Tag: Route Two Soccer

Route Two Soccer: There’s No Such Thing as an ‘International Level’ Player

Posted on by RJ Allen

Today I want to challenge one of the most durable, and least well-founded, myths in women’s soccer: the idea that there is an “international level,” where play is more difficult than the domestic leagues.

This belief is so widespread that, according to a piece this week from Jeff Kassouf which detailed the US Women’s National Team selection process, it’s apparently taken seriously by key principals within US Soccer itself.

[media-credit name=”Jonathan Tannenwald” align=”aligncenter” width=”628″][/media-credit]

But if one applies even some casual scrutiny, the whole idea falls apart like cotton candy in a pool.

The argument here is pretty straightforward. The world contains four top-level international leagues—the NWSL in the US, the Frauen Bundesliga in Germany, the D1F in France, the WSL in England—along with five or six other weaker but still relatively high quality leagues (in Sweden, Spain, Denmark, etc.). But the reality is that the vast majority of the world’s top players are concentrated in those four big leagues.

For a league without much competitive balance, that produces a top tier which is absolutely stacked. In France, for example, Lyon effectively has a version of the French national team, supplemented with a few more of the best players from other countries. In leagues that are more balanced—like the NWSL—there is no single team that can compare with the top international sides, but the distribution of talent means that there are no gimmes. The worst team in the league would probably be a top 20 international side.

Don’t believe me? Take a look at the roster.

Sky Blue has been anchored to the bottom of the NWSL table all season. This is a team with Carli Lloyd, Janine Beckie, Savannah McCaskill, Kailen Sheridan, and Thaisa Moreno—all of whom have received recent call-ups for teams in the world top 10. Then you have Raquel Rodriguez, one of the best players on the world’s #32 team. And Rebekah Stott, a regular for the world’s #20 team. Then there are players like Shea Groom, Christina Gibbons, Erica Skroski, and Sarah Killion—who would be regular internationals if they were playing for virtually any country in the world besides the United States.

Put Sky Blue into the next Women’s World Cup, and I think they’d be even money to make it out of the group stage. And this is the roster of the team with one point through eight games in the NWSL.

Then look at some of the teams higher up the table. North Carolina’s first XI is packed with key players for the #1 team in the world, and supplemented with a few key contributors from other top international sides. Put North Carolina into the next World Cup and they’d be among the favorites to win the whole thing.

No one would deny that there are differences between club and international competitions. Some players flourish in a stable club environment, but find it difficult to turn in the same performance when playing for their country. Conversely, some players are at their best in international duty, while only being average for club. There’s a variety of potential factors in play here: the individual psychology of the player, their adaptability and flexibility, the support system around them in different environments. And some of it may simply be random. Normal distribution of chance means some players will always be outliers, but this doesn’t necessarily carry any predictive meaning.

All of which is to say: even if there are some players whose performance levels vary between club and country, there’s certainly no reason to think the imbalance goes only in one direction.

In some cases, the talent pool for a given country will be clogged enough to close out a top-quality player. One could make this argument for the forward position in the US national team, where players like Christen Press and Lynn Williams—arguably among the top dozen strikers in the world—have struggled to find minutes. But that’s very different from saying that a player outperforming their competition at the club level lacks some undefined ‘international quality’ and therefore can’t be expected to transfer her performance between levels.

Long story short: a top player in the NWSL is a top player in world soccer, and there’s absolutely no reason to think that they wouldn’t be able to hang at the international level. A player who can dominate in a league that contains North Carolina, Portland, Orlando, Seattle, Chicago, etc. is one of the world’s best players, full stop.

One can only hope that the decision-makers in US Soccer understand this, and aren’t really taking their ‘5 point’ system seriously.

Route Two Soccer: What’s Wrong With Chicago?

Posted on by RJ Allen

Going into the 2017 NWSL season, the Chicago Red Stars were widely regarded as a leading contender for the title. Through the first ten games, they seemed to be living up to the promise, earning 18 points and playing an aggressive, exciting brand of soccer.

The back half of 2017, however, saw a serious downswing. The strong start gave them a cushion which was enough to hold off challengers for the final playoff spot, but they did very little with their semifinal berth, going down in a rough-and-tumble game against the North Carolina Courage.

There have been some signs of life this year, but the results have remained difficult to come by. Combining their ten games this year with their final fourteen of 2017–a full season’s worth of matches–they’ve picked up a meager 31 points.

NWSL results – based on most recent 24 games for each team

Now, 31 points isn’t nothing. It’s much better, for example, than the 17 points the beleaguered Washington Spirit have managed in that same period. But 31 points is well below a normal playoff pace and is well below what a reasonable observer would anticipate given the quality of players on this roster.

Any team will suffer ebbs and flows in performance, so one shouldn’t overreact to a few bad results. But a full season’s worth of results is more than just a blip or a bad run. It’s clear, at this point, that Chicago is stagnating. That certainly doesn’t mean they can’t right the ship. But it does invite some serious questions about why this is happening and what can be done to fix it.

Chicago has struggled with a serious injury crisis

When searching for theories, it’s hard not to start with injuries. After a consistently great bill of health for most of last year, Chicago’s roster began to run down toward the end of the year, and those problems have more than carried over into 2018. They’ve had to do without some critical players, starting with Julie Ertz, who has only recently returned and still doesn’t seem to be close to 100%. They’ve also desperately missed Vanessa DiBernardo, whose incisive passing is critical to unlocking the Chicago attack. Casey Short was one of the league’s best defenders in 2017, but has missed all of this season. Then consider that Chicago was missing some key players on international duty for most of April. Not least of which: Sam Kerr.

Given these conditions, Chicago has relied heavily on supporting players so far. These include Taylor Comeau and Sarah Gorden in defense, Nikki Stanton in the central midfield, and Alyssa Mautz, Summer Green, and Michele Vasconcelos in the attack. On the whole, these players have done reasonably well, but there is a reason that they are generally not first-choice when the full roster is available.

Of course, every team suffers injuries, so it’s not like the Red Stars are the only ones being forced to turn to second and third choice options. But Chicago’s list is arguably the worst of any team in the league. That has to be part of the equation.

Chicago has played a packed schedule

It’s also worth noting that Chicago has been forced to fit a lot of games into a compact schedule. In a nine-team league, every squad is going to have busier and lighter sections of the schedule, but Chicago hit theirs at a particularly rough moment. It’s certainly notable that the team is winless in their last six games, even as they’ve gotten back their internationals and some of their injured players. It’s unlikely that this is all due to tired legs, but it’s probably a factor. 

Unfortunately for Chicago, these effects aren’t quickly resolved, either. Players who are run into the ground early will need extended recovery breaks to get things back in order—breaks that the schedule simply doesn’t contain.

Chicago is still struggling with their tactical evolution

Last October, I wrote an autopsy on the Red Stars season, in which I argued for some necessary evolution of their playing style. Their rigid adherence to a midfield diamond was blocking many of the teams’ strengths in possession and passing, and doing little to take advantage of their greatest asset: Christen Press. This year, finally, Chicago seems to be making real changes. They have generally set up in a 4-3-3, relying heavily on their fullbacks to both push high and to drift inward—bolstering the wide attack as well as the central midfield. The goal has been to build a smoother attacking style, one organized more around controlled possession and less fixated on direct assaults.

Ironically, they made this change even as they swapped out Press for Kerr. I say ‘ironic’ because Kerr would have been far more suited to the direct style they played last year, while Press fits more naturally into a possession game.

That being said, Kerr is a world-class striker in any system. While things haven’t quite clicked yet, it’s only a matter of time before she reels off a string of goals. And the possession game is a better utilization of Chicago’s overall roster, particularly once they get DiBernarndo back. Her ability to thread the perfect through-ball has been sorely missed so far this year. In the long term, they’ll be a better team if they focus on cultivating more diversity in their range of play. Assuming that they still see themselves as playoff contenders (as they should), their goal should be to get ready to play their best in September.

If this style continues to falter, they may eventually be forced to revert to type. But for now, at least, it’s an experiment still worth pursuing.

We’re approaching make-or-break time for Rory Dames

Broadly speaking, women’s leagues see much less turnover in coaching positions than their male equivalents. Still, try to imagine a coach in the English Premier League or Serie A being allowed to spend this long with this talented a roster and this poor a run of results. It’s pretty difficult. Even in the comparatively lower temperature environment of the NWSL, Dames’ seat has to be getting just a little bit hot.

This by no means is meant to impugn Dames’ obvious qualities as a coach. His tenure at Chicago has been extremely impressive. He built this team up from the ground, assembling a squad of superb players who have grown and developed together. It’s been an incredible achievement, and one well-worth celebrating. Given all that success, it would hardly be unreasonable to give him more time to put things back on track.

At the same time, one can’t help but wonder if there may be diminishing returns to Dames’ contributions in this position. It’s the rare case for a coach to serve more than a few years in a position. Ideas start to go stale, personalities start to clash, motivations falter. This implies no personal failing of the coach; it’s just a natural part of the process. There are, of course, a few notable exceptions—coaches who survive for decades by reinventing themselves and their teams—but for every Sir Alex Ferguson, there are a dozen big names who hop quickly from team to team. 

This year, the NWSL has already seen two big moves, with Vlatko Andonovski and Laura Harvey swapping jobs. Each had seemed inseparable from the team they had built, but not only have Utah and Seattle survived the transition just fine, both teams actually seem revitalized.

