Tag: NWSL

Backline Chat: Searching for Reasons to be Optimistic

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Welcome everyone to our Backline chat for the first week of April. We’ve got some international games coming up, and the start of the NWSL season just past that on the horizon. We’ll cover both of those topics this week. But to kick things off, let’s start with the national team. With the two upcoming matches against Australia and Belgium likely the sternest tests they’ll face before the World Cup begins, what are you looking for here?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): Was Ali Krieger brought in to play or just to give the forwards a tougher test in training? That honestly is my biggest question.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): Ali has to be a headline. I don’t see how you don’t start her if you’re Jill.

RJ Allen: It would be cruel to sit her at 99. And I am not a huge fan of major hyperbole when it comes to all of this.

Charles Olney: Yeah, I actually do expect her to play, though I certainly wouldn’t put any money on it. But I would be surprised if she only plays once.

One thing I actually appreciate about Ellis is that she just doesn’t seem to care much about the hoopla around stuff like this. But I don’t think she’s completely unaware of how it would look.

RJ Allen: Honestly having Krieger makes me less nervous about Dunn. They can play a 3.5 back with Krieger in and I would be much more comfortable.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I agree.

RJ Allen: The best and worst (if you’re Ellis) thing about Krieger is she will stay back if she feels she needs to.

Charles Olney: I think I’m one of the lone voices that has generally been pretty happy with Sonnett out there, but there’s no denying that fullback is a massive weak spot for a team that’s pretty stacked everywhere else.

RJ Allen: I think Sonnett is more or less fine but she is not *really* an outside back.

Charles Olney: That said, I also think Krieger just isn’t really up to this level anymore.

Or an outside back anymore either, really.

I would be happy to be proven wrong about that, though. I’ve always been a fan of Krieger.

RJ Allen: I think Krieger at 80% is still better than 100% of Dunn at outside back though.

Charles Olney: Well, I won’t belabor the point, but all of this is yet another reason why it’s frustrating that Ellis proved so hopeless at organizing a back three. It would be a pretty clean solution to this particular weakness, if they could just do it.

Luis Hernandez: It’s also fair to say that Ali hasn’t had match minutes in a while and if she did start against the Matildas, well that may be interesting…

Charles Olney: Any other issues on your mind about these games? What do you expect in the midfield? More Sam Mewis maybe? More Pugh for some reason?

RJ Allen: Please let Sam Mewis play.

Allison Cary: I’d like more Mewis, please.

Anthony Merced (@nycsportsworld): At some point they have to show what kind of energy level they’ll have in France. I feel like these games are that. SheBelieves felt like an intentional mess which is “okay” but things needs to be smoother in these games.

Charles Olney: It is weird that they scheduled all these games, but it’s hard to identify what they’ve actually gotten out of them…other than wiping away a lot of the momentum from 2018.

Anthony Merced: Truth is USWNT is the only commodity US Soccer is running that anyone cares about.

So they are trotting them out for games that are very unnecessary and the team has to balance it.

RJ Allen: I would honestly like to see Morgan/Press/Heath and Pinoe “set free”. Sometimes it feels like the system is somehow just hoping they will have a great moment and win it vs setting them up and letting those moments come naturally.

Luis Hernandez: Pugh hasn’t done herself any favors with her recent run with the squad.

RJ Allen: Pugh also has the “kid savior” mantle that was given to her.

Luis Hernandez: I’m noticing a tread if you ask me. It starts and stops with Ellis as coach

RJ Allen: I don’t think anyone can live up to who she was when she bust on to the team. It’s like a pitch that blows people away year one and then people figure out.

Anthony Merced: Hopefully she survives that. It’s hard when that title weighs on you in big tournaments.

Charles Olney: It’s crazy to think how long she’s been around, and how young she still is. There’s all the potential in the world there still, but it’s been almost a full year since she’s really been any good.

Allison Cary: Yeah, she carries a lot on her shoulders for a player that still has a lot of her career ahead of her (and thus, a lot of improvement. Hopefully)

Charles Olney: Alright, any predictions for these matches?

Luis Hernandez: I’m on record. I think the US wins both matches.

RJ Allen: US does not win against the Aussies and then takes Belgium out back behind the woodshed.

Allison Cary: I think the US could lose or draw to Australia. Beats Belgium.

Anthony Merced: Feel the same way. Australia is really good.

Charles Olney: I’ll go with two wins, I suppose. But it’s been a long time since the US has really controlled a game against Australia.

Luis Hernandez: Is playing at altitude a factor at all?

RJ Allen: Maybe but not enough I think it will change much of anything. Australia has been there for a few days.

Charles Olney: So, staying on the national team, but moving off the pitch, the continuing cold war over equal pay continues apace. The most recent move was recently announced, with Luna Bar providing the cash to cover the gap in prize money for the men’s and women’s teams.

Big deal? Weird PR campaign? Signal of more to come?

Anthony Merced: Very weird PR. US Soccer can easily address this and come out looking better but instead things like this happen.

Allison Cary: Because it’s coming from a private corporation and not the federation, that limits how “big of a deal” it can be. It’s not a long-term solution, just a PR stunt. That being said, glad they are getting something out of it.

Luis Hernandez: It’s a weird PR campaign for sure. A nice touch, but still weird.

Allison Cary: I do think it looks bad for US Soccer. Which hopefully pushes them.

RJ Allen: It’s so weird but I am glad they are getting the money? I feel torn to be honest.

Luis Hernandez: I partly saw it as smart marketing with the USWNT PA.

Charles Olney: On the whole, it seems to me that the players are winning their social media campaign – but it’s more that US Soccer has been terrible and less that they’ve done a fantastic job.

Allison Cary: I’d largely agree with that assessment.

RJ Allen: I’m honestly not sure that USSF cares that much about any of this though.

Anthony Merced: USSF lives in a strange bubble where they think they can strike oil by paying foreign teams to come play in the United States.

Charles Olney: And I feel obliged to point out every time this stuff comes up that ‘equal pay’ is great, and I’m all for the USWNT getting fair compensation for their talents and labor. But it still does ring a little hollow when the equality is so strictly limited to the national team.

RJ Allen: A lot of it makes me just sigh.

Charles Olney: Same.

Allison Cary: I see where the national team can seem limited, but I think it’s a first step. We’re not gonna get equality between the leagues overnight. Hopefully this pushes things in the right direction.

Charles Olney: I think that’s right, Allison. Still, I would really like to see the solidarity be expressed a little more aggressively.

RJ Allen: The leagues are frankly not going to be equal in our lifetimes. That’s not to say we shouldn’t push forward and try though.

Allison Cary: Yeah, Charles, I definitely get what you’re saying. It’s hard not to feel like so many players are being left behind.

Charles Olney: It’s one of those terrible things where we put expectations on those who are treated unequally to care about those who are below them, while also still needing to fight for what they deserve. But just because it’s unfair doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be a priority.

Luis Hernandez: seems like a reflection of our society

Anthony Merced: Absolutely a reflection of society. We like to pretend that there is equality (gender and race) but then there are glaring examples where the issues are very blatant. Just look at Latin American players in MLS and their treatment vs. European players.

Charles Olney: Alright, unless people have any other thoughts about the USWNT, let’s briefly look outside the US. There are a whole bunch of friendlies coming up. Any that you are particularly interested in? Any teams that still have something to prove as they work their way toward France?

Luis Hernandez: it frustrates me that soccer-crazed countries in central and south America are also not backing the women’s game there like they should be. I get it baby steps…

RJ Allen: I think England has a lot to prove.

They are going to want to show 2015 wasn’t a fluke.

Charles Olney: I’ve got my eye on Spain v. Brazil. This is a pretty weak version of Brazil but they were actually a little better in SheBelieves than I expected. And Spain is fascinating to watch develop.

Anthony Merced: It’s amazing how far Brazil has fallen.

Charles Olney: Yeah, England v. Canada should be good. That’s a team England really should beat, but who will be tough to play. We could learn a lot about both of them there.

Luis Hernandez: France should be bouncing back from the lost to Germany. Hope Japan does well.

Allison Cary: I’m not convinced on England yet. It will be interesting to see them face Canada. I agree that they have a lot to prove.

Charles Olney: I’m a little confused why the Dutch are ‘only’ playing Mexico and Chile? It seems like they could have used a tougher tune-up here? Mexico feels like the team you schedule for a couple weeks before the tournament to just get a game.

Allison Cary: Yeah, that isn’t exactly a challenging lineup.

Charles Olney: I wonder if it’s a matter of preference or if the FA just dropped the ball or something.

