Tag: Netherlands

USA v. Netherlands: Four Questions for the Final

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The big one is finally here. The United States enter this match on an 11-game winning streak in the competition, which goes all the way back to the group stage in 2015. One more win here and they will win their fourth World Cup.

According to the bookies, that is overwhelmingly likely, with the US favored at around 80% to take home the title. I’m inclined to agree. But 80% isn’t 100%, so let’s talk through a couple of the key variables worth considering while we wait.

Will Megan Rapinoe and Rose Lavelle start?

Rapinoe was held back from the semifinal with a hamstring strain, while Lavelle had to be removed after an hour with the same injury. Both have been training in the run-up to the final, and are at least theoretically available. But will they be 100%? And if they’re anything less than that, will they start anyway?

In the case of Rapinoe, the US has a more-than-able backup in Christen Press. In fact, as I argued after the England match, Press is almost certainly a better option right now, even setting aside injury concerns. It would be hard to sit Rapinoe—who has been the biggest story of the tournament. But the reality is that, goals notwithstanding, she hasn’t actually played that well. And Press is in the best form of her life.

With Lavelle, there isn’t an obvious replacement, with no other players on the US roster really capable of creating the same way that she can (Crystal Dunn is the exception here, but that ship has long since sailed). However, it’s not clear that the US needs a player in Lavelle’s mold in this game. The more muscular and mobile trio of Ertz, Horan, and Mewis might be best-suited for throttling the Dutch midfield, and ensuring the US keeps a tight hold on the game.

In both cases, the US has a range of options. Even with no injury concerns, you could make a decent case for resting them both. And with the injuries, the argument gets stronger. But, in general, Jill Ellis has a preference for sticking with her best XI, so I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if both Rapinoe and Lavelle start.

Will the US play sloppy, and can the Dutch make them pay?

The US have won every game so far, but have also been pretty sloppy in the process. A mistake from Alyssa Naeher almost gifted Chile a goal. Some extremely questionable defending against Sweden could easily have conceded a goal. Spain, France, and England all had excellent chances to find an equalizer or winner in their knockout matches.

In every case, the US has had enough to hold off the opposition. But these have not been blowouts. They’ve generally been lucky that their defensive breakdowns have been relatively contained. A big part of that has been the oft-maligned Abby Dahlkemper, who is quietly having her best run of games in a national team kit. But the US have been playing with fire. And, at least in theory, this Dutch team has the potential to ruthlessly exploit the kind of gaps that the US has been allowing.

Will the 2017 Netherlands ever show up?   

In 2017, the Dutch were a revelation. They raced to a European title, obliterating every opponent that came their way. They were particularly devastating against teams that expected to control the game. Given space to work, the wide attackers were relentless. Opponents simply couldn’t cope with the quickness of play and repeatedly found themselves overwhelmed.

Over the next two years, though, the Dutch showed relatively little of that prowess. They struggled to qualify, having to go through the playoffs. And even here, with six wins out of six, they have never really turned up. They’ve made the final, which is a huge accomplishment, but compare the route the US have taken (Spain, France, England) to the Netherlands path (Japan, Italy, Sweden). The gap is enormous. And then remember that the Dutch were thoroughly outplayed by Japan and only managed to scrape through on a 2019 Handball Special.

Most of the problem has come from the frontline: Lieke Martens has been bad, and Shanice van de Sanden has been worse. Vivianne Miedema has done just enough to keep them going, but has only really had one excellent game (against Cameroon). The substitutes have played well in limited minutes, but shown little when given more of a chance to make their mark.

The midfield haven’t controlled games to the extent they would like, but have done enough to keep them in every match. The problem there is that Spitse, Van de Donk, and Groenen have played 1651 of a possible 1710 minutes over their first six games. They’ll need to get 100% performances from all three in this match, and it’s hard to see that happening under the hot midday sun, on no rest, at the end of a long tournament.

So on the evidence of the last month, this game should be a fairly easy win for the US. But we know what the Dutch are theoretically capable of producing. If they can put it all back together, this could be a lot tougher for the US than expected. I wouldn’t bet on it, but you certainly can’t rule it out entirely.

How do you mime eating a stroopwafel?

I certainly don’t know, but we’ll probably get to find out!

The Netherlands outlast Sweden, and earn the right to take on the United States in the World Cup final

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It wasn’t pretty, but they eventually got the job done. The Netherlands were favorites coming into the match and had just enough to make good on that promise. But those of us who were hoping for an expansive attacking experience had our dreams dashed pretty quickly. The opening half hour was pretty open, with both sides seeming quite willing to try the audacious pass when the chance presented itself. But neither were especially sharp, and after trading a pair of excellent chances in the opening quarter hour, things settled down into a match with a lot of back and forth through the middle of the pitch but not much happening near the goals.

As the match progressed, the ominous possibility of a 0-0 draw and penalties began to loom more and more heavily over the match. And yet…there were some very close calls along the way. It didn’t necessarily feel exciting, but a couple fingertip saves on both sides were necessary to keep things level. A few inches either way and several shots could have gone in, rather than ringing off the post.

But it wasn’t to be. And so extra time arrived. Something neither team would have wanted—given that the winner would need to play against the fittest and most athletic team in the world for the championship in a few days. But neither was willing to switch game plans to open things up, either.

The frustrating part of the game is that both sides actually did a lot of things very well. This wasn’t a situation of two teams both sitting deep and hoping to play on the counter. Both actually played somewhat expansively. Sweden pressed very aggressively for large portions of the game, routinely challenging the Dutch defense all the way back to their own box. And the Netherlands kept pushing high, hoping to hit balls over the press to find their array of attackers.

The result was a match with a lot of good individual performances—almost all happening in the defensive end—but very little variation or excitement. Sweden defended very well collectively, and made it extremely difficult for the Dutch to play. And none of the high quality Dutch attackers ever managed to do much to break the lines. On the other side, the Netherlands backline looked nothing like the porous unit that had struggled so much previously in the tournament. Especially the fullbacks. Van Dongen was immense, and Van Lunteren had the best game I’ve seen from her.

