Author: RJ Allen

Is Spain a Dark Horse or Overrated?

Posted on by RJ Allen

Something strange happened this spring. A team that most casual fans probably hadn’t given two thoughts were suddenly everyone’s favorite ‘dark horse’ for the World Cup. And it’s not hard to understand why. Spain has long been a sleeping giant of women’s soccer, full of potential that has never quite been realized. But in the past year, things have started to change. Barcelona advanced to the final of the Champions League, while Atlético Madrid took home their third straight league title, and drew 60,000 fans to a game in the process.

Meanwhile, the national team started to string together some genuinely impressive performances—often outplaying highly-regarded opponents like the US, Netherlands, and England—though not necessarily emerging with victories in the process.

And that’s the key thing. If Spain are really going to live up to their ‘dark horse’ moniker, they’ll need to start translating classy performances into concrete results. There’s no denying the talent on this team. The question is whether they’ll be able to make good on the potential this time around, or whether it will take another cycle for potential to become reality.

Spain is no stranger to this phenomenon. Their men’s side spent decades as a favorite of pundits who kept declaring them just about ready to take a step forward and join the inner circle. Eventually, it happened. The question is whether the women are on the cusp of a similar transition, or are merely at the beginning of a long and frustrating road.

Spain’s strengths are real…but so are their weaknesses

Spain’s strengths are obvious: technical ability, tactical awareness, smooth possession. The midfield duo of Vicky Losada and Alexia Putellas is among the very best at the tournament, and are fresh off working together to take their club team, Barcelona, to the Champions League final. Much has been made of Spain’s decision to part ways with Vero Boquete—their all-time leading scorer, and still an excellent player as made apparent by her recent performances with Utah Royals in the NWSL. But with Losada and Putellas, Spain is spoiled for options in central midfield.

Their principal target will be Jenni Hermoso, a top-level striker who has ben pouring in goals for Atletico. Hermoso is far more than a goal-poacher, and likes to play supplier herself, but Spain will probably do best if she sticks to a pure striker role, since they lack any other obvious goal-scoring threats. Their other best hope in an attacking role is Patricia Guijarro, a rising star in the game, but also someone just coming off injury, and who has not yet proved she is ready at the highest levels.

The result is a team with a lot of nice attacking options, but which won’t necessarily translate those into goals as often as they’d like. When everything is clicking, Spain move the ball with lightning speed through a series of one-touch passes, and it all looks as pretty as any nation in the world. The problem is: it doesn’t always click. And when it doesn’t, they lack the cutting edge to manufacture goals through more direct means. The result is a team that will inspire people with their beautiful play, but whose success may ultimately depend more on how effectively their defense can stifle the game.

And this is the dirty little secret of the case for Spain: even with all the beautiful passing, their greatest strength as a team is probably their defensive solidity. The key player here is Mapi León, a rising star in the global game, who was a huge part of Barcelona’s successful season. She is a superb defender, as well as an important link to the attack from her wide left position. They’ll also depend on players like Marta Torrejon, Irene Paredes, and Andrea Pereira to lock down the defense. But even with solid internationals across the back and in goal, Spain is ultimately not quite strong enough to hold off the very top teams on the ability of their defenders alone.  

That means that they’ll need to blend their strengths together—using possession primarily as a technique to deny the opposition the ball, and thereby deny them chances. The great danger is that they’ll allow themselves to be drawn forward, trying to dance the ball into the net, and leave themselves exposed.

How will Spain fare?

Spain have gone from underrated to overrated quickly enough to give you whiplash. No sooner had the ‘dark horse’ narrative begun to percolate than knowledgeable observers jumped in to push back, highlighting all the reasons to doubt their potential. All of which is fair. But at this point, the backlash might have exceeded the original claim, putting Spain right back into the underrated category.

Whether the metaphysics of their rating interest you, there’s no denying that Spain will be an exciting team to watch. Ultimately, 2019 is likely to end up being a bit too early for them. With a friendlier draw, they might well have advanced quite far, but they have very little margin for error now. If they can’t overcome Germany—one of the top teams in the world—the very best they probably can hope for is a Round of 16 draw against the United States, England, or Australia. That’s a lot to ask, and probably more than this team will be able to manage.

But don’t count them out just yet. There’s enough potential in this squad that if everything comes together, they could go a very long way.

The Game Changers: Week Eight

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Game Changers is a weekly series looking at the most important results each week. Each section will look at one team and how its win, loss, or draw impacts the season.

