Category: Analysis

Welcome to American Soccer: Here’s the Entrance Fee

Posted on by RJ Allen

This is the second article in the series “Welcome to American Soccer,” which focuses on equal treatment and access to soccer in the United States. The articles focus on where U.S. Soccer stands on a variety of issues and where they need to improve.

At an event ahead of last year’s World Cup, a group of ESPN commentators gathered in Manhattan to discuss the upcoming tournament. As the conversation shifted to the United States, who would be missing the highest-level men’s competition for the first time in 32 years, Herculez Gomez went off on the pay-to-play system that operates in the United States.

Gomez admitted that he never would have been able to play soccer had it not been for certain people stepping up to help. He and his brothers had a benefactor who wrote an annual check of $25,000 and a coach that was willing to drive an extra 45 minutes to and from practice.

“It’s very difficult for young immigrant families to pay to play,” Gomez said. “Oftentimes these Latin American kids—it’s not just Mexican-American kids, it’s all walks of life—get overlooked because they don’t have the funds. It’s very much a suburban sport.”

Shaka Hislop was the goalkeeper for Trinidad and Tobago in their 2006 World Cup experience. Now, he’s raising his kids in America, and he’s seen first-hand how much of an investment is required.

“It’s expensive. In all honesty, unless you earn a certain amount you just can’t stay in the game,” Hislop said. “That’s a detriment of the wider player pool, and, honestly, I don’t know what the other option is. There are a lot of opportunities in the game, but they come at a cost and as a result, I think a significant portion of the talent pool is being overlooked.”

Soccer in the United States operates as a “pay-to-play” system. If you want to make it to the highest levels of U.S. Soccer, you’re not going to get there by playing in your recreational league. Instead, you’ll need to join a travel or club team, where costs usually exceed thousands of dollars. Children who come from middle- or lower-class backgrounds, who can’t afford $3,000 a year just to play their sport, never have a chance of being noticed and may never be introduced to soccer in the first place.

This problem has been confirmed by studies on the topic. Roger Bennett and Greg Kaplan published a study in 2013 on the pay-to-play system in the U.S. They compared the background of each U.S. men’s national team member from 1993 to 2003 to each NBA all star and NFL pro bowler over the same period. Using hometown zip codes as an indicator for socio-economic status, the study found that soccer players come from communities that had higher incomes, educational and employment rankings, and were whiter than the U.S. on average. By comparison, NBA and NFL players came from places that ranked below the average on the same indicators.

In many ways, the pay-to-play system has become accepted as an unfortunate reality. Most people understand that it is a problem, but it’s almost impossible do anything about it without reaching the highest levels of U.S. Soccer. But there has been more discussion around it in the last year or two, spurred by two events: the U.S. Soccer presidential election and the CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers.

During the U.S. Soccer presidential election, many candidates mentioned pay-to-play in their platform and campaigning. Hope Solo made the pay-to-play system central to her argument. She started her announcement by explaining her own experiences with the pay-to-play system, and shared that she wouldn’t have made it without a lot of help from friends, family, and her community. She went on to talk about her belief that the problems in U.S. soccer start at the youth level.

“Soccer has always been a middle class sport and in more recent times, has become an upper middle class sport,” Solo said. “Some of the best clubs around the country charge each youth player between $3000-$5000 per season. I have personally witnessed young players heartbroken over the financial reality that they could no longer pursue their dream.”

Solo’s raw approach to the topic of pay-to-play, and the boldness of her run overall, got the attention of a lot of people. But the issue of pay-to-play also seemed impossible to ignore after the U.S. men’s national team failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.

Based on population alone, the United States should have an over-abundance of top-level soccer talent. Many have suggested that the United States could be one of the best soccer countries in the world if we made the game accessible to all people, from all walks of life. But because of pay-to-play, all kids aren’t being given the same opportunities. And as long as certain communities are denied the chance to be successful, the U.S. can never reach its full potential.

Despite the roaring voices of disapproval, there have been very few concrete proposals of how pay-to-play might end. And when former U.S. Soccer President Sunil Gulati was asked about it during the elections, he offered little hope that the highest levels of soccer are seriously thinking about change.

“There’s nowhere in the world that has no pay-to-play,” Gulati said. “What you want to make sure of is that anybody can afford it. But you have millions of kids playing, and the thought that we’re going to end play-to-play is nonsensical.”

Gulati might be right. But there is another reason why some people are so desperate to keep pay-to-play alive: it is a multi-billion-dollar industry. It seems that U.S. Soccer, like many industries, will go where the money is, even if that means leaving some kids behind.

Which seems like odd behavior for an organization deemed a “non-profit.”

So, maybe you can’t eliminate pay-to-play. Maybe the goal of making soccer available to anyone who wants to play is “nonsensical.” But we won’t know if we don’t try, so let that be our north star. U.S. Soccer has an obligation to make soccer in the United States open to people from all walks of life. People shouldn’t be left out because they can’t pay an entry fee.  