And so Sweden just couldn’t manage to get anything going. But not for lack of trying. Asllani was in constant movement, and tried every trick in her book. But she needed to find the perfect pass and it never came.

And so we mostly got stalemate. A dreary game. Not because they were awful, but because they weren’t good enough to overcome the other. Apart from one moment of magic, the Dutch looked like a limited team out of attacking ideas. But that one moment should serve as a reminder of what this team can actually do.

The Netherlands, after all, absolutely obliterated some excellent teams in the Euros two years ago. We haven’t seen any real evidence that this Dutch team has the energy or form to repeat those performances. But in these tiny glimpses, the quality does show. If they can bring that sort of fire for longer stretches on Sunday, they might just have enough to beat the US.

I wouldn’t bet on it though, especially after they just spent 120 minutes running this game out. And the US will have an extra day’s rest. But that’s why they play the game. So we’ll just have to wait and see!

The Orange Wave: A Breakdown of the Netherlands National Team

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If someone told you before the start of the 2015 Women’s World Cup that debutante Netherlands would get knocked out in the round of sixteen, but would rise through the ranks of global women’s soccer to a 2019 Women’s World Cup semi-final against Sweden would you have believed them?

Would you believe that along the way the Dutch, led by manager Sarina Wiegman, claimed the 2017 UEFA Women’s Euro? Or, due to how UEFA handles Olympic qualifications, the Netherlands also qualified for the 2020 Olympic soccer tournament?

Well, believe it or not, that’s exactly what the Netherlands has done.

The run to the semis began in group E for the Netherlands where the Dutch swept the three other teams: Canada, Cameroon, and New Zealand by a combined goal total of six to two. It won’t come as a surprise to anyone that the Dutch line up in a 4-3-3. The captain of the squad is Sari van Veenendaal, the 29 year-old former Arsenal goalkeeper, who continues to impress in major tournaments coming up big when it matters. In front of her, the first choice center back Dominique Bloodworth teams with either Stefanie van der Gragt or veteran defender, Anouk Dekker. It’s worth noting that the Netherlands have found some offensive production from this group as each center back has scored once in this tournament. 

Playing out wide as fullbacks are Desiree van Lunteren and Merel van Dongen who will attempt to join the attack with overlapping runs. While in the midfield the Orange will have Daniëlle van de Donk centrally, Sherida Spitse on the left, and Jackie Groenen on the right. In the recent run of matches, Spitse has contributed to the attack generating four assists so far; three of which have happened in the knockout stage. Other midfielders, such as Jill Roord, have come off the bench to contribute with the game winning goal in the group stage versus New Zealand. The true bite in the attack comes from the front line for the Netherlands.

There’s little doubt the starting front three will be Lieke Martens, Vivianne Miedema, and Shanice van de Sanden. The group has scored a combined total of five goals so far this tournament without a contribution from van de Sanden, so the attack still has some room to improve against Sweden. The tendency of this Netherlands team is to score goals late; in the five World Cup matches the Dutch have scored in the 80th minute or later in four of them. The team will not quit pressing the attack and seems to wear down their opposition.

The stage is set for the final four in the World Cup, and it’s almost unbelievable to consider that the Netherlands were referred to as a dark horse for possible tournament winner. The champions of Europe have managed to fly under the radar while England and France have taken the spotlight. Perhaps the results of the Algarve Cup put doubt in pundits’ minds; however, this run demonstrated that the Euro results were not a fluke. Every opponent facing the Orange Wave have been washed away. Could their path so far have been more challenging? Perhaps, but no one can claim the Netherlands don’t belong here. The remaining teams better watch out. 

Netherlands vs. Sweden Preview and What to Watch For

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On paper, Sweden and the Netherlands is a less enticing matchup than the showdown between the US and England that we saw last night. There certainly isn’t as much pedigree. This is only the second appearance for the Dutch, and while Sweden do have some strong showings in their history (including a finals appearance in 2003), they were knocked out in the Round of 16 or earlier in two of the last three competitions.

At the same time, the Dutch are the reigning European champions after cruising to victory in 2017. And Sweden were finalists at the Olympics, the last major global tournament. So it isn’t that surprising to see them both come this far.

They have taken slightly different paths over the intervening years since their recent success. For Sweden, it’s been a period of transition. For the Dutch, it’s been an almost aggressive commitment to staying the course.

Sweden: No longer Pia’s team

The 2016 version of the team were defensively solid—boring if you want to put it nicely, or ‘cowards’ if you’re Hope Solo. This certainly reflected the style of their coach Pia Sundhage, who prioritized efficiency and execution, and got a lot of results in the process.

But after her departure following the 2017 Euros, they brought in a new coach, Peter Gerhardsson, who has tried to instill a more attack-minded and expansive style. The spine of the team remains the same, with veterans like Caroline Seger in midfield, Nilla Fischer in defense, and Hedvig Lindahl in goal combining for over 500 caps. But there have also been some infusions of new blood, and some re-applications of old talent.

With Kosovare Asllani now installed as the number 10, Sweden have a more flamboyant style—one that sacrifices some solidity but creates more exciting chances as a consequence. They’re still not a team that will possess the ball a huge amount against top competition, but their three-player midfield gives them a little bit more control over the center of the pitch. And with wide attackers like Sofia Jakobsson, with the pace to drop back or push forward, they aren’t reduced to merely playing a counter-attacking game.

They certainly will still look to beat their opponents by executing simple tactics well—witness their extremely old fashioned ‘hit balls over the center backs and then run past them and score’ approach against Germany. But this is a team with options, who will be able to adapt their plan for the opposition. Especially if that opponent is extremely predictable. Which, fortunately for the Swedes, describes the Dutch very well.

