Alex Morgan has over 100 caps and 100 games for her national team. She has a World Cup title. She’s has an Olympic gold medal at home too. And an NWSL title. And a Champions League title.
She has done pretty well for herself is what I’m saying.
But when I think of Alex Morgan’s greatest moments I think of 2011 and 2012. I think of the player who busted her way on to the scene with a slightly unusual gate and the ability to lift the world on her shoulders. That player was exciting to watch, that player made everyone else look a little bit slower and a little bit less good than they were.
I think of Morgan when all she had to be was really good at playing soccer.
But time and injury changed who she is on the pitch. She is no longer the young player who can play without major expectations on her shoulders. She is not the player with an older, more famous, more experienced forward alongside her. She is that forward now and all the weight of the world now rests on her. Every move is broken down, slowed down, fast forwarded and watched over and over by millions of people.
Don’t get me wrong, expectations are fine as long as they are reasonable. But when they reach the level that no one would be able to meet them they became a stone around a player’s neck.
Morgan has the fate of the game on her shoulders in ways that seem impossible for anyone to come out from under. And oh my do heavy expectations seem to cling to Morgan. She has to be the role model that everyone can relate to and she has to be flawless in front of HD cameras and she has to score all the biggest goals and she has to lead equal pay lawsuits. We expect too much and come down too hard when those expectations aren’t met.
The crazy thing is just how much less we expect out of male athletes. Sure we expect the best forwards to score goals when their team needs them. We expect on the field things. But do we really expect Messi to look flawless on camera or to champion issues off of the field? No, we expect him to play soccer. He is afforded the luxury of just being able to have one job. Play soccer really, really well and make an obscene amount of money doing it.
I don’t think many people will argue with the fact that 2015 was not the best tournament Morgan has ever had. It’s not even the best World Cup tournament Morgan has ever had. She was coming off an injury and there were so many other story lines around that 2015 team. It was a team defined by Abby Wambach finally get her title and Lauren Holiday retiring and Carli Lloyd’s hat trick. It was a tournament that became catharsis for a team that hadn’t gotten it done in 16 years.
But 2019? Sure, there is the storyline of if the US can go back-to-back but largely people are putting those hopes on Morgan. Yes, players like Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath, Mal Pugh and Christen Press are going to get articles written about them and we will see footage of Ertz and Horan broken down to the point of madness. But Morgan is now the starting center forward on a team that are the favorites in the World Cup. Even if she wasn’t Alex Morgan that is going to come with pressure. Because she is, there is even more added on.
I hope Morgan plays well. I hope she scores a lot of goals. I hope she finds the form that we’ve seen flashes of her whole career. I hope most of all I don’t see 10 pieces written about how her legacy is forever diminished if she is merely good, merely solid, merely human after the final game is played.
Category: World Cup
Reports of Germany’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
They somehow seem to be flying a little under the radar, but Germany are very very good.
Germany had a rough 2017. There’s no pretending otherwise. Coming off an Olympic gold medal the previous summer, they were flying high. But 2017 was a descent into the depths. The biggest moment came in the quarterfinals of European Championship, when the Germans were knocked out by Denmark. Not only was this Germany’s earliest exit, it was the first time they had lost a knockout game in the competition since 1993. That game ended a run of six consecutive titles. But if that wasn’t enough, they then proceeded to lose to Iceland in the early stages of World Cup qualifying.
All of a sudden Germany, one of the titans of the game, were on the ropes. Steffi Jones, hired after the Olympic victory, was shown the door after less than 18 months on the job. The team seemed listless and uncertain. And while results did turn around under interim coach Horst Hrubesch, that early loss to Iceland left Germany still unsure of qualification all through 2018.
But they did qualify, and ultimately with relative ease. The three goals they conceded against Iceland in November 2017 turned out to be the only goals they allowed in the whole campaign, ending up with 38 goals scored to just 3 against. And with the arrival of Martina Voss-Tecklenburg, they also have a permanent coach. While it remains to be seen how she will structure the team over the long run, it increasingly seems like the lull during the Jones era was a blip rather than the new normal. So when considering the strength of this Germany team, it’s probably wiser to look at the underlying talent. And, well, there’s a lot of talent.
We’ve grown accustomed to pre-tournament hype for Dzsenifer Marozsán, but familiarity should not become the enemy of wonder. Marozsán really is phenomenal, and she’s arguably better right now than at any other point in her career. And it’s not just Marozsán. From top to bottom, the German midfield is absolutely lights out. Consider Sara Däbritz, one of the most technically gifted players in the world, who can pirouette around tackles, and drop inch-perfect balls behind the defense. Then add the always-reliable Melanie Leupolz to keep the keel steady, not to mention versatile players like Linda Dallmann and Lina Magull. Need experience to shore things up in a rough game? Bring in veteran Lena Goeßling. Need youthful energy? Giulia Gwinn is not yet 20, but already looks like a world class player.
This German midfield is outrageously good, and matches up favorably against any other team in the tournament.
The other lines aren’t quite as strong, but it’s not like there are slouches in any of these positions. At forward, Germany certainly doesn’t possess the sort of game-changing player who can put the team on her back. But given their diverse attacking talent, they don’t really need one. Instead, Alexandra Popp and Lea Schüller will generally serve as the central point around which the attack will orbit—dropping back to bring in the midfield, drawing defenders out of space so that fluid attacks may develop, and then stepping up to convert the chances that result.