A team like Chicago—stacked with talent and anxious to break their semifinal curse—may eventually be forced to consider whether it’s time to part ways. That decision certainly shouldn’t be taken lightly. Still, considering the malaise hanging over the Red Stars over the past twelve months, it’s worth at least entertaining the idea.

The darkest hour is just before dawn?

The Red Stars are an enigma, probably the hardest team in the league to assess. The underlying quality is obviously there, and it’s very easy to put a positive shine on things. Injuries, missing internationals, an evolving style of play—all these point toward a team primed for improvement. What’s more, while Chicago has struggled to find points this year, that has been primarily been driven by a surprising number of draws. A few more lucky breaks here and there could easily have turned a couple draws into wins, which would give them a lot more breathing room. And even without those extra points, they’re hardly in serious danger.  12 points from 10 games isn’t great, but it would only take a couple wins on the bounce to rocket them back up the table. That’s eminently possible, and should give Chicago supporters plenty of reason for hope. 

At their best, Chicago are one of the league’s most exciting teams to watch. For the sake of neutrals everywhere, here’s hoping that the optimists are right and that Chicago turns a corner sooner rather than later.

Route Two Soccer – Sky Blue Lose to Houston: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Posted on by RJ Allen

Sky Blue knew this would be a difficult year, but they didn’t know it would start out this rough. After four games, they’ve managed only one solitary point. And while there’s still plenty of time to reverse course, it’s worth taking a moment to assess precisely how things have gone wrong.

This weekend’s game against Houston provides a nice focal point for that conversation, because it illustrates both the potential in this team as well as the glaring weaknesses. Let’s start with the good parts, before turning to the problems.

The Good: a young but very talented attack

First, there is a ton of talent in the Sky Blue attack. Katie Johnson made headlines by scoring two goals against Houston, and there’s every reason to think she could develop into a top-level forward. There’s still some rough pieces of her game, but she’s got a classic striker’s instinct for finding the half-step of space and the knack for finishing once the opportunities open up. She’ll likely never be the sort of player who can carry an offense alone, but with a good supporting cast, she should thrive.

Fortunately, Sky Blue have a good supporting cast. Shea Groom is perpetually underrated, and often misdiagnosed as a pure striker, when in fact her primary talents are moving at speed with the ball at her feet, and incisive passing to cut open defenses. In a different era, she’d make a hell of a winger, but with the modern move away from classic 4-4-2s, she’s still a great wide attacker. Then there’s Janine Beckie, whose performances for Canada make her talent abundantly clear. She’s blessed with brilliant field vision and can pick out a through-ball with the very best. She never really found her rhythm with Houston, but a change of scenery might be what it takes to unlock that ability. Results from the first month haven’t been great, but she’s a player worth betting on. Sky Blue also picked up Savannah McCaskill from the Boston dispersal draft, giving them a player good enough to earn several national team caps before her first professional game. Her introduction to the league hasn’t been wholly successful—she’s spent a lot of time chasing the game, and hasn’t always handled the speed at which possession gets closed down—but McCaskill is the real deal.

That makes four top-notch attacking players, all with plenty of room to improve (at 25, Groom is the oldest of the group). This core will struggle here and there but should be a strong point for the team in the long run.

What’s more, there’s also an excellent group of supporting players behind this group—featuring Adriana Leon, McKenzie Meehan, Jen Hoy, and Madison Tiernan. That’s a wealth of attacking talent. Almost too much, since you can only play so many of them at a time. A point which will guide our considerations in the next sections…

The Bad: the backline

Sky Blue’s defense was a worry going into the season, and nothing we’ve seen so far suggests that the problems have been resolved. Going into the Houston match, they’d conceded three goals in three games—not a terrible record by any means—but never looked particularly sharp. Against Houston, though, the frailty was truly exposed. Remember, before this game, Houston had managed one solitary goal in 450 minutes. Against Sky Blue, they scored three and easily could have had more.

None of the back five were blameless. Kailen Sheridan had a dreadful game in goal (a theme for the week), while the centerbacks struggled to deal with the pace and physicality of Rachel Daly. The fullbacks, meanwhile, barely played like fullbacks at all. Mandy Freeman virtually never entered the Houston half, and while Christina Gibbons did get forward a bit more, it was severely constrained. She also had a lot of trouble containing Kealia Ohai’s quick attacks.

Still, while none of these five had a good game, it’s also true that they were given very little to work with. Defense is a team game, after all, and the backline didn’t get much help, creating the conditions for the breakdowns that then ensued. If we want to assign blame, then, we also need to look further upfield.

The Ugly: a weak and confused midfield

When she’s on her game, Carli Lloyd is still one of the world’s best players. The big question is just how often she can be on, and whether a team can afford to rely on her for all the other games. Four games into her homecoming, results are somewhat inconclusive, but not especially promising. Certainly, the midfield hasn’t looked good, though it’s not clear precisely where the blame lies.

Sarah Killion spent several years as one of the league’s most underrated players, but she looked a bit lost last year and has failed to rediscover her form this season. At her best, she was great at recycling play and starting attacks from a deep position. But we’ve seen very little of that this year. In a similar vein, Raquel Rodriguez has failed to do much to develop on her promising rookie campaign in 2016. She often drifts out of games for extended periods, and when she does find her way back in, she often pushes too hard and turns the ball over quickly. Defensively, she is almost a complete non-entity, doing very little of the necessary work to occupy space and inhibit opposition transitions.

The point of detailing these flaws in Killion and Rodriguez is not to call them out, but only to note that Lloyd herself suffers from many of these same limitations. When the three are combined, it seems to be a recipe for an aimless midfield which poses vanishingly little threat to the opposition attack, and which struggles to do much with the ball in attack. In particular, this trio is desperately lacking a deep-lying fulcrum who can dictate play on both sides of the ball.

To illustrate the point, observe the first half against Houston, where Sky Blue deployed these three players in a midfield trio, to vanishingly little effect. In practice, this played more like a 4-1-4-1, with Killion as the lone holding player—and the only one contributing anything defensively. Rodriguez and Lloyd, meanwhile, could have been tissue paper for all the difficulty they posed for Houston’s attack. Rodriguez, in particular, spent most of her time on the pitch trailing behind runners who she had let slip past.

As a result, while Houston never had much in the way of sustained possession, they didn’t need it. As soon as they gained the ball, they moved forward at lightning pace, blasting right through the midfield, forcing Sky Blue’s backline to defend on the run. With Rodriguez and Lloyd both providing porous points of entry through the center of the pitch, Houston took firm advantage of the easy access to acres of space.

After the half, Groom came on for Rodriguez, which brought some improvement. This allowed McCaskill to shift into the midfield trio, bringing a better work rate and muscle, while Groom slotted in on the left and brought her trademark aggression and dynamic movement. It was certainly an improvement, without necessarily resolving the underlying issues.

What is to be done?

There are no simple solutions here. The fundamental problem for Sky Blue is an unbalanced roster, with too few defensive players and very little in the way of cover. Moreover, any team built around Carli Lloyd is going to run into problems in the midfield. For all her talents (and they are many), the slow grinding work of defensive structure is a persistent weakness. If Lloyd is one of only three midfielders, you are going to have to compensate heavily with the other slots. Think about North Carolina here, who can afford to use a player like Debinha in the attacking midfield role because they have McCall Zerboni, Denise O’Sullivan, and Sam Mewis available to cover for her. Without players like those to paper over the cracks, or without a change of system, Sky Blue is going to be perpetually overrun in the midfield.

So what should they do? One simple move would be to tweak the formation. As noted above, their 4-3-3 really played more like a 4-1-4-1, with Killion as the lone body in the huge expanse of space between their two banks of four. This went pretty disastrously. They could instead drop a second midfielder back and play a 4-2-3-1, giving Killion some support. The problem with this solution is: who do you put in that second holding role? Rodriguez simply can’t do the job, so do you bring back McCaskill and lose her contributions in the front line? If not her, then who else is even available?

There is one clear answer here: Christina Gibbons. We saw last year that Gibbons is excellent in a holding midfield role. Her incisive passing does a lot more damage there, and her ability to defensively track play is also well-suited to the job of shielding a backline. Moreover, that job also limits the damage of her relative weakness as a single isolated defender. As we saw this weekend against Ohai, Gibbons isn’t particularly good at single-handedly containing an energetic forward. She’s far better suited to playing a complementary role as one half of a double pivot, where her great soccer IQ can truly shine.

Of course, there are risks to moving Gibbons off the backline. As already noted, Sky Blue’s defensive depth is quite limited, and there are no obvious candidates to slot in at fullback if Gibbons vacates the role. Kayla Mills might still be a long-term solution, but fitness issues have kept her from playing a meaningful role during most of her tenure with the club. Erica Skroski is probably a better fullback than center back, and could certainly slot over. But then who fill that job in the middle?

I can see two possible solutions, which share a lot of common DNA. The first is to shift to a 3-5-2 setup. Freeman, Stott, and Skroski are all well-suited to the job, and with two holding mids, the math of attackers vs. defenders stays effectively the same. The primary difference is where pressure gets exercised. At the moment, Sky Blue is investing a lot in protecting their flanks but exposing far too much space right down the middle. A back three would significantly strengthen the spine, and close down those quick counter attacks that ripped them apart this weekend. But it does so at the cost of opening up wide channels.