The NWSL Is About To Start, Three Things I’m Excited For

Posted on by RJ Allen

Like most who follow the National Women’s Soccer League, I’ve been eagerly counting down the days to the start of the 2019 season. The off-season lacked a bit of drama for most teams, and while there was the occasional huge news drop, like the termination of the deal between the NWSL and A&E which will no longer have game of the week broadcasts on the Lifetime network, the late “will she or won’t she” drama of Tierna Davidson declaring for the NWSL draft, or the Reign FC name change that came with the move to Tacoma. As teams finalize rosters for the upcoming campaign in the shadow of the World Cup this summer, and league activity ramps up to come at us fast and furious, here are what I’m looking forward to this year.

New Gaffers In Charge

One of the signs on how competitive the NWSL is a team changing a head coach when results are poor or when a team needs a new voice to get the players over the hump, and into the playoffs. Washington and Orlando sacked veteran coaches when the teams ended in the bottom third of the standings, while Houston parted ways with Vera Pauw and hold new manager James Clarkson.  I’m excited to see how the Marc Skinner can give Orlando a new identity in what is to be a challenging year. As players heading to the World Cup come and go, will Orlando be able to take a step forward in development? I’m curious how the Spirit will bounce back with what has to be a shift in culture from how Jim Gabarra ran the show. Coach Clarkson has the pieces to finish higher than the 2018 version of the team. However, the Houston Dash appear to have the talent in place to see the team make the playoffs for the first time in team history. Houston appears less impacted from the World Cup as the other teams with new coaches. Could this be the year the Dash make the postseason?

 World Cup Bounce

With the league not on television and attendance dropping for most teams last season, the “World Cup bounce” is something that needs to happen for the league to continue on a positive trajectory. NWSL matches will be streaming on Yahoo Sports domestically, but I want to see what sort of TV deal the league can get in place after the World Cup is over. My expectation is the league has to have at a minimum the playoffs and championship games broadcasted on television. I’m trying to give the league office the benefit of the doubt on having a plan to boost the presence of its players and the product on the field once all the players that missed time in France return. Additionally, I’m hoping to see a spike across the league at the gate. Each team in the league should be thinking of marketing during and after the World Cup, and I know it isn’t going to have the same impact across the teams. I just want the momentum to actually be a thing. Perhaps even have the league announce any plans of expansion around this time. This pipe dream is starting to get carried away.

Can Lightning Strike Twice For the Courage?

I think it’s fair to say that North Carolina was one of the most dominant teams to play in the world. On top of all the Courage achieved domestically, the team came away with the International Champions Cup over the likes of PSG and Lyon. Recently, the ICC was announced to take place in Cary with the Courage defending the cup at home. Obviously the champions of the league last year are also favored for this season, and even though my loyalty isn’t with North Carolina, I’m just looking forward to seeing if they can be as successful this year as they were in 2018. Every match played for the Courage will be must-watch as far as I’m concerned, either to watch the dynasty continue or to see them stumble, it will be entertaining to me.

Those are my top three things I’m excited for this NWSL season. Hopefully, we are all in for a treat as women’s soccer will be in the spotlight. There are several unanswered questions still to be seen, such as how will the season go for Sky Blue or will the Reign attendance change with a new location. That being said: Are you not entertained?

Five NWSL Questions As We Approach Opening Day

Posted on by RJ Allen

The sixth NWSL season is only two weeks away, and hopefully it will be the best season yet. As we prepare for another year of highs and lows, a million questions buzz around: will the North Carolina Courage win the Shield again? Who will be hit hardest during the World Cup? Which players will get suspended for yellow card accumulation?

There are many questions that will be answered in the coming months. Here are the five questions that I am excited to see answered in 2019.

Who will be the best without their World Cup players?

The big event looming over the 2019 NWSL season is the World Cup. It will consume the time and energy of many starting players across the league, leaving room for non-national team players to step up to the plate. The absence of so much talent has the potential to really shift the league and impact the playoff race. But it could also be the chance that launches a career for a player not on the national team radar.

So often, we overlook the talent of players who aren’t on their respective national team. This will be their opportunity to show us why we shouldn’t underestimate them.

What impact will Vero Boquete have in Utah?

The attacking midfielder from Spain, who most recently played with PSG in France and Beijing BG Phoenix in China, is back in the NWSL for the first time since her 2014 stint with the Portland Thorns. I’m excited to see what Boquete will add on the pitch for the Utah Royals. Seeing her play alongside the likes of Christen Press and Amy Rodriguez is going to be fun and might be the boost they need to take Utah to the playoffs.

Will Sky Blue win a game this year?

The answer to this question should be simple: of course. And after a terrible 2018 season, I am looking forward to seeing Sky Blue win a game this year. Between their off-the-field situation and their on-the-field struggles, this is a team that will appreciate every point in 2019. It’s hard not to cheer for them, if only because of all the negative stuff they are forced to deal with. I’m looking forward to seeing them put up a fight, and maybe even lifting themselves up from the bottom of the table.

What will happen when Portland and the Reign clash?

