Category: Articles

NWSL QuickLook: Week Two

Posted on by RJ Allen

This week, we combine the confusion of overfull rosters following the Boston Breakers shutdown with the return of the Australians from international duty. Predictions are meaningless in the face of such wholesale and paradigmatic abstraction. Plus they are hard to do.

Houston v. Utah – March 30 @ 8 pm ET

Houston: 0-0-1

Utah: 0-0-1

Last week, neither team had their known offensive weapons producing much and the usually reliable Becky Sauerbrunn gave up a (dubious) PK. Utah has a solid defense and, even with Nicole Barnhart out with an injury, Abby Smith’s move from Boston gives them an excellent replacement. Houston surprised everyone by looking composed and competitive against Chicago last week, but also had their scoring coming from an unknown and not the usual or expected. Houston should have the least change in personnel given their short injury report and lack of Aussie internationals, but also the most uncertainty about pulling together a repeat.

North Carolina Courage v. Sky Blue FC – March 31 @ 3 pm ET

North Carolina Courage: 1-0-0

Sky Blue FC: 0-0-0

SBFC makes their season debut, featuring such stars as NJ’s own Carli Lloyd, rookie and recent USWNT call-up Savannah McCaskill, and Shea Groom, acquired via the O’Hara trade this summer. They aren’t being thrown to the lions, because that would be Utah, but the Courage also have a cat crest—what’s with that in this league? Sky Blue has a potent young roster that could really compete this year, but runs the risk of relying too heavily on Lloyd to be a game changer. NC remains loaded with forwards, but saw no tallies from their marquee players (MacDonald, Williams) last week. They do have a solid defense that can hold off most challenges.

Washington v. Orlando – March 31 @ 3:30 pm ET

Washington: 0-1-0

Orlando: 0-0-1

Orlando will no longer live or die on Alex Morgan’s performance, which will be good for them if she’s out with concussion issues. Sydney Leroux hasn’t shown her infamous speed in her return from maternity leave, but Cassius in that #2 “Mommy” jersey was a stunning debut. As for the game, with Marta serving there’s a good chance for a break on any play from any player. Orlando’s defense is solid and their GK Harris good for some great saves, and their offense should be remarkable given the personnel. Washington features more promised future stars than any other roster, but doesn’t have the usual sunsetting veteran star to help build out of the midfield or build the future careers.

Chicago v. Portland – March 31 @ 8:15 pm ET

Chicago: 0-0-1

Portland: 0-1-0
A year ago we’d have billed this as a peek at a potential championship match. This year? Both still have loaded rosters, but so does everyone due to contraction. Portland has a solid core with Canada’s Christine Sinclair as a foundation. Chicago has major injury issues and will still be missing reigning MVP Sam Kerr to national team duty with Australia. Portland gave up some well-known players, but their Boston pickups alone (especially Midge Purce and Ifeoma Onumonu) are a roster improvement on an already-massive talent. Chicago may be missing QB Julie Ertz more than departed scoring leader Christen Press given how they looked a bit lost against Houston last week.

Seattle v. Any Takers

They shouldn’t do byes. The off team should play any challenger who steps up for their spot in the NWSL. By week 9 we’ll have Arsenal Women vs. Jamestown Area Travel U17 fighting for a playoff spot and I welcome the chaos because it’s easier than making real previews and predictions with these heavy rosters and lack of data.

Route Two Soccer: A Strong Start for the Reign

Posted on by RJ Allen

This offseason, the Reign said goodbye to their longtime coach Laura Harvey, and quite a few players as well. For many fans, this movement was disconcerting. Even for those who liked the changes in principle, there was plenty of concern about how long it would take them to get everything organized.

One week in, it’s still far too early to draw any serious conclusions. But the news so far is good. In this column, I want to take a quick look at the Reign’s first match, and see what it tells us about the new Vlatko Andonovski regime.

The team set up in a 4-3-3, which was hardly surprising. It was very similar to how they played under Harvey, and quite similar to the way Vlatko’s FCKC teams often played as well. The personnel available definitely creates some flexibility here, with both Allie Long and Jess Fishlock able to play a holding role, allowing them to shift easily back and forth between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 depending on game state. Against Washington, they spent the majority of the game on the front foot, allowing Long to generally play as a single holding midfielder, while giving her and Fishlock freedom to interchange as necessary.

Getting the most out of Allie Long

This is a role Long has played before, but rarely excelled in. She’s a solid defender in one-on-one situations, and her good workrate allows her to be a disruptive force, but her lack of positional discipline has always prevented her from truly excelling at the job of shielding the backline. Further, her tendency to dither on the ball is risky for a player tasked with winning the ball and distributing it quickly from dangerous positions. Finally, playing her deep tends to limit her opportunities to crash into the box—one of the most important qualities of her game.

In this game, however, Long looked transformed. All those good qualities were present, and she looked far more confident managing play. Gone were the tentative stabs that opened up space behind her. Gone was the player who often fell under some tough challenges, conceding possession in dangerous zones. She seemed far more locked into the holding role, and played it far better than she generally has managed.

