Tag: Route Two Soccer

Route Two Soccer: Two key tactical questions for the NWSL Final

Posted on by Backline Soccer

The North Carolina Courage are in the midst of a dynasty. Despite some early season struggles, they won the Shield again this year, finishing with a goal difference of +31, miles better than anyone else. Last year they obliterated all opposition and took home the title in resounding fashion. They also made the final in 2017, losing narrowly to Portland, and won back in 2016 (as the Western New York Flash). That makes this their fourth straight finals appearance. Their coach may continue to insist to the contrary, but they are the clear favorites to win on Sunday.

The Chicago Red Stars have made the playoffs five straight years, but only won their first playoff match last weekend. They are playing the best soccer they ever produced, with a rock solid backline, one of the best midfields in the world, and two absolutely world-class forwards working in tandem. They also dominated North Carolina in the regular season results, taking seven of nine available points from the champions.

However, there are several asterisks on that record. North Carolina dominated the first game, while in the second Chicago took advantage of a World Cup-ravaged NC lineup, and were lucky to face a goalkeeper, Katelyn Rowland, in impossibly bad form, scoring on their only three shots on goal. The mid-July showdown, however, really was an impressive performance and a genuine indicator of Chicago’s potential to not merely scrounge a result against Carolina but to actually outplay them.

Whether they will repeat that performance on Sunday is unknown, of course, but I see two key questions that help to define their chances.

Can Chicago use width to open up space for an attack?

North Carolina has not varied their basic tactical setup much in the past several years. They almost always set up in a 4222 ‘box’ system, with two strikers, two attacking midfielders, and two deeper-lying midfielders who share attacking and defensive duties. It’s certainly not a perfect system, but it’s been remarkably resilient. The biggest weakness of this approach is the lack of midfield width. All four players in the midfield line are free to roam a bit, but generally take up central roles. And if they do drift wide, they risk exposing holes in the vacated middle.

However, very few teams have found a way to exploit this area, for three reasons.

First, the combination of athleticism and intelligence of North Carolina’s midfield quarter is unmatched in the league. They move so quickly to collapse on weak points that it’s the rare opponent who finds the time to take advantage.

Second, the Courage’s incredible attacking array also goes a long way to securing their defensive unit. Most teams are too worried about buttressing their defense against the all-out Carolina assault to even think about how to spring a counter.

Third, North Carolina has the best attacking fullbacks in the league, severely reducing the need for wide attackers in the midfield. The key here is left back Jaelene Hinkle who regularly is among the league leaders in assists and chances created, and has been no different this year, finishing third in the league this year with six assists. But her teammate Merritt Mathias contributed quite a lot too, with five assists of her own from the right. It looked like the Courage might struggle a bit once Mathias went down with an ACL tear last month, but they’ve barely missed a beat thanks to makeshift right back Heather O’Reilly (which isn’t really that surprising, given her lengthy and stellar career in more advanced roles).

All that said, if North Carolina has a weakness to be attacked, it’s here. The key is to target the space behind the fullbacks with precision strikes, dragging central players out wide and opening up space in the middle for the forwards to create a bit. This has the added benefit of putting the Courage’s excellent center back pairing of Abby Dahlkemper and Abby Erceg under pressure. Both are superb defenders, but both are also at their weakest when asked to range outside their box. Dahlkemper in particular is susceptible to getting turned out wide.

That left side, with Dahlkemper and O’Reilly, is probably the best zone to attack. And Chicago is uniquely well set up to take advantage, with an in-form Yuki Nagasato able to link up with excellent passers like Vanessa DiBernardo and Morgan Brian in the midfield. And obviously there is no player in the league who is more capable of converting half-chances into goals than Sam Kerr.

The other reason to think favorably about Chicago’s potential to attack in this fashion is the speed with which they can move from deep possession to a shot. This is important because any dawdling gives North Carolina’s attackers time to recover and begin aggressively pressuring those in possession, usually breaking up the threat or even retaking possession through the counter-press.

There are no certainties against North Carolina. They are versatile, flexible, and incredibly fit. Beating them requires good ideas and good execution. But if they are going to be defeated, it makes sense to target their weaknesses, and Chicago is well designed to do so.

How will Chicago use Julie Ertz?

Chicago made a big shift in early September, dropping Julie Ertz from the midfield to the backline. This was a big move for two reasons. First, it allowed them to replace the struggling Katie Naughton with one of the world’s best defenders, patching up the one weak hole in what is otherwise the league’s most solid backline. Second, it gave them the freedom to establish a more progressive and possession-driven style of play.

Ertz is a great all-around player but her weakest skills are in possession and passing. But those are only relative weaknesses. Compared to the average central midfielder, she’s not a great passer. But compared to the average center back, she is. By moving her back, therefore, Chicago improved their passing quality in two critical positions. With Ertz and Davidson in the center of their defense, they have two high-skill players for the position, who can then combine with Danielle Colaprico and Morgan Brian—arguably the most technical central midfield pairing in the league.

This isn’t a pure win-win situation. By removing Ertz from the midfield, Chicago has exposed themselves more in the center of the park. Ertz is among the best ball-winners in the world, but at center back she is far more constrained and can’t leap into nearly as many tackles. Brian and Colaprico are both good defensive players, but their skills are more in shepherding play by controlling space and less in directly challenging the opposition.

The result of playing Ertz in the backline, therefore, is a more stable final line, but less potential for creating turnovers higher up the field. The choice is whether to encourage a more measured game in which possession is traded back and forth relatively slowly, or a more frenetic game characterized by wild twists and turns. Neither approach is intrinsically superior, but given Chicago’s personnel, they should probably prefer the former, especially against North Carolina.

The Courage’s greatest strength is in transition. They are unparalleled in their collective movement and resulting capacity to ruthlessly exploit space. North Carolina on the move is a terrifying sight to behold. But they are (relatively) weaker against a stable, organized defense, which often forces them into low-percentage shots from distance. They also depend relatively little on creative possession from their attacking midfielders. Both Dunn and Debinha are generally just dangerous, if not more so, without the ball.

Ertz’s disruptive abilities as a midfielder probably offer less value under these conditions. North Carolina doesn’t rely much on complicated passing maneuvers that are susceptible to being broken up. And they absolutely relish a fast-paced game with a lot of aggressive movement. Their whole approach is to capitalize on bulk. Opponents who up the tempo and try to force play absolutely risk playing into their hands.

This isn’t a pure open-and-shut case. A lot depends on which Katie Naughton is available on Sunday. At this time last year she looked like a fringe national team quality defender, with good instincts and good physicality. But for most of this year, she looked well off the pace, making lots of mistakes both small and large. If the Red Stars can get the good version of Naughton, there’s a case for loading up the central midfield with Ertz, Colaprico, Brian, and DiBernardo and doing everything possible to muck up the game. Fight to a standstill there, count on your strong defensive fullbacks to lock down their counterparts from Carolina, kick long balls at Kerr when you have the chance, and hope she can magic up a goal. It wouldn’t be a pretty game, but you only have to look back to the 2017 final to see Portland forcing a physical disruptive game on the Courage and scraping a victory in the process. Chicago certainly has the ability to do the same if they want to attempt it.

But on balance, Chicago look like a much better team with Ertz in the backline. And not only does this setup allow them to play better in general, it also gives them the chance to dictate play better, something that is absolutely critical if they hope to ride the waves of the North Carolina attack.

Route Two Soccer: My 2019 NWSL Awards Ballot

Posted on by Backline Soccer

It’s time for some end of the year votes. Here’s my take on who should win the big awards.

MVP

  1. Sam Kerr

  2. Casey Short

  3. Christen Press

  4. Crystal Dunn

  5. Andi Sullivan

I am a longtime advocate of the ‘goals are overrated’ thesis, and have often been frustrated that the MVP award is really just a proxy for the Golden Boot award. But I don’t see how you could reasonably argue for anyone other than Sam Kerr as the 2019 NWSL MVP. She’s playing on an absolutely ridiculous level, and there’s no one else in the world who can match it right now. She participated directly in 23 goals (18 goals + 5 assists). That’s more than two entire teams scored (Sky Blue finished with 20 goals and Houston with 21). And she left for a month to go to the World Cup!

