Tag: NWSL

Route Two Soccer: Projecting the NWSL Season

Posted on by RJ Allen

Projecting performance is difficult, even for highly qualified people. For those of us who don’t have decades of experience under our belts, it’s even harder. To clarify that point, I want to talk today about a simple but powerful idea which has helped guide conversations in baseball, and then apply it to a soccer context.

The idea is this: what if you designed a projection system so simple that a monkey could use it? At the time when this was first discussed, Friends was still on the air, so the guy who came up with it called his system a ‘Marcel Projection.’

The way it works is: you take the last three years of performance. Combine them together, but weight the most recent year most heavily, the middle year less heavily, and the most distant year the least. Then divide by your denominator, and that’s your projection. Depending on what you’re projecting, you might want to add some small other tweaks to normalize the data, but that’s really just about all there is to it.

The system is designed to project individual player performance, which is relatively easy to do in baseball (which is filled with quantifiable statistics). But for soccer purposes, where such stats are less available (and less relevant) I want to pull the camera out wider to look at an even more basic unit: the team.

To that end, here’s a Marcel projection for the 2019 NWSL standings:

TeamPointsGoalsGAGD
North Carolina Courage48452124
Portland Thorns43382315
Chicago Red Stars3733276
Seattle Reign3633267
Orlando Pride313333-1
Utah Royals312325-2
Houston Dash273037-7
Washington Spirit212336-13
Sky Blue212946-17

Producing this projection took about three minutes of work. I entered the results from 2016-2018* into an Excel sheet, weighted the seasons by a 5/4/3 ratio, and then generated a result.**

My ‘projection’ knows almost nothing about these teams. It doesn’t know who the coach is, which players had breakout seasons, what trades were made, who is coming back from injury. It doesn’t know style of play. It doesn’t know that it’s a World Cup year. All it knows is the bare results from the last three years.

And yet, I would wager that this projection ends up being pretty close to accurate. In fact, it will probably beat the projections from a lot of very intelligent people, who know far more about all those issues I just listed.

That’s because human beings are absolutely full of unquestioned biases, of all sorts. We overrate some players, while underrating others. We overstate the importance of some events while failing to properly include others. And there is the classic problem of punditry: it’s fun to predict change and boring to predict continuation of the status quo.

Now, I certainly don’t mean to suggest that there is no value in expert analysis. I only want to lay a marker for how to judge assessments. Because in the current women’s soccer ecosystem, there’s almost no accountability. Pundits are free to make predictions, but not only is there no one checking back to see what they got right and wrong, there isn’t even a structure for measuring success.

So things like a simple Marcel system are useful, if only because they generate baselines against which people can measure themselves. It may not be exciting to predict that everything will more-or-less remain the same. But it does have the virtue of generally being true. And that’s something that everyone involved in this business can use a reminder of now and again.

I’ll put together my own real projection once the season gets closer. When I do so, I’ll certainly think about all the little details of player movement and development. I’ll look at the schedule. I’ll consider how teams will deal with losing their national team talent for the World Cup. And I’ll try my level-best to produce something that is accurate.

But, to be honest, there’s every chance that the dumb Marcel from this column will end up being more accurate than my clever prediction to come.

* For the purposes of this exercise, I’m treating Western New York/North Carolina and FCKC/Utah as continuous teams, despite the name and venue changes.

** Eagle-eyed readers will notice that the goals, goals allowed, and goal difference don’t quite add up. That’s partly due to rounding errors (e.g. Orlando are actually projected to score 32.5 goals and concede 33.25, which is a GD of -1, even though both are listed as 33), but is mostly because the data includes two seasons of the Boston Breakers, who conceded rather a lot of goals. If you want, you could control for that and subtract one goal per every 24 that a team is expected to score.

Backline Chat: Welcome to a World Cup Year

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Hello, and welcome to our first Slack Chat of 2019. I hope everyone had a good new year, and is excited for a big year. To kick things off, I thought we should start with some fun stuff before turning to some of the more depressing elements in recent news. So…it’s a World Cup year! What is everyone most excited for in 2019?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I really am looking forward to watching the first time teams in the World Cup.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I’m excited to see Scotland and I’m excited to see if France can keep playing quality football.

RJ Allen: Kim Little on the world’s stage? Yes, please.

Allison Cary: My sister is going to school in Scotland so it’s particularly exciting for this to be going on while she’s there.We’re hoping to catch a game in France.

Charles Olney: My honest answer is simply that I’m excited for the incredible opportunity to be in Europe this summer, which means I’ll be able to see a bunch of the World Cup in person. And I’m obviously excited for the chance to see the US make a deep run. But in terms of storylines, I think there’s just so much potential. Could France finally win a title? Could England or Australia take that next step? Could some of these new rising powers like Spain and Italy make the leap into the inner circle? Can some of the new teams put their mark on the tournament.

RJ Allen: I have a lot of questions about the World Cup but you’re right, there are some really amazing storylines.

Allison Cary: So much potential.

Charles Olney: I’d love to see the US win, but I have to admit that a new winner would probably make for a more interesting tournament.

RJ Allen: US, Norway, Germany, and Japan are the only winners. It would be nice to see another name added to the list.

Allison Cary: If France wins, per a previous slackchat, I’m obligated to move to France. I’m not opposed to that lol.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): I’m looking forward to the matches and if New Zealand can get out of the group. Plus how the NWSL will handle absences.

Charles Olney: If it were to be a first-time winner, who do people think is most likely? France is probably the obvious pick, especially given their recent victory over the US, but are people still high on some of the other big teams?

RJ Allen: I would have guessed Australia two weeks ago.

Allison Cary: I would say Australia but I’m not sure with the latest coaching drama.

RJ Allen: Now? I don’t know. France or maybe England? I’d love to see Canada get one for Sinc.

Allison Cary: England maybe? I’m not sure if they’re ready to go all the way.

RJ Allen: I really would like a team other than the US to win. I think it’s better for soccer world wide if other teams can take down the US now and again.

Allison Cary: I agree with RJ.

Charles Olney: I was looking over the betting odds this morning, and put up a tweet. I have to say that the odds look a little off to me, but I’m curious if others think so.

RJ Allen: I do not think these betting books know Germany’s state of affairs right now.

Charles Olney: I still think the German team has a lot of potential, but yeah, I certainly don’t think recent evidence suggests they belong in a tier with the US and France.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I’m also not that confident in Japan.

RJ Allen: This is, to me at least, proof that while betting markets are not great now, they might drive some change. The house wants to keep their money. So they are going to need some better stats and better people predicting these things. They might drive that area.

Charles Olney: I think it’s interesting that Spain is right up there. I really enjoyed watching them against the US this week, but I felt like they were still a little under the radar. I wonder whether some of that is people transposing their judgments about the quality of the men’s team.