She still isn’t the most dynamic passer—generally opting for static sideways balls if at all possible—but that’s really the only complaint to be found about her play. She was even able to pick and choose a fair number of opportunities to get forward and contribute in the box.

It’s never a good idea to draw firm conclusions from one game, particularly against a team as young and raw as this Washington side. But at least on the first impression, Coach Andonovski surely will have been pleased to see the Long and Fishlock partnership work out so well.

The magical Rapinoe

The Megan Rapinoe renaissance continues apace. She put on a show in this game, absolutely bamboozling Taylor Smith on multiple occasions, ranging far and wide to get the ball, shooting at will, and playing plenty of beautiful passes as well. It was a majestic game, from a player who may have lost half a step of pace, but who has more than made up for it with guile and precision.

That said, it’s once again worth mentioning the opposition. Taylor Smith had a great year in 2017, but hasn’t looked nearly as solid so far in 2018. Her first half here was particularly rough, as she persistently overcommitted only to find herself turned and chasing Rapinoe. She also struggled enormously trying to establish a working partnership on with Whitney Church—whose lack of pace exposed huge gaps in the right side of the defense.

Jodie Taylor also deserves credit. While she didn’t provide any singular moments to rival those of Rapinoe, her presence was felt all through the night. Seattle desperately needed a true #9 last year to establish a point of attack, soak up pressure, and give Rapinoe and Naho someone to play off. With Taylor, they’ve now got one, and it brought the attack into clear focus.

A backline full of options

All of the key performances for Seattle took place in the front six, but there’s plenty worth discussing in the back half of the pitch as well. We should begin by noting the incredible depth of the Seattle defense. The five starters last night are all excellent, but you could conduct a complete line change and replace them with five more top-level players. After all, they were missing two starters away on international duty (Lydia Williams in goal and Steph Catley at left back) and another (Yael Averbuch) to illness. Then consider names like Christen Westphal, Maddie Bauer, and Kristen McNabb and you’ve got two full defensive units that could easily be starting.

Of the group that started this game, the clearest positive story was Theresa Nielsen, whose first game in the league went very well. Many have suggested that the combination of Nielsen and Catley gives Seattle the best fullback duo in the league, and on the evidence of the night, there seems to be a lot to that. She is a dynamic player who will do a lot to settle the position for them. On the other side, Utsugi did fine, not blowing down any doors but getting the job done. It seems like she will be a nice luxury for Andonovski this year: a seasoned player who probably doesn’t start when everyone is healthy, but who can cover virtually any midfield or defensive position in a pinch.

At center back, Lauren Barnes looked a bit shaky. She has been a mainstay at Seattle for years, but appears to be in one of those phases that often hit players as they emerge out of their peak years: still good, but struggling to adapt to a slight loss of physical performance. It will be worth watching to see whether Averbuch slots immediately in as a starter once she’s healthy. On a team with fewer options, both would certainly be expected to play every day, but on a team with depth, some rotation might serve both players best, giving them time for rest and recovery to allow full exertion when they’re called on.

Finally, Michelle Betos put on quite a show in her first game back in the NWSL since she departed after the 2016 season. It was a vintage Betos performance, with some impressive sweeping, a few nice saves, and a few moments to set the heart racing. Williams should still be expected to start once she returns, but at a bare minimum Betos showed that Seattle have solid depth in the position.

Verdict still out, but a promising start

Ultimately, one game is only one game. Things could still very easily go wrong. But one theme coming into the year was concern that it might take Vlatko time to get everyone working together, to imprint his vision, and to establish the sort of style he wants to see. With five new players (many of them down the spine of the team), more new players to come, and a new coach, it would be understandable if things hadn’t really gelled. Instead, they hit the ground running.

Last year, Seattle finished fifth, five points off of a playoff spot. The four teams who finished ahead of them can’t have liked what they saw on Saturday night.

The NWSL QuickCap: Week One

Posted on by RJ Allen

*Announcer voice* And here is your weekly recap of NWSL games.

Actually, I hate talking. That’s why I write. And I have no idea what sort of voice I’ll be writing in as this goes. Newsy? Sardonic? Trolling? Quickly fired? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Anyway, *Announcer voice* here is your weekly recap of NWSL games.

North Carolina defeated Portland 1-0 in a rematch of last year’s final, except for Long, Hatch, Henry and various other notable names moved in a very busy offseason. Per the internet, because I’m always at mass during the Lifetime Random Live Sporting Event Without Lead In or Follow Up, the one goal was by Débora Cristiane de Oliveira, but you can call her Debhina.

In a battle of the two newest teams in the league, Orlando and Utah tied 1-1. Utah, looking remarkably like FCKC but with Kelley O’Hara and without Shea Groom—and coached by Laura Harvey—gave up a PK (converted by Marta) on an iffy Sauerbrunn handball. Utah’s first franchise goal came from Gunnhildur Yrsa Jónsdóttir, taking up the mantle of Only Icelandic Player in the NWSL as Dagný Brynjarsdóttir is on maternity leave. Notable from this game may not be the lack of finishing from either side, but the collision between Utah’s GK Abby Smith (late of Boston) and Orlando’s Alex Morgan (late of Epcot) that has Morgan in the concussion protocol.

