Author: RJ Allen

The Unused Sub: The Power of Words

Posted on by RJ Allen

This week’s installment has a lot of words for once.

AND SO THE MALLORY PUGH ERA IS UPON US

It started last Saturday with The Decision 2.0. Mallory Pugh was on the NWSL Game of the Week pre-show and made it official that she was joining the Washington Spirit and thus embarking on her professional soccer career. I’ll spare you the brief chat I had with someone at my day job yesterday who read about Pugh’s decision. It was the tired trope of, “She should stay in school!”

Naw, kid, get your money when you can, when it’s hot.

Of course, by the time it was made official on television, everyone knew about it. And by Saturday night, people may have forgotten about it because her team the Washington Spirit got absolutely demolished by the Seattle Reign FC. After the Spirit claimed a penalty, the Reign went to 11 and went on a four-goal, ten minute roughshod led by Nahomi Kawasumi who set a NWSL single-game record with four assists. FOUR. To think in the short history of the NWSL, we’ve seen some bonkers lopsided scorelines, yet at best from those games, a player would only have two assists at most. Then you had Kawasumi go gangbusters and claim four for herself.

A lot of eyes are going to be on Washington’s matchup against FC Kansas City this weekend. Pugh likely will make her debut – it’s just a matter of how much time she’ll see on the field. How much of an impact will she bring; will it be immediate or will it take the rookie time? It’s easy for me being on the other end of the country to say this, let’s just sit back and enjoy the ride. Let’s try not to anoint her as the second coming of anything for women’s soccer.

Let’s just sit back and let Mallory Pugh soccer play how Mallory Pugh only knows how she approaches the game. She’s going to do some cool shit stuff, and she’s going to struggle. She might put the Spirit on her back and be enough of an impact to win a match for the team. She might be completely shut out and rendered invisible on a field. We’ll have plenty of time to over-discuss and over-analyze how the professional debut of Mallory Pugh went, if it is this weekend, but the bottom line is it’s going to be an exciting moment for her (most importantly), the NWSL, and everyone that follows it – fan and media alike. So let’s just sit back and enjoy the moment.

WE HAD A DISCUSSION ABOUT DOUBLE STANDARDS AND HOO BOY WERE JIMMIES RUSTLED

When it was announced that Reign FC defender Merritt Mathias was suspended (rightfully) for violent conduct on the field, for some reason it brought on armchair psychologists suggesting she has anger issues and should go see someone about it.

A few of us raised an eyebrow over this apparent diagnosing from Internet comments. Stephanie Yang did a guest piece in Sounder At Heart on the overall narrative that somehow, for whatever reason female athletes are held to some higher standard than male athletes. The idea that female athletes aren’t allowed to get angry, and that it’s a double standard. Oh boy, did some people’s jimmies get rustled at that idea and they doubled-down on that yeah, “Mathias should get her head checked.”

Let me be clear in saying this: STOP. DOING. THAT. PEOPLE.

When Mathias and Stephanie McCaffery or any other female athlete gets angry on the field, it could very well be that they are just getting angry/lost in the moment.

When a quarterback berates a receiver because they dropped the ball, no one ever says that the quarterback “has anger issues” or should “act with more class.” They say the cliche thing of, “Oh he’s just a leader demanding perfection from his teammates.” When a baseball pitcher throws a retaliation pitch because the batter in the previous meeting hit a homer off them, no one suggests they have a problem with holding grudges and “should go talk to someone about it.” They cite “the unwritten rules of baseball” that apparently state a pitcher is entitled to throw a 95 MPH fastball (which science says has the force impact equivalent to a gun) at the batter because “they admired the homer.”

Female athletes are allowed to show as many emotions as their male counterparts do and they should be allowed to display them, without some further discussion as if there’s some underlying element. And if that emotion is negative – let it be. DO NOT SPECULATE THAT IT’S RELATED TO THAT PERSON’S MENTAL STATE ESPECIALLY IF YOU DO NOT KNOW THEM PERSONALLY.

The fact that people doubled-down on it and thought it was okay is just baffling. It’s disingenuous and incredibly dangerous. Seriously, how would you feel if whatever you did for a living was subjected to internet comments and a moment or two where you lost your cool and got angry, those behind a monitor & keyboard, total strangers, were questioning your mental health like that? Not a good feeling yeah?

DON’T. DO. IT. PLEASE.

SO ABOUT NAHOMI KAWASUMI

When you make NWSL history like she did on Saturday night, you get Player of the Week honors. This is the fourth time in her NWSL career that she has won that honor and puts her solely in second place on the all-time list of winning that honor. Crystal Dunn has the most so far in the award’s existence with six. And yes, she won all six of those during the 2015 season – yep, that season from her was that magical.

I’m going make a bold prediction regarding this: Nahomi Kawasumi will surpass Crystal Dunn as the player with most NWSL Player of the Week Honors.

It could be the Japanese international that gets behind the wheel and leads the Reign FC offense the way Kim Little did for the three seasons she was here. Yes, the team as a whole needs to string consecutive performances where they’re an absolute buzz-saw and I think this weekend’s matchup against Orlando will be another one. And I think Kawasumi will play a big factor in that. If Kawasumi goes on a run in the league, last Saturday’s outing against the Spirit could be the genesis of it.

So yes, she’s at four NWSL Player of the Week honors after this week’s announcement and I think there’ll be at least three more weeks where she takes it this season.

If you’re a Reign FC fan, you gotta love the sound of Rollin’ with the Homi to hopefully back into the NWSL Playoffs.

HOW MANY MINUTES WILL MALLORY PUGH PLAY – ONLY A GAMBLING SYNDICATE IN ASIA KNOWS

Here are this week’s predictions:

  • Boston Breakers OVER Portland Thorns FC.
  • Sky Blue FC OVER Houston Dash.
  • Washington Spirit and FC Kansas City play to a DRAW.
  • North Carolina Courage and Chicago Red Stars play to a DRAW.
  • Seattle Reign FC OVER Orlando Pride.