I’m not a supporter of either Portland or the Reign, but this rivalry remains one of the best in American soccer. Last year, these two teams met four times, including in the semi-finals of the NWSL playoffs. Portland’s 3-1 victory over the Reign just before the playoffs was one of the best regular-season matches in 2018, and their semi-final game a week later lived up to the inevitable hype. Both teams have some of the best talent in the league, and when they face each other, fouls, yellow cards, and goals are abundant. They will likely be missing a lot of their superstars for their first match on July 5th, but they’ll play two more times in Tacoma towards the end of the season.

Who is going to beat North Carolina?

North Carolina was unstoppable last year, and the team appears to have only gotten better in the offseason. I think they are the clear choice to win the Shield again, but maybe we will be surprised? Will someone challenge the Courage for the title, or will it be a runaway again? It will be fun to see how the World Cup impacts this team, and whether or not they finish No. 1 at the end of the year.

Equal Treatment For Women: Step One

Posted on by RJ Allen

This is the opening article for the series “Welcome to American Soccer,” which focuses on providing equal treatment in and access to soccer in the United States. The articles focus on where U.S. Soccer currently stands on a variety of issues and where they need to improve.

After the U.S. Women’s National Team announced their lawsuit against the U.S. Soccer Federation, I wrote a piece for this website explaining the importance of the possible outcome and why I believe the U.S. Soccer Federation has an obligation to provide equal treatment for all players. As a non-profit organization, the U.S. Soccer Federation sets out with the goal of promoting soccer “in all its forms” across the United States. They set the tone for soccer across the nation, and in some circles, around the world. What kind of message does it send if they treat women differently than men?

This is a controversial idea. There is a lot of pushback from people who believe that the U.S. Soccer Federation should be focused on revenue and invest more in the teams that have the biggest business built around them. Mostly, this means investing in the senior men’s team and giving them the best treatment, even if it means leaving the women behind.

Equal treatment for the senior women’s team is a controversial idea. But it shouldn’t be. In fact, this should be the bare minimum for a federation that does far less for marginalized communities.

It is true that players for the U.S. Women’s National Team are treated like second-class citizens when compared to their male counterparts. But those who have made it in U.S. Soccer remain a fairly privileged group, regardless of whether they are male or female. While all athletes are not white nor do they all come from wealth, the system is designed for white, privileged people to succeed.

The U.S. Soccer Federation doesn’t do anywhere near enough for communities of color, poor people, disabled people, or transgender people, whether they are fans or athletes. The pay-to-play system means that children with enough money to play for travel teams are the ones who are noticed by the U.S Soccer system, while children who can’t afford that luxury aren’t even considered. Communities of color remain underrepresented at all levels of U.S. Soccer, particularly African-American communities. Disabled athletes and fans run into issues on and off the pitch, and U.S. Soccer needs to be doing more to make sure transgender fans feel welcome in the stands and transgender athletes feel welcome on the pitch.

I’m sure there are other areas I have not hit on here. And I plan to explore each of these areas more in-depth in further articles. But the point I’m really trying to bring home here is that the U.S. women are already fighting from a position of privilege, something they have acknowledged in discussions about this topic. And yet, they receive so much pushback.

If we want a U.S. Soccer Federation that grows soccer in the United States and fields the best teams possible, we need to make sure it is welcoming all aspects of the American community. Whether that’s immigrant communities, people of color, disabled people, transgender people, or any other community, a great U.S. Soccer Federation includes all American people and treats them equally. Sometimes, that means making investments that might not show immediate returns or taking positions that might be perceived as political.

The women’s battle for equal treatment is only the first step. There are so many people to bring into the community, so many people left to fight for.

Let’s get started.

Conflict Over Jamaica’s World Cup Compensation is a Reminder of How Far We Have to Go

Posted on by RJ Allen

Last fall, when Jamaica’s Reggae Girlz qualified for their first ever World Cup, there was jubilation on the pitch and excitement in the air. But one big question hung over the proceedings: what kind of support would the team get from their Federation?

The Jamaica Football Federation (JFF), after all, has some history here. The team has only made it this far thanks to outside support, most notably from Cedella Marley and the Bob Marley Foundation, whose sponsorship of the program helped revive them after an effective death in the first half of the decade. Even at World Cup qualifying, the team had little chance to train together, and were dependent on support (such as it was) from the CONCACAF staff to manage travel and training gear.  

The hope was that JFF would step up to support the team after it had qualified. And there has been some positive evidence. Jamaica has scheduled friendlies, something that is obviously critical for a team trying to prepare themselves to face the best in the world. But it’s also a testament to just how ignored they have been that merely scheduling some friendlies amounts to progress.

And there is more going on behind the scenes. As reported recently in The Gleaner, JFF and the team have recently been embroiled in an argument about contracts. Part of the argument stems from a disagreement over basic facts. According to JFF’s president Michael Ricketts, contract offers were distributed to the players. But according to the coaching staff, no such offers were made.

Head coach Hue Menzies, who has led the team on a purely volunteer basis, says that this situation was roiling the team, leaving many players in serious doubt about whether they could afford to commit to the World Cup for the summer.

Fortunately, contracts do appear to have been distributed to players and coaches alike in the last few days, settling the immediate dispute.

However, there are deeper issues at work here. Why was the communication so poor? Why was there an expectation of free service from the coaching staff, and external support from the Marley Foundation, for so long? And just how much is actually being made available?