It is the kickoff week for the 2019 Women’s World Cup, but back in the United States, there is still plenty of NWSL action. On Saturday, the Washington Spirit earned a 2-0 victory over the Utah Royals, solidifying them in the No. 1 spot with 16 points in seven games. The North Carolina Courage went back to their winning ways in Orlando, and the Portland Thorns played at the newly refurbished Providence Park for the first time in 2019. Here is a full breakdown of this week’s results:

Washington Spirit vs. Utah Royals (2-0)

Orlando Pride vs. North Carolina Courage (0-3)

Reign FC vs. Houston Dash (1-1)

Portland Thorns vs. Chicago Red Stars (3-0)

The Washington Spirit earn another win.

Perhaps I shouldn’t be so surprised at this point, since it seems to happen every week. But on Saturday, the Washington Spirit earned their fourth win in a row. Ashley Hatch scored the first goal, decimating the Utah Royals defense as she spun around them and placed her shot in the far corner. Hatch set up the second goal as well, when her shot bounced off the post and landed at the feet of Dorian Bailey. Hatch now leads the team with three goals on the year.

The Spirit have already earned more points this season than they did in all of 2018. Richie Burke seems to be working out as their head coach, although as RJ Allen pointed out in her article “We Need To Talk About Richie Burke,” that’s a complicated situation. They are playing teams who have lost many international players to the World Cup, but the Spirit have lost their fair share as well, including Mallory Pugh, Rose Lavelle, Chloe Lagarzo, and Chenya Matthews.  It’s time to admit that the Spirit look legit.

The Portland Thorns reopen Providence Park in style.

After two months worth of road games, the Portland Thorns finally returned to Providence Park on Sunday following the stadium’s expansion. They started the scoring in the first half, with a 27th minute goal from Margaret Purce. Simone Charley sent her pass through the defenders and to the feet of Purce, who beat the goalkeeper and tapped the ball into the net. That same combo scored again a few minutes later, when Charley sent a cross to Purce, who redirected the ball into the net. They went into halftime with a 2-0, and in the second half, Thorns added to their tally with a late goal from Marissa Everett.

The Thorns have been pretty consistent during this time on the road, but they haven’t wowed us. This weekend, the Thorns impressed in Portland. They are looking like a team to watch, even without Christine Sinclair or Tobin Heath.

Chicago Red Stars drop points on the road. 

The Chicago Red Stars lost their second game in a row this weekend. They’re still 3-3-2, and the Portland Thorns are not easy opponents, so I’m not saying it’s time to panic for the Red Stars. They accumulated 28 shots against the Thorns, but weren’t able to find the back of the net. While the goals from the Thorns showed a good bit of skill, sometimes Chicago defense clearly just wasn’t sharp enough. It’s true that they are missing many important players, but they will have to collect points during this period if they expect to be in the playoff picture at the end of the year. 

The Red Stars have conceded the same amount of goals that they have scored in 2019. They also only have one clean sheet. But their only losses have come from the top three teams in the league– Washington, Portland, and Utah. I think the Chicago Red Stars are good enough to make the playoffs, but they need to make sure they don’t drop points while they’re missing their World Cup stars. 

 

 

Ten Players to Watch at the Women’s World Cup

Posted on by RJ Allen

Kicking off in just a few days, the 2019 Women’s World Cup features the deepest and most impressive field that we have ever seen. There are too many great players to count. Hopefully, you’ve read some previews of the big names, especially this fantastic one from Kim McCauley and the team at SB Nation. Those lists are full of players who will be the defining factor for their team–players like Sam Kerr, Christine Sinclair, Dzsenifer Marozsán, Asisat Oshoala, and so on. 

But there are a whole lot of players that won’t necessarily show up at the top of those lists, but who will still be critical contributors. I want to identify some of those names: the players who probably are not the key contributor for their team, but who still deserve a fair share of attention. 

Ashley Lawrence (Canada)

Canada’s Swiss army knife can play virtually anywhere and make a real difference. She has most commonly been used as a fullback, a role which highlights her defensive abilities and exceptional workrate. But she can also play as a wingback or wide midfielder, with more license to drift inward and playmake. And at times she even slots as a pure central attacker. That sort of flexibility is critical to a Canada team that strives for maximal tactical flexibility, often switching formations in midstream. With Lawrence able to move so freely into what role is needed, she gives them maximal capacity to adapt to circumstances without having to make a substitution.

Jennifer Beattie (Scotland)

Beattie will work with Rachel Corsie to form one of the most dependable central defensive pairings in the whole tournament. In addition to her stalwart defensive capabilities, Beattie may be even more important for her ability to play as a ‘modern’ center back. Her skill on the ball will allow Scotland to play a more expansive and possession-oriented game, and could be the key to getting their excellent attackers the time and space they need to work their magic.

Fran Kirby (England)

Kirby is a mercurial player, who often seems to drift out of games, and can be frustrating for fans to watch. But she’s also one of the smartest readers of the game in world soccer—a purveyor of impossible through balls and clever slipped passes, who pops up when you’ve almost forgotten about her, turns on a dime and settles the ball into the far corner. Against teams who will give them some space to play, Kirby could be the key difference-maker for England.

