Backline Chat: The World Cup Is Here!

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Hello, and welcome to our pre-World Cup Backline chat. Given time zones, this is probably the last of these I’ll be able to do for a while, but I’m excited to get some conversation in before the big event kicks off.

But, before we jump into the international talk, let’s cover the NWSL, since that gives us some actual results to work with. So, to open things up: everyone who had the Washington Spirit in first place at the World Cup break, raise your hand.

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): No one saw this coming. At all.

Charles Olney: I will admit that I have missed both of their recent victories, so I’m not in a good position to comment, but it sure seems like it hasn’t been a fluke. They really are playing very well.

Creating a lot of discomfort for those of us who are still angry about the lack of response to the abuse allegations from the offseason, which RJ discussed very compellingly in a recent piece.

RJ Allen: The league has to do something when it comes to Burke or that will become the media narrative around this team. Honestly part of the reason they haven’t is they are so under staffed. Which is just horrible.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): Yeah. But I agree that any success they have will be overshadowed by this until the NWSL and the Washington Spirit take some substantial action.

Charles Olney: I would love to be able to focus on the players, who deserve a lot of credit. And I’d love to be able to have a normal conversation about what Burke has brought as a coach (whatever it is, it seems to be working), but it’s hard to dig into either with all that floating over.

RJ Allen: It’s very ‘other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?’

Charles Olney: That said, does anyone have any insight into how they’ve turned things around? Is this just them waking up from a dream and forgetting all about 2018, and this is where they ‘should’ always have been given all the young talent they stockpiled?

RJ Allen: I think having so many young, hungry players who are willing to seemingly run through walls for each other really helps. They remind me a bit of the old Western New York Flash team in 2016.

Charles Olney: It certainly seems to help that Andi Sullivan is finally back playing really well. But there’s also a cohesion to the whole team that goes beyond any one player. I’ll absolutely be curious to see if they can sustain it. The WNY comparison is a great one. That team was also maybe a year ahead of schedule, but they didn’t care about timelines.

RJ Allen: Ashley Hatch looks really solid this year as well. And her having a big year is key.

Allison Cary: Yeah, Hatch has been a standout. And of course having Bledsoe in goal is a big help too.

Charles Olney: Elsewhere in the league, I feel like I’m getting some whiplash. Chicago looked like they were going to dominate the break, now they’re in crisis. Utah was flying high and now is stumbling badly. Houston and Seattle keep throwing away points…or maybe finding points. North Carolina look mortal. Is this just what we should expect for the whole break?

Allison Cary: It’s all chaos. Welcome to the NWSL.

RJ Allen: You know who are good soccer players? Christen Press and Sam Kerr. You know are away from their club teams right now? Christen Press and Sam Kerr. Oversimplification, yes. But when you pull so many starters out it is just brutal.

Allison Cary: But then isn’t it brutal for their opponents too?

RJ Allen: Some teams have lost bigger pieces and some teams have stepped up. We see it every World Cup and Olympic year. Some teams have deeper benches.

Charles Olney: At the moment, Portland feels like the exception. On paper, Chicago looked far stronger this weekend, but Portland just blew them away in the opening half hour and then held on nicely for the win. Was that just finally being back home in a great atmosphere? Are they set for a reversion to the mean, too? Or do they have something special?

RJ Allen: I think playing in Portland after such a long time not being able to was a huge boost, yes. But Purce and Charley were really fantastic that match.

Charles Olney: My gut says that with lower overall quality, there is just more room for wacky results and we shouldn’t read too much into anything. But maybe one team (Portland perhaps) just reels off five or six wins and opens up a huge lead.

RJ Allen: Right now chaos reigns.

Charles Olney: It certainly has been exciting seeing some of these marginal players get a chance and REALLY take advantage of it.

RJ Allen: Bethany Balcer, Rookie of the Year.

Allison Cary: Amen.

Charles Olney: DiBiasi, though! And Sam Staab!

Allison Cary: Yeah, DiBiasi was also a standout to me.

RJ Allen: They will be nominated, for sure.

Charles Olney: After a very down year for rookies in 2018, it’s been great seeing new faces doing so well this year.

Alright, what about the other side of the table. We’ve got seven teams within six points of each other at the top, and then two teams that have COMBINED for three points through fifteen games. Is there any hope at all?

Allison Cary: Nope.

RJ Allen: Nope.

Charles Olney: We’re missing Luis, our resident Orlando optimist, but I’m pretty sure he would say…”nope”

Allison Cary: Orlando hasn’t shown any signs of life. Sky Blue has had better flashes, but…

RJ Allen: I don’t know what you do with Orlando. They were bad ever when they had their full team.

Allison Cary: Yeah. I think there’s some deeper stuff going on there.

Charles Olney: One conclusion that could be drawn is that Tom Sermanni actually did a lot to hold them together as much as he did. Alternatively, he let things get so out of hand that they were unfixable even after they got someone new?

RJ Allen: I understand that you have to give Marc Skinner time but the team is just not playing well under him. Orlando once bet the farm on Morgan and there is a very real chance she nopes out when LAFC comes in and they will have nothing.

Charles Olney: But it’s weird how quickly Orlando went from having a solid roster that people insisted on calling a top-tier roster to having a mediocre roster that people think is pure garbage. Because, it’s not great, but it’s also not THAT bad.

RJ Allen: The roster is playing THAT bad though. The players themselves are mostly NWSL level.

Charles Olney: But they really did over-leverage themselves based on Morgan and Marta, and that’s really coming back to bite them now. There’s no denying that.

Allison Cary: There are a decent amount of international and national team players on that team. But no one was performing even before everyone left for the WC.

RJ Allen: And they aren’t getting butts in seats either. Which is why I think they did it partly in the first place.

Charles Olney: In conclusion: I hope they turn it around somehow. but ‘turn it around’ is relative. I just want them and Sky Blue to start pulling closer to the pack.

Charles Olney: Okay, let’s turn our attention to the World Cup, which is starting this week.  It’s a huge event, obviously, and there’s a million pieces to unpack. But what are your top level thoughts about the tournament as a whole?