That last game is going to be a doozy. I think this is where Seattle strings consecutive performances of being the buzz-saw that people will remember. Orlando will get a goal but in the grand picture, it won’t matter much as Reign will continue to be in onslaught mode. Can I gripe at the Sunday evening start time? It’s cutting into my WWE Pay Per View event watching – I’m going to go write to my congressman about it cramping my style; after I attend the match of course.

Anywho, here’s this week’s music video break.

Song: “Information” | Artist: Eliot Sumner

Route Two Soccer – Updating Our Priors

Posted on by RJ Allen

I’ve been traveling this week and haven’t had a chance to catch most of the games yet. So in lieu of diagramming a specific match, I wanted to take a broader perspective—taking stock of the league and the teams now that we’re just about 20% through the season.

The NWSL season so far: we haven’t learned as much as we think we have

The persistent problem here (as with every attempt to analyze a complicated system) is the overwhelming force of randomness. Even when probabilities are set in stone, the actual distribution of results is subject to significant fluctuation. For example, if I flip a coin 10 times, I’d expect to get an equivalent number of heads and tails. And indeed, that’s the most likely result. But I’ll only actually get that specific result about one time in four. 40% of the time I’ll get a 6/4 distribution, one way or the other. And almost a third of the time, I’ll get something outside that range.

Point being: you’re often going to get results that look wildly out of line from your expectation. The issue is how to explain this effect. And there are (broadly speaking) three different possibilities:

  1. Sheer random variance. Perhaps we’re just in one of the 33% of worlds where heads came up at a disproportionate rate.
  2. Something has changed. The coin used to be weighted evenly, but due to some unanticipated effect, it has changed. In this case, we should expect results to remain on this new course.
  3. The initial prediction was wrong. Maybe the results are entirely in line with the true probability. It was simply our own misperception that led us to assign the wrong chance to the event.

Depending on which of these is correct, our expectations going forward will shift pretty significantly. So it’s actually quite important to put new information into context and assess where it leaves us now. And the unfortunate reality is that, as human beings, we are often desperate to impose narrative meaning onto randomness. We might know intellectually that it’s perfectly plausible for a coin to come up heads 8 times out of 10, but in our guts we’ll start to wonder if maybe the coin is lucky.

There have been countless studies of this effect, in everything from sports to weather to financial portfolios. Our natural inclination is to over-interpret the significance of the most recent data points and assume that it creates a new trendline which will proceed indefinitely.

Far more likely, though, is that unlikely outliers are just that: outliers. In that case, we should expect reversion to the mean. As time goes on, as we collect more data, results will trend back toward their expected performance and the outliers will be washed out by the accumulation of data.

By way of example, look to North Carolina who appeared to be unbeatable, right up until they lost. Going into the game, with Carolina riding high and Orlando stuck at the bottom of the table, that result may have seemed unlikely. But you only have to go back a month to find quite a few predicting Orlando and Carolina to be in close competition for a playoff spot. Based on that, Orlando winning at home would be thoroughly unsurprising.

But we have learned some things

All that said, while it’s important to not treat recent results as fully dispositive, we also don’t want to dig in too aggressively. After all, even if reversion to the mean is the most likely explanation for an outlier, that doesn’t mean that we know what the mean is.

The point, after all, isn’t that every result is literally random (that in a given match, every team is as likely to win as to lose). The ‘mean’ is simply the most likely result for a given team. For a good team, over time that might stabilize around 2 points per game. For a terrible team, it might stabilize at 0.5 points per game.

The question is how much five games should change our expectations. And this is where qualitative work becomes more important.

When you’ve got a well-designed model, that has been rigorously tested and analyzed, it will often beat expert predictions, even without the ability to draw ‘thick’ qualitative inferences—simply by virtue of processing power.

But, as we all know, soccer is a complicated game, involve a lot of moving parts. And beyond that, the sort of complex modeling that has been developed in some men’s sports simply doesn’t exist for women’s soccer.

The closest we’ve got for the NWSL is the prediction system at Fivethirtyeight, which appears to be a relatively ‘dumb’ model. That is to say: it knows baseline results but not much else. That’s not a terrible thing, since even with a ‘dumb’ model, you’ll generally get a reasonable assessment. It may be dumb, but that is precisely what keeps it from over-correcting sometimes.

Still, while regressing to the mean is a good starting point, you don’t want to completely ignore the information that you can glean from actually watching the games. After all, we’re all familiar with games where one team dominates but ends up losing from one unlucky bounce, or games when a team creates a ton of chances and just can’t manage to finish. The result is ultimately what matters the most, of course. But for predictive purposes, there is a lot more to a game than just the final scoreline. This is one of the key insights of expected goals.

Alright, so how should we interpret events so far?

My default is to approach things from the perspective of Bayesian inference. We build initial predictions based on the best available evidence and then determine how confident we are in those guesses. These are our priors.

As new information filters in, we assess how it comports with our priors. If our priors were strong, we can regard a modest disconnect as perfectly acceptable, requiring no meaningful update of the prediction. Even very good teams play poorly now and again, and we can safely regard this as just the sort of normal variation that comes with a game that includes significant elements of chance.

In cases of weak priors, new information will be more highly valued, since it can help to ease the fog of uncertainty. However, even here it’s important to remember that small sample sizes are inherently unstable. If you were unsure about the quality of a team a month ago, that should likely remain the dominant theme of your analysis.

The key point here is: if your perspective on a team has shifted significantly after five games, you’re probably overestimating the significance of those games and underplaying the importance of all the work that went into the initial prediction. Over the long term, good predictions should be pretty stick—not shifting too quickly except in relatively rare cases of genuine major transformation.

Updating our priors

Taking all that into account, let me walk through a few of the main priors that were widely (but by no means universally) shared going into this season, to see how they’re faring.