They seem most likely to default to a single-striker formation, with Popp the likely starter. But Schüller is in such good form that they may shift things to allow them both to play. In their tune-up match against Chile, for example, Schüller played out wide, giving her a slightly different look at the attack.
To the extent that there is a genuine weakness in the squad, it’s in the defense. Like many top teams, they lack a truly world-class goalkeeper, with Almuth Schult having endured a tough year (including a serious case of the measles). The backline is also not necessarily set, having seen quite a bit of experimentation over the past year, including shifts between a back three and back four. Some consistent names have appeared: Sara Doorsoun, Verena Schweers, Kathrin Hendrich. But there has also been a lot of movement, with some of the midfield depth options occasionally being dropped back into defensive roles.
This is certainly a place where Germany’s relative lack of recent matches (they’ve only played four in 2019, compared to a team like the US who have played 10) may prove a hinderance. With more time, Voss-Tecklenburg might have had a chance to solidify her defensive structure. That said, there’s also a case for freshness. Things haven’t had a chance to grow stale yet, and positions haven’t calcified. That may give the coach more freedom to adapt to events and to the opposition.
Put it all together and you have a squad that is on par with supposed frontrunners like the US and France. There are weaknesses, certainly, and Germany probably do deserve to be considered a half-step behind the favorites. But only a half-step. This team is really good. So if you’re still thinking about them as the struggling side that stumbled into 2018, you’re well behind the times.
France at the World Cup: Could This Be The Year?
In less than a week, France will kickoff the 2019 Women’s World Cup as the host nation, playing their opening match against South Korea in Paris. The French National Team, or Les Bleues as they’re known, are one of the favorites to win the tournament. But what do we know about the French team and how much of a chance do they really have to walk away with the title?
France is currently No. 4 in the FIFA World Rankings. They have been one of the best squads in the world for a while, despite having never won a major title (unless you count the SheBelieves Cup). Their best finish at the World Cup was fourth place in 2011. But they will be motivated to prove themselves on home soil, especially after suffering a devastating defeat to Germany in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 tournament.
Since that last tournament, France has brought on a new head coach and lost some of their biggest stars to retirement. Corinne Diacre became France’s head coach in 2017. She led the national team as a defender and team captain during her playing career, making 121 appearances for France between 1993 and 2005. She also made history as the first woman to coach a men’s competitive match in France when she took charge of second-tier side Clermont in 2014.
Some of the big names that won’t be gracing the pitch for France this year include Louisa Necib, Camile Abilly, Elodie Thomis, Laure Boulleau, and Laura Georges. They have a combined total of close to 700 appearances for France, with Georges sitting at No. 2 all time (behind Sandrine Soubeyrand with 198 caps). Those are some big losses for France, but where there are players retiring, there are youngsters ready to fill their shoes.
The team’s biggest names all play for Olympique Lyon, who won their fourth consecutive Champions League title last month. At 6’2, Wendie Renard is a dominant force in the central defense. She has captained this team before but has recently passed those honors off to Amandine Henry. This season, she led a Lyon defense that allowed just 11 goals across all matches in the 2018-2019 campaign. She will be joined in the defense by her Lyon teammate Amel Majri, who is naturally a midfielder but has been playing at left back in recent years. Majri is a difference maker for the French squad and was sorely missed in their 2017 Euro’s tournament. If she can stay healthy, she will be a huge asset to this French side.
Amandine Henry, the current captain for France, is the best midfielder on the French team and one of the best midfielders in the world. She spent two years playing for the Portland Thorns in the NWSL before joining Lyon. While she plays as a defensive midfielder, she always plays a critical role in the attack as well. Gaetane Thiney made the World Cup roster, despite those who thought the 2015 tournament would be her last. She will be looking to redeem herself after missing an easy goal that would have taken France through to the semi-finals in 2015.
Eugenie Le Sommer has long been the leader of the attack for France. She has 74 goals in 159 caps with France and 163 goals in 175 appearances with Lyon. Despite her creativity, Le Sommer and the French attack have historically had problems finishing. Two players to keep an eye on for France are two of the younger strikers Head Coach Corinne Diacre has included in the roster: Delphine Cascarino and Valerie Gauvin. Gauvin has five goals in France’s last seven friendlies, while Cascarino scored a brace against Denmark.
One notable absence from the French roster is Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who has scored 53 goals in 57 appearances for PSG since she joined the squad in 2015. Katoto had an inconsistent year, putting on a poor performance for PSG in Champions League competition, but Diacre’s decision apparently stemmed from her belief that the 20-year-old striker lacks focus and wasn’t ready for the world’s biggest stage.
The key for France will be finishing their chances. Despite having some of the best attacking players in the world, France’s failure in big moments has always come from not finishing. The opportunity for France to win the title this year, a year after the men won their title, on home soil is indescribable. But France also tends to underperform, to cave to the pressure in big moments. Will they be able to overcome that tendency and become the first country to ever hold the men’s and women’s titles simultaneously? Only time will tell.