RJ Allen: I really hope it’s fun. The women’s game just needs a really fun world event where some wild shit happens and a lot of great goals are scored.

Allison Cary: Agreed.

Charles Olney: I think that this tournament has a chance to be a genuine turning point in a way that we’ve never quite seen. But I’m not going to demand that it be a revolution in order to call it a success. As you say, it will definitely be fun, and that will be enough even if that’s ‘all’ we get.

Allison Cary: It definitely feels special. It feels like the tournament we’re gonna look back on and say “that was it.”

RJ Allen: It feels like it may be 1999 but for more than just the US.

Allison Cary: That would be magical. I want all the new teams to do as well as possible, especially teams like Jamaica and Chile and Argentina. It will mean so much to even be able to go back with goals, even more if they can get a win or two.

Charles Olney: I got a chance to talk with Kieran Thievam for the podcast this week, and that’s the comparison he made. 1999 was a big deal here, but not really anywhere else. But this could be that tournament for five or six teams.

RJ Allen: I think having it in France helps. It’s close together with other countries who can reasonably just decide to show up. I understand not always having it in Europe but logistically it is really nice.

Charles Olney: Definitely. I was looking at the Dutch group schedule, for example, and they’ve got two games in the northeast of France. That’s just a 3-4 hour train ride from the Netherlands. I bet there is a LOT of orange in the crowd for those. And there’s potential there for a lot of teams. The English traveling contingent is going to be big. And if this is a breakthrough tournament for, say, Italy and Spain, there’s a LOT of folks nearby who might decide on a whim to make a trip.

RJ Allen: I love the idea of the Aussies hosting it in 2023 but it would be a travel struggle moving place to place and just getting there. Being able to just decide to go to a game the day of, tickets not withstanding, is amazing.

Charles Olney: One slightly negative thing is that there doesn’t seem to have been much marketing in France itself, which means there will probably be a major difference between games. Some with 50,000, others with 5000. That feels like a missed opportunity.

RJ Allen: It does. You would think they would want the money that having games with 50,000 people bring in if nothing else. But hey sexism is real.

Charles Olney: Alright, dialing in a little bit on the games themselves, who are we pulling for, outside of the obvious?

RJ Allen: I would like Scotland to win some games and get to the knocks outs. Please and thank you.

Charles Olney: I’m definitely on Team Jamaica, and if RJ doesn’t mind the company, I’ll join her on the Scotland bandwagon

Allison Cary: Yep, those were the two teams I was gonna mention.

RJ Allen: I would like Sarah Bouhaddi to do well and have a good World Cup.

Allison Cary: Please.

RJ Allen: I am invested in her journey.

Allison Cary: Me too, not necessarily by choice.

RJ Allen: I do not know why I enjoy her so much. She is everything that I dislike usually about goalkeepers but we stan who we stan. And yes, Charles, please join me on the Scotland bandwagon.

Allison Cary: I, too, am on the Scotland bandwagon. My sister goes to school there. That’s my connection.

Charles Olney: I’m also really excited to see Thailand. They’re maybe the most isolated of all the teams, with virtually no one that plays outside of Thailand. And they had a pretty easy road to get here. So they might get blown away. But the few times I’ve seen them, they’re one of those teams that manages to frustrate the opposition without completely backing into a shell. I really hope they find a result or two.

RJ Allen: If Scotland beats England I may have to move to Scotland like Allison is going to move to France if they win.

Allison Cary: Europe here we come!

RJ Allen: I am really excited to see Canada too. I want them to have one more least real shot at a title for Sinclair.

Allison Cary: I would love to see Thailand do well. I think it could mean a lot not just to them, but to that region.

Charles Olney: Some of the other bigger teams that I’d really like to see do well: France – because it would be incredible for the home nation to finally overcome their problems with the big games, Spain – because they’re ready to join the ranks of the very top nations in the world, and Australia – because Sam Kerr.

I mean, I love a lot of things about Australia, and would be thrilled to see them do well in any case. But after watching Marta spend a career as the best in the world with no trophies to show for it, I don’t want Kerr to go through the same.

Same logic applies for Canada and Sinclair.

RJ Allen: France vs Australia would be a fun match. Not for Allison, but still.

Allison Cary: I’m really hoping this is France’s year. But… I’ve cheered for teams that choke my whole life and it’s a hard thing to break out of.  I’m starting to believe they could really win this thing and that’s just setting me up for complete and utter disappointment.

Charles Olney: One thing I’ve noticed is that most of the teams I’m pulling for are very likely to face the US: Thailand, Spain, and France. So I guess that sets me up for happiness no matter what happens?

Allison Cary: That’s soccer.

Charles Olney: Yep. The reality is that ALL these teams are interesting and fun, and there really aren’t any bad choices. But let’s try to quantify that: which team would you LEAST like to see win?

Allison Cary: Norway winning would be… complicated. But there are a lot of players I like on that team, so it might be worth it.

Charles Olney: That was my answer, too.

Charles Olney: They’ve also already won one, even if it was quite a while ago, in a very different game. But yeah, I’d be hard-pressed to be sad about that group of players winning it.

RJ Allen: Germany. I am petty.

Charles Olney: I am absolutely here for RJ’s pettiness re: Germany. But I would love to see them win. That team is wonderful.

Allison Cary: I have mixed feelings about England. I shouldn’t, it will be massive for that country if they do well. But the way they handled Mark Sampson and the Eni Aluko thing— and I mean the players, not the FA— rubbed me the wrong way.

RJ Allen: The problem is you can say that about almost any federation. Every federation, the smaller ones more than most, have huge issues. So I try not to count that against the players/coach if it’s changed.

Allison Cary: Well, but like I said I’m not talking about the FA side. I’m talking about individual comments from players.

RJ Allen: But I don’t deny I get why you feel like that.

Charles Olney: Okay, so it’s foolish to make predictions, but we’re all fools, so let’s make some predictions. I think we’re all on record already with some of these, but we can knock them out quickly.

First: who wins the tournament?

RJ Allen: France

Allison Cary: Do I say France? I don’t know what to say.

Charles Olney: You have to pick! It’s France for me, too.