  1. Portland, Chicago, and North Carolina as likely playoff teams

Everything still looks good on this front. Neither Portland nor Chicago has yet played particularly well, but they remain at the top of the table. It would be a decent bet to assume both will play better going forward and draw a bit further from the crowd.

Meanwhile, North Carolina has outperformed the other two, and has been widely regarded as the class of the league so far. And through five games, that has been true. Whether we expect that to continue for the next 19 is more of an open question. The weaknesses diagnosed before the season for them haven’t gone away, so it would be at least a little bit surprising if they continued to pace the league by such a large margin.

  1. Washington, Boston, and Houston as challengers for the bottom

These three were generally regarded as the weakest of the league. So far, nothing we’ve seen from Washington or Houston argues strongly against that premise. Both have shown flashes of quality, but both have also struggled mightily.

Boston, however, have been the darlings of league so far, and are being discussed as a legitimate playoff contender. And they are one of the key points of conflict as we attempt to update our predictions. Just how much should one make from their performance so far? Seven points from five games is good, and clearly shows that they are miles better than they were in 2016. On the other hand, any run of the mill bad team will have stretches like that in a season.

Those results, therefore, are perfectly consistent with the prior that said: ‘Boston will be much improved, turning from a dreadful team into a mediocre one.’

The question is whether Boston’s performances have been good enough to challenge that assumption. After all, they thrashed Seattle (who has been very good in their other three recent games), and played very even with two expected playoff contenders (NC and Chicago), even if they only got a solitary point from those games.

From my perspective, this is a case where new information has only increased the uncertainty. It is still quite possible that Boston could drift back down toward the bottom soon. It’s also quite possible that they continue to play at this level and hang around in the playoff race all season. I haven’t seen enough yet to feel confident in either direction. A month from now, we’ll likely be in a far better position to assess their true talent.

  1. Parity

This was the mantra going into the season, and everything so far has supported the idea. While North Carolina remains a full length ahead of the field, everyone else is packed close, with just four points separating 2nd from 10th.

It’s been a season full of surprising results. But that’s hardly surprising in the broader sense. Because when everyone is reasonably close in quality, you should expect a lot of strange results from game to game, while also expecting those to even out over the long term.

  1. Seattle???

One of the biggest peculiarities this year is Seattle, who have performed exceptionally against two weak teams, played a tough draw against Portland, while also looking awful against Sky Blue and Boston. But again, this shouldn’t necessarily be too surprising, as it fits fairly well with the consensus preseason opinion that Seattle was a flawed team with enough talent to beat anyone but enough weaknesses to fall flat against anyone.

Like Boston, they are tough to lock down. But unlike Boston, there’s no particular reason to expect all that much more clarity. Chances are decent that they’ll simply remain like this all year—mixing good and bad performances evenly enough to stay in the playoff hunt without ever giving their supporters much reason to feel safe.

Unsung Hero of the Week: Broon the Broom

Posted on by RJ Allen

In this weekly series, I will be highlighting a player from the weekend who was their respective team’s unsung hero, win or lose. A player who does the dirty work, does the little but important things in a game and someone who didn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet but found other ways to contribute.

This week I’ve chosen FC Kansas City defender Becky Sauerbrunn.

The 31-year-old has been with FCKC since the first year of the club’s existence back in 2013 and has appeared 57 times. And for all that time, the Blues captain has been one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in the women’s game. Everyone knows she’s good, but people don’t quite seem to get just how good she is. Commonly referred to as Broon by fans and media alike, she is quiet, steady, reliable, and hard-working: the sort of player any club or country in the world would love to have.

FCKC 0-0 Portland

Kansas City and Portland each had significant players out due to injury, with Tobin Heath still out for the Thorns and Desiree Scott being added to FCKC’s lengthy injury list. Knowing this, I gave Portland the slight advantage going in. I also had a feeling that it would be a defensive battle, as each team has only given up three goals in five games, tied for best in the league. Portland obviously has a dangerous club on paper, led by Christine Sinclair with a star-studded supporting of Nadia Nadim, Allie Long and Amandine Henry, and more. But Sauerbrunn and her backline held each of these players in check and as a team, Portland mustered just 9 shots total with only two on goal.

Sauerbrunn just doesn’t let anyone get by her. She is calculating, organized and extremely patient in her play. Broon doesn’t have a ton of speed, but has a way of positioning herself to more than make up for it. Where many players would need to race somewhere at top speed, she sees things developing and puts herself in position well in advance of the play. She also rarely gives up free-kicks in dangerous areas, a testament to her awareness and here calm style of play.

An example of her ability to read the game so well was showcased in the 15th minute. Portland were on the quick counter with Haley Raso and Sinclair charging forward into the Blues’ final third. Sauerbrunn tracked 30 yards to snatch a pass that Raso was looking to thread in for Sinclair, cutting off the threat and sliding a cool pass to her keeper Nicole Barnhart. If Sauerbrunn hadn’t read that pass and timed her interception perfectly, Sinclair would’ve had plenty of green in front of her for an enticing 1v1 with Barnhart.

When watching her play, it’s almost as if Sauerbrunn has a magnetic connection with the ball, stopping passes through the middle, long balls over the top, and tough crosses alike. She leads the NWSL with 36 clearances, and you could see plenty of them this weekend. Overall, Portland has a height advantage over FCKC, but every time the ball was served in, Sauerbrunn and Yael Averbuch rose above the crowd to head it away. 

While the offense continues to struggle, it’s safe to say that Sauerbrunn and her defense are already in mid-season form.

The captain moves so gracefully around the pitch and her tackling ability is just as pretty to witness. One instance of it came in the 49th minute, Portland again were on the counter. This time it was Lindsey Horan and Raso executing the break. Horan drew three FCKC defenders to her as she charged into the middle of the 18-yard box. She sprayed a pass to her right that found Raso 10 yards from Barnhart, and wide open. But she wasn’t open for long, because Sauerbrunn raced to cover the space and then executed a clean tackle on Raso who must have been stunned to see such a good opportunity snuffed in the blink of an eye. It was a remarkable tackle, and one that I’ve seen her make hundreds of times. 

