Category: Analysis

The Furt and the Fabulous: Episode 2

Posted on by RJ Allen

I am back with my recurring series of The Furt and the Fabulous. A look at the best and worst of the week. Let’s dig in.

The Furt

The Refs Need to be Better

The NWSL had had an issue with consistent officiating since the league started. Lately, it seems that games will either have five yellows and a red card or no cards at all. The inconsistency between games leads to constant questioning of what will and won’t be called between games.

And yellow cards seem to just be out of control so far this season. Boston already has 12 of them. North Carolina has 9 while Sky Blue, Washington, and Seattle each have 8. Chicago, Portland, and Orlando each have 7 while Houston has 6 and FCKC has only 4. That is 76 yellow cards in Week 7. I’m not saying they were all bad calls. Some of those cards were well deserved. But some of them, a good number of them, were due to the refs failing to control the game from the start, and needing to impose order later on. 

We can only hope going forward that the refs start gaining more control in games and are more consistent between games. Though pigs may fly first.

Texas is Too Damn Hot

The clip above is Rachel Daly going down after playing 90+ minutes in the 90 degree+ heat of Texas in the middle of the day.

This game shouldn’t have happened.

There was a backup game for Lifetime to swap to if they wanted to keep their 4 pm ET slot. They could have switched to North Carolina at Chicago, a game that featured some great soccer. It would have been a little annoying I’m sure to swap to that game and move the Dash game against Seattle later in the day. But it should have happened. For the safety of the players and the fans.

It should have happened because we know what happens to the human body when you run for 90 minutes in 90+ heat and nearly 100% humidity. We know what happens when players play in that sort of heat and what the lasting effects on their bodies and the game are. The league, Lifetime, the players themselves all knew this game should have been moved. But the new TV deal superseded player safety. Something that should never, ever happen.

Let’s hope that the league looks at this carefully and it doesn’t take Christen Press passing out after a game in Orlando or Alex Morgan returning back to the league and heading to Orlando just to get heat stroke from a 4 pm kickoff to change things.

The Fabulous

Sauerbrunn Scored, Angels Sung

When Becky Sauerbrunn scores angels get their wings. It’s something that doesn’t happen very often but when it does it’s accompanied by her trademark jumping up and down and the whole team swarming her in celebration.

There are defenders that get in on the scoring action more the others. But Sauerbrunn is usually worried about holding back and cleaning up after other’s mistakes. But now and then on a set-piece, she’s able to rise up and strike gold.

Sauerbrunn is so good even the person marking her had to admit how good she is.

Sheridan is a Beast

Sheridan has been so good I’m giving her two gifs.

Just voted to the Best XI for May, Sheridan is having quite the rookie season. So far she has started all of the games in goal for Sky Blue. The Canadian International has 33 saves, most in the NWSL right now, in 8 games, playing all 720 minutes.

It’s not just the saves she’s making that has Sheridan standing out. She is playing with a confidence that goalkeepers work years on building up. Handling her backline and working on the finer points of professional goalkeeping … well, she might be a rookie, but she knows how to manage and organize her defense, something Sky Blue has needed over the past few seasons. For all the talk of who might or might not be Rookie of the Year, personally, I think as of now Sheridan might be Goalkeeper of the Year.

Unsung Hero of the Week: Reliable Raso in the Rose City

Posted on by RJ Allen

In this weekly series, I will be highlighting a player from the weekend who was their respective team’s unsung hero, win or lose. A player who does the dirty work, does the little but important things in a game and someone who didn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet but found other ways to contribute.

This week I’ve chosen Portland Thorn FC forward Hayley Raso.

The 22-year-old Australian is with her second NWSL club, playing for the Washington Spirit in 2015 and with the Thorns since 2016. Raso has proven to be a dynamic player, one who can be utilized as both forward and midfield for club and country. She has already made 21 appearances for Portland and in each one, she has been a steady and reliable player.

Portland 2-0 Boston

Having just faced off nine days previously (ending in 2-2 draw), these teams were already somewhat familiar with each other. Portland wasted no time in getting on the board and taking control of the game. An unfortunate own goal in the first minute by Boston’s Julie King gave the Thorns the early and unexpected lead.

Raso’s first major contribution came at the five-minute mark; as the Breakers were attempting to gain possession, she intercepted a pass at midfield and it it landed at the feet of Amandine Henry. The French playmaker looked around to pass but inevitably chose to take it herself and 20 yards out ripped a low shot to the right corner. It reminded me of how my old club coach would say “accuracy over power.” Henry did just that and it was somehow only her first goal as a Portland Thorn in 16 games.

The play started with the hustle and individual effort by Raso to win the ball. Portland quickly reaped the benefits of that kind of play, grabbing a two-goal lead at Providence Park. Anyone who knows anything about the NWSL, knows that when Portland get a comfortable lead at home, well, it’s almost impossible to come back and get any points in that kind of atmosphere. Raso and Henry gave the Thorns all they needed for the win on Saturday afternoon.

Throughout the game, I noticed Raso’s ability to win free kicks for her team, the first coming in the 10th minute. Raso dug her heels in to do a bit of defensive work and it paid off. She and Christine Sinclair doubled-teamed a Breaker on the sideline in Portland’s half and Raso came away with the free kick. It looked like a reminder to the opponent that even though Portland was winning, they wanted more and were working hard to show that.

Just one minute later, Raso would be at it again; this time it was just her and King fighting for the ball in Boston’s end. Raso got on the end of a Nadia Nadim ball and she tussled with Boston’s captain for a few seconds before Raso earned yet another free kick for her club, one in a more dangerous spot. While nothing came out of it, once again, Raso showed why she has earned a starting spot for Portland so far this season. Her energy and constant mobility remind me of a certain FCKC forward who is currently out of commission this season (Amy Rodriguez).

Raso could not be contained, this time making her presence known in the 17th minute. The Aussie made an identical run with Sinclair into the box, somehow getting in behind the backline of Boston for an impressive step-by-step play. Sinclair opted to take the shot, which just went wide, but I thought Sinclair should’ve passed to the open Raso. She made a lovely run to make herself available but the pass never came. Nonetheless, Raso had great movement throughout the whole play to present Portland with a serious opportunity.