Seattle is currently the highest-scoring team in the league, following a 2-1 win over Washington. Megan Rapinoe, looking to continue her strong form from last season, and England’s Jodie Taylor, scored in the first half for the Reign, and Joanna Lohman struck for the rebuilt Washington in the second. This game featured the return of Michelle Betos to NWSL, in net for Seattle. While only traditional Hot Take specialists are up in arms at this point, the Spirit featuring the future of the USWNT in Mallory Pugh, Rose Lavelle (injured) and Andi Sullivan will surely be under the microscope as the season progresses.

In the most surprising result of the week, Houston showed up. Oh, there’s more. They were competitive and controlled much of the game, leading 1-0 on a Kimberly Keever (no profile picture on the NWSL site, even) goal until Chicago’s Taylor Comeau equalized at 90’+2. With Sam Kerr on Matildas duty and Ertz and Short among the injuries, Chicago is probably going to look very different in future games.

Sky Blue had the bye.

So bye. Until next week.

Points of Pride: Week One vs Utah Royals FC

Posted on by RJ Allen

Greetings, friends, and welcome to the first installment of Points of Pride. Each week, I’ll give three takeaways, two match quotes, and one point to look for going forward into the next match. For the first edition, the Orlando Pride hosted the Utah Royals FC in the Pride home opener and first-ever match for the Royals.

At the final whistle, the score was a 1-1 draw, which sees Tom Sermanni’s side claim an opening day point for the first time in its three year history. Laura Harvey’s side is going home feeling hard done by the referee and the questionable penalty kick which allowed Marta to equalize for the home side. Let’s look at my three takeaways from the game:

Three Takeaways

Most people will be talking about the referee instead of the game

The biggest takeaway for most people is going to be the performance of the referee, Danielle Chesky, who was also in the spotlight as the head referee for last season’s NWSL championship match. For most folks, the penalty awarded to the Pride on a supposed Becky Sauerbrunn handball—on the replay, the ball seemed to hit Sauerbrunn in the face—was the wrong call. It allowed the Pride to equalize when the team’s defensive lapse in the third minute had given Gunny Jonsdottir the opportunity to give the visitors the opening goal. After the match, Chesky answered the pool reporter’s questions by stating she “had a clear view of the incident” and referring to Sauerbrunn, said, “the arms were in an unnatural position and was determined to deliberately handle the ball” [sic].  The Utah defender was also issued a yellow card for unsporting behavior.

Orlando Pride looked disjointed

The expectation coming into the season for Orlando was the offense was going to pick up where it left off last season as the highest-scoring team in the league. However, there was little rhythm in the ball moment for the Pride, and many times instead of turning and going for goal the team would turn and play the ball back. Instead of growing into the game, Orlando seemed unsure at times, missing passes and getting dispossessed. In the second half, once Alex Morgan was subbed out due to a head injury, Sermanni’s side was only able to generate two shots, one being on target. He addressed this post-match, attributing the lack of sharpness to a short preseason and players still getting to know each other.

A point is still a point

Prior to this season, the Pride have started on the road in Portland. Each trip to Providence Park left the Pride with a road loss and zero points to show for it. This time around, the schedule makers decided to have an NWSL championship rematch with the Courage hosting the Thorns, which left Orlando free to host league newcomer Utah. Regardless what some fans may think after yesterday’s performance, the Pride is happy to start the season with one point heading to Maryland to take on the rebuilt Washington Spirit.

Two Quotes From the Game

Orlando Pride Head Coach Tom Sermanni: “When you consider we had five new starters on the field tonight, when you consider we virtually, like most teams, had no preseason, I’m satisfied that we’ve come out and kept our run in the league going from last year and not losing the game. That was important. We’re one point better off than we’ve been at the start of the first two seasons in the league.”

Utah Royals FC Head Coach Laura Harvey: “I mean, I don’t want to get fined, but it’s hard to come here and not come away with three points when you concede the penalty that we did. What I don’t get is how the linesman watches the replay and still gives it. It blows my mind. So I don’t want to get fined, but it just has to be better and every year we say the same. Every year we’re told that they’ve been better… I just don’t get it… and Becky Sauerbrunn literally has a Nike swoosh on her face. It’s tough.”

One Thought for Next Week

The Orlando Pride will be without the services of Brazilian internationals Marta, Monica, and Poliana as they depart to join their national team for World Cup qualifying at Copa America Femenina for CONMEBOL. The team might be further shorthanded if star striker Alex Morgan—who left the game shortly before halftime after a blow to the head with a collision with Utah goalkeeper Abby Smith—isn’t cleared for play next week. While the team is sure to announce more national team replacement player signings, there was a lack of offense in the first match and coach Sermanni is going to have to evaluate the health of his squad to see who will be able to provide the goals needed to get results. Additional pressure will be placed on Sydney Leroux, especially if there’s no Morgan to play off of in the final third. Where will the goals be coming from when the expectations for this offense are so high?