RJ Allen: Brazil being so high might be the same thing.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I think Spain could make a decent run, but I don’t see them going all the way. They looked better than expected against the US, but not quite there yet.

RJ Allen: Can we all agree if North Carolina was in the World Cup (at full roster) they would be on the top 5 in the list?

Charles Olney: Definitely. I was actually thinking about them and Lyon and how they’d fare if they attended the World Cup. And I think it’s a good sign for the game in general that we’re getting close to the point where the very highest level of soccer is at the club level rather than the international level. We’re not quite there yet, but the tipping point might be coming soon.

Charles Olney: Okay, so turning the attention toward the US in particular, I’m curious if anyone has any broader thoughts about the recent friendlies. Anything to worry about there, or just a normal way to kick off the year?

Luis Hernandez: No worries for the first two matches after months being off for me.

RJ Allen: I think a lot of the worry about the games are going to end up not being founded. They have been off for a few months, it’s their pre season, a lot of players aren’t playing or have been hurt. If they look like this in May I will worry. But right now, no.

Allison Cary: I’m not worried about the U.S. Maybe it’s just me, but I learned more about the U.S. opponents in these two friendlies than I did the U.S.

Luis Hernandez: I enjoyed how Spain moved the ball. Didn’t know they were skilled to do that for their team.

RJ Allen: I agree with Allison. I think we learned a lot about France.

RJ Allen: We had no real answer for Henry. And while Horan should be able to match her, this game she very much did not.

Charles Olney: One impression I got from talking with the French players and coaches at that game: it mattered to them. A lot. They really wanted to lay down a marker, and it showed in the performance. That’s a great sign for a team that’s often struggled a bit to handle the pressure. I think they’re ready this time.

RJ Allen: That to me is a big deal. France doesn’t seem to really fear the US, at least in that match.

Allison Cary: Yeah, which caught my eye. France seemed really ready to prove that they belonged in that top tier.

Charles Olney: The US may still end up beating them in the quarterfinals, and we may end up talking about yet another France team that underperformed. But right now, I feel as confident about France as I ever have.

Allison Cary: They weren’t intimidated. They played their game. If they do that in June… they’re dangerous.

RJ Allen: Also, can we talk about the packaging of the games themselves for a moment? They were not really featured games. They weren’t cash cows. They were in Europe. The game against Spain was in the middle of a day. That feels big for the US in general.

Charles Olney: Yeah, that’s a great point. The US has often treated friendlies more as opportunities to make money than anything else. And they arguably still have a few of those coming up later in the spring. But on the whole, this seems like a team that’s keeping their eyes on the prize. And that’s a good thing.

Charles Olney: So, that’s a lot of positives. But I do want to focus our attention on two other stories that have been dominating the news lately, which are less encouraging. One is the confusing and troubling story surrounding the coaching change at Australia. The other is the persistent moving disaster that is Sky Blue FC. Let’s start local and discuss the unfortunate team in New Jersey.

RJ, you had some reporting that just came out about events there. And we’ve had a couple other stories recently about the continuing problems. At this point I almost don’t know where to start.

RJ Allen: So I have had a lot of conversations in the last few months with people that are no longer with Sky Blue. About a week about I spoke to someone still much more connected.

As I think you and I have spoken about on the 123rd Minute, Reddy had largely escaped conversation. And this person made it clear that is a mistake.

Charles Olney: I almost feel like we spent so much time in 2018 talking about the problems at the management level that we all really wanted to construct a narrative where the coach and the players were innocent victims just trying to survive in a cruel world. But your reporting makes it seem like Reddy maybe should have come in for a lot more criticism at the time. It was certainly strange to see a team that honestly had a lot of talented players do SO wretchedly bad week in and week out. And it was peculiar how the coach never really seemed to come in for the kind of criticism we’d expect.

RJ Allen: The information I have really does paint a picture of someone who sucked in as much power as they were able, due in large part of the issues in management, and had a hard time using that for the benefit of the players.

Charles Olney: It does strike me as a situation where it would be incredibly hard to succeed. So it’s possible that in more favorable conditions, Reddy might have sailed along just fine. So I certainly hope that none of this ends up taking away attention from the major problems at the top. But it’s definitely important to look at all parts of the picture.

On that note, as we are talking here it’s been two weeks since the draft. There, Tony Novo promised significant news on progress would come ‘within 30 days.’ Is anyone holding out hope that we’ll actually see something meaningful there?

Allison Cary: Nope.

Charles Olney: And if not, do we think Sky Blue is going to actually make it to the end of the season with enough players to fill a starting XI every game?

RJ Allen: No.

Allison Cary: No.

RJ Allen: They might have enough players because as we all know people dream of playing pro. There are enough ex NCAA players in New Jersey to fill in an XI. Look at Sky Blue’s roster in the past. They have always counted on local players. More than most.

Charles Olney: I do still hold out a little bit of hope that the remaining players manage to band together and fight this out, like you’d see in a classic sports movie where the underdogs find a way to show everyone their spirit. And there IS still a decent amount of talent theoretically on that roster. But as each week goes on, I find it harder and harder to be positive.

RJ Allen: My question is though, what does that buy? If they win games, what does that buy other than some cover to keep the team going? It might make the players a bit happier but all it does it prolong the fate that is written on the walls.

Allison Cary: Yeah, perpetuating a bad system isn’t necessarily good. Unfortunately, Sky Blue struggling along could do more harm than good.

RJ Allen: And I admit I am a bit pessimistic about all of this. But still.

Charles Olney: At this point, I think the best case scenario is a modestly positive year, which will allow everyone to feel good about moving on during the next offseason when they’re pushed out of the league…or when someone who will make real changes comes in to buy them out. But I agree: doing just well enough to survive without making any real changes might be even worse than ‘raze the ground and then salt the earth after.’

Charles Olney: Alright, so another troubling story: Alen Stajcic, the coach of Australia, was let go under the cloud of a recent report describing ‘toxic’ conditions on the team. It’s a very strange story with quite a lot of it hidden from view. I’m curious if anyone has any clear thoughts about what it all means.

RJ Allen: I think the federation has handled this horribly. Even if he was released with 100% cause, the federation makes it look like a hit job in a way that makes them look worse.

Charles Olney: Can’t argue with that. It does seem like, based on the information they seem to have, firing him was the right call. But the manner in which it’s been done has been very rough.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I don’t feel like I have enough of the story to make a clear judgment. But it’s been weird.

Charles Olney: Which doesn’t really do any favors to anyone.

RJ Allen: Players seem caught off guard too. Which is never a great look.

Allison Cary: Yeah, their statements haven’t been a position reflection on the federation.

Charles Olney: Which makes me wonder about those players who contributed statements about the toxic environment. Are they just hanging back in silence, feeling like they were hung out to dry by this process? Are they feeling pressure to say positive things now, because that same toxic environment is lingering, as many of the players who liked Stajcic have said positive things?