Continuing her strong first half, Raso finally found some serious real estate in front of her in the 24th minute. Guided by an outlet pass from Portland’s own 18-yard-box thanks to the pinpoint service from Nadim, Raso was off to the races, competing against Boston’s Emilie Haavi for possession. Raso took it wide, took heavy contact from Haavi and I’m sure you guessed it … earned another free kick.

Once again, the Thorns failed to capitalize on it but it’s a perfect example of how Raso does in 1v1 situations and her vision to take it wide knowing she needed to wait a few more seconds for her teammates. Due to the foul, she never got the chance to get service into the box but getting that set piece was just as important.

One last example of how well Raso played this past weekend was in the 75th minute. The Thorns won a ball 20 yards out and two seconds later Raso sent a perfect pass to Lindsey Horan who had snuck inside the box. Horan would’ve had the shot, but Allie Long was making the same run from across the box so they collided and the play went dead.

Raso was making these small but important plays all game for Portland. She was one of the most active players on both sides of the ball. It didn’t have the outcomes they wanted (like goals or assists), but her liveliness and effort didn’t go unnoticed. The more I watch her play, the more I want to see her on the field for Portland when available. She is young and extremely talented and has proven how useful she can be.

Route Two Soccer – Orlando is Making Progress

Posted on by RJ Allen

When the news came on Monday that Houston and Randy Waldrum had parted ways, it felt like a logical move. The calls for his dismissal had grown louder (including a long Twitter rant from yours truly last week), and it was increasingly hard to see a path forward for the team under Waldrum.

The question now is whether any of the other NWSL stragglers might soon find themselves in the same position. And the name that tends to dominate those conversations is Tom Sermanni. Like Houston, Orlando is an expansion team. And like Waldrum, Sermanni is a highly regarded coach who will probably get some cushion. That said, it’s hard to imagine Orlando giving him the same kind of extended leash that was handed to Waldrum. They did not sign Marta in order to have her languish at the bottom of the league all season.

At the moment, Orlando sit in 8th place with six points from seven games. That is not good, but in a league with this sort of parity, it also means they’re only a couple strong results away from being back in the thick of the playoff race. So while you never want to ignore the table, the question is less about results per se and more: “are they making progress?”

And on that front, my answer is a (tentative) yes. Orlando haven’t fixed their problems, but they do seem to be moving in the right direction.

Orlando’s weaknesses

In order to make that case, I want to first diagnose what I see as Orlando three main weaknesses, in order to clarify how they’re trying to resolve these problems.

  1. The midfield (or lack thereof)

This is, by far, the biggest problem for Orlando – something that was readily apparent before the season started, and which remains just as clear today. The Pride have plenty of useful players in the midfield–who can pass the ball reasonably well, who are somewhat mobile, with some decent defensive skill. But there aren’t really any standouts.

At times, Camila has looked like an exception—willing to take on defenders, and demonstrating some flashes of brilliance. But she is also prone to mistakes and doesn’t really have the cool, calm sort of ball control needed to keep the engine humming. And Kristen Edmonds was excellent in 2016 but was probably playing at her peak then, so it is no surprise to see her drift back into merely being a solid contributor. Combine these with Maddy Evans, Dani Weatherholt, and Monica, and you have a nice set of complementary parts but no one to tie it all together.

This isn’t necessary a death knell. It’s possible to cobble together a workable midfield from less, but it takes some real doing. And it’s a problem Orlando hasn’t solved yet.

  1. Finishing

On the whole, finishing tends to even out. Create enough chances, and the goals will follow. It can be frustrating to watch a team unable to convert, but over the long haul, if you’re giving your strikers opportunities, the results will follow. But Orlando are really putting that maxim to the test this year. We don’t have the sort of advanced statistics necessary to really compare teams, but my gut tells me that Orlando has one of the worst Goals vs. Expected Goals ratios in the league. The chances have been there; the finishing has not.

It’s possible that’s simply bad luck. But it’s also possible that it’s a problem of roster construction. After all, look at the teamsheet and you’ll find a group of forwards with immense skill and physical ability, who nevertheless haven’t been able to really make it stick at this level. Chioma Ubogagu, Jasmyne Spencer, Jamia Fields, Danica Evans … this is a Who’s Who of talented players who haven’t quite been able to put it all together yet.

You can’t help but wonder, therefore, whether Orlando might be in much better position if Alex Morgan hadn’t spent the last two months in France. Turn just a couple of those frustrating misses into goals, and Orlando could easily be sitting on 10 or 11 points and the season would feel a lot different.

  1. The defense

Going into the year, the backline was supposed to be Orlando’s greatest strength. Filled with top level internationals like Steph Catley, Alanna Kennedy, Ali Krieger, and Laura Alleway, this was expected to be the foundation stone upon which the team could build. But so far, it’s looked anything but solid. Orlando has yet to produce a clean sheet and has conceded 11 goals. Only Houston and Washington have let in more.

Stalwart defenders like Krieger and Alleway have looked shaky at times. Kennedy sometimes appears stuck in second gear. And even Catley—one of the world’s best fullbacks—has been below her normal level. In fact, their best defender so far has probably been Toni Pressley—who wasn’t even penciled in as a starter two months ago.

Addressing the weaknesses, or: Why on earth are they playing a 4-3-3?

These problems are real – especially the first two – and they are why I never really bought the idea that Orlando was a playoff challenger going into the season.

Still, every team in the league has weaknesses. The question is how they manage them. And this is where the questions about Sermanni really come to a head. Because he seems to be, somewhat inexplicably, committed to playing an attacking 4-3-3.

The exact composition has shifted a lot, but the preferred midfield trio seems to be Monica, Edmonds, and Camila. In the attack, things have been even more fluid, with the only constant presence being Marta. But their talisman has been shifted all across the frontline, playing everything from inside forward to winger to central striker to a traditional Number 10 role. You get the sense, actually, that Sermanni is just giving everything a try, hoping to figure out which role will give Marta the greatest chance to influence games and to figure out which players serve as the most useful complements to their new star.

But this can feel at times like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. No matter how you set up Marta, there are structural limits to what they can get out of a 4-3-3, with this sort of personnel. Given the intrinsic weakness of the midfield, it feels borderline malpractice to set them up with a numerical deficiency like this. Time after time, Orlando has struggled to keep a grip on the game, while teams with four and five players in the midfield have swarmed them defensively and run right through them in the attack.

