Tag: MVP

Route Two Soccer: My 2018 NWSL awards ballot

Posted on by RJ Allen

It’s time for some end of the year votes. Here’s my take on who should win the big awards.

MVP

  1. Crystal Dunn
  2. Lindsey Horan
  3. McCall Zerboni
  4. Megan Rapinoe
  5. Sam Kerr

It’s the most wide-open field the league has ever seen this year. To my eyes, there are a half dozen serious candidates, with plenty of others where you could make a plausible case. That’s a reflection of the depth in the league, as well as the fact that a lot of potential candidates ended up missing time. I predict that Kerr will win—the Golden Boot winner has never failed to win the MVP, after all—and won’t really be upset if it happens. Despite missing a quarter of the season, she really is just that good.

Still, I have her toward the bottom of my shortlist, behind some players that I think provided a bit more all-around value. Dunn faded a bit in the back half of the season, dropping from ‘impossibly great’ to ‘very good,’ but I’m going to stick with her as my MVP. Compare this year’s NC to last year, and you can see the difference that Dunn makes. Without her, they were a powerful, dominant team—one of the best in the league. With her, they were superhuman, producing the best season that any team has ever managed in the NWSL, arguably the best single season from a women’s professional soccer team…like, ever.

Meanwhile, Lindsey Horan excels at literally everything, making her the linchpin of Portland’s attack and defense. McCall Zerboni does the dirty work that helps make North Carolina so unplayable, while also contributing plenty to the attack. Rapinoe might have been my #1 pick if she’d been able to play the whole season. When she’s at full strength, she’s the most impactful player in the league. It’s truly astonishing how much she’s been able to expand her game. So that’s five excellent choices, and it would be wonderful to see any of them win.

Rookie of the Year

  1. Linda Motlhalo
  2. Savannah McCaskill
  3. Imani Dorsey

This was not a strong year for rookies, to put it mildly. That’s partly a function of league contraction, which left far fewer opportunities than usual. It’s also a function of some big name rookies simply having down years. Andi Sullivan, for example, was a consensus #1 pick, one of the biggest talents to emerge from college in recent years. And she may yet come good, maybe as soon as next year. But at the moment, the performances haven’t been there.

By comparison, Linda Motlhalo was no one’s tip for the award back in March, but ended up lapping the field by a huge margin. She’s nowhere close to a star, and had plenty of bad moments, especially at the start of the season. But she played almost 2000 minutes, playing a critical role in binding together the surprisingly solid Houston midfield all year. And there’s a lot of value in simply showing up and being average. When you compare that to the rest of the rookie class, it becomes even more clear.

I have McCaskill second, despite more than a few anonymous performances over the season. It wasn’t the year we were all hoping for, but she provided some real drive in the Sky Blue attack that often sputtered without her. The same goes for Dorsey, whose arrival midway through the season gave the New Jersey side pace and precision they desperately needed. You could also put Veronica Latsko in the mix, who made a similar sort of impact in limited minutes for the Dash.

Goalkeeper of the Year

  1. Lydia Williams
  2. Adrianna Franch
  3. ????

The only real question here is Williams vs. Franch. I have no idea who belongs in third place, but I know they’re a country mile behind these top two. I went with Williams, who I think played a huge role in organizing that wonderful Seattle defense, but would have no problem with someone choosing Franch. Even with both missing significant time, I think the top two slots are locked down pretty easily here.

If you forced me to pick a #3, I guess I’d go with Alyssa Naeher, whose worrying loss of form compared to her peak of a couple years ago continued in 2018. But even with the occasional mishap, she’s still a solid keeper who turned in a decent year. I did consider Aubrey Bledsoe, but I just see too many mistakes there. She had a good season, and deserves credit for breaking the saves record. But that’s mostly a function of her defense letting in a ton of shots.

Defender of the Year

  1. Abby Erceg
  2. Jaelene Hinkle
  3. Becky Sauerbrunn

It’s always hard to know what to do with individual North Carolina players. Given how stacked the whole team is, it’s going to be easier for every specific player to shine. So I’m open to persuasion here. But Erceg was absolutely immense this year, doing plenty to maximize the value of their system: ranging into space to close down plays before they became dangerous, holding off one-on-one challenges, and winning tons of aerial challenges. Just a rock solid year from top to bottom.