The gap between #1 and #2 is large, but the others are fairly close. In second place I have Casey Short, who deserves a huge amount of credit for the Red Stars’ best season yet (more on her below). After that I’ve got Christen Press and Crystal Dunn, both of whom missed about half the season but were so otherworldly-good during their limited time that they sneak onto the list. Dunn is the piece that transforms North Carolina from a very good team into an unbeatable one, while Press is the difference between Utah as a struggling bottom-feeder and a playoff contender. In fifth place I have Andi Sullivan, who took a massive step forward after a disappointing first season. Of all the players left off the World Cup roster, she’s probably the most likely to muscle her way into the Olympic 18 for 2020.

 

Rookie of the Year

  1. Bethany Balcer

  2. Sam Staab

  3. Gabby Seiler

This is one of the deepest rookie classes we’ve seen in a long time. Just consider that players like Tierna Davidson and Jordan DiBiasi don’t even make the top three. 

You could make a strong case for Staab as the winner here. Defending is hard, especially when you cycle out your entire defensive line and swap in a bunch of first and second year players. And Staab stepped into the role seamlessly, helping Washington produce one of the league’s stingiest defenses. But ultimately I sided with Balcer, who not only poured in goals but who also proved critical to building play and to an aggressive defensive press. 

Still, as good as both Staab and Balcer were, they only top this list because of Seiler’s season-ending injury. It’s no coincidence that Portland stumbled badly once Seiler was unavailable. She was central to orchestrating their possession. There are few players in the world with her positional awareness and passing acumen. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see a full season from her.

Goalkeeper of the Year

  1. Kailen Sheridan

  2. Aubrey Bledsoe

  3. Casey Murphy

Plenty of strong competitors here, including a few that were very good in limited minutes after spending a bunch of time away for the World Cup. I have Sheridan above the crowd for her consistency and range of abilities. She’s excellent at stopping shots, good at collecting crosses and controlling her box, and reasonably good with her feet. She struggled a bit in 2018, and understandably so given the horror show of the defense in front of her. But with a stabilized unit this year, she played with confidence and calmness, and was a big part of the reason Sky Blue conceded 18 fewer goals this season than they did last year. In fact, if you go by the advanced stats, she’s responsible for the majority of that improvement.

Defender of the Year

  1. Casey Short

  2. Megan Oyster

  3. Jaelene Hinkle

We sometimes throw superlatives around a little too easily, but Casey Short had a genuinely unbelievable year. She was voted on the Team of the Month for every single month of the season, and deservedly so. She’s always been a great defender, but took it to another level this year. She can play on either side, giving her team the flexibility to shut down whichever wing might pose a greater threat on the day. Her footwork is rock solid, her positioning good. And she even contributes a decent amount going forward. Just the complete package.

Oyster has been a stealth candidate for one of the league’s best center backs for a few years now, and this year was no different. You could make a similar case for her partner Lou Barnes, but for my money Oyster is the more important player at this point, thanks to her range and her anticipation. 

The list is rounded out with Hinkle, who is not without controversy, and who is rarely talked about as one of the key figures on this absurdly dominant North Carolina team. But she is the best attacking fullback in the league by a long way, and contributes quite a bit defensively as well.  

Coach of the Year

  1. Vlatko Andonovski

  2. Paul Riley

  3. Rory Dames

The easiest vote on the ballot – even easier than picking Kerr. What Andonovski managed this year, taking an injury-ravaged Reign team to the playoffs, is arguably the greatest coaching accomplishment the league has yet seen. As with all of Vlatko’s teams, they were defensively solid, calm in possession, and consistently hard to break down. To play that way under the best of conditions is impressive; to manage it through unprecedented roster turnover is genuinely astonishing. 

We’ve grown used to the dominance of North Carolina but it’s still worth noting how Riley has been able to keep his team firing on all cylinders. It’s always hard to come back after a record-breaking season, and they could easily have fallen to pieces once they started to struggle a bit early in the season. But he kept them moving and once everyone returned from the World Cup, they sliced through the rest of the league like a hot knife through butter. 

Rounding out the list is Rory Dames, whose Red Stars just put together their most complete season yet. I’ve written a lot about Chicago in the past few years, wondering why this collection of exceptional players couldn’t ever quite play up to their abilities. In 2019, they did it. This is now the smoothest-passing and most aesthetically-pleasing team in the league to watch, and the results have followed as well.

Team of the Season

Christen Press – Sam Kerr – Carli Lloyd

Crystal Dunn – Andi Sullivan – Kristie Mewis

Jaelene Hinkle – Megan Oyster – Becky Sauerbrunn – Casey Short

Kailen Sheridan

Most of these should be obvious from the comments above. But it’s worth noting Kristie Mewis, who is playing some of the best soccer of her life, and Carli Lloyd who continutes to shut up all her critics (myself included). Becky Sauerbrunn isn’t really Becky Sauerbrunn anymore, but she’s still great, and still somehow consistently underrated.

Second XI

Yuki Nagasato – Lynn Williams – Kristen Hamilton

Debinha – Sarah Killion – Denise O’Sullivan

Meghan Klingenberg – Abby Erceg – Julie Ertz – Tori Huster

Aubrey Bledsoe

Lots of great players here, including several that I’ve called overrated in the past. But not even I can deny how critical both Debinha and O’Sullivan have been to sustaining the North Carolina machine. I would never have guessed that Tori Huster would be in my second XI as a right back of all things, but she made a strong transition into the job. 

The three toughest calls were leaving out Christine Sinclair, Gabby Seiler, and Morgan Brian, each of whom was exceptional in limited minutes. But spots are limited and ultimately I decided to err in favor of players like Killion, O’Sullivan, and Williams who contributed a lot more bulk. 

 

Route Two Soccer: Chicago’s Win Over Houston Bodes Well for Their End-of-Season Hopes

Posted on by Backline Soccer

It’s been a puzzling season for the Chicago Red Stars. They were supposed to dominate during the World Cup break, when they held onto most of their key players even as all the other top teams were decimated. But they struggled mightily during that period. Then they came out of the World Cup break on fire, reeling off five consecutive wins, only to turn around and lose back-to-back games to the two worst teams in the league.

Looking at the roster, they should easily make the playoffs. And yet here they are, right in the thick of a tough race over the final month.

It’s always hard to make predictions about this team, but on the evidence of this weekend’s performance against Houston, they might just have kicked things back into gear at the key time. It was an accomplished, comprehensive, and thoroughly dominant result, and a demonstration of just how good this Red Stars team has the potential to be.

As I flagged last week, Chicago has faced significant problems this year in the central defense, and that was addressed directly by coach Rory Dames’s lineup as the two best center backs on the roster were finally moved back into the central defense. Julie Ertz and Tierna Davidson bring a huge amount of value in their other roles, so it’s certainly not an easy choice to place them at center back. But for a team struggling to keep a tight ship, it made sense.

To some extent, the change was informed by the opponent. The Dash are one of the league’s weakest teams at building play through the middle, making it far easier for Chicago to get by without Ertz in the holding role to break up possession. Where they do pose a threat is in quick counters and out wide. Dames countered this by matching the ever-adaptable Casey Short up against Kealia Ohai, and by using the lightning-fast Sarah Gorden on the opposite flank. This arrangement shored up the middle by removing the shaky Katie Naughton, and strengthened the wide defense.

It also had an additional advantage: with Ertz and Davidson at center back, Chicago were ideally suited to pass through and around a scurrying Houston press. Few, if any, central defenders in the league are as comfortable on the ball as this pair. If the Dash are closing down Morgan Brian or Dani Colaprico coming for the ball, it was very easy for Davidson or Ertz to simply dribble forward to create new angles.

The only real danger here was overconfidence. At times, Chicago seemed to double down so much on beating the press that they played themselves into danger. But once they found their rhythm, it was extremely comfortable for the Red Stars to build from the back.

And this set the tone for the whole game. Chicago didn’t dominate possession, nor did they play a tiki-taka style. Instead, they held possession comfortably while drawing the Dash forward, and then pounced, moving the ball quickly into space. You can see it from the goals.

For the first, Morgan Brian received the ball around the halfway line, picked her head up and saw a clear, direct vertical line. One beautifully weighted pass, a single touch from Kerr, and Chicago scored. The whole move took 8 seconds.