Becky Sauerbrunn (USA)

Sauerbrunn is opposite of a flashy player, with her strongest defensive skill being simple positional awareness. She rarely goes in for a last-ditch tackle because she’s already waiting there when the attack arrives. Her mission is to close things down before they ever have a chance to develop. On a team overloaded with attacking players, her ability to hold the defense together will be essential if they hope to make a deep run. She won’t get one-tenth of the coverage that some other US players will receive, but there might be no single player who is more critical to the team’s success than Sauerbrunn.

Sara Däbritz (Germany)

Always a wonderful playmaker, Däbrtiz has increasingly added goal-scoring to her arsenal, and has also developed into a far more physically resilient player. She’s got one of the best left foots in the game, and is coming off the best season of her career at Bayern Munich. She’s also just completed a transfer to Paris Saint-Germain for the upcoming season, which suggests a player ready to challenge herself at another level. Dzsenifer Marozsán deservedly gets all the headlines, but in Däbritz Germany have a second world-class midfielder, one who often flies unjustifiably under the radar for international audiences. But that may be about to change.

Alexia Putellas (Spain)

Putellas is one of those players who sees angles that no one else can find, weaving passes through gaps the size of a postage stamp. If Spain live up to their ‘dark horse’ potential in this tournament, Jenni Hermoso will likely be the one scoring the goals that help them get there. But Putellas will be the one further back, orchestrating the symphony that helps it all come together.

Konya Plummer (Jamaica)

The biggest story on this Jamaica team is Khadija Shaw. And for good reason. She’s a generational talent, and has every chance to become one of the great strikers in the game. But don’t sleep on Konya Plummer. Jamaica’s captain at the ripe old age of 21, Plummer is an excellent defender—a good ball-winner and a sturdy presence in the air—and will play a huge role in organizing the Jamaica defense. For a team that will likely spend much of the tournament without the ball, that may be the single most important role.      

Lina Hurtig (Sweden)

It’s not even certain that she’ll be able to play significant minutes, since she has struggled constantly with injuries. But if healthy, Hurtig might be the difference-maker. Sweden have long needed a creative wide player who can stretch the opposition and develop more sophisticated attacks. That’s Hurtig. If they get the best from her, they will likely also get much more from their strikers, helping provide the goals that might otherwise be in short supply.

Delphine Cascarino (France)

With less than a dozen caps, Cascarino is a relative newcomer to the French team, but she has already made a huge impression. The Lyon striker is coming off a breakout season with the best club team in the world, and has been able to parlay that into significant time with her country as well. Attacking from the wing, she brings pace and technical ability, as well as a clinical ability to put away chances. France is spoiled for options in the attack, but it certainly seems like Corinne Diacre will call on Cascarino quite a bit.

Yui Hasegawa (Japan)

Japan won the 2011 tournament and reached the final in 2015, but they’ve spent the past few years undertaking a significant overhaul. The youth revolution has left Japan looking far weaker that you’d expect from a World Cup finalist, but it has also breathed new life into the team. At just 22, Hasegawa has no experience with the great Japan teams of previous tournaments, but will also not weighed down by those expectations. Like most Japanese players, she is skillful on the ball. But unlike many of her compatriots, she also has a sharp cutting edge, and may provide some of the directness that Japan sometimes lacks.

We Put Too Many Expectations on Alex Morgan

Posted on by RJ Allen

Alex Morgan has over 100 caps and 100 games for her national team. She has a World Cup title. She’s has an Olympic gold medal at home too. And an NWSL title. And a Champions League title.

She has done pretty well for herself is what I’m saying.

But when I think of Alex Morgan’s greatest moments I think of 2011 and 2012. I think of the player who busted her way on to the scene with a slightly unusual gate and the ability to lift the world on her shoulders. That player was exciting to watch, that player made everyone else look a little bit slower and a little bit less good than they were.

I think of Morgan when all she had to be was really good at playing soccer.

But time and injury changed who she is on the pitch. She is no longer the young player who can play without major expectations on her shoulders. She is not the player with an older, more famous, more experienced forward alongside her. She is that forward now and all the weight of the world now rests on her. Every move is broken down, slowed down, fast forwarded and watched over and over by millions of people.

Don’t get me wrong, expectations are fine as long as they are reasonable. But when they reach the level that no one would be able to meet them they became a stone around a player’s neck.

Morgan has the fate of the game on her shoulders in ways that seem impossible for anyone to come out from under. And oh my do heavy expectations seem to cling to Morgan. She has to be the role model that everyone can relate to and she has to be flawless in front of HD cameras and she has to score all the biggest goals and she has to lead equal pay lawsuits. We expect too much and come down too hard when those expectations aren’t met.