And losing the battle in the middle of the pitch has knock-on effects everywhere else. Indeed, if you want an explanation for Orlando’s defensive woes, this is the first place to look. I tweeted a couple examples of the problem last week:

 

Defense is a team effort. The pocket of space between the back four and the midfield is arguably the single most important zone on the pitch. Good attackers make their living by moving in and out of that space. If the defense stays put, you are free to operate at will. If they come out, it creates holes into which your teammates can move. Good defensive teams are good because they manage this space well. And with Orlando’s 4-3-3, they simply haven’t been able to do that this year.

Sky Blue 2 – 1 Orlando: Another frustrating result

We saw all this playing out again this week, as Orlando suffered another frustrating defeat away at Sky Blue. Watch Sky Blue’s first goal, for example, and it’s clear that it stems from a lack of numbers in the midfield. A poor touch sends the ball loose and neither Edmonds nor Camila have the requisite skill or strength to recover it. Then, once the ball is lost, there’s no support behind them, and Sky Blue has numbers in transition. Just a few seconds later, the ball is in the net and Orlando’s lead is gone.

Or: watch from 37:00 to about 38:15, and you’ll see Orlando’s defenders calmly passing the ball back and forth with their keeper while Sky Blue sits and watches. It’s almost a caricature of soccer (as in the classic Simpsons episode). Literally nothing happens because Orlando’s midfielders runners … well … aren’t, and there’s nowhere for the ball to go. It’s a stagnant offense and Sky Blue is justifiably willing to let them pass it horizontally.

So there are still real problems here.

Signs of life, or: Maybe the 4-3-3 can work after all?

However, for all that the 4-3-3 feels like an error, there are ways to compensate.

Your best hope is to develop a support structure that links together the midfield with the attacking trio. For example, as I wrote when discussing Houston a few weeks ago, the 4-3-3 is a very close cousin of the 4-2-3-1, when your wingers drop into the midfield without the ball, the transition can be almost seamless. Alternatively, if your central striker is a good playmaker, she can drop into the midfield and create a de facto 4-4-2 diamond. This is something that you see a lot from Christine Sinclair, who lets her flanking strikers pinch in as she drops back to receive the ball, giving her excellent angles to distribute the ball sideways to the overlapping fullbacks.

The problem for Orlando has been a lack of clarity on how they’re trying to compensate. But increasingly it seems that the most effective setup is to deploy Marta centrally, allowing her the freedom to roam in the empty expanses of the middle of the pitch. Rather than looking to work a bunch of clever midfield triangles, Orlando seems to be moving toward a version of the 4-3-3 that more closely resembles a coiled spring. Hold the ball patiently at the back, work it to the sides, and then pounce when the opportunity arises.

It’s by no means ticking along perfectly yet, but this is a viable model for the Pride. And it represents a somewhat clever inversion of the conventional wisdom. As I said, when I looked at this team in the first month of the season, it seemed crazy to stick with a midfield three when this was already a point of weakness. It was doubling down on a problem.

But in a certain sense, it actually makes a lot of sense. Orlando simply isn’t going to win a pitched midfield battle, no matter how they set themselves up. So rather than tilting at windmills, they’re looking to capitalize on their great comparative advantage: Marta. Yes, she’s not (quite) as good as she was five or six years ago. But she is still one of the best players in the world and is particularly good at holding the ball under pressure, wriggling out from double and triple teams, splitting defenses, and picking out open teammates on the run.

In this iteration of Orlando’s 4-3-3, she’s finally been given the freedom to play that role to the hilt. The goal is now quite simple: get Marta the ball 40-50 yards out, force the defense to converge on her, and let the rest of the attack build out from there. This setup lets the midfield hang further back, and provide a bit more defensive cover while trusting the fullbacks to shoulder more of the burden in linking play going forward.

And if you go back to that section I mentioned above, from the 38th minute, where Orlando shuffled the ball around aimlessly with no outlets, you can see precisely how this is all supposed to work. Because yes, that minute was terrible, but look what happens right after. At 38:19, Krieger plays a long ball forward, which draws Freeman out from the Sky Blue backline. When the ball falls in behind her, Freeman’s step forward creates space for Marta to move into. She takes the ball, evades a tackle, and crashes into the box. A nice recovery from Killion snuffs out the attack before she can shoot, but the movement here is a good sign.

Sermanni has a plan – it’s worth giving him time to see it out

Orlando remains very much a work in progress. And the glimmers of hope I have discussed here are just that: glimmers. Things may very well not work out. Orlando has a lot of talent on their roster, but so does every team in the league. Even if they play reasonably well going forward, they could easily still end up finishing 7th or 8th. But the crucial difference between Orlando and Houston is that the Pride can tell a coherent story about how they are improving and what success will look like.

Ultimately, it wasn’t the results per se that necessitated Waldrum’s dismissal. It was the realization that the team was at best just treading water. For whatever reason, Waldrum wasn’t able to acknowledge and/or address the clear shortcomings of his team. The same does not appear to be true for Sermanni. His approach won’t succeed. But he does have an approach. And in my opinion, he deserves the time to see it through.

6 Takeaways from NWSL: Week 7

Posted on by RJ Allen

Week 7 of the NWSL regular season has passed us by. It was a rough week for almost all, whether due to a mid-week match, unfavorable weather, or injuries, but it was also a week of some damn good soccer. And, it seems there’s a line beginning to emerge between the top and bottom of the table, as some teams start to rack up points and begin to breakaway from the pack. So, let’s get right down to it, and give you our Week 7 takeaways. 

Marta (or Alex Morgan for that matter) Won’t Fix Orlando’s Problems – Luis Hernandez 

The Orlando Pride increased its on-the-road winless streak to 12. The last time they won away from home was against the Dash on May 20th, 2016. For the second time this season, Tom Sermanni’s side were ahead late, and once again the team shut-off mentally to allow an opponent to score. Against Sky Blue, the Pride did it twice and came away from New Jersey a 2-1 loser.

All the offensive firepower doesn’t help a struggling team like Orlando. The defensive lapses that haunted the Pride last season seem to have creeped back in; however, it’s a different cast of characters. Orlando dominated total passes, passing accuracy and possession in the box score, yet Sky Blue basically matched Orlando in shots and had more shots on goal. Good teams find ways to win, and create a winning culture.