Again, according to The Gleaner’s reporting, Ricketts has made clear that budgets are tight, saying “we can’t sign a contract if we can’t pay.” What is unclear, however, is just what ‘tight’ means in this context. As in many countries, the gulf of support between men and women’s teams is enormous. And it seems implausible that an organization like JFF lacks the funds to offer meaningful pay increases to their World Cup qualifying teams. Especially when one considers the increased payouts authorized by FIFA for all attendees this summer.

It is all too normal, however, for football federations to take prize money and never redistribute it to the players. Followers of the men’s game may remember a contract dispute that almost kept Ghana from playing in the 2014 World Cup, for example. Based on the current reporting, there seems to be serious concerns that this is happening in Jamaica’s case.

All of this happens in the context of broader international conversations about the state of the women’s game and fair compensation. The United States women recently filed suit against their federation for discrimination. The Denmark team recently struck to demand equal treatment, as did the Irish team. Brazil’s players have long fought for more support and recognition, as have many of their South American compatriots in Venezuela, Argentina, and Colombia.

Across the board, it is common for women to not merely get paid less, but also to be housed in worse accommodations, to be provided with worse training resources, and to suffer the many indignities that come with being treated like an accessory rather than the main show.

There has been some progress. Norway has fought long for equality, finally resulting in a landmark deal for equal pay – a deal that still has not been able to coax Ballon d’Or winner Ada Hegerberg to rejoin the team, after her frustrations with unequal treatment. New Zealand were recently able to negotiate an equal pay deal as well.

But even these good examples are limited in scope. Equal pay to individual players is one thing. Genuine equality of treatment—equal marketing, equal grassroots development, equal commitment—is still a long ways away.

It looks like the JFF situation has been settled, and that’s a good thing. But this should be a reminder of just how far we have to go, and just how much of a burden is placed on these women who are obligated to not only perform as world-class athletes, but also to fight for their right to fair compensation in the process.

The NWSL Is A Restrictor Plate League But It Doesn’t Have to Be

Posted on by RJ Allen

In auto racing, there are times when cars are forced to use a restrictor plate over the air intake to limit the power of the engine. It’s often done under the promise of safety. It is too unsafe to let the full power of the engines out at once. To keep a more even keel to things, they restrict some power.

The NWSL often feels as though US Soccer, the NWSL front office and to a lesser extent some of the ownership groups are perfectly happy to keep a restrictor plate on the league.

They don’t want too much growth nor to have conditions and salaries growing too quickly. Not only is there a minimum salary of $16,538 and a $421,500 salary cap put on the total roster, but a team maximum just to make sure no one wants to pay their star something crazy like $47,000 a year.

The NWSL wants a league full of Portland Thorns while making sure that teams like Sky Blue FC and the Washington Spirit aren’t blown out of the water. The league does need to monitor its growth and make sure it doesn’t spin out of control. But it also has to allow the key teams of the league to move the league forward without standing in their way. While there are ways for teams not directly connected to MLS groups to grow and compete, the tactic of holding the league back to make sure teams who, if we’re being honest, are run about as well as your high school’s 9th grade production of Our Town, might not be the best long term bet the league could make.

So what do I think the NWSL should do to help take the restrictor plate off of the league? While that isn’t an easy answer or a quick path, I think there are some steps they have to take if they want to see growth that keeps the league moving forward.

1) They need higher overall league standards

Having locker rooms with showers, not playing games on college fields, having proper housing for players, I could go on but the league needs to both create a set of league minimums that are higher while also taking a hard stance when teams fail to live up to those standards.

If the league wants to grow it has to improve the standards year or year in meaningful ways. Holding the Utah’s and Portland’s of the league back to make sure that teams like Sky Blue and Washington don’t have to spend to much more money only holds progress back.

2) Bring Designated Players to the NWSL

For those who do not know, in MLS a designated player is a player that basically doesn’t count against the salary cap.

The NWSL should add something similar to their rule book. Give each team one or two players who do not count against the current $421,500 salary cap. If Orlando wants to pay Marta $1,000,000 a year to play in the NWSL, let them. If Ada Hegerberg can be brought to Utah or Seattle or Portland for $200,000 a year? Let the owners pay for it.

3) Let there be (some) free agency

Right now if the team you’re on offers you a contract and you decline – well they keep your rights and there is always overseas, right? Allowing players to become free agents if they are unable to come to an agreement with their clubs when their contracts end would give the players a little more choice and prevent some of the rights holding that teams have engaged in in the past that forced players to go overseas.

4) USSF needs to back off

USSF controls far too much in this league. They control all USWNT players contracts that play in the NWSL, they pay them and as much loyalty as you can ascribe to the relationship, it all goes to USSF and away from the club teams. Sam Mewis might love North Carolina, but the North Carolina Courage do not control her contract nor do they sign her paycheck.

There are ways USSF can keep supporting the league in terms of giving each team financial support without iron-fisted control being demanded in return.

The NWSL is not a bad league. It is not a league that will fold end of the season. But there is no doubt it is being held back. Teams that are unable or unwilling to move forward with the pace of the other teams, a federation that wants a 9 month long training camp for it’s stars, simple lack of some basic amenities of other American sports all coalesces to tie weights to the league’s cleats.