The crazy thing is just how much less we expect out of male athletes. Sure we expect the best forwards to score goals when their team needs them. We expect on the field things. But do we really expect Messi to look flawless on camera or to champion issues off of the field? No, we expect him to play soccer. He is afforded the luxury of just being able to have one job. Play soccer really, really well and make an obscene amount of money doing it.

I don’t think many people will argue with the fact that 2015 was not the best tournament Morgan has ever had. It’s not even the best World Cup tournament Morgan has ever had. She was coming off an injury and there were so many other story lines around that 2015 team. It was a team defined by Abby Wambach finally get her title and Lauren Holiday retiring and Carli Lloyd’s hat trick. It was a tournament that became catharsis for a team that hadn’t gotten it done in 16 years.

But 2019? Sure, there is the storyline of if the US can go back-to-back but largely people are putting those hopes on Morgan. Yes, players like Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath, Mal Pugh and Christen Press are going to get articles written about them and we will see footage of Ertz and Horan broken down to the point of madness. But Morgan is now the starting center forward on a team that are the favorites in the World Cup. Even if she wasn’t Alex Morgan that is going to come with pressure. Because she is, there is even more added on.

I hope Morgan plays well. I hope she scores a lot of goals. I hope she finds the form that we’ve seen flashes of her whole career. I hope most of all I don’t see 10 pieces written about how her legacy is forever diminished if she is merely good, merely solid, merely human after the final game is played.

Reports of Germany’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Posted on by RJ Allen

They somehow seem to be flying a little under the radar, but Germany are very very good.

Germany had a rough 2017. There’s no pretending otherwise. Coming off an Olympic gold medal the previous summer, they were flying high. But 2017 was a descent into the depths. The biggest moment came in the quarterfinals of European Championship, when the Germans were knocked out by Denmark. Not only was this Germany’s earliest exit, it was the first time they had lost a knockout game in the competition since 1993. That game ended a run of six consecutive titles. But if that wasn’t enough, they then proceeded to lose to Iceland in the early stages of World Cup qualifying.

All of a sudden Germany, one of the titans of the game, were on the ropes. Steffi Jones, hired after the Olympic victory, was shown the door after less than 18 months on the job. The team seemed listless and uncertain. And while results did turn around under interim coach Horst Hrubesch, that early loss to Iceland left Germany still unsure of qualification all through 2018.

But they did qualify, and ultimately with relative ease. The three goals they conceded against Iceland in November 2017 turned out to be the only goals they allowed in the whole campaign, ending up with 38 goals scored to just 3 against. And with the arrival of Martina Voss-Tecklenburg, they also have a permanent coach. While it remains to be seen how she will structure the team over the long run, it increasingly seems like the lull during the Jones era was a blip rather than the new normal. So when considering the strength of this Germany team, it’s probably wiser to look at the underlying talent. And, well, there’s a lot of talent.

We’ve grown accustomed to pre-tournament hype for Dzsenifer Marozsán, but familiarity should not become the enemy of wonder. Marozsán really is phenomenal, and she’s arguably better right now than at any other point in her career. And it’s not just Marozsán. From top to bottom, the German midfield is absolutely lights out. Consider Sara Däbritz, one of the most technically gifted players in the world, who can pirouette around tackles, and drop inch-perfect balls behind the defense. Then add the always-reliable Melanie Leupolz to keep the keel steady, not to mention versatile players like Linda Dallmann and Lina Magull. Need experience to shore things up in a rough game? Bring in veteran Lena Goeßling. Need youthful energy? Giulia Gwinn is not yet 20, but already looks like a world class player.

This German midfield is outrageously good, and matches up favorably against any other team in the tournament.

The other lines aren’t quite as strong, but it’s not like there are slouches in any of these positions. At forward, Germany certainly doesn’t possess the sort of game-changing player who can put the team on her back. But given their diverse attacking talent, they don’t really need one. Instead, Alexandra Popp and Lea Schüller will generally serve as the central point around which the attack will orbit—dropping back to bring in the midfield, drawing defenders out of space so that fluid attacks may develop, and then stepping up to convert the chances that result.

They seem most likely to default to a single-striker formation, with Popp the likely starter. But Schüller is in such good form that they may shift things to allow them both to play. In their tune-up match against Chile, for example, Schüller played out wide, giving her a slightly different look at the attack.

To the extent that there is a genuine weakness in the squad, it’s in the defense. Like many top teams, they lack a truly world-class goalkeeper, with Almuth Schult having endured a tough year (including a serious case of the measles). The backline is also not necessarily set, having seen quite a bit of experimentation over the past year, including shifts between a back three and back four. Some consistent names have appeared: Sara Doorsoun, Verena Schweers, Kathrin Hendrich. But there has also been a lot of movement, with some of the midfield depth options occasionally being dropped back into defensive roles.