For the second, Davidson intercepted a pass, found Nagasato in tons of space, who passed to Kerr, who dropped the ball back to DiBernardo. In those few seconds, Nagasato had raced forward and was now ready to receive another simple, lovely vertical pass from DiBernardo. She then slid the ball between two converging defenders to Kerr, who let it roll and then unleashed a shot. Five passes in about 12 seconds. 2-0.

For the third, Naeher gathered the ball, passed to Brian, who advanced it to Colaprico, who sent it back to Davidson, who found Short out wide. Short received the ball well behind the halfway line, had time to watch the forward runs, and launched a ball over the top. McCaskill ran it down, beating Amber Brooks who inexplicably let it roll, and shinned it past the keeper and into the net. Five passes in 15 seconds. 3-0.

This is what we’ve been expecting from Chicago for so long. They have the personnel to attack with lightning speed and precision. Not because their players are particularly pacey, but because of their collective ability to pick out passes, isolate defenders, and capitalize on space.

Obviously, it doesn’t hurt to have Sam Kerr leading the attack. We all know how good she is, and yet her conversion rates continue to astound.

But this is by no means a one-woman show. After a poor start to the season, Yuki Nagasato is back in good form. Dani Colaprico also seems to have righted the ship and found some of the precision that usually defines her game. But perhaps the most important cog in the machine is Morgan Brian. After several lost years between 2016 and 2018, it’s now been roughly a year that she’s been mostly fit and very good. But her performances over the past few weeks are another step above. She still might never get back to where she was at the end of 2015, but for the first time in a very long time, it feels like she’s back in the conversation for being one of the best midfielders in the league. Her calm possession and incredible field vision are critical to this style of play, and if she can keep it up, it could be the difference that finally earns Chicago that playoff victory they’ve been seeking for so long.

Nothing is set in stone. Chicago have looked great before, only to fall away just as they seemed to be poised to grab hold of the league. And while they could afford to live without Ertz against the relatively frail Houston midfield, they might not have that luxury against a team like Portland or North Carolina. And for all the great performances lately, they haven’t been getting the best from Vanessa DiBernardo, another key player who looks like she’s carrying some significant nagging injuries.

So everything could very well still fall apart. But if anyone can disrupt the duopoly at the top of the league, Chicago is probably your best bet. If they can continue to play like this, they can beat anyone.

Route Two Soccer: Handicapping the NWSL Playoff Race

Posted on by Backline Soccer

The NWSL regular season concludes in a little over five weeks. That’s five more weeks for teams to sort themselves. Who will host home playoffs? Who will end up on the outside looking in?

A few weeks ago, it looked like things might end up finishing with more of a whimper than a bang, but thanks to some compelling results, we’re in for a bumpy ride, with every spot in the table still up for grabs. This column will assess the chances for each of the teams still in the race.

1. Portland Thorns (36 points) 

(at Utah, North Carolina, Houston, at Reign, Washington)

The Thorns are in the pole position, with a five point lead over North Carolina. The Courage do have two games in hand, and a head-to-head clash with the Thorns still on the calendar, so the lead certainly isn’t safe. But those points already in the bank are critical, and (with a 9 point lead over the fifth place Reign) they’re probably the only team in the league that’s effectively locked up a playoff spot.

The emergence of Midge Purce as a major goal-scoring threat has been the story of the season, but the fate of the Thorns ultimately still depends more on the old guard than anyone else. Can Christine Sinclair keep defying time, can Tobin Heath find her top level more consistently, can Emilys Sonnett and Menges continue to hold down the backline? Those are the key questions for the Thorns. Keep the engine running, and the goals will keep pouring in.

The only ‘problem’ for Portland is that they’re facing a pretty tough run-in. Four of their five remaining matches are against playoff contenders. Still, the way they’ve been playing, there’s no reason to expect them to falter. It’s hard to bet against North Carolina closing the gap, but I expect Portland to barely hold them off and take home the Shield.

2. North Carolina Courage (31 points)

(at Sky Blue, at Portland, Orlando, Houston, at Utah, at Washington, Sky Blue)

When everyone is at full strength, North Carolina is the best team in the league. We saw clear evidence of that last year, and even this year’s slightly-diminished version of the squad has still shown the ability to dominate the league. Still, they’ve dug themselves into a bit of a hole, and will have to work pretty quickly to get back out if they want to top the table once again. Their run-in isn’t especially tough in terms of opponents—with games against the four bottom teams on the list. But those first five games come at a breakneck pace—spaced out over just 15 days in mid-September.

If everyone can stay fresh, and if coach Paul Riley can work his secondary players into the lineup effectively, they should come out of that period with a playoff spot locked down. And they might even have retaken first place from the Thorns. But that’s a big if. This is a team that’s played a lot of soccer in the past year, and is facing a number of minor ailments.

The strike force should be fine. The only real problem is figuring out how to get enough minutes for all the options, with Lynn Williams, Jess McDonald, and Kristen Hamilton all deserving starters. The crunch of matches will simply allow for some necessary rotation.

The midfield, however, is a bigger question mark. Over the past two dominant years, Riley has shown a clear preference for a 4222 box midfield, which relies heavily on the high work rates of Sam Mewis and McCall Zerboni in the deeper positions. But Zerboni has recently seen more time as a substitute, and Denise O’Sullivan can’t cover quite the same ground as a replacement. Can Carolina continue to play the same way—in order to get as much time on the ball as possible for Crystal Dunn and Debinha—or will Riley be forced to tinker with his system?

It would be extremely surprising if North Carolina didn’t end up hosting a home playoff match. But given the issues they’ve faced trying to maintain the delicate balance of their system, you’d probably have to bet on them dropping some points between now and October. And that might put the Shield out of their reach.

3. Chicago Red Stars (29 points)

(Houston, at Orlando, at Sky Blue, Washington, Utah)

This team is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Look at their roster, and it’s hard to understand how they’re not topping the table. Watch them when everything is clicking, and it’s hard to understand how they ever lose a game to anyone. With Sam Kerr and Yuki Nagasato, they have arguably the best strikeforce in the league. With Julie Ertz, Morgan Brian, Dani Colaprico, and Vanessa DiBernardo, they have arguably the best midfield in the league. Their goalkeeper is the number one for the US team. Casey Short has been the best defender in the league this year.

So why are they mired in third place? How did they win five in a row, and then fall to the two worst teams in the league? I see three plausible explanations.

First, injuries. Most of this team is banged up. While that midfield quartet are incredibly impressive, they have also faced some niggling problems that keep them from playing every game. And when they do play, they’re generally not 100%. The Red Stars haven’t faced the kind of devastating injury procession suffered by the Reign, but persistent low-grade problems take their toll.

Second, tactics. With a high-octane creative midfield, and with strikers capable of linking play, this team should be regularly out-passing the opposition. But with some limited exceptions, that hasn’t really been the case. Far too often, the team slows down and reverts to the strategy of kicking long balls to Kerr and hoping for some magic. Kerr is good enough that this sometimes works, but it’s far less than Chicago ought to have on offer, given the talent they can put out there.

Third, the central defense. The Red Stars have three world class centerbacks, neither of whom have spent much time in the position. There’s a good reason for that. Ertz is also a world-class midfielder and arguably better used in that position. While Tierna Davidson has increasingly looked like a long-term fit at left back, and Casey Short is one of the world’s best right backs. But while there are good reasons for the choice, there’s no denying that Chicago have looked mighty fragile in the critical central positions. Sarah Gorden has had an excellent year there, and is a serviceable replacement. But she’s also not quite at the level of the world’s very best. And Katie Naughton has had a very tough year, after some excellent work in previous seasons. Put it all together, and you have a team that’s conceded 26 goals—third-most in the league.

Can Chicago fix these problems? I really have no idea. It wouldn’t surprise me if they reel off another run of wins to shoot up the table. And it also wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle enough to put playoff qualification in doubt. But they only have five games left, which doesn’t leave them a lot of margin for error.

4. Utah Royals (28 points)

(Portland, at Houston, at Reign, North Carolina, at Chicago, Houston)

It’s been a tale of two halves for Utah this year. Of the eight games with Christen Press, they’ve won five and drawn two, accounting for 17 of their 28 total points. In ten games without her, they’ve only managed 11 points. Basically, without Press they’re a contender for the bottom of the table. With her, they’re a contender for the Shield. That’s just how good she’s been this year.