There you have it: the three, two, one for the first week of Points of Pride. Let’s hope for smoother sailing at the ‘plex for the women in purple. 

If you want more of thought of Luis you can tune in to Quick Kicks. Quick Kicks is live on YouTube every Tuesday at 8:30 pm ET. 

Interviews with Emma: Jess McDonald

Posted on by RJ Allen

Emma Bayer is an 11-year-old who does a recurring interview series for Backline Soccer. You can find more out about how Emma got into soccer here.

Jess McDonald has played in quite a few cities during her career; Chicago, Seattle, Portland, Houston, Rochester, New York, and currently Cary, North Carolina. She scored in double figures in two of those seasons. She also played with the Melbourne Victory in the Australian W-League for one season.

Birthdate:

February 28, 1988.

Nickname from teammates:

Jessy Mac, Jess Mac, Jessy Jess, or Jess.

Hometown:

Phoenix, Arizona.

Age started playing:

12

College/major:

Phoenix College and the University of North Carolina. History.

Career aspirations after soccer:

Consulting people to live a healthier lifestyle.

Why did you pick your particular uniform:

My big brother, Brandon McDonald, has been an idol of mine my whole life. His number was 14, so I thought I would continue to follow in his footsteps.

Pregame meal:

Pancakes with eggs, and sometimes bacon.

Workout music:

Hip Hop and African Music.

Favorite cartoon character:

Tweety Bird.

Fave movie:

Bad Moms.

Fave actor:

Male, Will Smith. Female, Mila Kunis.

Hidden talent:

I can flutter my eyes very fast.

Mentor (in soccer or life):

My big brother, Brandon McDonald.

Fave charity/cause:

Compassion Experience.

Life motto:

I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me. Phil 4:13

Superstitions:

None.

Pets:

A corn snake and a betta fish.

If you were going on Amazing Race, which teammate would you want as a partner, and why?

Abby Erceg, the woman is simply not human.

If you had your own reality show, what would it be called?

The Life of Jess McDonald.

The Deep Dive: 5 Things Every NWSL Fan Should Do This Season

Posted on by RJ Allen

Congratulations, women’s soccer fans! We made it! The season has officially begun and we can all breathe a sigh of relief. No longer will we have to go through NWSL withdrawals. No longer will we have to mark down the days on our calendars. No longer will we have to wonder if the schedule will be released. Because it’s here, and there are so many things to look forward to this season. So let’s take a deep dive, and explore five ways we all can make the most out of this season:

  1. Watch With The Enemy

This season I challenge everyone to go to an away game for the team that you root for. There is something cathartic about going into the lion’s den and holding your own. It builds character as a fan. You have to hold your own, keep your chin up, and still rep your colors regardless of where you are and who is surrounding you. The players appreciate it, and so will you. Now, I know this is not always financially or geographically possible for a lot of fans, so the next best alternative is to watch from home with a supporter of the other team. It’s not equivalent, but will give you some of the same feeling.

  1. Buy Some Swag

One of the best ways to support your team, and the NWSL, while also getting pumped for this upcoming season, is to buy some new team gear. There are some phenomenal new products out there. Whether it is the latest Seattle Reign jersey, or the fresh Sky Blue FC snapback, there is something out there for every fan. It also automatically helps you pick out your weekend outfits for the next seven months. Win/Win.

  1. Invite A Friend

You know what’s great? Watching soccer with a buddy. You know what can be even better? Watching soccer with a friend who isn’t already a fan. That friend will also end up having a kick-ass time being part of the experience. They might come away a die-hard Chicago Red Stars fan and get you fly across the country next season for a game (I may or may not be speaking from experience). In any case, not only does it help grow the women’s soccer fan community, but it also makes you appreciate the game just a little bit more—that non-fan friend will point something out that you’ve taken for granted for years. Don’t be a fan snob. Accept the newbie. Love the newbie. Cherish the newbie.

  1. Watch A Game With No Stakes

So often we get wrapped up in only watching our favorite team play, or we watch another match to see how it could potentially impact our team’s standing. All that is fine, and generally leads to exciting, edge-of-your-seat moments. But watching a match that you have absolutely no stake in can really bring you back in touch what it is that you love about the game itself—not who you love in it. This leads to more intelligent debates between fans, newfound appreciation for lesser-known players, and a more intense focus on techniques and skill sets. All of that might actually be useful when it comes back around to evaluating your own team and their chances against these opponents in the future. But even if there’s no utility, you can just have some fun with the game itself.

  1. Shout It Out

Here in America, not everyone is a soccer fan. I get it. But that doesn’t mean we can’t be a loud, vivacious, attractive nuisance of a minority, right? So shout it out. Let the world hear about your love of the game and your team. Talk to people about how much you appreciate Jess Fishlock’s attack, or how great the Utah Royals are going to be this year. My new boss has never watched a soccer match in his life, but after only two months of having me as an employee he sure-as-shit knows who Sam Kerr is. Why? Because I make sure that everyone knows about it when I get excited for this game. Word of mouth is how we help to keep this league and this sport growing—by showing it to the world loudly, and with purpose.