The second solution is a bit more radical, but one that I think deserves serious attention. And that is: convert Shea Groom to a right back. I’ve floated this idea speculatively before, in reference to the US national team, but it makes a ton of sense for Sky Blue right now. As I noted at the start, Groom is versatile enough to play as a traditional striker, but is better deployed as a winger or inside forward, where her ability to move in space is given a chance to flourish. As fullback, those opportunities would abound. She has the pace and energy to cover the job. And while no transition is ever seamless, her tenacity on the defensive end suggests that she might take reasonably well to the change.

Sky Blue got a huge amount of mileage last year out of Kelley O’Hara playing a hybrid fullback/winger role. It might be time to see whether Groom can play a similar role this year. Given the lack of balance in this team, some great attackers are inevitably going to be left on the bench. It might be risky, but there’s a strong argument for shifting the team to get another good player on the pitch, and shore up a weakness in the process.

Route Two Soccer: Bridging the Gap

Posted on by RJ Allen

Organizing a defense is hard, and the job gets even more difficult when you remember that preventing the other team from scoring is only half of the game. Today, I want to focus on the Washington Spirit, who got ripped apart by the North Carolina Courage last weekend. The problem for Washington is: there was no single actor at fault, no single point of contact to be addressed. Instead, their problems reflect a larger tactical dilemma.

Ultimately, the story is pretty simple. Having brought in a wealth of attacking talent, the team is overloaded up top without equivalent quality in the back. You can see from the back four against NC: Taylor Smith, Whitney Church, Estelle Johnson, and Caprice Dydasco. All quality players, but all players with severe limitations. In combination, this is a backline that can do a job but is never going to dominate the game. In particular, it’s a centerback pairing that is sorely lacking in pace.

Under those conditions, many teams will sit back, using their midfield as a secondary shield. The classic principle here is to establish ‘two banks of four’ spread across the field, with relatively little space in between the lines. The problem for Washington is: they don’t want to play a compact defensive game. Do so and you lose out on the value of those great attackers.

Unfortunately for them, there isn’t really a way to square this circle. Play your midfield further up, and you generate acres of space between the lines. That’s prime ground for the other team to attack. Observe:

Here, Sullivan is tracking a runner into that gap, but O’Sullivan, Dunn, and Mathias are all moving freely in open space. All it takes is one ball into that territory and the Spirit backline is put into an impossible decision. If a centerback steps forward to mark the ball carrier, she generates a gap behind her. If she drops back and tries to soak up the pressure, suddenly the whole team is trying to move backward at pace while holding their lines tight. That’s a tough job for anyone.

A few minutes later, we see another example of the problem. In this case, Washington is pushing high and its midfield has scattered. That’s fine if you have the ball, but once they lose possession, there’s no hope of resetting the defensive line. Therefore, in an effort to compress that open territory, the backline has also come high. The problem is: they are Not Fast—especially not the centerbacks. Meanwhile, the Carolina attackers have pace to burn. You can very much guess what happens next.

North Carolina breaks. A simple ball behind the defense, and everyone is off to the races. With most of the Spirit midfield effectively out of the equation, it’s now four Courage attackers against four defenders, with Sullivan hoping to catch up in time. NC is into the box within a few seconds, and attacking a defense that has not had time to set.

A nice touch from Williams takes Smith out of the equation. A slicing run from McDonald drags the centerbacks forward. Williams shoots, and the ball ricochets off Church (possibly a handball) right into the six-yard box. Sullivan has done her best to catch up to the play but is in no position to make a real clearance. Result: the ball falls to Dunn who buries her finish.

And this isn’t a one-time thing. Washington consistently faced this problem: big gaps that allowed Carolina to turn quickly and race into space—creating regular 4-on-4 breaks that were never going to end well.

Again, there’s no perfect solution to this problem. Washington doesn’t have the pace in back to sustain a high line, particularly not against a team like North Carolina. But if they sit back, they’ll concede possession and control, likely their best chance of turning the tables.

Ultimately, Washington is simply going to have to decide how they want to approach this topic. If they are committed to playing an expansive attacking game, they simply don’t have the personnel to fully cover their bases. That might be a sacrifice worth making, in which case the focus should be on developing techniques for limiting the damage.  One simple but necessary element: drilling the midfield to hold their lines more cleanly. That won’t resolve the problem, but could mitigate the effects.

At a deeper level, they should also seriously look into their team selection. Given the limitations of the backline, they would be best off using two true holding midfielders, whose job is to patrol that gap. In this game, they ostensibly played as a 4-3-3, which in reality was usually a 4-1-4-1. Committing more fully to the principle of a midfield shield and using a 4-2-3-1 would help a lot. That probably means using Tori Huster – who is a wizard at occupying space – but Rebecca Quinn could be another long-term solution, while Morgan Proffitt or Meggie Dougherty Howard might also fit the bill. Clearly, though, Joanna Lohman is not the answer. She is a national treasure, but was not well suited to this setup, and it showed on the night. Further back, Jim Gabarra has made very clear over the last several years that he trusts Church a great deal, and there are good reasons for that. Church is a smart player who extracts every possible measure of value out of her ability. Unfortunately, at the end of the day, her lack of pace is going to keep getting exposed unless they can find her a partner with the speed to cover those runs.

The Spirit have plenty of talent, but their naiveté showed against North Carolina. There’s no shame in losing to the Courage, of course, but they would do well to consider what went wrong, and to think seriously about how to organize this collection of excellent individual players into a sturdier defensive unit.

Route Two Soccer: A Strong Start for the Reign

Posted on by RJ Allen

This offseason, the Reign said goodbye to their longtime coach Laura Harvey, and quite a few players as well. For many fans, this movement was disconcerting. Even for those who liked the changes in principle, there was plenty of concern about how long it would take them to get everything organized.

One week in, it’s still far too early to draw any serious conclusions. But the news so far is good. In this column, I want to take a quick look at the Reign’s first match, and see what it tells us about the new Vlatko Andonovski regime.

The team set up in a 4-3-3, which was hardly surprising. It was very similar to how they played under Harvey, and quite similar to the way Vlatko’s FCKC teams often played as well. The personnel available definitely creates some flexibility here, with both Allie Long and Jess Fishlock able to play a holding role, allowing them to shift easily back and forth between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 depending on game state. Against Washington, they spent the majority of the game on the front foot, allowing Long to generally play as a single holding midfielder, while giving her and Fishlock freedom to interchange as necessary.

Getting the most out of Allie Long

This is a role Long has played before, but rarely excelled in. She’s a solid defender in one-on-one situations, and her good workrate allows her to be a disruptive force, but her lack of positional discipline has always prevented her from truly excelling at the job of shielding the backline. Further, her tendency to dither on the ball is risky for a player tasked with winning the ball and distributing it quickly from dangerous positions. Finally, playing her deep tends to limit her opportunities to crash into the box—one of the most important qualities of her game.

In this game, however, Long looked transformed. All those good qualities were present, and she looked far more confident managing play. Gone were the tentative stabs that opened up space behind her. Gone was the player who often fell under some tough challenges, conceding possession in dangerous zones. She seemed far more locked into the holding role, and played it far better than she generally has managed.

She still isn’t the most dynamic passer—generally opting for static sideways balls if at all possible—but that’s really the only complaint to be found about her play. She was even able to pick and choose a fair number of opportunities to get forward and contribute in the box.

It’s never a good idea to draw firm conclusions from one game, particularly against a team as young and raw as this Washington side. But at least on the first impression, Coach Andonovski surely will have been pleased to see the Long and Fishlock partnership work out so well.

The magical Rapinoe

The Megan Rapinoe renaissance continues apace. She put on a show in this game, absolutely bamboozling Taylor Smith on multiple occasions, ranging far and wide to get the ball, shooting at will, and playing plenty of beautiful passes as well. It was a majestic game, from a player who may have lost half a step of pace, but who has more than made up for it with guile and precision.

That said, it’s once again worth mentioning the opposition. Taylor Smith had a great year in 2017, but hasn’t looked nearly as solid so far in 2018. Her first half here was particularly rough, as she persistently overcommitted only to find herself turned and chasing Rapinoe. She also struggled enormously trying to establish a working partnership on with Whitney Church—whose lack of pace exposed huge gaps in the right side of the defense.

Jodie Taylor also deserves credit. While she didn’t provide any singular moments to rival those of Rapinoe, her presence was felt all through the night. Seattle desperately needed a true #9 last year to establish a point of attack, soak up pressure, and give Rapinoe and Naho someone to play off. With Taylor, they’ve now got one, and it brought the attack into clear focus.

A backline full of options

All of the key performances for Seattle took place in the front six, but there’s plenty worth discussing in the back half of the pitch as well. We should begin by noting the incredible depth of the Seattle defense. The five starters last night are all excellent, but you could conduct a complete line change and replace them with five more top-level players. After all, they were missing two starters away on international duty (Lydia Williams in goal and Steph Catley at left back) and another (Yael Averbuch) to illness. Then consider names like Christen Westphal, Maddie Bauer, and Kristen McNabb and you’ve got two full defensive units that could easily be starting.