World Cup Power Rankings: Betting Odds Edition
There have been a lot of power rankings out there for the World Cup. I even wrote one myself back when the field was first established. And I encourage you to go check out the various cases from the experts. But there’s another time-honored way of assessing the odds: looking at what the bookies think. After all, when hard cash is on the table, there’s a serious incentive to get things right.
As we’ll see, that incentive does depend on significant trading. When small amounts are on the table, there isn’t enough incentive for the big traders to swoop in and correct the market, and mistakes will endure. So don’t take this as definitive—merely as one way among many others to assess the odds.
Implied odds of winning the World Cup
So here are the implied probabilities of winning the tournament, based on betting odds:
| France | 20 |
| USA | 20 |
| Germany | 13 |
| England | 11 |
| Netherlands | 5 |
| Japan | 5 |
| Brazil | 5 |
| Australia | 3 |
| Canada | 3 |
| Spain | 3 |
| Sweden | 3 |
| Norway | 2 |
| China | 1 |
| Italy | 1 |
| New Zealand | 1 |
| South Korea | 1 |
| Scotland | 1 |
| Argentina | 0 |
| Chile | 0 |
| South Africa | 0 |
| Jamaica | 0 |
| Nigeria | 0 |
| Cameroon | 0 |
| Thailand | 0 |
These numbers reflect a composite view from four different betting companies (bet365, skybet, William Hill, and betfair) listed at Oddschecker. Importantly, these are not the actual percentages at which you could make a bet. Instead, these are the implied probabilities once the odds are re-weighted on a 100% scale. For example, you’d only actually make $3.50 on a one dollar bet on the US, even though the odds suggest it would be $4, because the betting company has set their odds so that they’re only required to pay out one dollar for every 1.4 dollars coming in.
With that caveat in mind, we can still use these implied probabilities to make a rough assessment of what bettors think of the various teams. And for the most part, the answer is: they agree with the pundits. But there are a few exceptions.
Outside the top two, about which almost everyone seems to agree, many might put Australia and the Netherlands next, rather than Germany and England as reflected in the betting markets. And there are a few head scratchers–teams that seem to be getting credit for results in the distant rear-view mirror.
Crowdsourcing the odds
To dig into the differences a little more, I ran a series of twitter polls in early May, based on the betting odds at the time. The numbers have changed slightly since then, but not enough to make much of a difference. In the polls, I asked readers to decide whether they would buy or sell based on the implied probabilities. In most cases, things were within a fairly narrow band from 33%-66%–precisely what you’d expect if the odds were set well. But there were a few exceptions, which are worth digging into.
First, 67% preferred to buy the US at a 19% chance, while 68% wanted to buy France at those same odds. That suggests that the favorites might be slightly stronger than bettors currently think.
Lower down, a healthy 77% wanted to sell Japan at 5%. That seems reasonable to me. Japan were a regular participant in the finals of the big tournaments in the first half of the decade, which might bring them some cache. But those teams are long gone, and it would be quite surprising if this Japan repeated those performances. Similarly, 79% wanted to sell Norway at 2%. Now, a 2% chance is extremely small. It means that Norway would win once if they played this tournament fifty times. But based on the team Norway is bringing, that probably does feel optimistic.
But the biggest margin, by quite a ways, was the 90% who wanted no part of Brazil, even at 4% odds. Again, the legacy of Brazil might be influencing the betting line. Because this Brazil team isn’t even a shadow of their former greatness. I make it a habit to never bet against Marta, but I think you can make an exception here.
Conclusions: How do the markets help us?
As I noted above, these discrepancies don’t necessarily mean that there is easy money to be made here. After all, even if the odds are ‘wrong’ about Australia, and they actually have a 20% chance, that still means that 80% of the time you’ll lose your money. Plus, given the way the odds are stacked, the bookmakers are almost certain to rake in big profits regardless of what happens. You might beat the crowds, but you’ll rarely beat the house.
And yet, looking at the odds can help us think through the tournament in useful ways. For one thing, the sheer range of options is worth noting. There are definitely favorites, but even if you combine the chances of the US and France winning, it barely reaches 40%. That means it’s odds-on that someone who wasn’t a ‘favorite’ wins the tournament.
This is also a reason to be careful about drawing too many conclusions at the end of the tournament. The winner will deserve all the accolades they receive, but let’s not forget that there’s a great deal of randomness here. Victory is never foreordained. It takes real work, real skill, real performances on the field to take home the title. But it also takes some luck.
This also helps illustrate just how hard it is to put together a string of knockout victories against tough competition. The US Women’s National Team in 2019 is probably the best squad that this country has ever assembled. If not, it’s extremely close. Even so, in four of five worlds, they go home unsatisfied.
All of which is to say: it’s a very different world now than it was in the tournaments of the 1990s, or even the 2000s. The game has grown, talent has spread, and victory is much harder to come by. That significantly increases the likelihood of failure by the best teams. But it should also make victory taste that much sweeter for whichever team is lucky enough to make it to the top of the hill.
A Quick Overview of the Women’s World Cup Groups
The Women’s World Cup is just a few days away. To help you prepare I’ve put together a quick guide to the six different groups.
Just one note before we get started. When identifying players to watch, I did look to provide an NWSL spin if possible. And some teams, oh my was it hard to pick just one.
