sure they know that the women’s football community has their back. These players need our help.

Will we stand by and let them be ignored?

USWNT Camp Underdogs: Kealia Ohai

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to a three part series where we take a look at three different players on the USWNT Player pool bubble – or just the outside of it.. We’ll take you through the reasons they may or may not be included in the 2019 USWNT January camp.

Player Name: Kealia Ohai
Current Team: Houston Dash
Chance of Getting A Call Up: 6/10

Why a call up is due:

After missing most of last season injured, Ohai played a critical role for the Houston offense this season. She finished the year with five goals and four assists, but even when she wasn’t putting the ball in the net, she was helping create scoring chances for players like Rachel Daly. She has also proven her leadership capabilities this year following Carli Lloyd’s departure from the Houston Dash and stayed healthy after returning from her season-ending injury from last year. She’s a creative player that could expand scoring opportunities for the United States. She had a successful youth career with the U.S., which included helping the U-20 team qualify for the U-20 Women’s World Cup. However, despite her youth success, Ohai has only had a handful of opportunities with the senior national team. Still, she has tried to make the best of her chances to impress Jill Ellis.

Why it may not happen:

She hasn’t scored for the U.S. since October 2016 and only has three caps. After getting called up to the preliminary roster for this summer’s Tournament of Nations and the SheBelieves Cup in March, she was cut from the final rosters for both tournaments. Additionally, scoring hasn’t been the problem for the United States. With offensive weapons like Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, and Mallory Pugh that are consistently producing, Jill Ellis doesn’t have a lot of incentive to experiment. Unfortunately for Ohai, the competition level might be too high for her to earn a spot in France.

USWNT Camp Underdog: Andi Sullivan

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to a three part series where we take a look at three different players on the USWNT Player pool bubble – or just the outside of it.. We’ll take you through the reasons they may or may not be included in the 2019 USWNT January camp.

Player Name: Andi Sullivan
Current Team: Washington Spirit
Chance of them getting a call up: 6/10.

Why a call up is due:

With the start of 2019 and the looming World Cup, the majority of the roster is fairly set; however, Andi Sullivan should be including in the January camp and the friendly against France. Historically, once the World Cup cycle ends, several of the veteran players announce their retirement from international play. Including Sullivan in the mix would keep a player in her early twenties around the core group to step in to help fill that void. Additionally, she could easily step in if there is an injury to the U.S. midfield. While playing in the NWSL, she played 23 out of Washington’s 24 matches, starting 22 contests and only getting subbed off twice and racking up 1984 minutes. The bright spots of her play was her 78.9% passing while averaging 44.8 passes per 90 and a successfully tackling rate of 86.8% demonstrating her potential going forward if given time to develop.

Why it may not happen:

Let’s be honest here, Andi Sullivan’s rookie season was well, not something to write home about for the number one overall pick in the 2018 draft. Some of the middling play carried over for her when she was previously called up to the national team. Looking as recent as the November friendly versus Portugal, she failed to impress as the holding mid he most notable play was when she was booked in the 31st minute then subbed out at half time. Prior to this, Sullivan didn’t make the cut to be on the Concacaf women’s championship roster, and the last time she was representing the red, white, and blue was back in April against Mexico. She didn’t play the full 90, giving way in the 53rd minute to Carli Lloyd.

USWNT Fans Should Find Their Inner Chill

Posted on by RJ Allen

The USWNT have finished 2018 without dropping a match. 20 matches played and a 18-0-2 record to show for it. And now it’s time for all eyes to turn to 2019.

We now know who the USWNT will face in the group stage of the 2019 Women’s World Cup – Thailand, Chile and Sweden – so all that worry about a “group of death” is suddenly gone.

The US are all but a lock to come out of this group on top. Even if they somehow draw Sweden, the goal differential against Chile and Thailand should more than see them through.

The USWNT is in a good position heading into 2019. They have a solid core, and a large crop of players who appear ready to take the next step upward. Is it precisely the roster I’d prefer? No. And likely many other observers have some differences of their own. But with as much talent as the US has available, there aren’t a ton of flat-out wrong answers.

