Finding the Beauty in the Beautiful Game Again

Posted on by RJ Allen

The next generation is going to grow up having pretended to be Alex Morgan or Christen Press or Amy Rodriguez in their backyards.

They will be Hope Solo in goal when the sandbox is in and the monkey bars are out. It’s going to be Tobin Health they try to match trick for trick after watching her moves over and over on YouTube.

If they get bloody it will be Kelley O’Hara against China that springs to mind.

When they save a ball off the line it ill be Meghan Klingenberg’s name tossed around like a badge of honor. Julie Johnston is going to be their hero with a lion’s roar and fiery tackles. It’s going to be Carli Lloyd’s hat tick and Lauren Holiday’s perfect volley they try to imitate after each practice.

It will be Becky Sauerbrunn’s ability to do her job better than anyone else they remember. It will be Ali Krieger’s ability to move fluidly between defense and office that sets the bar. It will be Morgan Brian getting up from getting hit and never losing a step. It will be Megan Rapinoe’s celebrations that will be copied and built on and remembered.

Each generation looks to the one that came before it for inspiration. The 15ers put on one hell of a show, didn’t they?

I wrote those words–or something very close to them, because I can’t deny I did a little self editing–in the shadow of the World Cup win back in 2015.

Back then everything felt new. I was just some nobody on Tumblr, reblogging photos, and looking up stats, and talking about soccer late into the night with my friends. While I had followed on and off since 2004, it was all felt so different. It felt new and rejuvenated and, honestly, like nothing could hamper WoSo’s rising glory.

Fast forward to about two months ago and I felt lost. Numb really might be the better world. The off-season was coming to a close and the prep for the (historic) fifth season of the NWSL was in full swing here at Backline Soccer.

And yet, in general, all soccer was making me feel at the time was annoyed. Whether it was the unfortunate early exit of the USWNT from the Rio Olympics, the loss or retirement of longtime players at the international level, the long and seemingly never-ending grind of the CBA negotiations, or even just the way women’s soccer continued to be overshadowed in every corner by men’s teams and men’s leagues, I found myself burnt out on soccer.

While I love my job, while I love each and every day I get to work with the talented people here at Backline, I really didn’t feel any love for soccer at the time. I had to make sure we had 10 previews ready to go in short order on top of 10 preview TSR episodes. I was working 40+ hours a week on top of another 25 to 30 for the site.

Soccer was everywhere, all around me, and I couldn’t find the joy in it anymore.

And then I saw those words.

I saw the words I wrote back when I was just basking in the warmth of the World Cup on a long-deleted Tumblr. And for a moment I felt the numbness slip away and I let the magnitude of what happened in the summer of 2015 in Canada hit me again.

I turned on the Germany game that night. And I watched as the drama unfolded all over again. The feeling of that game, maybe one of my all time favorites, took away the numbness and brought back the beauty that I feel so deeply for.

Witnessing the moment between Solo and Sauerbrunn and Johnston after the “red card that should have been,” still caused my breath to hitch, my pulse to rise, my chest to tighten with the excitement and the wonder at what was happening on the field in front of me. Watching as the midfield worked together in a way we haven’t seen in well over a year was both delightful and a little painful. Seeing Morgan Brian stand after bashing her head into Popp’s still made me nervous for her as she went back in. Seeing Solo take an hour to get into goal for the PK all for Germany to have their first miss on this highest of stages is still hard to fathom. Watching as jack-of-all-trades Kelley O’Hara scored her game very first USWNT goal and sealed Germany’s fate made me cheer again, and I remembered how much I loved the beautiful game, the shock and the surprise of it. The way the entire world could turn upside down in less than a minute, a perfectly timed cut into the box and an extended foot just nudging the ball into the goal, and I could get caught up in it as if everything was happening again for the very first time.

When the game was over I put on the last few minutes of the final. Not the hat-trick, not Holiday’s perfect volley, not Tobin’s it-looks-so-easy goal, but the last few minutes. When everyone on that pitch knew they were about to finally reclaim a trophy the program spent 16 years fighting to take back.

Watching Ali Krieger fall to her knees on the same field that took her Olympic dreams away will never fail to bring a lump to my throat. Watching Carli Lloyd sink to hers, knowing she’d just written the opening line to every biography, interview, and introduction of the rest of her life, will never fail to make me smile. Watching Hope Solo finally summit the mountain she had never before quite been able to claim was satisfying.

And seeing Christie Pearce and Becky Sauerbrunn and Julie Johnston together brings me all the joy that someone who loves defense as much as I do can possibly feel.

After the game ended I put on the medal ceremony and just watched the joy of the women who’d just achieved one of their oldest and biggest dreams. Watched as players seasoned and rookie alike were awarded what was due, as all 23 women stood surrounded their captain, witnessing her lift it high and proud and so, so happy.

There’s a bittersweet hue to the images now, knowing how the next two years have shaken out. The cuts would soon happen, the new players who would come in and be added to the starting rotation while others would retire and fade into the pantheon where they belong. Rio was on my mind as I watched medals be placed around the necks of players who had not yet fought for and been denied their chance to become 2016 Olympic champions.

But as I sat there, screen black and cheers silent, I felt the numbness fade. I felt the worry about the season ease a little. And instead, I began to remember how much I loved all of this, the deadlines and the reporting and the podcasting, all of it. How much joy it brought to my life.

How much joy it brings so many.

My life was forever changed that day. My drive to become part of those who cover this sport grew out of that win. This seed of the idea of a site like Backline was planted that day even if I had no idea at the time. No idea how many friends I’d make and pieces I’d have a hand in creating and work I’d put in, none of that was real then. But it was all born that 5th of July.

There are a lot of dramatic things that happen in the NWSL and the USWNT. A lot of things I get mad online about, and mad on podcasts about,  and mad in writing about.  A lot of us do. Sometimes we need to step away from the trade rumors and the hot-takes and remember the beauty.

Sometimes we need to remember the moments that made us devote so much time and energy and passion into and remember the beauty. It only ever takes a few hours and a few replays of the moments that changed everything to remind myself just how beautiful it can be.

Soccer is a beautiful game, sometimes I forget that.