Allison Cary: Damn it. I guess I’m committing. This definitely means they’ll choke.

RJ Allen: Or as Kim McCauley said, whoever wins the US vs France game.

Allison Cary: That’s a fair prediction.

Charles Olney: Okay, #2: golden ball and golden boot winner. I think Miedema wins the golden boot, and Henry wins the golden ball.

Allison Cary: Miedema for boot.

RJ Allen: Sam Kerr for Golden Boot, Amandine Henry for Golden Ball.

Allison Cary: I’ll go with Henry for Golden Ball.

Charles Olney: We all think very similarly, it turns out. We need more conflict here! Let’s try this one: who is the most surprising team in the semifinals.

RJ Allen: Canada.

Allison Cary: England.

Charles Olney: I’ll go Canada as well. But if it’s someone really wacky, I’ll take whoever finishes second in Group A (I’d bet on Norway, but SK or Nigeria could do it).

Charles Olney: Next: how many minutes do Morgan Brian, Ali Krieger, Ashlynn Harris, and Adi Franch play combined?

RJ Allen: I could see Brain or Krieger get time in the first two games so 47.

Allison Cary: I’m gonna go a bit higher and say 60. Taking risks.

Charles Olney: I think there’s a real chance that it’s zero, but just for the sake of differentiation, I’ll take the over on those. Maybe 90.

RJ Allen: Does Julie Ertz play more than 30 minutes at centerback by the end of the US’s time in the World Cup?

Allison Cary: Follow up— does Tobin play right back?

Charles Olney: Oh, that’s a good one. I think yes, and not for any particularly obvious reason, either. I think no on Heath at right back, unless it’s for like two minutes while they’re warming up a sub.

RJ Allen: I think at some point we see Tobin Heath slotted back. If she “plays” or not is another question.

RJ Allen: I think Ellis will want Mews in without taking anyone out. So Ertz will drop back sometimes.

Allison Cary: Yeah, that’s a good reason. I was kind of with Charles on the “yes but for no real reason.”

RJ Allen: Does Christen Press play in more than 3 games?

Charles Olney: Yes. I think she probably goes unused in one group stage game but plays in most or all of the rest.

Allison Cary: No.

Charles Olney: Leading goal-scorer for the US?

RJ Allen: Tobin Heath. I think she is doing things with the ball right now that are cheat mode.

Charles Olney: Morgan is the obvious answer, and probably is right, but given how weird these things can sometimes go, it genuinely could be someone really wild like Lloyd or something.

Allison Cary: Morgan. I’m gonna stick with predictable.

RJ Allen: In 2015 it was “we need a bitch, get Kelley”, who is the bitch in 2019?

Allison Cary: I definitely don’t know how to answer that question.

Charles Olney: I feel like that’s not the vibe of this team. For better and for worse.

RJ Allen: I think those are answers unto themselves.

Charles Olney: But they still have Kelley!

RJ Allen: They do. And she played like herself in New Jersey against Mexico. I think she and Becky Sauerbrunn are huge for the US. If they both don’t play 8/10 each game we’re in trouble.

Charles Olney: RJ and I already discussed this one on the podcast, but can rehash here: which US player(s) get suspended for yellow card accumulation?

RJ Allen: The Great Horan.

Allison Cary: Horan

RJ Allen: Or someone really funny like Rose Lavelle.

Charles Olney: If I remember correctly, we also mentioned Ertz and Heath as real possibilities.

RJ Allen: Heath called herself a psycho when she plays in a piece written by Richard Farley. And on the pitch, she is 100% right. She could get a few cards.

Allison Cary: I see Ertz as a solid possibility.

RJ Allen: I almost want it to be Becky Sauerbrunn but I also 100% do not want it to be Becky Sauerbrunn.

Allison Cary: I’m good with her getting suspended when the US plays France. Or her being suspended for that game, rather.

RJ Allen: Allison, I have a question for you. Would you rather see France win or Becky Sauerbrunn score a game winning goal?

Allison Cary: France win. They’re my TEAM. But I love Broon like all normal people do.

RJ Allen: All sane ones at least.

Charles Olney: Any final thoughts?

RJ Allen: Please @ Soccer Gods no ACL injuries, ok?

Allison Cary: One quick note: everyone should read the article by Shireen Ahmed in Time about the women who won’t be playing at the World Cup. It’s a must read.

Charles Olney: That is a great call. So, with that, let’s wrap up for the week. I hope everyone is excited for the World Cup, and will join along with all the coverage we’ll be providing over the course of the tournament. I’ll be posting something (almost) daily, and there should be plenty more coming from back home as well. It’s going to be a grand ride, and there will certainly be a lot to talk about along the way.

And don’t forget that the NWSL will be back on June 15 after a one-week break, so there will be plenty there to cover as well!

Women’s World Cup Daily – June 6

Posted on by RJ Allen

June 6: Matchday 0

Greetings from France. As I write this, I’m sitting in a coffeehouse in the 9th arrondissement of Paris, waiting for the action to start. It’s absolutely thrilling to be here.

I’ve followed this sport for a little over two decades, but really only as a casual fan for most of that time. I checked in for the big tournaments, maybe caught a friendly here or there, vaguely checked in on the WPS or NWSL, and that was it. But I decided in 2015 that I wanted to really invest. And that decision has led me here. It’s frankly kind of unbelievable. I consider myself incredibly lucky to be able to make this crazy trip, to attend all these matches, to bathe in the atmosphere, and to continue to learn more about this game.

That last part is critical. Because, while I’ve learned a huge amount over the past four years, it’s a truism that the more you know, the more you begin to understand just how little you actually know. I’ve been humbled at the depth and breadth of coverage out there about this tournament, and the incredible knowledge that some people are bringing to the table. And I’m so excited to get to play some small role in that process. 

I’ll be publishing plenty of traditional stories: match reports, tactical breakdowns, opinion columns – all the usual stuff. But I also wanted to provide something a little more informal, and more regular. That’s what this column will be. My plan is to write something here (just about) every day of the tournament. That will generally be match commentaries, and other assorted thoughts about the progress of the tournament. But it will also include some personal notes. The travel, the atmosphere, conversations with fans, and so forth.