And while some issues linger, the USWNT is winning. Not just winning, but blowing teams out of the water. They faced Denmark, Germany, England, Mexico, China, Japan, Brazil, Chile, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Canada, Portugal and Scotland and came away with wins. Australia and France were their only draws.

Fans of the USWNT are in a strange position. They have come to expect utter perfection, knowing that any moment the cleat could drop and the team could end up relegated to the trash bin of women’s soccer history.

The truth is often found between the extremes. This team isn’t perfect, but it’s very good. And it truth is: it doesn’t need to be perfect.

Jill Ellis is not an all-time great coach, but she’s done a pretty good job at bringing the USWNT back to a clear status as the best in the world, after their worst-ever performance in the 2016 Olympics. That period has included some real downs – notably the experimental phase that saw a three back with Allie Long in the middle – but she’s righted the ship. These days, the US is the sort of team that can – and often does – make good teams look bad.

I am not saying the USWNT will win the Women’s World Cup. But no matter what Kelley O’Hara or Jill Ellis says, they are the favorites by any sane measure. While there are places the team still needs to improve, there’s no reason to think they can’t do it. This is not the US team of 2003 or 2007, which faced real, maybe unfixable, problems.

For this holiday season may we all find a little chill in our gift piles. Six-plus months until the first Women’s World Cup match kicks off is a long time to rage tweet about who is going to be the second back up goalkeeper.

USWNT Camp Underdogs: Vanessa DiBernardo

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to a three part series where we take a look at three different players on the USWNT Player pool bubble – or just the outside of it.. We’ll take you through the reasons they may or may not be included in the 2019 USWNT January camp.

Player Name: Vanessa DiBernardo
Current Team: Chicago Red Stars
Chance of them getting a call up: 3/10

Why a call up is due:

DiBernardo has been a mainstay on lists like this for years, and there’s a good reason for it. While she lacks some of the pinpoint precision that defines the core players of the US central midfield setup, she also possesses the sort of searching vision that has generally been lacking in recent years. As one of the best attacking passers in the world, DiBernardo offers a slightly different look—one that could be particularly useful when the US plays weaker teams who hope to pack the channels. She’s no Lauren Holiday, but she might just be the closest approximation in the current US player pool, and the US could certainly use a player like that.

Why it may not happen:

The biggest reason to think DiBernardo won’t get a callup is that all the arguments in her favor have been true for years, with virtually no little evidence that it’s made an impact on Jill Ellis or her staff. DiBernardo would be an interesting move, but one that would fly in the face of Ellis’s longstanding desire to shift attacking play wide and to emphasize physically dominant players in the center. Given those conditions, DiBernardo is simply too far down on the depth chart to fit into the team’s plans in 2019.

The USWNT are World Cup Favorites No Matter What Kelley O’Hara Says

Posted on by RJ Allen

The United States Women’s National team had to be happy when they saw their draw in the 2019 Women’s World Cup but are trying to bang the drum to keep their motivation high. The team is in Group F against Thailand, Sweden and Chile who have poor historical record against the reigning World Cup Champions.

Still, that hasn’t stopped defender Kelley O’Hara from stating that they may be champs but aren’t the favorites in France come June:

“I would never place us as ‘favorites’ or put it on us,” said O’Hara following the draw. “We do hold ourselves to a very high standard and , yeah, we want to win. Who doesn’t want to win the World Cup? Being the defending champions, I absolutely want to go back-to-back.”

O’Hara may be referring to France as the potential favorites who are not only hosts but also have a win over the United States since the last World Cup. This year the French side has only lost one game, a 4-1 defeat to England back in early April, and have won their last seven games in convincing fashion. That coupled with fact that the US will more than likely meet France in the Quarterfinals if all go according to plan, stacks the pressure on both teams but doesn’t quite push the hosts over the reigning champions.

Then there is the issue of Sweden. They represent the only team in the group with a result of note, a goal-less draw against the US back in 2015 World Cup. While O’Hara and squad will certainly be looking for a slight bit of revenge, the group is structured in a way that makes it very difficult to fail and thus why there is no way that the reigning champions cannot be considered favorites.