Off the Bench with Backline Soccer: 2017, Week 6

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to Week 6 of Off the Bench! 

Backline Soccer Recap:

This week we introduced a new series created by RJ Allen, The Furt & the Fabulous.

Quick Fire Week 6 Game Previews:

We are now six weeks into the season and suffice to say, we can expect almost anything to happen moving forward. Another exciting week of games ahead!

Game 1: Boston Breakers vs. Portland Thorns

Boston Breakers record: 2-2-1
Position: 4th
Total Points: 7

Portland Thorns record: 2-1-2
Position: 3rd
Total Points: 8

This week we will have our first Friday night game as the Boston Breakers host the Portland Thorns. Both teams are coming off of Week 5 ties and will be looking to pull out a win in Week 6. Rose Lavelle was the lone scorer for Boston last week and they will be looking for much of the same or more from her this week. Adriana Leon has also been quite the workhorse for Boston this season, so look for her to get involved as well.

Portland seems to be stifled and suffering due to the injuries sustained to Tobin Heath, Dagny Brynjarsdottir, Mana Shim, and Katherine Reynolds, who do not look to be coming back for at least another week. Adrianna Franch has been doing surprisingly well to avoid her weaknesses catching up with her, but Boston, with the likes of Lavelle, Leon, and Natasha Dowie may give her a run. Portland need a lot more production this week from Christine Sinclair and Nadia Nadim who have been a bit invisible the last few weeks. And with Portland historically having trouble playing the Breakers in Boston, the team will need to come together and figure out a way to score some goals. 

Game 2: Sky Blue FC vs. Houston Dash

Sky Blue FC record: 2-2-1
Position: 6th
Total Points: 6

Houston Dash record: 2-3-0
Position: 7th
Total Points: 4

In a repeat of Lifetime’s Game of the Week matchup, we will see the same matchup as last week, except this week, Sky Blue is the home team.

Sky Blue won last week’s matchup 3-1, capitalizing on some disappointing play from Houston. Sky Blue looked much better with Captain America finally back in defense and seemed to be playing with a bit more confidence. They will look to continue that this week. Now that Sam Kerr has officially gotten her first 2017 NWSL goal, she should be off and running. Houston will need to find a way to contain her, especially with Kelley O’Hara returning back to the lineup after being gone last week with an excused absence.

The Dash seem to have the pieces, for the most part, but some terrible coaching decisions are not helping field the best team at any given point like they should. Poliana, the sole scorer for the Dash last week, has been a bit of a surprising light for the Dash, so she should hopefully start to see more minutes. Janine Van Wyk also took a bit of a beating last week, so she will be looking to be more involved this week as well. 

Game 3: Washington Spirit vs. FC Kansas City

Washington Spirit record: 1-3-1
Position: 10th
Total Points: 4

FC Kansas City record: 1-2-2
Position: 8th
Total Points: 5

The Washington Spirit, wanting to erase last week’s abysmal game against the Reign from their memories, will want to come out strong and score early against FCKC this week.

After coming off of such a great win against Sky Blue in Week 4, they got pummeled 6-2 last week by the Reign. The Spirit, for the most part this season, seemed to have their defense locked down, but have had trouble on the attack. Last week, the defense seemed to be in shambles. The 3-back system deployed was not working against the strong Reign attack. This week though, the Spirit may be more evenly matched with FCKC, especially since Mallory Pugh is expected to see her first minutes. FCKC are still struggling to score, and Sydney Leroux, unfortunately, cannot be their only answer this season. Granted, the team had expected to have Amy Rodriguez this year, but they just don’t seem to have the answer yet to their attack that has not been stifled. FCKC will need to find a way to start scoring goals. Becky Sauerbrunn and the backline of FCKC are steady, along with Nicole Barnhart in goal. But in the end, if they are not scoring goals at this point, they are not winning games.

The Spirit will need more from their attack but expect their defense to be better. Mallory Pugh will not solve their problems, as her full value against top teams and the competitiveness of this league has not been tested or honed, but expect her to at least get her feet wet this week. 

Game 4: North Carolina Courage vs. Chicago Red Stars

North Carolina Courage record: 4-1-0
Position: 1st
Total Points: 12

Chicago Red Stars record: 2-2-1
Position: 5th
Total Points: 7

The Courage, coming off of their first season loss to the Orlando Pride last week, are out for redemption this week.

Chicago is continuing to have some issues with their attack and finishing their chances. But with Christen Press netting her first goal (a header no less!) she will most likely be off and running. She has been working hard to get goals but has not been successful in finishing her chances before this week. After all, she leads the league in shots and shots on goal this season. Now that she has netted her first one, we can expect to see, as our own Sandra Herrera has dubbed her, Primetime Press in full force. The backline of the Red Stars will be tested against the star power that is the Courage attack.

But the Courage will also be feeling much of the same. As I’ve mentioned before, the Courage backline seems to be their struggling spot this season and Christen Press may do major damage this week. The Courage will also be without Abby Erceg this week as she will be suspended from her red card from last week’s loss to Orlando. Chicago will want to and need to capitalize on that absence. 

Game 5: Seattle Reign vs. Orlando Pride

Seattle Reign record: 2-1-2
Position: 2nd
Total Points: 8

Orlando Pride record: 1-2-2
Position: 9th
Total Points: 5

Orlando is coming off of their first win of the season against the top team in the league, a huge, much-needed win for the players and team as a whole.

Orlando played, for the most part, their best soccer game this season. While starting off in typical fashion in the first half, the Pride came alive in the second. This week against the Reign, they will need to replicate their second half from last week and carry it throughout this game. The Reign are coming off a commanding 6-2 win over the Spirit last week and will look to continue their strong attack at home against the Pride.

The Pride has seemed to finally settle on a backline that surprisingly includes Toni Pressley. Last season she had a lot of trouble with speed and overall ball handling and field positioning. This season she seems to have worked on a lot of that and has improved quite a bit.

The Pride have also found a star in Camila, who has been consistently good all season. Look for the Pride backline to be tested early and often against the Reign. The Pride will have to contain the Reign attack. They will also need to get on a goal or two in early, definitely before halftime. The frontline has not been set quite but we may see the same three from last week.