Let’s get going, shall we?
Group A
Teams:
France
Nigeria
Norway
South Korea
The Favorite: France. They’ve been consistently ranked top 3 in the world and the event is happening in their country.
The Underdog: Nigeria has featured in every Women’s World Cup there has been. While they may not beat France they still likely get out and could play spoiler down the road.
Players to watch:
Amandine Henry – France
Francisca Ordega – Nigeria
Emilie Haavi – Norway
Lim Seon-joo – South Korea
Key match of the Group: France vs Nigeria on June 17.
Group B
Teams:
China PR
Germany
South Africa
Spain
The Favorite: The two-time Women’s World Cup winning Germany have to be the favorites. They’ve got a solid team, as they always do, heading into the 2019 event.
The Underdog: Spain may have a much better chance of winning a few games than people give them credit for. They could find a groove and do themselves proud.
Players to watch:
Wang Shuang – China PR
Dzsenifer Marozsán – Germany
Linda Motlhalo – South Africa
Alexia Putellas – Spain
Key match of the Group: Germany vs Spain on June 12.
Group C
Teams:
Australia
Brazil
Italy
Jamaica
The Favorite: If Australia doesn’t win this group it will be shocking.
The Underdog: Jamaica has one of the best stories of in the whole tournament, and the potential to back it up with some good results. Good things might be in their future.
Players to watch:
Sam Kerr – Australia
Marta – Brazil
Sara Gama – Italy
Khadija “Bunny” Shaw – Jamaica
Key match of the Group: Brazil vs Jamaica on June 9. If Jamaica can get one or three points here, it will be huge.
Group D
Teams:
Argentina
England
Japan
Scotland
The Favorite: Some might say England and some might say Japan. I am going with England.
The Underdog: Scotland is at their first Women’s World Cup, but they’ve got plenty of World Cup level talent on their roster. It’s a tough group, but they have a good chance of getting out.
Players to watch:
Estefanía Banini – Argentina
Lucy Bronze – England
Rumi Utsugi – Japan
Kim Little – Scotland
Key match of the Group: England vs Scotland on June 9. Can Scotland get a point or three and turn the group on its head?
Group E
Teams:
Cameroon
Canada
Netherlands
New Zealand
The Favorite: This is Canada’s group to lose.
The Underdog: The Netherlands aren’t a total underdog, but they don’t have the sort of historical success as Canada.
Players to watch:
Estelle Johnson – Cameroon
Christine Sinclair – Canada
Lieke Martens – Netherlands
Ali Riley – New Zealand
Key match of the Group: The Canada vs Netherlands match on June 20 decides who takes the group.
Group F
Teams:
Chile
Sweden
Thailand
United States
The Favorite: If the United States doesn’t win this group it will be one of the biggest shocks in the opening rounds.
The Underdog: Sweden did beat the United States in the 2016 Olympics though.
Players to watch:
Christiane Endler – Chile
Hedvig Lindahl – Sweden
Duangnapa Sritala – Thailand
Julie Ertz – United States
Key match of the Group: The United States is going to have a pretty easy opening two matches. But the Sweden match could be a defining moment.
A Beginners Guide to the Women’s World Cup
The World Cup is the biggest event in global soccer, and it brings in a lot of fans who don’t necessarily spend a lot of time or energy thinking about the game in between the big events. But it can sometimes feel a little overwhelming trying to catch up on months or years of information that have passed by since the last time you checked in.
If you fall into that category, this is the guide for you. It will give you a quick rundown on the tournament, and provide a few helpful tidbits to let you join in on the conversation.
Where is it happening?
The tournament is in France this year, with games spread across eight venues. The opening match will kick off in Paris, which will also host several more group stage games and a couple knockout matches. Other cities like Nice, Reims, Valenciennes, and Le Havre will host matches in the group stages and first two knockout rounds. At that point, all eyes will turn to Lyon, which will host the semifinal and finals in the last week of the tournament.
Because the tournament is in France, the games will mostly take place in the late morning and early afternoon for most US viewers–which is a pretty good time to watch soccer!
How can I watch it?
Soccer is more fun in big groups, so find your favorite local watering hole and ask them to put it on. If that fails, you can also watch at home, with every game being broadcast on Fox, FS1, or FS2, and will also be available in Spanish on Telemundo and Universo. And on the principle that soccer is more fun in groups, if there’s no local establishment you’d like to visit, you could always put together a watch party at home.
For those cord-cutters out there, everything is also available through streaming services like fuboTV.
Who are the favorites to win the tournament?
- The United States are defending champions, and have a strong chance to win again this time. There’s been some turnover since 2015, but most of the core of the old team is still around, supplemented with some important new contributors. This squad is deep and very strong.
- Co-favorites are France. It would be a first-time title for the team, almost exactly two decades after their male counterparts accomplished the same thing on home soil in 1998. This French team is as good as they’ve ever had.
- Germany are two-time winners (2003 and 2007), and the defending Olympic champions. They haven’t had a great last couple years, but things seem to be falling into line at the right time. They will be strong contenders.
- Australia are the newest of new kids on the block. They have a core of young players who have grown together over the past decade, and with Sam Kerr, they’ve got arguably the best player in the world leading their line.