Hinkle, meanwhile, was less impressive defensively—though she had a pretty good year there, too—but was outrageously good in the attack. She had the best year from a fullback by leaps and bounds, contributing more key passes than the best creative midfielders. This is not an exaggeration. She literally had more key passes than the best attacking players in the league. Look it up.

I seriously considering going with Megan Oyster as my third pick. She had a wonderful year for Seattle, but I ultimately had to trust my gut, which tells me that Sauerbrunn remains the most intelligent center back in the world. She’s not as dominant in close-quarters defending as she once was, but her anticipation of play is out of this world. And that’s the difference maker for me.

Once again, Emily Menges had a fantastic season, but just missed too much time. If she’d been able to play in 4-5 more games, I’d have her on this list.

Coach of the Year

  1. Paul Riley
  2. Vera Pauw
  3. Vlatko Andonovski

We’re blessed with tons of great choices here. In the end, though, you just can’t argue with what Paul Riley has done with the Courage. It’s the most cohesive and complete team ever assembled in US professional soccer, with every position contributing to the whole. Sure, they’ve got tons of great players. But he deserves a ton of credit for getting the most out of that roster, and helping players like Zerboni, Hinkle, and Lynn Williams develop from solid contributors into world-class talents.

Then there’s Pauw, who took a team that everyone (myself included) had pegged for last place, and kept them in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. If I sometimes had a hard time understanding why it was working, that might only makes it feel more impressive. I picked Riley at #1, in part because of the culture he’s built over the years. But given the situation in Houston at the start of the season, I’m not sure anyone had a more impressive spring and summer than Pauw.

Finally, Vlatko Andonovski. Seattle looked so good right from the start of the season—and maintained that quality over the whole year—that it became easy to take them for granted. But it’s truly remarkable how seamlessly he was able to step in, right the ship, and produce an absurdly good defensive unit despite an endless parade of injuries and absences.

Team of the Season

Megan Rapinoe – Sam Ker – Rachel Daly

Lindsey Horan – McCall Zerboni – Crystal Dunn

Jaelene Hinkle – Abby Erceg – Becky Sauerbrunn – Theresa Nielsen

Lydia Williams

The toughest call here was my third forward. I went with Rachel Daly, who was a massive difference maker for a Houston team that sometimes struggled to create chances and needed her to be great. But any of the forwards on my Second XI could easily have fit in here.

Second XI

Yuki Nagasoto – Lynn Williams – Tobin Heath

Christine Sinclair – Allie Long – Sophia Huerta

Steph Catley – Megan Oyster – Emily Menges – Arin Gilliland

Adrianna Franch

It was a weak year for fullbacks. Catley was a clear step below her performances in some previous years, while Gilliland blew very hot and cold. But both did enough for me to take them. I almost went with Caprice Dydasco, who had a very nice season in the midst of the mess that was the Spirit season. In the midfield, I thought long and hard about Dani Colaprico, who had another great Colaprico season, and the other NC midfielders, who all could easily have made the list. But ultimately I thought that Long’s contributions as the solid holding player in that Seattle midfield were more significant. I also originally had Amber Brooks as my final center back, but decided that Menges was so good in her limited time that it was enough to overcome a great year from Brooks by a hair.

Finally, I want to note a few players who were outstanding in limited minutes, but simply didn’t play enough to merit consideration on these lists. First is Mallory Pugh, who was the best player in the league for the first 5-6 weeks, but was clearly not at the same level when she returned.

Second, Vanessa DiBernardo, whose return was instrumental in turning Chicago from an underperforming group into a devastatingly effective team.

Third, Sam Mewis, who never seemed to get out of second gear, but still contributed a ton of value in limited time.

Finally, Julie Ertz, whose ability to be one of the best players in the league at multiple positions gave her team some critical flexibility when it came to make trades and re-arranging their options.

Backline Chat: Playoffs, Referees, MVPs, and More on Sky Blue

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Hi everyone, and welcome to this week’s Backline chat. It’s been an exciting weekend in the NWSL, so let’s start by discussing the playoff race. I think the general consensus has the current top four (NC, Seattle, Portland, and Chicago) as the most likely to make it in the end. Anyone care to disagree with that?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): If Houston can win against Seattle, they would be 4th. I would like peak madness to happen even if I don’t know if they can pull it off. On the other hand, half of Seattle is on the injured reserve this match.