The NWSL has lasted 7 years by growing in a careful progressing as they put together their new engine. They have done slow and steady laps around the track. Not going to fast, being very careful on the turns. It’s time the throttle was opened up a bit and we can see just how well the car was put together.

For The Future of Women’s Soccer

Posted on by RJ Allen

It’s been an eventful week in the fight for equal pay.

With just three months left until the 2019 Women’s World Cup in France, 28 members of the U.S. Women’s National Team filed a lawsuit on Friday against the U.S. Soccer Federation, alleging “institutionalized gender discrimination.” They argue this isn’t just because of vastly inequal pay, but also issues with travel and accommodations, medical treatment, coaching, and venues.

Every time equal pay comes up, there is a defensive reaction from many people who disagree with the lawsuit’s premise. They argue that the U.S. women should not be paid the same as the men because they do not bring in the same revenue. Sports is a business, and the women should pull their own weight if they want equal pay.

There are many, many flaws with that argument. It is not true that the men always bring in more revenue than the women. The men have received more investment than the women, giving them a better platform to succeed. There is historic discrimination against women in soccer, and in sports more generally, which denies us many of the benefits given to our male counterparts.

Bringing all of these points together is a critical point that often goes unnoticed.

The U.S. Soccer Federation is not a for-profit business. It is a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization, whose mission statement is to “make soccer, in all its forms, a preeminent sport in the United States and to continue the development of soccer at all recreational and competitive levels.” Quite simply, they are aiming to promote and grow soccer in the United States.

If your goal is to promote soccer in the United States, and presumably set an example, then why wouldn’t you treat your senior national teams the same? Shouldn’t your goal be to encourage all people, regardless of race, sex, or any other category, to join the sport and be treated with equal importance? Children learn from the example set on the national and international stage. The current model reinforces the message to all children that at the highest level of their sport, men are still worth more than women.

Serena Williams summarized this well.

“You know, we have had some incredible pioneers in our sport that stood up in the ’70s and said, ‘We’re going to get paid what the men get paid,’” Williams said. “They stood up way back then. I think, at some point, in every sport, you have to have those pioneers, and maybe it’s the time for soccer. I’m playing because someone else stood up, and so what they are doing right now is hopefully for the future of women’s soccer.”

Somewhere out there, the next Alex Morgan or Abby Wambach is watching. And she’s counting on this team to fight for her. She’s counting on her country’s federation to acknowledge her worth, so that she can be successful in her sport. But every day, U.S. Soccer reinforces the message that she is less-than simply because of her gender.

It’s not just American women and girls who are hopeful about this lawsuit. It’s the women playing around the world today, often in much less equitable situations, who are also watching. Some will argue that the U.S. women should be happy with what they have, because its a lot worse in other countries. American players do recognize that they have it better, and that’s part of the foundation of this lawsuit.

“This team, we’re kind of a visible team,” Becky Sauerbrunn said in an interview at the end of the SheBelieves Cup. “So, I think it’s important that we kind of take that on, and we show that we are empowered women and that we will fight for things we believe in, like pay equity. It’s a heavy responsibility, but it’s one we gladly take on.”

The U.S. Soccer Federation works under the goal of promoting soccer in the United States. Three World Cup titles will certainly do that, but even if the U.S. women didn’t have so much on-the-field success, an argument against equal pay still rings hollow. It relies on a ‘sports business’ mentality which ignores the fact that the U.S. Soccer Federation is not a traditional ‘sports business.’ It is a non-profit, and thus, should not approach soccer with the goal of making money. In fact, it should be investing all the money it brings in. The same should be said for FIFA, who currently sits on an estimated 2.7 billion USD.

If the goal of these two organizations is to grow the sport, they have an obligation to invest in areas that have traditionally been ignored and neglected. That includes, but is not limited to, women.

We should not feel guilty holding the U.S. Soccer Federation accountable to these standards. They might be idealistic, but this is our federation, designed to serve the growing soccer community in the United States. We won’t win every battle, but we need to show that we are willing to fight. Because there is too much at stake here. It is not simply the treatment of the women currently playing for the United States. With every victory, the U.S. opens doors for women and girls in the United States and around the world. Current players and future players alike benefit from their wins.

I think its worth putting up a fight.

Route Two Soccer: Replacement Level in the NWSL – Part 2

Posted on by RJ Allen

Last week I discussed the theory of replacement level valuation, and described some general ideas about how it can be usefully employed to think about the NWSL. This week, I want to dig into things a bit more, with four observations about player value in the league, informed by the idea of replacement level.

1. Setting replacement level in a precarious league

Replacement level is not static. If overall talent levels improve, so should the replacement level. And in a league like the NWSL, with a precarious employment structure, the movement is probably more significant than in other more settled systems.

While early retirements are growing less common, it remains true that plenty of good players leave the game for reasons that have little to do with their abilities on the pitch. Christina Gibbons’ recent retirement is a good example. She wasn’t forced out by lack of quality; she left because the hassles of trying to maintain a professional career for little money and no amenities seem to have overwhelmed the desire to play.