“The gap between the top-ranked team and the lowest in this World Cup is much closer than it ever has been, in terms of just level of play,” O’Hara said. “That is attributed to federations investing more time and money into their female program which, I think, needs to continue. It’s just starting and it’s only going to get better, but it does need that investment from the federations.

“I think they’ll be pleasantly surprised to see that the competition is going to be stiff and exciting.”

The US will begin their warm-up tour in January against France, in France. Should they not get a result in that game perhaps the narrative will change. However, until the someone knocks the champions off of their perch, it will be very difficult for anyone to see the US as anything other than what they really are: Champions with the pressure to repeat no matter the opponents.

World Cup Draw: France Comfortable In Group A

Posted on by RJ Allen
On the morning of December 8th, FIFA hosted an event in Paris to determine the groups for the first stage of the 2019 Women’s World Cup.  Some groups, such as Group D and Group E, are shaping up to be an exciting competition. Other groups, such as Group F, might prove to be a bit boring, but will provide a smooth road for the strongest teams.  The host nation, France, finds themselves in a group somewhere between these two extremes. Group A features France, Korea Republic, Norway, and Nigeria. While France should be able to come out on the top of this group without a problem, it’s dangerous to dismiss any of these teams as a lost cause. Korea Republic have qualified for just two Women’s World Cups (2003 and 2015). In 2015, they made it out of a group that included Brazil, Spain, and Costa Rica, but lost 3-0 in the Round of 16 to France. They almost missed out on this World Cup, but managed to snag the final Asian berth by finishing in fifth at the AFC Women’s Asian Cup. Still, they sit at a FIFA Ranking of 14th and could be dangerous if given the opportunity.  Norway’s fate at the 2019 Women’s World Cup will likely be determined by Ada Hegerberg. Hegerberg is one of the best strikers in the world, but she took a break from international soccer due to perceived inequality from the Norwegian Federation. Even with Hegerberg in the squad at the 2017 Euros, Norway failed to win a single game in their group and exited after the first round. But they defeated the tournament’s champions, the Netherlands, to punch their ticket to France in the European qualifiers. I would probably favor Norway to finish as the No. 2 team in this group, regardless of Hegerberg’s decision.  Nigeria has qualified for all seven Women’s World Cup tournaments and made it as far as the quarter-finals in 1999. On their road to France, they won the Women’s Africa Cup, but barely. They failed to score against Cameroon in the semi-finals or South Africa in the final, winning the tournament on penalties. Nigeria has the World Cup experience, but is likely to struggle against the other squads in this group. As I said previously, France should made it out of the group without much of a problem. But the group will provide enough competition to keep it interesting. France are expected to do well in the tournament, especially with the added benefit of being the host nation. But they have had a lot of retirements since 2015, and haven’t necessarily succeeded in bringing in solid replacements. They will not be a team without weaknesses, and each of their opponents are capable of capitalizing.

World Cup Power Rankings: Evaluating the Draw

Posted on by RJ Allen

Last week I divided the World Cup competitors into five tiers. Now that we have the full draw, it’s worth taking a look to see how everyone is situated. Did anyone’s road get easier? Harder? Is there a ‘group of death’? 

For the most part, the answer to all the questions is ‘no.’ Given a strict seeding system, the pots were pretty evenly balanced. That said, some of the groups do look a bit more interesting, and maybe a bit tougher, than others. So let’s dig in.

Group A: France (tier 1), Norway (tier 3), South Korea (tier 3), Nigeria (tier 4)

This is probably the toughest group from top to bottom. Nigeria was one of the strongest teams in Pot 4, and the same is true of South Korea in Pot 3. Which means all four teams have a legitimate chance of advancing. That said, the overall strength of the group is probably good for France, who is a clear step ahead of the other three. If everyone plays to their level, I’d expect Norway, South Korea, and Nigeria to take points from one another, letting France escape fairly easily with a first place finish. That said, this is one of the groups with the highest variance in possible outcomes. If France does slip up in their opening match against South Korea, there’s a high possibility for chaos to ensue.