Fortunately for Utah, Press appears to be healthy and ready to go for the final month. That’s going to be crucial for a team with only six goal-scorers on the whole season. They’ll need Press and Amy Rodriguez to continue working together well, and will also need some of the secondary attackers to provide a bit more.

The other key for Utah is their defensive core. The Royals have the best defense in the league, even in a year when Rachel Corsie hasn’t looked her best and Becky Sauerbrunn is starting to wear down a bit. That’s a testament to the organization instilled by coach Laura Harvey, and to the tireless efforts of Desiree Scott patrolling the midfield.

Utah have a tough schedule, with matches against the other four top playoff challengers, but in some sense that’s an advantage. At a minimum, it puts their chances in their own hands. Win a few of those games, and they’ll not only get the points they need, they’ll deny critical points to their competitors.

5. Reign FC (27 points)

(Orlando, at Washington, Utah, Sky Blue, Portland, at Orlando)

It’s astonishing that the Reign are still hanging around the playoff race given the absurd injury list they’ve suffered this year. Coach Vlatko Andonovski deserves a lot of credit for holding this team together with bubble gum and some bits of string, for aggressively working the transfer market to bring in replacements, and for getting the absolute most from a series of useful-but-limited players.

The big question mark here is Megan Rapinoe. If she can come back, and play like she did in 2018, that might well be enough to muscle the Reign into the playoffs. But if she can’t return, or if she struggles to work back to form, it’s hard to tell where the goals are going to come from.

The Reign have—out of necessity—adopted a bunch of tactical innovations this year. The most recent iteration came against North Carolina, with the Reign choosing a 4321 Christmas tree formation. It was an interesting idea, but more a matter of desperation than desirability. In this formation, Rosie White and Bethany Balcer operated as the two attacking mids. And while they did their best, it’s simply not a position where either is likely to find much success. It made for a toothless attack, and a defensive core that worked hard but were never going to be able to withstand the relentless pressure.

Will we see further innovations as the Reign move on to face some weaker opponents? Most likely. Will it be enough to secure some critical victories? It’s very hard to say. Far be it for me to bet against Vlatko, but it will most likely take some additional wizardry for them to sneak one of those final playoff spots.

Keep a close eye on that September 18 match against Utah. These could easily end up being the two teams vying for that final playoff spot, and the head-to-head record is dead-even right now. A win their could be the key to a Reign playoff appearance. Anything less, and they might end up on the outside looking in.

6. Washington Spirit (25 points)

(Reign, at Chicago, at Houston, North Carolina, at Orlando, at Portland)

Washington sit three points out of the playoff spots, trailing two teams. With six games left, that’s plenty of time to make up the gap. But it’s going to be mighty tough to implement in practice. The Spirit have a very tough run-in, with away matches against Portland and Chicago, in addition to games against the Reign and North Carolina. They’ll probably need to get at least six points from those four games if they’ll have any hope of making the playoffs, and that’s a big ask.

At the same time, this is a team that’s managed to stick around in the playoff race all season despite getting a mere combined eight appearances from Rose Lavelle and Mallory Pugh. If they can get their young playmakers back, and see them work with fellow young standout Andi Sullivan, there’s no reason to think the Spirit can’t hang offensively with anyone in the league.

The big question, then, is whether the defense can continue to hold together. It’s astonishing that they’ve held up as well as they have—given a backline filled with rookies in a league where even very talented young defenders have generally struggled to adapt. If Sam Staab and Paige Nielsen can continue to hold the line, and if Aubrey Bledsoe can continue her excellent form, the Spirit might just be able to give themselves a chance to sneak that final playoff spot.

I wouldn’t bet on it, and they really don’t have much margin for error. But it’s a great sign that they’re still within shouting distance at this point.

The rest

In seventh place, the Houston Dash aren’t technically out of the running. But they have an exceptionally tough set of remaining fixtures (with five of the six matches against teams currently in the playoff spots), and would probably need at least four wins from those matches. Given their current form, it’s far more likely that they’ll get further away from the playoff spots than that they’ll close the gap.

Meanwhile, after the horrible race to the bottom between Sky Blue and Washington last year, it’s nice to see the two trailing teams playing some decent soccer. Orlando and Sky Blue could each easily play spoiler to some of the playoff hopefuls, and (given that tough Houston run-in) could conceivably shoot for 7th place. Given how horribly they both started the season, that’s real progress.

Route Two Soccer: Fishlock Returns and Immediately Makes the Difference

Posted on by RJ Allen

For most teams, the World Cup means losing your key players. And Reign FC are no exception. They’ll spend the next month or two missing the likes of Megan Rapinoe, Jodie Taylor, and Allie Long. But they’re also the rare team for whom this month means getting a key player back. With the end of the European club soccer calendar, Jess Fishlock’s loan period to Olympique Lyonnais has concluded, and she’s now back home in the pacific northwest.

Given the travel, and the potential lingering effects of her work to help Lyon take home a fourth consecutive Champions League title, there was some speculation about whether she would even play this weekend. And according to head coach Vlatko Andonovski, even after they knew she would start there were serious plans to limit her minutes. But as the saying goes: the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry when dragons get involved.

Because Fishlock just made too big a difference, and the Reign desperately needed her out there to see the game out. Her effect could be felt at three different levels, all of which are important in their own way.

The first is the simplest: her technical ability is top-notch, and helped solidify a Reign midfield that has looked shockingly weak for much of the season. Fishlock wasn’t even especially sharp by her lofty standards, but all the key features were there: her coolness in possession, her incisive passing, and her ability to generate space to receive the ball and relieve teammates under pressure. Having a dynamo in the midfield will go a long way to get the ship back on track.

Fishlock’s second contribution was tactical. Here, things were a tad surprising, with Andonovski choosing to bring her in as a #10 at the tip of the central midfield triangle, rather than in a more holding role. At times, she was really playing as more of a second striker than anything else.

The more obvious move might have been to leave Fishlock in a box-to-box role, leaving Bev Yanez at the top of the midfield. Yanez has always been more of a striker-turned-midfielder than anything else. But as Andonovski noted after the game, she’s also a sponge for training, and has made big strides in her tactical awareness. She also, for whatever reason, has struggled to impose herself on games in the forward attacking role this season. But freed from some of those responsibilities, she had her best game of 2019, while Fishlock ran the show in front of her.

We’ve grown used to fantastical things from Fishlock, but it’s worth taking a moment to reflect on just how difficult it is to slide so easily into what is effectively a brand new attacking unit. Before Monday’s game, she had played zero total minutes with the entire front three. And that front three was also all playing together for the first time. With the departure of Jodie Taylor, Bethany Balcer slotted into the central position, allowing Darian Jenkins and Shea Groom to fan out on either side. There is boatloads of talent in that trio, but no one would have been surprised if it hadn’t quite gelled. But from the first minute, the Reign looked deadly, and Fishlock played a major role in binding all the pieces together. You could see her directing runs, and could hear her calling out directions—every bit the player-manager that we saw from her a couple winters ago in Australia.

This was critically important in the first half, when the Reign took the game directly to North Carolina, turning the tables a bit on last year’s champions by pressing hard and fast to disrupt play. It worked wonderfully, and a huge part of that is due to Fishlock’s directions. All too often, pressing in the NWSL is really more a matter of ball-chasing. But the Reign put on a clinic, with waves of pressure challenging the ball-carrier and closing down all her passing options. That’s obviously something that happens at the team level, but Fishlock was a critical piece of making it work.

Her third contribution to the team was psychological. It’s no surprise that a Vlatko Andonovski team played with confidence, but there’s still something impressive about taking on a team as good as North Carolina (even in their weakened form) and not backing down an inch. That’s what the Reign did in the first half, and it sure can’t have hurt to have a player like Fishlock to keep everyone on the same page. Then, during those critical twenty minutes in the middle of the second half—when NC often tear apart the opposition—the Reign bent but never broke. They even managed to produce the occasional chance of their own, with Groom pouncing on a defensive mistake to put her team up 2-0. While things did get a little nervy in the final minutes, the Reign held on to see out a much-needed win.