There are plenty of ways that you can go all out this NWSL season. These are just five. But no matter what, make sure you tune in, watch, and share. It’s too good not to.

Utah Royals FC Preview: Can They be a Contender?

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Utah Royals FC are the newest NWSL team on the scene. However, after a quick game of musical chairs this fall, the team secured an experienced head coach and a veteran lineup.

On November 7, the Seattle Reign announced that Laura Harvey was stepping down and FC Kansas City head coach Vlatko Andonovski would take her place. Nine days later, MLS owner Dell Loy Hansen announced women’s professional soccer would arrive to the Salt Lake Valley in 2018. 

By November 20, the league ceased operations of FC Kansas City and announced players would be reallocated to the Utah franchise. Seven days later, Harvey was named the new coach of the yet-to-be-named franchise.

Come March 24, the Royals will open their inaugural season against the Orlando Pride. Here is what you need to know about Harvey and company. 

Head Coach: Laura Harvey (First season with Utah, sixth season in NWSL)

2017 record: FC Kansas record 8-9-7

Projected Starting XI:

Goalkeeper: Nicole Barnhart

Defenders: Kelley O’Hara, Rachel Corsie, Becky Sauerbrunn, Becca Moros

Midfielders: Lo’eau LaBonta, Diana Matheson, Desiree Scott

Forwards: Amy Rodriguez, Katie Stengel, Brittany Ratcliffe

Player you should know:

Canadian midfielder Diana Matheson is definitely a player every women’s soccer fan should know. She was an integral part of the success of the Washington Spirit club that made its first NWSL Championship appearance in 2016.  She signed with the Seattle Reign last year but missed the 2017 season after tearing her ACL (left knee) playing with Canada last February. Matheson returned to the Canadian National Team for the 2018 Algarve Cup and followed Harvey from Seattle to Salt Lake City.

Under the Radar:

Taylor Lytle collected five assists for Sky Blue FC last season. She is deceptively quick and crafty in the midfield. “She is a player I have admired for a while now,” said Harvey in a December press release. “In Taylor, we have a player who has been a stalwart for Sky Blue over five seasons; whenever I would coach against her, she would always cause my team problems, so I’m now very glad that we are on the same team … we expect that bringing in someone like Taylor who has such a great attitude for the game will only enhance our roster.”

Biggest offseason acquisition:

Kelley O’Hara coming over from Sky Blue FC was the largest get for the team formerly known as FCKC. O’Hara has proven she can play anywhere on the pitch and make an impact. Sky Blue FC often relied on O’Hara’s versatility. It will be interesting to see how Harvey utilizes O’Hara. She is fast, fit and an absolute tank of a player.

Biggest rival:

Harvey and Vlatko Andonovski have essentially swapped teams. Andonovski led five of the current Utah Royals to back-to-back championships in 2014-15. Additionally, Andonovski may have something to prove after two disappointing seasons. If he can keep the Reign in the top five teams, it is very possible that those June and July match-ups versus Utah will be important. 

Most memorable moment from 2017:

N/A, unless being relocated counts.

Why they’re the team to watch in 2018:

First, one look at the roster and one notices big names in the game. Canadian Olympic medalists Desiree Scott and Diana Matheson (2012) join American Olympians Nicole Barnhart (2008, 2012), Becky Sauerbrunn (2012, 2016), Amy Rodriguez (2008, 2012) and Kelly O’Hara (2012) for a star-studded roster. The latter three are also reigning FIFA World Cup Champions.

Additionally, Harvey has secured her lineup with solid role players such as Becca Moros, Corsie and Taylor Lytle. This team has enough stars to be a contender, but also has a good balance of role players to grind out the ups and downs of an NWSL season.

Harvey is a masterful coach with two NWSL Shields for the Seattle Reign. She led her team to two-consecutive NWSL postseason appearances. Additionally, the Utah Royals franchise has invested a great deal of resources in its newest team. From facilities to vehicles for the players, the Royals are investing in women’s soccer in America like no other club.

Predicted finish:

It’s reasonable to expect a solid performance from the Royals. However, with all the trades in the offseason, they are not the only team with significant roster changes.  Harvey does not have a top five 2017 goal scorer on her squad. However, Barnhart led the league in saves (97) last season.

I expect this team to be middle of the pack with a chance at the playoffs. So, in numerical terms, I have them finishing sixth. Although, this may be a conservative prediction.

Success depends on:

Staying healthy. Both Matheson and Rodriguez are coming off major injuries. Sauerbrunn has also missed time with the National Team due to injury. Utah is missing a superstar in the true sense of the word. This is a team likely to work best when all its players are at peak performance. 

Fun prediction:

In case you didn’t know, Broon is a gamer!  She is especially fond of Tomb Raider and recently participated in the #TombRaiderTraining challenge. I predict she will continue to film video game or movie-inspired training sessions throughout the season. Honestly, who doesn’t want to see that?