Group B: Germany (2), China (3), Spain (3), South Africa (4)

If Group A isn’t the strongest overall, it’s probably this one. Plus, Germany isn’t playing at France’s level right now–and won’t have the home field advantage–which makes the top spot far more open. I’d still expect Germany to have more than enough to handle the others, but it wouldn’t be especially surprising to see either China or Spain sneak into the top position. Then factor in that South Africa is no one’s idea of a pushover, and you have maybe an incredibly fascinating group. I like this Spain team a lot, and was considering adopting them as my dark horse team to follow. This group creates the highest range of possible outcomes they were likely to encounter. They could win the group or finish in last place, without a massive difference in performance.

Group C: Australia (1), Brazil (3), Italy (3), Jamaica (5)

The first group with a clear team at the bottom. Jamaica are probably the weakest team in the tournament, and the draw didn’t do them any huge favors. Italy and Brazil are vulnerable, but it would be a major shock if they dropped points against the Reggae Girlz. Meanwhile, although Australia will want to avoid getting overconfident, they should be able to manage first here without too much trouble, particularly since they play Jamaica last and will know precisely how many goals they’ll need to score to win the goal difference tiebreaker, should they find themselves in a position where that matters. Which means Italy v. Brazil on June 18 could be one of the key matchups in the group stage.

Group D: England (1), Japan (3), Scotland (4), Argentina (5)

This is probably my favorite group. Strictly going by tiers, it looks pretty straightforward. But Japan, Scotland, and Argentina are all among the strongest teams in their tier. If Japan plays like they did over the last 18 months, England should have no trouble with them, and the big question will be whether Scotland can overtake them. But it doesn’t pay to underestimate Japan in big tournaments, and I have a sneaking suspicion that their commitment to youth is going to pay off next summer with a team that looks closer to the dangerous Japan teams over the earlier part of the decade. Then consider the excitement of England v. Scotland, and you’ve got an opportunity for some serious fireworks.

One other thing worth noting: the winner of this group gets placed in probably the best spot in the bracket–facing a third place team in the round of 16 and then a relatively weak runner-up (probably Brazil or Norway) in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, whoever finishes second will get thrown into a Round of 16 showdown with either Canada or the Netherlands, and would then probably have to play Australia in the quarterfinals. Ouch.

England and Japan play in the final match on June 19, which will probably determine who goes where. That’s definitely one worth marking down on your calendar.

Group E: Canada (2), Netherlands (2), New Zealand (4), Cameroon (5)

This is just about the best possible outcome for the Dutch, who were (pretty easily) the strongest team in Pot 2. They’ll face off against the weakest team from Pot 1, in the only group where there’s nothing close to a clear favorite to win the group. I’d bet on the Netherlands, but not by much. Meanwhile, New Zealand is good enough to play with the top two, but more realistically will have to hope to keep those games tight enough that a big win over Cameroon is enough to see them through.

Group F: USA (1), Sweden (3), Chile (4), Thailand (5)

Yawn. theoretically possible for the US to fail to advance from this group, but it would be the single most shocking result in the history of women’s soccer. In fact, it would be deeply surprising if they did anything other than win the group at a canter. Even if Sweden pulls another miracle out of their hat, their chances of beating the US are pretty low, and the Americans will probably score a dozen or so goals in the other two matches, putting their goal difference out of reach. Basically, the US almost literally couldn’t have been handed an easier group. That said, if they stroll into a quarterfinal match against France having barely been tested, they might end up wishing for a bit more pressure in the early stages.

In my initial framework, I identified 15 teams in the top three tiers. These are the ones that I believe should expect to advance to the knockout round, all things being equal. Now that we have the groups, though, it looks like the teams in Groups A, B, and C might have drawn a slightly shorter stick. They’ll each be competing with other similarly-situated squads for the two guaranteed slots. If they can’t manage that, they’ll have to cast their luck with the third-place chances. But precisely because they’re in tougher groups, they’re more likely to drop points compared to teams in the other groups that face some slightly easier competition.