The Reign this season have seemed to either score a lot of goals or struggle to score any, so for the Pride, they will hope for the latter. The Reign, however, will be looking to continue their strong attack and come out much like last week’s Spirit game. 

The Scouting Report:

We went live on Monday night with our Week 5 TSR, recapping all of the NWSL games from the weekend. A reminder that you can catch TSR live every Monday night at 8pm EST on our YouTube channel. And make sure to follow the podcast on Twitter @ScoutingPodcast. 

In case you missed this week’s episode, catch up here:

Come back next week for the next edition of Off the Bench!

 

Orlando Pride: Sticking to the Plan Will Earn a Result

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Orlando Pride will head to the Pacific Northwest once again this week to take on the highest scoring team in the league, the Seattle Reign.

The Pride, coming off the team’s first win of the season, take a ten-match road winless streak to Memorial Stadium. Orlando’s last road win, which is also the only road win in team history, came against the Houston Dash – ironically in Week 6. The talk from the Pride going in to face the Reign is to focus on their game more so than worrying on what Seattle plans to do in the match.

The Pride have been able to find some consistency on the backline with the budding partnership of Alanna Kennedy and Toni Pressley. The number of goals Orlando has given up has been significantly reduced since Pressley fought her way into the starting XI.

When asked if she can further improve this season Pressley shared, “I think I have a few more levels.”

They will need to concentrate on communication to close down passing lanes from Nahomi Kawasumi, Week 4 Player of the Week, to United States Women’s National Team player – and current leader in the golden boot race – Megan Rapinoe and the rest of the high-powered Seattle offense. Last week Orlando’s lone defensive lapse gave Debinha the opportunity to keep the Courage in the match longer than the Pride would have liked, and a team like Seattle will make Orlando pay if they make any mistakes defensively.

The Pride will attempt to dictate the pace of the match against the Reign and utilize the pace of their strikers to challenge goalkeeper Haley Kopmeyer and her backline.

As Coach Tom Sermanni stated in his post-match comments on Mother’s Day, “We just need to make sure we get a defensive structure set up and sorted properly. If you look at our backline, four out of our five are all internationals so we’ve got a decent backline. And if we can get our tactics right, I think we’ve got the players who can exploit the lack of mobility that Seattle has.”

All eyes will once again be on the Orlando midfielders, as Monica is still working her way back from a bone bruise. Dani Weatherholt’s defensive performance and ability to distribute the ball forward has provided space to Camila to go forward as Kristen Edmonds has provide cover for her in the midfield.

As defensive leader, Ali Krieger added in the post-match presser, “If we are good and compact and organized defensively I don’t think that they’re going to have good opportunities but you have to have the ball to do that so hopefully we’re going to have more possession and we’re going to take care of that.”

Playing with the ball more will limit the chances Seattle has in pushing the ball into their attacking third. Additionally, the Pride will need to congest the midfield and passing lanes for the Reign.

If the Pride end up playing the long ball on top, the team will not be playing their game as they have claimed they need to do to get a result in Seattle. Sermanni will have several options at attack. One of his focuses this week, as he stated, is exploiting the lack of mobility on the Reign backline. This is where the tactics will have to be right, and the Pride may look to surprise Seattle with a new look on top, as scoring on the road will be vital to keep pace. Marta will look to create opportunities to Chioma Ubogagu, who can also keep possession of the ball, and Danica Evans, the rookie standout for the Pride.

Orlando has struggled to get results away from home, and this week’s opportunity will be a challenge for them. But the team is brimming with confidence, and if Sermanni’s game plan can give fits to Laura Harvey’s side like they think it can, the Pride will leave Memorial Stadium with a positive result.

The Unused Sub: The Power of Words

Posted on by RJ Allen

This week’s installment has a lot of words for once.

AND SO THE MALLORY PUGH ERA IS UPON US

It started last Saturday with The Decision 2.0. Mallory Pugh was on the NWSL Game of the Week pre-show and made it official that she was joining the Washington Spirit and thus embarking on her professional soccer career. I’ll spare you the brief chat I had with someone at my day job yesterday who read about Pugh’s decision. It was the tired trope of, “She should stay in school!”

Naw, kid, get your money when you can, when it’s hot.

Of course, by the time it was made official on television, everyone knew about it. And by Saturday night, people may have forgotten about it because her team the Washington Spirit got absolutely demolished by the Seattle Reign FC. After the Spirit claimed a penalty, the Reign went to 11 and went on a four-goal, ten minute roughshod led by Nahomi Kawasumi who set a NWSL single-game record with four assists. FOUR. To think in the short history of the NWSL, we’ve seen some bonkers lopsided scorelines, yet at best from those games, a player would only have two assists at most. Then you had Kawasumi go gangbusters and claim four for herself.

A lot of eyes are going to be on Washington’s matchup against FC Kansas City this weekend. Pugh likely will make her debut – it’s just a matter of how much time she’ll see on the field. How much of an impact will she bring; will it be immediate or will it take the rookie time? It’s easy for me being on the other end of the country to say this, let’s just sit back and enjoy the ride. Let’s try not to anoint her as the second coming of anything for women’s soccer.

Let’s just sit back and let Mallory Pugh soccer play how Mallory Pugh only knows how she approaches the game. She’s going to do some cool shit stuff, and she’s going to struggle. She might put the Spirit on her back and be enough of an impact to win a match for the team. She might be completely shut out and rendered invisible on a field. We’ll have plenty of time to over-discuss and over-analyze how the professional debut of Mallory Pugh went, if it is this weekend, but the bottom line is it’s going to be an exciting moment for her (most importantly), the NWSL, and everyone that follows it – fan and media alike. So let’s just sit back and enjoy the moment.

WE HAD A DISCUSSION ABOUT DOUBLE STANDARDS AND HOO BOY WERE JIMMIES RUSTLED

When it was announced that Reign FC defender Merritt Mathias was suspended (rightfully) for violent conduct on the field, for some reason it brought on armchair psychologists suggesting she has anger issues and should go see someone about it.