- Honorable mentions: England continue to develop and could pose a real threat. The Netherlands are the defending European champions and have an impressive attacking array. This is likely Christine Sinclair’s final World Cup, and Canada will do everything they can to boost her to the final. And it’s never wise to count Japan out, even if they don’t look as strong these days.
Some key storylines to follow
- Broken record. Christine Sinclair has scored 181 goals in her illustrious career, leaving her just three behind Abby Wambach’s record of 184. It would be a fitting capstone on the career of an all-time great to break the record in her final World Cup.
- A deadly quarterfinal. If the United States and France both win their groups, they will be on a collision course for a quarterfinal showdown between the two tournament favorites. It would take place on June 28 in Paris, in front of 50,000 fans.
- The Sam Kerr wrecking tour. There are several players with a case for being the best in the world right now, but in my opinion Sam Kerr is the first among equals. She’s led both the NWSL (United States) and W-League (Australia) in scoring in both of the past two seasons. If her form continues, this could be a performance for the ages.
Five group stage games that are worth watching
If you can only catch a few games, here are some that will be most likely to give you some serious bang for your buck:
- France vs. South Korea. June 7. The opening match of the tournament, held at the Parc des Princes in Paris. The atmosphere should be raucous, as Les Bleus look to start things off with a bang.
- England vs. Scotland. June 9. The oldest rivalry in soccer gets another new chapter in the book. England will be the favorites, but don’t sleep on this Scotland team. You’ll want to pay particular attention to Kim Little—one of the world’s best players finally given a chance to shine on the biggest stage with her country.
- Germany vs. Spain. June 12. Germany are one of the best teams in the world, and Spain are a rising power. Whoever wins this group will gain a relatively easy slot in the elimination bracket. Whoever finishes second will probably have to play the United States.
- Netherlands vs. Canada. June 20. Two excellent teams that will likely be playing to see who gets to top the group. Canada are a defensive stalwart, while the Dutch have one of the most exciting attacks in world soccer. Which will come out on top?
- Sweden vs. United States. June 20. Two classic rivals facing off in the final slot of the group stages. They’ll not only be fighting to top the group, but there will also be an element of revenge, after Sweden bounced the US out of the Olympics in 2016.
Who should I support?
Support whoever you like, and don’t mind anyone who says otherwise! There are exciting stories with every single team in the tournament, and plenty to root for in every case. But if you still aren’t sure, here’s a short guide to provide some assistance:
- If your favorite teams are the New York Yankees, Golden State Warriors, New England Patriots, and Real Madrid, then you should support the United States.
- If you want to jump on a bandwagon, you should support Australia.
- If you want to jump on a slightly hipper bandwagon, you should support Spain.
- If you’re so hip that you only want to support a team if everyone else is jumping off the bandwagon, you should support Brazil.
- If you want to support a team making their first appearance in the tournament (and you should!), you should support one of Chile, Jamaica, Scotland, or South Africa. My personal tip is Jamaica, but they’re all great.
- If you want to see your team play beautiful soccer, you should support Japan.
- If you want to support an African team with a chance to make a deep run, you should support Nigeria.
- If you want to boisterously sing a great national anthem after a victory, you should support France.
But, again, there aren’t any wrong answers here. All the teams are well-deserving of some love.
Who should I follow to stay up to date?
I will be covering the tournament from France, and you’re certainly welcome to follow along with me at @olneyce. But assuming you want a wider range, there are some excellent lists of recommended follows provided by our friends Jacob Cristobal, Sophie Lawson, RJ Allen, and Kim McCauley.
I’m enjoying the World Cup so much, and I’m sad it will be over soon
You’re in luck! Almost everyone participating in the World Cup also plays in their domestic leagues. If you want to see more Sam Kerr, Crystal Dunn, and Christine Sinclair, you can tune into the National Women’s Soccer League – with games going on right through the World Cup and continuing on immediately after. And many other leagues around the world will start back up at the end of summer. There’s a world of great women’s soccer out there, just waiting for your attention!
Will Tobin Heath Really Play Outside Back In France?
Will Jill Ellis play Tobin Heath as an outside back in France?
For a while on Sunday afternoon, as the USWNT took on Mexico, that’s exactly where she was. Though it was more standing there than playing there. And as I watched, the thought rolled through my mind: is this really going to happen?
This isn’t the only question around this team. With the US on their way to France, there still are plenty of lingering issues. Part of that is because the team hasn’t played a truly competitive match since March. So we’ve seen plenty of games, but none that really told us key things. So we’re still left wondering who will be on the pitch, who won’t, and what that means for the fate of the team.
And thinking about Heath as a potential fullback gets me thinking more broadly about the dichotomy between true depth and the illusion of depth.
If you want to see true depth, look to the midfield. Sam Mewis, Morgan Brian, Julie Ertz, Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle and Allie Long provide as deep a pool in the middle of the park as a coach could want. While Horan is the presumed starter, Mewis is a unique talent that is able to step in and work with just about any pairing Ellis might ask of her. Ertz can play just about anywhere with expert skill. And seeing Lavelle in person with the ball is a sight to behold. The way she reads the game and manages to get defenders befuddled as she moves forward on the pitch is a thing of beauty.