Route Two Soccer: 2018 NWSL Season Predictions

Posted on by RJ Allen

Predictions are a mug’s game, but I’m a mug, so here we are. For these predictions, I’ve assigned an order, and my rough estimation of the chance of each team making the playoffs. What should quickly become clear is that I think this league has four tiers, with clear separation between the tiers but very little separation within them. Ultimately, I see five very good teams in the league and several other solid contenders. Given the cold hard math of the situation, that means that at least one team who projects to be very good is going to miss the playoffs. That’s an unfortunate reality for the team (or teams) who miss out, but it suggests we should be in for an exciting season.

As I go through each team, I’ll first explain why I picked them in that spot and then lay out the best case for why I might be wrong.

Tier One: No Weaknesses

1. North Carolina Courage (80% chance of making the playoffs)

Why they’ll finish first: The defining strength of this team is their depth. Unlike the other title challengers, they aren’t truly dependent on any particular player. While they certainly wouldn’t like to see Sam Mewis, Lynn Williams, or Abby Erceg knocked out by a serious injury, there’s no doubt that they could compensate for the loss of even several key components. I’m not sure any other team in the league can say that, which is why NC is in a tier of their own. The two big questions are how they’ll integrate Crystal Dunn and what they’ll do about the fullback positions. One possible answer to both questions would be a version of a back three—which would keep the defense solid while allowing their wide runners to function more as wingbacks than true fullbacks. But whatever solution they come up with, they should be fine.

Why I might be wrong: Several years ago, the Seattle Reign were a dominant force… right up until they weren’t. Teams often fade more quickly than you’d expect, and North Carolina could be the next victim. It might be unreasonable to expect another career year from Zerboni, or a fully healthy season from Mewis. And if the midfield falters, some of the weaknesses in the back line could get exposed. Their style of play also takes a lot of energy, and might leave them pretty run down by the end of the season. I’d still bet on NC making the playoffs, but it’s not at all impossible to see them struggling across the line, rather than racing ahead to seize the Shield.

Tier Two: Great Teams with Minor Danger Areas

2. Portland Thorns (60%)

Why they’ll finish second: Portland lost a few key players, but has done a lot to make up for it. Andressinha is already good, and surrounded by quality teammates might be on the verge turning into a superstar. Midge Purce could be a huge addition, adding pace and a wide attacking edge. Carpenter, the 17-year-old Australian, is an exciting young talent. And so on. Ultimately, the strength of this team is similar to North Carolina: they can probably survive a few bumps in the road without seriously derailing their season.

Why I might be wrong: There’s enough talent on this team to blow the doors off the opposition. So it wouldn’t shock me to see them take the pole position all season. On the other hand, there are a lot more uncertainties here than they’d probably like. Their setup leans quite heavily on getting strong seasons from players up and down the spine. A long absence from Lindsey Horan could leave them pretty weak in the center of the pitch. Any serious problems with either of the starting center backs could expose the backline. And while there’s a lot of potential in the attack, they don’t really have a surefire goal-scorer. If the offense sputters a bit, and the defense is less solid, Portland suddenly starts to look a bit more ordinary. It would be surprising to see them miss the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be shocking.

3. Seattle Reign (60%)

Why they’ll finish third: Washington is clearly the most improved team this year, but in any normal offseason, the Seattle makeover would be the one that had everyone raving. They acquired two top-level veteran defenders (Megan Oyster and Yael Averbuch), one of the world’s best fullbacks (Steph Catley), a world-class striker (Jodie Taylor), a useful USWNT fringe player (Allie Long), some fantastic depth options (Morgan Andrews, Elizabeth Addo, Christen Westphal), and held onto players like Jess Fishlock, Megan Rapinoe, and Nahomi Kawasumi. Put it together and you have a roster that rivals anyone in the league. Oh, and while they lost Laura Harvey, they replaced her with Vlatko Andonovski, probably the only other comparable coaching talent in the league. It’s still an open question how they manage to put it all together, and it’s not unreasonable to expect some problems as they get started. But this is a very good team.

Why I might be wrong: My prediction puts a lot of faith in Andonovski’s ability to get everything working together. There was a lot of turnover in the roster, and it might not all fit together easily. Further, for all their depth in most positions, the midfield could be a little shaky. If Fishlock were to miss significant time, I’m not sure they have a viable replacement. If the team gels, they could win the league. If not, they find themselves trapped in a bunch of drab 1-1 draws, and end up seeing the playoffs slip just past their grip.

4. Chicago Red Stars (55%)

Why they’ll finish fourth: Losing Christen Press is a huge problem, unless you can manage to replace her with Sam Kerr. That’s particularly true since Kerr seems to fit Rory Dames’s style better than Press ever did. Given that, and given the continuity everywhere else in the roster, it feels like Chicago are in good position to do at least as well as they did last year. However, there are a couple mitigating factors. First, despite all the talent on the roster, Chicago just weren’t actually all that good last year. They made the playoffs, but with a goal difference of just +3. Do that again this year and they could very easily miss out. Second, many of their competitors have improved a lot, making this a bit of a Red Queen race—where you have to run faster just to stay even. Third, Chicago’s luck with injuries for most of last season seems to have truly worn off. They dragged a lot at the end of 2017 and come into 2018 with a host of new ailments. Put it all together and you’ve got a great team which should be fine, but which would be devastated by the loss of Kerr or Julie Ertz.