Meanwhile, Group F looks like the place least likely to produce a third place advancer. Whoever finishes third in that group will probably have a battering from the US dragging down their goal difference, meaning they’ll almost certainly need four points if they want to get through. Which means they’ll need a draw against Sweden–possible, but unlikely.

All of that said, it’s still a long way from June, 2019. Some of these teams may show enough over that time to significantly affect our assessment of their chances. And, of course, soccer is a funny old game so you never want to bet too heavily on things going to form.

What are your thoughts? Who got the easiest draw? The toughest? Which matches are you most anticipating?

MLS Commissioner Don Garber Shares League Position on Growing Women’s Game

Posted on by RJ Allen

Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber gave his annual State of the League address and was asked specifically if teams in his league are interested in investing in the women’s game ahead of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup. In year’s past, Garber has been coy when answering these questions but was far more talkative on Friday, perhaps due to the massive success of the host team Atlanta United FC. His answers didn’t necessarily strike at the heart of any issues but it did leave it in the hands of the clubs themselves.

“This is something we’re leaving to our individual clubs,” said Garber when asked about team investments in the women’s game. “It’s not something we’re looking at engaging at the league level through Mark at league operations on the competitive side or Gary on the commercial side. We made that decision a number of years ago to try to let the women’s league find their own way.”

Since MLS stepped away a number of years ago but several teams have still remained involved in varying levels. The Houston Dash, Portland Thorns, Seattle Reign and Utah Royals all have significant ownership stakes from MLS franchise owners. Even in the lower leagues of the men’s game, teams like North Carolina FC have worked towards bringing successful teams to the United states with the North Carolina Courage making the NWSL Championship last season. Despite the eagerness to engage in the women’s game, Don Garber and MLS seem reluctant.

Part of that may have to do with the United Soccer League. The USL which now controls the professional game below the first division with the USL Championship and USL League One, has shown an interest in potentially running the NWSL. First reported by Bob Williams of Sports Business Insider back in July, the ever-growing men’s league appeared ready to step in and take the reigns from USSF which has done a poor job by the judgement of many in running the only current women’s league in the country. Whether anything more comes of the rumors remains to be seen. However the rapid expansion of USL not just at the division 2 level but at the semi-pro level and their interest in controlling a division one league could find this a interesting proposition.

“We have been encouraging our owners to expand what they could offer to our fans,” said Garber, tactically pointing at the league’s interest without saying too much. “We have a 34 game schedule. 17 non-playoff games on a regular season. There’s no reason, if the market could support it, that we wouldn’t want our teams to have more inventory in those stadiums.

“We also believe that we need to drive the ‘Soccer Nation’ thing. While I am very proud of the fact that Major League Soccer has been a big driver of some of the successes that have gone on in the sport, whether it’s from a fan perspective and the supporter movement, growing the commercial aspect of the game or thinking about technology, social media and the like. I do think that we could use some of our collective wisdom to grow the women’s game.”

World Cup Power Rankings: Favorites, Dark Horses, and Longshots

Posted on by RJ Allen

After several years of qualifying tournaments, the guest list is finally set. We now know the official list of twenty-four teams who will be attending the World Cup in France next summer. The latest FIFA rankings will drop on December 7, allowing for the creation of four pots from which teams will be drawn on December 8.

In the meantime, this is an opportune moment to reflect on the teams who will be attending. Who are the favorites? Who are the dark horses? Who is expected to struggle?

For sake of categorization, I’ve divided the nations into five tiers. Not every team in each tier is equal, of course, but these seemed to be the logical places to draw rough lines of separation.

Tier 1: Favorites

USA, France, Australia, England

It’s very likely that one of these four teams will win the World Cup.