Luis Hernandez: I’m also going to keep an eye out on Sweden

Charles Olney: Okay, moving back to the US, let’s talk a little NWSL. The season is closing in. We can do a full leaguewide roundup next week. But for now, do you feel like you’ve learned anything from the preseason so far?

Luis Hernandez: Not me.

Anthony Merced: Sky Blue will be better, but I have no real evidence to prove that.

RJ Allen: I am team #PreseasonDoesNotMatter but I think the Portland event did show that playing other pro teams can be useful.

Luis Hernandez: Preseason can be taken with a grain of salt. It won’t tell you if your team is good, but if it’s bad then the early warning signs are there.

Charles Olney: Agreed there, RJ. Chicago won’t have liked to lose those games, but I think they’ll be in much better shape for having played them.

Anthony Merced: North Carolina is good but I feel like we already knew that.

Luis Hernandez: The Spirit played to a draw with the Tarheels, right? There could be a sign of trouble.

Charles Olney: They’ve definitely struggled with results across several of these games. Though they looked WORLDS better for the half that I did watch them against Bordeaux.

Luis Hernandez: Oh, and of course preseason isn’t great when you have season ending injuries for your team either.

Allison Cary: Luis is right. That sucks.

Charles Olney: Yeah, Sky Blue cannot catch a break, it seems. Though you do have to start wondering about training techniques when so many players are getting injured. Similar with Washington under Gabarra.

Luis Hernandez: Teah, that’s certainly a valid point. why are some teams more prone to injury?

RJ Allen: Trainers do not have consistent training from what I’ve heard.

Anthony Merced: NWSL teams don’t have deep conditioning coaching staffs.

Charles Olney: This was a major revolution in the men’s game in the 90s and early 2000s, with physical fitness coaches and nutritional people coming in to help players. And most of that has been shared on the women’s side. But it’s clearly not happening at the same level of detail, and especially not in the NWSL where the resources are so limited.

Anthony Merced: That leads to injuries.

Charles Olney: It does make me wonder if trying to mimic good methods, but failing to quite manage it, might end up being worse than doing nothing.

RJ Allen: A lot of it comes down to just not having the ability to do the same things, including the same testing, that would happen on the men’s side.

Anthony Merced: Also, from what I have seen, many of the preseason games have been on awful artificial pitches.

Charles Olney: Taking a step back slightly to look at the bigger picture, there’s been a conversation going on this week about the state of the NWSL in 2019. A lot of us are not thrilled. There’s still no commissioner (probably a permanent state at this point), no communications department at all, no official announcement about streaming, no new sponsorships. They canceled the Lifetime deal, supposedly to give them more flexibility to do things on their own. And since then…crickets. This feels bad.

Am I overreacting?

Anthony Merced: No, you’re not. It is very concerning.

RJ Allen: I think president has taken the title as commissioner.

Luis Hernandez: No, I check Yahoo Sports daily to see if anyone will update the soccer page

RJ Allen: I don’t think they are separate.

Allison Cary: The message seems to be that this is not a league looking to grow. And I don’t really mean adding new teams, but just getting more people involved. Raising the bar. Changing the status quo.

RJ Allen: The league feels like it’s trapped in quicksand. The harder it moves the deeper it sinks.

Luis Hernandez: the league is suppose to be holding teams accountable to these new standards. Is the league not clued in that it should go both ways. Then I listen to RJ and end up blaming USSF.

Charles Olney: The small counterpoints I’ll provide: the transition from Seattle to Reign FC was handled well, and is potentially a good sign that independent ownership can work. Chicago’s marketing approach is great, and a model for other teams. And Utah seems to actively be trying to grow, and might just be able to change the narrative about lackluster (non-Portland) MLS partnerships.

That’s me trying to be optimistic. Is it persuasive?

Allison Cary: It’s not all bad or all good. There are positives and negatives.

Luis Hernandez: don’t forget that Orlando made the commitment and hired a full time GM for the Pride. Or Houston increasing the size of the coaching staff. Seems like the teams if they have the will can get on the right path

Charles Olney: Good points. Even Sky Blue has made (some) progress.

It does feel like team-by-team you could tell a positive story about the offseason. It’s the leaguewide level that is troubling.

Allison Cary: True.

Luis Hernandez: In spite of the league, teams generally want to succeed

RJ Allen: And yet, they persisted.

Charles Olney: Well, we won’t reach any firm conclusions today. But as always it’s something to keep an eye on. Any final topics that people want to throw out there?

Luis Hernandez: I have a question for the group

Luis Hernandez: With the report that Ella Masar is leaving Wolfsburg at the end of the season, will she end up in the NWSL and if so where?

Allison Cary: I’d love to see her in the league, but not sure if she’ll find her way back here.

Anthony Merced: I think she’ll go to England.

RJ Allen: I was thinking England too.

Anthony Merced: Manchester United is heading for the D1 and they are going to spend some cash so that may be a landing spot.

Charles Olney: I wouldn’t be shocked if she ended up as a Laura Harvey surprise midseason move. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

And with that, we will close things out for today. Thanks for reading everyone. And as always, let us know if you have any topics you’d like to hear us discuss in future weeks!

What Happens if the NWSL Folds?

Posted on by RJ Allen

This piece is one I don’t want to write. And for a long time I didn’t think I would ever write something like this.

And then I watched the Canadian Women’s Hockey League fold. Quickly too.

Take something as simple as their Wiki entry, which went from “The Canadian Women’s Hockey League are a professional women’s ice hockey league” to “The Canadian Women’s Hockey League was a professional women’s ice hockey league.”

It’s just one word, but that “was” terrifies me.

This league is strong enough to have me spending thousands of dollars to cover games and hundreds of hours writing and talking about the NWSL. It’s strong enough to push a lot of talented people to do a lot of work to try to keep this whole thing going.

But what if it isn’t strong enough?

What happens if the house of cards finally falls? If the neglect from media deals and sponsorships that never came to be eventually add up to enough of a breeze to send the cards flying?

Shock happens first, right? Trauma from the body blow puts the whole system into crisis. However it happens, it’s likely that the ax won’t come down cleanly. Even in death, the league would probably find the least graceful way to go. So it would begin with an avalanche of tweets from the media. Then the official statement and the tweets from players come next. Each confused and angry and trying to figure out if they will ever put a jersey on again.

Anger is next. Righteous and white hot. Anger at the system and at the NWSL and at USSF for not saving this league. For knowing they could and not saving the third attempt at a women’s pro league in the most successful women’s soccer country.

Anger at those who would blow $70,000,000 on second men’s pro football league, which the NFL will crush under their heel before breakfast, while even a tenth of that money could have stabilized the NWSL for good.

But the anger can only burn for so long. Because life has to go on.

Some players would head overseas. They would find a team, any team, to take them on. For the top players, it will be fine. There will still be leagues with the money to pay for Alex Morgan or Rachel Daly or Lydia Williams. But for the average player, it will be tougher. There are only so many spots out there, and most of them are full.

Some might play for a semi pro team, figuring that it’s worth sacrificing a bit to keep playing, in hope that another league will come. WPS players had to wait less than 2 years for the NWSL. It’ll happen this time too. Right? Well, maybe.

For a lot of players though, this would be it. They would just retire. How many times can we expect them to change their lives for an uncaring sport, anyway? How many times can we ask them to pack up little boxes and move to another place? At some point they pack up their kits for the last time and get on with their lives. And down the road they can tell stories about how they used to play professional soccer.

If another league does form–a few months later, maybe a few years later–then we all get to start the count down all over again. Hold our breaths every time a mistake is made, feel our hearts pound when one season ends, wondering if that will be the last one.

Backline Soccer won’t determine if the NWSL survives. Neither will any of the SB Nation sites or the Equalizer. We can post 5 pieces a day about each of the NWSL teams for the rest of time and wouldn’t get half the eyeballs that the New York Times sports section would get if they wrote a piece about every Sky Blue game.

The NWSL needs people watching and a deal to allow that to happen. They need good people doing excellent work week in and week out in their front office and with each of the teams. They need money. From new owners coming in, from deals that give them a chance for real growth.

I wasn’t a writer when the WPS folded. I didn’t follow the league. I don’t know what it must have been like when the ax came swinging down.

I hope I never find out either.

Why I Joined 5 NWSL Supporters Groups and Why I Plan to Join 4 More

Posted on by RJ Allen

As someone who has not been shy about their feelings on fans picking a team and sticking with them, why would I become a member of 9 different supporters groups?

The idea of a supporters group is, for those who don’t know, a bit like the fan clubs of old. They are a way for fans to connect together to talk about that thing they love that others in their lives might not understand. And having people to tail gate with is always a bonus too, right?