It would be particularly cruel to make it even harder for players to be honest and clear about how they’ve been treated because the Federation doesn’t want to air their own dirty laundry.

RJ Allen: Without the details of what a “toxic environment” is, I’m not sure what to think. Does it mean not welcoming newer players or players without the pro polish to them? Does it mean abuse? Without details it’s left up to us to put name to it. Which is never good.

Allison Cary: Yeah, especially considering the England scandal is still fresh in a lot of people’s minds, it’s not hard to assume the worst.

Charles Olney: There have been some more details in some of the media reports that have come out after. Things like abusive comments, body shaming, harassment that’s unrelated to on-field performance. All of which does sound like a really negative culture. But none of those are official statements, so we still have to wonder. And yes, I totally agree with Allison that the context of the Mark Sampson affair absolutely can’t be forgotten.

RJ Allen: Seeing more senior players supporting Stajcic just makes it more difficult for everyone. Having Kerr and LDV and so on look like they are blind sided is going to make a lot of the fans question this all. Plus an assistant quit in protest.

Charles Olney: Alright, I think we’ll probably have more to say on this subject as we potentially get more information. But for now, why don’t we turn back to some more positives, and discuss the NWSL. We have the draft, and some trades to mull over. And I’m curious what y’all think about where teams stand going into 2019. Who has made progress? Anyone who looks like a good bet to break into the top 4? Anyone who made the playoffs last year that you think is in danger of dropping out?

Bearing in mind that this will be a strange year, where many of the top teams will be losing huge portions of their roster for half of the season or more. Is there anyone that will be relatively unharmed by the World Cup that looks poised to take advantage of that opportunity?

RJ Allen: North Carolina is going to win the league by > 9 points. NTers or no. That team will win on the underdog story all their “best” players are gone.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I agree.

RJ Allen: I think Chicago has a really good shot this year. Seattle with Groom will be fun too. And now that we’re in this part of the season I can’t wait for the Laura Harvey mega trade.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I like Utah.

Charles Olney: That’s definitely the thing that’s most been missing this offseason.

Allison Cary: Definitely.

Charles Olney: I’m personally very torn on Houston. I think there’s a decent chance that they suffer a bit of regression to the mean this year, dropping down a bit simply because they probably overperformed their talent a bit last year. On the other hand, they’ll have a roster that’s comparatively less hit by the World Cup. And maybe they actually take a step forward. If so, they could actually even sneak into a playoff spot. I’d certainly love to see a new team make the playoffs – whether Houston or Utah. It’s always good for a new set of fans to have a playoff team to support.

RJ Allen: If Daly is there all year, and I don’t think she will be, and Mewis the Elder is back, they have a really good shot.

Charles Olney: Anyone have any thoughts about Washington? Their new coach seems to think very highly of himself. Anyone believe that he’ll be able to back it up?

Allison Cary: Not really. I just haven’t seen anything promising.

RJ Allen: I think that he is going to have some :fire: quotes from post games.

Charles Olney: I’d like to believe they have a plan. But…it’s a little hard to see how it’s supposed to work. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for them, I guess.

Alright, any final thoughts on the world of women’s soccer before we wrap up for the day? Any other stories that have piqued your interest?

RJ Allen: I am so glad we got to see soccer from the US. I missed it.

Allison Cary: The Afghan women’s national team story has gone a little quiet. It’s hard not to feel pessimistic there, but I think it’s important to just mention it.

RJ Allen: I agree.

Charles Olney: Absolutely. There’s just so much depressing news out there. It can feel overwhelming trying to keep up with it all.

Allison Cary: Absolutely.

Charles Olney: That’s kind of a grim note to finish on, but I think that’s alright. There’s plenty to be excited about too, of course, but it’s important to always remember how much work there still is to do.

Alright, thanks everyone for participating, and thanks to the folks out there for reading. We’ve got a big year coming up and are excited to get to share it with you.

MLS Commissioner Don Garber Shares League Position on Growing Women’s Game

Posted on by RJ Allen

Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber gave his annual State of the League address and was asked specifically if teams in his league are interested in investing in the women’s game ahead of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup. In year’s past, Garber has been coy when answering these questions but was far more talkative on Friday, perhaps due to the massive success of the host team Atlanta United FC. His answers didn’t necessarily strike at the heart of any issues but it did leave it in the hands of the clubs themselves.

“This is something we’re leaving to our individual clubs,” said Garber when asked about team investments in the women’s game. “It’s not something we’re looking at engaging at the league level through Mark at league operations on the competitive side or Gary on the commercial side. We made that decision a number of years ago to try to let the women’s league find their own way.”

Since MLS stepped away a number of years ago but several teams have still remained involved in varying levels. The Houston Dash, Portland Thorns, Seattle Reign and Utah Royals all have significant ownership stakes from MLS franchise owners. Even in the lower leagues of the men’s game, teams like North Carolina FC have worked towards bringing successful teams to the United states with the North Carolina Courage making the NWSL Championship last season. Despite the eagerness to engage in the women’s game, Don Garber and MLS seem reluctant.

Part of that may have to do with the United Soccer League. The USL which now controls the professional game below the first division with the USL Championship and USL League One, has shown an interest in potentially running the NWSL. First reported by Bob Williams of Sports Business Insider back in July, the ever-growing men’s league appeared ready to step in and take the reigns from USSF which has done a poor job by the judgement of many in running the only current women’s league in the country. Whether anything more comes of the rumors remains to be seen. However the rapid expansion of USL not just at the division 2 level but at the semi-pro level and their interest in controlling a division one league could find this a interesting proposition.

“We have been encouraging our owners to expand what they could offer to our fans,” said Garber, tactically pointing at the league’s interest without saying too much. “We have a 34 game schedule. 17 non-playoff games on a regular season. There’s no reason, if the market could support it, that we wouldn’t want our teams to have more inventory in those stadiums.

“We also believe that we need to drive the ‘Soccer Nation’ thing. While I am very proud of the fact that Major League Soccer has been a big driver of some of the successes that have gone on in the sport, whether it’s from a fan perspective and the supporter movement, growing the commercial aspect of the game or thinking about technology, social media and the like. I do think that we could use some of our collective wisdom to grow the women’s game.”

Backline Chat: World Cup Dark Horses and the NWSL Offseason

Posted on by RJ Allen

Photo by Lora Charles.

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Hi everyone, and welcome to our first slackchat of the offseason. We’re hoping to get back into a semi-regular conversations here are news starts to pick up. For today, we’ll mostly focus on international news, and do a little bit of assessment of where things stand with the NWSL offseason. To kick things off, how do people feel about the state of the US national team at the end of 2018?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I think the USWNT is playing as well as it has under Ellis. They are beating the teams they should beat, running good teams off the field at times and making adjustments for players being out or not playing to their peak.