Netherlands: A free-flowing attack that’s virtually unstoppable…when it’s working

Unlike Sweden, the Dutch squad has worked very hard to undertake as few changes as possible over the past two years. They found a formula that worked in the Euros and are sticking to it like a kid following a paint-by-numbers set. At the tip of the attack is Vivianne Miedema—one of the world’s best strikers, and as capable as anyone of burying chances when they come her way. Out wide, their two creative forwards: Lieke Martens and Shanice van de Sanden. Their job is to spread the defense and then play the ball into space for Miedema to convert. And occasionally to cut in themselves and have a shot.

Behind them: Daniëlle van de Donk, a tireless box-to-box midfielder who deputizes a bit as a ‘#10’ but is really there to bring endless movement to the midfield. She shares the forward midfield role with Jackie Groenen, who provides stability and vision. Groenen is an excellent passer, and one of those players who seems to play three or four moves ahead of everyone else. The final piece of the midfield puzzle is Sherida Spitse—not a true holding midfielder, but someone capable of filling the job in a Dutch side that otherwise lacks a bit for options. Spitse is probably less famous than the other five names in the Dutch front lines, but is potentially their most important player. If she plays well, she’s the gyroscope that keeps everything in balance. If she struggles, it all begins to wobble. Overall, the Netherlands haven’t necessarily looked great through their first five games. But they also haven’t fallen apart. A lot of the credit there probably should go to Spitse.

Those front six are about as locked into place as anything in this tournament. Despite significant struggles (and/or health concerns) for their wide forwards, there have been no changes yet. That stability has its advantages, but might also read as stubbornness. And in such a short and intense tournament, the lack of rotation could be a significant problem.

So rotation (or lack thereof) is one clear danger zone for the Dutch. The other is the backline, which has looked porous and ill-fitting all tournament. They’ve gotten away with it, but their match against Japan to advance from the Round of 16 showed just how fragile this defensive unit really is, especially when faced with teams that can move the ball quickly and generate new angles for attack. They’ve also struggled in possession, withering in the face of an aggressive press.

What to watch for

These strengths and weaknesses suggest the potential for a tactically intriguing match. The Dutch are susceptible to being picked apart. And Sweden has the potential to build that sort of attack. But they’re not Japan, so if they really try to play that way, the Swedes could find themselves a bit more open than they’re comfortable with. That’s particularly dangerous when facing a Dutch attack that loves to see space in wide areas for them to run into.

Conversely, the Dutch have had a lot of trouble creating chances on the ground. Their wide forwards have rained in a million crosses, but generally not very good ones. A solid backline could potentially afford to pack it in and simply knock all those crosses out of the way. Miedema is always a danger, but if she only really has one vector for attack, she’s probably more manageable.

So how will Sweden try to play? Will they push forward in possession and try to break the game open? Or will they simply drop back and defend? If the latter, will Netherlands’ head coach Sarina Wiegman have come up with a plan for her team that helps them pick that lock? So far, they’ve done precious little through the middle. But players like Martens, Groenen, and van de Donk (not to mention some options that have mostly been sitting on the bench) have the skill to take on that challenge.

It’s all delicately poised. You probably wouldn’t go wrong to bet on this to look somewhat similar to the famous USA v. Sweden game from the Olympics in 2016, with the Netherlands generally controlling the game but not finding much luck actually getting the ball to Miedema in a position to score. It’s an obvious approach for Sweden, and one with much to recommend it. But they have more tricks up their sleeves than a simple bunker.

The Dutch are pretty heavily favored to win by the bookmakers. That is probably right. They are the stronger team on paper, and even without firing on all cylinders yet, they’ve probably performed better in this tournament. But Sweden are no pushovers. If I were betting, I’d probably put money on Sweden. They’re underdogs, but maybe not quite as heavy underdogs as the odds makers think.

Women’s World Cup Daily: The Axis Falls

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Italy 0 – 2 Netherlands

This was always going to be a tough challenge for Italy, and they gave it a real go. But after the teams came back out from halftime, the writing was pretty quickly on the wall. Under a blazing hot sun, playing their fifth game in three weeks, the Italian players were truly struggling to keep up the pace. The ball virtually never left the Italian half. Or if it did, it was only a hopeful long ball which was quickly snagged by a Dutch defender and immediately returned. It felt like only a matter of time before they scored, and so it proved.

The two goals both came on set pieces. Perhaps strangely, given that Italy’s obviously tired limbs seemed more exploitable in open play. But it turned out to be the dead ball situations that got them – with first Miedema and then Van der Gragt simply leaping over the opposition to power home goals.

It wasn’t a game that either side will much want to revisit. For all their dominance during the second half, the Dutch never really looked like they were doing much until their opponents began to fall apart. There will still be many doubts about their ability to unlock a defense better equipped to resist. For the Italians, the first half felt like a genuine competition, but it never really seemed plausible that they would score after the half, so even a 1-0 lead for the Dutch seemed pretty insurmountable.

For all that, I do want to hit a couple themes from the game.

First, Italy’s intriguing formation. They set up in a 4-3-1-2, with Aurora Galli as a free floating #10 in between the frontline and midfield. It’s a peculiar setup, one that you don’t see very often because it has some significant limitations. But for this game, it actually worked pretty well. Italy generally looked to defend deep, with two banks fairly close together. Normally, it would be two banks of four, but here they sacrificed some solidity in the middle for a roving presence higher up. It worked well because the Dutch seemed completely unable or unwilling to shift the ball into the middle.

The result was something very similar to last night’s game between the US and France, with Italy taking on the role of the Americans. Effectively, they dared the Dutch: here is an opening, go ahead and try to exploit it. And the Netherlands couldn’t do it. Every attack went down the wings, mostly turning into over-hit crosses or soft, low balls that were cleared easily.

And, because Galli was moving freely outside of the defensive lines, when the Dutch tried to recycle play out, she was often in unexpected places and able to snag a few interceptions and launch counter attacks.

They couldn’t sustain this approach into the second half (see above re: heat and exhaustion). But for 45 minutes it really worked.