Of the group that started this game, the clearest positive story was Theresa Nielsen, whose first game in the league went very well. Many have suggested that the combination of Nielsen and Catley gives Seattle the best fullback duo in the league, and on the evidence of the night, there seems to be a lot to that. She is a dynamic player who will do a lot to settle the position for them. On the other side, Utsugi did fine, not blowing down any doors but getting the job done. It seems like she will be a nice luxury for Andonovski this year: a seasoned player who probably doesn’t start when everyone is healthy, but who can cover virtually any midfield or defensive position in a pinch.

At center back, Lauren Barnes looked a bit shaky. She has been a mainstay at Seattle for years, but appears to be in one of those phases that often hit players as they emerge out of their peak years: still good, but struggling to adapt to a slight loss of physical performance. It will be worth watching to see whether Averbuch slots immediately in as a starter once she’s healthy. On a team with fewer options, both would certainly be expected to play every day, but on a team with depth, some rotation might serve both players best, giving them time for rest and recovery to allow full exertion when they’re called on.

Finally, Michelle Betos put on quite a show in her first game back in the NWSL since she departed after the 2016 season. It was a vintage Betos performance, with some impressive sweeping, a few nice saves, and a few moments to set the heart racing. Williams should still be expected to start once she returns, but at a bare minimum Betos showed that Seattle have solid depth in the position.

Verdict still out, but a promising start

Ultimately, one game is only one game. Things could still very easily go wrong. But one theme coming into the year was concern that it might take Vlatko time to get everyone working together, to imprint his vision, and to establish the sort of style he wants to see. With five new players (many of them down the spine of the team), more new players to come, and a new coach, it would be understandable if things hadn’t really gelled. Instead, they hit the ground running.

Last year, Seattle finished fifth, five points off of a playoff spot. The four teams who finished ahead of them can’t have liked what they saw on Saturday night.

Route Two Soccer: 2018 NWSL Season Predictions

Posted on by RJ Allen

Predictions are a mug’s game, but I’m a mug, so here we are. For these predictions, I’ve assigned an order, and my rough estimation of the chance of each team making the playoffs. What should quickly become clear is that I think this league has four tiers, with clear separation between the tiers but very little separation within them. Ultimately, I see five very good teams in the league and several other solid contenders. Given the cold hard math of the situation, that means that at least one team who projects to be very good is going to miss the playoffs. That’s an unfortunate reality for the team (or teams) who miss out, but it suggests we should be in for an exciting season.

As I go through each team, I’ll first explain why I picked them in that spot and then lay out the best case for why I might be wrong.

Tier One: No Weaknesses

1. North Carolina Courage (80% chance of making the playoffs)

Why they’ll finish first: The defining strength of this team is their depth. Unlike the other title challengers, they aren’t truly dependent on any particular player. While they certainly wouldn’t like to see Sam Mewis, Lynn Williams, or Abby Erceg knocked out by a serious injury, there’s no doubt that they could compensate for the loss of even several key components. I’m not sure any other team in the league can say that, which is why NC is in a tier of their own. The two big questions are how they’ll integrate Crystal Dunn and what they’ll do about the fullback positions. One possible answer to both questions would be a version of a back three—which would keep the defense solid while allowing their wide runners to function more as wingbacks than true fullbacks. But whatever solution they come up with, they should be fine.

Why I might be wrong: Several years ago, the Seattle Reign were a dominant force… right up until they weren’t. Teams often fade more quickly than you’d expect, and North Carolina could be the next victim. It might be unreasonable to expect another career year from Zerboni, or a fully healthy season from Mewis. And if the midfield falters, some of the weaknesses in the back line could get exposed. Their style of play also takes a lot of energy, and might leave them pretty run down by the end of the season. I’d still bet on NC making the playoffs, but it’s not at all impossible to see them struggling across the line, rather than racing ahead to seize the Shield.

Tier Two: Great Teams with Minor Danger Areas

2. Portland Thorns (60%)

Why they’ll finish second: Portland lost a few key players, but has done a lot to make up for it. Andressinha is already good, and surrounded by quality teammates might be on the verge turning into a superstar. Midge Purce could be a huge addition, adding pace and a wide attacking edge. Carpenter, the 17-year-old Australian, is an exciting young talent. And so on. Ultimately, the strength of this team is similar to North Carolina: they can probably survive a few bumps in the road without seriously derailing their season.

Why I might be wrong: There’s enough talent on this team to blow the doors off the opposition. So it wouldn’t shock me to see them take the pole position all season. On the other hand, there are a lot more uncertainties here than they’d probably like. Their setup leans quite heavily on getting strong seasons from players up and down the spine. A long absence from Lindsey Horan could leave them pretty weak in the center of the pitch. Any serious problems with either of the starting center backs could expose the backline. And while there’s a lot of potential in the attack, they don’t really have a surefire goal-scorer. If the offense sputters a bit, and the defense is less solid, Portland suddenly starts to look a bit more ordinary. It would be surprising to see them miss the playoffs, but it wouldn’t be shocking.

3. Seattle Reign (60%)

Why they’ll finish third: Washington is clearly the most improved team this year, but in any normal offseason, the Seattle makeover would be the one that had everyone raving. They acquired two top-level veteran defenders (Megan Oyster and Yael Averbuch), one of the world’s best fullbacks (Steph Catley), a world-class striker (Jodie Taylor), a useful USWNT fringe player (Allie Long), some fantastic depth options (Morgan Andrews, Elizabeth Addo, Christen Westphal), and held onto players like Jess Fishlock, Megan Rapinoe, and Nahomi Kawasumi. Put it together and you have a roster that rivals anyone in the league. Oh, and while they lost Laura Harvey, they replaced her with Vlatko Andonovski, probably the only other comparable coaching talent in the league. It’s still an open question how they manage to put it all together, and it’s not unreasonable to expect some problems as they get started. But this is a very good team.

Why I might be wrong: My prediction puts a lot of faith in Andonovski’s ability to get everything working together. There was a lot of turnover in the roster, and it might not all fit together easily. Further, for all their depth in most positions, the midfield could be a little shaky. If Fishlock were to miss significant time, I’m not sure they have a viable replacement. If the team gels, they could win the league. If not, they find themselves trapped in a bunch of drab 1-1 draws, and end up seeing the playoffs slip just past their grip.

4. Chicago Red Stars (55%)

Why they’ll finish fourth: Losing Christen Press is a huge problem, unless you can manage to replace her with Sam Kerr. That’s particularly true since Kerr seems to fit Rory Dames’s style better than Press ever did. Given that, and given the continuity everywhere else in the roster, it feels like Chicago are in good position to do at least as well as they did last year. However, there are a couple mitigating factors. First, despite all the talent on the roster, Chicago just weren’t actually all that good last year. They made the playoffs, but with a goal difference of just +3. Do that again this year and they could very easily miss out. Second, many of their competitors have improved a lot, making this a bit of a Red Queen race—where you have to run faster just to stay even. Third, Chicago’s luck with injuries for most of last season seems to have truly worn off. They dragged a lot at the end of 2017 and come into 2018 with a host of new ailments. Put it all together and you’ve got a great team which should be fine, but which would be devastated by the loss of Kerr or Julie Ertz.

Why I might be wrong: Sam Kerr is probably the best striker on the planet right now. Put her into a team with a rock-solid defensive unit, and that’s a recipe for a bunch of 1-0 victories. And if Dames can get his offense moving again, they could be truly explosive. On the other side, while it’s pretty hard to see Chicago really struggling this year, there are a lot of good teams in the league. Merely being good might not be enough to make the playoffs this year.

5. Orlando Pride (50%)

Why they’ll finish fifth: Orlando are probably the highest-variance team in the league. It’s very easy to see them blowing teams away and finishing first. It’s also not too difficult to imagine an injury to Marta or Morgan causing the wheels to come off. Remember how much this team struggled at the start of 2017? That could easily happen again. They had a fine offseason, but probably didn’t do as much to improve as some of the other teams around them. In particular, they still have a shockingly weak midfield. They got away with it last year because Marta is Marta. But time marches on relentlessly, and even Marta will eventually start to fade. If that happens this year, it’s hard to see Orlando having enough bite in the midfield to make the playoffs.

Why I might be wrong: I’ve got them fifth, but only 10% worse odds to make the playoffs than the team in second, so it’s important not to overstate their weakness. It wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see Orlando win the league. If Marta and Morgan don’t lose a step, if Krieger continues to be a great defender, if the supplemental players continue to improve, this is a team that no one will want to play.

Tier Three: Lots of Holes, Lots of Potential

6. Washington Spirit (35%)

Why they’ll finish sixth: The Spirit are by far the most-improved team this offseason, having added most of the young USWNT core and a long-time starter for the Canadian team as well. Moreover, they should also improve simply by virtue of escaping from the injury hellhole that defined their 2017. That said, while this team projects to become terrifyingly good sometime very soon, they’re probably not quite there yet. Their attackers are as good as anyone in the league, but it’s still unclear how they’ll actually play together. With a roster this young, it wouldn’t be unexpected to see some growing pains.

But the real danger area is the defense. It’s possible that Rebecca Quinn will be a top-class center back, that Estelle Johnson will play out of her skin, that Meggie Dougherty-Howard will thrive at right back, that Caprice Dydasco will reach her full potential, and that Whitney Church will be primarily a depth option at center back. It’s also possible that Quinn struggles with the physicality of the league, Johnson struggles with her footwork, Dougherty-Howard can’t supply the pace and precision from outside, Dydasco never quite fulfills her promise, and Church is a regular starter. There’s a ton of variance in this team, but unless they can plug some of these gaps, they’ve probably got too many flaws to make the playoffs.