A few of us raised an eyebrow over this apparent diagnosing from Internet comments. Stephanie Yang did a guest piece in Sounder At Heart on the overall narrative that somehow, for whatever reason female athletes are held to some higher standard than male athletes. The idea that female athletes aren’t allowed to get angry, and that it’s a double standard. Oh boy, did some people’s jimmies get rustled at that idea and they doubled-down on that yeah, “Mathias should get her head checked.”

Let me be clear in saying this: STOP. DOING. THAT. PEOPLE.

When Mathias and Stephanie McCaffery or any other female athlete gets angry on the field, it could very well be that they are just getting angry/lost in the moment.

When a quarterback berates a receiver because they dropped the ball, no one ever says that the quarterback “has anger issues” or should “act with more class.” They say the cliche thing of, “Oh he’s just a leader demanding perfection from his teammates.” When a baseball pitcher throws a retaliation pitch because the batter in the previous meeting hit a homer off them, no one suggests they have a problem with holding grudges and “should go talk to someone about it.” They cite “the unwritten rules of baseball” that apparently state a pitcher is entitled to throw a 95 MPH fastball (which science says has the force impact equivalent to a gun) at the batter because “they admired the homer.”

Female athletes are allowed to show as many emotions as their male counterparts do and they should be allowed to display them, without some further discussion as if there’s some underlying element. And if that emotion is negative – let it be. DO NOT SPECULATE THAT IT’S RELATED TO THAT PERSON’S MENTAL STATE ESPECIALLY IF YOU DO NOT KNOW THEM PERSONALLY.

The fact that people doubled-down on it and thought it was okay is just baffling. It’s disingenuous and incredibly dangerous. Seriously, how would you feel if whatever you did for a living was subjected to internet comments and a moment or two where you lost your cool and got angry, those behind a monitor & keyboard, total strangers, were questioning your mental health like that? Not a good feeling yeah?

DON’T. DO. IT. PLEASE.

SO ABOUT NAHOMI KAWASUMI

When you make NWSL history like she did on Saturday night, you get Player of the Week honors. This is the fourth time in her NWSL career that she has won that honor and puts her solely in second place on the all-time list of winning that honor. Crystal Dunn has the most so far in the award’s existence with six. And yes, she won all six of those during the 2015 season – yep, that season from her was that magical.

I’m going make a bold prediction regarding this: Nahomi Kawasumi will surpass Crystal Dunn as the player with most NWSL Player of the Week Honors.

It could be the Japanese international that gets behind the wheel and leads the Reign FC offense the way Kim Little did for the three seasons she was here. Yes, the team as a whole needs to string consecutive performances where they’re an absolute buzz-saw and I think this weekend’s matchup against Orlando will be another one. And I think Kawasumi will play a big factor in that. If Kawasumi goes on a run in the league, last Saturday’s outing against the Spirit could be the genesis of it.

So yes, she’s at four NWSL Player of the Week honors after this week’s announcement and I think there’ll be at least three more weeks where she takes it this season.

If you’re a Reign FC fan, you gotta love the sound of Rollin’ with the Homi to hopefully back into the NWSL Playoffs.

HOW MANY MINUTES WILL MALLORY PUGH PLAY – ONLY A GAMBLING SYNDICATE IN ASIA KNOWS

Here are this week’s predictions:

  • Boston Breakers OVER Portland Thorns FC.
  • Sky Blue FC OVER Houston Dash.
  • Washington Spirit and FC Kansas City play to a DRAW.
  • North Carolina Courage and Chicago Red Stars play to a DRAW.
  • Seattle Reign FC OVER Orlando Pride.

That last game is going to be a doozy. I think this is where Seattle strings consecutive performances of being the buzz-saw that people will remember. Orlando will get a goal but in the grand picture, it won’t matter much as Reign will continue to be in onslaught mode. Can I gripe at the Sunday evening start time? It’s cutting into my WWE Pay Per View event watching – I’m going to go write to my congressman about it cramping my style; after I attend the match of course.

Anywho, here’s this week’s music video break.

Song: “Information” | Artist: Eliot Sumner

Route Two Soccer – Updating Our Priors

Posted on by RJ Allen

I’ve been traveling this week and haven’t had a chance to catch most of the games yet. So in lieu of diagramming a specific match, I wanted to take a broader perspective—taking stock of the league and the teams now that we’re just about 20% through the season.

The NWSL season so far: we haven’t learned as much as we think we have

The persistent problem here (as with every attempt to analyze a complicated system) is the overwhelming force of randomness. Even when probabilities are set in stone, the actual distribution of results is subject to significant fluctuation. For example, if I flip a coin 10 times, I’d expect to get an equivalent number of heads and tails. And indeed, that’s the most likely result. But I’ll only actually get that specific result about one time in four. 40% of the time I’ll get a 6/4 distribution, one way or the other. And almost a third of the time, I’ll get something outside that range.

Point being: you’re often going to get results that look wildly out of line from your expectation. The issue is how to explain this effect. And there are (broadly speaking) three different possibilities:

  1. Sheer random variance. Perhaps we’re just in one of the 33% of worlds where heads came up at a disproportionate rate.
  2. Something has changed. The coin used to be weighted evenly, but due to some unanticipated effect, it has changed. In this case, we should expect results to remain on this new course.
  3. The initial prediction was wrong. Maybe the results are entirely in line with the true probability. It was simply our own misperception that led us to assign the wrong chance to the event.

Depending on which of these is correct, our expectations going forward will shift pretty significantly. So it’s actually quite important to put new information into context and assess where it leaves us now. And the unfortunate reality is that, as human beings, we are often desperate to impose narrative meaning onto randomness. We might know intellectually that it’s perfectly plausible for a coin to come up heads 8 times out of 10, but in our guts we’ll start to wonder if maybe the coin is lucky.

There have been countless studies of this effect, in everything from sports to weather to financial portfolios. Our natural inclination is to over-interpret the significance of the most recent data points and assume that it creates a new trendline which will proceed indefinitely.

Far more likely, though, is that unlikely outliers are just that: outliers. In that case, we should expect reversion to the mean. As time goes on, as we collect more data, results will trend back toward their expected performance and the outliers will be washed out by the accumulation of data.