Second, the continuing struggles of the Dutch wingers. This was another awful game for Van de Sanden. And while Lieke Martens was able to play – after some injury concerns – she was again pretty anonymous. These are two superstar players, but they’re simply not getting it done. And it can’t have helped to run around in the heat today either. To be fair, once Lineth Beerensteyn came on (as I have been yelling about for a week now), she didn’t really do much either. But it remains a real issue, and one that could really use fixing. The Netherlands now have five wins so far, without ever really looking like they were that good. But we have absolutely seen them perform at the highest level. If they can get things to click into gear, there’s zero reason why they couldn’t win two more games and take home the cup.

Germany 1 – 2 Sweden

I tried to watch this game, but it turns out that tethering to my cell phone and then using VPN to pretend I’m in the US was a bridge too far. So I didn’t see a second. But it sounds like Sweden more or less executed the plan that has looked promising against Germany before: give them the ball but defend well, and then hit them with long balls that exploit their weakness and slowness in central defense.

And so Germany go out earlier than expected. They certainly did not have as successful a tournament as I thought they would, both in terms of the final result and in terms of performances across the games. They weren’t bad, but they also weren’t good. Which isn’t that different from the four teams that did make the semifinals, all of whom have shown some real weaknesses. But the Germans couldn’t manage to overcome them, and so here we are.

It can’t go without mentioning that part (maybe a big part) of the reason they have struggled is that they lost their best player after the first game (because the referee decided to let China play recklessly – a point that I’m not going to let go). They have enough depth that it really shouldn’t have been devastating, but it is certainly part of the equation.

Sweden, meanwhile, are into the semifinal. They underwhelmed a bit in the group stage, but are a genuinely exciting team. You might not know that from the commentary about them, which still seems to believe that this is Pia Sundhage’s team that defended their way to an Olympic final three years ago. There is still plenty of defensive solidity here, but they can play many ways. They probably won’t be favorites against the Netherlands, but there really isn’t much between them.

Notes

– Coming into the tournament, four teams were regarded by the bookies as being a clear step above the rest: the US, France, Germany, and England. Until this evening, they had collectively won 18 of 19 games, with the only loss being France’s defeat to the US. Frankly, it wasn’t really a surprise that one of those teams eventually lost to someone else. It’s more weird that it took so long.

– This was my first experience seeing the Netherlands traveling fans, and it was everything I had been told, and more. Truly amazing to see the walk before the game, and to hear them all in the stadium during the match.

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– I’m off to Lyon! I’ve got an early train tomorrow and will spend the afternoon getting settled and exploring a bit. I’ve never really been to the south of France, so it will be a new experience.

– (Germany and Italy were two of the primary Axis powers, while Sweden was non-aligned and the Netherlands were, of course, occupied. With the US and England making up the rest of the quartet, it’s certainly a good day for the Allies.)

 

Women’s World Cup Daily: Previewing the Quarterfinals

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After a lovely trip to Newcastle and a conference on social and political philosophy concluded, I am back in France and ready to brave the weather to see some exciting quarterfinal ties.

As you may have noticed, it’s effectively the US against the world at this point. If you want to see my thoughts on what this European dominance means, check out my piece over at AllForXI.

Norway v. England (27 June – Le Havre)

A rematch of the Round of 16 game from the last World Cup. England won that showdown and will be favored to come out ahead here again. But not heavily favored. On paper, the England squad is superior, with better top-level talent and greater depth. But that certainly does not mean Norway is weak. And what they may lack in individual ability, they have made up for with organization and structure. Their greatest weakness is an over-reliance on a few players to orchestrate the attack. If England can successfully mark Graham Hansen, for example, they will significantly dull the edge of Norway’s attack. By contrast, England have five or six viable fulcrums of the attack, and multiple players in most of those positions who can provide different variations. Look for Lucy Bronze at right back to play a crucial role. Her ability to overlap wide right, or to tuck in and create from a more central position could go a long way to unlocking the Norwegian defense.

One other point to look out for: both England center backs are in doubt—Steph Houghton from the injury she received from a vicious tackle at the end of their match against Cameroon. Millie Bright to a flu bug that’s apparently working through the camp. However, coach Phil Neville has rotated heavily, with an eye toward ensuring that anyone could step into the team if need be. That has been widely attacked by the English press, but may yet prove to be prescient here.

France v. United States (28 June – Paris)

This is the game we all marked on our calendars last winter when the draw was announced. And now it’s finally arrived. A couple of days ago, after a very difficult match against Brazil, France was being talked down significantly. Then the next day the US needed a couple of soft penalties to defeat Spain and things were recalibrated again. To my eyes, this remains every bit the exciting clash that it was always expected to be. Neither team is flawless, but both are exceptionally good. And I have a feeling that we’ll see both bring good performances here.

The game is likely to be defined primarily by who controls the wide spaces. Both sides like to attack with width, though it’s more of an absolute religion with the US than with France. A huge amount will therefore depend on which of those wide strikers turn up on the day. For the US, Megan Rapinoe has looked well off her game. But if she can find her form—or if Ellis does the somewhat unthinkable and starts Christen Press there instead—the left wing could be an important danger zone, given that Torrent at right back is exploitable for France. By the same token, Crystal Dunn has had a lot of difficulty at left back, and she hasn’t come up against anyone nearly as good as Kadidiatou Diani or Delphine Cascarino.

But while the wings will be crucial, we shouldn’t completely ignore the middle. With players like Rose Lavelle and Sam Mewis in fine form, the US has finally started to generate dangerous attacks from the inside out at this tournament. If they can maintain that sort of passing acumen here, it could make it much harder for France to cover all their gaps. But that will be no easy thing, given the strength of the French midfield. It all may therefore come back to Amandine Henry. If she produces a game at the top of her abilities, it could be enough to shift the whole tide in France’s favor.