And that’s the essence of Sauerbrunn. She does the amazing so often that we grow accustomed to it. But we shouldn’t let that consistency dull our perception of her brilliance.

Sauerbrunn is constantly working on her game and sharpening her skills, and in my opinion, she has become the best center back in the women’s game since stepping onto the world stage in 2008 for the United States Women’s National team. If Sauerbrunn and FCKC can continue this solid defensive play while somehow finding a match to ignite the attack in the coming weeks, Kansas City could very well make it back to the playoffs this year.

The Furt & the Fabulous, Episode 1

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to the Furt and the Fabulous. A new series that looks at the highs and lows in the world of WoSo. Each week I will be giving 2 to 4 Furts (the bad stuff) and 2 to 4 Fabulouses (the good stuff).

The Furt

Furt #1: USSF Interrupts the NWSL Season . . . Again . . .

In a season with no Olympics or World Cup USSF has decided to host a second four-team tournament. After the USWNT came in 4th out of 4 teams in March during the SheBelieves Cup, they’ll now be trying their luck against Japan, Australia and Brazil. 

As Jordan Small reported last week,

The U.S. will open the tournament on July 27 in Seattle when they take on Australia. They will then travel to San Diego to take on Brazil on July 30. The tournament will wrap up on Aug. 3 when the team takes on Japan at the StubHub Center in Carson, California.

I have nothing against the USWNT playing these three teams. I am against them doing it in the middle of the NWSL season, forcing the national team players to miss at least one game after the tournament, likely another one before (if past history is any indication), and possibly more for recovery.

Furt #2: NWSL Attendance is Starting to be Concerning

https://twitter.com/CaptainWOSO/status/863952071757885440

We need to start being worried about attendance.

I am not one to be an alarmist when it comes to attendance in general. But even I can’t look at less than 1,800 people at a game featuring two popular teams and not be worried.

Yes, it’s May.

Yes, the games are during the day and not 7 pm.

Yes, some of the bigger Portland stars and Amy Rodriguez are MIA.

But this is not something unique to this weekend. Numbers are down across the league and across the weeks. And teams are seeing dips in attendance rather than rising numbers.

Seattle had 3,521 tickets sold opening weekend and now, in the fifth week, pulled 500 less. And yes, I know the Sounders are out-of-town playing Chicago this week. But did 500 joint Sounder/Reign fans make the trip? Doubtful.

What worries me more is FC Kansas City, who sold 3340 tickets opening weekend but pulled just 1,796 against Portland this week. Even with ARod out that is not a great sign for the two-time champs.

I don’t believe this is all Lifetime putting the game of the week on at 4 pm Eastern time. It likely doesn’t help, but there’s something more going on here, and we should be getting a little concerned.

The Fabulous

Fabulous #1: The Homi Assists 4 goals and Scores 1.

Nahomi Kawasumi is good at soccer in case anyone had forgotten. Four assists in a month of soccer is pretty damn good. Four assists in one game is a level of vision and talent that shows just how great this World Cup winner really is.

The Homi set up goals for Christine Nairn in the 20th minute and Bev Yanez in the 35th minute. Then, after what I can only assume was a Popeye can of spinach at halftime, she assisted Megan Rapinoe in the 71st and Lindsey Elston 8 minutes later in the 79th. And, to top it off, she also threw in a goal of her own in the 68th minute, just to mix things up a bit.

Plus, some of Naho’s work led to this very gifable moment.

Fabulous #2: Kerr and Galton Score a Pair of Beauties 

There are few things that make me as happy as Sam Kerr doing Sam Kerr things all over the pitch, except maybe Sam Kerr and Leah Galton doing their thing together.

With Kelley O’Hara out of the match a lot of the pressure was put on Kerr and Galton and company to get the 3 points on the road for Sky Blue.

And oh boy did they deliver.

Poor Lydia Williams was left out to dry more often than wash in the summer, but it took some excellent work to capitalize. And both of these shots would be near impossible for any goalkeeper to stop.

6 Takeaways From NWSL: Week Five

Posted on by RJ Allen

After five weeks of play in the NWSL, we’ve seen that anyone can beat anyone. Just look at Orlando beating North Carolina. How many of you called that one? But perhaps the biggest news of the weekend was Washington adding Mallory Pugh to their roster. Now we could go on all day, but we know you’re here for our takeaways. Here’s what we took away from week 5 of the NWSL.

Where has Adriana Leon been all this time? – Leigh Nieves

Leon has been an undeniable stand out for the Boston Breakers in their first 5 games coming away with 2 assists and 1 goal thus far. Which may not seem like an impressive number, but a simple eye test would tell you that she is a completely different player from the one we saw for the Western New York Flash in 2016. She seems to be a part of every attack, her passing is much more precise, and her connections with Rose Lavelle and Natasha Dowie seem to be flourishing. Although most of the attention this season has (rightly so) been on Lavelle, the rise of Leon has been interesting to witness.

FCKC needs to score more – Leigh Nieves

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but FC Kansas City hasn’t scored much since they unexpectedly lost Amy Rodriguez from their starting line up in the first game. In fact, they’ve only scored one goal in their last four match-ups bringing their season total to a whopping 3 goals. Fortunately though, they’ve also only allowed 3 goals. FCKC’s defense actually is having a vintage season. Nicole Barnhart is playing strong, Broon is Broon, and with the talent of newcomer Christina Gibbons, their backline is seeming pretty solid. Their attack is another story. It’s problematic that even with the addition of Sydney Leroux, they can’t seem get anything in the back of the net when they need it most… Is this a sad time that I bring up how much we miss Heather O’Reilly?