By way of example, look to North Carolina who appeared to be unbeatable, right up until they lost. Going into the game, with Carolina riding high and Orlando stuck at the bottom of the table, that result may have seemed unlikely. But you only have to go back a month to find quite a few predicting Orlando and Carolina to be in close competition for a playoff spot. Based on that, Orlando winning at home would be thoroughly unsurprising.

But we have learned some things

All that said, while it’s important to not treat recent results as fully dispositive, we also don’t want to dig in too aggressively. After all, even if reversion to the mean is the most likely explanation for an outlier, that doesn’t mean that we know what the mean is.

The point, after all, isn’t that every result is literally random (that in a given match, every team is as likely to win as to lose). The ‘mean’ is simply the most likely result for a given team. For a good team, over time that might stabilize around 2 points per game. For a terrible team, it might stabilize at 0.5 points per game.

The question is how much five games should change our expectations. And this is where qualitative work becomes more important.

When you’ve got a well-designed model, that has been rigorously tested and analyzed, it will often beat expert predictions, even without the ability to draw ‘thick’ qualitative inferences—simply by virtue of processing power.

But, as we all know, soccer is a complicated game, involve a lot of moving parts. And beyond that, the sort of complex modeling that has been developed in some men’s sports simply doesn’t exist for women’s soccer.

The closest we’ve got for the NWSL is the prediction system at Fivethirtyeight, which appears to be a relatively ‘dumb’ model. That is to say: it knows baseline results but not much else. That’s not a terrible thing, since even with a ‘dumb’ model, you’ll generally get a reasonable assessment. It may be dumb, but that is precisely what keeps it from over-correcting sometimes.

Still, while regressing to the mean is a good starting point, you don’t want to completely ignore the information that you can glean from actually watching the games. After all, we’re all familiar with games where one team dominates but ends up losing from one unlucky bounce, or games when a team creates a ton of chances and just can’t manage to finish. The result is ultimately what matters the most, of course. But for predictive purposes, there is a lot more to a game than just the final scoreline. This is one of the key insights of expected goals.

Alright, so how should we interpret events so far?

My default is to approach things from the perspective of Bayesian inference. We build initial predictions based on the best available evidence and then determine how confident we are in those guesses. These are our priors.

As new information filters in, we assess how it comports with our priors. If our priors were strong, we can regard a modest disconnect as perfectly acceptable, requiring no meaningful update of the prediction. Even very good teams play poorly now and again, and we can safely regard this as just the sort of normal variation that comes with a game that includes significant elements of chance.

In cases of weak priors, new information will be more highly valued, since it can help to ease the fog of uncertainty. However, even here it’s important to remember that small sample sizes are inherently unstable. If you were unsure about the quality of a team a month ago, that should likely remain the dominant theme of your analysis.

The key point here is: if your perspective on a team has shifted significantly after five games, you’re probably overestimating the significance of those games and underplaying the importance of all the work that went into the initial prediction. Over the long term, good predictions should be pretty stick—not shifting too quickly except in relatively rare cases of genuine major transformation.

Updating our priors

Taking all that into account, let me walk through a few of the main priors that were widely (but by no means universally) shared going into this season, to see how they’re faring.

  1. Portland, Chicago, and North Carolina as likely playoff teams

Everything still looks good on this front. Neither Portland nor Chicago has yet played particularly well, but they remain at the top of the table. It would be a decent bet to assume both will play better going forward and draw a bit further from the crowd.

Meanwhile, North Carolina has outperformed the other two, and has been widely regarded as the class of the league so far. And through five games, that has been true. Whether we expect that to continue for the next 19 is more of an open question. The weaknesses diagnosed before the season for them haven’t gone away, so it would be at least a little bit surprising if they continued to pace the league by such a large margin.

  1. Washington, Boston, and Houston as challengers for the bottom

These three were generally regarded as the weakest of the league. So far, nothing we’ve seen from Washington or Houston argues strongly against that premise. Both have shown flashes of quality, but both have also struggled mightily.

Boston, however, have been the darlings of league so far, and are being discussed as a legitimate playoff contender. And they are one of the key points of conflict as we attempt to update our predictions. Just how much should one make from their performance so far? Seven points from five games is good, and clearly shows that they are miles better than they were in 2016. On the other hand, any run of the mill bad team will have stretches like that in a season.

Those results, therefore, are perfectly consistent with the prior that said: ‘Boston will be much improved, turning from a dreadful team into a mediocre one.’

The question is whether Boston’s performances have been good enough to challenge that assumption. After all, they thrashed Seattle (who has been very good in their other three recent games), and played very even with two expected playoff contenders (NC and Chicago), even if they only got a solitary point from those games.

From my perspective, this is a case where new information has only increased the uncertainty. It is still quite possible that Boston could drift back down toward the bottom soon. It’s also quite possible that they continue to play at this level and hang around in the playoff race all season. I haven’t seen enough yet to feel confident in either direction. A month from now, we’ll likely be in a far better position to assess their true talent.

  1. Parity

This was the mantra going into the season, and everything so far has supported the idea. While North Carolina remains a full length ahead of the field, everyone else is packed close, with just four points separating 2nd from 10th.

It’s been a season full of surprising results. But that’s hardly surprising in the broader sense. Because when everyone is reasonably close in quality, you should expect a lot of strange results from game to game, while also expecting those to even out over the long term.

  1. Seattle???

One of the biggest peculiarities this year is Seattle, who have performed exceptionally against two weak teams, played a tough draw against Portland, while also looking awful against Sky Blue and Boston. But again, this shouldn’t necessarily be too surprising, as it fits fairly well with the consensus preseason opinion that Seattle was a flawed team with enough talent to beat anyone but enough weaknesses to fall flat against anyone.

Like Boston, they are tough to lock down. But unlike Boston, there’s no particular reason to expect all that much more clarity. Chances are decent that they’ll simply remain like this all year—mixing good and bad performances evenly enough to stay in the playoff hunt without ever giving their supporters much reason to feel safe.

