Women’s World Cup Daily: Previewing the Round of 16

Tomorrow begins the knockout stage. While we all take a break today, here is a preview for each match. If you want a bit more detail on a couple of the most tantalizing games, head over and check out our own Allison Cary’s post on the Top Three Matchups in the Round of 16.

Germany – Nigeria (22 June, Grenoble)

Germany will be heavy favorites, but it would be a huge mistake to write off Nigeria. They were after all one bizarre penalty retake away from earning a draw against France. And their strike force has the speed and intelligent movement to wreck the fragile Germany defense. The big question will be whether Nigeria can do enough to harass the German midfield. If this turns into a training ground exercise sort of match, with Nigeria endlessly chasing, I have faith in Germany’s ability to pick off the defense and score the goals they’ll need.

Norway – Australia (22 June, Nice)

One of the most exciting matches of this round. If you subtract Sam Kerr, Norway has arguably the stronger team in all three lines right now. Of course, add Kerr back and the equations start to change pretty rapidly. Not only is she arguably the best striker in the world, her mere presence warps games and forces the other team to re-organize to accommodate. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. In theory, this should be a high-scoring thriller, with Norway using their ability to attack directly to pose all sorts of troubles for Australia’s cobbled-together backline, and Australia firing back with Kerr and Foord up top. But it could go very much in the other direction. If Norway decide to focus on controlling the midfield and starving Kerr of chances, this might end up a tedious 0-0 decided on penalties.

England – Cameroon (23 June, Valenciennes)

England went three-for-three in the group stage without quite kicking into full gear. This could be more of the same, against a Cameroon team who has proven to be quite difficult to play without posing nearly as much attacking threat as anticipated. As with every England game, one big question will be who Phil Neville chooses to play. It’s a squad with a huge amount of depth, and with five or six spots where you can make compelling arguments in multiple directions about who to play. Will he go with experience or youth? Pace or precision? Volatility or dependability? I’m particularly curious to see whether Georgia Stanway might have done enough to play herself into taking over the role of creative midfielder from Fran Kirby.

France – Brazil (23 June, Le Havre)

This is the glamor tie of the round, with two of the great names in world soccer. But these are very much two teams moving in different directions. France is a co-favorite for the tournament, while Brazil is an aging team trying to eke out one more result before their key players shuffle off the stage. Still, for all their struggles coming into the tournament (nine losses in a row!), Brazil managed six points in the group stage, including a solid performance against Italy in their last game. But for all that Italy has been great, they’re no France. Brazil will need much better from Marta (who hasn’t really contributed much, to be honest) and will need flawless games from the likes of Thaisa and Andressinha. That’s certainly possible, but if they expose any cracks, that midfield is going to get absolutely run over by France, and that will probably be the game.

USA – Spain (24 June, Reims)

If this game feels familiar, it should. The US played Spain just five months ago. It was a 1-0 game for the US that day, but Spain earned plaudits for their excellent possession and ability to control the game for long stretches. Expect some of the same this time, but probably to a lesser extent. The US were in their off-season last time, with Spain right in the middle of their season. That’s not true now, and it’s hard to see this version of the US conceding any space for Spain to play. The main question for the game is whether Spain is able to exert enough control in the middle of the pitch to dictate play, or if the US can overload the wings and bring overwhelming force to bear against the center backs before anyone can get back to help them. I’m betting on the latter, and would be surprised at any result other than a comfortable win for the US.

Sweden – Canada (24 June, Paris)

This has been widely billed as a boring tie between two teams that play hyper-defensively. Which is a good test of whether folks have actually been watching Sweden. Because this version of Sweden is hardly the stolid defending team that rode a series of drab games to the Olympic final three years ago. They may not be scoring much, but it’s not for lack of trying. They’re not going to say damn the torpedoes and go full leather into the attack, but this shouldn’t be a completely cagey match, and has at least some potential to be genuinely interesting. Both coaches have the ability and willingness to adapt, which could make for some fascinating chess as the game progresses.