A league which can’t necessarily compete with economic opportunities in the private sector will naturally suffer more turnover and loss of talent than one where players make hundreds of thousands as a baseline. That in turn means that marginal player availability is often determined more by the willingness to accept a lack of compensation than by a strict accounting of ability. As a result, simply showing up and turning in 90 minutes is generally worth more in the NWSL than it would be in a league with fairer compensation.

However, as time goes on and standards improve, more players are willing to stick it out. This means that replacement level is going up over time. A player who was modestly above replacement level in 2014 might not be any longer, simply because the overall tide is rising.

2. Measuring modest contributions

The concept of replacement level is a useful device to square some circles within discussions about NWSL talent. Too often, conversations exist in a framework where a player is either excellent or useless, without any clear sense of the space in between. But in fact, the league is full of players who are contributing modest value, without necessarily rising to the level of average.

In a league with nine teams, there are probably only about 50 players who could reasonably be described as average or better. But 188 players received minutes last year. How do we account for the players in the middle of the pack? Here I’m thinking of players like Adriana Leon, Joanna Lohman, Christen Westphal, Amy Rodriguez, Rebecca Quinn, Thembi Kgatlana, Brooke Elby, etc.

With any players, it’s obviously important to look at context. What did their team ask of them, how well did they fulfill their role, what alternatives were there? What sort of potential do they have? Obviously, Andi Sullivan is a different sort of player from Brooke Elby, and it wouldn’t be helpful to pretend their total contributions could be measured by one universal metric. At the same time, if you want to tell the story of the season, it’s useful to have some form of cross-contextual comparison.

So with players like this, one useful perspective might be to emphasize that they logged important minutes, and provided meaningful value, to the extent that they performed above the replacement level, while also recognizing that their contributions were probably below the average production levels in the role. This can then be supplemented with more specific evaluations.

For example, while Elby and Sullivan both contributed some value, Elby was only expected to be a role player. She was selected 23rdd in the Breakers dispersal draft—almost literally the definition of a replacement player. That she contributed real positive value helped her teams enormously. Sullivan, meanwhile, was the top pick in the draft, and Washington was counting on her to step into the pro game immediately. While she wasn’t hopeless (she did contribute real value), merely being above replacement level was extremely damaging for the Spirit who needed more.

Sullivan clearly has the higher ceiling, and likely will have many strong seasons to come. But in 2018, her performance hurt Washington a lot because they were counting on more.

3. Replacement level variations across roles (the problem of too many good forwards)

Another important feature of an analysis informed by replacement level: emphasis on the distribution of talent across roles. Specifically, the imbalance between attacking and defensive talent. Because the reality is that the overwhelming percentage of top-quality players in the league fill attacking roles. This is partly a feature of the game itself—where individual brilliance matters more in the attack, while team structure matters more in the defense—but it’s also a consequence of the developmental structure in the US system. With college still the dominant training system, players are free to continue as forwards long past when they might have been forced to switch in a world where the pipeline narrowed earlier.

Whatever the cause, it’s clear that the league is stacked with attacking talent. Unfortunately for the players below the top tier, this significantly reduces their value, because replacement level is fluid and depends on the actual distribution of talent.

For a given team, their 4th or 5thh choice striker is probably going to be close to replacement level. She is the player who can perform satisfactorily and do a job, but is well outside the top talents in the league. But look at even a team as hapless as Sky Blue and realize that they have Naho Kawasumi, Carli Lloyd, Savannah McCaskill, and Imani Dorsey. Not to mention Jen Hoy. And McKenzie Meehan. And Paige Monaghan and Kyra Carusa coming in.

These are all very good players. But when you do the same exercise across the league, you realize that every team is objectively stacked in their attack. Unfortunately, though, ‘stacked’ is ultimately a relative term. The problem for Sky Blue isn’t a lack of excellent players in the attack; the problem is that teams like North Carolina and Chicago are even more absurdly blessed.

But this means that there are dozens of genuinely great attacking players who not only can’t get a regular starting job, they’re not even particularly close to one.

Adriana Leon is particularly apposite example here. When the Boston Breakers folded, she entered the dispersal draft and fell to the 18thh pick. That felt low to many people, who pointed out her six goals for Boston in 2016. When she found no playing time in New Jersey and was eventually traded to Seattle for a 4th round pick, there was more outcry. A seasoned striker, a Canadian international no less, had to be worth more than a low draft pick.

But thinking about it in terms of replacement level can help clarify things a bit. Because the reality is: six goals in a season notwithstanding, Leon simply doesn’t have that impressive a record over her career. In 83 NWSL games, she notched 10 goals. That’s not nothing, but given the same opportunity to occupy a roster space, many other players might have found the net far more often, or contributed in other ways. Ultimately, strikers just aren’t scarce in the NWSL, while opportunities at striker very much are.

None of which is to suggest that Leon isn’t a good player. She certainly is. It’s just that she’s not clearly comparatively better than the many other good players who can fill the same role. Probably every team in the league would be happy to have her, but none of them would be willing to give up much (or any) value to do so. That’s because they’re not assessing her talent on an absolute scale; they’re looking at it comparatively.