Going in to 2019 I think they are in a really solid position. Even more so when you see a lot of the other teams you’d expect to compete in 2019 having missteps.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I haven’t watched as many of the games recently, but to be honest, I’ve been surprised by some of the scorelines. Scotland and Portugal holding the U.S. to one goal shows improvement in their competition. I think that’s what it is though– the rest of the world catching up rather than the U.S. declining.

Charles Olney: For a long time, my take has been that Ellis wasn’t a very good coach for the experimental phase, but having gone through 2016-2017 without learning much, she’d be pretty solid for this part. I still feel pretty good about that. There’s still plenty I’m grumpy about with the team, but I think they’re playing very well overall. Even if the two recent games were pretty drab, as you note.

RJ Allen: I don’t think Ellis is a great coach. But I don’t think she *has* to be with the talent she has. I do think the US is just in another tier right now in terms of both play and expectations though. Think of the reaction if Chile beat the US like they just did Australia.

Charles Olney: That’s true. I do think it’s worth noting that this group of players seems to be much more settled, and much more capable of organizing themselves than some of the past versions of the team. I genuinely don’t know whether that’s entirely separate from Ellis, or if she gets some of the credit for keeping them on an even keel. Either way, it’s a good place to be.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): As a whole you can’t really say too much negative when the team goes undefeated for the calendar year. I like where we are talent-wise. I think if anything I’m still slightly unhappy with Ellis more than anything else. But then I’d expect the US to beat Chile 5-0 like the Matildas did

Charles Olney: But to RJ’s point, it’s worth noting just how badly almost every other major competitor has stumbled this year. Australia lost to Chile. England just lost to Sweden. Germany has been struggling badly. The Dutch had to go through the playoffs. And on and on. Meanwhile, the US is just churning through their opponents.

RJ Allen: A lot of the key players are also more mature in general. Alex Morgan isn’t a young gun coming up anymore. She’s a leader on the team and one of the most accomplished players they have. Rapinoe has matured in her role. So has Ertz and Dunn and a lot of players. It makes it more forgiving all the way around.

Luis Hernandez: there has to be a perfect storm for the US to lose, I don’t think they are going to roll everyone at the World Cup, but the right match up with a few key players not on the pitch and then it could be “Houston, we have a problem”

Allison Cary: I think their experience shows here too. England, Australia, etc. might be more prone to stumble because they haven’t been this good for this long. But that goes to support your point that the U.S. is a tier above the rest. I also don’t think that means a smooth road to another World Cup trophy. But it does help.

Charles Olney: It does feel notable how many of the veterans seem to be playing at a top level, well past the stage when some decline might have been expected. Two years ago Rapinoe felt like she was on the way out, Morgan looked like she might be slowing down, Sauerbrunn was starting to fade a bit. And it wasn’t clear the younger players could step in. But now…the vets are playing great, and even if some of the younger ones haven’t necessarily stepped up, it just doesn’t really matter.

It wouldn’t be that hard to imagine an alternate universe where they NEEDED Lavelle, Brian, Pugh, etc. to step up and were stumbling badly because there wasn’t anyone to fill in those critical roles. But it just hasn’t happened.

Luis Hernandez: There is something to be said for that USWNT trait that has the veterans on the team not to let up on the younger players when things go south. It appears like they will the team to a result. Just when I think why does the US need player X when things are going well, I see a Rose Lavelle and she reminds me why.

RJ Allen: If you made a list of the top 100 women’s soccer players in the world. The US would have their starting XI – Ellis’s preferred XI – on the list. All 11. I am not sure any other country would be able to say that. And that is a huge advantage.

Charles Olney: So it sounds like we’re in agreement that the US is looking like favorites, but that certainly doesn’t mean anything is certain. So who do y’all see as the other teams most likely to be in the mix next summer?

And are there any other teams where you think their stock has risen over the past 12 months?

RJ Allen: I think France has to be in the running.

Allison Cary: I want to say France but they always seem to disappoint me.

RJ Allen: In there is ever a time for France to get over the hump, it’s 2019 at home.

Charles Olney: Yeah, I’d make France second-favorites, though I understand why their fans would be worried.

Luis Hernandez: A healthy Australia who can get their defense right, could be a problem. They don’t fear the US anymore

Allison Cary: England and Australia I think are definitely in the mix. And the Netherlands?

RJ Allen: I think Scotland with a healthy Kim Little could be a dark house for the semis. I say this hoping that putting it into the universe will make it happen.

Allison Cary: I thought they looked pretty good today.

Luis Hernandez: I felt that as well until I realize how many first choice starters the US was missing

Charles Olney: I’ll probably write up a full piece on my sense of where teams fit into tiers, but I think Scotland is a neat pick for a dark horse. I wouldn’t really bet on them past the round of 16 but they could potentially beat just about anyone on their day.

One thing about this tournament is that there just aren’t that many teams who project to be rock solid. Scotland won’t light any fires, but they also aren’t going to implode. That could get them through a couple tight games.

RJ Allen: Canada is a team I’ll be keeping an eye on too. This is very likely the last chance Sinclair has for the World Cup title.

Luis Hernandez: Because of the expanding field there’s going to be some not great teams at the World Cup too.

RJ Allen: I think that’s wonderful though.

Allison Cary: Yeah. That’s the way people get better. What an opportunity for some of these programs.

Charles Olney: There’s a large group of teams that I have in the ‘shrug emoji’ part of the field (Japan, Brazil, Sweden, China, Norway, Italy, Spain, South Korea). All of those are arguably better than Scotland, but I could see several of them having disastrous tournaments, too.

RJ Allen: Has Norway figured out if one of the best players in the world is playing for them again?

Allison Cary: I don’t think so.

Charles Olney: If I had to bet, I still think she probably does play. But I haven’t actually seen anything suggesting that it’s in the mix.

Luis Hernandez: So I know the team hasn’t qualified for the World Cup yet, but if they do, are New Zealand going to get out of the group stage?

RJ Allen: I don’t know we can say that until we see the draws. A good draw might see them get out but a bad one and they are last in their group.

Allison Cary: I’ll be surprised if they make it out of the group. A good draw could help them, but my instinct is that they won’t go far.

Charles Olney: New Zealand is an interesting one. I think a lot depends on their draw, as you both have said. They’re probably one of the five or six weakest teams, but if they happened to get drawn with a Jamaica or someone, they could potentially pick up 4 points and go through.

RJ Allen: I do hope that Erceg pulls a Brett Farve and un-retires again.

Charles Olney: For New Zealand, bringing in Sermanni was a great move. I don’t think he’s a guy that can beat the odds all by himself, but I think they’re in a much stronger position now.

Luis Hernandez: the draw is 20ish days away, so that’s something to look forward to…and Christmas music.

Allison Cary: I think Erceg will, assuming she is satisfied with the federation.