Why I might be wrong: The defense could be even worse than expected. Rose Lavelle might miss tons of time. Their rookie core might take a while to find their feet. There’s basically no chance they’ll be as bad as last year, but it might be asking too much for them to make major improvements now. On the other side, maybe the youth revolution starts firing on all cylinders. Maybe Lavelle is as dazzling as we all hope, Andi Sullivan is a rock in the midfield, and the ridiculous wealth of attackers are enough to overwhelm any defensive frailty. If this team plays to its full potential, they could win the Shield. I’m not saying that is likely to happen; I’m just saying it’s possible.

7. Utah Royals (30%)

Why they’ll finish seventh: Because there are six teams that look better than them. Honestly, that’s really it. There’s nothing wrong with this team, and any squad coached by Laura Harvey is hard to bet against. They just don’t look to have quite as much talent as the six teams I’ve got above them. A lot of that depends on whether they get peak, healthy performances from Becky Sauerbrunn and Amy Rodriguez. Those two performing at their 2015 levels would do a lot to push this team into the playoffs. Even then, there are still some places where this roster looks a little more functional more than it looks dominant.

Why I might be wrong: If Kelley O’Hara is a game-changer and ignites the Utah attack. If Harvey makes a vintage Harvey international signing in June to solidify the team. If Sauerbrunn is a rock in defense. If Rodriguez is a maestro in the attack. If players like Laddish, Kelly, Scott, and Matheson are given a chance to shine. If new acquisitions like Elise Thorsnes and Katrina Gorry acclimate quickly. None of those things would be particularly surprising, and if a few happen, this team starts to look a lot better.

8. Sky Blue FC (25%)

Why they’ll finish eighth: Because it will take most of the season to find the balance they’re looking for. This is a very young roster, and has undergone quite a lot of turnover. Like many teams in the league, they’re ridiculously overstuffed with attackers, but far too light on solid defenders. I do think that the personnel is flexible and talented enough to overcome the apparent liabilities; I just think it will take a while to get things sorted out. In the meantime, this looks like a maddeningly inconsistent team, who will play the first-place team off the pitch one week, only to fall on their face against a last-place team the next.

Why I might be wrong: I make it a point not to bet against Carli Lloyd. For all her flaws, she appears to be an exceptional lead-by-example player. If she is motivated and finds a vein of form, she could help turn the team’s transformation into overdrive. And while the team’s structure doesn’t make a ton of sense on paper, Sky Blue is chock full of massively underrated players. If they are able to find a formation that capitalizes on Lloyd, which lets the young legs do the running around her, and which compensates for the weakness they’ll inevitably suffer in the central midfield, this could be a genuinely great team.

Tier Four: Sigh…

9. Houston Dash (5%)

Why they’ll finish ninth: I already wrote several pieces on Houston, so I won’t belabor the point much here. They’ll finish last because their roster is (much) weaker than everyone else in the league, because their front office isn’t going to do anything to fix those problems, and because it’s exceptionally hard to stay motivated when you’re surrounded by institutional decay.

Why I might be wrong: The problems with the Dash are mostly upstairs. By all accounts, the players and coaches are giving it 100%, and there is a lot to be said for a strong team mentality. If everyone is pulling in the same direction, and if the organizational plans are well-defined, teams that look fairly weak on paper can turn in some impressive results. It would be genuinely shocking if Houston was good enough to make the playoffs, but a solid sixth place performance shouldn’t be seen as impossible.

Route Two Soccer: Is There a Method to Houston’s Madness?

Posted on by RJ Allen

It’s been a strange offseason for the Houston Dash, in more ways than one. The last few months have been filled with peculiar decisions, many of which have baffled even the friendliest evaluators. And it’s all truly come to a head now–just a couple weeks before the start of the season–with the breaking news that Christen Press (the supposed coup de grace of the whole offseason) would not be playing for the club. 

In this column, I’m going to walk through some of the big decisions and try to explain them. That will be more difficult for some than others, and I won’t shy away from calling out the bad and weird choices. But the overall theme of the column is simple: it’s been a strange offseason, but maybe not quite as incoherent as many seem to think. I’m not ready to say that we should “trust the process,” but I do think there is some method to the madness.

The New Coaching Staff

To begin, it’s crucial to note the excellent pedigree of the new coaching staff. Head coach Vera Pauw has a strong record in the international game, having spent the last two decades coaching Scotland, the Netherlands, Russia, and South Africa. While she won no major trophies in those jobs, she achieved some real success, including a semifinals appearance at Euro 2009.

The Dash often seems to make decisions haphazardly, and with little attention to detail, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. Pauw was a strong hire, and that was augmented by the good decision to bring in Lisa Cole as the assistant coach. Transitioning from the international game to a domestic league is always somewhat difficult, and the NWSL is a special challenge—with roster limits, harsh spending caps, and byzantine transfer rules. Having someone with some experience in the league is a very good idea, and Cole fits the bill.

That said, some of the more confusing decisions this offseason do seem to reflect a poor understanding of the league structure and/or lack of familiarity with the current player pool. Still, some growing pains are to be expected. The question isn’t whether Pauw has hit the ground running, but whether her overall vision is strong enough to handle the inevitable bumps in the road.

We won’t really know the answer for a while. The Dash have been a mess for four years now, and realistically the best hope for 2018 is to patch together some of the major holes and get things in line for a strong push in 2019. Miracles can happen, of course, and the Dash certainly shouldn’t treat this season as a lost cause before it starts. But in terms of setting expectations, it’s probably more important to look for evidence of growth than to focus too much on results as such.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the big issues of the offseason and assess what they mean:

Trading Andressinha for Savannah Jordan

On its face, this is a tough one to explain. Andressinha is one of the best creative midfielders in the league and has a real chance of turning the corner to become a genuine superstar. Plus, it’s not like Houston was overflowing with talent in this role and could afford to make a move. The step down from her to their next best option (Kristie Mewis?) is enormous. Meanwhile, Savannah Jordan is a good young talent but has yet to really show outside of college. Plus, Houston already has a boatload of young forwards with potential. Jordan could break out and become a star, but at the moment it’s not even obvious that she’s a starter.

So there’s a lot to dislike about the trade. But it’s worth considering two mitigating factors. First, if Andressinha wanted out (which seems to have been the case), there really wasn’t anything Houston could do to stop it. The NWSL isn’t a cartel and any player of sufficient ability can simply hop on a plane to Europe. Given that, Houston was over a barrel in trade negotiations. They not only had to find a deal they liked, they had to find a deal that the player would accept. If she said “Portland, or nothing,” that would leave Houston with almost no leverage in trade negotiations. Better to get a good player by trading her to Portland than nothing at all.

Second, while Houston has plenty of forwards (more on that below), Jordan is a different type of player than most of their other options. They have a lot of technical attackers with blistering pace, but (apart from one year with Jess McDonald) they’ve never had much luck finding a true number nine. Jordan could be the answer. That’s an even more pressing concern if the next-best option (Rachel Daly) might not be available on the forward line this year (again, more on that below).

The College Draft

Thanks to their eighth-place finish last year, Houston went into the draft with the third overall pick. Before the draft even started, though, they traded that pick to Washington, in exchange for Lindsay Agnew and the sixth pick. Once again, this was an initially puzzling move. Agnew is yet another forward, and while she has some experience at fullback it’s hardly obvious that counting on a converted forward in that role was worth trading down in picks. That felt even truer when Washington used that number three pick to select Rebecca Quinn—precisely the sort of player that Houston desperately needs. Still, Agnew is a useful contributor, and Houston certainly need flexible players, so it’s not impossible to understand the move.

With their picks in the draft, Houston did reasonably well, picking up one player who seems likely to fit right into a starting role (Haley Hanson) along with several others who could easily be real contributors. Moreover, the choices seem to indicate what sort of qualities Pauw values: grit, determination, and flexibility.

Houston’s ethos has always been scrappy, but the fight has tended to drain away over the long doldrum periods each year when the team drifts aimlessly. It seems that Pauw may be focused on bolstering that spirit, bringing in fighters who will put everything on the line. There’s some reason to think that doubling down on that attitude could bring positive results. Many “small” teams over the years have thrived by cultivating a strong collective ethos, one which allows them to punch above their weight.

It remains an open question whether Pauw is able to actually produce such a result. Initial results are promising but tell us relatively little; enthusiasm is always high in the preseason but lags once results start to drift away. We will need to check back in come July or August to see whether spirits remain high and whether the ethic of giving 100% for the team has persisted.

International Signings

Houston made two splashes into the international market this winter, picking up two young South African players—Thembi Kgatlana and Linda Motlhalo. The former is yet another forward, while the latter seems to be an attacking midfielder. I don’t pretend to know enough about these players to say whether they are worthwhile gambles, but they are certainly known quantities to Pauw from her time coaching South Africa.

Perhaps they will be revelations, and evidence that bringing in a coach with more experience in the international game was a wise move. However, there’s also a real possibility that they are dud signings. We have plenty of experience over the years of new coaches coming into jobs and immediately signing the players they know from their previous, worse team. It rarely goes well. When it does work, it’s often because those new players fit well into a coach’s preferred style and can help the other players integrate into that mold. It remains to be seen what exactly Pauw’s style is, but once we’ve seen half a season, we’ll be in a much better position to assess these moves.