Compare this to defense, and things look very different. Here, the replacement level is much higher as teams struggle to fill out their roster with players who can plausibly handle the job.

This is a big part of the reason why teams consistently try to shift attacking players back into more defensive roles. They’re trying to take advantage of their overabundance in one area to bolster themselves in another space. And it’s why positional flexibility is very helpful for marginal players. The ability to step into multiple roles increases their potential value over replacement.

4.Replacement level in a World Cup year

As we know, the World Cup takes place this summer. And just like in 2015, the NWSL will continue amidst the tournament, despite the removal of three dozen or so of its best players for a substantial chunk of the season. What’s more, the removal of talent is by no means balanced. Teams like North Carolina and Portland will lose most of their starting XIs, while Sky Blue, Washington, and Houston will be significantly less ravaged (as always, the wonderful NWSL roster sheets maintained by Jen Cooper are crucial here). To some extent this will have a balancing effect on the league, pushing everyone toward the middle.

But it also depends on how well teams manage their replacement markets. Team depth is always important, but especially in a season like this, when it will be significantly more tested. And it’s a reminder that ‘replacement level’ as an abstract concept is never quite the same as the actual replacement level for a specific team. Those that play the game well will assemble supporting casts that are better equipped to step into the breach. It’s a reason to pay special attention to the preseason this year, because that’s the time when the league’s replacement talent (recent college graduates, trialists, part-timers, etc.) have the chance to make their case.

Route Two Soccer: Replacement Level in the NWSL – Part 1

Posted on by RJ Allen

Sports analytics has evolved by leaps and bounds over the past three decades. Arguably the single most important concept undergirding that explosion has been the idea of ‘replacement level.’ Indeed, replacement level is so significant that it has gained usage outside of the sports world in a variety of business and economic contexts.

What is replacement level?

Put simply, replacement level defines the level of performance that is readily and freely available. In the baseball world, where it first gained widespread usage, replacement level is roughly the quality you would expect if you promoted a career minor leaguer to fill a roster spot.

Importantly, replacement level doesn’t mean zero value. A team full of replacement level players would still pick up the occasional point here and there; these players are still very good, just not quite good enough to make a normal roster. What’s more, performance is always within a range. A replacement level player won’t turn in exactly-replacement level performances every game. They’ll sometimes play well, and sometimes play dreadfully, but over time the median result will center on replacement.

To get a rough estimate of what a team full of replacement level players would look like, the 2016 Boston Breakers and 2018 Sky Blue FC seem to fit the bill. Now, both of those teams had players that are clearly better than replacement level. But they also likely had some below that level. And they also both performed toward the bottom of their potential.

Why replacement level is important

Replacement level is critical for understanding team building and player value. While it is not the only way to assess a player, it is probably the single most important way of characterizing their utility to a team. This is because it exists in a goldilocks position between two extremes: measuring the positive function of simply showing up, without overvaluing mediocre performance.

On the one side, it is preferable to a pure counting-stat approach, which merely adds up a player’s positive contributions. It is of course true that a player who scores three goals in a season has added value over what would have happened if no one had filled that position. But that’s not how it works. A player who scores three goals from several dozen excellent chances that were created by her teammates is actually hurting the team by squandering the chances that someone else might have converted. This is a critical opportunity cost of occupying a valuable active roster spot—the value lost because the spot couldn’t be occupied by someone else. Replacement level attempts to quantify that lost value by identifying what could reasonably be expected from freely-available talent.

This concept of ‘freely-available’ talent also shows why replacement value is superior to a second intuitive model: value above average. It’s admittedly tempting to measure players against average. A player who is below average is a drag on their team in some sense. In order to win more than you lose, you need your players to be above average.

The problem is that, by definition, not everyone can be above average. In fact, roughly half the players will be worse than average. So if one of your regulars is injured or suspended, it is very unlikely that you will be able to replace them with another above-average player. Far more likely, your replacement will be, well, replacement level. Which demonstrates that the ‘merely average’ player is actually providing significant value. Simply by showing up and performing at a sustainable level, they are helping their team.

Limitations of replacement level analysis

Having laid out the general theory of replacement level, it’s worth taking a moment to acknowledge three big caveats, and provide some explanation for why the concept is still worth using.

First, replacement level is an abstraction. In the real world, it depends on context. In particular, if your team has several excellent left backs, the actual ‘replacement level’ is much higher than it would be for a team with no cover. Nevertheless, in terms of league-wide player assessment, the abstraction is helpful for characterizing the value that a given player can contribute. Each individual team will want to make its own assessments of positional scarcity, but for comparing players across teams, replacement level is consistent.

Second, soccer is a dynamic game, and player performances can’t be easily disentangled. To start with an obvious example: Alex Morgan is one of the world’s best strikers, but if you don’t provide her any service, she isn’t going to contribute much value. That’s not her fault, and it would be strange to decide that Morgan was not a valuable player simply because the team around her was bad. And more broadly, there’s the reality that some players will play well in certain systems but flail in others. Some players will excel if given a limited responsibility, but fall apart if they’re asked to do more. A dedicated defensive player might be quite valuable in a team set up to play with a true #6, but terrible on a team that needs creativity from every midfielder. A good striker might be hopeless if forced to play as a fullback. Or vice versa.