One thing I’m interested in: how the tournament is marketed. After just a couple hours in Paris, so far it looks like the answer is: not very much. This is what I’ve seen so far.

Just to give you a sense of my travel plans, I’m going to be based in Paris for the group stage, though I’ll be making quite a few trains around northern France to catch games. I’ll be at all the US matches, and will also take some trips to places like Valenciennes for Australia v. Italy and Le Havre for Spain v. South Africa. Once the knockout rounds start, I’ll have to miss a few days as I travel to a political science conference in Newcastle, but I’ll be back in time for the quarterfinals, including that fated potential showdown between France and the US. Then I’ll be heading to Lyon for the final stages of the tournament.

And all along the way, I’ll be posting updates here at Backline. I hope you’ll join me. And if you’re going to be out here in France, feel free to drop me a line (@olneyce). After all, part of the fun of these events is meeting new friends.

What I’m Reading: Women’s World Cup Edition

Posted on by RJ Allen

There has been a lot of great content happening around the lead up to the Women’s World Cup kicking off on Friday.

I wanted to take the time to highlight some of the things I’ve been reading and finding the most engaging as we prepare for the 2019 event.

Reports of Germany’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated and A Beginners Guide to the Women’s World Cup by Charles Olney

Charles is one one of the people I always look forward to seeing what he comes up with. His preview is a great guide to the World Cup and makes things a bit easier to wrap your head around. And well, Germany is not out of this by a long shot.

France at the World Cup: Could This Be The Year? by

No one loves France like Allison loves France. And after reading this piece you may also love France.

This Is the Most Anticipated Women’s World Cup Ever. But Corruption and Abuse Still Block Women From Soccer by Shireen Ahmed. 

It is heartbreaking and maddening o read this piece but it is a piece that should be required reading for all.

SBNation Women’s World Cup Top Fifty Players by SBNation Staff.

This is a very well done piece and a very nice piece to look at. Find these players in games and watch. They are amazing.

The one thing every World Cup contender needs to win it all by Kim McCauley

Kim is one of the best there is and this is a great piece on what each team needs to go the distance.

We Put Too Many Expectations on Alex Morgan by RJ Allen

What? If I won’t promote my work, who will?

Tierna Davidson remains unbothered by Steph Yang

Tierna Davidson is pretty rad and Steph Yang is great at writing about rad people.

 

Is Spain a Dark Horse or Overrated?

Posted on by RJ Allen

Something strange happened this spring. A team that most casual fans probably hadn’t given two thoughts were suddenly everyone’s favorite ‘dark horse’ for the World Cup. And it’s not hard to understand why. Spain has long been a sleeping giant of women’s soccer, full of potential that has never quite been realized. But in the past year, things have started to change. Barcelona advanced to the final of the Champions League, while Atlético Madrid took home their third straight league title, and drew 60,000 fans to a game in the process.

Meanwhile, the national team started to string together some genuinely impressive performances—often outplaying highly-regarded opponents like the US, Netherlands, and England—though not necessarily emerging with victories in the process.

And that’s the key thing. If Spain are really going to live up to their ‘dark horse’ moniker, they’ll need to start translating classy performances into concrete results. There’s no denying the talent on this team. The question is whether they’ll be able to make good on the potential this time around, or whether it will take another cycle for potential to become reality.

Spain is no stranger to this phenomenon. Their men’s side spent decades as a favorite of pundits who kept declaring them just about ready to take a step forward and join the inner circle. Eventually, it happened. The question is whether the women are on the cusp of a similar transition, or are merely at the beginning of a long and frustrating road.

Spain’s strengths are real…but so are their weaknesses

Spain’s strengths are obvious: technical ability, tactical awareness, smooth possession. The midfield duo of Vicky Losada and Alexia Putellas is among the very best at the tournament, and are fresh off working together to take their club team, Barcelona, to the Champions League final. Much has been made of Spain’s decision to part ways with Vero Boquete—their all-time leading scorer, and still an excellent player as made apparent by her recent performances with Utah Royals in the NWSL. But with Losada and Putellas, Spain is spoiled for options in central midfield.

Their principal target will be Jenni Hermoso, a top-level striker who has ben pouring in goals for Atletico. Hermoso is far more than a goal-poacher, and likes to play supplier herself, but Spain will probably do best if she sticks to a pure striker role, since they lack any other obvious goal-scoring threats. Their other best hope in an attacking role is Patricia Guijarro, a rising star in the game, but also someone just coming off injury, and who has not yet proved she is ready at the highest levels.

The result is a team with a lot of nice attacking options, but which won’t necessarily translate those into goals as often as they’d like. When everything is clicking, Spain move the ball with lightning speed through a series of one-touch passes, and it all looks as pretty as any nation in the world. The problem is: it doesn’t always click. And when it doesn’t, they lack the cutting edge to manufacture goals through more direct means. The result is a team that will inspire people with their beautiful play, but whose success may ultimately depend more on how effectively their defense can stifle the game.

And this is the dirty little secret of the case for Spain: even with all the beautiful passing, their greatest strength as a team is probably their defensive solidity. The key player here is Mapi León, a rising star in the global game, who was a huge part of Barcelona’s successful season. She is a superb defender, as well as an important link to the attack from her wide left position. They’ll also depend on players like Marta Torrejon, Irene Paredes, and Andrea Pereira to lock down the defense. But even with solid internationals across the back and in goal, Spain is ultimately not quite strong enough to hold off the very top teams on the ability of their defenders alone.  

That means that they’ll need to blend their strengths together—using possession primarily as a technique to deny the opposition the ball, and thereby deny them chances. The great danger is that they’ll allow themselves to be drawn forward, trying to dance the ball into the net, and leave themselves exposed.

How will Spain fare?

Spain have gone from underrated to overrated quickly enough to give you whiplash. No sooner had the ‘dark horse’ narrative begun to percolate than knowledgeable observers jumped in to push back, highlighting all the reasons to doubt their potential. All of which is fair. But at this point, the backlash might have exceeded the original claim, putting Spain right back into the underrated category.