Still, there’s a problem above and beyond the question of whether these players are actually any good. Put simply: international slots are valuable and Houston is now committed to using two of them on players who (even in the best case scenario) only project as supplemental. Was there anyone else available willing to come to Houston? Maybe not. After all, that’s the constant problem of bad teams: precisely because they’re poorly run, it’s hard to attract talent. Still, slots can be traded. Is it inconceivable that Houston could have dealt one or both of these slots to Seattle in exchange for some good defensive players?

It is possible that I’ll be proven wrong, but this feels like a major case of Pauw failing to grasp the importance of NWSL rules and structure. International slots are useful commodities, and Houston simply is not extracting full value here.

The Dispersal Draft

Houston was given the sixth pick in the dispersal draft, which locked them out of some of the best players, but also gave them the 13th pick. Given the wealth of options available, they could be confident of picking up two extremely useful players that might plausibly fill some of the big holes in the defense and the midfield.

However, when their turn came, Houston did not choose a player like Angela Salem, Allysha Chapman, Julie King, or Christen Westphal—solid NWSL defenders with proven track records—but instead selected the rights to Kyah Simon. Notably, because Simon was not actually on Boston’s roster, she did not come with the waiver attached to all the other Boston players. That means Houston will have to use an international slot and roster spot on her.

For those following along, this was an utterly baffling decision, made all that much harder to explain when Pauw suggested that they would have taken Simon second if they’d had the chance and that they were thankful that another team had voluntarily passed on her in order to let Houston get her. This feels like another example of extreme naiveté and has been roundly criticized. Then consider that Simon is a fine player, but hardly a game-changer, and that Houston already has a virtual clone of Simon in Kristie Mewis, and the decision feels even more inexplicable.

For a while, it wasn’t even clear that they would be able to sign Simon, which would have turned a strange pick into a complete disaster. However, they were able to get the deal done. To add another layer, Simon came down with an injury and seems likely to miss a month or more of the season. When she eventually does make it back, many will be watching with great anticipation to see whether this enormous gamble will pay off.

With their 13th pick, Houston once again passed on Salem, opting instead for another young international: Lotta Okvist. The jury will have to remain out there for a while, but it once again felt strange to see Houston doubling down on young, unproven talent.

The Big Trade

Over the past two years, when Carli Lloyd started, the Dash played like a playoff contender, earning 23 points from 13 games. Without Lloyd, they managed 23 points in 31 games. For all her limitations, Lloyd made a big difference for this team. But she wanted out, leading Houston to get themselves involved in the single biggest offseason deal: sending Lloyd and Janine Beckie to Sky Blue in a three-way trade that netted them the rights to Christen Press.

As soon became clear, however, obtaining the rights to Press does not necessarily mean the same thing as obtaining Press herself. Doubts began to flow fairly quickly, as Press made no effort to even acknowledge the trade. Still, the front office insisted that she’d be playing for the Dash, and any claims to the contrary were just rumors. Little changed over the next seven weeks, with the season drawing ever nearer and Press apparently no closer to actually putting on a Houston kit. Still, the Dash continued to act as if she’d be joining them and there was never any clear evidence to the contrary. 

All that changed on Friday evening, when Corey Roepken reported that she would not be joining the Dash.

This is obviously a huge blow to Houston, who appear to have traded one reluctant superstar (and a useful contributor, too) for an even more reluctant superstar. They may eventually be able to trade Press to a team she actually wants to play for, but (just as with Andressinha), it’s hard to imagine them getting anything close to good value under these conditions.

So what happened here, and is there any good justification for Houston’s decision-making process?

Well, it’s not had to understand why they wanted her. As I’ve written before, Press is a true superstar and one who is far closer to her peak than Lloyd. There are few players in the world the equal of Press, and she would have been an excellent fit in the Houston system–providing a rock of stability in the middle of the attack, improving all the players around her, and pitching in plenty of wonder-goals in the process. Strictly in terms of player value, the trade made a ton of sense for Houston. 

But unfortunately for Houston, players aren’t just numbers on paper; they’re human beings with free will. And Press just doesn’t seem to have been willing to play for Houston. 

At this point, one can’t help but ask a few pointed questions. First, why did Press turn them down? It may not have anything to do with Houston in particular, but the general sense of chaos and confusion that surrounds this organization certainly can’t have helped. Second, why didn’t they get a commitment from the player before making the deal? There’s some risk in every deal, but you can manage that risk significantly by looking before you leap. Third, even if they couldn’t get a firm commitment, why didn’t they negotiate some terms to the deal which provided them compensation if Press held out? Chicago made out like bandits in this deal; was there really no way that Houston could have extracted something else?

At the end of the day, Houston badly miscalculated here, on several levels. And while there are mitigating circumstances here, they can only mitigate so much.

Looking forward, will the Dash at least be able to make some lemonade out of these lemons? Possibly. Maybe Press will discover that holding out is harder than expected, and join the team in a month or two. Maybe they’ll eventually get a deal they like from a team where Press is willing to play. Maybe US Soccer will step in and ‘persuade’ Press to make nice. Or maybe they’ll provide Houston with some sort of competence-subsidy to make up for their blunder here. And least likely of all: maybe the league will hire a commissioner who will broker a deal that’s acceptable to all parties.

Putting it All Together: What is the Logic Behind this Team?

Taking all these moves together, it feels difficult to isolate a motivating theme. What sort of team is Pauw building? One based on commitment and team effort…except from the big marquee signings? One based on a powerful attack that plans to win a bunch of 4-3 games, or a deep-defending squad that will lump balls up to the forwards and hope for a bit of individual genius? More bluntly: Why are they stockpiling forwards when the defense was (by far) the biggest weakness? Are they simply abandoning the idea of a strong central midfield spine? If so, how will they set up to compensate for the hole in the center of the pitch?

I have an idea here, which isn’t quite a grand unified theory of the Houston offseason, but which does try to fit together all the available facts into a relatively coherent model. It goes like this: the Dash simply don’t have the pieces to put together a rock solid roster for 2018, so there’s no point in trying to fight on the level. Better to play a high-variance game and hope that some lottery tickets pay off.

Why trade for Press without any commitment that she’ll play? Because Press is good enough to take the risk. Maybe she’ll grit her teeth and play hard for the sake of her national team spot. Or maybe you’ll even be able to convince her that Houston is a team on the rise and that she wants to be part of it. If so, you get a world class striker in a good trade. If not…well, nothing helps a team bond like adversity.

Why invest in so many forwards and hope that you’re able to convert several to more defensive roles? Because forwards are generally the most skillful players, and it’s easier to learn to defend than it is to learn how to create. It won’t work for every player, but maybe you get lucky and find a clear conversion success story. They struck gold with Amber Brooks last year, maybe they’ll do the same with Rachel Daly this year.

Why not sign or trade for any shuttling midfielders to fill the huge hole in the center of the pitch? That’s a dangerous choice since all the attackers in the world won’t accomplish much without decent suppliers. On the other hand, precisely because that job is so difficult, it’s really hard to acquire those players. You can try to bring in cut-rate replacements, but they’re likely to just get overrun. Given limited resources, then, it might make more sense to jump ship and focus on other strengths. After all, if you have the pace to burn and a target forward who can play with back to goal and draw in the rest of the attack (i.e. Christen Press), you might be able to get away with bypassing the midfield.

Why not get yourself a rock solid holding midfielder? Well…okay, I’ve got nothing here. I have no idea what they’re doing. Perhaps they can use Okvist or Cari Roccaro? But yes, this seems like a huge problem, and it’s very confusing why they haven’t done anything to fix it.

The Bottom Line

The biggest problem with Houston’s roster is the overabundance of C+ and B- players. These folks aren’t bad, and they can be quite useful in the right circumstances. But Houston has a lot of them, and unless several make a big leap forward, they’re simply going to have a weaker roster than most of their competition. That was true even when it seemed like they would be building around Press. It’s even more true now.

Compounding that, it’s also a strangely constructed group, overloaded with attackers and seeming to rely quite heavily on some questionable players in key roles. Can Janine Van Wyk do better? Maybe, if she’s given a system in which her lack of pace and poor footwork isn’t so exposed. If not, who else can play center back? Will Daly and/or Agnew successfully transition into rampaging fullbacks? Maybe. But if not, what’s Plan B? Who exactly is going to supply all these forwards with the ball?

These are all fair questions, and it’s not obvious if Pauw and her staff have the answers. But when push comes to shove, a team’s success often has as much to do with attitude and execution as it does with pure ability. If Pauw can get the team playing for each other, and can instill a clear defensive structure, the Dash might end up far more solid than critics are expecting. On the other side, if they can find the right equations to get their attacking players working together, Houston might end up scoring quite a few goals.

Neither is a sure bet by any means, but if Houston is the consensus worst team in the league this year (which I think they probably are), they have a bigger variance than some of the similarly-situated teams of the last few years. That’s hardly a ringing endorsement, but it’s at least a word of caution to those already prepared to write them off. There is plenty to criticize about Houston’s offseason. And chances are high that they will struggle. But there are some glimmers of daylight here, and it’s worth giving them a chance to show what they’ve got before passing final judgment.