The Start of a Gap in the Standings – Luis Hernandez

One of the talking points for those who cover the league has been the level of parity. What this means is that there is a sense that, on any given day, any of the ten teams can win their game. Eventually, each season, that feeling tends to fall apart as some teams begin to rise while others consistently fail to perform. And this season, Week 7 is where the league’s initial parity seemed to slip away because, as the league got into the second quarter of the season, the point gap between the top of the table and those bottom four teams started to open up. Realistically, nobody is surprised by the top five teams in the standings outside of the order. Certainly, nobody is shocked on the last four teams either.

Week 8 has a few key matchups, but more importantly for those bottom teams, Boston takes on Orlando on the road and the Spirit host the Dash. Those points are going to go a long way to stay with the pack, and a major challenge for those clubs which will have an uphill battle to keep pace with the playoff line.

Syd the Kid Is All Grown Up – Jordan Small

Well y’all, she’s back. After giving birth to a baby boy less than a year ago, Sydney Leroux is getting right back into it. On opening weekend, Leroux showed us that she wasn’t just coming back, but that she would continue to be a goal scoring threat. This past weekend against Washington, Syd the (not such a) kid was back at it again. This time she proved to us that her strength and power are still there and a force to be reckoned with.

With her three goals, Leroux is now tied with Natasha Dowie of Boston for fourth-most goals scored in the league this season. And just this past week, US Women’s National Team head coach Jill Ellis called Leroux into camp for the USWNT’s two games in Scandinavia. Many questioned whether or not she could make it back after her child. But Leroux is proving to be one of those badass soccer moms ready to tear up the NWSL.

Rookie Who? – Jordan Small

When you look at candidates for rookie of the year in the NWSL, few get any more attention than Boston Breakers midfielder Rose Lavelle. The first overall pick in last year’s draft has proven that she can play at this level and be very successful. But one player that isn’t getting the recognition she deserves in this race is Sky Blue goalkeeper Kailen Sheridan. Currently Sheridan ranks second in saves just behind her Canadian National Team teammate Stephanie Labbé.

There are only 20 goalkeeping spots in this league. So to see a rookie come in and immediately win the starting spot is impressive. But just how impressive has she actually been this season? Just watch the two previous matches for Sky Blue. This girl has no fear and that’s what makes a goalkeeper so great.

In eight games played this year, Sheridan has allowed just 11 goals for a goals against average of 1.4. Those are not the numbers of an average rookie. She may not be on the highlight reel scoring goals, but you can bet she’ll have some saves on there. And she’s just getting started.

These Girls are On Fire – Elizabeth Wawrzyniak

No, but for real. Did you catch that Lifetime match between the Houston Dash and the Seattle Reign?

At 3pm CT, when the match started, the temperature was the 91.1 degrees, with a dew point of 90 degrees, or almost 100% humidity. The NWS’s Heat Index calculator says that the heat index for Saturday’s game would have been 134 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s the kind of heat it’s dangerous to spend too much time just sitting around in, and the NWSL players played a full 90 minutes with only two 3-minute hydration breaks and a 15-minute halftime. Playing in those conditions literally put the NWSL players at-risk, and the league should be ashamed of themselves for letting it happen. We don’t put players on the field during lightning storms, we shouldn’t put them on the field when they could literally put their heart and kidneys at risk of organ-failure.

The fixed time of the NWSL on Lifetime games has been a point of concern for fans of southern teams since the beginning. 3pm games in Houston and Orlando not only put players at risk–I mean, the moment a single player collapses of heat exhaustion on the pitch the league should be working their asses off to make sure it doesn’t happen again–but attendance as well. Because when it’s as warm as it was on Saturday, when taking a breath makes you feel like you’re drowning, fans are far likelier to stay home with their AC than they are to show up. And honestly, who would blame them.

Certainly not the players, who probably each wished they could do the same.

All They Do is Work, Work, Work, Work, Work – Elizabeth Wawrzyniak

In case you weren’t paying attention, Sky Blue FC and the NC Courage each played three games over a seven-day period this past week. And in both cases, it’s likely that the increased travel, the lack of recovery time, and the sheer volume of play took a heavy toll on the players. All in all, I think Sky Blue came out better. They had an extra day between the Week 6 and first Week 7 match-up against the Courage in Cary, NC. And while they lost, they rested some players mid-week, only subbing in Kerr and Rodriguez late in the match. NC, on the other hand, was already coming off a tough loss to Chicago in Week 6, and though they won against Sky Blue, they came into Saturday’s rematch against the home Red Stars in Chicago looking tired, and with Jessica McDonald on the bench. Unfortunately, this exposed them in the end, as Lynn Williams seems a little lost up top on her own, or did on Saturday.

The real question, though, is whether the short turnaround contributed to injuries like Yuri Kawamura’s aborted performance on Saturday, or Kelley O’Hara’s strained gluteus medius (that’s a butt muscle, in case you were wondering). Without the appropriate recovery time, injuries are going to happen more and more frequently.

Can Orlando Pride Capitalize over Sky Blue FC for First Road Win?

Posted on by RJ Allen

With a quarter of the 2017 season in the books, the Orlando Pride sit 8th on the table, three points out of the playoff picture.

Going into Week 7, Coach Tom Sermanni’s side travel out to New Jersey to take on Sky Blue FC for their first meeting of the season. The timing for this week’s match may favor the Pride since Sky Blue is coming off a midweek loss to the North Carolina Courage on the road. Perhaps looking ahead to Orlando, Coach Christy Holly fielded a less than optimal starting XI Wednesday, and had to chase the match late which ended 2-0 in favor of the Courage.

Orlando have finally started to get in rhythm taking points in its last three matches, and have established a sense of identity missing in their first three. The most serious concern going into the match will surround the Pride netminder, more likely to be Caroline Stanley as regular backup goalkeeper Aubrey Bledsoe recovers from a concussion. A full week of practice to rally the Orlando back line will help as the defense looks to clamp down on league golden boot leader Sarah Killion, national team player Kelley O’Hara, and Australian star Samantha Kerr. Another weapon Orlando will be facing is Costa Rican international Raquel “Rocky” Rodriguez who, along with O’Hara and Killion, make for a stacked midfield.

Former Rutgers Scarlet Knight standout Kristen Edmonds is going to need to regain some of her 2016 form on her collegiate stomping grounds and work her way into the Pride attack; however, she’s been pressed to work on the defensive end alongside Dani Weatherholt while Camila has taken up the attacking midfielder role. Edmonds needs to provide better link play to the Pride offense to keep a quick transition, since her contributions so far haven’t been anything to write home about. She hasn’t been able to provide service from her free kicks which helped her last season.