None of that is a reason to disregard the concept, but it is a reason to be careful about drawing assessments too broadly. Value over replacement is best set up as a framework for assessing what actually did happen, but it won’t necessarily provide much perspective on what would have happened if things had been set up differently.

Third, soccer simply isn’t as amenable to analytic assessment as many other popular sports. The state of soccer analytics is miles ahead of where it was a few decades ago, but even at the top levels of the men’s game, where data is much more plentiful and quite a bit of money is being spent, things are still far hazier than in sports like baseball or basketball.

Those complexities mean that it will never be straightforward to assign a single value to a given player, and any assessment along those lines should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Nevertheless, as a matter of theory-crafting, the concept is still useful, and it’s worth taking seriously as a framework for considering player performance.

Having laid out the framework, I’ll post the second part of this piece next week, which will discuss how replacement-level can help organize our thoughts on the league.

What should be Marc Skinner’s Top Priority For the Orlando Pride?

Posted on by RJ Allen

Teams entering the 2019 National Women’s Soccer League season, which coincides with a World Cup year, would be challenged with the loss of federated players preparing for the global tournament in France. Compounded to some of the teams woes is the appointment of a new coach, or like the Orlando Pride no coach officially named until after the draft. Barring any trades, Coach Marc Skinner will need to find players to fill the now twenty-two roster spots, and additionally the four supplemental players will also be important due to the potential of missing ten starters this summer.

Coach Skinner explained his thoughts on the World Cup absences impact to his roster in his initial statements by saying, “But what we need to do is look at what we have, who we’ll have to use during the World Cup, and then we as a coaching staff will work everyday to make those players better. So while our players are out representing in the World Cup, we’ll make sure those holding the fort will be doing their best, keeping us competitive and winning games.”


Head Coach Marc Skinner at Orlando City Stadium – Courtesy Orlando Pride

Impacting the Pride significantly will be the national team players who may end up missing more time than just the World Cup however since the U.S. women’s national team, along with Brazil and England, will be participating in a series of matches in preparation. While the Aussies will be participating in their own set of friendlies at that time. Most national team players have extensive commitments away from their club team leading into France.

In his brief time with the team so far, Coach Skinner has already made his started to make his mark on the roster for the Pride with his selections of Erin Greening and Marisa Viggiano in the 2019 NWSL college draft; additionally,the team announced waiving Brazilian defender Poliana after she expressed her desire to return to her homeland and play there.  Not claiming a preferred formation, Skinner will have a few potential formations to tinker with, based on the remaining non-federated players on the Pride roster there currently won’t be enough players to field a starting XI.

It’s not a matter of if Orlando adds more players to the roster, but when those players will be announced. Until then instead of speculating on where specific players will be on the pitch during the World Cup absences, Coach Skinner will need to address the main hurdle which plagued Orlando last year: who in the remaining group of the roster will step up and score goals for the team. The focus will partly turn to both Danica Evans and Rachel Hill. However, if Chioma Ubogagu doesn’t make the roster for England, the Pride could maintain three forward on the attack in a potential 4-3-3. Both Ubogagu and Hill have spent the offseason in the W-League and could find themselves in form from the beginning of the NWSL season barring injuries.

Hill scored five goals while on loan for Perth, and Ubogagu found the back of the net twice. Having Sam Kerr on her team, Rachel was more successful as a distributor providing six assists as well. Chi scored her goals in her role as a poacher putting the ball passed the goalkeeper on second chance opportunities. From the group, Evans is the more pure striker of the group, but hasn’t been able to generate much momentum since her rookie season. Coach Skinner will need to find a way to give Danica an avenue to contribute more. It has yet to be seen if she can handle that role.

The possibility of Ubogagu making the World Cup roster for England is not unlikely, and if Orlando deployed a two striker front line could play into Hill’s playmaking ability for Evans to get herself on the scoresheet during the season. Scoring threats may have to come from the midfield, and the Pride may utilize a variation of a 4-4-2. Also in the W-League, Christine Nairn playing for the Melbourne Victory and contributed four goals to the team’s tally. Orlando managed 30 goals in 2018, which was a significant drop from the league leading 45 goals in 2017. Sydney Leroux was the team’s golden boot with six goals in 2018 while Marta led the team in 2017 with 13 goals.

The new gaffer for the Pride should also be mindful of the 2016 season when Orlando deployed a single striker formation. Back then the team struggled to provide service to Alex Morgan, and she would have to deal with defenders double teaming her without any other consistent scoring options. The Pride managed a meager 20 goals the team’s inaugural season. Kristen Edmonds had a breakout year and led the team with six goals.

Many questions are still needing to be addressed by the first year skipper. However, finding more goal scoring needs to be Skinner’s first priority, as in the brief existence of the team has shown the basic principle that goals cure most issues. If Orlando wants to return to the playoffs in 2019, the Pride will need to have multiple goals scorers where the player who leads the team generate more than six goals and get near double digit production.