Why I might be wrong: Sam Kerr is probably the best striker on the planet right now. Put her into a team with a rock-solid defensive unit, and that’s a recipe for a bunch of 1-0 victories. And if Dames can get his offense moving again, they could be truly explosive. On the other side, while it’s pretty hard to see Chicago really struggling this year, there are a lot of good teams in the league. Merely being good might not be enough to make the playoffs this year.

5. Orlando Pride (50%)

Why they’ll finish fifth: Orlando are probably the highest-variance team in the league. It’s very easy to see them blowing teams away and finishing first. It’s also not too difficult to imagine an injury to Marta or Morgan causing the wheels to come off. Remember how much this team struggled at the start of 2017? That could easily happen again. They had a fine offseason, but probably didn’t do as much to improve as some of the other teams around them. In particular, they still have a shockingly weak midfield. They got away with it last year because Marta is Marta. But time marches on relentlessly, and even Marta will eventually start to fade. If that happens this year, it’s hard to see Orlando having enough bite in the midfield to make the playoffs.

Why I might be wrong: I’ve got them fifth, but only 10% worse odds to make the playoffs than the team in second, so it’s important not to overstate their weakness. It wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see Orlando win the league. If Marta and Morgan don’t lose a step, if Krieger continues to be a great defender, if the supplemental players continue to improve, this is a team that no one will want to play.

Tier Three: Lots of Holes, Lots of Potential

6. Washington Spirit (35%)

Why they’ll finish sixth: The Spirit are by far the most-improved team this offseason, having added most of the young USWNT core and a long-time starter for the Canadian team as well. Moreover, they should also improve simply by virtue of escaping from the injury hellhole that defined their 2017. That said, while this team projects to become terrifyingly good sometime very soon, they’re probably not quite there yet. Their attackers are as good as anyone in the league, but it’s still unclear how they’ll actually play together. With a roster this young, it wouldn’t be unexpected to see some growing pains.

But the real danger area is the defense. It’s possible that Rebecca Quinn will be a top-class center back, that Estelle Johnson will play out of her skin, that Meggie Dougherty-Howard will thrive at right back, that Caprice Dydasco will reach her full potential, and that Whitney Church will be primarily a depth option at center back. It’s also possible that Quinn struggles with the physicality of the league, Johnson struggles with her footwork, Dougherty-Howard can’t supply the pace and precision from outside, Dydasco never quite fulfills her promise, and Church is a regular starter. There’s a ton of variance in this team, but unless they can plug some of these gaps, they’ve probably got too many flaws to make the playoffs.

Why I might be wrong: The defense could be even worse than expected. Rose Lavelle might miss tons of time. Their rookie core might take a while to find their feet. There’s basically no chance they’ll be as bad as last year, but it might be asking too much for them to make major improvements now. On the other side, maybe the youth revolution starts firing on all cylinders. Maybe Lavelle is as dazzling as we all hope, Andi Sullivan is a rock in the midfield, and the ridiculous wealth of attackers are enough to overwhelm any defensive frailty. If this team plays to its full potential, they could win the Shield. I’m not saying that is likely to happen; I’m just saying it’s possible.

7. Utah Royals (30%)

Why they’ll finish seventh: Because there are six teams that look better than them. Honestly, that’s really it. There’s nothing wrong with this team, and any squad coached by Laura Harvey is hard to bet against. They just don’t look to have quite as much talent as the six teams I’ve got above them. A lot of that depends on whether they get peak, healthy performances from Becky Sauerbrunn and Amy Rodriguez. Those two performing at their 2015 levels would do a lot to push this team into the playoffs. Even then, there are still some places where this roster looks a little more functional more than it looks dominant.

Why I might be wrong: If Kelley O’Hara is a game-changer and ignites the Utah attack. If Harvey makes a vintage Harvey international signing in June to solidify the team. If Sauerbrunn is a rock in defense. If Rodriguez is a maestro in the attack. If players like Laddish, Kelly, Scott, and Matheson are given a chance to shine. If new acquisitions like Elise Thorsnes and Katrina Gorry acclimate quickly. None of those things would be particularly surprising, and if a few happen, this team starts to look a lot better.

8. Sky Blue FC (25%)

Why they’ll finish eighth: Because it will take most of the season to find the balance they’re looking for. This is a very young roster, and has undergone quite a lot of turnover. Like many teams in the league, they’re ridiculously overstuffed with attackers, but far too light on solid defenders. I do think that the personnel is flexible and talented enough to overcome the apparent liabilities; I just think it will take a while to get things sorted out. In the meantime, this looks like a maddeningly inconsistent team, who will play the first-place team off the pitch one week, only to fall on their face against a last-place team the next.

Why I might be wrong: I make it a point not to bet against Carli Lloyd. For all her flaws, she appears to be an exceptional lead-by-example player. If she is motivated and finds a vein of form, she could help turn the team’s transformation into overdrive. And while the team’s structure doesn’t make a ton of sense on paper, Sky Blue is chock full of massively underrated players. If they are able to find a formation that capitalizes on Lloyd, which lets the young legs do the running around her, and which compensates for the weakness they’ll inevitably suffer in the central midfield, this could be a genuinely great team.