Tactically, Sermanni may feel it more important to focus on the defensive side while on the road with Stanley in the back, but don’t dismiss Orlando’s attacking mindset with Marta leading the blitz against Canadian Kailen Sheridan and Captain American, herself Christie Pearce and the rest of the back line. The Pride need to take advantage of any fatigue plaguing Sky Blue after their rainy midweek game and travel to and from North Carolina. Orlando has demonstrated it can take it to a strong home side to get a result. Sermanni needs to be prepared to face SBFC’s 4-2-3-1 by changing his 4-3-3 formation to something that works to give better match ups for his side.

Orlando will need to be more physical for Saturday’s match without giving up fouls to the home side in dangerous spots. Orlando will need to take the ball up the flanks, and pressure the young Sky Blue defenders with crosses with multiple attacking players making runs inside the box. The Pride can’t push the ball forward with only a couple of players and hope to maintain possession or lob the ball over the top and be successful unless they can break on a quick counter-attack.

I do believe Stanley and the Orlando defense will have enough to keep the Sky Blue attack in check. This is one of the best opportunities to get the first road win of the season, putting to an end an 11-match road winless streak dating back to last year. One of the Pride’s secondary attacking option will need to make an impact to keep defenses honest, and create some space for Marta or Camila who should be taking the ball into the 18 if the Pride play direct or off a cross from one of the backs getting forward. This test will finally convince doubters that Orlando is a legit team. Orlando will get its first victory over Sky Blue and win 2-1.

6 Takeaways From NWSL: Week Six

Posted on by RJ Allen

Week 6 of the NWSL season has come and gone. This was probably the most normal week of the NWSL season yet. But just when you started to get comfortable, midweek games are starting to appear. So to prepare you for Week 7, let’s look back at our takeaways from the last round of games.

Sky Blue FC & Portland No Strangers to Earning Penalty Kicks – Luis Hernandez

Alright, it’s no secret around here, I’ve followed the Orlando Pride since the beginning. When you support a new team, there’s always going to be a series of firsts to look forward to which will be a part of team history. Steph Catley recorded the first goal for the team, and she also provided the first assist last year. What’s my point? I’m still waiting for a PRO referee to point to the spot for Orlando, even though the Pride top the Fouls Suffered list.

Ending Week 6, Sky Blue FC and the Portland Thorns both earned a penalty kick which helped them get a positive result. In fact, Sky Blue has had four PKs called in their favor and the Thorns has had three so far. This isn’t an accident because last year both teams led the league in Penalty Kick Attempts, four PKA in 20 games. Remember, it’s Week 6 and Sarah Killion has four penalty kick goals this season alone, while Nadia Nadim has three. I don’t know if both teams can keep that pace up, but how do you explain those numbers? Either the clubs are being coached a specific way, or the soccer gods, or, I don’t know, PRO, but it’s something.

 

Pride Show Grit to Take a Point in Seattle – Luis Hernandez

It wasn’t pretty, and it surely wasn’t the way Coach Tom Sermanni expected his side to leave Memorial Stadium. However, I’m sure he’ll take the road point considering he lost team captain Ashlyn Harris to a hip injury, and had to call on recently signed Caroline Stanley since the normal backup goalkeeper was out with a concussion. It’s doubtful Stanley has been in Orlando the full week, but she took the field like a pro.

The point in Seattle demonstrates how much the second-year team has matured, and the improvements Sermanni has been able to make from one year to the next. Last season, the Pride fell to the Reign when they put up five goals on the less than stellar Orlando defense. At times, the Pride had to do everything it could to absorb the Seattle pressure, but as a team, Orlando was able to withstand it. Last year’s team could easily have given up more goals. There is something to be said for the feeling of seeing growth and improvement from the Pride who could only manage one draw last season.

Shea Groom Will Never Stop Going – Jordan Small

When Shea Groom exited the field after being subbed off this weekend, the first thing she did when she got with the trainer at the bench was to remove the huge piece of protective equipment that was covering her side. Groom has been playing since Week 1 with a broken rib on her left side. Yet somehow, she keeps going. She has not pulled back on a challenge and is still a very important piece to the physical front line of FCKC.

In the post-game press conference, head coach Vlatko Andonovski spoke about how they are trying to be careful with Groom because they don’t want this to turn into a situation where she is out for months. However, he said that she doesn’t want to ever slow down and they are playing on a fine line with her. While she may not be scoring for KC, the fact that she is out there every week is simply incredible.

The Three Back is Struggling in the NWSL – Jordan Small

Six weeks into the season, we have seen many teams attempt a three-back. Many have tried and many have failed at this experiment. The latest example of this was Chicago’s dismantling of the North Carolina Courage backline today. With that, it is hard to believe that any teams will continue to attempt this system. It’s just not working.

We’ve also seen Seattle and Washington try their hands at the tricky backline, but both have now gone back to the traditional four back. This is honestly for the best. It is very difficult to play a three-back week in and week out because of the high quality of strikers in this league. It’s one thing for the national teams to try it, but it’s a whole different ball game in the NWSL.

Rocky Rodriguez is Good at Scoring – Leigh Nieves

Maybe it was Raquel Rodriguez’s pre-game story that aired on Lifetime before Sky Blue’s face off with Houston, but the girl was on fire during their Saturday match. She drew their PK in the 19th minute to give them a 1-0 lead and also scored the game-winner in the 85th minute allowing Sky Blue to leave with three points.

The reigning Rookie of the Year has been in the shadow of Sarah Killion so far this season, since Killion is currently the league’s all-time leading goal scorer, but all signs are pointing to Rodriguez just starting to warm up. 

Beverly Yanez Remains Consistent – Leigh Nieves

Yanez has been a part of the Reign since 2014. She also has scored 15 goals in that time, three of which have been during this season. On a team where that often sings high praises of players like Megan Rapinoe, Jess Fishlock, Naho Kawasumi, and Kim Little (until she returned home to play for Arsenal L.F.C.), Yanez is a player that has often been overlooked. This could be a testament to the strength of some of the Reign’s strikers, but Beverly has been a consistent staple for the team since her arrival and 2017 seems no different. 

Those are our takeaways from Week 6 of the NWSL. So Week 7, whatcha got for us? We want to hear from you on these and any thoughts you may have. Consider leaving us a comment, and we’ll see you with new takeaways next week!