Italy v. Netherlands (29 June – Valenciennes)

Every team left at this stage is excellent, but these are arguably two of the least-excellent teams remaining. In theory, the Dutch are the stronger team. The 2017 European champions are stuffed full of attacking talent, and should have enough to overpower an Italian defense that hasn’t yet had to face anything on this level. But at least so far, the Netherlands hasn’t been able to produce the sort of free-floating attack that we’ve all hoped to see. Their two wide forwards, Lieke Martens and Shanice Van de Sanden have both been well out of form, and the whole team seems to be lacking in ideas. If Vivianne Miedema has a good game, it probably won’t matter since she can score a brace from one and a half chances. But if she doesn’t, it’s unclear where the goals will come from at the moment.

Italy looked knackered against China, and I worry for them having to play another game on short rest. But of all the teams at this stage, they’ll be feeling the least pressure and will have the best chance to let the adrenaline carry them. Strong defensive positioning may be enough to keep them from getting overrun, and they have the personnel to come at the Dutch defense quickly—not so much through individual speed, but through quick and intelligent ball movement.

Germany v. Sweden (29 June – Rennes)

The Germans have not been especially fancied, but have done their business with relative calm all tournament. After an extremely difficult opening hour against China, they haven’t really been troubled. I don’t see any particular reason to think Sweden will be the team to knock them out, though there also isn’t any reason they couldn’t get it done. Both of these teams have been unfairly treated as ‘boring’ in quite a few corners, but there’s actually quite a lot here to enjoy.

On both sides, an impact sub could end up making a big difference. For Germany, it doesn’t sound like Dzsenifer Maroszán will be able to play a full 90 (or 120) on her broken toe but might be able to come in for a crucial late intervention.  For Sweden, Lina Hurtig got a full match against Thailand but has otherwise been a late substitute in the other three games. She’s exceptionally talented and might just be the spark they need.

Predictions

According to the betting odds, England, the US, and the Netherlands are modest favorites, while Germany are a bit heavier favorites. I do think those are the four likely winners, but I also would be tempted to take the odds and bet on the underdog in three of the four cases (with Italy the one exception).

Women’s World Cup Daily: June 25

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Round of 16: Day 4

Two fantastic games today to finish up the octofinals. Tomorrow is a day off, and then things get even more intense. If that’s possible.

Italy 2 – 0 China

The first half of this game was a huge amount of fun, and could easily have seen three or four goals. Italy were in firm control for the opening 20 minutes and really should have found more than just the one they got. But as the minutes ticked on, China appeared to settle in while Italy started to drag significantly—looking very much like a team that had played four games in less than two weeks, at the tail end of a long and grueling season.

I was particularly impressed with China’s control of play in the middle of the pitch. After an extremely physical (arguably vicious) performance against Germany, they appeared to back off considerably in their other group games. Against South Africa, they showed excellent ball movement and thoroughly controlled the game. But against Spain, they just looked timid. So I was certainly wondering how they would come into this match. What they provided was a good mixture of their strengths. They were certainly physical, but in a far more controlled fashion. During that period of dominance, they simply wouldn’t let Italy get a second on the ball.

Unfortunately for them, they simply couldn’t translate a lot of potential into a final product. Repeatedly, a delightful searching ball would find a Chinese forward in space. She would turn, execute an excellent dribble, and all that was needed was one final incisive touch or quick pass to set up a shot. But instead of doing anything, she would simply stand on the ball, giving an Italian defender time to dispossess her.

To some extent, that’s simply a credit to the Italian defense, which has only grown stronger with each game. The individual players in the backline are good, but the chemistry between them also seems to be growing. It’s a cliché, but the Italian defense is solid and extremely well organized.

At the same time, I also really wonder about the training and coaching system in China. Because watching these players, it’s clear that they have boatloads of ability, and some excellent soccer instincts. But as soon as they need to make the fateful decision to create a chance, they would freeze and the chance would evaporate. When one player does that, it’s possible that it’s simply a flaw in her game. But when many players do the same thing, it feels like a problem in the coaching.

In the end, that’s what took China out of this tournament. They demonstrated a lot of potential, but lacked a coherent structure through which they could apply their ability.

For Italy, the incredible journey continues. They weren’t particularly great today, but it was enough to get the job done. They’ll face a significantly harder task on Saturday in Valenciennes. And given how much they seemed to be struggling with exhaustion here, it’s hard to think they’ll be fully ready to go in less than four days. But a lot of their journey has been improbable.

Netherlands 2 – 1 Japan

One of the finest games in the tournament. Two technically adept teams working at high speed, passing the ball relentlessly, attacking with pace and precision. It was glorious to watch.

But it was also one of the most frustrating games of the tournament. Japan were marvelous and unloaded an assault on the Dutch goal in the second half, but just couldn’t find a way through. And then, in the dying moments, it was the Dutch who scored a heartbreaker, on one of those ‘technically by the rules but come on’ handballs.

It was exceptionally cruel to Japan, who played as well tonight as they have in years. Sugita was incredible. Iwabuchi created chance after chance. Hasegawa scored a wonderful goal. The defense stopped up the Dutch quite well. It was just wonderful all around. But soccer isn’t fair, and so they’re going home.

It felt particularly unfair on Japan because they did everything right coming into this game. Rather than sticking with an aging squad after 2015, they cleaned shop and started fresh. That meant a lot of losses and tough games, but it helped them arrive in France ready and revitalized. Then, after a bad performance against Argentina, Asako Takakura reshuffled her lineup, and turned everything around.

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Compare that to the Netherlands who have rested on their laurels and aggressively refused to make necessary changes. They rode Lieke Martens and Shanice van de Sanden to the Euros in 2017, and so they’re sticking with them here, despite extremely mediocre performances. Martens certainly made her contribution today with that lovely backheel goal, but was pretty nonexistent otherwise. And van de Sanden was a caricature of her worst habits. Only once she was subbed off for Beerensteyn (free Lineth Beerensteyn!) did the Dutch finally get some useful action down the right flank – including the play that eventually produced the penalty, which came from Beerensteyn driving in to make something happen instead of sending in yet another helpless cross.