Italy – China (25 June, Montpellier)

Italy were the surprise winners of Group C and as a reward got a game that certainly looks easier on paper than their groupmates. But in practice, this looks like precisely the sort of team that Italy will hate to play. China showed against Germany that they have the ability to play an aggressive physical game which depends very little on doing anything constructive. But Italy’s success so far has largely come from two things. First, picking at the weak spots in their opponent’s setup and then ruthlessly exploiting them. Second, using their physicality to disrupt the opposition, riding their luck a little bit to avoid getting tossed into the sin bin. Will they have the same results against the chaotic bundle of energy that is China? On the opposite side, will China look to play at full tilt like they did against Germany, or will they sit a bit deeper and ride their luck like they did against Spain. The former was far more successful than the latter, so I’d be surprised to see anything else here. Let’s all say a brief prayer for the lower-body health of Italy’s forwards.

Netherlands – Japan (25 June, Rennes)

On paper, this looks like the most exciting match of the round. Two teams with a lot of attacking potential, but in very different styles. The Dutch will look to spread the defense, to create spaces for Miedema to work in, and to give their wide attackers targets to ping with crosses, and create room for slashing runs. This relies on a great deal of technical ability but is fundamentally about vertical movement. Japan, by contrast, are all about triangles. They’ll hope to move the ball quickly through the middle. So far, Japan has been more potential than reality, and my gut tells me that will continue here as well. The Netherlands are absolutely exploitable, but I’m not sure Japan has enough firepower to match the goals they’re likely to concede. At the risk of invoking the pundit’s curse and ensuring this ends up 0-0, I’d expect goals—quite a lot of goals—here.  

Women’s World Cup Daily – June 20

June 20: Matchday 14

The group stage is over. It took 14 days and 32 games to eliminate a grand total of eight teams. It’s actually kind of a silly process, but so many of these games have been so great that I find it hard to really complain. 

Cameroon 2 – 1 New Zealand

Netherlands 2 – 1 Canada

In the day’s early games, the Netherland confirmed their status at the top of the group with a win, albeit not a particularly easy one. The real excitement was in Cameroon v. New Zealand, where we looked set for yet another ‘draw that helps neither team’ until literally the final seconds of the game, when Cameroon found their winner. It was an absolutely magical moment for them, and a well-deserved result for a team that has played tough in all three games. That result did eliminate Argentina and Thailand, and really put the pressure on Chile for the late game–forcing them to win by a clear three goals to advance.

The Canada-Netherlands game mostly confirmed things we already knew about these teams. Canada did an excellent job killing off the game for about an hour – showing why many of us have tipped them as team that could go further than might seem plausible. They’re not going to beat many of the other top teams, in the sense of outplaying them. But they can neutralize just about anyone. 

At the same time, the Dutch did find two goals, one more than Canada had conceded over the entire rest of 2019. So even though the Netherlands still didn’t quite look right, there were a few solid glimpses of the team that won the Euros. It was enough to net them the two goals they needed. 

If they expect to go significantly further in the tournament, they’re going to need to get better performances from their defenders, who once again looked pretty shaky. They also may want to consider whether the likes of Jill Roord and Lineth Beerensteyn might deserve a start. They’ve been getting very little from Lieke Martens and Shanice van de Sanden. It’s hard to argue against going with proven talent, and the substitutions have been working well. But they’ve also had to ride a decent bit of luck to win their three games.

Sweden 0 – 2 United States

Thailand 0 – 2 Chile

Heartbreak for Chile, who came achingly close to qualifying for the knockout stage by only managing two of the three goals they needed. I was in Le Havre watching the US so I didn’t get a chance to see it, but it sounds like this was the truly exciting match of the late time slot, one which was unfortunately probably seen by a tiny fraction of the people who watched the other game.

But since I was one of those who watched the other game, that’s where I’ll have to restrict my comments.