This is certainly a place where Germany’s relative lack of recent matches (they’ve only played four in 2019, compared to a team like the US who have played 10) may prove a hinderance. With more time, Voss-Tecklenburg might have had a chance to solidify her defensive structure. That said, there’s also a case for freshness. Things haven’t had a chance to grow stale yet, and positions haven’t calcified. That may give the coach more freedom to adapt to events and to the opposition.

Put it all together and you have a squad that is on par with supposed frontrunners like the US and France. There are weaknesses, certainly, and Germany probably do deserve to be considered a half-step behind the favorites. But only a half-step. This team is really good. So if you’re still thinking about them as the struggling side that stumbled into 2018, you’re well behind the times.

France at the World Cup: Could This Be The Year?

Posted on by RJ Allen

In less than a week, France will kickoff the 2019 Women’s World Cup as the host nation, playing their opening match against South Korea in Paris. The French National Team, or Les Bleues as they’re known, are one of the favorites to win the tournament. But what do we know about the French team and how much of a chance do they really have to walk away with the title?

France is currently No. 4 in the FIFA World Rankings. They have been one of the best squads in the world for a while, despite having never won a major title (unless you count the SheBelieves Cup). Their best finish at the World Cup was fourth place in 2011. But they will be motivated to prove themselves on home soil, especially after suffering a devastating defeat to Germany in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 tournament.

Since that last tournament, France has brought on a new head coach and lost some of their biggest stars to retirement. Corinne Diacre became France’s head coach in 2017. She led the national team as a defender and team captain during her playing career, making 121 appearances for France between 1993 and 2005. She also made history as the first woman to coach a men’s competitive match in France when she took charge of second-tier side Clermont in 2014.

Some of the big names that won’t be gracing the pitch for France this year include Louisa Necib, Camile Abilly, Elodie Thomis, Laure Boulleau, and Laura Georges. They have a combined total of close to 700 appearances for France, with Georges sitting at No. 2 all time (behind Sandrine Soubeyrand with 198 caps). Those are some big losses for France, but where there are players retiring, there are youngsters ready to fill their shoes.

The team’s biggest names all play for Olympique Lyon, who won their fourth consecutive Champions League title last month. At 6’2, Wendie Renard is a dominant force in the central defense. She has captained this team before but has recently passed those honors off to Amandine Henry. This season, she led a Lyon defense that allowed just 11 goals across all matches in the 2018-2019 campaign. She will be joined in the defense by her Lyon teammate Amel Majri, who is naturally a midfielder but has been playing at left back in recent years. Majri is a difference maker for the French squad and was sorely missed in their 2017 Euro’s tournament. If she can stay healthy, she will be a huge asset to this French side.

Amandine Henry, the current captain for France, is the best midfielder on the French team and one of the best midfielders in the world. She spent two years playing for the Portland Thorns in the NWSL before joining Lyon. While she plays as a defensive midfielder, she always plays a critical role in the attack as well. Gaetane Thiney made the World Cup roster, despite those who thought the 2015 tournament would be her last. She will be looking to redeem herself after missing an easy goal that would have taken France through to the semi-finals in 2015.

Eugenie Le Sommer has long been the leader of the attack for France. She has 74 goals in 159 caps with France and 163 goals in 175 appearances with Lyon. Despite her creativity, Le Sommer and the French attack have historically had problems finishing. Two players to keep an eye on for France are two of the younger strikers Head Coach Corinne Diacre has included in the roster: Delphine Cascarino and Valerie Gauvin. Gauvin has five goals in France’s last seven friendlies, while Cascarino scored a brace against Denmark.

One notable absence from the French roster is Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who has scored 53 goals in 57 appearances for PSG since she joined the squad in 2015. Katoto had an inconsistent year, putting on a poor performance for PSG in Champions League competition, but Diacre’s decision apparently stemmed from her belief that the 20-year-old striker lacks focus and wasn’t ready for the world’s biggest stage.

The key for France will be finishing their chances. Despite having some of the best attacking players in the world, France’s failure in big moments has always come from not finishing. The opportunity for France to win the title this year, a year after the men won their title, on home soil is indescribable. But France also tends to underperform, to cave to the pressure in big moments. Will they be able to overcome that tendency and become the first country to ever hold the men’s and women’s titles simultaneously? Only time will tell.

World Cup Power Rankings: Betting Odds Edition

Posted on by RJ Allen

There have been a lot of power rankings out there for the World Cup. I even wrote one myself back when the field was first established. And I encourage you to go check out the various cases from the experts. But there’s another time-honored way of assessing the odds: looking at what the bookies think.  After all, when hard cash is on the table, there’s a serious incentive to get things right.