We should take a look at the supporters groups in the NWSL. This is not meant to be a full list but it is the one that I am going off of based on who clubs recognize.

The Chicago Red Stars have Chicago Local 134.

The Houston Dash have Bayou City Republic.

The North Carolina Courage have the Junkyard Dogs.

The Orlando Pride have the Black Swans Drinking Club.

The Portland Thorns FC have the Rose City Riveters.

The Reign FC have the Royal Guard.

Sky Blue FC have Cloud 9.

The Utah Royals FC have The Court.

The Washington Spirit have the Spirit Squadron.

Currently the Court, the Royal Guard and the Spirit Squadron do not have memberships open for 2019 but I have been told both will be open soon. Everyone else is accepting memberships.

Soccer culture in America, men’s or women’s, pro to amateur has a very different history than it does in other parts of the world. And that is understandable. NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL teams and fans color the modern sporting landscape in the US in a way they just don’t in other countries where soccer, rugby or cricket are king.

As with a lot of things in American soccer, modern supporters group culture only goes back so far. And often it has been grown in a broken stream as leagues and teams come and go. That effect is felt all the more in women’s soccer.

But supporters groups are something found far and wide and for good reason. In supporters groups you can find people ranging from the die-hards who could name the roster in numerical order, alphabetical if you rather have it broken down that way and tell you their college stats if you were interested all the way down to the new fan who just doesn’t want to go to games alone.

They stand and drum and make tifos that range from jokes about Chicago pizza being a casserole (Thank you Cloud 9 for that gem) to the Rose City Riveters creating one that says “We Are Family” over different LGBT related flags.

But the question stands as to why I would join all of these supporters groups when both my ability to get to games is limited because of where I live, and I wouldn’t get the full effect of the supporters group as I don’t sit in the stands during matches?

Because I want the NWSL to thrive. I want this league to celebrate 10 years and then 20 and one day 100 years of being in existence. To get there investments have to be made, teams need to grow and yes some might step off the pitch at the end of a season and never walk on again. But most of all fans have to show up, be involved and hold the clubs accountable. Supporters groups are a great way to facilitate that.

Often times supporters groups are in the best position to offer constructive criticism to their clubs. As the issues swirl around Sky Blue FC, their own supporters group, Cloud 9, has been a strong voice of accountability for the club.

Offering my money to these groups is a small gesture to help them survive and grow. But it is something I can do to help today. I hope the tweets I put out and this piece nudge those not in supporters groups to join. Or at least think about the reasons why you might or might not want to.

I asked on Twitter for those who are in supporters groups to tell me why they joined. I think the only fitting way to wrap this up is to share some of their stories.

https://twitter.com/JeanineHoffman/status/1107770615434366977

Where in the World is Raquel Rodriguez?

Posted on by RJ Allen

Raquel Rodriguez is under contract with Sky Blue FC, but has yet to make an official public appearance with the team. According to sources, this is not a coincidence, but an intentional break between player and team.

Rodriguez was re-signed in the offseason, with Sky Blue exercising their option to renew her contract. And in their preseason roster announcements, she has been listed as rostered. Moreover, unlike some players who have been listed as NYR (not yet reported), Rodriguez’s name has been unfootnoted. By all official accounts, she is part of the team.

And yet, there is no official documentary proof of this fact. No photographs, no comments on the record, nothing. What’s more, not only has Rodriguez did not make an appearance in Sky Blue’s first preseason match this weekend, she was not even present for the game. This is despite suggestions from her social media that she spent the day exercising elsewhere in town.

And this is the persistent conundrum. According to her social media accounts, Rodriguez spent a significant portion of the offseason training in New Jersey with her teammates. So why has she been MIA from official events?

The answer may come back to the extensively discussed problems between players, the front office, and the coaching staff. The background problems with the organization are well known, and seem to have played a significant role in a number of offseason departures. And Backline’s RJ Allen reported in January that problems extended to the head coach, who may have alienated some key players.

According to my reporting, Rodriguez is unhappy in New Jersey. One source familiar with the situation told me that she wants to avoid causing problems for her teammates, but also has no intention of spending another season at Sky Blue. This source suggested that the media blackout is an attempt to keep the issue under the radar while alternatives are explored. The first choice seems to be a trade within the league. But with time running out, Rodriguez may look abroad for other options. However, another source cautioned that the situation is still up in the air, and told me that arrangements to keep Rodriguez at Sky Blue might still be made.

I reached out to Sky Blue for comment on this story, but did not receive a response.

Given the persistent speculation that the future may not be long for Sky Blue as an organization, it shouldn’t be particularly surprising that many players are looking into other options. The increasing coverage of the team’s player support infrastructure also makes clear why a longtime member of the squad might be frustrated.

But for now, with everyone playing close to the vest, we may just have to wait for concrete news to emerge.

Update: We have been told Rodriguez was at the game but was not on the bench for the match. As of now this claim is unconfirmed but we felt it was worth mentioning.

Backline Chat: Becca Moros, Just for the GIFs

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Welcome to our Backline Soccer slack chat for the week. It’s been a long cold winter, but the NWSL is finally on its way back, and we are excited to get back into the swing of things.

We’re going to start things off with the preseason. We’ve had some roster trimming already, but most teams still have a lot to do before they’re down to fighting weight. What have you seen so far that looks interesting? Any teams that look poised for big things?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): Houston’s new head coach James Clarkson releasing players he knew he wouldn’t want early to give them a chance to go to another team instead of keeping them for practice is something that stood out to me. It’s a small thing but it shows a shift.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): I’m surprised by the recent addition of Caitlin Farrell in Orlando. I didn’t expect her here, and a talent like her should make the competition for starting striker when the national team players are in France something to watch.

Charles Olney: Yeah, the Houston thing seemed like a nice move. Let people know where they actually stand; don’t just keep them around for the sake of keeping them around. As you say, it’s a small thing but it’s at least a signal that Clarkson might be on the right track.

Luis Hernandez: I was a little bummed to see Nickolette Driesse gone in NC. I had hoped she would find a way to stick with an NWSL team. Hopefully, she finds a team overseas.

Charles Olney: In theory, I like what they’re trying to do up at Washington. They still don’t really have any defenders, but at least from these opening games, it seems like there might be some more coherence to how they set up.

From reports, Sullivan has been working as a deep-lying playmaker with Huster doing the tackling in front of her. That has a lot of potential, and might be important for getting Sullivan back on track.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I like the sound of that.

RJ Allen: It’s really hard with so little of the information to see in person. Some times preseason games are live tweeted but until we see some real soccer being played it’s hard for me to judge much of it.

Charles Olney: Luis, for Orlando, what are your thoughts about their midfield (or lack thereof)? On the most recent roster, they have a total of three (3) midfielders who aren’t college draftees or non-roster invitees. I know they’ve gotten by without much of a midfield for a couple years now, but…are they really going to keep this up?

Luis Hernandez: I think the Pride are deeper at midfield than how it’s listed on the roster. Camila is listed as a forward for example. I also really liked what I saw when Abby Elinsky was on the pitch for the team. I think there are two things to consider, 1) Dani Weatherholt is the veteran on the team who needs to step up, 2) Coach Marc Skinner’s message that he’s focused on developing the players he has to work with.

Charles Olney: It will certainly be interesting to see how they set up. Skinner has a good track record, and I’ll be curious to see what he does with the team.

Luis Hernandez: He mentions his time in Birmingham City where he had a starting goalkeeper who was 17 and he believes will eventually get time with the Lionesses in the future.

Charles Olney: I was a big Sermanni fan, and thought he managed to make an unbalanced roster work pretty well in 2017, but it didn’t seem like he had any great answers last year. And Elinsky is a nice point for Orlando. I wrote a piece about replacement level players, and Elinsky is a great example of someone who probably isn’t (at the moment) good enough to start regularly, but who can still add a lot of value by plugging gaps. And if you’ve got someone willing to work, there’s always potential to grow.

Luis Hernandez: The Pride will definitely have a new playing style which I’m curious how well it will work out.

Kat Farris (@farrisphotos): Labbe is back in NWSL with North Carolina.

Allison Cary: Yeah, happy to see Labbe back. And curious to see what role she plays in North Carolina.

Charles Olney: Any other thoughts about rosters? There hasn’t been much movement this offseason, but Washington has picked up some Australians. Dagny is back in Portland. Houston signed Sophie Schmidt recently. Anything that jumps to mind as potentially significant?

RJ Allen: I am very interested to see if Sky Blue has a defense this year with the move they made with Washington.