Unsung Hero of the Week: Rapinoe Brings Purple Reign

Posted on by RJ Allen

In this weekly series, I will be highlighting a player from the weekend who was their respective team’s unsung hero, win or lose. A player who does the dirty work, does the little but important things in a game and someone who didn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet but found other ways to contribute.

This week I’ve chosen Seattle Reign FC forward Megan Rapinoe.

Rapinoe has been one of the original Seattle fan-favorites since 2013, when the National Women’s Soccer League began. Making 46 appearances while scoring 22 goals for the Reign, Rapinoe has been a key part of Seattle’s rise to the top of the NWSL over the last five years. But after tearing her ACL with the National Team in December 2015, Rapinoe’s appearances with her club team have been limited, and when she does take the pitch, she’s been a little rusty.

But now, I think we can all say with confidence: Pinoe’s back, baby.

Seattle 1-1 Orlando:

Throughout the first six weeks, Seattle has had a kind of Jekyll and Hyde feel about them, while Orlando’s start has been a little underwhelming, to say the least, until their surprise win over the NC Courage in Week 5.  So no one was particularly surprised as the match started and the Reign started out strong, dominating early possession. The Reign are considered one of the best clubs at home and currently have a 10 match undefeated run at their Memorial Stadium home. Orlando, on the other hand, have yet to earn a win in their last 13 away games.

One of the biggest difference makers for me in this match was the 31-year-old Rapinoe, who was vital in the Reign maintaining possession throughout the match and controlling the pace of the game.

One of the best parts about Rapinoe’s game is her passing ability. An early example of this was in the seventh minute of the game, when Rapinoe checked into space near the midfield, her back to the opposing goal, to receive a pass from Christine Nairn. With one last quick shoulder check on her defender, Rapinoe took a single touch with her right and sent a lovely ball towards Jess Fishlock, who was wide-open and charging into Orlando’s eighteen yard-box territory at the time.

In this instance, the Pride’s defensive back Alanna Kennedy was able to slide over just in time to force a crunching tackle, and both players got tangled up trying to win the ball. But what many people may overlook in watching the ball is how Rapinoe not only knew where Fishlock was running too in that split second, but gave Fishlock a real chance with her placement of the ball.

One reason it’s difficult to defend the Reign is because they are known as a technical team, they love the one-touch passing game and time and time again, they are synchronized moving up into the attack. This season, Seattle are working with a 4-3-3 formation, pushing Rapinoe up top with fellow veterans Bev Yanez and Nahomi Kawasumi.  The attack is supported by a well-connected midfield, composed of Fishlock, Christine Nairn and Rumi Utsugi. But the most important part of the Reign’s dominance on the pitch is that all the players mentioned above–Rapinoe and her teammates in the front and midfield–are interchangeable on the field.  Each one of them could swap positions on the pitch at any point and perform to Laura Harvey’s exacting standards. That’s how they create so many quality chances and in doing do, currently lead the league in Goals (15), Assists (10), Shots on Goal (39) and are second in Shots overall (73).

Rapinoe was busy all game long finding space and getting service to her teammates in critical areas. In fact, the lone goal for Seattle came off service from that special right foot in the 40th minute. After the second consecutive corner found its way back to Rapinoe out wide, she whipped in a tantalizing ball that sent Orlando backup goalkeeper Caroline Stanley out to the six-yard box to only land a weak punch that landed the ball at Rachel Corsie’s feet. Corsie, then, deflected the ball toward Yanez, who scored with a beautiful tap-in.

But remember. It all started with Rapinoe. With Rapinoe not giving up on the right side after a few minutes down in their end, making the decision to continue pressing forward toward goal and pressuring the Pride’s defensive with her service.

The goal–the point, the eventual draw–it all started with Megan Rapinoe.

While Seattle are sitting in fourth place with two wins, one loss, and three draws, they once again have the talent and leadership to make it back to a familiar place–the coveted NWSL Championship game. If Rapinoe can continue to find the back of the net (four goals so far in 2017, second in the league) while also finding opportunities for her teammates, it just may be Reigning in October.

Orlando Pride: Sticking to the Plan Will Earn a Result

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Orlando Pride will head to the Pacific Northwest once again this week to take on the highest scoring team in the league, the Seattle Reign.

The Pride, coming off the team’s first win of the season, take a ten-match road winless streak to Memorial Stadium. Orlando’s last road win, which is also the only road win in team history, came against the Houston Dash – ironically in Week 6. The talk from the Pride going in to face the Reign is to focus on their game more so than worrying on what Seattle plans to do in the match.

The Pride have been able to find some consistency on the backline with the budding partnership of Alanna Kennedy and Toni Pressley. The number of goals Orlando has given up has been significantly reduced since Pressley fought her way into the starting XI.

When asked if she can further improve this season Pressley shared, “I think I have a few more levels.”

They will need to concentrate on communication to close down passing lanes from Nahomi Kawasumi, Week 4 Player of the Week, to United States Women’s National Team player – and current leader in the golden boot race – Megan Rapinoe and the rest of the high-powered Seattle offense. Last week Orlando’s lone defensive lapse gave Debinha the opportunity to keep the Courage in the match longer than the Pride would have liked, and a team like Seattle will make Orlando pay if they make any mistakes defensively.

The Pride will attempt to dictate the pace of the match against the Reign and utilize the pace of their strikers to challenge goalkeeper Haley Kopmeyer and her backline.

As Coach Tom Sermanni stated in his post-match comments on Mother’s Day, “We just need to make sure we get a defensive structure set up and sorted properly. If you look at our backline, four out of our five are all internationals so we’ve got a decent backline. And if we can get our tactics right, I think we’ve got the players who can exploit the lack of mobility that Seattle has.”

All eyes will once again be on the Orlando midfielders, as Monica is still working her way back from a bone bruise. Dani Weatherholt’s defensive performance and ability to distribute the ball forward has provided space to Camila to go forward as Kristen Edmonds has provide cover for her in the midfield.

As defensive leader, Ali Krieger added in the post-match presser, “If we are good and compact and organized defensively I don’t think that they’re going to have good opportunities but you have to have the ball to do that so hopefully we’re going to have more possession and we’re going to take care of that.”

Playing with the ball more will limit the chances Seattle has in pushing the ball into their attacking third. Additionally, the Pride will need to congest the midfield and passing lanes for the Reign.