This wasn’t Fishlock’s best game, or really anywhere close. She understandably looked tired, and occasionally struggled with her touch. She missed a couple chances to split the defense. She was dispossessed more than you’d expect. But even accounting for all that, it was a critical intervention, and a demonstration of just how badly the Reign have missed her.

There were many interesting stories from this game—the debut of Casey Murphy in goal, the growing excitement surrounding Bethany Balcer, Shea Groom breaking her goal-scoring drought, a revitalized performance from Bev Yanez, rock-solid defending from Megan Oyster, and on and on. But intermixed with each of those stories is the return of Fishlock. A great player who makes everyone else around her play great. For the Reign and for neutrals, it’s great to have her back. For fans of other teams, not so much.

Route Two Soccer: Houston and Reign FC fight out a fascinating 1-1 draw

Posted on by RJ Allen

Houston and the Reign met this weekend for an enthralling and exciting game, which saw a lot of fast-paced play, some impressive performances on both sides, and more than a few mistakes. For a game that was a joy to watch, the key moments unfortunately often had more to do with errors than with execution. The key drama came at the end, with a penalty earned, and saved, in literally the final minute of the game. But for this article, I want to focus less on the goals and controversies and more on how the teams set themselves up. In each case, there are fascinating lessons to learn about how these two strong teams will play in 2019.

Houston set up very similar to their approach from 2018, in a 4-3-3, with three central midfielders trying to occupy the middle, two wingers trying to cover some significant defensive responsibilities while also getting forward to spread the opposition’s defensive line, and with play often going through Rachel Daly at the tip of the spear.

However, as the first half began to unfold, there was also some crucial differences. First, Houston pressed more aggressively here than they ever had the previous year. For a Reign team hoping to settle into the game by building out slowly, it was a nightmare, with orange shirts constantly interfering and disrupting play.

Second, new additions Sophie Schmidt and Christine Nairn provided precisely the kind of bite and positional awareness that Houston was desperately missing in their previous campaign. Schmidt in particular shined in this game, constantly clogging up passing channels, stepping forward to disrupt play and intercept passes, and making measured forward runs when the situation called for it. Her performance was a perfect example of how installing a solid gyroscope in the holding role can stabilize the entire team’s structure. And while Nairn was slightly less involved, her presence was also crucial. She had a knack for always seeming to be in the right place, receiving short passes and immediately turning to push the ball forward into space.

The result was a Houston team that still played much the same as in previous years–a direct style, focused on quick attacking passes, trying to create space for the wingers to move at speed–but which also managed to control possession, ending up well ahead of the Reign in both passing attempts and completions. For a team that regularly looked helpless trying to keep the ball last year, this is a significant change.

In the first half, this combination was lethal and the Dash were rampant. They closed down the Reign possession high up the pitch, forcing awkward passes, and generally making it impossible for them to play. This is precisely what led to the opening goal. Though the proximate cause was Theresa Nielsen dilly-dallying in her own box and getting stripped of possession by Nichelle Prince, the setup was a high press that forced the ball back into that position in the first place.

However, things did not go quite as well in the second half, which is a good indication of the risks of this new, more aggressive Houston approach. Whereas last year, after the Dash took a lead, they could rely on dropping deep and setting a low block to frustrate the opposition, this team didn’t seem as willing to commit to defending deep. But they also couldn’t maintain the same levels of high pressure. As a result, the Reign found their way back into the game, finding more room to work with, and probing for gaps in between the Houston lines.

That provides a clear indication of where the Dash will need to focus their attention going forward. Watching them use the whole pitch this weekend was a great sign that they see themselves as capable of taking the game to the opposition. The big question is whether they will be able to successfully adapt their tactics from game to game as opponents and conditions change. New head coach James Clarkson certainly defined this as a project going forward, saying “we have to be able to adapt our tactics, our formation, and the way we play. We’ll look at each opponent separately and develop a game plan.”

For a Houston team that played much the same last year no matter who or when they played, that will be a real change.

For the Reign, this was very much a game of two halves. But even more than that, it was a game of two halves in the first half alone. They came out in a 4-2-3-1, with Allie Long and Morgan Andrews in the double pivot, and with Shea Groom as the number 10. This is a setup with a lot of potential. Long is an excellent player in that #6 role, especially when she is paired with another holding player, since it gives her license to step forward when useful. It also puts Groom into her best role, giving her the ability to move in between the lines and to move with the ball at her feet.

However, the Reign struggled mightily to get ahold of the game, and before they really had a chance to even show how this approach would work, Jasmyne Spencer had to come off for a knee injury, forcing a reallocation of players. Elise Kellond-Knight entered, taking one of the holding roles, while Long moved forward and Groom moved out right. Unfortunately for the Reign, none seemed all that comfortable for the rest of the first half. Long has obviously played the #10 role many times before, but she is not really a playmaker. Groom, similarly, has played on the right wing for most of her career, but was isolated for this period, struggling to put herself into positions to receive the ball. Kellond-Knight simply did not look up to the pace of the game. She did very little in possession, nor was she able to exert a calming influence in defense.

To the extent that they found success in the opening half, it came almost entirely from the work of Darian Jenkins and Celia Jiménez Delgado down the left flank. Every attempt to build through the middle faltered, as Andrews and Kellond-Knight were harried in possession.

The Reign also faced real difficulties in defense. This was mostly not down to tactics, but more a matter of execution. In particular, Theresa Nielsen in the right back position seemed well off the pace, and was repeatedly beat by Nichelle Prince, most notably for the goal. It didn’t help that she was given relatively little support from the right wingers–with Spencer doing almost no tracking back, through Groom did put in more of a defensive shift. The center backs were also exposed several times. Rachel Daly is a lot to handle, but they let her wriggle free more than they would have liked. And the situation wasn’t helped when the Reign were forced into a second injury substitution in the 40th minute, with Megan Oyster coming off.

However, after the halftime break, they came out looking far more settled, and were able to exert far more influence on the game. There were no major structural changes, but there was one interesting wrinkle that seemed to make a difference. While Groom continued to play on the right, she regularly pinched in, and also pressed forward. In the deeper role, she added an additional body to the central midfield, giving the Reign extra numbers and helping them stabilize there. In the more advanced positions, she almost functioned like a second striker, allowing them to operate as a sort of lopsided 4-4-2, with Groom back in that playmaking space that the initial setup was supposed to grant her.

4-2-3-1 transitioning into a lopsided 4-4-2

With this change, the Reign found far more success with the ball, and were finally able to get Jodie Taylor regularly involved. It created a number of good chances, like this one here, which shows the potential of players who can move into these key central players with no clear markers to corral them. In those gaps, Groom began to play a more significant role, receiving the ball with space to dribble and playmake. And as Houston struggled to challenge her, it also created more room for Long to do what she does best: float away from her markers, receive the ball, and quickly push play forward. That potential is illustrated in this move:

Groom receiving the ball in a central position
Working with space to quickly progress the ball forward
Putting Taylor through on goal

Of course, there are also dangers to this approach. With Groom pinched in, the Reign often left huge exposed spaces on the right wing. To compensate, Long put in a good shift, often drifting wider to fill that space when needed, and Nielsen got more into the swing of the game. But the Reign were also lucky that Houston did little to capitalize on the opportunities.

Going forward, it will be interesting to see whether this was a mere one-off experiment, or whether the Reign decide to employ Groom in this sort of creative winger role more regularly. It’s certainly a role that the Reign have some familiarity with – as Megan Rapinoe has increasingly played in precisely this sort of creative winger role. At the moment, they seem to lack the personnel to make it truly effective. Having to use Long in the #10 left them with two holding players that looked overmatched for much of the game. But once Jess Fishlock returns, which would free Long to play her best position as a ball-controlling #6, this could be a potentially devastating setup.

With the World Cup coming, the Reign will be losing their key creative spark, Megan Rapinoe. This game went some way to demonstrating that they could well survive that absence. Groom on the right could play much the same creative role, and Jenkins showed clearly that she is more than capable of producing a dominant attacking performance as well. If Long – whose ability to dictate play and keep possession is absolutely critical – goes to France, that may be far more difficult to sustain. But if not, the Reign could be one of the few teams to survive those months relatively unscathed.

Route Two Soccer: Replacement Level in the NWSL – Part 2

Posted on by RJ Allen

Last week I discussed the theory of replacement level valuation, and described some general ideas about how it can be usefully employed to think about the NWSL. This week, I want to dig into things a bit more, with four observations about player value in the league, informed by the idea of replacement level.