Luis Hernandez: The only announced preseason match with the Courage will be more measuring stick than anything else.

Charles Olney: Yeah, Sky Blue has to be one of the biggest question marks.

RJ Allen: I do not believe 538 is near the mark on how many points Sky Blue will have but I think they end up with more than in 2018.

Charles Olney: Looking at the roster, they’re actually not that bad in theory. But how will the group play together? How much are players willing to invest? Can they find a way to band together to solve problems when they pop up?

Allison Cary: Looking at the roster, they didn’t look that bad last year.

Charles Olney: Exactly.

RJ Allen: Allison is correct.

Charles Olney: I could easily see them hanging right there with the pack all season. They won’t lose almost anyone to the World Cup. And if the team spirit is high, they could scrounge plenty of points here and there. But if things start out bad, it’s easy to see everyone just hanging their heads and waiting for the axe to fall.

Allison Cary: Especially if things don’t change with the off-the-field situation. Or at least, don’t change enough.

Kat Farris: I had to reread that. I was having flashbacks of 2018 Pride

Luis Hernandez: I think the early part of the schedule favors Sky Blue and they could get a favorable result. I’m not going to bet the farm on a win just yet.

RJ Allen: I am a little surprise we’re not seeing more movement. Trades aren’t the most common thing in the NWSL but they happen more than they have this off season.

Allison Cary: Yeah, it’s been really quiet.

Charles Olney: Do you think it has something to do with it being a World Cup year? Maybe everyone is more focused on bolstering their ranks and not as worried about topline moves?

Luis Hernandez: Okay, RJ has a point, but I would say that traditional sellers like Orlando have started to switch things up and are holding assets more. Maybe GMs in the league are preparing for beyond 2019 with *whispers* expansion…

Kat Farris: Are national allocations official yet?

RJ Allen: Yes. They have been out for a few weeks.

Charles Olney: Speaking of which, what do people think about the allocations?

RJ Allen: Overall I wonder why the number is so low. They are able to have 4 or 5 more players allocated than they have. Which in a World Cup year you’d think you’d want those few players who might make the roster to already be on the payroll.

Luis Hernandez: There are limited allocations, I don’t know how many are called out in the CBA, but maybe the federation needs to be selective.

RJ Allen: They have a range they can pick from and from what I read they went with the minimum.

Luis Hernandez: I wonder how the lawsuit will eventually impact the CBA or future CBA negotiations

Charles Olney: And of those selected, it’s certainly hard to explain why Allie Long, for example, is still allocated and Davidson is not…assuming that you’re looking purely at value to the national team. But it’s pretty clear they’re looking at things beyond that. The question is whether that’s okay.

Luis Hernandez: I think Davidson needs to prove more to Ellis that she deserves it. Jane Campbell for example got allocated early without showing much

RJ Allen: It is odd that Morgan Brian is and Davidson isn’t, Long being another. But maybe Ellis is less sold on Davidson to the World Cup than we all think?

Kat Farris: It always amazes me how much of soccer revolves around not soccer

Luis Hernandez: I think it’s more contractual. That’s all I can think of which would explain it.

Kat Farris: Maybe they’re waiting to see a few more games from Tierna since coming back from injury?

Charles Olney: It seems pretty obvious to me that allocations are treated like a sinecure, where you have to really justify ‘taking one away,’ while a young player like Davidson can be effectively required to leave college early and then still not be granted an allocation.

Luis Hernandez: I really think the answer may be more simple than we realize. Like A-Rod being allocated for as long as she was.

RJ Allen: A-Rod had to be because she was on maternity leave. She couldn’t have it taken away during that window.

Luis Hernandez: Right. Maybe this is also a contractual allocation. Like maybe in the CBA there’s a provision for team veterans to have an extra allocation year before getting dropped

Charles Olney: It’s also weird that allocation decisions happen in December but aren’t announced until the spring and then don’t really ‘take effect’ until the start of the season in April. All of which is to say: the allocation system is terrible.

But, of course, the allocation system will be around a while longer, since it was bargained in the recent CBA. Which takes us nicely to our next topic…

What is going on with the US National Team and US Soccer?

RJ Allen: The difficulties the USWNT and USSF are having really do highlight the issues with the two very different systems the MNT and WNT work under.

The problem is neither party can control the reasons the two systems are so different. Which makes cases like this that much harder.

Luis Hernandez: RJ hit the nail right on the head.

Charles Olney: I think that’s an important point. It’s pretty clear to me that the system is not working well, and that US Soccer has some obligation to do more than they are currently doing. But it’s also clear that there’s not really a simple solution. Given the different dynamics, any treatment is necessarily going to look very different across the two teams.

RJ Allen: But why things like meal pay and flights are different is just USSF being cheap on the women’s side. On top of being plain stupid when it comes to marketing and things like kits.

Luis Hernandez: If player compensation was exactly the same between the men and women, there would be serious impacts in the league.

Allison Cary: Yeah, there are some things that are related to the different contracts/systems and some things that I think that USSF just thinks they can get away with.

Charles Olney: Exactly. US Soccer does actually have some decent arguments in a few places. But it’s incredibly hard to take their side overall when they’re so obviously failing to meet minimal standards in the places where it would be really easy to do so.

Luis Hernandez: I like that USSF now uses charter planes to move the USWNT like they do for the men. I dislike that USSF doesn’t think a women’s open cup is worth having. I had to get that in.

Charles Olney: RJ, can you develop that point about the kits a little more? It’s blown up a bit on twitter in the last 24 hours, but is worth digging into since it’s such a good demonstration.

RJ Allen: US Soccer’s issue is they are just flat out bad at some things. Right now if you go to their website you can’t buy a women’s kit. And men’s kits are not able to have three stars.

They are leaving a ton of money on the table by holding the kits back until May for the women and not allowing men’s cut kits to have three stars at all.

Charles Olney: I bought one of the three star kits a couple years ago when they were available. But if I remember correctly it took them almost a year after the 2015 tournament to actually make them. And now they’re unavailable again.

Allison Cary: I was just talking to a male friend earlier this week who wants to buy a three-star kit and is just waiting for them to come out.

RJ Allen:  I do not understand the argument I’ve seen made that it will “confuse” people to see a men’s cut jersey with three stars. Of all the arguments to pick, that is the dumbest.

Luis Hernandez: I’m more than happy to correct anyone that would confuse a men’s three star kit if they thought that was for the men’s team

Allison Cary: I didn’t even know that argument existed and that is the worst.

Luis Hernandez: Not to give the federation any breaks, but is that also on Nike?

RJ Allen: Nike has not had this issue with other countries though, Luis.

Charles Olney: My understanding is that Nike is the one making the choices about what to make available. But my understanding is also that huge organizations like US Soccer has the ability to discuss marketing strategy with Nike. Basically, if they genuinely cared about getting their product out, it would be out.

Luis Hernandez: The kit supplier should know better when it’s the like of Nike. I’m assuming they want to make money selling WNT gear.

RJ Allen: They are assuming there is no market or a market not worth investing in. And then saying “see there is nothing here” to not have to do more work in growing that market. For an org that loves money, both Nike and USSF, I do not understand the choices in kits or marketing.

Allison Cary: Sexism over money? It’s like the sexism is so embedded that, as RJ said, they’re convinced they won’t sell without any proof that’s true. Like you could be making money but your sexism is preventing you from being logical.

Charles Olney: Which really brings us around the core of the problem with all of these arguments about equality, market demand, revenue, and so forth. When you have institutions that are uninterested or unwilling in putting in the work to grow, develop, and sell a product, that product is obviously going to struggle more than if you have an enthusiastic actor trying to get everyone involved. With so many of these conversations, we’re talking about years, decades, of neglect. Which makes it impossible to assess what ‘really’ should be going on.

We saw 60,000 turn up for a women’s soccer match in Spain this weekend. We’ve seen huge numbers in Mexico. We’ve seen some of the big European countries selling out their pre-World Cup matches. Those are all great signs. But they’re also a reminder that there is potentially a LOT of demand, but demand which doesn’t have clear avenues for expression a lot of the time.

Allison Cary: I know a lot of people who are soccer fans. They watch men’s soccer because it is accessible, and they would support women’s soccer, but they feel it is such a struggle to get access.

Luis Hernandez: But are we underestimating the popularity of soccer in other parts of the world. I find a lot of people across the board that still have a hangup on watch/supporting a sport because it’s played by women

Allison Cary: I’m by no means trying to say those people don’t exist, I just think that we shouldn’t assume everyone is like that. When I was in England, there were plenty of old, white men who watched the Chelsea women’s games. And I spoke to more who said they would watch the matches if they were on TV or go to games if they were played at the same stadium as the men.