Nahomi Kawasumi is the real deal – Jordan Small

We’ve seen Nahomi Kawasumi play for the Seattle Reign off and on for years now. But Saturday’s performance vs. the Washington Spirit was unlike any we’ve seen before. With four assists and a goal of her own, Kawasumi helped the Reign offense explode for six goals. Kawasumi and midfielder Christine Nairn worked well together this week, combining for the opening goal this weekend. Teams should be afraid to play the Reign in the next few weeks as the partnership of Megan Rapinoe and Kawasumi on the wings has started to heat up.

Lost in it all, a streak is over – Jordan Small

It has been a quite a while since we saw Kassey Kallman sitting on the bench. Since 2014, Kallman had played 4,018 minutes straight in the NWSL. That streak came to an end on Saturday when she was subbed out in the 59th minute. If she was not hurt, this sub seems wrong. The Spirit were torched down the left side after Kallman came out. Spirit head coach Jim Gabarra will have a difficult decision to make next week when Kansas City comes to town.

Attendance still an issue – Luis Hernandez

It’s hard to pinpoint the cause for the drop in attendance this year. Critics will point the finger to the change in match time to accommodate the broadcast on Lifetime,  and it’s true that plays a factor into the numbers; however, that’s not the sole reason. The schedule has run into Easter and Mother’s Day and surely within each individual team market there are extenuating circumstances. Take both Orlando’s week five attendance of 5,260 and the best of the week Houston at 5,369. In both markets, the men’s side hosted an MLS match the day before the women’s side took to the field. Mother’s Day certainly affected people going to these matches, especially for the Pride playing on Sunday. Additionally, it’s blazing hot in the stands. Bottom line, attendance is lower than last season, but it isn’t going to be fixed this year. Hopefully, the league has been and will continue studying the problem and make corrections to boost numbers.

Randy Waldrum might be what’s wrong with Houston – Luis Hernandez

19-37-14. Take it in because that’s the record Randy Waldrum has since being appointed coach of the Houston Dash since leaving Notre Dame to take the job. Known as a successful college coach, Waldrum hasn’t been able to translate that success at the professional level. Additionally, as he was coaching the Dash, Waldrum also took the unpaid position as national team coach for Trinidad and Tobago in 2014 and was let go in early 2016. The Dash haven’t developed and progressed under his leadership even as the team talent level grows. Talent can only take you so far in this league, a quality manager makes those adjustments to get the most from the players on the roster. Waldrum’s post match comments after the lose to Sky Blue FC started to indicate he may be losing the locker room. I think he makes it to the end of the year, but perhaps Dash fans this is as good as it gets until Houston decides to go a different direction.

Well, those are our takeaways from week five of the NWSL. Can this league get any crazier? Will they finally figure out how to work these streams? Tune in for week 6 of the NWSL to find out. What did you think about week five? We would love to hear from you in the comments below or find us on twitter @backlinesoccer.

 

Congratulations, RJ!

Posted on by RJ Allen

 

We at Backline Soccer are here for two reasons, and two reasons only. First, we love women’s soccer. And second, our boss, RJ Allen, found us, cultivated us, and gave us the freedom to do something we love. 

Today, RJ graduates from college, and so we wanted to take a moment to thank her, to congratulate her, and to share how proud we are of her with all of you.

So, congratulations, RJ. You did it. And we are so proud of you!

[FinalTilesGallery id=’1′]

Off the Bench with Backline Soccer: 2017, Week 5

Posted on by RJ Allen

Image Credits to Kelley Piper. 

Welcome to Week 5 of Off the Bench! 

Backline Soccer Recap:

Quick Fire Week 5 Game Previews: 

Hard to believe we have arrived at Week 5 of the 2017 NWSL season already. Let’s dive right into this week’s previews.

Game 1: Houston Dash vs. Sky Blue FC

Houston Dash record: 2-2-0
Position: 4th
Total Points: 6

Sky Blue FC record: 1-2-1
Position: 8th
Total Points: 4

The Lifetime Game of the Week this week sees the Houston Dash finally return home for their first home game since opening day, to take on Sky Blue FC. Last week saw the Dash lose their first game to the Red Stars since July of 2015, while Sky Blue lost to the Spirit 4-3. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from their respective losses. Sky Blue was missing some big names last week with Christie Pearce, Daphne Corboz, and Raquel Rodriguez all missing from action. With only Pearce missing because of concussion protocol, Sky Blue can expect to see Corboz and Rodriguez back in action, but as of this writing, Pearce’s status is unknown for Week 5. The Dash will look to produce better results and some goals this week, as they scored none against the Red Stars last week. Amber Brooks will be the key for the Dash, so she will have to have a better game this week. The Dash are looking good as individuals but are still having cohesion issues that will bite them more, the further into the season we go. Hopefully with Morgan Brian seemingly back in action, and Andrea hopefully close, they can start to mesh a little better.

Game 2: Seattle Reign vs. Washington Spirit

Seattle Reign record: 1-1-2
Position: 6th
Total Points: 5

Washington Spirit record: 1-2-1
Position: 7th
Total Points: 4

The Reign are coming in this week after drawing with the Thorns last week after giving the Thorns a little aid from an own goal by Jess Fishlock. The Reign looked to be the better team but just couldn’t hold the lead. This week they will look to keep up the pressure from last week’s match and press early and often. The Spirit are coming off of a big first season win that saw them score four goals on Sky Blue last week. The Spirit looked their best last week and will look to continue that train of momentum into Week 5 against a strong Seattle side. Washington will look, again, to see a big performance from Stephanie Labbé, who has been dominating in goal through the first four weeks. If Player of the Week Francisca Ordega can pull off another big game this weekend, the Spirit just may have a shot to beat the Reign. 