1. Setting replacement level in a precarious league

Replacement level is not static. If overall talent levels improve, so should the replacement level. And in a league like the NWSL, with a precarious employment structure, the movement is probably more significant than in other more settled systems.

While early retirements are growing less common, it remains true that plenty of good players leave the game for reasons that have little to do with their abilities on the pitch. Christina Gibbons’ recent retirement is a good example. She wasn’t forced out by lack of quality; she left because the hassles of trying to maintain a professional career for little money and no amenities seem to have overwhelmed the desire to play.

A league which can’t necessarily compete with economic opportunities in the private sector will naturally suffer more turnover and loss of talent than one where players make hundreds of thousands as a baseline. That in turn means that marginal player availability is often determined more by the willingness to accept a lack of compensation than by a strict accounting of ability. As a result, simply showing up and turning in 90 minutes is generally worth more in the NWSL than it would be in a league with fairer compensation.

However, as time goes on and standards improve, more players are willing to stick it out. This means that replacement level is going up over time. A player who was modestly above replacement level in 2014 might not be any longer, simply because the overall tide is rising.

2. Measuring modest contributions

The concept of replacement level is a useful device to square some circles within discussions about NWSL talent. Too often, conversations exist in a framework where a player is either excellent or useless, without any clear sense of the space in between. But in fact, the league is full of players who are contributing modest value, without necessarily rising to the level of average.

In a league with nine teams, there are probably only about 50 players who could reasonably be described as average or better. But 188 players received minutes last year. How do we account for the players in the middle of the pack? Here I’m thinking of players like Adriana Leon, Joanna Lohman, Christen Westphal, Amy Rodriguez, Rebecca Quinn, Thembi Kgatlana, Brooke Elby, etc.

With any players, it’s obviously important to look at context. What did their team ask of them, how well did they fulfill their role, what alternatives were there? What sort of potential do they have? Obviously, Andi Sullivan is a different sort of player from Brooke Elby, and it wouldn’t be helpful to pretend their total contributions could be measured by one universal metric. At the same time, if you want to tell the story of the season, it’s useful to have some form of cross-contextual comparison.

So with players like this, one useful perspective might be to emphasize that they logged important minutes, and provided meaningful value, to the extent that they performed above the replacement level, while also recognizing that their contributions were probably below the average production levels in the role. This can then be supplemented with more specific evaluations.

For example, while Elby and Sullivan both contributed some value, Elby was only expected to be a role player. She was selected 23rdd in the Breakers dispersal draft—almost literally the definition of a replacement player. That she contributed real positive value helped her teams enormously. Sullivan, meanwhile, was the top pick in the draft, and Washington was counting on her to step into the pro game immediately. While she wasn’t hopeless (she did contribute real value), merely being above replacement level was extremely damaging for the Spirit who needed more.

Sullivan clearly has the higher ceiling, and likely will have many strong seasons to come. But in 2018, her performance hurt Washington a lot because they were counting on more.

3. Replacement level variations across roles (the problem of too many good forwards)

Another important feature of an analysis informed by replacement level: emphasis on the distribution of talent across roles. Specifically, the imbalance between attacking and defensive talent. Because the reality is that the overwhelming percentage of top-quality players in the league fill attacking roles. This is partly a feature of the game itself—where individual brilliance matters more in the attack, while team structure matters more in the defense—but it’s also a consequence of the developmental structure in the US system. With college still the dominant training system, players are free to continue as forwards long past when they might have been forced to switch in a world where the pipeline narrowed earlier.

Whatever the cause, it’s clear that the league is stacked with attacking talent. Unfortunately for the players below the top tier, this significantly reduces their value, because replacement level is fluid and depends on the actual distribution of talent.

For a given team, their 4th or 5thh choice striker is probably going to be close to replacement level. She is the player who can perform satisfactorily and do a job, but is well outside the top talents in the league. But look at even a team as hapless as Sky Blue and realize that they have Naho Kawasumi, Carli Lloyd, Savannah McCaskill, and Imani Dorsey. Not to mention Jen Hoy. And McKenzie Meehan. And Paige Monaghan and Kyra Carusa coming in.

These are all very good players. But when you do the same exercise across the league, you realize that every team is objectively stacked in their attack. Unfortunately, though, ‘stacked’ is ultimately a relative term. The problem for Sky Blue isn’t a lack of excellent players in the attack; the problem is that teams like North Carolina and Chicago are even more absurdly blessed.

But this means that there are dozens of genuinely great attacking players who not only can’t get a regular starting job, they’re not even particularly close to one.

Adriana Leon is particularly apposite example here. When the Boston Breakers folded, she entered the dispersal draft and fell to the 18thh pick. That felt low to many people, who pointed out her six goals for Boston in 2016. When she found no playing time in New Jersey and was eventually traded to Seattle for a 4th round pick, there was more outcry. A seasoned striker, a Canadian international no less, had to be worth more than a low draft pick.

But thinking about it in terms of replacement level can help clarify things a bit. Because the reality is: six goals in a season notwithstanding, Leon simply doesn’t have that impressive a record over her career. In 83 NWSL games, she notched 10 goals. That’s not nothing, but given the same opportunity to occupy a roster space, many other players might have found the net far more often, or contributed in other ways. Ultimately, strikers just aren’t scarce in the NWSL, while opportunities at striker very much are.

None of which is to suggest that Leon isn’t a good player. She certainly is. It’s just that she’s not clearly comparatively better than the many other good players who can fill the same role. Probably every team in the league would be happy to have her, but none of them would be willing to give up much (or any) value to do so. That’s because they’re not assessing her talent on an absolute scale; they’re looking at it comparatively.

Compare this to defense, and things look very different. Here, the replacement level is much higher as teams struggle to fill out their roster with players who can plausibly handle the job.

This is a big part of the reason why teams consistently try to shift attacking players back into more defensive roles. They’re trying to take advantage of their overabundance in one area to bolster themselves in another space. And it’s why positional flexibility is very helpful for marginal players. The ability to step into multiple roles increases their potential value over replacement.

4.Replacement level in a World Cup year

As we know, the World Cup takes place this summer. And just like in 2015, the NWSL will continue amidst the tournament, despite the removal of three dozen or so of its best players for a substantial chunk of the season. What’s more, the removal of talent is by no means balanced. Teams like North Carolina and Portland will lose most of their starting XIs, while Sky Blue, Washington, and Houston will be significantly less ravaged (as always, the wonderful NWSL roster sheets maintained by Jen Cooper are crucial here). To some extent this will have a balancing effect on the league, pushing everyone toward the middle.

But it also depends on how well teams manage their replacement markets. Team depth is always important, but especially in a season like this, when it will be significantly more tested. And it’s a reminder that ‘replacement level’ as an abstract concept is never quite the same as the actual replacement level for a specific team. Those that play the game well will assemble supporting casts that are better equipped to step into the breach. It’s a reason to pay special attention to the preseason this year, because that’s the time when the league’s replacement talent (recent college graduates, trialists, part-timers, etc.) have the chance to make their case.

Route Two Soccer: Projecting the NWSL Season

Posted on by RJ Allen

Projecting performance is difficult, even for highly qualified people. For those of us who don’t have decades of experience under our belts, it’s even harder. To clarify that point, I want to talk today about a simple but powerful idea which has helped guide conversations in baseball, and then apply it to a soccer context.

The idea is this: what if you designed a projection system so simple that a monkey could use it? At the time when this was first discussed, Friends was still on the air, so the guy who came up with it called his system a ‘Marcel Projection.’

The way it works is: you take the last three years of performance. Combine them together, but weight the most recent year most heavily, the middle year less heavily, and the most distant year the least. Then divide by your denominator, and that’s your projection. Depending on what you’re projecting, you might want to add some small other tweaks to normalize the data, but that’s really just about all there is to it.

The system is designed to project individual player performance, which is relatively easy to do in baseball (which is filled with quantifiable statistics). But for soccer purposes, where such stats are less available (and less relevant) I want to pull the camera out wider to look at an even more basic unit: the team.