If the Pride end up playing the long ball on top, the team will not be playing their game as they have claimed they need to do to get a result in Seattle. Sermanni will have several options at attack. One of his focuses this week, as he stated, is exploiting the lack of mobility on the Reign backline. This is where the tactics will have to be right, and the Pride may look to surprise Seattle with a new look on top, as scoring on the road will be vital to keep pace. Marta will look to create opportunities to Chioma Ubogagu, who can also keep possession of the ball, and Danica Evans, the rookie standout for the Pride.

Orlando has struggled to get results away from home, and this week’s opportunity will be a challenge for them. But the team is brimming with confidence, and if Sermanni’s game plan can give fits to Laura Harvey’s side like they think it can, the Pride will leave Memorial Stadium with a positive result.

Route Two Soccer – Updating Our Priors

Posted on by RJ Allen

I’ve been traveling this week and haven’t had a chance to catch most of the games yet. So in lieu of diagramming a specific match, I wanted to take a broader perspective—taking stock of the league and the teams now that we’re just about 20% through the season.

The NWSL season so far: we haven’t learned as much as we think we have

The persistent problem here (as with every attempt to analyze a complicated system) is the overwhelming force of randomness. Even when probabilities are set in stone, the actual distribution of results is subject to significant fluctuation. For example, if I flip a coin 10 times, I’d expect to get an equivalent number of heads and tails. And indeed, that’s the most likely result. But I’ll only actually get that specific result about one time in four. 40% of the time I’ll get a 6/4 distribution, one way or the other. And almost a third of the time, I’ll get something outside that range.

Point being: you’re often going to get results that look wildly out of line from your expectation. The issue is how to explain this effect. And there are (broadly speaking) three different possibilities:

  1. Sheer random variance. Perhaps we’re just in one of the 33% of worlds where heads came up at a disproportionate rate.
  2. Something has changed. The coin used to be weighted evenly, but due to some unanticipated effect, it has changed. In this case, we should expect results to remain on this new course.
  3. The initial prediction was wrong. Maybe the results are entirely in line with the true probability. It was simply our own misperception that led us to assign the wrong chance to the event.

Depending on which of these is correct, our expectations going forward will shift pretty significantly. So it’s actually quite important to put new information into context and assess where it leaves us now. And the unfortunate reality is that, as human beings, we are often desperate to impose narrative meaning onto randomness. We might know intellectually that it’s perfectly plausible for a coin to come up heads 8 times out of 10, but in our guts we’ll start to wonder if maybe the coin is lucky.

There have been countless studies of this effect, in everything from sports to weather to financial portfolios. Our natural inclination is to over-interpret the significance of the most recent data points and assume that it creates a new trendline which will proceed indefinitely.

Far more likely, though, is that unlikely outliers are just that: outliers. In that case, we should expect reversion to the mean. As time goes on, as we collect more data, results will trend back toward their expected performance and the outliers will be washed out by the accumulation of data.

By way of example, look to North Carolina who appeared to be unbeatable, right up until they lost. Going into the game, with Carolina riding high and Orlando stuck at the bottom of the table, that result may have seemed unlikely. But you only have to go back a month to find quite a few predicting Orlando and Carolina to be in close competition for a playoff spot. Based on that, Orlando winning at home would be thoroughly unsurprising.

But we have learned some things

All that said, while it’s important to not treat recent results as fully dispositive, we also don’t want to dig in too aggressively. After all, even if reversion to the mean is the most likely explanation for an outlier, that doesn’t mean that we know what the mean is.

The point, after all, isn’t that every result is literally random (that in a given match, every team is as likely to win as to lose). The ‘mean’ is simply the most likely result for a given team. For a good team, over time that might stabilize around 2 points per game. For a terrible team, it might stabilize at 0.5 points per game.

The question is how much five games should change our expectations. And this is where qualitative work becomes more important.

When you’ve got a well-designed model, that has been rigorously tested and analyzed, it will often beat expert predictions, even without the ability to draw ‘thick’ qualitative inferences—simply by virtue of processing power.

But, as we all know, soccer is a complicated game, involve a lot of moving parts. And beyond that, the sort of complex modeling that has been developed in some men’s sports simply doesn’t exist for women’s soccer.

The closest we’ve got for the NWSL is the prediction system at Fivethirtyeight, which appears to be a relatively ‘dumb’ model. That is to say: it knows baseline results but not much else. That’s not a terrible thing, since even with a ‘dumb’ model, you’ll generally get a reasonable assessment. It may be dumb, but that is precisely what keeps it from over-correcting sometimes.

Still, while regressing to the mean is a good starting point, you don’t want to completely ignore the information that you can glean from actually watching the games. After all, we’re all familiar with games where one team dominates but ends up losing from one unlucky bounce, or games when a team creates a ton of chances and just can’t manage to finish. The result is ultimately what matters the most, of course. But for predictive purposes, there is a lot more to a game than just the final scoreline. This is one of the key insights of expected goals.

Alright, so how should we interpret events so far?

My default is to approach things from the perspective of Bayesian inference. We build initial predictions based on the best available evidence and then determine how confident we are in those guesses. These are our priors.

As new information filters in, we assess how it comports with our priors. If our priors were strong, we can regard a modest disconnect as perfectly acceptable, requiring no meaningful update of the prediction. Even very good teams play poorly now and again, and we can safely regard this as just the sort of normal variation that comes with a game that includes significant elements of chance.

In cases of weak priors, new information will be more highly valued, since it can help to ease the fog of uncertainty. However, even here it’s important to remember that small sample sizes are inherently unstable. If you were unsure about the quality of a team a month ago, that should likely remain the dominant theme of your analysis.

The key point here is: if your perspective on a team has shifted significantly after five games, you’re probably overestimating the significance of those games and underplaying the importance of all the work that went into the initial prediction. Over the long term, good predictions should be pretty stick—not shifting too quickly except in relatively rare cases of genuine major transformation.

Updating our priors

Taking all that into account, let me walk through a few of the main priors that were widely (but by no means universally) shared going into this season, to see how they’re faring.

  1. Portland, Chicago, and North Carolina as likely playoff teams

Everything still looks good on this front. Neither Portland nor Chicago has yet played particularly well, but they remain at the top of the table. It would be a decent bet to assume both will play better going forward and draw a bit further from the crowd.