Game 3: FC Kansas City vs. Portland Thorns

FC Kansas City record: 1-2-1
Position: 9th
Total Points: 3

Portland Thorns record: 2-1-1
Position: 2nd
Total Points: 6

FC Kansas City and Portland will face off in the last game on Saturday. Both FCKC and Portland are coming off of hard-fought draws last week against the Pride and Reign, respectively. Portland, while suffering in the first half, had a strong showing in the second half. They will look to carry that momentum into this week. Seattle did a great job last week of making Christine Sinclair and Nadia Nadim almost invisible. Portland will need them more active. It was also reported by Jamie Goldberg that Portland would again be without Tobin Heath, Mana Shim, Katherine Reynolds, and Dagny Brynjarsdottir as they struggle to return from their injuries. Portland will need to figure out the struggles in the final third until Heath returns. FC Kansas City is going to need a lot more out of Sydney Leroux if they are going to start churning out wins. In addition, Shea Groom saw minutes last week, even with a broken rib, but she was looking to be in pain as the match progressed, which could be a factor against Portland. FCKC is strong defensively and with Portland struggling in the final third, this game could see some great action. 

Game 4: Orlando Pride vs. NC Courage

Orlando Pride record: 0-2-2
Position: 10th
Total Points: 2

NC Courage record: 4-0-0
Position: 1st
Total Points: 12

The battle of the first and last place teams. Could this week be the week the Pride get their first win in twelve games? Crazier things have happened. The Pride, while drawing last week with FCKC, played some of the best soccer they have played all season. They are still struggling with finishing their chances and should have beaten FCKC had they done so. The Courage’s only weakness can be found in their defense at the moment and the Pride were able to break through them the last time they played, but just could not finish their chances. With Danica Evans and Marta both hopefully getting the start again, we could see a better output earlier from the Pride. Last week also saw Ali Krieger’s best game she has played for Orlando, and they will need everything she has for the front line of the Courage. Orlando continues to struggle with their midfield which is causing a lot more unnecessary work for their defense. The Pride starting lineup looked a lot better last week, but with Monica getting injured in the first few minutes of the match, Dani Weatherholt may end up with the start. The Courage just need to continue to play the way they have while shoring up their defensive efforts. If Orlando can finish their chances and work the backline of the Courage, they might just have a shot.

Game 5: Chicago Red Stars vs. Boston Breakers

Chicago Red Stars record: 2-2-0
Position: 3rd
Total Points: 3

Boston Breakers record: 2-2-0
Position: 5th
Total Points: 6

The final game of the weekend will see the Red Stars and Breakers face off at Toyota Park. The Red Stars will look to use the momentum of the shut out against Houston last week as they face a Breakers side who are a lot stronger than anyone expected them to be. A big question mark for the Red Stars is Christen Press who, while working hard this season so far, has yet to find the back of the net. She leads the league in shots but is also sitting on two yellow cards in four games, quite the unexpected stat. Once she unleashes her first goal, the season should progress nicely for her. In the meantime, Julie Ertz seems to have gotten this scoring thing down. Chicago continues to struggle in the final third, which may pose a bigger issue against the Breakers this weekend if they cannot correct it. The Breakers, on the other hand, have started this season quite strong. They lost to the Courage last week, but only by one goal. Boston proved last week that the Courage have some points where they can be beaten and they will look to carry that into Chicago this weekend. They mainly struggled with breaking out of pressure to get their runs in. That will be a priority this week against the tough defensive side of Chicago. 

The Scouting Report:

We went live on Monday night with our Week 4 TSR, recapping all of the NWSL games. 

In case you missed it, catch up here:

This week RJ Allen also had the pleasure of interviewing Kayla Mills and Mandy Freeman of Sky Blue FC.

Catch up here if you missed this awesome interview!

Come back next week for the next edition of Off the Bench!

The Unused Sub: When Silly Soccer Boys Tweet

Posted on by RJ Allen

You know what seems very unnecessary? That upcoming “Pirates of the Caribbean” movie.

SO ABOUT LAST WEEKEND

Well, last weekend sure had two matches stand out for different reasons, didn’t they?

Washington Spirit/Sky Blue FC was a barn-burner with seven goals. I think most of us are still recovering from all that back & forth action. Then you had the first installment of the Cascadia Rivalry in 2017 with Seattle Reign FC/Portland Thorns at times resembling a demolition derby that here and there had some moments of soccer. I get it being a rivalry and wanting to come off the block swinging, but Seattle sure had some piss & vinegar in them on Saturday night. Maybe – probably – because of what happened to them in Boston the week before, they came out surly. It was a blessing and a curse, with the highlight of the blessing being that absolute fireball Jess Fishlock blasted. Rightfully she won Goal of the Week honors because of it.

On the flip side, it sure was a physical match that had both coaches Mark Parsons & Laura Harvey yelling at various times at the officials. Four yellows were issued where there surely could have been more, and probably should have been. I don’t know – I’ve always looked at rivalry matches as being something unique and tough for a match official to preside over. Obviously you don’t want to let it get out of hand and run the risk of a brawl or serious injury happening, but you don’t want to call it Tupperware-tight, and you’ve got to give them the respect to let them play. The next two installments in the regular season will happen at Memorial Stadium and I imagine the context of last weekend’s installment will be remembered by whoever is officiating those ones.

And I am in full agreement with Reign FC head coach Laura Harvey that last Saturday’s match would have made for great TV.

JEAN-MICHEL AULAS IS THIRSTY & MERRITT PAULSON OBJECTS

Stop me if you’ve heard of this before: Jean-Michel Aulas, chairman & owner of Olympique Lyonnais is thirsty again.

This prompted Portland Thorns FC owner Merritt Paulson to tell Aulas to get his drink elsewhere.

All sports teams owners are egomaniacs and it’s all to our entertainment. Most, if not all, people here in Seattle get a kick out of it whenever Paulson tweets something because within five minutes he will delete it; hence it’s surprising his tweets to Aulas are still standing. Aulas would probably stop short of tampering to try and get players to join his women’s superteam. You know what – it’s all funny to me. It may not make sense to a lot of us, but you can’t accuse them or any other people of their ilk that they don’t care about their investments. Everyone just has a unique way of expressing it. It may not make sense to plebeians like you and me, but if you had their bank accounts, yeah you’d probably act a little bit off too. That said, I did like Paulson objecting and basically telling Aulas, “Come at me bro.” He cares about his players and wants to keep them in Portland, as he should. Much like Aulas cares about constantly trying to get talent to come to Lyon and the NWSL definitely is producing some talent. Some are just hilariously vocal about displaying their devotion to the team they own like Paulson and Aulas, while others aren’t. This may be the first time we’ve seen Paulson interact with Aulas, but certainly won’t be the last.