Allison Cary (@findingallison):  I think Chicago is questionable. I’m with RJ, peak madness is fun. I think Houston and Utah are fun.

RJ Allen: If Kerr is scoring you two, you should be able to hold for a win.

Charles Olney: I will disagree that Utah is fun, though I do like them hanging out in the race even in spite of their relatively dire style of play.

Allison Cary: I meant fun in the sense of them sticking around, less so how they play on the field.

Becky Schoenecker(@Beckster20): I’m all for the madness and I’m rooting hard for Houston and for New Jersey to finish the year with some wins.

RJ Allen: I know this might sound cynical but Sky Blue finishing with 0 wins might be better for them long term than finishing with 1 or 2. And by better I mean a better chance they are sold or they are disbanded and the players can go to places with showers.

Becky Schoenecker: My heart just needs one though.

Charles Olney: I haven’t been able to get up to Houston much this year, but I’ll be there next weekend for the match against Sky Blue. Depending on what happens between now and then, it could be an incredibly tense game, or not so much.

Becky Schoenecker: Also, that one win can’t happen against Houston, my heart would not be able to take that.

Charles Olney: If results go against them, Houston could effectively be out by the time that game happens. If results go in their favor, they could be playing to occupy a playoff position going into the final week. Given what we all said about them going into the season, that’s truly astounding.

Allison Cary: It’s impressive.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): I think Orlando can win its last two and back in, but boy do I have my doubts. If the Dash make it in, I’ll be in shock. I don’t believe in the Red Stars.

Allison Cary: I have no faith in Orlando’s season.

Becky Schoenecker: I’m with Allison I think Orlando are out.

RJ Allen: I don’t think Orlando will win both of their last two and they need to.

Charles Olney: I lean toward thinking that Orlando still has a decent shot, ironically because I’ve rated them a bit worse than most people all season. Which means I don’t see this recent run of results as especially damning, and think it’s still quite plausible they come out strong to close things out.

I’m not predicting they make the playoffs, to be clear, but I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if they did.

Luis Hernandez: I’m questioning (Orlando) the players’ mental fortitude and resistance.

RJ Allen: I’m questioning the tactics and the player selection.

Allison Cary: I’m questioning all of it.

Becky Schoenecker: If they do make the playoffs – which I don’t think they will – they’d be out first round in my opinion

Charles Olney: What could they do to turn things around? Or is it just a lost cause at this point?

Luis Hernandez: As far as player selection, what exactly do people want to see? I never understood that point. Okay bring on Poliana??

RJ Allen: I have a warm take. I won’t call it hot, but warm.

Orlando is spending too much on Marta. They are paying her max which means she is draining the cap.

Becky Schoenecker: I don’t think Marta’s the problem.

RJ Allen: Marta ISN’T the problem. Marta’s pay is.

Becky Schoenecker: But they’ve still been able to field well above average players. Where would you spend her money if you could?

RJ Allen: They need four starting level defenders and help in the midfield. They need that more than they need Sydney, Morgan and Marta.

Luis Hernandez: I think you have a valid point but a bigger issue is talent identification and scouting.

RJ Allen: Sure, but her pay means that is handcuffed.

Charles Olney: I don’t know if I agree with RJ on the whole take, but I do agree that their defense is a lot more suspect than it might seem by looking at the names. I’d love for them to have a bit more flexibility there. I’d also point out that their midfield has never been one of the stronger, and while they’ve managed to shore up (and play around) that weakness to some degree, it’s still a weakness.

RJ Allen: I really think the NWSL needs to change the pay structure. Marta’s salary means they can’t upgrade some players as easily as other teams can. I’m not saying it’s the only reason or the main one. But I do think it is a big factor.

Becky Schoenecker: I would blame it on tactics then.

Luis Hernandez: I can point out Kennedy’s regression and inconsistent play more than Marta’s salary. Or EvE’s face on a milk carton all season long

RJ Allen: That’s on the HC then for keeping them on the roster.