Whether the metaphysics of their rating interest you, there’s no denying that Spain will be an exciting team to watch. Ultimately, 2019 is likely to end up being a bit too early for them. With a friendlier draw, they might well have advanced quite far, but they have very little margin for error now. If they can’t overcome Germany—one of the top teams in the world—the very best they probably can hope for is a Round of 16 draw against the United States, England, or Australia. That’s a lot to ask, and probably more than this team will be able to manage.

But don’t count them out just yet. There’s enough potential in this squad that if everything comes together, they could go a very long way.

The Game Changers: Week Eight

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Game Changers is a weekly series looking at the most important results each week. Each section will look at one team and how its win, loss, or draw impacts the season.

It is the kickoff week for the 2019 Women’s World Cup, but back in the United States, there is still plenty of NWSL action. On Saturday, the Washington Spirit earned a 2-0 victory over the Utah Royals, solidifying them in the No. 1 spot with 16 points in seven games. The North Carolina Courage went back to their winning ways in Orlando, and the Portland Thorns played at the newly refurbished Providence Park for the first time in 2019. Here is a full breakdown of this week’s results:

Washington Spirit vs. Utah Royals (2-0)

Orlando Pride vs. North Carolina Courage (0-3)

Reign FC vs. Houston Dash (1-1)

Portland Thorns vs. Chicago Red Stars (3-0)

The Washington Spirit earn another win.

Perhaps I shouldn’t be so surprised at this point, since it seems to happen every week. But on Saturday, the Washington Spirit earned their fourth win in a row. Ashley Hatch scored the first goal, decimating the Utah Royals defense as she spun around them and placed her shot in the far corner. Hatch set up the second goal as well, when her shot bounced off the post and landed at the feet of Dorian Bailey. Hatch now leads the team with three goals on the year.

The Spirit have already earned more points this season than they did in all of 2018. Richie Burke seems to be working out as their head coach, although as RJ Allen pointed out in her article “We Need To Talk About Richie Burke,” that’s a complicated situation. They are playing teams who have lost many international players to the World Cup, but the Spirit have lost their fair share as well, including Mallory Pugh, Rose Lavelle, Chloe Lagarzo, and Chenya Matthews.  It’s time to admit that the Spirit look legit.

The Portland Thorns reopen Providence Park in style.

After two months worth of road games, the Portland Thorns finally returned to Providence Park on Sunday following the stadium’s expansion. They started the scoring in the first half, with a 27th minute goal from Margaret Purce. Simone Charley sent her pass through the defenders and to the feet of Purce, who beat the goalkeeper and tapped the ball into the net. That same combo scored again a few minutes later, when Charley sent a cross to Purce, who redirected the ball into the net. They went into halftime with a 2-0, and in the second half, Thorns added to their tally with a late goal from Marissa Everett.

The Thorns have been pretty consistent during this time on the road, but they haven’t wowed us. This weekend, the Thorns impressed in Portland. They are looking like a team to watch, even without Christine Sinclair or Tobin Heath.

Chicago Red Stars drop points on the road. 

The Chicago Red Stars lost their second game in a row this weekend. They’re still 3-3-2, and the Portland Thorns are not easy opponents, so I’m not saying it’s time to panic for the Red Stars. They accumulated 28 shots against the Thorns, but weren’t able to find the back of the net. While the goals from the Thorns showed a good bit of skill, sometimes Chicago defense clearly just wasn’t sharp enough. It’s true that they are missing many important players, but they will have to collect points during this period if they expect to be in the playoff picture at the end of the year. 

The Red Stars have conceded the same amount of goals that they have scored in 2019. They also only have one clean sheet. But their only losses have come from the top three teams in the league– Washington, Portland, and Utah. I think the Chicago Red Stars are good enough to make the playoffs, but they need to make sure they don’t drop points while they’re missing their World Cup stars. 

 

 

Ten Players to Watch at the Women’s World Cup

Posted on by RJ Allen

Kicking off in just a few days, the 2019 Women’s World Cup features the deepest and most impressive field that we have ever seen. There are too many great players to count. Hopefully, you’ve read some previews of the big names, especially this fantastic one from Kim McCauley and the team at SB Nation. Those lists are full of players who will be the defining factor for their team–players like Sam Kerr, Christine Sinclair, Dzsenifer Marozsán, Asisat Oshoala, and so on. 

But there are a whole lot of players that won’t necessarily show up at the top of those lists, but who will still be critical contributors. I want to identify some of those names: the players who probably are not the key contributor for their team, but who still deserve a fair share of attention. 

Ashley Lawrence (Canada)

Canada’s Swiss army knife can play virtually anywhere and make a real difference. She has most commonly been used as a fullback, a role which highlights her defensive abilities and exceptional workrate. But she can also play as a wingback or wide midfielder, with more license to drift inward and playmake. And at times she even slots as a pure central attacker. That sort of flexibility is critical to a Canada team that strives for maximal tactical flexibility, often switching formations in midstream. With Lawrence able to move so freely into what role is needed, she gives them maximal capacity to adapt to circumstances without having to make a substitution.

Jennifer Beattie (Scotland)

Beattie will work with Rachel Corsie to form one of the most dependable central defensive pairings in the whole tournament. In addition to her stalwart defensive capabilities, Beattie may be even more important for her ability to play as a ‘modern’ center back. Her skill on the ball will allow Scotland to play a more expansive and possession-oriented game, and could be the key to getting their excellent attackers the time and space they need to work their magic.

Fran Kirby (England)

Kirby is a mercurial player, who often seems to drift out of games, and can be frustrating for fans to watch. But she’s also one of the smartest readers of the game in world soccer—a purveyor of impossible through balls and clever slipped passes, who pops up when you’ve almost forgotten about her, turns on a dime and settles the ball into the far corner. Against teams who will give them some space to play, Kirby could be the key difference-maker for England.