Sure there are questions on if Brian is healthy enough or if Allie Long will be able to use her particular skill set at an effective level for the national team. But most of the questions around the midfield are due to an overabundance of talent.
Contrast this with the outside back position. You have Kelley O’Hara and Crystal Dunn as the starters. But in the post game mixed zone Dunn called herself an “attacking minded player” nearly a dozen times while answering questions from the assembled media. She’s willing to do the job, but is hardly a true defender. So if you start with Dunn, and want to make a change (reasonable on a day when it was so hot you could fry an egg on the pavement outside Red Bull Arena), it makes a certain kind of sense to swap in Tobin Heath. But the logic here is an extremely twisted kind.
I didn’t know in the year 2019 I needed to say this, but Tobin Heath is not an outside back. And watching her in person only confirmed that. In the first half she was comfortable and energetic. All that faded once she was moved to the left back spot. She didn’t look like she was particularly interested in defending–taking any chance to go forward–but those movements were aimless and uncomfortable. And why wouldn’t they be? Ellis suggested in her post game remarks that the difference between left back and left forward in this rotation wasn’t all that great. But there’s actually a big difference. You can’t just swap players interchangeably and expect it to work. The responsibilities are different, the angles are different, the way you get involved in play is different.
So why did Ellis try it? Does it maybe tell us just how little she actually wants to rely on Ali Krieger – who made the roster but still faces real worries about how she’ll perform if called upon? Or is it just some practice for a desperation move in a game where they’ve used all their subs? It’s hard to say.
Ultimately, only time will tell if this effort to force wingers in as outside backs will burn the Americans. If they win the 2019 Women’s World Cup it may be just a forgotten bit of commentary in 20 years.
Book Review: The Making of the Women’s World Cup
In The Making of the Women’s World Cup: Defining Stories from a Sport’s Coming of Age, Kieran Theivam and Jeff Kassouf take us on a journey across seven tournaments, spanning almost three decades, and deliver well on the promise of the title. These are indeed some of the defining stories of the event, which collectively come together to construct a broader picture of the women’s game as a whole.
Each chapter focuses on a specific country, and generally centers on the specific tournament that defines that group. That means that each of the winners gets a chapter, but also allows for a few other interesting stories that don’t necessarily result in lifting the trophy at the end. For example, we get to follow the Australian teenagers as they work their way into a team on the margins of the event, and see them build up toward becoming one of the rising superpowers in the game. There is a similar chapter that focuses on England’s transition from a fringe player to a serious contender.
This decision to tell narrower and more specific stories is very helpful, since it reduces the size and scope of the event, and allows emotion and experience to shine through. As Theivam and Kassouf present things, you get a clear sense of how the tournament progressed through the eyes of those actually participating. That doesn’t necessarily tell us everything we might want to know about the event, but it provides focus and clarity that might get lost in an effort to be more comprehensive. The story of how Silvia Neid or Kelly Smith or Julie Foudy reacted in a particular moment is bolstered if you’ve had a chance to dig into their story in some detail.
This combines with the other nice feature of the book: its ability to balance between straightforward reporting on the action (who scored the goals, who made the saves, how the individual games ebbed and flowed) and broader discussion of the social and cultural experience. The ability to draw on extensive interviews of the subjects themselves helps enormously here. You don’t just get a sense of what happened but also what it meant, and how people felt.
I do have two minor areas where I was left wanting a little more. The first is in the editing. This definitely reads like a book that needed to come out quickly to hit a deadline. It’s by no means a huge problem. The writing is fine; it just could have been tightened up a bit with another round of edits.
The second is more thematic. For completely understandable reasons, this is primarily a book about the big western countries (the US gets four chapters, England two, with just one for Brazil, Germany, Australia, and Japan, and none for any other nation). To be fair, those are generally the countries who have played the biggest role in the tournament, and you couldn’t reasonably tell ‘the defining stories of a sport’s coming of age’ without them. The US, after all, has won three World Cups and has come agonizingly close to another. It’s also the biggest media market and a two-time host of the event. And if you wanted to pick the single moment where the sport ‘came of age,’ the two most compelling answers might be the final matches of 1999 and 2015.
Still, there are plenty of important stories that don’t come from these few nations. It would be wonderful to dig into the experience of the great Chinese team of the 90s, the Norwegian winners from 1995, not to mention countries like Costa Rica, Nigeria, Colombia, etc. The World Cup, after all, isn’t purely an event for the winners. It takes an entire field of competition to produce the final result, and there are fascinating stories all along the way—many from players who had to sacrifice far more to bring themselves to this place.
This isn’t a critique of the book, which understandably had to make choices about where to devote its attention, and presumably was dependent on what kinds of interviews were available to fill in the gaps. It’s more just a recognition that there are still a lot of interesting stories still to be told in this area. All of which might be fertile ground for a follow-up, if the authors were so inclined.
Ultimately, this isn’t an encyclopedic study of every twist and turn, though it does offer a nice bit of that as well. But if you’re excited for this summer’s tournament, and want to get some perspective on what it all means, you won’t find a better resource than this book.
Which USWNT Players Are Going to France?
In some ways the 2019 USWNT roster is the easiest USWNT in years to predict.