Charles Olney: I guess my ultimate feeling about Orlando is: I don’t think they’re wildly underperforming. I had them 5th (but very close to 4th) going into the season, and that’s right about where they are. I think the issue is that they’re more hot/cold than some of the other teams. When they play well, they blow the doors off. When they play poorly, they’re quite depressing. With a different coach, different structure, they might well play more consistent, but I’m not certain they’d be better.

Luis Hernandez: I have to defend Sermanni’s tactics because when the players follow the plan they play well. They just haven’t put in a full 90 which fine you can blame Tom for that.

RJ Allen: I think Orlando plays some of the worse looking soccer in the league and that’s a mix of players and coaching. They don’t have a really strong flow about them.

Luis Hernandez: I believe the Pride roster is going to get blown up after the season anyway

RJ Allen: Head coaching change and a new roster would do the team wonders.

Luis Hernandez: I hope the coach doesn’t change but I also think after the season anything can happen.

Becky Schoenecker: Tom to Washington? haha

RJ Allen: I do not think Sermanni is a great coach. He is fine, but he isn’t great.

Charles Olney: I’d love to see Sermanni at Washington, FWIW.

Becky Schoenecker: I think he can get teams started.

RJ Allen: He would be good in a Washington or even a Sky Blue.

Luis Hernandez: Tom in Washington would be very interesting

RJ Allen: I think GM/HC needs to be more strongly defined in this league. And that is something that would help a lot.

 

Charles Olney: Alright, we’ve spent a lot of time talking about the playoff teams, but very little about North Carolina, probably because there’s nothing really new to say there. Their season has been astonishing, and there’s no doubt they’re the best team in the league. But we all know that the playoffs can be a crapshoot and (famously) the Shield winner has never actually taken home the title. So: if I gave you even odds would you bet North Carolina or the field?

Luis Hernandez: The Courage for me. I love the killer instinct

Becky Schoenecker: I’d bet North Carolina.

Allison Cary: I bet on the Courage.

RJ Allen: I think the match up is important.

Portland: 60/40

Seattle 70/30

Chicago: 80/20

Orlando: 90/10

All in North Carolina’s favor.

Becky Schoenecker: RJ what about Houston?

RJ Allen: lol

Charles Olney: #TeamOfDestiny #DashTFOn

Becky Schoenecker: #DashTFOn

Charles Olney: I have to say, much as I love this Carolina team, I think I’ll still bet the field. We’ve seen Chicago play them very close in two games recently. And even Orlando was giving them real trouble this weekend until the wheels came off. And we all remember what happened when the rubber hit the road in the final last year.

RJ Allen: I think this NC team remembers the pain of last year.

Becky Schoenecker: I still think when it matters they’re going to win in commanding fashion.

Charles Olney: Even if they’re 2 to 1 favorites in both matches, that’s still under 50% chance of actually winning.

Luis Hernandez: There’s a blueprint to beat N.C. Doing it is a separate story

RJ Allen: I think you could make a super team out of the other 8 teams in the league and NC still wins.

Allison Cary: I would tentatively agree with that.

RJ Allen: It’s going to be a shame when expansion comes and strips half their players.

 

Charles Olney: Dialing into the games a little bit, it was a pretty exciting weekend with plenty of talking points across the league, with referees featuring a number of times. Any in particular that people want to discuss?

Luis Hernandez: Sky Blue! I really thought they could win this week.

RJ Allen: I’m sorry Sky Blue fans, from what I saw the ref did nothing wrong giving 3:50ish in stoppage and not stopping at 3 minutes on the dot.

Charles Olney: The level of anger about that one really surprised me. I understand why people were frustrated – for the sake of Sky Blue who really deserved a win there – but there is just no there there in this controversy. Three minutes just means a minimum of three. If the ref felt like there should be 3.5 minutes, he’d signal 3 and stop it whenever (in his judgment) full time was up. This is bog standard stuff.

Now, as I tweeted on Saturday night, I find the stoppage time process overall to be dumb and far too reliant on ill-defined norms. But it is the process. So I’d happily join a general complaint against the whole approach, but there was nothing wrong in this instance.

RJ Allen: I have no real issue with stoppage time.

Charles Olney: It’s very low on my list of changes. So I’ll spend my capital elsewhere, for sure.

Luis Hernandez: Agreed

Charles Olney: Okay, any thoughts on the calls (or non-calls) in Portland? Do we think Chicago’s anger about either goal scored against them is justified?