To that end, here’s a Marcel projection for the 2019 NWSL standings:

TeamPointsGoalsGAGD
North Carolina Courage48452124
Portland Thorns43382315
Chicago Red Stars3733276
Seattle Reign3633267
Orlando Pride313333-1
Utah Royals312325-2
Houston Dash273037-7
Washington Spirit212336-13
Sky Blue212946-17

Producing this projection took about three minutes of work. I entered the results from 2016-2018* into an Excel sheet, weighted the seasons by a 5/4/3 ratio, and then generated a result.**

My ‘projection’ knows almost nothing about these teams. It doesn’t know who the coach is, which players had breakout seasons, what trades were made, who is coming back from injury. It doesn’t know style of play. It doesn’t know that it’s a World Cup year. All it knows is the bare results from the last three years.

And yet, I would wager that this projection ends up being pretty close to accurate. In fact, it will probably beat the projections from a lot of very intelligent people, who know far more about all those issues I just listed.

That’s because human beings are absolutely full of unquestioned biases, of all sorts. We overrate some players, while underrating others. We overstate the importance of some events while failing to properly include others. And there is the classic problem of punditry: it’s fun to predict change and boring to predict continuation of the status quo.

Now, I certainly don’t mean to suggest that there is no value in expert analysis. I only want to lay a marker for how to judge assessments. Because in the current women’s soccer ecosystem, there’s almost no accountability. Pundits are free to make predictions, but not only is there no one checking back to see what they got right and wrong, there isn’t even a structure for measuring success.

So things like a simple Marcel system are useful, if only because they generate baselines against which people can measure themselves. It may not be exciting to predict that everything will more-or-less remain the same. But it does have the virtue of generally being true. And that’s something that everyone involved in this business can use a reminder of now and again.

I’ll put together my own real projection once the season gets closer. When I do so, I’ll certainly think about all the little details of player movement and development. I’ll look at the schedule. I’ll consider how teams will deal with losing their national team talent for the World Cup. And I’ll try my level-best to produce something that is accurate.

But, to be honest, there’s every chance that the dumb Marcel from this column will end up being more accurate than my clever prediction to come.

* For the purposes of this exercise, I’m treating Western New York/North Carolina and FCKC/Utah as continuous teams, despite the name and venue changes.

** Eagle-eyed readers will notice that the goals, goals allowed, and goal difference don’t quite add up. That’s partly due to rounding errors (e.g. Orlando are actually projected to score 32.5 goals and concede 33.25, which is a GD of -1, even though both are listed as 33), but is mostly because the data includes two seasons of the Boston Breakers, who conceded rather a lot of goals. If you want, you could control for that and subtract one goal per every 24 that a team is expected to score.

Route Two Soccer: My 2018 NWSL awards ballot

Posted on by RJ Allen

It’s time for some end of the year votes. Here’s my take on who should win the big awards.

MVP

  1. Crystal Dunn
  2. Lindsey Horan
  3. McCall Zerboni
  4. Megan Rapinoe
  5. Sam Kerr

It’s the most wide-open field the league has ever seen this year. To my eyes, there are a half dozen serious candidates, with plenty of others where you could make a plausible case. That’s a reflection of the depth in the league, as well as the fact that a lot of potential candidates ended up missing time. I predict that Kerr will win—the Golden Boot winner has never failed to win the MVP, after all—and won’t really be upset if it happens. Despite missing a quarter of the season, she really is just that good.

Still, I have her toward the bottom of my shortlist, behind some players that I think provided a bit more all-around value. Dunn faded a bit in the back half of the season, dropping from ‘impossibly great’ to ‘very good,’ but I’m going to stick with her as my MVP. Compare this year’s NC to last year, and you can see the difference that Dunn makes. Without her, they were a powerful, dominant team—one of the best in the league. With her, they were superhuman, producing the best season that any team has ever managed in the NWSL, arguably the best single season from a women’s professional soccer team…like, ever.

Meanwhile, Lindsey Horan excels at literally everything, making her the linchpin of Portland’s attack and defense. McCall Zerboni does the dirty work that helps make North Carolina so unplayable, while also contributing plenty to the attack. Rapinoe might have been my #1 pick if she’d been able to play the whole season. When she’s at full strength, she’s the most impactful player in the league. It’s truly astonishing how much she’s been able to expand her game. So that’s five excellent choices, and it would be wonderful to see any of them win.

Rookie of the Year

  1. Linda Motlhalo
  2. Savannah McCaskill
  3. Imani Dorsey

This was not a strong year for rookies, to put it mildly. That’s partly a function of league contraction, which left far fewer opportunities than usual. It’s also a function of some big name rookies simply having down years. Andi Sullivan, for example, was a consensus #1 pick, one of the biggest talents to emerge from college in recent years. And she may yet come good, maybe as soon as next year. But at the moment, the performances haven’t been there.

By comparison, Linda Motlhalo was no one’s tip for the award back in March, but ended up lapping the field by a huge margin. She’s nowhere close to a star, and had plenty of bad moments, especially at the start of the season. But she played almost 2000 minutes, playing a critical role in binding together the surprisingly solid Houston midfield all year. And there’s a lot of value in simply showing up and being average. When you compare that to the rest of the rookie class, it becomes even more clear.

I have McCaskill second, despite more than a few anonymous performances over the season. It wasn’t the year we were all hoping for, but she provided some real drive in the Sky Blue attack that often sputtered without her. The same goes for Dorsey, whose arrival midway through the season gave the New Jersey side pace and precision they desperately needed. You could also put Veronica Latsko in the mix, who made a similar sort of impact in limited minutes for the Dash.

Goalkeeper of the Year

  1. Lydia Williams
  2. Adrianna Franch
  3. ????

The only real question here is Williams vs. Franch. I have no idea who belongs in third place, but I know they’re a country mile behind these top two. I went with Williams, who I think played a huge role in organizing that wonderful Seattle defense, but would have no problem with someone choosing Franch. Even with both missing significant time, I think the top two slots are locked down pretty easily here.

If you forced me to pick a #3, I guess I’d go with Alyssa Naeher, whose worrying loss of form compared to her peak of a couple years ago continued in 2018. But even with the occasional mishap, she’s still a solid keeper who turned in a decent year. I did consider Aubrey Bledsoe, but I just see too many mistakes there. She had a good season, and deserves credit for breaking the saves record. But that’s mostly a function of her defense letting in a ton of shots.

Defender of the Year

  1. Abby Erceg
  2. Jaelene Hinkle
  3. Becky Sauerbrunn

It’s always hard to know what to do with individual North Carolina players. Given how stacked the whole team is, it’s going to be easier for every specific player to shine. So I’m open to persuasion here. But Erceg was absolutely immense this year, doing plenty to maximize the value of their system: ranging into space to close down plays before they became dangerous, holding off one-on-one challenges, and winning tons of aerial challenges. Just a rock solid year from top to bottom.

Hinkle, meanwhile, was less impressive defensively—though she had a pretty good year there, too—but was outrageously good in the attack. She had the best year from a fullback by leaps and bounds, contributing more key passes than the best creative midfielders. This is not an exaggeration. She literally had more key passes than the best attacking players in the league. Look it up.

I seriously considering going with Megan Oyster as my third pick. She had a wonderful year for Seattle, but I ultimately had to trust my gut, which tells me that Sauerbrunn remains the most intelligent center back in the world. She’s not as dominant in close-quarters defending as she once was, but her anticipation of play is out of this world. And that’s the difference maker for me.

Once again, Emily Menges had a fantastic season, but just missed too much time. If she’d been able to play in 4-5 more games, I’d have her on this list.

Coach of the Year

  1. Paul Riley
  2. Vera Pauw
  3. Vlatko Andonovski

We’re blessed with tons of great choices here. In the end, though, you just can’t argue with what Paul Riley has done with the Courage. It’s the most cohesive and complete team ever assembled in US professional soccer, with every position contributing to the whole. Sure, they’ve got tons of great players. But he deserves a ton of credit for getting the most out of that roster, and helping players like Zerboni, Hinkle, and Lynn Williams develop from solid contributors into world-class talents.

Then there’s Pauw, who took a team that everyone (myself included) had pegged for last place, and kept them in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. If I sometimes had a hard time understanding why it was working, that might only makes it feel more impressive. I picked Riley at #1, in part because of the culture he’s built over the years. But given the situation in Houston at the start of the season, I’m not sure anyone had a more impressive spring and summer than Pauw.