Luis Hernandez: There should be more fans of sports that watch/support the game regardless of the gender of the players.

Allison Cary: I also met people who automatically dismissed women’s soccer simply because it was played by women, so I’m not trying to say everyone would watch it if it were available, but it would matter.

Kat Farris: You can’t sell a product only the dedicated few know exists and expect to increase your market/grow the game

Charles Olney: I think that it’s absolutely true that there are a lot of soccer fans who aren’t realistically available for women’s soccer marketing. They have expectations and aren’t interested in changing them. But it’s also true that the worldwide soccer audience is unbelievably large, and you don’t need to persuade everyone. Just getting the people on the margins, who might be willing to take a look, could go a long way.

And of course social expectations do change, even for people who seem dyed-in-the-wool. I say this as someone with family in Atlanta who cared 0.00% about soccer until a couple years ago and NEVER would have thought it was possible that they’d follow the sport.

Luis Hernandez: I was going to say something on a lack of a league TV deal, but I didn’t want to go off the rails.

Charles Olney: A topic for another week, for sure.

Alright, let’s take a little time to get back to things on the pitch before we close up for the week.

Since we last chatted, the US completed the SheBelieves Cup. It didn’t go well. But it also wasn’t a disaster. How is everyone feeling about the team at this point?

RJ Allen: I do not for the life of me understand why Sam Mewis is not starting every game.

Charles Olney: I’ve been a mild skeptic in the “Mewis would fix everything” debates. But even so, I completely agree. I don’t think she’d fix everything, but she sure would help.

RJ Allen: I think Dunn is a great player but she has been made into a pure attacker and her defending during a World Cup scares me. Ellis has to find another outside back and hope O’Hara stays healthy.

Allison Cary: I completely agree on the Dunn point.

Luis Hernandez: I’m not a believer in Rose being a starter when we have the roster at full strength. I would rather see Mewis, Ertz and Horan.

RJ Allen: I do wonder overall why the USWNT pool of outside backs is as weak as I think we’ve ever seen it.

Charles Olney: It is weird. I feel like two years ago we were marveling at all the young exciting fullbacks who were coming up. And they’ve pretty much all flamed out.

RJ Allen: Honestly if Kristie Mewis hadn’t gotten hurt, I wouldn’t have minded her getting a look.

Charles Olney: I suppose it’s also worth noting that we’d arguably be having a different conversation if Hinkle had decided that she was okay wearing a pride jersey.

Luis Hernandez: Accurate.

Allison Cary: Yep.

RJ Allen: Hinkle showed herself not to be someone the team could depend on. That is the biggest USWNT sin.

Luis Hernandez: I don’t feel good that Short didn’t get playing time.

Charles Olney: With Short, I have to imagine there’s something about how she’s doing in training. Because it’s such an obvious HUGE problem right now, and based on her form of a year or so ago, it seems obvious that she should be getting some time. But she did miss a lot of time last year, and I’m not sure she ever really got back to her peak for Chicago. So maybe she just has genuinely lost a step and it’s been obvious in training?

RJ Allen: I do still wish the US would call up the eligible outside backs on each team and just give them a go. Honestly just try everyone and see who sticks. Becca Moros just for the gifs.

Luis Hernandez: I think club play is going to favor more for those bubble roster players and perhaps we’ll see someone surprise us and make the jump to the national team.

Charles Olney: [Whispers]: Sofia Huerta?

RJ Allen: Charles. Don’t be mean. Houston doesn’t even play her as an outside back.

Charles Olney: I mean, she still can’t really defend, but…what evidence do we have that Ellis cares about that? Is all I’m saying.

RJ Allen: Honestly have HAO play outside back. At least she would be good for team chemistry.

Charles Olney: I detect no lies there.

RJ Allen: One last thing I want to throw out there is the fact that the US Soccer Hall of Fame vote is going to happen soon. And there are some USWNT players up for possible selection.

Eligible Players: David Beckham | Gregg Berhalter | Carlos Bocanegra | Shannon Boxx | Edson Buddle | Rachel Buehler Van Hollebeke | Lori Chalupny | Lauren Cheney Holiday | Steve Cherundolo | Brian Ching | Kenny Cooper | Jeff Cunningham | Todd Dunivant | Kevin Hartman | Frankie Hejduk | Thierry Henry | Stuart Holden | Eddie Johnson | Chris Klein | Karina LeBlanc | Amy LePeilbet | Eddie Lewis | Lori Lindsey | Stephanie Lopez Cox | Pablo Mastroeni | Clint Mathis | Heather Mitts | Jaime Moreno | Ben Olsen | Pat Onstad | Heath Pearce | Troy Perkins | Steve Ralston | Cat Reddick Whitehill | Donovan Ricketts | Leigh Ann Robinson Brown | Tony Sanneh | Homare Sawa | Kate Sobrero Markgraf | Bakary Soumare | Taylor Twellman | Aly Wagner | Abby Wambach | Josh Wolff

Luis Hernandez: Excellent point RJ.

RJ Allen: Look, Boxx, Chalupny, Holiday, Sawa, Markgraf and Wambach should get in, in a landslide. But they likely won’t other than Wambach.

Luis Hernandez: I wouldn’t be repping Orlando right, if I also didn’t mention Tiffany Roberts who now coaches at UCF. She’s on the ballot in the Veteran category

Charles Olney: The US Soccer Hall of Fame is a weird institution, covering the men (a not very successful group of players compared to the rest of the world), the women (the best group of players in the world), and foreign players who have had a big impact here. It’s just kind of hard to even comprehend how you can jam all those together in a coherent way.

Allison Cary: Very true.

Charles Olney: Like, Amy LePeilbet was one probably top 20 at her position in the whole world, right? But she’s like 12th on this list for women who deserve induction. Compare to someone like Carlos Bocanegra, who was one of the KEY players for the US men over a full decade, and one of our most successful players in a top European league. But…at his best, he was a useful player for a mediocre Fulham team.

I also saw someone pointing out that when/if Markgraf gets inducted, the entire starting XI for the 99ers will be inducted. Which seems bizarre. How can the whole team be in the Hall of Fame? Except, of course they’re all in. They’re all ridiculously good!

RJ Allen: It is not enough to have been great during your years of international and domestic play if you’re on the women’s side. The women have five current forwards that would make the hall of fame for nearly every other country in the world. It’s not enough to have simply defined your position internationally during your time on the national team, you have to be the best to have ever played it.

Either the standard for the men seeking induction needs to be raised to meet the level of Hamm and Overbeck and the rest of the supremely talented women who have made it into the Hall or the standard for the women needs to come back down to earth.

Charles Olney: To be honest, I don’t really see it getting worked out. I think it will just continue to stumble along like a drunken sailor, getting enough of the big decisions right for people to continue talking about it, but not enough right to be a fully credible institution.

And with that, we will close things out for today. Thanks for reading everyone. And as always, let us know if you have any topics you’d like to hear us discuss in future weeks!

The NWSL Is A Restrictor Plate League But It Doesn’t Have to Be

Posted on by RJ Allen

In auto racing, there are times when cars are forced to use a restrictor plate over the air intake to limit the power of the engine. It’s often done under the promise of safety. It is too unsafe to let the full power of the engines out at once. To keep a more even keel to things, they restrict some power.

The NWSL often feels as though US Soccer, the NWSL front office and to a lesser extent some of the ownership groups are perfectly happy to keep a restrictor plate on the league.

They don’t want too much growth nor to have conditions and salaries growing too quickly. Not only is there a minimum salary of $16,538 and a $421,500 salary cap put on the total roster, but a team maximum just to make sure no one wants to pay their star something crazy like $47,000 a year.

The NWSL wants a league full of Portland Thorns while making sure that teams like Sky Blue FC and the Washington Spirit aren’t blown out of the water. The league does need to monitor its growth and make sure it doesn’t spin out of control. But it also has to allow the key teams of the league to move the league forward without standing in their way. While there are ways for teams not directly connected to MLS groups to grow and compete, the tactic of holding the league back to make sure teams who, if we’re being honest, are run about as well as your high school’s 9th grade production of Our Town, might not be the best long term bet the league could make.

So what do I think the NWSL should do to help take the restrictor plate off of the league? While that isn’t an easy answer or a quick path, I think there are some steps they have to take if they want to see growth that keeps the league moving forward.

1) They need higher overall league standards

Having locker rooms with showers, not playing games on college fields, having proper housing for players, I could go on but the league needs to both create a set of league minimums that are higher while also taking a hard stance when teams fail to live up to those standards.