Would a friendly between Lyon and Portland Thorns be entertaining? Absolutely.

You know what would be just as entertaining if not more – Aulas & Paulson throwing hands.

Oh and I would not be surprised if Allie Long was playing for Lyon in the near future. Maybe after the 2019 World Cup.

AFTER A SEVEN GOAL-FEST, WATCH THIS WEEKEND BE SCORELESS DRAWS

What’s with Saturday’s games kicking off at the same time? Oh well.

Sky Blue FC OVER Houston Dash.
I really want Houston to get the results here because I really want to believe (and be confirmed) that they are better without a certain midfielder playing overseas at the moment. That said Sky Blue just seems hungry for revenge after that barn burner they had against Washington and will want to take it out on someone. Unfortunately that is Houston. However if Houston gets the result here, I would not be bummed about getting this prediction wrong.

Seattle Reign FC OVER Washington Spirit.
FC Kansas City and Portland Thorns FC play to a DRAW.
North Carolina Courage OVER Orlando Pride.
Chicago Red Stars and Boston Breakers play to a DRAW.

With that out of the way, here’s what you all came for, this week’s music video break.

Song: “Stayin’ Alive” | Artist: Say Lou Lou

Don’t Be Surprised When the Orlando Pride Beat The Courage

Posted on by RJ Allen

As many have noted, the Orlando Pride winless run of 12 matches stretching to last season is in danger of tying the Washington Spirit’s streak of 13 if Tom Sermanni’s side fails to hold home field advantage on Mother’s Day against the North Carolina Courage. However, Coach Sermanni has been quick to point out that the 2017 version of the Pride is different, and vastly improved from last year. Taking him at his word, let’s examine why this team hasn’t been able to get a win so far this year and the adjustments needed to beat North Carolina.

With the level of talent on the Orlando roster, the midfield for the team was a question mark leading into the season.  And going into the fifth match, returning players have not performed to where the team was last year. Monica was one of the starting centerbacks and so far, has appeared more uncomfortable in the holding mid role. Laura Alleway, the other starting centerback, was dropped from the Matildas in the offseason and has not been the first choice to make the starting XI for half the matches. Plus, she gave up the penalty in the first meeting with the Courage which led to Sam Mewis’s game-winning goal from the spot.

Last year’s team golden boot winner Kristen Edmonds seems to be slightly out-of-sorts at times, which pales in comparison to her strong form that ended the 2016 season and led to national team camp invites. Jasmyne Spencer also looks unsettled in the starting XI to begin this year’s campaign. Her strength so far seems to be as a late game sub. Spencer was able to assist in Marta’s goal entering the match in the 64 minute after generating the opportunity with her movement. The pass to Spencer which created the chance came from Edmonds. Could this spark the run of good form which could lead to the first victory?

Sermanni’s side has also been undisciplined at inopportune times in 2017. Both of the game winners against the Pride have been converted penalty kicks, and last week’s draw came from a free kick right outside the penalty area. Eliminating those mental errors could have potentially given Orlando more than the two points it currently has. Has Sermanni focused on the offensive finishing in the final third at the expense of working on correcting the disciplinary miscues?

The North Carolina Courage is rolling into the City Beautiful off a road win in Boston, full of confidence. They will be favored on Sunday, but does Orlando have a chance to win at home? Yes, of course. Parity is still a favor in the NWSL, and the Pride can get wins if they can stop underachieving.

Sunday will be the second of three meetings against the Courage. Here’s what Sermanni’s squad needs to do to give themselves the chance to take the three points at home: To begin, the Pride will need to give North Carolina a different look than when the two teams met in Cary. This is already a certainty since reports have indicated Monica will miss the match with a bone bruise stemming from her injury last week. This should give Dani Weatherholt another chance as the starting holding mid. Last week, Toni Pressley earned her first start, and the back line played noticeably better than it had all season. The Courage will continue to high press teams; will Pressley allow the Pride to play quicker from the back compared to Alleway? So far, it seems it might.

Starting Danica Evans created more opportunities in the box from her flip throws in Kansas City. The team should be able to improve by practicing tactics that act like an extra corner kick. The flip throw puts more pressure on the opposing teams, and Orlando really didn’t make the Courage uncomfortable inside their eighteen. The Pride need more numbers in the box to get under the skin of North Carolina. Evans’s energy alongside Marta should make the defenders work much harder than in the first meeting where the Courage were giving Orlando a ton of space to operate.

So there you have it, the Pride can beat the Courage by coming out with a different look, having expected stars perform to expectations while not shooting themselves in the foot by giving up great dead ball chances, and applying pressure inside their attacking third. Easier said than done, right? We’ll see. 

Route Two Soccer – Chicago 2 – 0 Houston: How to Control a Midfield

Posted on by RJ Allen

With Ertz in the holding role, Press dropping back, and the fullbacks ranging forward, Chicago overloaded the midfield and dominated the game.

After suffering a 2-0 defeat away to Houston to open the season, Chicago fared far better in week 4, producing a suffocating performance that allowed them to reverse the scoreline and earn an easy three points.

Now, controlling the game against Houston is not particularly difficult at the moment—given their weakness in the midfield—and Chicago absolutely should expect to beat them at home. Still, there’s a world of difference between expectation and reality. It’s a credit to Rory Dames and his team that they were able to diagnose Houston’s primary weakness and set themselves up to capitalize.