Charles Olney: In many ways, that mid-to-bottom tier is the most interesting to me. It’s very likely that one or two of New Zealand, Nigeria, South Africa, Chile, etc. make the knockout rounds. But I certainly wouldn’t bet on any individually.

Allison Cary: Yeah. It will be fun to watch.

RJ Allen: This has been a wild year for women’s soccer. I really hope it stays that way in 2019 and we get an exciting World Cup. I want to see some upsets. Just no PKs in the knock outs.

Allison Cary: Agreed.

Luis Hernandez: if you had to put money on a non-front-runner team, who would it be? I’d hedge my bet on one of the Scandinavian teams

Allison Cary: Yeah, probably Sweden.

Charles Olney: If Germany counts as a non front runner, I think they’re a lot better than they’ve played recently. If you want to go down a full additional rung, I think Japan might pull it together. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I tend to trust teams that build with a system. Sweden is also a good call.

RJ Allen: Canada vs Australia in the final playing at their peaks would be fun.

Luis Hernandez: I have a weird feeling about Norway. Don’t know why

Allison Cary: I’m pretty sure in a previous chat, I promised that if France won the Women’s World Cup and the Men’s World Cup, I would be obligated to move to France. Not sure what I’m rooting for lol. Wouldn’t be opposed at this point.

RJ Allen: I do have a related topic I want to get some thoughts on. I think one of the things we’re seeing, maybe more than ever with the US, in the idea that good players are somewhat disposable.

Sofia Huerta was good but she wasn’t as good as Morgan, Press, Williams, so on so she got converted to an outside back. But she wasn’t an outside back and no one in their right mind plays her there for club so she’s out even if she got the US to change her status so she can only play for the US.

Chioma Ubogagu plays for us on a youth level but never really made it on the senior team and goes on to get some shots playing for England. Dropping quotes like:

“When I went into the [U.S.] senior camp last year, the environment wasn’t for me. I guess that’s the best way to put it,” Ubogagu admitted. “Then coming into this environment, it just felt right immediately. Some things in football, it’s just like an instinct, and it felt like this was the place I’m supposed to be.”

I think one of the issues is because the US is so deep if you don’t come in and fit in right away you have a limited shot overall. It sucks but I’m not sure what else the US can do having so many players they can pull from. (edited)

Charles Olney: Yeah, the Ubogagu quotes on the US team were pretty interesting. I do think the US is a friendlier place than it was historically, when it probably resembled a frat house in the middle of pledge week more than anything else. But I don’t think it’s necessarily that welcoming to the folks who are on the margins.

Which is to say: I think the individual players are generally very nice, but it is definitely a closed circle, and until someone proves that they are going to stick around for a long time, they don’t really get integrated that much.

RJ Allen: If you are Mal Pugh level break out star, you have a real shot. But if you’re a role player or in that grey area you have a hard time and might want to see what other options you have. It sucks but that seems to be the thought process.

Charles Olney: And as you say, there’s just so much talent at the top that it’s really hard for any of those 20-30ish players to do so well that they can get over that hurdle.

RJ Allen: And I am not sure I can blame it being the process, to be honest.

Luis Hernandez: I’ve heard it from Ubogagu and Kristen Edmonds when they were at camp that the speed of things there was very high, I’d imagine most new call ups get a lukewarm reception until they have been to multiple camps and there’s more of a friendly vibe, versus a professional vibe.

Charles Olney: I would love to see more honest commentary about what it feels like to be a bubble player. I remember a few quotes from Colaprico a while back which made it seem pretty grim. For Ubogagu, the circumstance of having dual nationality gave her the chance to speak her mind and not worry about repercussions. But I bet a lot of other folks feel the same way.

Luis Hernandez: It raised a question if speed was only an on the field thing, or it also meant film study and the like.

RJ Allen: I would think it is just all of it. We’ve all spoken to collage players who the step to pro is too much. I’d think it is like that just more so.

Luis Hernandez: Since the pool of players is so big, the chance of falling out of favor can happen quickly. Hello Jane Campbell and Taylor Smith. Casey Short to some extent…Ashley Hatch…

Charles Olney: One thing to look forward to over the next 5-10 years is the increasing professionalization of the NWSL. Right now, the difference between ‘just on the outside’ and ‘just on the inside’ for the national team is the difference between living with your parents and having a real stable professional life. But at some point the gap won’t be so extreme. That could make the transitional process much healthier.

RJ Allen: For as goofy and as much as a teenager as she is, on the field Mal Pugh knows the ins and outs of soccer and how to get her body to do things most 22 year olds who played 4 years of D1 can’t. That’s why she’s on the team.

I think outside of the living wage question – and I think it’s a huge question – I’m not sure it’s a problem that the US cycles so fast. Yes, good players get overlooked. But on some level if you can play to the level the NT plays on, you’ll likely find yourself on the team.

Charles Olney: Andi Sullivan is another interesting example there. Based on her NWSL season, she shouldn’t be anywhere near the national team right now. But they can see, quite reasonably, that she has potential above and beyond some other folks. So I get why they make exceptions for a player like that. And I also get why it would be so frustrating for other NWSL players who might think “but I outplayed her for an entire season!”

RJ Allen: I think “pedigree” feeds in to it a lot. Where did you play college, did you play for the U20s, did Ellis give you early camp calls. All of that feeds in to which horse they bet on.

And then there is McCall Zerboni.

Charles Olney: Yeah. I think that’s an important point RJ. I think I said this in a previous chat, but at the end of the day the identify of the 20-23 spots on the US roster just isn’t that important. Much as we all enjoy arguing about it. The US isn’t really losing a huge amount by not bringing in DiBernardo or Amber Brooks or something. Even if they could integrate perfectly, the US just doesn’t need them. So I do think it’s worth discussing the process, and I do wish it was more responsive to form. But I also don’t think it’s anything close to a crisis in terms of overall team performance.

Luis Hernandez: You know what solves this Charles, a general manger!

RJ Allen: I don’t know if I agree that solves anything. It has the power to do a lot but what power does a GM have to change the fact the US just has a ton of very good players and you can only put 23 on a roster?

Luis Hernandez: perhaps we can get the system to develop those players sooner. More Mal Pugh level of 18 year olds.

RJ Allen: The problem is the NCAA is a thing and has a ton of sway in all of that. And I can’t see that going away. Not with pay like it is. Mal Pugh could afford to go pro and be on the NT. If she was from a family with an income of $35,000 a year she’d be at UCLA right now.

Charles Olney: I think larger institutional reform would be good, but it’s a longer-term process for sure. I don’t think reorganizing the system would alter the basic inputs that much right now. If they were to get rid of Ellis and bring in someone who evaluates talent differently, that would obviously make a difference. But that ship has sailed.

And yes, the weight of the college game is also a big part of how young talent gets developed (or not developed).