Becky Sauerbrunn (USA)

Sauerbrunn is opposite of a flashy player, with her strongest defensive skill being simple positional awareness. She rarely goes in for a last-ditch tackle because she’s already waiting there when the attack arrives. Her mission is to close things down before they ever have a chance to develop. On a team overloaded with attacking players, her ability to hold the defense together will be essential if they hope to make a deep run. She won’t get one-tenth of the coverage that some other US players will receive, but there might be no single player who is more critical to the team’s success than Sauerbrunn.

Sara Däbritz (Germany)

Always a wonderful playmaker, Däbrtiz has increasingly added goal-scoring to her arsenal, and has also developed into a far more physically resilient player. She’s got one of the best left foots in the game, and is coming off the best season of her career at Bayern Munich. She’s also just completed a transfer to Paris Saint-Germain for the upcoming season, which suggests a player ready to challenge herself at another level. Dzsenifer Marozsán deservedly gets all the headlines, but in Däbritz Germany have a second world-class midfielder, one who often flies unjustifiably under the radar for international audiences. But that may be about to change.

Alexia Putellas (Spain)

Putellas is one of those players who sees angles that no one else can find, weaving passes through gaps the size of a postage stamp. If Spain live up to their ‘dark horse’ potential in this tournament, Jenni Hermoso will likely be the one scoring the goals that help them get there. But Putellas will be the one further back, orchestrating the symphony that helps it all come together.

Konya Plummer (Jamaica)

The biggest story on this Jamaica team is Khadija Shaw. And for good reason. She’s a generational talent, and has every chance to become one of the great strikers in the game. But don’t sleep on Konya Plummer. Jamaica’s captain at the ripe old age of 21, Plummer is an excellent defender—a good ball-winner and a sturdy presence in the air—and will play a huge role in organizing the Jamaica defense. For a team that will likely spend much of the tournament without the ball, that may be the single most important role.      

Lina Hurtig (Sweden)

It’s not even certain that she’ll be able to play significant minutes, since she has struggled constantly with injuries. But if healthy, Hurtig might be the difference-maker. Sweden have long needed a creative wide player who can stretch the opposition and develop more sophisticated attacks. That’s Hurtig. If they get the best from her, they will likely also get much more from their strikers, helping provide the goals that might otherwise be in short supply.

Delphine Cascarino (France)

With less than a dozen caps, Cascarino is a relative newcomer to the French team, but she has already made a huge impression. The Lyon striker is coming off a breakout season with the best club team in the world, and has been able to parlay that into significant time with her country as well. Attacking from the wing, she brings pace and technical ability, as well as a clinical ability to put away chances. France is spoiled for options in the attack, but it certainly seems like Corinne Diacre will call on Cascarino quite a bit.

Yui Hasegawa (Japan)

Japan won the 2011 tournament and reached the final in 2015, but they’ve spent the past few years undertaking a significant overhaul. The youth revolution has left Japan looking far weaker that you’d expect from a World Cup finalist, but it has also breathed new life into the team. At just 22, Hasegawa has no experience with the great Japan teams of previous tournaments, but will also not weighed down by those expectations. Like most Japanese players, she is skillful on the ball. But unlike many of her compatriots, she also has a sharp cutting edge, and may provide some of the directness that Japan sometimes lacks.

We Put Too Many Expectations on Alex Morgan

Posted on by RJ Allen

Alex Morgan has over 100 caps and 100 games for her national team. She has a World Cup title. She’s has an Olympic gold medal at home too. And an NWSL title. And a Champions League title.

She has done pretty well for herself is what I’m saying.

But when I think of Alex Morgan’s greatest moments I think of 2011 and 2012. I think of the player who busted her way on to the scene with a slightly unusual gate and the ability to lift the world on her shoulders. That player was exciting to watch, that player made everyone else look a little bit slower and a little bit less good than they were.

I think of Morgan when all she had to be was really good at playing soccer.

But time and injury changed who she is on the pitch. She is no longer the young player who can play without major expectations on her shoulders. She is not the player with an older, more famous, more experienced forward alongside her. She is that forward now and all the weight of the world now rests on her. Every move is broken down, slowed down, fast forwarded and watched over and over by millions of people.

Don’t get me wrong, expectations are fine as long as they are reasonable. But when they reach the level that no one would be able to meet them they became a stone around a player’s neck.

Morgan has the fate of the game on her shoulders in ways that seem impossible for anyone to come out from under. And oh my do heavy expectations seem to cling to Morgan. She has to be the role model that everyone can relate to and she has to be flawless in front of HD cameras and she has to score all the biggest goals and she has to lead equal pay lawsuits. We expect too much and come down too hard when those expectations aren’t met.

The crazy thing is just how much less we expect out of male athletes. Sure we expect the best forwards to score goals when their team needs them. We expect on the field things. But do we really expect Messi to look flawless on camera or to champion issues off of the field? No, we expect him to play soccer. He is afforded the luxury of just being able to have one job. Play soccer really, really well and make an obscene amount of money doing it.

I don’t think many people will argue with the fact that 2015 was not the best tournament Morgan has ever had. It’s not even the best World Cup tournament Morgan has ever had. She was coming off an injury and there were so many other story lines around that 2015 team. It was a team defined by Abby Wambach finally get her title and Lauren Holiday retiring and Carli Lloyd’s hat trick. It was a tournament that became catharsis for a team that hadn’t gotten it done in 16 years.

But 2019? Sure, there is the storyline of if the US can go back-to-back but largely people are putting those hopes on Morgan. Yes, players like Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath, Mal Pugh and Christen Press are going to get articles written about them and we will see footage of Ertz and Horan broken down to the point of madness. But Morgan is now the starting center forward on a team that are the favorites in the World Cup. Even if she wasn’t Alex Morgan that is going to come with pressure. Because she is, there is even more added on.

I hope Morgan plays well. I hope she scores a lot of goals. I hope she finds the form that we’ve seen flashes of her whole career. I hope most of all I don’t see 10 pieces written about how her legacy is forever diminished if she is merely good, merely solid, merely human after the final game is played.

Reports of Germany’s Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Posted on by RJ Allen

They somehow seem to be flying a little under the radar, but Germany are very very good.