Finally, Vlatko Andonovski. Seattle looked so good right from the start of the season—and maintained that quality over the whole year—that it became easy to take them for granted. But it’s truly remarkable how seamlessly he was able to step in, right the ship, and produce an absurdly good defensive unit despite an endless parade of injuries and absences.

Team of the Season

Megan Rapinoe – Sam Ker – Rachel Daly

Lindsey Horan – McCall Zerboni – Crystal Dunn

Jaelene Hinkle – Abby Erceg – Becky Sauerbrunn – Theresa Nielsen

Lydia Williams

The toughest call here was my third forward. I went with Rachel Daly, who was a massive difference maker for a Houston team that sometimes struggled to create chances and needed her to be great. But any of the forwards on my Second XI could easily have fit in here.

Second XI

Yuki Nagasoto – Lynn Williams – Tobin Heath

Christine Sinclair – Allie Long – Sophia Huerta

Steph Catley – Megan Oyster – Emily Menges – Arin Gilliland

Adrianna Franch

It was a weak year for fullbacks. Catley was a clear step below her performances in some previous years, while Gilliland blew very hot and cold. But both did enough for me to take them. I almost went with Caprice Dydasco, who had a very nice season in the midst of the mess that was the Spirit season. In the midfield, I thought long and hard about Dani Colaprico, who had another great Colaprico season, and the other NC midfielders, who all could easily have made the list. But ultimately I thought that Long’s contributions as the solid holding player in that Seattle midfield were more significant. I also originally had Amber Brooks as my final center back, but decided that Menges was so good in her limited time that it was enough to overcome a great year from Brooks by a hair.

Finally, I want to note a few players who were outstanding in limited minutes, but simply didn’t play enough to merit consideration on these lists. First is Mallory Pugh, who was the best player in the league for the first 5-6 weeks, but was clearly not at the same level when she returned.

Second, Vanessa DiBernardo, whose return was instrumental in turning Chicago from an underperforming group into a devastatingly effective team.

Third, Sam Mewis, who never seemed to get out of second gear, but still contributed a ton of value in limited time.

Finally, Julie Ertz, whose ability to be one of the best players in the league at multiple positions gave her team some critical flexibility when it came to make trades and re-arranging their options.

Route Two Soccer: Why the US Can’t Figure Out How to Break Down a Bunker

Posted on by RJ Allen

Why does the United States Women’s National Team struggle to break down compact, deep defensive teams?

In many ways, this has been the defining question of the two years since the US crashed out of the Olympics after failing to pick apart a very defensive Sweden. Hope Solo called them “a bunch of cowards” for playing that way. But Sweden weren’t cowards; they were just being practical.

Return to the question: why does the US struggle to break down a defensive block? Because everyone does. That’s why teams do it.

Soccer is a game of inches, of low margins and tiny probabilities. The default is for teams to not score, and it takes something special to upset that balance. Good teams still win because they possess the talent necessary to make the difference, but it’s hardly a certainty. We’ve all seen games where one team dominates but simply can’t break through, thanks to a goalkeeper standing on their head. Or games where the dominant team hits the crossbar three or four times. Just a few inches in one direction and they’d have cruised to victory.

This is frustrating, but if you’re the better team, the best you can do is expand the number of good shots you generate, and rely on your talented players to convert some of the chances.

Conversely, for weaker teams, it can make a lot of sense to play a defensive style. By reducing the chances available to both teams, you’ll hurt your own odds of scoring. But you’ll hurt the odds of the other team more. Playing defensively doesn’t change the basic structure of the match: the superior team is still superior and remains the favorite. But it can change the odds. By cutting down on the number of chances, you reduce their ability to exploit that superiority to the fullest extent.

Not every defensive approach is the same. At the extreme, teams can put all eleven players behind the ball, retreating deep into their defensive quadrant. In a more limited form, they can employ the classic ‘two banks of four.’ And there are plenty of ‘defensive’ setups that don’t necessarily rely on a lot of deep numbers but instead look to clog up the middle. The popular 4-2-3-1 setup can be quite defensive if both holding midfield players are more destructive than creative.

These all pose slightly different tactical problems. But when people talk about ‘bunkers,’ they usually mean teams who set up at least two lines of deep defense, conceding much of the midfield into order to shorten the space between their lines. The goal is to create two walls of bodies that close off the elusive ‘pockets of space’ that soccer commentators so love to talk about.

This generally makes for tactics that resemble nothing so much as the siege of a fortified Medieval castle. The superior team will unleash plenty of shots, but usually from distance, or from poor angles. They’ll have space to maneuver 30 yards from goal, but will have trouble getting any closer. They’ll have plenty of room on the wings to send in crosses, but will rarely get a clean head on the ball when it comes in.

When this sort of defensive play works, it’s usually down to a combination of three factors: good execution by the weaker team, poor execution by the stronger team, and luck.

The missing element here, often the most critical factor in other matches, is tactics. That’s because the whole point of deep defensive blocks is their capacity to severely limit the number of tactical issues in a game. There is no special sauce, no secret ingredient, no tactical innovation that will ‘solve’ this problem. A deep defensive block eliminates most of the spaces that players want to poke into. It jams up all the locks that smart tactics are trying to pick. The whole point is to reduce the number of unknowns in a game, to prevent superior teams from exploiting a wide range of game states.

This doesn’t mean defensive blocks are unbeatable. Far from it. Good teams can beat them, and more often than not they do. But not because of any particularly innovative techniques. The solution to beating this approach is to do the obvious things, execute them, and wait for the weight of probability to turn one of your half-chances into a goal.

So what are the obvious things?

First, play good crossers on the wings and good headers up front. This is where a ‘classic number 9’ can be useful—a big, bruising player who can out jump and outmuscle the opposing defenders. Think Abby Wambach. But while a strong #9 is important here, the bigger element is simply having wide players capable of posing a serious threat. Defensive blocks are strongest when they’re narrow. The more dangers you can create from wide spaces, the more stretched the defensive lines will have to be, and the more opportunities you’ll find in the middle.

Second, press aggressively when you lose possession. Defensive lines work because they’re tight and controlled. In a true bunker, the weaker team will treat this solidity as paramount, and won’t even try to counter for fear of losing their shape. But very few teams play that way. And the more that the opponent tries to attack, the harder it will be for them to recover. That can be exploited.

Third, shoot from distance. Deep defensive teams will generally offer plenty of space from 30-35 yards out. Coming out to pressure the ball is risky, because it creates holes that can be exploited. But if you have players willing and able to unleash dangerous shots from that range, it makes holding the defensive lines much more difficult.

Fourth, work the ball quickly through tight spaces. No block is impermeable. There will always still be space, just less than usual. A player with exceptional skill on the ball or with superb passing agility will often be able to exploit the tiniest of opportunity. This isn’t easy, and will often result in losing the ball, but that’s a cost that must be paid.

These are all simple ideas, and usually, they’ll get the job done. A defender will make a mistake, get caught out of position, miss a crucial tackle, or lunge in and concede a penalty. Or they’ll just get unlucky. A deflected shot will go in, or a cleared ball will fall right to the feet of an attacker. Moreover, even if they execute perfectly, there will still be half-chances. High-quality finishers aren’t guaranteed to convert those chances, but more often than not, one will eventually fall.

But probability isn’t certainty. Sometimes the chances just don’t fall. And when that happens, there can be a temptation to say that the coach needs to try something else. Unfortunately, the simple reality is that there aren’t really any other options. You just have to keep plugging away, putting the defensive team under pressure, and forcing them to execute.

None of this is to say that coaching has no role to play here. In a game of small margins, every opportunity to exploit an advantage needs to be taken. Good coaches will prepare for defensive teams by working on set pieces, by developing setups that will be capable of exploiting wide spaces, by emphasizing the importance of quick ball movement. They’ll be willing to adapt their approach. Perhaps they’ll bring on a big physical number 9 who normally wouldn’t start. Perhaps they’ll shift to a 442 which allows them to get four wide attackers involved without losing numbers in the middle. And so on.

Of course, it’s always worth looking for improvements in these margins. But marginal improvements are the best that can ever really be hoped for. At the end of the day, these games are usually determined by execution, not tactics.