Charles Olney: Alright, well, speaking of NWSL development, why don’t we take a moment to discuss the state of the league. We’re a couple months into the offseason and…we’ve had very little news. Sky Blue is still doing their Sky Blue thing, with no real evidence of progress. Three teams are still looking for coaches. The draft is still a couple months away. So what are people looking forward to once news starts moving again?

RJ Allen: I can’t wait to see the trades that Harvey, Vlatko and Riley pull off this offseason.

Charles Olney: Houston has been dropping hints about the hiring process being resolved soon, but I’m not sure if that means this week or just…in 2018. But I’d love to see all the teams get settled well before the draft.

Luis Hernandez: Frankly, I think that the teams without head coaches are already behind the power curve

Allison Cary: Me too.

Luis Hernandez: I don’t think we’ll get any ideas of which teams are going to be looking at trading if they don’t have a head coach in place. I also think that it is hard to figure if a team needs to bring in more players if we don’t have information on the expanded roster size

RJ Allen: I’d like to see more former players as coaches personally. I saw that Nadine Angerer got a contract extension in Portland and really highlights what former players of the league can bring to it.

Charles Olney: My impression from Duffy’s comments at the final was that we could expect roster sizes to expand by a couple slots. I hope that encourages coaches to think more seriously about filling out their rosters, and rotating a bit more to keep everyone fresh. I wonder if it just means a few more bench players that only get playing time when the national teamers head out for France.

Allison Cary: I will be hoping for the former, but I expect the latter.

RJ Allen: I am happy, very happy, for the idea of each team carrying three goalkeepers. I think that is a huge win for the league.

Charles Olney: I mean, let’s wait for the official announcement to call it a win, but yeah, I agree.

RJ Allen: Do we think USSF will give the NWSL a commish once they have a new CEO? Is that the hold up, do we think?

Luis Hernandez: I won’t consider it much of an advancement unless it’s a roster size of 26 or something along those lines

RJ Allen: It will not be 26. It will be 22 or 23. Jumping to 26 would crash the cap and minimum salary for players.

Luis Hernandez: Oh I get that it will only be a bump of two or three but it should be a raise of six players. Not fielding a full bench is bush-league

Charles Olney: Yeah, I’d expect 23. I do think that’s a big deal. If that were combined with another decent bump to the minimum wage, I’d call that a successful offseason

RJ Allen: I don’t think 26 is needed right now. I don’t know if I’d ever agree it would be. 23 is 11 vs 11 with an extra goalkeeper.

Luis Hernandez: well, (and I know RJ will love this) MLS roster size is 30

RJ Allen: And I care about that because?

Luis Hernandez: The NWSL needs to have more than a couple of spares. It’s a World Cup year, let’s also create some depth with teams

Charles Olney: I do think that men’s league provide a useful standard for comparison, of how things should run if the money is plentiful and capacity isn’t a constant danger. But I also think MLS rosters are a bit larger than many other teams around the world, which generally clock in around 23-24, and then have development teams.

RJ Allen: It would also be crazy to ask teams to jump up $100,000 in the salary cap to go to 26.

Luis Hernandez: I’m not even saying add more internationals, they can be domestic players. $100,000 more in payroll, welcome to higher standards

RJ Allen: That would be everyone on minimum pay. Not really want you want to encourage.

Charles Olney: Alright, kind of a dark question but: will Sky Blue be in the league in 2019? If yes, will they make any meaningful improvements to the problems they have been facing, or will it just be the bare minimum of window-dressing?

RJ Allen: The NWSL has shown a full dereliction of their duties when it comes to Sky Blue. They seem not to be pushing them to do anything. I don’t know if it’s because of how the owners are, because Duffy and co don’t have the power to force their hands, I don’t know.

Charles Olney: Yeah, I can’t really tell either. But if they were making any serious progress, it sure seems like they’re be talking it up. So the general radio silence feels bad.

Luis Hernandez: I’m not even remotely close to the Sky Blue situation, but I can’t believe that current ownership group can’t make it work

RJ Allen: Cloud 9 has been banging the drum trying to get people to pay attention as the attention has left them.

Allison Cary: Yeah, the silence is not good.

RJ Allen: But there is no more information. I don’t know what to make of it. The owners there have the money. That doesn’t seem the issue. The issue is caring about this as more than a pet project to show your daughter some form of “girl power”.

Allison Cary: But like Charles said, if there was serious progress, it seems like they would be talking about it.

Charles Olney: I wish I had something more intelligent to say. But I really don’t. It’s terrible, and a major stain on the league, and they just need to fix it. But I don’t think they will.

Allison Cary: Pretty much sums it up.

RJ Allen: Honestly it might be better for all involved for the team to fold. As heartbreaking as that might be for a group of very dedicated fans.

Charles Olney: That’s tough to say, especially in a year after we lost Boston and KC. But it’s also hard to disagree with. I’m going to hold out hope. But not very much.

Allison Cary: If the club is too toxic, better to fold than drag out a situation bad for everyone involved.

Luis Hernandez: I feel that it may be better to relocate the team a la Utah. Here’s to NWSL to Louisville City.

Charles Olney: Alright, my final question comes from a reader, who asks: “What will it take for Adi Franch to get a chance with the NT?!?!” To which I’ll add: what is it about Harris (or Franch) that I’m not seeing? Franch isn’t perfect, but I’d describe her as almost strictly superior to Harris, in that she’s good at all the stuff Harris is good at, while also being better at the other stuff.

RJ Allen: I almost don’t think it matters. Naeher is the number one and no one else will play in France or much at all in 2019. After 2019 there will be a chance. But Ellis has made it clear what she wants for goalkeeping.

Allison Cary: Unless Naeher gets injured.

Charles Olney: Yeah, it probably won’t matter. But if Naeher breaks her foot in the opening match next summer, Harris is (apparently) going to play it out from there. If we discussed the potential strange circumstances where the US loses up above, surely Harris making a major blunder is one of them, right?

Allison Cary: I think Franch is superior to Harris, but Harris has been around longer. I don’t think that should translate to playing time, but I think it does.

Charles Olney: It just feels like a weird own goal. Lots of things that Ellis does, even if I don’t agree, I understand the logic. I’m just kind of baffled here.

RJ Allen: Harris is not a great goalkeeper. She is not in my top three for the US. But NT wide, is she less than average? I mean, I can’t believe I’m the one to ask. But it feels like post Scurry and Solo we just have the goalkeeping bar too high sometimes.

Charles Olney: Yeah, I suppose I should default back to my ‘goalkeepers are overrated’ prior here. And restore the normal balance of our conversations.

RJ Allen: I don’t think goalkeepers are over rated. I do think the US is judged on an unfair curve that Scurry and Solo set. If we were going from 15 years of Barnie to Naeher and Harris, it would not be seen the same way.

Luis Hernandez: I’m just going to hold on the keepers we have until the end of the World Cup then I’ll be clamoring about who the next group should be.