Germany had a rough 2017. There’s no pretending otherwise. Coming off an Olympic gold medal the previous summer, they were flying high. But 2017 was a descent into the depths. The biggest moment came in the quarterfinals of European Championship, when the Germans were knocked out by Denmark. Not only was this Germany’s earliest exit, it was the first time they had lost a knockout game in the competition since 1993. That game ended a run of six consecutive titles. But if that wasn’t enough, they then proceeded to lose to Iceland in the early stages of World Cup qualifying.

All of a sudden Germany, one of the titans of the game, were on the ropes. Steffi Jones, hired after the Olympic victory, was shown the door after less than 18 months on the job. The team seemed listless and uncertain. And while results did turn around under interim coach Horst Hrubesch, that early loss to Iceland left Germany still unsure of qualification all through 2018.

But they did qualify, and ultimately with relative ease. The three goals they conceded against Iceland in November 2017 turned out to be the only goals they allowed in the whole campaign, ending up with 38 goals scored to just 3 against. And with the arrival of Martina Voss-Tecklenburg, they also have a permanent coach. While it remains to be seen how she will structure the team over the long run, it increasingly seems like the lull during the Jones era was a blip rather than the new normal. So when considering the strength of this Germany team, it’s probably wiser to look at the underlying talent. And, well, there’s a lot of talent.

We’ve grown accustomed to pre-tournament hype for Dzsenifer Marozsán, but familiarity should not become the enemy of wonder. Marozsán really is phenomenal, and she’s arguably better right now than at any other point in her career. And it’s not just Marozsán. From top to bottom, the German midfield is absolutely lights out. Consider Sara Däbritz, one of the most technically gifted players in the world, who can pirouette around tackles, and drop inch-perfect balls behind the defense. Then add the always-reliable Melanie Leupolz to keep the keel steady, not to mention versatile players like Linda Dallmann and Lina Magull. Need experience to shore things up in a rough game? Bring in veteran Lena Goeßling. Need youthful energy? Giulia Gwinn is not yet 20, but already looks like a world class player.

This German midfield is outrageously good, and matches up favorably against any other team in the tournament.

The other lines aren’t quite as strong, but it’s not like there are slouches in any of these positions. At forward, Germany certainly doesn’t possess the sort of game-changing player who can put the team on her back. But given their diverse attacking talent, they don’t really need one. Instead, Alexandra Popp and Lea Schüller will generally serve as the central point around which the attack will orbit—dropping back to bring in the midfield, drawing defenders out of space so that fluid attacks may develop, and then stepping up to convert the chances that result.

They seem most likely to default to a single-striker formation, with Popp the likely starter. But Schüller is in such good form that they may shift things to allow them both to play. In their tune-up match against Chile, for example, Schüller played out wide, giving her a slightly different look at the attack.

To the extent that there is a genuine weakness in the squad, it’s in the defense. Like many top teams, they lack a truly world-class goalkeeper, with Almuth Schult having endured a tough year (including a serious case of the measles). The backline is also not necessarily set, having seen quite a bit of experimentation over the past year, including shifts between a back three and back four. Some consistent names have appeared: Sara Doorsoun, Verena Schweers, Kathrin Hendrich. But there has also been a lot of movement, with some of the midfield depth options occasionally being dropped back into defensive roles.

This is certainly a place where Germany’s relative lack of recent matches (they’ve only played four in 2019, compared to a team like the US who have played 10) may prove a hinderance. With more time, Voss-Tecklenburg might have had a chance to solidify her defensive structure. That said, there’s also a case for freshness. Things haven’t had a chance to grow stale yet, and positions haven’t calcified. That may give the coach more freedom to adapt to events and to the opposition.

Put it all together and you have a squad that is on par with supposed frontrunners like the US and France. There are weaknesses, certainly, and Germany probably do deserve to be considered a half-step behind the favorites. But only a half-step. This team is really good. So if you’re still thinking about them as the struggling side that stumbled into 2018, you’re well behind the times.

France at the World Cup: Could This Be The Year?

Posted on by RJ Allen

In less than a week, France will kickoff the 2019 Women’s World Cup as the host nation, playing their opening match against South Korea in Paris. The French National Team, or Les Bleues as they’re known, are one of the favorites to win the tournament. But what do we know about the French team and how much of a chance do they really have to walk away with the title?

France is currently No. 4 in the FIFA World Rankings. They have been one of the best squads in the world for a while, despite having never won a major title (unless you count the SheBelieves Cup). Their best finish at the World Cup was fourth place in 2011. But they will be motivated to prove themselves on home soil, especially after suffering a devastating defeat to Germany in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 tournament.

Since that last tournament, France has brought on a new head coach and lost some of their biggest stars to retirement. Corinne Diacre became France’s head coach in 2017. She led the national team as a defender and team captain during her playing career, making 121 appearances for France between 1993 and 2005. She also made history as the first woman to coach a men’s competitive match in France when she took charge of second-tier side Clermont in 2014.

Some of the big names that won’t be gracing the pitch for France this year include Louisa Necib, Camile Abilly, Elodie Thomis, Laure Boulleau, and Laura Georges. They have a combined total of close to 700 appearances for France, with Georges sitting at No. 2 all time (behind Sandrine Soubeyrand with 198 caps). Those are some big losses for France, but where there are players retiring, there are youngsters ready to fill their shoes.

The team’s biggest names all play for Olympique Lyon, who won their fourth consecutive Champions League title last month. At 6’2, Wendie Renard is a dominant force in the central defense. She has captained this team before but has recently passed those honors off to Amandine Henry. This season, she led a Lyon defense that allowed just 11 goals across all matches in the 2018-2019 campaign. She will be joined in the defense by her Lyon teammate Amel Majri, who is naturally a midfielder but has been playing at left back in recent years. Majri is a difference maker for the French squad and was sorely missed in their 2017 Euro’s tournament. If she can stay healthy, she will be a huge asset to this French side.

Amandine Henry, the current captain for France, is the best midfielder on the French team and one of the best midfielders in the world. She spent two years playing for the Portland Thorns in the NWSL before joining Lyon. While she plays as a defensive midfielder, she always plays a critical role in the attack as well. Gaetane Thiney made the World Cup roster, despite those who thought the 2015 tournament would be her last. She will be looking to redeem herself after missing an easy goal that would have taken France through to the semi-finals in 2015.