If the league wants to grow it has to improve the standards year or year in meaningful ways. Holding the Utah’s and Portland’s of the league back to make sure that teams like Sky Blue and Washington don’t have to spend to much more money only holds progress back.

2) Bring Designated Players to the NWSL

For those who do not know, in MLS a designated player is a player that basically doesn’t count against the salary cap.

The NWSL should add something similar to their rule book. Give each team one or two players who do not count against the current $421,500 salary cap. If Orlando wants to pay Marta $1,000,000 a year to play in the NWSL, let them. If Ada Hegerberg can be brought to Utah or Seattle or Portland for $200,000 a year? Let the owners pay for it.

3) Let there be (some) free agency

Right now if the team you’re on offers you a contract and you decline – well they keep your rights and there is always overseas, right? Allowing players to become free agents if they are unable to come to an agreement with their clubs when their contracts end would give the players a little more choice and prevent some of the rights holding that teams have engaged in in the past that forced players to go overseas.

4) USSF needs to back off

USSF controls far too much in this league. They control all USWNT players contracts that play in the NWSL, they pay them and as much loyalty as you can ascribe to the relationship, it all goes to USSF and away from the club teams. Sam Mewis might love North Carolina, but the North Carolina Courage do not control her contract nor do they sign her paycheck.

There are ways USSF can keep supporting the league in terms of giving each team financial support without iron-fisted control being demanded in return.

The NWSL is not a bad league. It is not a league that will fold end of the season. But there is no doubt it is being held back. Teams that are unable or unwilling to move forward with the pace of the other teams, a federation that wants a 9 month long training camp for it’s stars, simple lack of some basic amenities of other American sports all coalesces to tie weights to the league’s cleats.

The NWSL has lasted 7 years by growing in a careful progressing as they put together their new engine. They have done slow and steady laps around the track. Not going to fast, being very careful on the turns. It’s time the throttle was opened up a bit and we can see just how well the car was put together.

Route Two Soccer: Replacement Level in the NWSL – Part 2

Posted on by RJ Allen

Last week I discussed the theory of replacement level valuation, and described some general ideas about how it can be usefully employed to think about the NWSL. This week, I want to dig into things a bit more, with four observations about player value in the league, informed by the idea of replacement level.

1. Setting replacement level in a precarious league

Replacement level is not static. If overall talent levels improve, so should the replacement level. And in a league like the NWSL, with a precarious employment structure, the movement is probably more significant than in other more settled systems.

While early retirements are growing less common, it remains true that plenty of good players leave the game for reasons that have little to do with their abilities on the pitch. Christina Gibbons’ recent retirement is a good example. She wasn’t forced out by lack of quality; she left because the hassles of trying to maintain a professional career for little money and no amenities seem to have overwhelmed the desire to play.

A league which can’t necessarily compete with economic opportunities in the private sector will naturally suffer more turnover and loss of talent than one where players make hundreds of thousands as a baseline. That in turn means that marginal player availability is often determined more by the willingness to accept a lack of compensation than by a strict accounting of ability. As a result, simply showing up and turning in 90 minutes is generally worth more in the NWSL than it would be in a league with fairer compensation.

However, as time goes on and standards improve, more players are willing to stick it out. This means that replacement level is going up over time. A player who was modestly above replacement level in 2014 might not be any longer, simply because the overall tide is rising.

2. Measuring modest contributions

The concept of replacement level is a useful device to square some circles within discussions about NWSL talent. Too often, conversations exist in a framework where a player is either excellent or useless, without any clear sense of the space in between. But in fact, the league is full of players who are contributing modest value, without necessarily rising to the level of average.

In a league with nine teams, there are probably only about 50 players who could reasonably be described as average or better. But 188 players received minutes last year. How do we account for the players in the middle of the pack? Here I’m thinking of players like Adriana Leon, Joanna Lohman, Christen Westphal, Amy Rodriguez, Rebecca Quinn, Thembi Kgatlana, Brooke Elby, etc.

With any players, it’s obviously important to look at context. What did their team ask of them, how well did they fulfill their role, what alternatives were there? What sort of potential do they have? Obviously, Andi Sullivan is a different sort of player from Brooke Elby, and it wouldn’t be helpful to pretend their total contributions could be measured by one universal metric. At the same time, if you want to tell the story of the season, it’s useful to have some form of cross-contextual comparison.

So with players like this, one useful perspective might be to emphasize that they logged important minutes, and provided meaningful value, to the extent that they performed above the replacement level, while also recognizing that their contributions were probably below the average production levels in the role. This can then be supplemented with more specific evaluations.

For example, while Elby and Sullivan both contributed some value, Elby was only expected to be a role player. She was selected 23rdd in the Breakers dispersal draft—almost literally the definition of a replacement player. That she contributed real positive value helped her teams enormously. Sullivan, meanwhile, was the top pick in the draft, and Washington was counting on her to step into the pro game immediately. While she wasn’t hopeless (she did contribute real value), merely being above replacement level was extremely damaging for the Spirit who needed more.

Sullivan clearly has the higher ceiling, and likely will have many strong seasons to come. But in 2018, her performance hurt Washington a lot because they were counting on more.

3. Replacement level variations across roles (the problem of too many good forwards)

Another important feature of an analysis informed by replacement level: emphasis on the distribution of talent across roles. Specifically, the imbalance between attacking and defensive talent. Because the reality is that the overwhelming percentage of top-quality players in the league fill attacking roles. This is partly a feature of the game itself—where individual brilliance matters more in the attack, while team structure matters more in the defense—but it’s also a consequence of the developmental structure in the US system. With college still the dominant training system, players are free to continue as forwards long past when they might have been forced to switch in a world where the pipeline narrowed earlier.

Whatever the cause, it’s clear that the league is stacked with attacking talent. Unfortunately for the players below the top tier, this significantly reduces their value, because replacement level is fluid and depends on the actual distribution of talent.

For a given team, their 4th or 5thh choice striker is probably going to be close to replacement level. She is the player who can perform satisfactorily and do a job, but is well outside the top talents in the league. But look at even a team as hapless as Sky Blue and realize that they have Naho Kawasumi, Carli Lloyd, Savannah McCaskill, and Imani Dorsey. Not to mention Jen Hoy. And McKenzie Meehan. And Paige Monaghan and Kyra Carusa coming in.

These are all very good players. But when you do the same exercise across the league, you realize that every team is objectively stacked in their attack. Unfortunately, though, ‘stacked’ is ultimately a relative term. The problem for Sky Blue isn’t a lack of excellent players in the attack; the problem is that teams like North Carolina and Chicago are even more absurdly blessed.

But this means that there are dozens of genuinely great attacking players who not only can’t get a regular starting job, they’re not even particularly close to one.

Adriana Leon is particularly apposite example here. When the Boston Breakers folded, she entered the dispersal draft and fell to the 18thh pick. That felt low to many people, who pointed out her six goals for Boston in 2016. When she found no playing time in New Jersey and was eventually traded to Seattle for a 4th round pick, there was more outcry. A seasoned striker, a Canadian international no less, had to be worth more than a low draft pick.

But thinking about it in terms of replacement level can help clarify things a bit. Because the reality is: six goals in a season notwithstanding, Leon simply doesn’t have that impressive a record over her career. In 83 NWSL games, she notched 10 goals. That’s not nothing, but given the same opportunity to occupy a roster space, many other players might have found the net far more often, or contributed in other ways. Ultimately, strikers just aren’t scarce in the NWSL, while opportunities at striker very much are.

None of which is to suggest that Leon isn’t a good player. She certainly is. It’s just that she’s not clearly comparatively better than the many other good players who can fill the same role. Probably every team in the league would be happy to have her, but none of them would be willing to give up much (or any) value to do so. That’s because they’re not assessing her talent on an absolute scale; they’re looking at it comparatively.

Compare this to defense, and things look very different. Here, the replacement level is much higher as teams struggle to fill out their roster with players who can plausibly handle the job.

This is a big part of the reason why teams consistently try to shift attacking players back into more defensive roles. They’re trying to take advantage of their overabundance in one area to bolster themselves in another space. And it’s why positional flexibility is very helpful for marginal players. The ability to step into multiple roles increases their potential value over replacement.

4.Replacement level in a World Cup year

As we know, the World Cup takes place this summer. And just like in 2015, the NWSL will continue amidst the tournament, despite the removal of three dozen or so of its best players for a substantial chunk of the season. What’s more, the removal of talent is by no means balanced. Teams like North Carolina and Portland will lose most of their starting XIs, while Sky Blue, Washington, and Houston will be significantly less ravaged (as always, the wonderful NWSL roster sheets maintained by Jen Cooper are crucial here). To some extent this will have a balancing effect on the league, pushing everyone toward the middle.