Unsung Hero of the Week: Broon the Broom

Posted on by RJ Allen

In this weekly series, I will be highlighting a player from the weekend who was their respective team’s unsung hero, win or lose. A player who does the dirty work, does the little but important things in a game and someone who didn’t exactly fill up the stat sheet but found other ways to contribute.

This week I’ve chosen FC Kansas City defender Becky Sauerbrunn.

The 31-year-old has been with FCKC since the first year of the club’s existence back in 2013 and has appeared 57 times. And for all that time, the Blues captain has been one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in the women’s game. Everyone knows she’s good, but people don’t quite seem to get just how good she is. Commonly referred to as Broon by fans and media alike, she is quiet, steady, reliable, and hard-working: the sort of player any club or country in the world would love to have.

FCKC 0-0 Portland

Kansas City and Portland each had significant players out due to injury, with Tobin Heath still out for the Thorns and Desiree Scott being added to FCKC’s lengthy injury list. Knowing this, I gave Portland the slight advantage going in. I also had a feeling that it would be a defensive battle, as each team has only given up three goals in five games, tied for best in the league. Portland obviously has a dangerous club on paper, led by Christine Sinclair with a star-studded supporting of Nadia Nadim, Allie Long and Amandine Henry, and more. But Sauerbrunn and her backline held each of these players in check and as a team, Portland mustered just 9 shots total with only two on goal.

Sauerbrunn just doesn’t let anyone get by her. She is calculating, organized and extremely patient in her play. Broon doesn’t have a ton of speed, but has a way of positioning herself to more than make up for it. Where many players would need to race somewhere at top speed, she sees things developing and puts herself in position well in advance of the play. She also rarely gives up free-kicks in dangerous areas, a testament to her awareness and here calm style of play.

An example of her ability to read the game so well was showcased in the 15th minute. Portland were on the quick counter with Haley Raso and Sinclair charging forward into the Blues’ final third. Sauerbrunn tracked 30 yards to snatch a pass that Raso was looking to thread in for Sinclair, cutting off the threat and sliding a cool pass to her keeper Nicole Barnhart. If Sauerbrunn hadn’t read that pass and timed her interception perfectly, Sinclair would’ve had plenty of green in front of her for an enticing 1v1 with Barnhart.

When watching her play, it’s almost as if Sauerbrunn has a magnetic connection with the ball, stopping passes through the middle, long balls over the top, and tough crosses alike. She leads the NWSL with 36 clearances, and you could see plenty of them this weekend. Overall, Portland has a height advantage over FCKC, but every time the ball was served in, Sauerbrunn and Yael Averbuch rose above the crowd to head it away. 

While the offense continues to struggle, it’s safe to say that Sauerbrunn and her defense are already in mid-season form.

The captain moves so gracefully around the pitch and her tackling ability is just as pretty to witness. One instance of it came in the 49th minute, Portland again were on the counter. This time it was Lindsey Horan and Raso executing the break. Horan drew three FCKC defenders to her as she charged into the middle of the 18-yard box. She sprayed a pass to her right that found Raso 10 yards from Barnhart, and wide open. But she wasn’t open for long, because Sauerbrunn raced to cover the space and then executed a clean tackle on Raso who must have been stunned to see such a good opportunity snuffed in the blink of an eye. It was a remarkable tackle, and one that I’ve seen her make hundreds of times. 

And that’s the essence of Sauerbrunn. She does the amazing so often that we grow accustomed to it. But we shouldn’t let that consistency dull our perception of her brilliance.

Sauerbrunn is constantly working on her game and sharpening her skills, and in my opinion, she has become the best center back in the women’s game since stepping onto the world stage in 2008 for the United States Women’s National team. If Sauerbrunn and FCKC can continue this solid defensive play while somehow finding a match to ignite the attack in the coming weeks, Kansas City could very well make it back to the playoffs this year.

The Furt & the Fabulous, Episode 1

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to the Furt and the Fabulous. A new series that looks at the highs and lows in the world of WoSo. Each week I will be giving 2 to 4 Furts (the bad stuff) and 2 to 4 Fabulouses (the good stuff).

The Furt

Furt #1: USSF Interrupts the NWSL Season . . . Again . . .

In a season with no Olympics or World Cup USSF has decided to host a second four-team tournament. After the USWNT came in 4th out of 4 teams in March during the SheBelieves Cup, they’ll now be trying their luck against Japan, Australia and Brazil. 

As Jordan Small reported last week,

The U.S. will open the tournament on July 27 in Seattle when they take on Australia. They will then travel to San Diego to take on Brazil on July 30. The tournament will wrap up on Aug. 3 when the team takes on Japan at the StubHub Center in Carson, California.

I have nothing against the USWNT playing these three teams. I am against them doing it in the middle of the NWSL season, forcing the national team players to miss at least one game after the tournament, likely another one before (if past history is any indication), and possibly more for recovery.

Furt #2: NWSL Attendance is Starting to be Concerning

https://twitter.com/CaptainWOSO/status/863952071757885440

We need to start being worried about attendance.

I am not one to be an alarmist when it comes to attendance in general. But even I can’t look at less than 1,800 people at a game featuring two popular teams and not be worried.

Yes, it’s May.

Yes, the games are during the day and not 7 pm.

Yes, some of the bigger Portland stars and Amy Rodriguez are MIA.

But this is not something unique to this weekend. Numbers are down across the league and across the weeks. And teams are seeing dips in attendance rather than rising numbers.

Seattle had 3,521 tickets sold opening weekend and now, in the fifth week, pulled 500 less. And yes, I know the Sounders are out-of-town playing Chicago this week. But did 500 joint Sounder/Reign fans make the trip? Doubtful.

What worries me more is FC Kansas City, who sold 3340 tickets opening weekend but pulled just 1,796 against Portland this week. Even with ARod out that is not a great sign for the two-time champs.

I don’t believe this is all Lifetime putting the game of the week on at 4 pm Eastern time. It likely doesn’t help, but there’s something more going on here, and we should be getting a little concerned.

The Fabulous

Fabulous #1: The Homi Assists 4 goals and Scores 1.

Nahomi Kawasumi is good at soccer in case anyone had forgotten. Four assists in a month of soccer is pretty damn good. Four assists in one game is a level of vision and talent that shows just how great this World Cup winner really is.