RJ Allen: Jordan Small 2023.

Charles Olney: Alright, well that’s as good a place to end as anywhere. Thanks for chatting everyone.

Sky Blue is a Moral Failure for the NWSL

Posted on by RJ Allen

If Sky Blue FC was owned by a Republican member of New Jersey politics, Governor Phil Murphy may have already called for a special session to ask how someone could own a team and run it so poorly. If Steven Temares, the Chief Executive Officer of Bed Bath & Beyond, had someone interview for a position at his company who ran things as poorly as Sky Blue has been run, they’d be laughed out of the room. And yet these men are the owners of Sky Blue FC, a club that has offered little to no outward sign of change since a run of articles at Deadspin (written by Erica L Ayala and myself), Once A Merto and The Equalizer all reported on the conditions.

Conditions that should have 1) been known to the NWSL and been corrected years ago and 2) set managing director of operations, Amanda Duffy’s hair on fire when they finally got some of the publicity they deserve.

And yet, a few months later and no one is still really talking about Sky Blue FC and its failures of leadership. No one except for Cloud 9, the team’s supporters group, a collection of people who are as dedicated to the players as any you’re ever likely to find.

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The media, myself included, have largely moved onto new subjects, and stopped talking about the lack of showers or the shabby conditions. This isn’t surprising, exactly. Media sites generally have a hard time sticking with a story for an extended period of time. Other issues draw our attention, and without any real news–thanks to a lack of comments from players and the team–there’s a limit to how much you want to keep bashing your head against the wall of the same old story. But maybe we should have bashed a bit harder.

The team says they’re changing. But where’s the evidence? They’re still employing Tony Novo, they still think it’s acceptable to have used a trailer as the team’s shower, and playing on the Rutgers field. And there’s no proof they plan to actually do anything but wait until this all blows over and hope everyone forgets. They haven’t responded to critics or supporters, not even when fans have stated directly that they won’t buy season tickets until change is made.

The fault is with the Sky Blue organization. But the buck doesn’t stop there. The NWSL itself has also failed the players and fans of Sky Blue FC by not pushing the ownership to make real changes or pushing for the sale of the team when they didn’t. They have failed every player who steps in to the jail cell of a visitor’s locker room with no access to a shower. They have chosen obfuscation, presumably in the hopes that “wait and see if the blow back dies down” will be a winning strategy.

The current owners have the money to turn Sky Blue in to one of the top teams in the NWSL. They know how to run an organization. They’re in one of the biggest media markets in the country. But the path to success requires responsiveness to these issues. It means accepting the legitimacy of criticism, and making real efforts to meet the rising standards for a professional sports team. Failure to live up to any of that has all but sealed the club’s fate.

Sky Blue FC needs to be sold to owners who are willing to devote the time, money and energy to make the team successful. And if that can’t happen then maybe a quick death is better than the laborious, suffocating death the team is currently sentenced to.

A Sociological View on Selling Women’s Soccer: A Conversation with Dr. Rachel Allison

Posted on by RJ Allen

Most of the media that cover women’s sports have made themselves experts in the field – and often times using expert feels a bit dicy – through years of following the teams and players. We get there by writing about the on-the-field play and the off-the-field drama of whatever is going on.

But let’s face it. Most of us, when you come right down to it, are not experts in gender studies or sports in any sort of academic sense. There are a surprising number of lawyers in the women’s soccer media ranks, a lot of former players, a few academics from other areas. But most of us come to the media from a place of passion to fill a gap we see.

That’s where Dr. Rachel Allison enters the picture. Dr. Allison recently wrote a book called Kicking Center: Gender and the Selling of Women’s Professional Soccer that addresses a lot of issues that have faced women’s soccer. She is what many of us would call a honest-to-goodness expert in what a lot of the women’s soccer media writes about. In 2014 she received a PhD in Sociology from the University of Illinois at Chicago. Currently she is an Assistant Professor of Sociology and affiliate of Gender Studies at Mississippi State University.

“I typically teach undergraduate and graduate classes in research methods, sociology of sport, and sociology of gender and sexuality,” Dr. Allison explained when I asked her about her work at Mississippi State University.

I was lucky enough to be able to speak with Dr. Allison and ask some questions about why she decided on this topic and why she went in some of the directions she did.

The story of why this book was written is one that most women’s soccer fans can get behind. Dr. Allison was, like so many in women’s soccer, a fan of the 1999 team and all that was born out of their World Cup winning side.

Like most of us that cover or write about women’s soccer at all, there is a confluence of the personal and professional love for this game and those who play it.

“I came to this topic for both personal and academic reasons. Personally, I grew up playing soccer and continued through college. I love the sport and it has been a big part of my life and my own physical and social development. I’m also the right age (34) to remember events like the 1996 Olympics, 1999 Women’s World Cup, and birth of the WUSA – as a fan, of course. My students call me old! But I have very clear memories of watching the Women’s World Cup and feeling so excited to see women playing my favorite sport on TV. It would have been hard at the time to avoid seeing clips or images from the ’99 championship! I knew about the WUSA, although I lived too far from any team at the time to attend a game. And when that league folded in 2003, I was leaving home for college. It was a huge disappointment to me that at the time it was becoming more possible for me to travel to a game as I became more independent, it wasn’t an option anymore.”

“In graduate school, I did a lot of research on women’s sports and I realized that multiple other women’s pro sports leagues had failed through the 1990’s and 2000’s. While the WUSA’s story was, of course, unique, it was also part of a pattern. And there just wasn’t much research that looked at that pattern. A lot of scholars have examined the experiences or identities of women athletes, but not so much the operations of the teams or the leagues that they play for. My personal and academic interests came together with WPS in 2009. I was in Chicago for graduate school and bought a season ticket right away for that first season. I enjoyed the games enormously (Megan Rapinoe was still brunette!) but was also aware of a lot of the struggles to gain fans, sponsorships, etc. the league faced early on. Over time, I became convinced that better understanding women’s soccer could shed light on both the challenges and opportunities for women in professional sport in the U.S.”

“I wanted to write this book to present a sociological analysis of the development and operation of women’s pro soccer, with the goal of understanding how the landscape in pro sports has changed for women in some ways and yet remained the same in others. It’s an academic book, but I hope that others can and will read it!”

The book opens with the 1999 World Cup. A place that is alive in most of our minds even if we somehow weren’t glued to the TV that day almost 20 years ago.