Tier Four: Sigh…

9. Houston Dash (5%)

Why they’ll finish ninth: I already wrote several pieces on Houston, so I won’t belabor the point much here. They’ll finish last because their roster is (much) weaker than everyone else in the league, because their front office isn’t going to do anything to fix those problems, and because it’s exceptionally hard to stay motivated when you’re surrounded by institutional decay.

Why I might be wrong: The problems with the Dash are mostly upstairs. By all accounts, the players and coaches are giving it 100%, and there is a lot to be said for a strong team mentality. If everyone is pulling in the same direction, and if the organizational plans are well-defined, teams that look fairly weak on paper can turn in some impressive results. It would be genuinely shocking if Houston was good enough to make the playoffs, but a solid sixth place performance shouldn’t be seen as impossible.

Portland Thorns Preview: What Do You Get For a Team that Has Everything?

Posted on by RJ Allen

It’s easy to forget, but 2017 started out as a pretty difficult year for the Thorns. Tobin Heath was out almost all season after an all time year for club and country in 2016. It put a wrench in their attacking plans and they stumbled around a bit lost in the early part of the season but they ended up closing out the season with nine wins from ten and winning the championship. They learned how to defend as a unit, letting in the least goals over the course of the season of any team, and former bench players stepped up to make a name for themselves. Portland, historically a team of superstars, became a team of players with a point to make. 

Head Coach: Mark Parsons

2017 record: 14-5-5, 2nd in the league.

Projected Starting XI:
Caitlin Foord was meant to be the new attacking addition that would make Portland’s offense tick. No one, however, does exactly what Foord does, and since she is projected to be injured for most of the season, expect Portland to rely on pushing their fullbacks forward to generate offense, perhaps morphing permanently into the back three that was hinted at last season.

Goalkeeper: Adrianna Franch
Defense: Midge Purce, Katherine Reynolds, Emily Sonnett, Emily Menges, Meghan Klingenburg
Midfield: Lindsay Horan, Andressinha
Forwards: Hayley Raso, Christine Sinclair, Tobin Heath

Player you should know: Have you heard of Christine Sinclair, second all-time international goal scorer, most-capped Canadian international by a lot, and Portland legend? The veteran striker has been making adjustments to her game since she can’t just race past players at will anymore, dropping deeper and directing attacks, and she still looks like one of the best players on the field. Appreciate her ability and her vision before she calls time on an incredible career.

Under the radar: It’s almost a cliche to describe Emily Menges as underrated at this point, but until she gets a serious look in the national team, it will keep being true. The longest-serving member of an athletic and well-drilled backline that let in the fewest goals in the league last season, Menges is often tasked with cleaning up after players who get caught up the pitch. She’s rarely caught out of position, and when she is, she has the recovery speed and the tenacity to make decisive tackles anyway.

Biggest off-season acquisition: Andressinha. The Brazilian international midfielder acquired in a trade with Houston arrives as one of the top attacking players in the NWSL with excellent passing ability and a strong shot from outside the box. Where she will fit into a team that is flush with attacking midfielders is yet to be determined (she has played defensive midfield for Houston before), but once she gets on the same page as Heath and Sinclair, the Thorns might be able to play rings around their opponents.

Biggest rival: Traditionally Seattle, although in recent years games against North Carolina have been feisty enough to elevate the Courage to equal rivals in the eyes of many fans.

Most memorable moment from 2017: A 4-1 demolition of the Orlando Pride in the playoff semifinals at home, where the Thorns went up 2-0 in 20 minutes. They were creative in possession in the first half and ripped Orlando apart on the counterattack once their lead was solidified. It was one of their few complete performances in the league during a season largely defined by defending.

Why they’re the team to watch in 2018: They lost their European contingent in the off-season, but other than that, this is a team that has seen very little change for two seasons and won silverware in both. Despite those successes, however, this team still feels like it has a lot to prove. They won last year, but relied heavily on a strong defense, and provided little of the slick offense that the team wants to play. Can they be the first team to win the Shield and the Championship in the same year? Other teams at the top keep getting better, so it won’t be easy.

Predicted finish: 3rd. The Thorns will remain defensively strong and will retain their ability to shut down games, but the rest of the league is improving on offense and the Thorns, due to unfortunate circumstances, are standing still.

Success depends on: Will they stay healthy? Tobin Heath spent virtually all of last season injured and new acquisition Caitlin Foord—who was expected to be the lynchpin on the forward line—is going to spend most of this season injured. Last year the team went through a few games without being able to fill their bench, and this is a year with a heavier international schedule. Rotation players such as Celeste Boureille, Meg Morris, Midge Purce, and Mallory Weber will have to step up and play a big role.

Fun prediction: Look for Emily Sonnett to do some playmaking from the backline. It’s something she worked on when away at the W-League, and for a team without a clear starting defensive midfielder, she could well be in line to play as the league’s first libero. Fans of wildly attacking centerbacks, rejoice.