The Homi set up goals for Christine Nairn in the 20th minute and Bev Yanez in the 35th minute. Then, after what I can only assume was a Popeye can of spinach at halftime, she assisted Megan Rapinoe in the 71st and Lindsey Elston 8 minutes later in the 79th. And, to top it off, she also threw in a goal of her own in the 68th minute, just to mix things up a bit.

Plus, some of Naho’s work led to this very gifable moment.

Fabulous #2: Kerr and Galton Score a Pair of Beauties 

There are few things that make me as happy as Sam Kerr doing Sam Kerr things all over the pitch, except maybe Sam Kerr and Leah Galton doing their thing together.

With Kelley O’Hara out of the match a lot of the pressure was put on Kerr and Galton and company to get the 3 points on the road for Sky Blue.

And oh boy did they deliver.

Poor Lydia Williams was left out to dry more often than wash in the summer, but it took some excellent work to capitalize. And both of these shots would be near impossible for any goalkeeper to stop.

6 Takeaways From NWSL: Week Five

Posted on by RJ Allen

After five weeks of play in the NWSL, we’ve seen that anyone can beat anyone. Just look at Orlando beating North Carolina. How many of you called that one? But perhaps the biggest news of the weekend was Washington adding Mallory Pugh to their roster. Now we could go on all day, but we know you’re here for our takeaways. Here’s what we took away from week 5 of the NWSL.

Where has Adriana Leon been all this time? – Leigh Nieves

Leon has been an undeniable stand out for the Boston Breakers in their first 5 games coming away with 2 assists and 1 goal thus far. Which may not seem like an impressive number, but a simple eye test would tell you that she is a completely different player from the one we saw for the Western New York Flash in 2016. She seems to be a part of every attack, her passing is much more precise, and her connections with Rose Lavelle and Natasha Dowie seem to be flourishing. Although most of the attention this season has (rightly so) been on Lavelle, the rise of Leon has been interesting to witness.

FCKC needs to score more – Leigh Nieves

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but FC Kansas City hasn’t scored much since they unexpectedly lost Amy Rodriguez from their starting line up in the first game. In fact, they’ve only scored one goal in their last four match-ups bringing their season total to a whopping 3 goals. Fortunately though, they’ve also only allowed 3 goals. FCKC’s defense actually is having a vintage season. Nicole Barnhart is playing strong, Broon is Broon, and with the talent of newcomer Christina Gibbons, their backline is seeming pretty solid. Their attack is another story. It’s problematic that even with the addition of Sydney Leroux, they can’t seem get anything in the back of the net when they need it most… Is this a sad time that I bring up how much we miss Heather O’Reilly?

Nahomi Kawasumi is the real deal – Jordan Small

We’ve seen Nahomi Kawasumi play for the Seattle Reign off and on for years now. But Saturday’s performance vs. the Washington Spirit was unlike any we’ve seen before. With four assists and a goal of her own, Kawasumi helped the Reign offense explode for six goals. Kawasumi and midfielder Christine Nairn worked well together this week, combining for the opening goal this weekend. Teams should be afraid to play the Reign in the next few weeks as the partnership of Megan Rapinoe and Kawasumi on the wings has started to heat up.

Lost in it all, a streak is over – Jordan Small

It has been a quite a while since we saw Kassey Kallman sitting on the bench. Since 2014, Kallman had played 4,018 minutes straight in the NWSL. That streak came to an end on Saturday when she was subbed out in the 59th minute. If she was not hurt, this sub seems wrong. The Spirit were torched down the left side after Kallman came out. Spirit head coach Jim Gabarra will have a difficult decision to make next week when Kansas City comes to town.

Attendance still an issue – Luis Hernandez

It’s hard to pinpoint the cause for the drop in attendance this year. Critics will point the finger to the change in match time to accommodate the broadcast on Lifetime,  and it’s true that plays a factor into the numbers; however, that’s not the sole reason. The schedule has run into Easter and Mother’s Day and surely within each individual team market there are extenuating circumstances. Take both Orlando’s week five attendance of 5,260 and the best of the week Houston at 5,369. In both markets, the men’s side hosted an MLS match the day before the women’s side took to the field. Mother’s Day certainly affected people going to these matches, especially for the Pride playing on Sunday. Additionally, it’s blazing hot in the stands. Bottom line, attendance is lower than last season, but it isn’t going to be fixed this year. Hopefully, the league has been and will continue studying the problem and make corrections to boost numbers.

Randy Waldrum might be what’s wrong with Houston – Luis Hernandez

19-37-14. Take it in because that’s the record Randy Waldrum has since being appointed coach of the Houston Dash since leaving Notre Dame to take the job. Known as a successful college coach, Waldrum hasn’t been able to translate that success at the professional level. Additionally, as he was coaching the Dash, Waldrum also took the unpaid position as national team coach for Trinidad and Tobago in 2014 and was let go in early 2016. The Dash haven’t developed and progressed under his leadership even as the team talent level grows. Talent can only take you so far in this league, a quality manager makes those adjustments to get the most from the players on the roster. Waldrum’s post match comments after the lose to Sky Blue FC started to indicate he may be losing the locker room. I think he makes it to the end of the year, but perhaps Dash fans this is as good as it gets until Houston decides to go a different direction.

Well, those are our takeaways from week five of the NWSL. Can this league get any crazier? Will they finally figure out how to work these streams? Tune in for week 6 of the NWSL to find out. What did you think about week five? We would love to hear from you in the comments below or find us on twitter @backlinesoccer.

 

Congratulations, RJ!

Posted on by RJ Allen

 

We at Backline Soccer are here for two reasons, and two reasons only. First, we love women’s soccer. And second, our boss, RJ Allen, found us, cultivated us, and gave us the freedom to do something we love. 

Today, RJ graduates from college, and so we wanted to take a moment to thank her, to congratulate her, and to share how proud we are of her with all of you.

So, congratulations, RJ. You did it. And we are so proud of you!

[FinalTilesGallery id=’1′]

Off the Bench with Backline Soccer: 2017, Week 5

Posted on by RJ Allen

Image Credits to Kelley Piper. 