After two matches that were effectively uncontested, the US finally got to face some serious opposition. It didn’t actually look that serious in the opening twenty or thirty minutes, as the US moved at breakneck speed and looked like a constant threat to score. Sweden struggled badly in this period to do anything with the ball, occasionally finding a little space out wide but almost nothing else. And they also seemed at a loss to cope with the US ball movement and speed of play. They didn’t really press, but also didn’t drop back to limit space. They mostly just backpedaled and then got turned by either a dribble or pass. It looked like it might turn into another bloodbath.

But eventually Sweden got their bearings, and the US dropped off a bit. The second half was much closer, with Sweden finding a lot more time on the ball, getting a lot of dangerous play from Kosovare Asllani in the middle and from Sofia Jackobsson out wide. Fridolina Rolfo also looked dangerous after she came on as a substitute.

Still, in spite of those threats, the US never really looked to be in danger. After a wonder goal from Tobin Heath (officially listed as an own goal), they rested fairly easily on their 2-0 margin.

In the end, that pretty much just means they held serve. This was a second-string Sweden team, with quite a few changes from their primary XI, and the US would have been expected to win pretty easily. Which they did. And that’s fine. When you’re the best team in the tournament, as long as you hold serve you’ll probably win. 

But this certainly was’t a dominant performance, and it showed that all the weaknesses we’ve discussed at length are still there. 

It also exposed one newish weakness: Megan Rapinoe. I don’t think this is actually that new of a phenomenon, since I actually struggle to think of examples from this year when she’s really been Megan Rapinoe. But this was a particuarly rough game for her. She was virtually nonexistent in the attack, and actively blew up several promising moves. It’s possible that this is her lingering injury. Maybe it’s rust from lack of training and limited games. Maybe she’s just finally reverted to the aging curve we all expected her to follow a couple years ago. Or maybe it’s just a bad patch and she’ll be back in top shape soon. I certainly don’t feel comfortable saying for sure. But given how dynamic Christen Press has been in that exact role, it’s certainly time to at least consider whether Press should be the first choice there for the upcoming knockout games.

Notes

– If you didn’t see it already, check out my post on last night’s truly mad experience: Scotland, Argentina, and the Human Condition.

– The second US goal was allowed to stand. And according to the rules as they appear to be written (and interpreted), that is apparently the correct call. But by any reasonable interpretation, it should clearly have been disallowed. Carli Lloyd very obviously interfered with play from an offside position. This is the rule, apparently. But it is an absolute nonsense rule and we should absolutely not tolerate it.

Tomorrow’s action

There are no games tomorrow. I don’t really know what we’re supposed to do with ourselves, to be completely honest.

 

Women’s World Cup Daily – June 10

June 10: Matchday 4

Argentina 0 – 0 Japan

Anyone who thinks a 0-0 game can’t be thrilling should be lucky enough to be in the stadium for a game like this. From the opening few minutes until the final whistle, this was full of tension, waves of action, and moments to set your heart racing.

It was also an exceptional team defensive performance, with Argentina putting on a clinic in how to frustrate a possession-oriented team without ever having to resort to the Dark Arts. They hardly committed a foul in the game – in fact it was Japan that was far more likely to commit serious infractions, with Argentina’s Estefania Banini drawing several bookings from the normally restrained Japanese players.

And while this was a defensive approach from Argentina, don’t let anyone tell you that it was a ‘bunker’ or that they ‘parked the bus.’ There is an important difference between those things. The problem with bunkering is that you effectively subject yourself to constant pressure, with very little in the way of failsafes. What Argentina did was far more refined and impressive. They set a solid block, but also continually sending players at the top of the block forward to harass Japan as they attempted to probe the Argentinian defense.

It was a wonderfully controlled performance, one which put enough pressure on Japan to significantly restrain their attacking creativity, without exhausting themselves in the process by consistently chasing the ball. It takes a degree of precision to strike that balance – one that is certainly possible for a club team that trains together every week, but is rare among national teams and virtually unheard of in national teams with the level of resources provided to Argentina.