But it also depends on how well teams manage their replacement markets. Team depth is always important, but especially in a season like this, when it will be significantly more tested. And it’s a reminder that ‘replacement level’ as an abstract concept is never quite the same as the actual replacement level for a specific team. Those that play the game well will assemble supporting casts that are better equipped to step into the breach. It’s a reason to pay special attention to the preseason this year, because that’s the time when the league’s replacement talent (recent college graduates, trialists, part-timers, etc.) have the chance to make their case.

Route Two Soccer: Replacement Level in the NWSL – Part 1

Posted on by RJ Allen

Sports analytics has evolved by leaps and bounds over the past three decades. Arguably the single most important concept undergirding that explosion has been the idea of ‘replacement level.’ Indeed, replacement level is so significant that it has gained usage outside of the sports world in a variety of business and economic contexts.

What is replacement level?

Put simply, replacement level defines the level of performance that is readily and freely available. In the baseball world, where it first gained widespread usage, replacement level is roughly the quality you would expect if you promoted a career minor leaguer to fill a roster spot.

Importantly, replacement level doesn’t mean zero value. A team full of replacement level players would still pick up the occasional point here and there; these players are still very good, just not quite good enough to make a normal roster. What’s more, performance is always within a range. A replacement level player won’t turn in exactly-replacement level performances every game. They’ll sometimes play well, and sometimes play dreadfully, but over time the median result will center on replacement.

To get a rough estimate of what a team full of replacement level players would look like, the 2016 Boston Breakers and 2018 Sky Blue FC seem to fit the bill. Now, both of those teams had players that are clearly better than replacement level. But they also likely had some below that level. And they also both performed toward the bottom of their potential.

Why replacement level is important

Replacement level is critical for understanding team building and player value. While it is not the only way to assess a player, it is probably the single most important way of characterizing their utility to a team. This is because it exists in a goldilocks position between two extremes: measuring the positive function of simply showing up, without overvaluing mediocre performance.

On the one side, it is preferable to a pure counting-stat approach, which merely adds up a player’s positive contributions. It is of course true that a player who scores three goals in a season has added value over what would have happened if no one had filled that position. But that’s not how it works. A player who scores three goals from several dozen excellent chances that were created by her teammates is actually hurting the team by squandering the chances that someone else might have converted. This is a critical opportunity cost of occupying a valuable active roster spot—the value lost because the spot couldn’t be occupied by someone else. Replacement level attempts to quantify that lost value by identifying what could reasonably be expected from freely-available talent.

This concept of ‘freely-available’ talent also shows why replacement value is superior to a second intuitive model: value above average. It’s admittedly tempting to measure players against average. A player who is below average is a drag on their team in some sense. In order to win more than you lose, you need your players to be above average.

The problem is that, by definition, not everyone can be above average. In fact, roughly half the players will be worse than average. So if one of your regulars is injured or suspended, it is very unlikely that you will be able to replace them with another above-average player. Far more likely, your replacement will be, well, replacement level. Which demonstrates that the ‘merely average’ player is actually providing significant value. Simply by showing up and performing at a sustainable level, they are helping their team.

Limitations of replacement level analysis

Having laid out the general theory of replacement level, it’s worth taking a moment to acknowledge three big caveats, and provide some explanation for why the concept is still worth using.

First, replacement level is an abstraction. In the real world, it depends on context. In particular, if your team has several excellent left backs, the actual ‘replacement level’ is much higher than it would be for a team with no cover. Nevertheless, in terms of league-wide player assessment, the abstraction is helpful for characterizing the value that a given player can contribute. Each individual team will want to make its own assessments of positional scarcity, but for comparing players across teams, replacement level is consistent.

Second, soccer is a dynamic game, and player performances can’t be easily disentangled. To start with an obvious example: Alex Morgan is one of the world’s best strikers, but if you don’t provide her any service, she isn’t going to contribute much value. That’s not her fault, and it would be strange to decide that Morgan was not a valuable player simply because the team around her was bad. And more broadly, there’s the reality that some players will play well in certain systems but flail in others. Some players will excel if given a limited responsibility, but fall apart if they’re asked to do more. A dedicated defensive player might be quite valuable in a team set up to play with a true #6, but terrible on a team that needs creativity from every midfielder. A good striker might be hopeless if forced to play as a fullback. Or vice versa.

None of that is a reason to disregard the concept, but it is a reason to be careful about drawing assessments too broadly. Value over replacement is best set up as a framework for assessing what actually did happen, but it won’t necessarily provide much perspective on what would have happened if things had been set up differently.

Third, soccer simply isn’t as amenable to analytic assessment as many other popular sports. The state of soccer analytics is miles ahead of where it was a few decades ago, but even at the top levels of the men’s game, where data is much more plentiful and quite a bit of money is being spent, things are still far hazier than in sports like baseball or basketball.

Those complexities mean that it will never be straightforward to assign a single value to a given player, and any assessment along those lines should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Nevertheless, as a matter of theory-crafting, the concept is still useful, and it’s worth taking seriously as a framework for considering player performance.

Having laid out the framework, I’ll post the second part of this piece next week, which will discuss how replacement-level can help organize our thoughts on the league.

Slack Chat: The Off Season Drums On

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Welcome to our Backline Soccer slack chat for Valentine’s Day week. We’re going to cover the US National Team, some NWSL news, and a bit of global soccer as well.

To kick things off, we just got the USWNT roster for the SheBelieves Cup. Anyone have thoughts? Mostly as expected or were you at all surprised?

Allison Cary (@findingallison): Glad to see Zerboni in the mix. Otherwise, I’m not really surprised.

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I do not hate the defenders. They are all, you know, defenders.

Charles Olney: Well, except Crystal Dunn. But it’s a good point.

RJ Allen: Dunn is as much of a defender in an Ellis system as anything else.

Charles Olney: The big potential piece of ‘news’ is the absence of Morgan Brian (probably competing with Zerboni and Colaprico and maybe Sullivan for the final midfield spot).

RJ Allen: No, I don’t think Ellis is really in the mood for much shaking the tree right now. I think she likes who she likes. I know she is a big favorite of yours Charles but I am ok with her not taking with who we have.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I don’t feel like Brian is critical. I’d rather see Zerboni get time.

Charles Olney: I actually still think Brian still might be the most likely to go to France, and that this is more about giving the others a chance to prove themselves. But I very much agree that it’s a close thing, and I wouldn’t be torn up about one of the others getting the call.

You’d have to be a pretty cruel person to be angry about Colaprico or Zerboni getting a World Cup roster spot.

Allison Cary: Very true.

RJ Allen: We haven’t seen Ellis do that a lot though, have we? She isn’t one to normally not roster a player unless they are hurt or she wants to semi move on from them.

Anthony J Merced: She’s a straight shooter.

Charles Olney: Given Brian’s nagging injury issues, I could definitely see it as a ‘take it easy and we’ll see what else we’ve got’ choice. It would be odd to give her the start against France (while giving Colaprico no minutes in either game in January) and then completely remove her from the depth chart.

But y’all are right that Ellis doesn’t normally hide much in her roster choices. What you see is mostly what you’re going to get.

Luis Hernandez: (@radioactivclown): Plus once players fall from grace, it’s a quick drop.

Allison Cary: Agreed.

Luis Hernandez: I’m surprised that Morgan Brian isn’t going to go to France. I do think that decision has merit. She hasn’t been world class for a while.

Anthony J Merced: Not sure what happened with Brian in France but that 5 month stay didn’t produce all that much.

Charles Olney: I would actually posit that Brian was quite good toward the end of the season for Chicago. Not quite back to where she was in early 2016, but it’s the best I’ve seen from her in a while. So I’m not quite ready to set her aside completely.

Luis Hernandez: Also surprised by Casey Short but I guess Jill needed to put down someone else to play LB

RJ Allen: Short is a solid player. She might not be incredible but I think having her be so stable is a huge plus for her right now.

Anthony J Merced: But does she really have enough time to prove anything?

RJ Allen: When most of the other options have petered out? Yes. Who else are you going to take? Fox? Heurta?

Charles Olney: They’ve still got four months and a half dozen games before the tournament. I think that’s a decent amount of time to continue making assessments.

Luis Hernandez: I’m thinking for players like Short and Brian that Jill will look at club form to throw them a life line.

Charles Olney: Alright, so setting aside the marginal personnel issues, do people have predictions for how things will go at SheBelieves? Do you expect to see the US play better than their European tune ups last month? Does it matter if they don’t?