Becky Schoenecker: I have a semi cool story related to that. Yesterday, after our women’s college match I was talking to the refs about the NWSL and the calls. The second I mentioned the league he goes oh that call against Chicago that wasn’t called? He watched the broadcast on ESPN news and from the sound of it a lot of higher up referees are. Just a fun little tidbit.

RJ Allen: I think Portland manages to get a lot of non calls that go their way.

Luis Hernandez: Especially at home.

Charles Olney: I wouldn’t be confident saying that they get better treatment than the average team, but anecdotally lots of people feel that way. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if they were on balance benefactors of refereeing calls.

Luis Hernandez: The ref bias out of Portland is head-shaking. It just stands out so much. How do you explain it? The way the Thorns play, you should be whistled more than that.

Charles Olney: In this game, I don’t really think Chicago were correct about either complaint, in the sense that the goals should CLEARLY have been disallowed. But you see stuff like that called plenty, so it wouldn’t have been out of line if things had gone that way. And I can understand frustration at losing a bunch of 60/40 calls.

In terms of physicality, I think y’all know my feelings there. I wouldn’t call that favoritism, but more that the Thorns are exploiting a general problem. Utah is the same way. Both play extremely aggressive (far beyond the bounds of what I’d call acceptable), but mostly get away with it.

Allison Cary: Yeah, agree with that 100%.

Luis Hernandez: Someone should explain persistent infringement to the referees.

Charles Olney: Ironically, for all that North Carolina are possibly the most physically intense team in the league, I don’t really see them as villains on this front. At least not this year.

Luis Hernandez: I think the Courage have been less just bull in a china shop physical

RJ Allen: I am as much a fan of brutal soccer as anyone. But I am starting to really move toward the league is going to end up really hurting someone. Like not an ACL but a spine.

Luis Hernandez: NWSL Fight Club.

 

Charles Olney: Alright, another topic I wanted to bring up is the MVP race. Obviously, this depends to some extent on what happens over the final week. But I have to say that I’m thrilled with just how wide open things are.

I think you could make a serious case for at least these players: Kerr, Rapinoe, Dunn, Zerboni, Horan, Sinclair, and maybe Sauerbrunn or Erceg. I’m not saying *I’d* vote for all them, but I can see a reasonable case.

RJ Allen: Corsie over Sauerbrunn, I’m sorry but it’s true. Corsie hasn’t missed the time Sauerbrunn has and IMO has been as solid on the field when they are together.

Luis Hernandez: If the MVP comes from a non-playoff team I’d be shocked. No playoffs no MVP award.

RJ Allen: Zerboni has been my MVP since about week 9 and I haven’t changed on that.

Charles Olney: I’ve been similarly locked into Dunn, but while she’s remained quite good (as has Zerboni) I think a bunch of the folks who were below them most of the season have really kicked into gear.

RJ Allen: North Carolina isn’t 100 points ahead of everyone else if not for Zerboni.

Luis Hernandez: Just check the golden boot standings and you’ll get your MVP winner

Charles Olney: On that point, one name I didn’t bring up among the favorites is Lynn Williams. But per Luis’s point, she might well win the Golden Boot. If she does, do people think she’ll continue the trend of the MVP and Golden Boot being identical awards? Or could this be the year they’re finally severed?

RJ Allen: I think if Williams wins Golden Boot she’ll be the MVP. Same with Kerr.

Luis Hernandez: If Kerr were to win the golden boot, you’d have to believe the Red Stars are in the playoffs

RJ Allen: I think Kerr can win the Golden Boot and they still are 5th. But it would be hard.

Charles Olney: I’d like to believe that people could see their way to breaking the connection with Williams. But I generally agree if Kerr does win the Boot, it’ll be because she scored enough that Chicago made the playoffs. And she’d also have done enough to deserve the MVP regardless. In fact, that might be where I’d bet at this point.

RJ Allen: I think 2017 might still be on people’s minds. She has been very good this year but not 2017 Kerr.

Charles Olney: Sam Kerr is very good.

RJ Allen: Sam Kerr is very good.