But that’s the way it goes. Sometimes the right approach loses and the wrong one wins. That’s soccer.

For all that they’ve failed to find their top gear (or really, anything past second gear if we’re being honest), the Dutch are through to the quarterfinals. And while my love for Italy knows no bounds, the reality is that this is probably the easiest draw for that round. So even without truly finding their form, they could make the semifinals. Heaven help their opponents if they actually manage to put it all back together.

Notes

– We have to fix this ‘any ball that touches your arm at all is a penalty’ rule. We need to fix it yesterday.

– I want to buy an Italy Bonansea shirt, but as far as I can tell it’s basically impossible for me to do so. Fans at this tournament have to stand in lines a hundred people deep to buy merchandise. They aren’t selling alcohol. Matches are listed as sold out, when there are actually plenty of seats available. It sure feels like the soccer elites have left a massive amount of money on the table in the past month. That’s how sexist they are. Just about their favorite thing in the world is money, but it’s still not enough of a lure to get them to properly organize this event.

– It’s hilarious to me how differently the media in England, the US, and France have responded to underwhelming performances from their respective countries. I feel like it says a lot about each country.

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– I was not enthusiastic about Jill Ellis’s ‘tactical’ decisions last night. For an even better piece on that same point, check out this one from Kim McCauley.

– This piece from Stephanie Yang is important, though unpleasant, reading.

– Jeff Kassouf and Kieran Theivam’s The Making of the Women’s World Cup is out today in the US. If you haven’t already ordered it, definitely do it now. It’s great, and will make for some excellent reading while you wait for more games in the tournament. My full review is here.

– I was busy for most of the day with my conference, which has been great. Picture above is of the Newcastle city wall, built during the Middle Ages. It was breached by the Scots in their invasion during the English Civil War. So that’s fun.

Women’s World Cup Daily: Previewing the Round of 16

Posted on by Backline Soccer

Tomorrow begins the knockout stage. While we all take a break today, here is a preview for each match. If you want a bit more detail on a couple of the most tantalizing games, head over and check out our own Allison Cary’s post on the Top Three Matchups in the Round of 16.

Germany – Nigeria (22 June, Grenoble)

Germany will be heavy favorites, but it would be a huge mistake to write off Nigeria. They were after all one bizarre penalty retake away from earning a draw against France. And their strike force has the speed and intelligent movement to wreck the fragile Germany defense. The big question will be whether Nigeria can do enough to harass the German midfield. If this turns into a training ground exercise sort of match, with Nigeria endlessly chasing, I have faith in Germany’s ability to pick off the defense and score the goals they’ll need.

Norway – Australia (22 June, Nice)

One of the most exciting matches of this round. If you subtract Sam Kerr, Norway has arguably the stronger team in all three lines right now. Of course, add Kerr back and the equations start to change pretty rapidly. Not only is she arguably the best striker in the world, her mere presence warps games and forces the other team to re-organize to accommodate. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. In theory, this should be a high-scoring thriller, with Norway using their ability to attack directly to pose all sorts of troubles for Australia’s cobbled-together backline, and Australia firing back with Kerr and Foord up top. But it could go very much in the other direction. If Norway decide to focus on controlling the midfield and starving Kerr of chances, this might end up a tedious 0-0 decided on penalties.

England – Cameroon (23 June, Valenciennes)

England went three-for-three in the group stage without quite kicking into full gear. This could be more of the same, against a Cameroon team who has proven to be quite difficult to play without posing nearly as much attacking threat as anticipated. As with every England game, one big question will be who Phil Neville chooses to play. It’s a squad with a huge amount of depth, and with five or six spots where you can make compelling arguments in multiple directions about who to play. Will he go with experience or youth? Pace or precision? Volatility or dependability? I’m particularly curious to see whether Georgia Stanway might have done enough to play herself into taking over the role of creative midfielder from Fran Kirby.

France – Brazil (23 June, Le Havre)

This is the glamor tie of the round, with two of the great names in world soccer. But these are very much two teams moving in different directions. France is a co-favorite for the tournament, while Brazil is an aging team trying to eke out one more result before their key players shuffle off the stage. Still, for all their struggles coming into the tournament (nine losses in a row!), Brazil managed six points in the group stage, including a solid performance against Italy in their last game. But for all that Italy has been great, they’re no France. Brazil will need much better from Marta (who hasn’t really contributed much, to be honest) and will need flawless games from the likes of Thaisa and Andressinha. That’s certainly possible, but if they expose any cracks, that midfield is going to get absolutely run over by France, and that will probably be the game.

USA – Spain (24 June, Reims)

If this game feels familiar, it should. The US played Spain just five months ago. It was a 1-0 game for the US that day, but Spain earned plaudits for their excellent possession and ability to control the game for long stretches. Expect some of the same this time, but probably to a lesser extent. The US were in their off-season last time, with Spain right in the middle of their season. That’s not true now, and it’s hard to see this version of the US conceding any space for Spain to play. The main question for the game is whether Spain is able to exert enough control in the middle of the pitch to dictate play, or if the US can overload the wings and bring overwhelming force to bear against the center backs before anyone can get back to help them. I’m betting on the latter, and would be surprised at any result other than a comfortable win for the US.

Sweden – Canada (24 June, Paris)

This has been widely billed as a boring tie between two teams that play hyper-defensively. Which is a good test of whether folks have actually been watching Sweden. Because this version of Sweden is hardly the stolid defending team that rode a series of drab games to the Olympic final three years ago. They may not be scoring much, but it’s not for lack of trying. They’re not going to say damn the torpedoes and go full leather into the attack, but this shouldn’t be a completely cagey match, and has at least some potential to be genuinely interesting. Both coaches have the ability and willingness to adapt, which could make for some fascinating chess as the game progresses.