The heart and soul of the operation was Lorena Benítez, a 20 year old futsal player (!), who only joined the team in March (!!). This was just her fourth time playing for Argentina, but she turned in one of the great performances from any player in the whole tournament. As defensive midfielder, she shepherded play, tracked runs, and covered an almost impossible amount of territory. Watching from high above, it genuinely seemed like she was everywhere. Each time a potentially dangerous attack from Japan was snuffed out, she was there. And as the game progressed, she ranged further and further forward, applying pressure in much more advanced zones.

It would also be impossible to let the game go by without talking about Estefania Banini, who ranged all across the field, providing crucial relief for Argentina by holding possession and disrupting Japan’s efforts to build any serious rhythm. And as the second half went on, and Argentina seemed to grow more comfortable, Banini was a whirling dervish, helping to guide several counterattacks.

For Japan, this was very much a game to forget. They may seriously regret the points they dropped here, but the reality is that things haven’t really changed that much for them. Beat Scotland and they’ll likely finish second in the group. Beat England and Scotland, and they’ll finish first. That was true before this and it’s still true. The question is whether this was a one-off case of nerves, or whether it’s a sign of deeper malaise in the team. My bet is that they sort things out and emerge fine, but it’s certainly something to watch out for.

Canada 1 – 0 Cameroon

This was a peculiar game. In my pre-match writeup over at Stars and Stripes FC, I said that it was a clash between styles, with Canada wanting a tight game and Cameroon wanting an open one. And I suggested that whoever controlled the tempo would therefore have an advantage. The first half was frantic and chaotic, much like Cameroon would have wanted. Except it didn’t produce the goals we might have expected. The one and only tally came on a corner, and all the other chances just fizzled away.

Then, goal in hand, Canada came out in the second half to completely shut up shop. And they pretty much succeeded. The result was a narrow 1-0 that felt like a pretty wide margin by the end, as it seemed less and less possible that Cameroon would be able to get a grip on the game.

On a day when Japan – a team fairly similar to Canada in terms of expectations and ability – failed to get a result against an inferior team, getting the three points probably counts as a major success. But Canada really had no business letting it be as close as it was.

Those two perspectives are going to define this team over the coming weeks. And, as I said on twitter earlier today, as unpopular as it is, this conservative, stifling approach to the game may end up serving Canada very well. It doesn’t produce many goals, but it keeps games close. When they come up against The Netherlands, we’ll get to see whether that tradeoff is worth it.

Notes

– Check out my post over at Stars and Stripes FC about what to watch for in the US – Thailand game tomorrow. The US is going to win, but the way it plays out is still potentially pretty important.

– I also wrote up the discussion post at SSFC for today’s games as well.

– I was thrilled to see the level of support in the Parc des Princes today for Argentina – Japan. 25,000 is well below capacity, but is still a huge crowd, and they were into the game. I’ve got more thoughts on that subject, but you’ll have to wait for the next 123rd Minute episode to drop (look for it tomorrow) to hear them.

Tomorrow’s action

  • New Zealand – Netherlands. Another game with a clear favorite, but one where the underdog has a very real chance to find a result. New Zealand could lose this game 5-0 or could scrape a 1-1 draw. I’ll be particular curious to see if Vivenne Miedema (my pick for the golden boot) can get off to the races.
  • Chile – Sweden. Sweden should have enough to stifle Chile, and enough firepower to slice through their defense. But Chile have a top-class goalkeeper, and we’ve already seen what a disciplined squad can do against superior opposition. I’d certainly bet on Sweden here to win comfortably, but it’s no sure thing.
  • USA v. Thailand. See my post at SSFC.

The Scouting Report: A Reality Slap of Truth

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The TSR hosts talk about the rosters for the upcoming games between the USWNT and the CanWNT. They answer questions like “Does the formation even matter when Carli Lloyd checks in?” “Who will start in goal for the USWNT?” and “What Perth Glory player should the USWNT call up sooner rather than later?”.