The forwards are pretty much set, the midfielders are too, defenders are all here and accounted for and unless Adrianna Franch somehow hurts herself again the goalkeeper corps have assembled.
On the other hand trying to figure out how Jill Ellis rates two players that are both unlikely to see the pitch much (if at all) is an exercise in frustration.
But the show must go on and rosters don’t form themselves on a blank page.
The Goalkeepers
I hate to give spoilers this early but Alyssa Naeher, Ashlyn Harris and Adrianna Franch are the goalkeepers for the 2019 Women’s World Cup for the USWNT.
The three net minders have been one of the more constant positions under Jill Ellis in the last year. So unless one of them takes a knock, Jane Campbell will be left behind.
What’s more, we probably know who is going to play every minute, barring emergency. If history follows the same pattern we usually see from the US in major events, Harris and Franch will be called upon only if Naeher somehow loses the ability to use both of her legs. Just one might not be enough to cause a goalkeeper switch for the US.
All in all this is maybe the most stable and easy to call group on the roster.
The Defenders
Most of the defenders are pretty easy to pick out. Keyword there is most.
Unless they somehow take a knock that sends them into the middle of next week Abby Dahlkemper, Becky Sauerbrunn, Crystal Dunn, Kelley O’Hara, and Tierna Davidson are locks.
But five defenders does not a defensive core make.
Likely two out of the trio of Casey Short, Emily Sonnett, and Ali Krieger make the final roster. Krieger is the surprise here, having been put back on the radar in the last round of USWNT friendlies.
My money is on Sonnett and Short. But Krieger’s mix of experience and Short’s apparent lack of favor from Ellis might shift that scale enough for her to slip just out of the final 23.
The Midfielders
Allie Long and McCall Zerboni are going to France. If you had suggested that to me in 2017, I would have belly laughed over it. But Ellis has seemly chosen them as the back up players for when she needs to put out something other than her best XI, or if she needs to make a late sub.
The easy picks here–Julie Ertz, Lindsey Horan, Sam Mewis, Rose Lavelle–make the roster in a walk. The four of them have been playing at varying levels of great for a while now.
There was a time when Andi Sullivan and Morgan Brian were easy picks here too but it seems that time has passed. Danielle Colaprico too seems to be on the outside looking in this round.
The Forwards
Alex Morgan, Christen Press, Megan Rapinoe, Tobin Heath and Mallory Pugh are France-bound in all circumstances less the catastrophic. Regardless of your feelings on her, Carli Lloyd looks to be included there as well.
My wild card here is Jessica McDonald.
McDonald is a throw back to the style of forward that is just bigger, stronger and able to be where you don’t want her to be when she needs to be. She doesn’t have the raw speed of a Press or a Morgan or the flair of a Heath or a Rapinoe but in a tough game she could be a difference maker.
Who goes to France and who doesn’t is more or less set. Ellis has shown us in the last year who she puts out against the top teams in the world and who sits in the stands.
The 23 below are a solid team. Time will tell if they are Jill Ellis’ idea of one.
| Name | POS | Caps | Goals | Club Team |
| Adrianna Franch | GK | 1 | 0 | Portland Thorns |
| Alyssa Naeher | GK | 43 | 0 | Chicago Red Stars |
| Ashlyn Harris | GK | 21 | 0 | Orlando Pride |
| Abby Dahlkemper | DF | 37 | 0 | North Carolina Courage |
| Becky Sauerbrunn | DF | 155 | 0 | Utah Royals |
| Casey Short | DF | 27 | 0 | Chicago Red Stars |
| Crystal Dunn | DF | 83 | 24 | North Carolina Courage |
| Emily Sonnett | DF | 31 | 0 | Portland Thorns |
| Kelley O’Hara | DF | 115 | 2 | Utah Royals |
| Tierna Davidson | DF | 19 | 1 | Chicago Red Stars |
| Allie Long | MF | 42 | 6 | Reign FC |
| Julie Ertz | MF | 79 | 18 | Chicago Red Stars |
| Lindsey Horan | MF | 66 | 8 | Portland Thorns |
| McCall Zerboni | MF | 9 | 0 | North Carolina Courage |
| Rose Lavelle | MF | 24 | 6 | Washington Spirit |
| Sam Mewis | MF | 47 | 9 | North Carolina Courage |
| Alex Morgan | FW | 160 | 101 | Orlando Pride |
| Carli Lloyd | FW | 271 | 107 | Sky Blue FC |
| Christen Press | FW | 113 | 47 | Utah Royals |
| Jessica McDonald | FW | 7 | 2 | North Carolina Courage |
| Mallory Pugh | FW | 50 | 15 | Washington Spirit |
| Megan Rapinoe | FW | 150 | 44 | Reign FC |
| Tobin Heath | FW | 147 | 28 | Portland Thorns |
World Cup Power Rankings: Evaluating the Draw
Last week I divided the World Cup competitors into five tiers. Now that we have the full draw, it’s worth taking a look to see how everyone is situated. Did anyone’s road get easier? Harder? Is there a ‘group of death’?
For the most part, the answer to all the questions is ‘no.’ Given a strict seeding system, the pots were pretty evenly balanced. That said, some of the groups do look a bit more interesting, and maybe a bit tougher, than others. So let’s dig in.