“I start with 1999 for a few reasons,” Dr. Allison explained, “for one, it’s an event that many people remember, even if they don’t typically follow women’s soccer or know much about it. So it’s a familiar place to start. And it’s also interesting for exactly that reason, that lots of people who recognize the players from that tournament or the now-iconic image of Chastain don’t know much else about women’s soccer. That tournament really did capture national attention in a way that has had lasting impact on our culture and that brought people “in” who hadn’t closely followed soccer before. I think this is a case of the right group at the right time with the right buy in. These women were an easy sell – they were attractive, talented, charismatic, and had clear group chemistry. 1999 marked two decades of incredible growth in girls’ and women’s sports participation, especially in soccer, and especially among affluent and predominantly white girls. Companies like Adidas and Nike perceived that women were a somewhat untapped market and had increasingly used women athletes in their advertisements and commercials. The idealized body for women had shifted away from thinness and towards athleticism. And there was buy in from corporate and media organizations that made this tournament available to watch, and in its timing, the tournament did not directly compete against other highly popular sports events.”

“The success of this tournament, like other Women’s World Cup and Olympic tournaments, fundamentally challenges the idea that there is little interest in women’s sports in the U.S. One of my arguments in the book is that interest and buy in are a two-way street: investors often want to see a quantifiable ROI to their investment, but we can’t always fully know this in advance, in part because an ROI requires that investment in the first place! Support from sponsors and media give women’s leagues legitimacy and make them available for fans. When there is buy in, even in a climate of uncertainty like that around the 1999 Women’s World Cup, interest often follows.”

When the topic shifted to what the WPS/NWSL has done well, Dr. Allison was quick to point out one major area of benefit.

“On the positive side, women’s pro soccer adopted social media early and did a great job using it to communicate with fans. This probably seems completely commonsense now, but I studied WPS in a slightly earlier era in the social media landscape, and this has allowed me to appreciate just how quick they were to get on Facebook and Twitter and how impactful social media has been, especially without being on TV. One of the results has been the creation of really vibrant and active social media fan and follower communities.”

We do often take for granted how much social media has been a boon for women’s soccer and the teams to market themselves. From the days before the internet was a thing most of us spent our time on to the days of six hours a day on Twitter, things have changed and women’s soccer has been great at using this tool to market.

Dr. Allison noted another less ethereal benefit. “I also think that women’s pro soccer changed quickly over time towards the greater acceptance of lesbian and gay sexualities and this has been a positive change. In large part, this change mirrors trends towards greater acceptance in U.S. society more generally.”

Though it seems from fans to amateur writers to PhDs the one thing we can all agree on is sometimes the leagues just don’t know who to market to.

“On a more ambivalent note, I think that women’s pro soccer has historically defined their “market” as soccer-playing girls and their parents.” Dr. Allison noted. “And while there are good reasons to go after these fans, there are also good reasons to go after other groups of fans, and these groups, particularly adult fans without kids, sometimes feel less welcomed when game day spaces are set up entirely for kids. One of the things I find in the book is that while families with soccer playing kids may be interested in women’s pro soccer, they are also not the most consistent in their fandom, often pulled in multiple directions by other of their kids’ activities and sometimes just burned out on soccer altogether.”

Women’s soccer has had an interesting journey since the early days of the internet and how it has been marketed. People like Dr. Allison and books like Kicking Center: Gender and the Selling of Women’s Professional Soccer help to remind us of where we’ve come from and how to make the future a little easier to sell. 

Kicking Center: Gender and the Selling of Women’s Professional Soccer is now available on Amazon and where other books are sold. 

Three Questions Before the NWSL Final

Posted on by RJ Allen

We have finally made it to the very last day of the 2018 NWSL season. We have weathered the summer thunderstorms, the midday heat, the head scratching trades, the coaching kerfuffles and all the other furtastic things that come with your typical season.

And we’re right back to the same place we were on the very last day of the 2017 NWSL season. The Portland Thorns and the North Carolina Courage are playing a game for all the marbles.

There are a lot of questions we just don’t know yet surrounding this match. Will the Thorns become the first team to three stars? Will North Carolina win a title after two years of regular season league dominance? Will the ref remember to take the cards out of their pocket this year if needed?

Before we all sit down to watch the NWSL championship match, I have a few other questions rattling around in my brain.

1) How will playing in Portland affect the game?

The North Carolina Courage won the league around the 4th of July. At that point it was pretty clear no one was going to catch up and they weren’t slowing down to make it easy on them anyway. But the Courage have to go for their title playing no home games in the playoffs due to a hurricane ravaging the Carolina coastline.

If the final were taking place in any other venue then we might not be talking so much about it. But Providence Park is a huge home field advantage for the Portland Thorns. Watching how the Courage react to being in a hostile environment is going to be interesting. Not having McCall Zerboni adds to the question of how the team will respond.

Will they feed off of the energy of the fans even if most won’t be supporting them? Will playing the semi there aid in their preparation? Will it turn into another 4-1 Courage victory like the team had there on May 30th?

The Thorns are going to have a more comfortable time at home. But will it give them the edge to beat the Courage? 

2) Who will be the hero of the game?

Will Tobin Heath show off just why she is so electric on the ball and win the game for the Thorns? Will it be 2018 NWSL MVP Lindsey Horan who is somehow open on yet another set piece to use her head to put the ball in the back of the net? Will it be Lynn Williams showing off why she was 2016 MVP? Or 2015 MVP Crystal Dunn making some magic?

There are players on both sides of this match with the skill and the talent to take their teams on their backs and score. There are players on both rosters with the talent to have a major defensive block to save a game winning goal too. Every centerback in this match made the Best XI or Second XI this year. 

If the ref controls the game and keeps both teams from becoming overly physical, as the final from 2017 was, this could be one of the best showcases for women’s soccer we have in 2018.

3) Will Jaelene Hinkle be booed all game and how will she handle it when she is?

Jaelene Hinkle has been the best outside back in the NWSL for two seasons while at the same time being out spoken in her active non support for LGBT persons.

During the North Carolina semi against the Chicago Red Stars, every time Hinkle had the ball, she was met with boos for the 4,000 or so fans in attendance. And it visibly rattled her. The final is a predicted sell out. Meaning about 4 times that amount of people will be in attendance for the final and presumably a fair number will boo.

From a soccer perspective how Hinkle handles this will likely make or break the game for North Carolina. She is a force on both sides of the ball for the team and they need her to be on her A game today.

For a non soccer perspective it seems that Hinkle is doing very little to think about her perspective and the harm is costs others if her comments to Stephanie Yang in her latest piece for Dirty South Soccer-  Jaelene Hinkle is aware of your boos, but doesn’t want to think about them – are any indication.

I don’t know what the “solution” to the Jaelene Hinkle saga in the NWSL is, or if there even is one. Personally I have undergone a change from “well she has a right to her wrong opinion” over the last year or so to a much less tolerant position on her unrepentant bigotry. Ideas like the ones she gave to the 700 Club hurt people. They feed into the notion that pushes LGBT persons to the brink, and often over it, every day. I hope one day Hinkle understands that. I am just sorry it took me so long to. 

The NWSL final will be played on Saturday, September 22, at 4:30 p.m. ET. If you’re in the US you can watch it on Lifetime. If you’re an international you can watch on the NWSL website.