As we’ll see, that incentive does depend on significant trading. When small amounts are on the table, there isn’t enough incentive for the big traders to swoop in and correct the market, and mistakes will endure. So don’t take this as definitive—merely as one way among many others to assess the odds.

Implied odds of winning the World Cup

So here are the implied probabilities of winning the tournament, based on betting odds:

France 20
USA 20
Germany 13
England 11
Netherlands 5
Japan 5
Brazil 5
Australia 3
Canada 3
Spain 3
Sweden 3
Norway 2
China 1
Italy 1
New Zealand 1
South Korea 1
Scotland 1
Argentina 0
Chile 0
South Africa 0
Jamaica 0
Nigeria 0
Cameroon 0
Thailand 0

These numbers reflect a composite view from four different betting companies (bet365, skybet, William Hill, and betfair) listed at Oddschecker. Importantly, these are not the actual percentages at which you could make a bet. Instead, these are the implied probabilities once the odds are re-weighted on a 100% scale. For example, you’d only actually make $3.50 on a one dollar bet on the US, even though the odds suggest it would be $4, because the betting company has set their odds so that they’re only required to pay out one dollar for every 1.4 dollars coming in.

With that caveat in mind, we can still use these implied probabilities to make a rough assessment of what bettors think of the various teams. And for the most part, the answer is: they agree with the pundits. But there are a few exceptions.

Outside the top two, about which almost everyone seems to agree, many might put Australia and the Netherlands next, rather than Germany and England as reflected in the betting markets. And there are a few head scratchers–teams that seem to be getting credit for results in the distant rear-view mirror.

Crowdsourcing the odds

To dig into the differences a little more, I ran a series of twitter polls in early May, based on the betting odds at the time. The numbers have changed slightly since then, but not enough to make much of a difference. In the polls, I asked readers to decide whether they would buy or sell based on the implied probabilities. In most cases, things were within a fairly narrow band from 33%-66%–precisely what you’d expect if the odds were set well. But there were a few exceptions, which are worth digging into.

First, 67% preferred to buy the US at a 19% chance, while 68% wanted to buy France at those same odds. That suggests that the favorites might be slightly stronger than bettors currently think. 

Lower down, a healthy 77% wanted to sell Japan at 5%. That seems reasonable to me. Japan were a regular participant in the finals of the big tournaments in the first half of the decade, which might bring them some cache. But those teams are long gone, and it would be quite surprising if this Japan repeated those performances. Similarly, 79% wanted to sell Norway at 2%. Now, a 2% chance is extremely small. It means that Norway would win once if they played this tournament fifty times. But based on the team Norway is bringing, that probably does feel optimistic.

But the biggest margin, by quite a ways, was the 90% who wanted no part of Brazil, even at 4% odds. Again, the legacy of Brazil might be influencing the betting line. Because this Brazil team isn’t even a shadow of their former greatness. I make it a habit to never bet against Marta, but I think you can make an exception here.

Conclusions: How do the markets help us?

As I noted above, these discrepancies don’t necessarily mean that there is easy money to be made here. After all, even if the odds are ‘wrong’ about Australia, and they actually have a 20% chance, that still means that 80% of the time you’ll lose your money. Plus, given the way the odds are stacked, the bookmakers are almost certain to rake in big profits regardless of what happens. You might beat the crowds, but you’ll rarely beat the house.

And yet, looking at the odds can help us think through the tournament in useful ways. For one thing, the sheer range of options is worth noting. There are definitely favorites, but even if you combine the chances of the US and France winning, it barely reaches 40%. That means it’s odds-on that someone who wasn’t a ‘favorite’ wins the tournament.

This is also a reason to be careful about drawing too many conclusions at the end of the tournament. The winner will deserve all the accolades they receive, but let’s not forget that there’s a great deal of randomness here. Victory is never foreordained. It takes real work, real skill, real performances on the field to take home the title. But it also takes some luck.

This also helps illustrate just how hard it is to put together a string of knockout victories against tough competition. The US Women’s National Team in 2019 is probably the best squad that this country has ever assembled. If not, it’s extremely close. Even so, in four of five worlds, they go home unsatisfied. 

All of which is to say: it’s a very different world now than it was in the tournaments of the 1990s, or even the 2000s. The game has grown, talent has spread, and victory is much harder to come by. That significantly increases the likelihood of failure by the best teams. But it should also make victory taste that much sweeter for whichever team is lucky enough to make it to the top of the hill.

A Quick Overview of the Women’s World Cup Groups

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Women’s World Cup is just a few days away. To help you prepare I’ve put together a quick guide to the six different groups.