Welcome to Week 5 of Off the Bench! 

Backline Soccer Recap:

Quick Fire Week 5 Game Previews: 

Hard to believe we have arrived at Week 5 of the 2017 NWSL season already. Let’s dive right into this week’s previews.

Game 1: Houston Dash vs. Sky Blue FC

Houston Dash record: 2-2-0
Position: 4th
Total Points: 6

Sky Blue FC record: 1-2-1
Position: 8th
Total Points: 4

The Lifetime Game of the Week this week sees the Houston Dash finally return home for their first home game since opening day, to take on Sky Blue FC. Last week saw the Dash lose their first game to the Red Stars since July of 2015, while Sky Blue lost to the Spirit 4-3. Both teams will be looking to bounce back from their respective losses. Sky Blue was missing some big names last week with Christie Pearce, Daphne Corboz, and Raquel Rodriguez all missing from action. With only Pearce missing because of concussion protocol, Sky Blue can expect to see Corboz and Rodriguez back in action, but as of this writing, Pearce’s status is unknown for Week 5. The Dash will look to produce better results and some goals this week, as they scored none against the Red Stars last week. Amber Brooks will be the key for the Dash, so she will have to have a better game this week. The Dash are looking good as individuals but are still having cohesion issues that will bite them more, the further into the season we go. Hopefully with Morgan Brian seemingly back in action, and Andrea hopefully close, they can start to mesh a little better.

Game 2: Seattle Reign vs. Washington Spirit

Seattle Reign record: 1-1-2
Position: 6th
Total Points: 5

Washington Spirit record: 1-2-1
Position: 7th
Total Points: 4

The Reign are coming in this week after drawing with the Thorns last week after giving the Thorns a little aid from an own goal by Jess Fishlock. The Reign looked to be the better team but just couldn’t hold the lead. This week they will look to keep up the pressure from last week’s match and press early and often. The Spirit are coming off of a big first season win that saw them score four goals on Sky Blue last week. The Spirit looked their best last week and will look to continue that train of momentum into Week 5 against a strong Seattle side. Washington will look, again, to see a big performance from Stephanie Labbé, who has been dominating in goal through the first four weeks. If Player of the Week Francisca Ordega can pull off another big game this weekend, the Spirit just may have a shot to beat the Reign. 

Game 3: FC Kansas City vs. Portland Thorns

FC Kansas City record: 1-2-1
Position: 9th
Total Points: 3

Portland Thorns record: 2-1-1
Position: 2nd
Total Points: 6

FC Kansas City and Portland will face off in the last game on Saturday. Both FCKC and Portland are coming off of hard-fought draws last week against the Pride and Reign, respectively. Portland, while suffering in the first half, had a strong showing in the second half. They will look to carry that momentum into this week. Seattle did a great job last week of making Christine Sinclair and Nadia Nadim almost invisible. Portland will need them more active. It was also reported by Jamie Goldberg that Portland would again be without Tobin Heath, Mana Shim, Katherine Reynolds, and Dagny Brynjarsdottir as they struggle to return from their injuries. Portland will need to figure out the struggles in the final third until Heath returns. FC Kansas City is going to need a lot more out of Sydney Leroux if they are going to start churning out wins. In addition, Shea Groom saw minutes last week, even with a broken rib, but she was looking to be in pain as the match progressed, which could be a factor against Portland. FCKC is strong defensively and with Portland struggling in the final third, this game could see some great action. 

Game 4: Orlando Pride vs. NC Courage

Orlando Pride record: 0-2-2
Position: 10th
Total Points: 2

NC Courage record: 4-0-0
Position: 1st
Total Points: 12

The battle of the first and last place teams. Could this week be the week the Pride get their first win in twelve games? Crazier things have happened. The Pride, while drawing last week with FCKC, played some of the best soccer they have played all season. They are still struggling with finishing their chances and should have beaten FCKC had they done so. The Courage’s only weakness can be found in their defense at the moment and the Pride were able to break through them the last time they played, but just could not finish their chances. With Danica Evans and Marta both hopefully getting the start again, we could see a better output earlier from the Pride. Last week also saw Ali Krieger’s best game she has played for Orlando, and they will need everything she has for the front line of the Courage. Orlando continues to struggle with their midfield which is causing a lot more unnecessary work for their defense. The Pride starting lineup looked a lot better last week, but with Monica getting injured in the first few minutes of the match, Dani Weatherholt may end up with the start. The Courage just need to continue to play the way they have while shoring up their defensive efforts. If Orlando can finish their chances and work the backline of the Courage, they might just have a shot.

Game 5: Chicago Red Stars vs. Boston Breakers

Chicago Red Stars record: 2-2-0
Position: 3rd
Total Points: 3

Boston Breakers record: 2-2-0
Position: 5th
Total Points: 6

The final game of the weekend will see the Red Stars and Breakers face off at Toyota Park. The Red Stars will look to use the momentum of the shut out against Houston last week as they face a Breakers side who are a lot stronger than anyone expected them to be. A big question mark for the Red Stars is Christen Press who, while working hard this season so far, has yet to find the back of the net. She leads the league in shots but is also sitting on two yellow cards in four games, quite the unexpected stat. Once she unleashes her first goal, the season should progress nicely for her. In the meantime, Julie Ertz seems to have gotten this scoring thing down. Chicago continues to struggle in the final third, which may pose a bigger issue against the Breakers this weekend if they cannot correct it. The Breakers, on the other hand, have started this season quite strong. They lost to the Courage last week, but only by one goal. Boston proved last week that the Courage have some points where they can be beaten and they will look to carry that into Chicago this weekend. They mainly struggled with breaking out of pressure to get their runs in. That will be a priority this week against the tough defensive side of Chicago. 

The Scouting Report:

We went live on Monday night with our Week 4 TSR, recapping all of the NWSL games. 

In case you missed it, catch up here:

This week RJ Allen also had the pleasure of interviewing Kayla Mills and Mandy Freeman of Sky Blue FC.

Catch up here if you missed this awesome interview!

Come back next week for the next edition of Off the Bench!