Italy – China (25 June, Montpellier)

Italy were the surprise winners of Group C and as a reward got a game that certainly looks easier on paper than their groupmates. But in practice, this looks like precisely the sort of team that Italy will hate to play. China showed against Germany that they have the ability to play an aggressive physical game which depends very little on doing anything constructive. But Italy’s success so far has largely come from two things. First, picking at the weak spots in their opponent’s setup and then ruthlessly exploiting them. Second, using their physicality to disrupt the opposition, riding their luck a little bit to avoid getting tossed into the sin bin. Will they have the same results against the chaotic bundle of energy that is China? On the opposite side, will China look to play at full tilt like they did against Germany, or will they sit a bit deeper and ride their luck like they did against Spain. The former was far more successful than the latter, so I’d be surprised to see anything else here. Let’s all say a brief prayer for the lower-body health of Italy’s forwards.

Netherlands – Japan (25 June, Rennes)

On paper, this looks like the most exciting match of the round. Two teams with a lot of attacking potential, but in very different styles. The Dutch will look to spread the defense, to create spaces for Miedema to work in, and to give their wide attackers targets to ping with crosses, and create room for slashing runs. This relies on a great deal of technical ability but is fundamentally about vertical movement. Japan, by contrast, are all about triangles. They’ll hope to move the ball quickly through the middle. So far, Japan has been more potential than reality, and my gut tells me that will continue here as well. The Netherlands are absolutely exploitable, but I’m not sure Japan has enough firepower to match the goals they’re likely to concede. At the risk of invoking the pundit’s curse and ensuring this ends up 0-0, I’d expect goals—quite a lot of goals—here.  

Women’s World Cup Daily – June 20

Posted on by Backline Soccer

June 20: Matchday 14

The group stage is over. It took 14 days and 32 games to eliminate a grand total of eight teams. It’s actually kind of a silly process, but so many of these games have been so great that I find it hard to really complain. 

Cameroon 2 – 1 New Zealand

Netherlands 2 – 1 Canada

In the day’s early games, the Netherland confirmed their status at the top of the group with a win, albeit not a particularly easy one. The real excitement was in Cameroon v. New Zealand, where we looked set for yet another ‘draw that helps neither team’ until literally the final seconds of the game, when Cameroon found their winner. It was an absolutely magical moment for them, and a well-deserved result for a team that has played tough in all three games. That result did eliminate Argentina and Thailand, and really put the pressure on Chile for the late game–forcing them to win by a clear three goals to advance.

The Canada-Netherlands game mostly confirmed things we already knew about these teams. Canada did an excellent job killing off the game for about an hour – showing why many of us have tipped them as team that could go further than might seem plausible. They’re not going to beat many of the other top teams, in the sense of outplaying them. But they can neutralize just about anyone. 

At the same time, the Dutch did find two goals, one more than Canada had conceded over the entire rest of 2019. So even though the Netherlands still didn’t quite look right, there were a few solid glimpses of the team that won the Euros. It was enough to net them the two goals they needed. 

If they expect to go significantly further in the tournament, they’re going to need to get better performances from their defenders, who once again looked pretty shaky. They also may want to consider whether the likes of Jill Roord and Lineth Beerensteyn might deserve a start. They’ve been getting very little from Lieke Martens and Shanice van de Sanden. It’s hard to argue against going with proven talent, and the substitutions have been working well. But they’ve also had to ride a decent bit of luck to win their three games.

Sweden 0 – 2 United States

Thailand 0 – 2 Chile

Heartbreak for Chile, who came achingly close to qualifying for the knockout stage by only managing two of the three goals they needed. I was in Le Havre watching the US so I didn’t get a chance to see it, but it sounds like this was the truly exciting match of the late time slot, one which was unfortunately probably seen by a tiny fraction of the people who watched the other game.

But since I was one of those who watched the other game, that’s where I’ll have to restrict my comments.

After two matches that were effectively uncontested, the US finally got to face some serious opposition. It didn’t actually look that serious in the opening twenty or thirty minutes, as the US moved at breakneck speed and looked like a constant threat to score. Sweden struggled badly in this period to do anything with the ball, occasionally finding a little space out wide but almost nothing else. And they also seemed at a loss to cope with the US ball movement and speed of play. They didn’t really press, but also didn’t drop back to limit space. They mostly just backpedaled and then got turned by either a dribble or pass. It looked like it might turn into another bloodbath.

But eventually Sweden got their bearings, and the US dropped off a bit. The second half was much closer, with Sweden finding a lot more time on the ball, getting a lot of dangerous play from Kosovare Asllani in the middle and from Sofia Jackobsson out wide. Fridolina Rolfo also looked dangerous after she came on as a substitute.

Still, in spite of those threats, the US never really looked to be in danger. After a wonder goal from Tobin Heath (officially listed as an own goal), they rested fairly easily on their 2-0 margin.

In the end, that pretty much just means they held serve. This was a second-string Sweden team, with quite a few changes from their primary XI, and the US would have been expected to win pretty easily. Which they did. And that’s fine. When you’re the best team in the tournament, as long as you hold serve you’ll probably win. 

But this certainly was’t a dominant performance, and it showed that all the weaknesses we’ve discussed at length are still there. 

It also exposed one newish weakness: Megan Rapinoe. I don’t think this is actually that new of a phenomenon, since I actually struggle to think of examples from this year when she’s really been Megan Rapinoe. But this was a particuarly rough game for her. She was virtually nonexistent in the attack, and actively blew up several promising moves. It’s possible that this is her lingering injury. Maybe it’s rust from lack of training and limited games. Maybe she’s just finally reverted to the aging curve we all expected her to follow a couple years ago. Or maybe it’s just a bad patch and she’ll be back in top shape soon. I certainly don’t feel comfortable saying for sure. But given how dynamic Christen Press has been in that exact role, it’s certainly time to at least consider whether Press should be the first choice there for the upcoming knockout games.