Just one note before we get started. When identifying players to watch, I did look to provide an NWSL spin if possible. And some teams, oh my was it hard to pick just one.

Let’s get going, shall we?

Group A

Teams:
        France
        Nigeria
        Norway
        South Korea

The Favorite: France. They’ve been consistently ranked top 3 in the world and the event is happening in their country.

The Underdog: Nigeria has featured in every Women’s World Cup there has been. While they may not beat France they still likely get out and could play spoiler down the road.

Players to watch:
        Amandine Henry – France
        Francisca Ordega – Nigeria
        Emilie Haavi – Norway
        Lim Seon-joo – South Korea

Key match of the Group: France vs Nigeria on June 17.

Group B

Teams:
      China PR
      Germany
      South Africa
      Spain

The Favorite: The two-time Women’s World Cup winning Germany have to be the favorites. They’ve got a solid team, as they always do, heading into the 2019 event.

The Underdog: Spain may have a much better chance of winning a few games than people give them credit for. They could find a groove and do themselves proud.

Players to watch:
      Wang Shuang – China PR
      Dzsenifer Marozsán – Germany
      Linda Motlhalo – South Africa
      Alexia Putellas – Spain

Key match of the Group: Germany vs Spain on June 12.

Group C

Teams:
      Australia
      Brazil
      Italy
      Jamaica

The Favorite: If Australia doesn’t win this group it will be shocking.

The Underdog: Jamaica has one of the best stories of in the whole tournament, and the potential to back it up with some good results. Good things might be in their future.

Players to watch:
      Sam Kerr – Australia
      Marta – Brazil
      Sara Gama – Italy
      Khadija “Bunny” Shaw – Jamaica

Key match of the Group: Brazil vs Jamaica on June 9. If Jamaica can get one or three points here, it will be huge.

Group D

Teams:
      Argentina
      England
      Japan
      Scotland

The Favorite: Some might say England and some might say Japan. I am going with England.

The Underdog: Scotland is at their first Women’s World Cup, but they’ve got plenty of World Cup level talent on their roster. It’s a tough group, but they have a good chance of getting out.

Players to watch:
      Estefanía Banini – Argentina
      Lucy Bronze – England
      Rumi Utsugi – Japan
      Kim Little – Scotland

Key match of the Group: England vs Scotland on June 9. Can Scotland get a point or three and turn the group on its head?

Group E

Teams:
      Cameroon
      Canada
      Netherlands
      New Zealand

The Favorite: This is Canada’s group to lose.

The Underdog: The Netherlands aren’t a total underdog, but they don’t have the sort of historical success as Canada. 

Players to watch:
      Estelle Johnson – Cameroon
      Christine Sinclair – Canada
      Lieke Martens – Netherlands
      Ali Riley – New Zealand

Key match of the Group: The Canada vs Netherlands match on June 20 decides who takes the group.

Group F

Teams:
      Chile
      Sweden
      Thailand
      United States

The Favorite: If the United States doesn’t win this group it will be one of the biggest shocks in the opening rounds.

The Underdog: Sweden did beat the United States in the 2016 Olympics though.

Players to watch:
      Christiane Endler – Chile
      Hedvig Lindahl – Sweden
      Duangnapa Sritala – Thailand
      Julie Ertz – United States

Key match of the Group: The United States is going to have a pretty easy opening two matches. But the Sweden match could be a defining moment.

A Beginners Guide to the Women’s World Cup

Posted on by RJ Allen

The World Cup is the biggest event in global soccer, and it brings in a lot of fans who don’t necessarily spend a lot of time or energy thinking about the game in between the big events. But it can sometimes feel a little overwhelming trying to catch up on months or years of information that have passed by since the last time you checked in.

If you fall into that category, this is the guide for you. It will give you a quick rundown on the tournament, and provide a few helpful tidbits to let you join in on the conversation.

Where is it happening?

The tournament is in France this year, with games spread across eight venues. The opening match will kick off in Paris, which will also host several more group stage games and a couple knockout matches. Other cities like Nice, Reims, Valenciennes, and Le Havre will host matches in the group stages and first two knockout rounds. At that point, all eyes will turn to Lyon, which will host the semifinal and finals in the last week of the tournament.

Because the tournament is in France, the games will mostly take place in the late morning and early afternoon for most US viewers–which is a pretty good time to watch soccer!

How can I watch it?

Soccer is more fun in big groups, so find your favorite local watering hole and ask them to put it on. If that fails, you can also watch at home, with every game being broadcast on Fox, FS1, or FS2, and will also be available in Spanish on Telemundo and Universo. And on the principle that soccer is more fun in groups, if there’s no local establishment you’d like to visit, you could always put together a watch party at home. 

For those cord-cutters out there, everything is also available through streaming services like fuboTV.

Who are the favorites to win the tournament?