Based on current form, the US arguably deserves to be in their own category (call it Tier 1A), after racing through an undefeated 2018–a year in which they played all the other major competitors apart from the Dutch. But even if the US are clear favorites, it’s not by a huge margin. All four of these teams are stacked, and if they were to face off in the late stages of the Cup, it would be anyone’s game. France has the advantage of playing at home (which is a serious advantage), so they’re probably second-favorites. But England and Australia are filled with talent, and both look ready to step into the inner circle of world powers. And who wants to be the one to bet against Sam Kerr or Fran Kirby when it’s all on the line?

Tier 2: Challengers

Germany, Netherlands, Canada

Here we find three high quality teams, each with enough flaws and limitations to keep them out of the top tier, but each good enough to beat anyone.

Germany is probably the surprise here; we’ve grown accustomed to seeing them trading spots at the top of the rankings with the United States, and looking over the roster there doesn’t seem to be any massive holes. But the results simply haven’t been there for a long time, so clearly something is missing. The biggest banana skins for them are in the defense–which is nowhere near as resolute as it once was–but they’re also missing a true world-class striker. Still, there is a boatload of talent in the team, so it would be tough to really bet against them. If Dzsenifer Marozsán plays the way we know she’s capable of, if Alexadra Popp can find her way back to being a top striker, if some of their young players take that key step forward…the potential is all there.

Then there’s the Netherlands. The European champions have already demonstrated they have the capacity to win a major tournament. The Dutch chances will rise and fall with their world-class attacking talent: Lieke Martens and Vivianne Miedema. Together, they make a strike force as dangerous as any in the tournament. But there’s quality up and down this roster. While they had a difficult route to qualification—having to squeeze through a four-team playoff—they’re here now, and no one will fancy a knockout match against them.

Rounding out this tier is Canada, who lack the depth of the other top teams, but will hope to catch lightning in a bottle and finally give Christine Sinclair a major trophy. Their tournament will probably depend heavily on Jessie Fleming. Still quite young, she can sometimes drift out of games. But on her day, she’s about as unplayable as anyone in the world. They’ll need a top quality performance from her, Sinclair, and probably a few others if they hope to take home the cup. But if the chips fall right, it could absolutely happen.

Combined, these top two tiers contain seven teams. I’d estimate that chances are probably 90-95% that one of those seven lifts the cup on July 7 in Lyon. Of the set, only the US and Germany have won the competition before. For the other five, this would be a chance to enter the narrow ranks of World Cup winners.

Tier 3: If everything breaks right

Japan, Brazil, Sweden, China, Norway, Italy, Spain, South Korea

The teams in this group all have enough quality to at least theoretically fit into the conversation for title contenders. More realistically, they should treat a visit to the quarterfinals as a strong performance, with anything more being icing on top.

Most have some specific reasons to be hopeful, though all have serious areas of concern as well. Brazil will have Marta, of course, but while still a superb player, the days have passed when she could potentially win a tournament by herself. And the rest of the squad has simply never filled in the gaps behind her. This may be her last hurrah, and it would be exciting to see it conclude with a deep run.

Japan, meanwhile, have seen their golden generation pass without any signs of sufficient replacement. Still, the 2015 finalists overachieved to make it that far, so it would be a mistake to write this version off too quickly. Japan’s main advantage is a unified style of play—technical, precise, and fluid. They lack the sheer physical dominance of the top teams, and will likely struggle against fast, aggressive attacks. But there is much to be said for a team built around a shared system.

The rest of this tier is filled with fading giants of the women’s game—Norway and China in particular, Sweden to a lesser extent—and teams looking to take a step forward into the next rank. Spain, in particular, has taken major strides in recent years (with the recent success of the Spanish U17s only demonstrating their status as a team on the rise) and might be a dark horse here.

Norway have one potential wild card in the form of Ada Hegerberg. She stepped away from international soccer last summer and there have been no signs of a rapprochement. That’s unfortunate for Norway. Without her, they are a solid team, but one with narrow margins available in tight games. With her, their chances of scraping a win against a top team would grow significantly.

The first three tiers combine to include fifteen teams. If chalk held perfectly, there would be room for all fifteen to escape their groups. However, given the vagaries of the draw, and the obvious reality that some teams will outperform expectations while others fail to clear the bar, it would be quite surprising if all fifteen did in fact make the Round of 16. To see who is likely to beat out some of these teams, you’ll want to look at Tier 4.