Notes

– If you didn’t see it already, check out my post on last night’s truly mad experience: Scotland, Argentina, and the Human Condition.

– The second US goal was allowed to stand. And according to the rules as they appear to be written (and interpreted), that is apparently the correct call. But by any reasonable interpretation, it should clearly have been disallowed. Carli Lloyd very obviously interfered with play from an offside position. This is the rule, apparently. But it is an absolute nonsense rule and we should absolutely not tolerate it.

Tomorrow’s action

There are no games tomorrow. I don’t really know what we’re supposed to do with ourselves, to be completely honest.

 

Women’s World Cup Daily – June 15

Posted on by RJ Allen

June 15: Matchday 9

Netherlands 3 – 1 Cameroon

This was an ugly, ugly game. Lots of fouls, poor refereeing, plenty of bizarre unexplained stoppages, along with poor touches and poor tackles from just about everyone. It did produce four goals, three of which were nicely worked, and remained close for most of the game. For those reasons, I’ve seen it described as one of the more exciting games in the tournament. But let’s be real folks, this was a terrible game of soccer.

In their first game, the Dutch were reasonably good but couldn’t finish. This time around they were very bad, but were able to finish. I suppose it more or less comes out in the wash, but if I were a Dutch fan I’d be extremely worried about this team. To be more precise, here’s a complete list of players who played well today: 

  1. Vivianne Miedema

This team is ridiculously talented, but at the moment they look about as weak as you can reasonably imagine them looking. Now, they have still managed to acquire six points from six, so maybe it’s just a case of a good team powering through a slow start. But at least so far, we haven’t seen anything remotely like the dazzling side that ripped apart their opponents two years ago in the Euros.

The backline is a major worry. It was a known concern going into the tournament, but has been even worse than expected. Anouk Dekker returned to the starting XI today after serving her suspension, but only brought more chaos, giving the ball away several times in incredibly dangerous areas for no particular reason. Bloodworth scored, but was off the pace all day and was often out of position. 

But it’s more than just the defense. The whole team just looked bad today. They couldn’t connect simple passes. Their touch was bad. They weren’t reading the game well. And despite some significant athletic advantages over Cameroon, they were pushed around quite a bit.

To some extent, this might be an officiating issue, with a referee who failed to keep a grip on the game. But this didn’t feel like China v. Germany, where the overall combativeness was in service of some larger tactical agenda. This was just a very snippy game that didn’t need to be.

For Cameroon, they were realistically never going to get much from two games against Canada and the Dutch. To hold their goal difference to just -3 over those two matches absolutely gives them a fighting chance. Beat New Zealand and they’ll be in the running for a berth in the knockout round. 

Canada 2 – 0 New Zealand

An exceptionally dull game, defined by one team that was entirely willing to let the other side attack, and an opposition that probed and probed and probed and probed, but lacked the technical ability to produce much of anything in the process. Canada did generate two goals, which is 100% more than I expected, so that does count for something. But this really just felt like exactly the result you’d expect from these two teams.

It was interesting to see Canada adapt fairly quickly. Once it became apparent just how deep New Zealand were going to set up – and that they were going to keep two forwards – coach Kenneth Heiner-Møller shifted his team shape significantly, dropping Schmidt into the central defense, allowing the fullbacks to operate as midfielders. They played most of the game in a 3-1-4-2, and were never really troubled in the process. It was a breath of fresh air in a tournament with exceptionally little tactical innovation.

For Canada, this was a job done. The results on the day do mean that they’ll need to beat the Netherlands to take top spot in the group, since the Dutch now hold the tiebreaker. But it’s not especially clear that it matters who wins the group – either way, you play a 2nd place team from another group in the round of 16. The only caveat here is that the runners-up could theoretically face the US if Sweden were to somehow beat them in the final game of the group stage, which is an eventuality you probably want to protect yourself from.

Canada remain a thoroughly limited team, but it’s hard to argue with results. No one much enjoys watching a team with talented players grind out results, but the reality is there just isn’t enough talent here to actually play some of the top teams in the tournament. So they’ve decided to lean into functionality, and hope for a thunderbolt now and again to generate a goal. It’s certainly worked so far, but we can see how it works against the Dutch before drawing any more conclusions.

Notes

– By my count, there were eight teams entering the tournament that felt like plausible title contenders. Of those, Australia and the Dutch have looked awful, Germany has struggled, Japan couldn’t do anything against Argentina and England only looked somewhat better. Canada has looked very professional and very dull, which seems to be their game plan, so we can call that a neutral result. But only the US and France have truly impressed.

I wouldn’t want to over-interpret the results from a tiny set of games, but it’s possible the two favorites deserve to be even heavier favorites than we once thought.

– I once again subjected myself to the Fox commentary for the Canada game and…it astonishes me that people being paid to talk about soccer on a major national broadcast can exhibit so little interest in actually describing what’s going on in the soccer game they’re ostensibly covering.

– As planned, I took the afternoon to wander around the Musée de l’Orangerie, which was really lovely. I’m a big fan of Monet, so the huge panels of water lilies were great, but I also really liked the other exhibits downstairs. Obviously, hit up the Louvre, Pompidou, and d’Orsay first, but if you have time for more, strong recommendation.

Tomorrow’s action

  • Sweden – Thailand. Based on their first game, no one will be expecting anything from Thailand. And while Sweden are not on the level of the US, they’re still quite good, so it’s quite likely we see another lopsided result. Still, Thailand were subjected to an epically bad goalkeeping performance last time, so if they change keepers (or remind Charoenying that she’s allowed to use her hands), it should be less of a bulldozing. 
  • USA – Chile. See above. Unlike Thailand, Chile have a world class keeper, so will not give away goals nearly so cheaply. But it would be an epic shock if the US failed to win this game. Expect something on the order of 4-0. Maybe tighter, but also maybe much worse. The one big question is whether the US rotates, and if so, how much. Ellis doesn’t like doing it, but it’s a short tournament and probably would be wise.