Where to find the hosts on Twitter: 
RJ Allen
Lindsay Schwarz
Becca Kimble
The Scouting Report

Thank you for playing The Scouting Report.

Around the World of WoSo: W-League Finals; Trio of Canadians Retire

Perth Glory Takes Care of Business:

All season Perth has been entertaining to watch but they didn’t hold back one bit, putting five past Sydney FC this weekend to advance to the Finals.  Even though Sydney scored first thanks to Kyah Simon, Perth controlled the rest of the game after that. Big time players were making big time plays, including American Vanessa DiBernardo who scored the opening goal on a penalty kick in the 28th minute.

The first half ended in a draw but Perth was out for Glory in the second. DiBernardo was at it again; this time her deflected cross found the back of the net for the lead in the 58th minute. Sydney was having trouble containing DiBernardo and she was running free and managed to complete her hat-trick in the 77th minute. It was a wonderful display of power and precision all afternoon to guide her team to a win. Two more goals were scored by Rosie Sutton and Shawn Billam in the last 15 minutes of play.

Sydney was clearly no match for DiBernardo and company, who will meet Melbourne City in the Grand Final on Sunday in Perth.

Melbourne City Back in Final:

A solid Melbourne defense against a terrific attack in Canberra United – that’s what was in store for fans who were tuned in to watch the second W-League semifinal on Sunday. It was a similar scene for both teams, who competed in last years’ semifinals, with City moving on while Canberra lost to Sydney. Now Melbourne is in the finals for the second time in as many seasons.

It was a match that needed extra time; City got a goal in the 107th minute from the tiny dragon herself, Jess Fishlock. A poor clearance off a corner gave her the golden opportunity and she didn’t waste it – driving it home for the game-winner. Melbourne managed to hold off golden boot winner Ashleigh Sykes and that powerful offense for 122 minutes. It was an impressive feat considering Canberra were held scoreless just one time in the last 12 games by Sydney Wanderers in week 11.

 

NWSL Historic TV deal:

The National Womens Soccer League has reached new heights in 2017. A new deal has been agreed to, but not just any deal; a historic TV one. This is the first multi-year deal for the league, with NWSL partnering with A+E for three years. Other details include creating NWSL Media – which will be a league app for streaming, and a re-designed website with A+E managing all digital assets.

This is a massive upgrade for everyone involved and an encouraging partnership with A+E/Lifetime, who reach 81% of homes in America. There will be a game of the week every Saturday afternoon on Lifetime, as well as playoffs and the championship. That’s 22 games on TV, and for everyone that spent the last 4 years watching their favorite teams on an unreliable YouTube Stream, this is certainly exciting.

Canada (Finally) Celebrates Olympic Bronze:

Back in the summer of 2016, Canada beat Brazil to claim a Bronze medal, becoming the first Canadian summer Olympic team to go back-to-back in over a century. To celebrate they played a friendly against Mexico this past weekend at BC Place in Vancouver, Canada. With 22,508 fans in attendance, both teams put on a show.

Canada struck first in 14th minute when Deanne Rose had the confidence to go at the backline of Mexico, eventually finishing with her left. But just two minutes later Mexico were level, thanks to a neat strike from Nancy Antonio. Young talent Janine Beckie scored the final two goals for Canada just before halftime, giving them a two-goal lead. Mexico would fight back and add another goal in the 59th minute when Kaitlyn Johnson found herself wide open on the back post to tuck it in. That would be all the goals needed to finish this one as Canada gave the fans plenty more to cheer about on the day.

It was a game that was much overdue but I’m glad the players got the chance to celebrate with the fans.

Canadian Trio Retire:

Three players who have helped shape the Canadian program into a top 10 team have announced their International retirements and were honored this past weekend. For more than a decade, Rhian Wilkinson, Melissa Tancredi, and Marie-Eve Nault were tremendous players for Canada, playing in a combined 375 games at the senior level.