Luis Hernandez: I’m going to say the unpopular thought but I think Horan should be MVP

 

Charles Olney: Alright, one final topic: the situation at Sky Blue. We’ve talked about their problems a few times here, but Cloud 9 just put out a statement confirming that the promised changes haven’t materialized, and that there doesn’t seem to be any indications of progress. Thoughts about where this stands at the moment? Does anyone have any faith that Sky Blue can survive in its current form?

RJ Allen: I know a few of the Cloud 9 people and they care about their club, the league and women’s soccer as much as anyone I know. They are good people and reading the statement I can only imagine how difficult it might be. But I think they said what needs to be said in a way that is very honest and in the end I think they are right. The league needs more than part time GM’s and part time staff. Sky Blue promised to change and they have not.

Luis Hernandez: I’m going to hope Sky Blue uses the off-season to right the ship with better improvements. It’s hard to find a better practice field right at the end of the season

RJ Allen: I think the only way it gets “righted” is a sale and move a la Western New York or the Boston route. The ground needs to be salted.

Charles Olney: I would really like that to not be true, but I’m increasingly finding it hard to see any other alternative.

Luis Hernandez: I think things went passed the point of no return but I’m still hoping Sky Blue can fix thing by the start of next season. Don’t mean to talk out of both sides of my mouth here.

Charles Olney: Sky Blue were barely able to meet standards at the beginning of the league when expectations were much lower. What they provide has never been acceptable but at least you could squint and say that it was necessary. It no longer feels necessary. If they can’t make big improvements (and I don’t think they can) that may be the end of the road.

RJ Allen: I think it’s alright to be sad about this. Mourning the history and the jobs and team lost. But I do think if the league wants to make it, it has to grow and that includes higher standards. The NWSL should have higher standards than nearly everything Sky Blue has done.

Luis Hernandez: I’m curious how much better off things are in Seattle. Is it safe to say that the Reign are next after Sky Blue?

RJ Allen: No.

Luis Hernandez: Then who is the team above Sky Blue in this department?

RJ Allen: I think they are apples and oranges. I don’t think it’s that kind of scale. It’s not nearly that easy.

Luis Hernandez: It is a scale; meet the standards as they rise.

Charles Olney: Seattle have some serious issues, but in their case it’s a matter of finding ways to thread the needle. It absolutely can be done, and they’re working on it. Maybe they’re the team that’s ‘next after Sky Blue’ but only because someone has to be next. I don’t think it’s even in the same ballpark.

RJ Allen: I agree with Charles.

Charles Olney: The stadium issue obviously has to get fixed, and if they can’t figure out an answer, they’ll have to leave. But I have much much more faith in their ability to get a satisfactory answer than I have faith in Sky Blue resolving they’re many problems.

Allison Cary: I have very little knowledge of what’s going on in Seattle, but I would agree with Charles. It seems like Sky Blue and Seattle aren’t even close in terms of problems.

RJ Allen: Seattle’s big issues are 1) Finding a better home field and 2) Keeping some staff in like the media departments for more than a year at a time. That is like one-tenth of the Sky Blue list.

Luis Hernandez: For sure.

 

RJ Allen: How many NWSL teams do we have opening day of 2019?

Luis Hernandez: An even number.

Becky Schoenecker: It’d be nice to have 10

Allison Cary: 10 would be nice.

Luis Hernandez: 12 would be crazy

Allison Cary:I don’t see things staying the same no matter what.

Becky Schoenecker: I would LOVE 12.

Luis Hernandez: Expansion draft for 2019 for sure. In a Wold Cup year.

Charles Olney: Reading the tea leaves, I don’t see any of the usual suspects that seems like they’ll be ready to enter in 2019. And if we think Sky Blue might not be long for this world, it’s really hard to see them finding two franchises. I’m not saying that it won’t happen, but I’m a lot less certain that it’ll be 10 than I was a few months ago.

Luis Hernandez: 8?

RJ Allen: That is my guess.

Becky Schoenecker: I really hope it isn’t 8 that would be concerning and I don’t feel like the NWSL is in a place of concern, but growth (or change).

Luis Hernandez: That would just be a down ending

RJ Allen: I think 8 would be fine for a year to get the house in order. Growth without stability is an issue.

Charles Olney: I don’t think eight would be a real problem. But I agree the optics wouldn’t be great. Still, I’d rather have eight solid franchises than struggle to make 10.

Allison Cary: I agree. Hopefully not long-term obviously, but stability should be key.