  • The United States are defending champions, and have a strong chance to win again this time. There’s been some turnover since 2015, but most of the core of the old team is still around, supplemented with some important new contributors. This squad is deep and very strong.
  • Co-favorites are France. It would be a first-time title for the team, almost exactly two decades after their male counterparts accomplished the same thing on home soil in 1998. This French team is as good as they’ve ever had.
  • Germany are two-time winners (2003 and 2007), and the defending Olympic champions. They haven’t had a great last couple years, but things seem to be falling into line at the right time. They will be strong contenders.
  • Australia are the newest of new kids on the block. They have a core of young players who have grown together over the past decade, and with Sam Kerr, they’ve got arguably the best player in the world leading their line.
  • Honorable mentions: England continue to develop and could pose a real threat. The Netherlands are the defending European champions and have an impressive attacking array. This is likely Christine Sinclair’s final World Cup, and Canada will do everything they can to boost her to the final. And it’s never wise to count Japan out, even if they don’t look as strong these days.

Some key storylines to follow

  • Broken record. Christine Sinclair has scored 181 goals in her illustrious career, leaving her just three behind Abby Wambach’s record of 184. It would be a fitting capstone on the career of an all-time great to break the record in her final World Cup.
  • A deadly quarterfinal. If the United States and France both win their groups, they will be on a collision course for a quarterfinal showdown between the two tournament favorites. It would take place on June 28 in Paris, in front of 50,000 fans.
  • The Sam Kerr wrecking tour. There are several players with a case for being the best in the world right now, but in my opinion Sam Kerr is the first among equals. She’s led both the NWSL (United States) and W-League (Australia) in scoring in both of the past two seasons. If her form continues, this could be a performance for the ages.

Five group stage games that are worth watching

If you can only catch a few games, here are some that will be most likely to give you some serious bang for your buck:

  • France vs. South Korea. June 7. The opening match of the tournament, held at the Parc des Princes in Paris. The atmosphere should be raucous, as Les Bleus look to start things off with a bang.
  • England vs. Scotland. June 9. The oldest rivalry in soccer gets another new chapter in the book. England will be the favorites, but don’t sleep on this Scotland team. You’ll want to pay particular attention to Kim Little—one of the world’s best players finally given a chance to shine on the biggest stage with her country.
  • Germany vs. Spain. June 12. Germany are one of the best teams in the world, and Spain are a rising power. Whoever wins this group will gain a relatively easy slot in the elimination bracket. Whoever finishes second will probably have to play the United States.
  • Netherlands vs. Canada. June 20. Two excellent teams that will likely be playing to see who gets to top the group. Canada are a defensive stalwart, while the Dutch have one of the most exciting attacks in world soccer. Which will come out on top?
  • Sweden vs. United States. June 20. Two classic rivals facing off in the final slot of the group stages. They’ll not only be fighting to top the group, but there will also be an element of revenge, after Sweden bounced the US out of the Olympics in 2016.

Who should I support?

Support whoever you like, and don’t mind anyone who says otherwise! There are exciting stories with every single team in the tournament, and plenty to root for in every case. But if you still aren’t sure, here’s a short guide to provide some assistance:

  • If your favorite teams are the New York Yankees, Golden State Warriors, New England Patriots, and Real Madrid, then you should support the United States.
  • If you want to jump on a bandwagon, you should support Australia.
  • If you want to jump on a slightly hipper bandwagon, you should support Spain.
  • If you’re so hip that you only want to support a team if everyone else is jumping off the bandwagon, you should support Brazil.
  • If you want to support a team making their first appearance in the tournament (and you should!), you should support one of Chile, Jamaica, Scotland, or South Africa. My personal tip is Jamaica, but they’re all great.
  • If you want to see your team play beautiful soccer, you should support Japan.
  • If you want to support an African team with a chance to make a deep run, you should support Nigeria.
  • If you want to boisterously sing a great national anthem after a victory, you should support France.

But, again, there aren’t any wrong answers here. All the teams are well-deserving of some love.

Who should I follow to stay up to date?

I will be covering the tournament from France, and you’re certainly welcome to follow along with me at @olneyce. But assuming you want a wider range, there are some excellent lists of recommended follows provided by our friends Jacob Cristobal, Sophie Lawson, RJ Allen, and Kim McCauley.

I’m enjoying the World Cup so much, and I’m sad it will be over soon

You’re in luck! Almost everyone participating in the World Cup also plays in their domestic leagues. If you want to see more Sam Kerr, Crystal Dunn, and Christine Sinclair, you can tune into the National Women’s Soccer League – with games going on right through the World Cup and continuing on immediately after. And many other leagues around the world will start back up at the end of summer. There’s a world of great women’s soccer out there, just waiting for your attention!