Group A: France (tier 1), Norway (tier 3), South Korea (tier 3), Nigeria (tier 4)
This is probably the toughest group from top to bottom. Nigeria was one of the strongest teams in Pot 4, and the same is true of South Korea in Pot 3. Which means all four teams have a legitimate chance of advancing. That said, the overall strength of the group is probably good for France, who is a clear step ahead of the other three. If everyone plays to their level, I’d expect Norway, South Korea, and Nigeria to take points from one another, letting France escape fairly easily with a first place finish. That said, this is one of the groups with the highest variance in possible outcomes. If France does slip up in their opening match against South Korea, there’s a high possibility for chaos to ensue.
Group B: Germany (2), China (3), Spain (3), South Africa (4)
If Group A isn’t the strongest overall, it’s probably this one. Plus, Germany isn’t playing at France’s level right now–and won’t have the home field advantage–which makes the top spot far more open. I’d still expect Germany to have more than enough to handle the others, but it wouldn’t be especially surprising to see either China or Spain sneak into the top position. Then factor in that South Africa is no one’s idea of a pushover, and you have maybe an incredibly fascinating group. I like this Spain team a lot, and was considering adopting them as my dark horse team to follow. This group creates the highest range of possible outcomes they were likely to encounter. They could win the group or finish in last place, without a massive difference in performance.
Group C: Australia (1), Brazil (3), Italy (3), Jamaica (5)
The first group with a clear team at the bottom. Jamaica are probably the weakest team in the tournament, and the draw didn’t do them any huge favors. Italy and Brazil are vulnerable, but it would be a major shock if they dropped points against the Reggae Girlz. Meanwhile, although Australia will want to avoid getting overconfident, they should be able to manage first here without too much trouble, particularly since they play Jamaica last and will know precisely how many goals they’ll need to score to win the goal difference tiebreaker, should they find themselves in a position where that matters. Which means Italy v. Brazil on June 18 could be one of the key matchups in the group stage.
Group D: England (1), Japan (3), Scotland (4), Argentina (5)
This is probably my favorite group. Strictly going by tiers, it looks pretty straightforward. But Japan, Scotland, and Argentina are all among the strongest teams in their tier. If Japan plays like they did over the last 18 months, England should have no trouble with them, and the big question will be whether Scotland can overtake them. But it doesn’t pay to underestimate Japan in big tournaments, and I have a sneaking suspicion that their commitment to youth is going to pay off next summer with a team that looks closer to the dangerous Japan teams over the earlier part of the decade. Then consider the excitement of England v. Scotland, and you’ve got an opportunity for some serious fireworks.
One other thing worth noting: the winner of this group gets placed in probably the best spot in the bracket–facing a third place team in the round of 16 and then a relatively weak runner-up (probably Brazil or Norway) in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, whoever finishes second will get thrown into a Round of 16 showdown with either Canada or the Netherlands, and would then probably have to play Australia in the quarterfinals. Ouch.
England and Japan play in the final match on June 19, which will probably determine who goes where. That’s definitely one worth marking down on your calendar.
Group E: Canada (2), Netherlands (2), New Zealand (4), Cameroon (5)
This is just about the best possible outcome for the Dutch, who were (pretty easily) the strongest team in Pot 2. They’ll face off against the weakest team from Pot 1, in the only group where there’s nothing close to a clear favorite to win the group. I’d bet on the Netherlands, but not by much. Meanwhile, New Zealand is good enough to play with the top two, but more realistically will have to hope to keep those games tight enough that a big win over Cameroon is enough to see them through.
Group F: USA (1), Sweden (3), Chile (4), Thailand (5)
Yawn. theoretically possible for the US to fail to advance from this group, but it would be the single most shocking result in the history of women’s soccer. In fact, it would be deeply surprising if they did anything other than win the group at a canter. Even if Sweden pulls another miracle out of their hat, their chances of beating the US are pretty low, and the Americans will probably score a dozen or so goals in the other two matches, putting their goal difference out of reach. Basically, the US almost literally couldn’t have been handed an easier group. That said, if they stroll into a quarterfinal match against France having barely been tested, they might end up wishing for a bit more pressure in the early stages.
In my initial framework, I identified 15 teams in the top three tiers. These are the ones that I believe should expect to advance to the knockout round, all things being equal. Now that we have the groups, though, it looks like the teams in Groups A, B, and C might have drawn a slightly shorter stick. They’ll each be competing with other similarly-situated squads for the two guaranteed slots. If they can’t manage that, they’ll have to cast their luck with the third-place chances. But precisely because they’re in tougher groups, they’re more likely to drop points compared to teams in the other groups that face some slightly easier competition.
Meanwhile, Group F looks like the place least likely to produce a third place advancer. Whoever finishes third in that group will probably have a battering from the US dragging down their goal difference, meaning they’ll almost certainly need four points if they want to get through. Which means they’ll need a draw against Sweden–possible, but unlikely.
All of that said, it’s still a long way from June, 2019. Some of these teams may show enough over that time to significantly affect our assessment of their chances. And, of course, soccer is a funny old game so you never want to bet too heavily on things going to form.
What are your thoughts? Who got the easiest draw? The toughest? Which matches are you most anticipating?
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