Wilkinson played in 180 games, (first appearing in 2003) scoring seven goals as a strong defender. She played in three Pan American games (2003, 2007, 2011), and two Olympic games in 2012 and 2016; capturing Bronze in both.

Melissa Tancredi was known for her physical play and she gave her all in every one of her 124 appearances for her country. She debuted in 2004 against Jamaica during Olympic Qualifying. She was a constant threat up top, scoring 27 goals in her career for Canada. Tancredi played in the Pan American games in 2007 and was part of the 2012/2016 that won Olympic Bronze.

Marie-Eve Nault first appeared in January of 2004 and was a steady defender for Canada. She earned 71 caps and played in some of the biggest games in Canadian history, including the Four Nations Tournament (2004), the 2011 FIFA Womens World Cup, and the 2012 Olympics (Bronze).

Jakobsson Tears ACL:

Sofia Jakobsson suffered one of the worst injuries in sports, tearing her left Anterior Cruciate Ligament – simply referred to as the ACL. The Swedish forward who currently plays for Montpellier in the French Division 1 Feminine was at a training session during the injury on Feb. 1. The 26-year-old has appeared in 61 games for Sweden, scoring 11 goals in that span.

Jakobsson debuted for Sweden in 2011, appearing in the World Cup that summer. She also played in the 2012 London Olympic Games, UEFA Womens EURO in 2013, the 2015 Algarve Cup, and most recently the 2016 Olympic Games, winning the silver. She has become an important piece to Sweden remaining a top 10 team.

No word yet on her timetable to return but typically with this type of injury, athletes are expected to be out minimum six months. With this heartbreaking news, Jakobsson will miss out on EURO 2017 with Sweden.

Canada Looking for Their First Trip to the Final

If a month ago I was told that a CONCACAF team swept their group, won their quarterfinal match-up against France, and looked like they had a fire lit under them heading into the Olympic semifinal, I would have grinned in glee, thinking it was the United States.

Well, we all know how that turned out.

Their Road to the Semis

Canada got off to a blazing start, their first goal coming less than 60 seconds into their first match against Australia. Sinclair added a second goal in the 80th minute on a bizarre move from Australian goalkeeper Lydia Williams, who came nearly to midfield after the ball. Sinclair was able to get around her and get the ball into the back of the net. Beckie added two more goals in the next game against Zimbabwe, while Sinclair added another for herself. Against Germany, Melissa Tancredi added two goals to edge out Germany 2-1.

In the quarterfinals, Canada faced off against France. They had actually lost to France 0-1 in a friendly during their preparations for Rio. Though, to be fair, both sides used a modified starting XI in that game.

Who Got Them There

Pulling out a few names from the Canada 18 to highlight feels a bit like a disservice to the team as a whole. They have relied on everyone to get where they are.

Canada did what Jill Ellis was trying to do for the United States. They integrated a lot of young players successfully, kept a lot of great vets, and revamped their offense. Herdman started earlier than Ellis to give the team time to grow together.

But I think it’s fair to say that Canada wouldn’t be where they are if not for Stephanie Labbé, Sophie Schmidt, Melissa Tancredi, Janine Beckie, Sophie Schmidt, and Captain Canada, aka Christine Sinclair.

Sinclair, Schmidt, Beckie, and Tancredi have the only goals for the team so far, but the whole team is working together as well as we have seen them.

Road to Gold

If Canada wants a gold in Rio, they are going to have to get past Germany. While they did beat Germany in the group stage, there is no telling how the Germans will play.

They have players like Dzsenifer Marozsán and Alexandra Popp who can put the ball in the back of the next with amazing skill and in tight spaces. Almuth Schult might not be Nadine Angerer, but she can be a very solid goalkeeper.

Canada is taking a hit in their own 18. Josée Bélanger is suspended for the match, while Allysha Chapman has a hurt shoulder and is questionable for the match. This will handicap the Canadians some, but we’ll see just how much during the game.

And if they do get past Germany and make it to their first Olympic final?

Likely Brazil will be waiting for them. Not at all an easy team to beat in front of their home fans.