Route Two Soccer – A Good Trade for Sky Blue

Posted on by RJ Allen

In the first big NWSL blockbuster deal of the offseason, Sky Blue traded away one of their key players. It will be hard to imagine the New Jersey side without Kelley O’Hara, who has been a bulwark of the team’s structure, formation, and identity since the founding of the league. However, while it’s obviously never a good thing to lose a world-class player, this was a good deal for Sky Blue, which should help them compete not just in 2017, but for years to come.

The key difficulty with replacing a player like O’Hara is her versatility and adaptability. From her hybrid wingback position last year, she covered almost the entire right flank, offering pace and precision in the attack, wide possession in the midfield, and defensive coverage at the back. There is probably no single player in the league who can fill all those responsibilities. However, this deal does a very good job of covering that gap with two players, and in doing so provides critical depth.

Shea Groom is very good and should be even better at Sky Blue

Shea Groom is already among the league’s best players, a fact which has gone slightly unrecognized due to FCKC’s broader struggles, and her role as a supporting forward rather than a pure goal-scorer. But look at the work she did playing behind Sydney Leroux, and then imagine that same inventiveness, aggression, and movement being leveraged by the world’s best player. Groom was already a very good player, but the chance to play off Sam Kerr for an entire year could be what it takes to launch her up to the next level. Her game is based on inventive movement into space, insightful passing, and sheer relentless aggression. Those qualities will fit perfectly into the Sky Blue attack. With Kerr as the focal point, Groom will be free to pull strings from behind and then burst into unlocked spaces.

This is something that Sky Blue desperately missed in 2017, with O’Hara offering some support, and players like Maya Hayes often making critical contributions as well. But O’Hara’s defensive responsibilities kept her too deep to sustain useful wide possession on a regular basis, and the other forward options were too inconsistent. Groom should fill that space, and free up everyone else to focus more on their own positional responsibilities as well.

That is an important, underlooked feature of this deal. Obviously, Sky Blue’s problem in 2017 wasn’t in the attack (they were among the league leaders in goal scored), but rather the defense. However, those things are connected. Their attack was strong, but often extremely chaotic. They scored by throwing numbers forward, trying to get the ball to Kerr, and hoping for the best. Bringing in a player like Groom – who offers inventiveness, skill in possession, and the potential to form a unified strike force with Kerr – could enable a far more coherent team structure. If so, it will significantly bolster the defense, rendering them less susceptible to being ripped apart in transition.

Christina Gibbons will make a big difference

Bringing in Christina Gibbons should also help on that front. She offers the sort of smooth possession and creative passing from deep positions that Sky Blue was desperately missing last year. Her skill on the ball, and her off-the-charts passing IQ, could be critical to a smoother game.

The big question with Gibbons is her best position. She started last season at left back, before moving to the central midfield halfway through the season. The transition was generally successfully, if not a perfect fit. The problem is that she simply isn’t as fast or as physical as you’d like from a modern attacking fullback, while also not (yet) showing the positional acumen you’d like in a central midfielder. Those are not huge liabilities, and even without being a perfect fit in either role she remains an extremely good player. But if she is able to settle into one role, and learn to compensate more effectively for her modest limitations, she could be a truly excellent player.

If the team is willing to think a little outside the box, there are a lot of options here. For example, while Sky Blue is already possessed of some solid midfield depth, a 3-5-2 setup might be able to leverage their strengths and manage some of their weaknesses. Adding a third body to the backline could stabilize the defense, and give Gibbons a bit more freedom to play a more expansive role upfield, without needing to use her exclusively in the already-clogged central midfield positions. This is just one idea. Surely, there are plenty of other options.

The other piece of the deal – the swap in draft picks – is not likely to have major immediate consequences, but does give Sky Blue some additional options. Their biggest needs are: 1) a pure defensive midfielder, 2) depth in defense, and 3) wingers. Unfortunately, the pickings in those areas are somewhat slim. But with two consecutive picks, they may now be able to spend one on filling those gaps, while using the other on a better player, even if she doesn’t necessarily fit a particular need.

Losing O’Hara is tough, but this deal is a good one

In the end, Sky Blue have done a superb job managing the loss of a club talisman. O’Hara provided on all three lines, and no single player could have replaced her. But the combination of Groom and Gibbons gives them a reasonably close approximation of O’Hara’s contributions, while also adding significantly to the club’s depth. Last year, they often felt like the Sam and Kelley show, with everyone else just trying to the boat from sinking. Under those conditions, trading out one world-class player for two good-to-great players makes a lot of sense. Particularly when those two players are young, and have enormous breakout potential.

Any trade which gives up a player as good as Kelley O’Hara will be tough to swallow. And by itself, this is probably only a lateral move for 2017. It doesn’t fix the core problem of the defense, and it actually magnifies the problem of relative inexperience in the team. Still, by adding several players of great quality, it does a lot to improve the team’s chances in the long term. And if one or both of Groom and Gibbons take that next step forward, we might just look back on this as a key moment in Sky Blue’s transition from a solid mid-table team to a title contender.

That doesn’t make it a bad trade for Utah, especially given Laura Harvey’s noted skill at using the international market to bolster her team. And there is still plenty of time for other big moves (with the rumored return of Caitlin Foord very much in the mix) to complicate the picture. But this is certainly a strong start to the Reddy era at Sky Blue.

Route Two Soccer: 3 Winners and 2 Losers from the NWSL Final

Posted on by RJ Allen

Winner: Portland, for getting the job done

The Thorns showed up with a chip on their shoulder, ready to complete the ‘unfinished business’ of last season. It’s strange to say for a team that has now won either the league title or the shield in three out of the league’s five seasons, but Portland has felt like an underachiever. With the talent at their disposal, not to mention the infrastructure and institutional support, anything less than a title this year would have felt like a disappointment. Beyond that, it’s important to remember that Portland started this season poorly, and still looked to be struggling well into the summer. There was talk about ‘too many stars, not enough teamwork’ and questions about whether they would ever actually put it all together.

Well, they put it together. Following a loss on July 1, Portland went on a run in which they won 11 of 13 games, including the semifinal and final. They integrated their stars as they returned from the Euros and injury, settled into a flexible tactical system, and started to look as good as they always expected to be.

In a league without all that much tactical innovation, coach Mark Parsons’ back three was a breath of fresh air, and helped to revitalize their attack without doing anything to weaken their stout defense. Dropping Christine Sinclair back behind the forwards was another critical innovation, allowing her to orchestrate the attack from a deeper position, and then crash in behind to pick up second balls and knockdowns.

Portland didn’t have anything close to their best game of the year in the final, but it was enough to get the job done. They played a composed, compact, and stultifying game—conceding plenty of marginal chances but stifling the big ones. It wasn’t pretty, but no one in Portland will care much about that.

Loser: The beautiful game

All three of the games between these two teams this season were tight affairs, but this one took things to a different level. That’s not surprising, necessarily, since cup finals often end up being some of the least exciting games of an entire campaign. When the stakes are this high, teams play conservatively, looking to avoid mistakes, and the quality of play often suffers. This game was no exception.

In their postgame press conferences, both coaches specifically used the word “battle” to describe the game, and neither seemed to be using the term metaphorically. It was a tense and brutal affair, a grim and physical game, without much to recommend it in the way of skill or tactical quality.

Portland deserves special credit (or blame, depending on your perspective), making it clear from the first minute that they would match North Carolina’s aggressive style directly. This preemptive physicality ensured a choppy and violent game, with tight marking and aggressive tackling making it very difficult for either side to develop any rhythm.

To the extent that there was any real ‘beauty’ in the game, it came on the defensive side of things. In particular, North Carolina deserves credit here, for the way that their players moved as a unit. The interactions between the central defense and central midfield, in particular, were lovely. As Dahlkemper tracked a runner, Mewis would drop in behind to take her spot. As Erceg drifted out wide to fill in the gap left by an attacking fullback, Dahlkemper stepped left and Zerboni drifted in to close down the angles exposed by those moves. It was lovely stuff.

But this was the exception more than the rule. On the whole, these teams came to shut each other down, and they mostly succeeded. That did plenty to raise the tension but didn’t do much for the lover of the beautiful game.

Loser: Danielle Chesky, for calling a truly terrible game

As noted, this was a physical and violent game, and ultimately that comes from the teams who chose to play that way. But the final guilt has to rest with the referee, who allowed it all to unfold. While she got some hold back on the game in the second half, the first 45 minutes were a nightmare of escalating violence. I have written before about the problems with loose officiating in this league. And it would be hard to find a more representative example than this game.

There’s an unwritten code for referees: lighter punishments for star players, no cards early in the game, don’t make yourself the focus. Those all came together in this game, in the opening three minutes, when Tobin Heath barged into Taylor Smith from behind, dislocating her shoulder. It was about as clear a yellow card as you’ll ever see, but received only a warning. And things only escalated from there. In the opening half hour, there were at least half a dozen awful challenges, and dozens more examples of rough play. And Chesky still hadn’t seen a single foul that she judged worthy of a booking.

By the 39th minute, North Carolina was forced to make their second injury-based substitution, and the game had gone completely off the rails.

She eventually discovered the cards in her pocket and showed a couple to Portland players before the end of the half. And by the second half, with control at least marginally re-asserted, things started to look more like a soccer match and less like a game of rugby. But even with those improvements, the damage was mostly done.

The players deserve a referee who will punish dangerous play. The fans deserve a referee who will call fouls accurately. “Letting the players decide the game” is a canard, and you only need to watch this match to see why. By letting violent play go unpunished, Chesky didn’t stay out of the limelight; she made herself the story, to the detriment of the game that everyone was hoping to see.