Meanwhile, North Carolina has outperformed the other two, and has been widely regarded as the class of the league so far. And through five games, that has been true. Whether we expect that to continue for the next 19 is more of an open question. The weaknesses diagnosed before the season for them haven’t gone away, so it would be at least a little bit surprising if they continued to pace the league by such a large margin.

  1. Washington, Boston, and Houston as challengers for the bottom

These three were generally regarded as the weakest of the league. So far, nothing we’ve seen from Washington or Houston argues strongly against that premise. Both have shown flashes of quality, but both have also struggled mightily.

Boston, however, have been the darlings of league so far, and are being discussed as a legitimate playoff contender. And they are one of the key points of conflict as we attempt to update our predictions. Just how much should one make from their performance so far? Seven points from five games is good, and clearly shows that they are miles better than they were in 2016. On the other hand, any run of the mill bad team will have stretches like that in a season.

Those results, therefore, are perfectly consistent with the prior that said: ‘Boston will be much improved, turning from a dreadful team into a mediocre one.’

The question is whether Boston’s performances have been good enough to challenge that assumption. After all, they thrashed Seattle (who has been very good in their other three recent games), and played very even with two expected playoff contenders (NC and Chicago), even if they only got a solitary point from those games.

From my perspective, this is a case where new information has only increased the uncertainty. It is still quite possible that Boston could drift back down toward the bottom soon. It’s also quite possible that they continue to play at this level and hang around in the playoff race all season. I haven’t seen enough yet to feel confident in either direction. A month from now, we’ll likely be in a far better position to assess their true talent.

  1. Parity

This was the mantra going into the season, and everything so far has supported the idea. While North Carolina remains a full length ahead of the field, everyone else is packed close, with just four points separating 2nd from 10th.

It’s been a season full of surprising results. But that’s hardly surprising in the broader sense. Because when everyone is reasonably close in quality, you should expect a lot of strange results from game to game, while also expecting those to even out over the long term.

  1. Seattle???

One of the biggest peculiarities this year is Seattle, who have performed exceptionally against two weak teams, played a tough draw against Portland, while also looking awful against Sky Blue and Boston. But again, this shouldn’t necessarily be too surprising, as it fits fairly well with the consensus preseason opinion that Seattle was a flawed team with enough talent to beat anyone but enough weaknesses to fall flat against anyone.

Like Boston, they are tough to lock down. But unlike Boston, there’s no particular reason to expect all that much more clarity. Chances are decent that they’ll simply remain like this all year—mixing good and bad performances evenly enough to stay in the playoff hunt without ever giving their supporters much reason to feel safe.

Unsung Hero of the Week: Broon the Broom

Posted on by RJ Allen

In this weekly series, I will be highlighting a player from the weekend who was their respective team’s unsung hero, win or lose. A player who does the dirty work, does the little but important things in a game and someone who didn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet but found other ways to contribute.

This week I’ve chosen FC Kansas City defender Becky Sauerbrunn.

The 31-year-old has been with FCKC since the first year of the club’s existence back in 2013 and has appeared 57 times. And for all that time, the Blues captain has been one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in the women’s game. Everyone knows she’s good, but people don’t quite seem to get just how good she is. Commonly referred to as Broon by fans and media alike, she is quiet, steady, reliable, and hard-working: the sort of player any club or country in the world would love to have.

FCKC 0-0 Portland

Kansas City and Portland each had significant players out due to injury, with Tobin Heath still out for the Thorns and Desiree Scott being added to FCKC’s lengthy injury list. Knowing this, I gave Portland the slight advantage going in. I also had a feeling that it would be a defensive battle, as each team has only given up three goals in five games, tied for best in the league. Portland obviously has a dangerous club on paper, led by Christine Sinclair with a star-studded supporting of Nadia Nadim, Allie Long and Amandine Henry, and more. But Sauerbrunn and her backline held each of these players in check and as a team, Portland mustered just 9 shots total with only two on goal.

Sauerbrunn just doesn’t let anyone get by her. She is calculating, organized and extremely patient in her play. Broon doesn’t have a ton of speed, but has a way of positioning herself to more than make up for it. Where many players would need to race somewhere at top speed, she sees things developing and puts herself in position well in advance of the play. She also rarely gives up free-kicks in dangerous areas, a testament to her awareness and here calm style of play.

An example of her ability to read the game so well was showcased in the 15th minute. Portland were on the quick counter with Haley Raso and Sinclair charging forward into the Blues’ final third. Sauerbrunn tracked 30 yards to snatch a pass that Raso was looking to thread in for Sinclair, cutting off the threat and sliding a cool pass to her keeper Nicole Barnhart. If Sauerbrunn hadn’t read that pass and timed her interception perfectly, Sinclair would’ve had plenty of green in front of her for an enticing 1v1 with Barnhart.

When watching her play, it’s almost as if Sauerbrunn has a magnetic connection with the ball, stopping passes through the middle, long balls over the top, and tough crosses alike. She leads the NWSL with 36 clearances, and you could see plenty of them this weekend. Overall, Portland has a height advantage over FCKC, but every time the ball was served in, Sauerbrunn and Yael Averbuch rose above the crowd to head it away. 

While the offense continues to struggle, it’s safe to say that Sauerbrunn and her defense are already in mid-season form.

The captain moves so gracefully around the pitch and her tackling ability is just as pretty to witness. One instance of it came in the 49th minute, Portland again were on the counter. This time it was Lindsey Horan and Raso executing the break. Horan drew three FCKC defenders to her as she charged into the middle of the 18-yard box. She sprayed a pass to her right that found Raso 10 yards from Barnhart, and wide open. But she wasn’t open for long, because Sauerbrunn raced to cover the space and then executed a clean tackle on Raso who must have been stunned to see such a good opportunity snuffed in the blink of an eye. It was a remarkable tackle, and one that I’ve seen her make hundreds of times. 

And that’s the essence of Sauerbrunn. She does the amazing so often that we grow accustomed to it. But we shouldn’t let that consistency dull our perception of her brilliance.

Sauerbrunn is constantly working on her game and sharpening her skills, and in my opinion, she has become the best center back in the women’s game since stepping onto the world stage in 2008 for the United States Women’s National team. If Sauerbrunn and FCKC can continue this solid defensive play while somehow finding a match to ignite the attack in the coming weeks, Kansas City could very well make it back to the playoffs this year.