Tier 4: Strivers

Scotland, New Zealand, Nigeria, South Africa, Chile

The teams in this group have fewer obvious strengths, and more glaring flaws, than those in the 3rd tier. But the gap is not enormous. I would certainly expect a few of this group to outperform some of those listed ahead of them. The question is which ones.

Scotland have the biggest single weapon here, in the form of Kim Little. Combine her with a defensively robust and well organized team, and you have a recipe for success. I couldn’t quite convince myself to move them up a tier, but I consider them the team in Tier 4 with the best chance to move up.

New Zealand offers some intriguing possibilities. The Kiwis made an excellent signing, bringing in former Orlando coach Tom Sermanni, which may do quite a bit for their chances. Sermanni would be a great addition under any circumstances, but he’s probably the best possible option for the particular case here, with recent serious allegations of misconduct and mistreatment by the former coaching staff. Bringing in someone universally liked and respected like Sermanni may go a long way toward healing those wounds.

The final three teams in this tier will face a tougher road, given their likely draws. Based on their current rankings, they will probably be stuck in Pot 4, giving them a tougher draw than the others in this group. Still, there are reasons for hope in each case.

South Africa have taken major strides in recent years. Their NWSL contingent surprised many (myself included) in 2018 with their quality, and they are emblematic of renaissance in the South African system. This is their first World Cup, and they’ll be hoping to make a splash. That compares to their CAF compatriots, Nigeria, who have attended every World Cup so far (one of only seven teams to do so). Both have enough talent to challenge the more favored teams, but they’ll probably have to ride their luck a bit as well.

The last team is Chile. When I did an initial draft of these rankings at the end of the summer, I put Chile in the 5th tier. But with their recent victory over Chile, I’ve decided to move them up a rung. I certainly wouldn’t bet on them to rack up another famous victory in the tournament itself, but they’ve demonstrated a level of performance that makes them worthy of a more serious look.

Tier 5: No expectations and nothing to lose

Thailand, Jamaica, Argentina, Cameroon

These four teams are going to be in for a tough ride. While all will certainly hope to advance to the knockout stages, more realistically they should be willing to regard even managing one or two results as a satisfactory tournament.

Cameroon fans may object to being placed in a tier below their CAF counterparts. After all, they did take Nigeria to penalties in the only direct match-up between those squads. Plus, Cameroon made the knockout stage in 2016, so they’ll certainly have reason to hope for a repeat of that performance. Still, they have less obvious talent than the teams in the 4th tier, and there is little about their record in recent years to suggest they are quite at that level.

Thailand’s qualification was heavily aided by the peculiar AFC seeding process, which put them in a group with China, the Philippines, and Jordan, while Australia, Japan, and South Korea all fought it ought in the other group. Furthermore, North Korea was actually eliminated at an earlier stage, clearing out even more space in the competition. Still, they did what was necessary to make the cut, and did manage to take Australia to penalties in the semifinal, showing that they will hardly be pushovers.

Argentina’s intercontinental qualifying match-up against Panama showcased both the strengths of weaknesses of the team. A resounding 4-0 win in the home leg illustrated the potential of the team. But they struggled badly for much of the return leg and could easily have found themselves in some trouble if Panama had been able to finish a bit more clinically.

Finally, there’s Jamaica, who qualified via two famous victories, one over Costa Rica to edge into the knockout rounds, and another on penalties over Panama. Led by the prodigious talents of Bunny Shaw, they have a solid team that was good enough to push past the traditional secondary teams of CONCACAF to take a place at the final. But their performances against the US and Canada in that tournament showed just how wide the gulf still is between them and the true world powers.

So that’s it. Twenty-four teams, who will be competing for sixteen places in the knockout stage.

We’ll certainly know more once the draw is announced next week, at which point I’ll return with an assessment of whose paths got easier or harder. Given a straight seeding system, there shouldn’t be any true ‘group of death,’ but these things can make a difference at the margins.