Chicago has been a bit of a tactical enigma so far in 2017. They’re a team with a lot of options and a stated desire to develop a range of styles and setups. In her Unsung Hero column this week, Jacqui Porter noted that Chicago’s defenders have embraced the idea of flexible deployment, with everyone potentially ready to slot into a variety of roles on a given day. And the big news for the Red Stars this year, of course, has been the varied uses of Julie Ertz—who has jumped from center back to attacking midfielder to holding midfielder just in the course of these few games.

But for all that talk, the reality is that Chicago has done very little to move away from their standard approach: a 4-4-2 midfield diamond, with pinched wingers and overlapping fullbacks. Yes, when Chicago was chasing the game at Portland in week 3, they briefly switched to a back three. But on the whole, the basic setup has remained the same. Whatever shifts they’ve tried have mostly happened within that framework—with the same names simply swapping places within the diamond.

That does produce some genuine unpredictability. After all, the 4-4-2 may look the same on paper but it will play quite differently depending on who occupies the spot at the top of the diamond. With Ertz there, you get very little playmaking through the middle, as she focuses more on crashing the box and using her physicality to force play directly down the defense’s throat. With Press, the approach is far more technical and dynamic—with the associated cost of drawing their best scorer away from the goal.

An attacking diamond: capitalizing on Houston’s weakness

On Saturday, though, we saw a third variant—and one that produced a lot of positive results. This time, DiBernardo took the attacking midfield slot, giving Press the freedom to push forward into a withdraw forward role, and allowing two of the team’s most skillful and perceptive players to work together in the attacking corridor. And although she didn’t produce her best game this time around, DiBernardo has the potential to be a true #10 (one of the very few in the US player pool who can make that claim). In the long term, using her front and center could pay enormous dividends for Chicago. 

Meanwhile, Ertz was pushed back to the holding midfield role and Colaprico sent to the left, with Mautz mirroring her on the right.

This setup maximizes the team’s offensive capacity—giving each of the front six room to express themselves and encouraging good build up through the middle. It does, however, come with some drawbacks. First, while Colaprico is certainly capable of playing on the left, it is a bit of a waste of her talents. She is arguably the best holding midfielder in the league, and has less chance to control the game from the left. Second, while Ertz is an excellent defender, she is far less restrained positionally. Where Colaprico is a midfield conductor, keeping a firm hand on the play and easing smoothly on the throttle, Ertz is far more rambunctious—more a traditional box-to-box midfielder than a true holding player. Those forward runs can be devastating, of course, but they can also leave the backline exposed.

However, when executed well, these two dangers mostly cancel out. One of the advantages of using Colaprico on the left is her capacity to drop back to occupy that central holding space when needed–something that most wide players can’t be trusted to do. What’s more, Houston is precisely the sort of team to use this approach against. Given their midfield frailty, they simply can’t risk a high-pressure game in the midfield. That allows Chicago to dominate possession in that area, granting Ertz the freedom to playmake from the back and allowing the Red Stars to dictate the run of play.

At least, in theory, that’s what should happen.  But for the opening half hour, it didn’t look to be working all that well, with Colaprico making a number of very un-Colaprico like errors, and Ertz ranging out a bit too aggressively. However, the Chicago defense did its job—double and triple teaming Ohai to limit the damage, and giving the offense time to settle into their roles. During this period, Chicago was the better team, but still looked a bit out of sorts.

A tightening vice

As the game progressed, however, everything began to flow a bit more smoothly. And the key to it all was Christen Press, who remains goalless on the year, but has turned in some excellent performances nonetheless. Saturday was her best game of the season, and a big part of that is down to the flexibility that this setup affords her. As a slightly withdrawn, wandering forward, she is free to hang on the shoulder of the last defender one minute and then drop deep into the midfield to link play the next. Given her skill and confidence on the ball, the defense can’t afford to leave her unmarked as she flits between the midfield and the front line, but neither can any single player afford to stay with her indefinitely lest it fracture the team’s overall defensive shape. 

It was a problem that Houston was never able to solve. Time and time again, Press would drift back, overloading the Houston midfield, and allowing quick transitions through the middle. Then, as Houston would push their backline higher in an effort to close down all that free space, she and Huerta would race through and take a ball over the top from Colaprico, Ertz, DiBernardo, or the fullbacks. Press, in particular, found plenty of joy down the left channel. Some excellent defending (from Roccaro in particular) kept those assaults from turning into goals, but it was a constant threat on the day.

Both Ohai and Daly worked hard to contribute defensively, in the hope of rebalancing the numbers, but their efforts were more sound and fury than they were a tactical success. The crucial danger zone for Houston was that pocket of space between Chicago’s midfield and front line, and for all that their forwards put in good shifts to race back and defend, they were mostly trailing behind the play—looking to provide cover after the seam had already been split. 

Morgan Brian – very good, but is it enough?

Things did change in the final twenty minutes, due largely to the season debut from Morgan Brian. With her on the pitch, Houston looked a different team, far more confident in possession, and far more resolute in the midfield. It just goes to show how much they’ve missed her (and Andressa) over the last few games. Still, even with that jolt of energy and additional skill, Houston didn’t really resolve the underlying problems; they simply managed to play around them a bit more successfully.

So, going forward, even if Brian is ready to play 90 minutes every week, it remains to be seen whether they can develop an approach that will capitalize on the extra bit of stability she can bring. Because even with Brian at her peak (and Brian at her peak is one of the world’s best players), Houston will still face the underlying problem of a defense that is excellent when defending deep, or when coming out, but which all too easily gets twisted and turned the higher up the pitch they go. All of which goes to the point I made a few weeks ago: for the Dash, the best bet is likely to defend deep—‘solving’ the problem of an overloaded midfield by simply conceding the point—draw the opposition forward, and look to spring them through a quick counterattack. So far, the team has shown flashes but little sense of a real desire to play that way. One of the big questions going forward is whether Waldrum is willing to make that commitment. And if not, whether he’ll come up with a solution to this persistent problem.