Luis Hernandez: For the rest, I don’t think club form will weigh as much

Allison Cary: I don’t think it matters that much if they don’t, but I’m inclined to think they will.

RJ Allen: I think the US will win all three. Maybe England gets a draw but I’m not sure of their form lately.

Anthony J Merced: Definitely expect them to play better. Aside from the Philly game they’ll be in better weather as well.

Luis Hernandez: I feel like England will give the US the most trouble.

Allison Cary: I agree. England is dangerous.

Anthony J Merced: English women’s team is a lot like the men’s team. There is talent to get excited about but for some reason they always seem to under perform in big games.

Luis Hernandez: England needs to stop scoring on themselves.

Charles Olney: I’ve been trying to watch more of the WSL now that I’m in a more convenient time zone, and I have to say: England has a lot more depth in their talent pool than they once did. I still don’t think they’re quite at the US level, but they’ve got a really solid group.

Luis Hernandez: I also think there are some injury questions with England.

RJ Allen: I don’t think England/France/Australia fears the US anymore in a way they had before. And that shows more and more as they play.

Allison Cary: I think England has a lot of talent but they have so many off the field problems they need to make sure they don’t isolate people.

Anthony J Merced: The US game is vulnerable due to bad leadership over the last four years. I think other teams know that and have taken the chance to get themselves together.

Charles Olney: I’ll also throw out there that, for all that we collectively sneered a bit at the Neville appointment, I think he’s done a pretty good job. Given the significant tactical inflexibility of the US, that could be an issue.

RJ Allen: I still disagree with his hiring on principal. But yes, he has done well.

Allison Cary: I’m with RJ on that.

Charles Olney: Yeah, co-sign.

Luis Hernandez: We’ve been talking a lot about England. Does this mean we are dismissing any chance Japan or Brazil have in SheBelieves?

Charles Olney: Yes.

Allison Cary: Yeah.

RJ Allen: Yes. Brazil and Japan have smallest chance of wins except against each other.

Charles Olney: Japan and Brazil are good enough to have a fighting chance, but I would be very surprised if they get more than a point from anyone but each other.

Luis Hernandez: I will admit that I wish I was better with knowing Japan.

RJ Allen: I think the International word of soccer is more stratified than 4 years ago. There is less division in tiers but more between them than before.

Luis Hernandez: As to Brazil, this seems like a turning point as I think the team will start to look away from Marta once this cycle is complete

Anthony J Merced: Dangerous on set-pieces is the best way to describe them.

Charles Olney: Let’s turn to the club side. RJ and I just recorded a 123rd Minute episode where we talked about the Sky Blue news, but do y’all have any thoughts on their announcement about improvements?

Anthony J Merced: This screams of politics and I can’t stand it. Murphy puts his wife there for a PR plug when in fact he should give up the team entirely.

Luis Hernandez: I wish there were more specifics. This wasn’t exactly what I was looking for or expected.

Charles Olney: My feeling: better than nothing, still too vague, way too late. They could have released this six months ago, and should be much further along in terms of concrete promises.

Allison Cary: It’s better than nothing but that’s about it.

Anthony J Merced: It’s too far along for something like this now.

Luis Hernandez: I agree with you guys. “Better than nothing” seems like the apt phrase.

Kat Farris (@farrisphotos): Can he though? I thought I read Murphy put his “piece” of Sky Blue in a blind trust when he became governor. Doesn’t that mean he has to stay hands off?

RJ Allen: He broke that when he called a player directly.

Kat Farris: But yes, that memo is all politics

Luis Hernandez: Could have used the memo to announce a change in the front office. Just saying.

Anthony J Merced: I can tell you from the Red Bull side that no one has reached out to them about use of their training facility. So it’s ridiculous that they aren’t exploring every option to make the improvements even temporarily.

Luis Hernandez: That would get the fan base hyped.

Kat Farris: 40% staff increase. 40% of what? If they were as bare bones as SM suggests 40% could be quite minimal

Luis Hernandez: And it could also be free labor and interns

Charles Olney: That is my concern. For another team, I might be willing to trust a vague promise. With Sky Blue, I want to put on my lawyer hat and scrutinize every possible loophole.

Anthony J Merced: The apathy from the fanbase outside of Sky Blue is also alarming. There has been coverage from major publications but it seems like people were more interested in the Crew SC moving to Austin than this issue.

RJ Allen: That is a good point.

Luis Hernandez: I also think that people expect the league to keep letting Sky Blue slide along. Since that’s what it seems has been happening

Kat Farris: And moving their admin offices closer to player housing screamed red flags to. It gave me flashbacks of overbearing nuns

Luis Hernandez: It may be that nobody in the Sky Blue organization is willing to think outside the box for solutions. Like the Reign moving to Tacoma.

Anthony J Merced: It’s one of the most frustrating situations I’ve ever seen in sports.

Charles Olney: Onto happier topics: we’ve had a bit of player movement news around the league, though not a huge amount. Do you have any teams that you think look particularly improved, or particularly in trouble at this point in the offseason?

RJ Allen: North Carolina is gonna run the table again.

Allison Cary: Yep.

Charles Olney: Even with all the players they’ll be losing for the World Cup? I’m not saying I disagree, but that’s a lot of players!

Kat Farris: Other than hiring a coach (finally), has Orlando even made any roster moves?

Luis Hernandez: I hate that Orlando seems like they are always close to last in making team announcements

Anthony J Merced: Orlando will prove to be the Dallas Cowboys of NWSL. Lots of hype but little results. lol

RJ Allen: That might be the best Orlando comparison I’ve heard Anthony.

Allison Cary: Sadly, I agree.

Charles Olney: Is 2019 the year that Chicago finally wins a playoff game?

RJ Allen: If Sam Kerr stays “4 goals in a match because I’m Sam Kerr that’s why” Sam Kerr, yes. (edited)

Luis Hernandez: Cart before the horse, the Red Stars need to make the playoffs. Other teams were close to getting in last year.

Anthony J Merced: I don’t think Chicago is going to make the playoffs. I think Utah will be up there.

Charles Olney: My #hottake is that the four teams that made the playoffs last year are overwhelming favorites to do so again this year.

Allison Cary: I agree with Charles.

Luis Hernandez: Utah and Houston have a chance to make playoffs

Allison Cary: I think Utah more than anyone has a chance to break into the top four.

RJ Allen: I would love Houston to grow, but I don’t see it realistically.

Charles Olney: In a season when so many players will miss half the year, there’s certainly more volatility. And Houston might be the best-placed to take advantage of that–since they’ll probably lose many fewer key players. But I still can’t see it.

Luis Hernandez: It’s too easy to think the same four make it back. The team rosters aren’t complete.

Anthony J Merced: I say NC, Seattle, Portland Utah in the playoffs.

Kat Farris: Orlando will make good showings in games where their national players are absent, and if Skinner can tame their egos when they are in town the team has a shot at that 4th place berth

Luis Hernandez: Kat’s take is hotter Charles.

Charles Olney: Alright, let’s talk a bit about international leagues. Anyone have thoughts on Australia? England? France? The Champions League?

RJ Allen: Sam Kerr is magic.

Charles Olney: I will admit that I have watched a grand total of one half of the W-League this year, so I can’t really comment there. But for those who have seen more, is there anyone who has really impressed? I mean, apart from Kerr, of course.

Kat Farris: And it’s a good thing Aussie has KerrBoom cuz their coaching ditch is a mind F

RJ Allen: I really think the FFA needs to do a better job at making their case of why they needed to change things. To me, the FFA’s vagueness screams of politics. It’s like Sky Blue, but bigger.

Charles Olney: Anyone have a prediction for Sydney v. Perth in the final?

Anthony J Merced: I think Perth steals it.

RJ Allen: Perth 3-1.

Luis Hernandez: I’m going to say Sydney just to take the other side of things.

Charles Olney: Like I said, I’ve been watching a bit of the FAWSL in England, and it’s great. They have a fantastic title race between Arsenal and Man City, who are both fascinating teams to watch. It makes me long for a global Champions League, where we could actually watch truly different styles of play clash against each other.

Luis Hernandez: Chelsea faded a bit recently. I’m glad Birmingham City was able to hold in the standing after the manager change

Charles Olney: Any Champions League predictions?

Luis Hernandez: Wolfsburg will beat Lyon at home.

Charles Olney: Bold. I caught Lyon-PSG this weekend. And even without them playing especially well on the day, it’s just ridiculous how good Lyon is. But Wolfsburg might give them a real game at least.

Alright, with that we’ll wrap up the chat this week. Thanks everyone, and see y’all soon!