Eugenie Le Sommer has long been the leader of the attack for France. She has 74 goals in 159 caps with France and 163 goals in 175 appearances with Lyon. Despite her creativity, Le Sommer and the French attack have historically had problems finishing. Two players to keep an eye on for France are two of the younger strikers Head Coach Corinne Diacre has included in the roster: Delphine Cascarino and Valerie Gauvin. Gauvin has five goals in France’s last seven friendlies, while Cascarino scored a brace against Denmark.

One notable absence from the French roster is Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who has scored 53 goals in 57 appearances for PSG since she joined the squad in 2015. Katoto had an inconsistent year, putting on a poor performance for PSG in Champions League competition, but Diacre’s decision apparently stemmed from her belief that the 20-year-old striker lacks focus and wasn’t ready for the world’s biggest stage.

The key for France will be finishing their chances. Despite having some of the best attacking players in the world, France’s failure in big moments has always come from not finishing. The opportunity for France to win the title this year, a year after the men won their title, on home soil is indescribable. But France also tends to underperform, to cave to the pressure in big moments. Will they be able to overcome that tendency and become the first country to ever hold the men’s and women’s titles simultaneously? Only time will tell.

World Cup Power Rankings: Betting Odds Edition

Posted on by RJ Allen

There have been a lot of power rankings out there for the World Cup. I even wrote one myself back when the field was first established. And I encourage you to go check out the various cases from the experts. But there’s another time-honored way of assessing the odds: looking at what the bookies think.  After all, when hard cash is on the table, there’s a serious incentive to get things right.

As we’ll see, that incentive does depend on significant trading. When small amounts are on the table, there isn’t enough incentive for the big traders to swoop in and correct the market, and mistakes will endure. So don’t take this as definitive—merely as one way among many others to assess the odds.

Implied odds of winning the World Cup

So here are the implied probabilities of winning the tournament, based on betting odds:

France 20
USA 20
Germany 13
England 11
Netherlands 5
Japan 5
Brazil 5
Australia 3
Canada 3
Spain 3
Sweden 3
Norway 2
China 1
Italy 1
New Zealand 1
South Korea 1
Scotland 1
Argentina 0
Chile 0
South Africa 0
Jamaica 0
Nigeria 0
Cameroon 0
Thailand 0

These numbers reflect a composite view from four different betting companies (bet365, skybet, William Hill, and betfair) listed at Oddschecker. Importantly, these are not the actual percentages at which you could make a bet. Instead, these are the implied probabilities once the odds are re-weighted on a 100% scale. For example, you’d only actually make $3.50 on a one dollar bet on the US, even though the odds suggest it would be $4, because the betting company has set their odds so that they’re only required to pay out one dollar for every 1.4 dollars coming in.

With that caveat in mind, we can still use these implied probabilities to make a rough assessment of what bettors think of the various teams. And for the most part, the answer is: they agree with the pundits. But there are a few exceptions.

Outside the top two, about which almost everyone seems to agree, many might put Australia and the Netherlands next, rather than Germany and England as reflected in the betting markets. And there are a few head scratchers–teams that seem to be getting credit for results in the distant rear-view mirror.

Crowdsourcing the odds

To dig into the differences a little more, I ran a series of twitter polls in early May, based on the betting odds at the time. The numbers have changed slightly since then, but not enough to make much of a difference. In the polls, I asked readers to decide whether they would buy or sell based on the implied probabilities. In most cases, things were within a fairly narrow band from 33%-66%–precisely what you’d expect if the odds were set well. But there were a few exceptions, which are worth digging into.

First, 67% preferred to buy the US at a 19% chance, while 68% wanted to buy France at those same odds. That suggests that the favorites might be slightly stronger than bettors currently think. 

Lower down, a healthy 77% wanted to sell Japan at 5%. That seems reasonable to me. Japan were a regular participant in the finals of the big tournaments in the first half of the decade, which might bring them some cache. But those teams are long gone, and it would be quite surprising if this Japan repeated those performances. Similarly, 79% wanted to sell Norway at 2%. Now, a 2% chance is extremely small. It means that Norway would win once if they played this tournament fifty times. But based on the team Norway is bringing, that probably does feel optimistic.

But the biggest margin, by quite a ways, was the 90% who wanted no part of Brazil, even at 4% odds. Again, the legacy of Brazil might be influencing the betting line. Because this Brazil team isn’t even a shadow of their former greatness. I make it a habit to never bet against Marta, but I think you can make an exception here.

Conclusions: How do the markets help us?

As I noted above, these discrepancies don’t necessarily mean that there is easy money to be made here. After all, even if the odds are ‘wrong’ about Australia, and they actually have a 20% chance, that still means that 80% of the time you’ll lose your money. Plus, given the way the odds are stacked, the bookmakers are almost certain to rake in big profits regardless of what happens. You might beat the crowds, but you’ll rarely beat the house.

And yet, looking at the odds can help us think through the tournament in useful ways. For one thing, the sheer range of options is worth noting. There are definitely favorites, but even if you combine the chances of the US and France winning, it barely reaches 40%. That means it’s odds-on that someone who wasn’t a ‘favorite’ wins the tournament.

This is also a reason to be careful about drawing too many conclusions at the end of the tournament. The winner will deserve all the accolades they receive, but let’s not forget that there’s a great deal of randomness here. Victory is never foreordained. It takes real work, real skill, real performances on the field to take home the title. But it also takes some luck.

This also helps illustrate just how hard it is to put together a string of knockout victories against tough competition. The US Women’s National Team in 2019 is probably the best squad that this country has ever assembled. If not, it’s extremely close. Even so, in four of five worlds, they go home unsatisfied. 

All of which is to say: it’s a very different world now than it was in the tournaments of the 1990s, or even the 2000s. The game has grown, talent has spread, and victory is much harder to come by. That significantly increases the likelihood of failure by the best teams. But it should also make victory taste that much sweeter for whichever team is lucky enough to make it to the top of the hill.