Winner: The NWSL, for turning the corner

The NWSL suffers under the weight of history. Previous women’s soccer leagues have generated far greater fanfare, bigger audiences, more excitement, only to fold after three years. This league has survived, but sometimes has seemed to achieve this success at the expense of intensity or excitement. It can feel like the unloved stepchild of the US Women’s National Team, a training ground to keep them fresh but not something to generate much passion.

But, increasingly, that narrative is falling apart. Sure, some of the old guard clearly didn’t value the league, and maybe some of the current stars don’t treat it entirely seriously. But you only have to look at the passion and commitment and intensity of the players in this match to see how much it matters.

For the young stars of US soccer—players like Sam Mewis, Abby Dahlkemper, Lindsey Horan, and Lynn Williams—the NWSL has always been a part of the landscape. To them, this is the pinnacle of their professional achievement, and there is absolutely nothing second rate about it. They care. They care a whole lot.

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

I talked to Sam Mewis in the mix zone after the game, and she had the demeanor of someone who had just lost the World Cup final. The intensity, the passion, the commitment that she feels about the national team…it is all there in precisely the same degree for this league.

And that is a great thing.

Winner: Orlando, for doing a great job hosting

There has been a lot of discussion in the past week about future NWSL finals. Should the league return to a system of allowing the top seed to host, or persist with the predetermined venue? There are fair arguments on both sides (and decent arguments for going an entirely different third direction), but one huge advantage of a preset location is the opportunity for the league and media to plan ahead of time, and to showcase the nicest venues on offer.

This is not a knock on North Carolina, who I’m sure would also have done a great job hosting. But Orlando gave us a fantastic experience, and deserve some recognition for the work they put in. It’s my favorite stadium experience of any in the league, with a beautiful pitch and a wonderful design. The accommodations for the media day on Friday were stupendous, the press facilities were excellent, and the staff went above and beyond the call of duty to give us a great experience.

While the overall attendance numbers were less than ideal, the pre-set location gave a lot the league’s superfans a chance to attend. And in many ways, that’s more important than the simple topline number. Making it easier for those who care the most to make the pilgrimage should be a big priority. The NWSL final should be an Event—and Orlando did it’s best to help that process along.

Shoutouts are also deserved for Jen Cooper, who put on a great WoSoCo, and for the supporters groups of teams all around the league who made the journey and showed up strong. And an extra special mention goes to the Riveters, who flew 3000 miles to support their team, and helped bring the intensity and excitement that this game and this league deserves.

Route Two Soccer – Evolve or Die

Posted on by RJ Allen

Kat Farris

Kat Farris

The Chicago Red Stars entered 2017 with high hopes. After several strong seasons that ended in the semifinals, this year was supposed to be their turning point. And not just in terms of results. They were going to be more flexible, would take better advantage of their talented roster, would develop and grow. But now after another disappointing semifinal result, it’s time to take a look back and see what happened to those promises.

The Big Change

There was one big change, and it was an enormously successful one. After starting the season at center back, Julie Ertz was soon moved up into the midfield, where she had an immediate impact. Ertz is a dynamic defensive player, exceptionally disruptive, and capable of initiating quick attacks after winning possession. Those skills become more valuable in a more advanced role, and Chicago used her to great effect.

In the early stages of the year, coach Rory Dames even experimented with playing Ertz in an attacking midfield role. While she is not anyone’s idea of a playmaker, her physical presence, disruptive abilities, and aggressive attacking ability all were useful in that advanced role. However, as the season progressed, she mostly played in a pure holding role, occasionally coming forward but mostly sitting back and shielding the defense.

On the whole, the Ertz experiment was a success, even as the effect seemed to diminish as the season progressed. But this wasn’t just about Ertz; the whole team seemed to wilt in the final several months, eventually stumbling into the playoffs as the 4th seed after a strong start.

Why did this happen?

The simplest answer might be injuries and fatigue. While Chicago was notable all season for the sparseness of its injury report (often listing everyone as fully healthy), it was also clear that many of those ‘fully fit’ players were actually carrying some knocks. Key players like Alyssa Naeher, Danielle Colaprico, Christen Press (just to name a few) have looked less than 100% for months. That might be due to the wear and tear of the season.

Sometimes teams just peak at the wrong time, and that might be what happened with Chicago. However, the story of Chicago’s failures shouldn’t be reduced purely to a problem with the players on the field. Because this team was also hampered by a serious lack of tactical innovation, something that became all too clear in the semifinal this weekend.

The 442 Diamond: Constraints and Limitations

Chicago spent virtually the entire season in the same tactical setup: a pinched 442 diamond, which is characterized by tucked in wide midfielders. We saw this again on Sunday, with Colaprico and Huerta (neither of whom would fit anyone’s idea of a traditional winger) playing in the wide positions.

This setup offers a very stable base and is excellent for choking off threats through the midfield. The pinched in wide players offer support, and can easily collapse on the ball when needed. And at least theoretically the diamond facilitates a short-passing midfield game. By moving away from the 442 as ‘two banks of four,’ you generate some forward impetus in attack.

However, the diamond is also severely limited. It features no true wide attackers, offloading the entire responsibility for width in the attack to the fullbacks. Of course, the modern fullback is generally expected to contribute significantly to the attack, but in most systems is given support by some form of wide attacker. In the diamond, there is no such support. That can be an advantage—since it gives your fullbacks a lot of empty space to run into—but is also a danger. Without clear partners to link up with, the fullbacks can easily become isolated. They may find it difficult to join the attack at all, which effectively condenses the team’s attacking options to a very narrow pathway down the center of the pitch.

Furthermore, the diamond also cedes wide spaces to the opponent’s attackers, to potentially devastating effect. On Sunday, North Carolina’s wide attackers (especially Taylor Smith down the right) were given endless expanses of green space to race through. With the Red Stars fullbacks stuck back in their defensive third, there was no one to stop those free runs. Casey Short did admirable work defending deep, but without her and Gilliland moving forward to join the attack, Chicago was left with a clogged midfield and nowhere else to go.

Route One Soccer with a Route Two Roster

When it works well, a diamond can give those players a chance to shine. But once countered, it offers very little flexibility. Facing off against North Carolina’s 4-2-2-2 ‘magic square,’ Chicago were deprived of space in the midfield and pressed back deep in defense. Without any real wide attackers, they could not push back Carolina’s fullbacks in order to relieve pressure.

And this was by no means the first time that Chicago has run into problems with their diamond. In fact, their persistence with this setup is one of the most baffling things about their season. For all the claims early in the year about fluidity and flexibility, they arguably were the most rigid team in the entire league.

In principle, a diamond can provide a useful staging ground for a strong midfield possession game. And at times this year, we saw the Red Stars finally seeming to produce the sort of technical soccer that has long been promised. The problem is that this depends almost entirely on the opposition’s willingness to let you play. As teams have increasingly packed the midfield and pressed their fullbacks high, Chicago’s central players have been starved of both space to operate and outlets for relief.

This is compounded by the apparent desire for Press to stay high up the pitch, rather than having her drop back to receive the ball and initiate attacks. Without her support in the midfield, passing lanes grow even more clogged, and attacks fizzle into wasted possession or costly turnovers.

Ultimately, against teams willing to adapt to circumstance, Chicago has been reduced to a caricature of their direct style. Instead of quick ball movement opening up lanes for through-balls, they are forced to resort to lumping the ball forward and hoping for knockdowns. This is hardly a good use of their resources under any circumstance and was an unmitigated disaster against North Carolina. On long ball after long ball, players like Mewis, Zerboni, Dahlkemper, and Erceg rose far above their Chicago counterparts to easily control the ball and restart their attack. It was as ineffective as it was baffling.

If Chicago were a fast, physical team with players of limited skill but maximal effort, this would make perfect sense. Route one soccer is an effective way to level the playing field against superior opposition. It allows your strong defensive unit to stay deep while giving you a modest chance at a lucky break on the attacking end.

But a team with Dani Colaprico, Vanessa DiBernardo, Christen Press, and Yuki Nagasoto in the middle of their attack has no business playing that way.

Where to Go from Here?

Chicago is blessed with an excellent roster, and much of the credit for that goes to coach Rory Dames, who has built this team up year by year. Dames was nominated for manager of the year, at least partially in recognition of that work. However, there’s a difference between assembling a top-level group of players and getting the most out of those players once you have them. And on the second front, it’s hard to say that Dames’ reign has been a success.

A team picked by many to win the Shield instead finished a distant fourth, and played one of their worst games of the season in the semifinal. And that’s not too dissimilar from what happened in 2016, either.

All in all, a team with a stacked roster and limitless potential has now spent the past two seasons barely staying above water. Over 46 games (regular season plus two semifinals) Chicago has managed a goal difference of only +5. That’s a shockingly weak result for a team filled with such good players. And it suggests that whatever the proximate causes for their poor performance in the semifinals, there are deeper issues with the team as a whole.

It would be surprising if Chicago made a coaching change in the offseason, but for the first time since the start of the NWSL, it’s no longer outside the realm of possibility. And regardless of who takes the helm in 2018, the priority will need to be significant tactical evolution. Playing direct helped turn Chicago into a playoff team, but unless they can diversify their options, they are unlikely to take the next step forward.