Tag: Slack Chat

Backline Chat: High and Lows as the NWSL Returns

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Welcome to our midweek Backline chat. The international break is over. The NWSL is back. There’s plenty to cover, but let’s start with the playoff race. Did this weekend’s results change anyone mind about who will make the cut?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I knew the results of the Orlando game going in. But boy oh boy did they not look like a playoff team.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I literally was just typing the same thing.

RJ Allen: It was almost shocking how not put together they were for a game they should have gotten 3 points on. They needed 3 points on it, really.

Charles Olney: The first half of that game was dreadful, on both sides. And while Orlando put together a nice 20 minutes or so in the second half, they also stumbled wildly for parts. It certainly wasn’t the sort of performance that screams ‘we’re a playoff team.’

RJ Allen: Utah didn’t look great, and they need some help to get there, but they did look more put together than they had been. The math is wildly not in their favor but in terms of the eye test they were better than Orlando.

Allison Cary: Luis had a good tweet about it, he said “Orlando Pride playing to the level of their opponent once again” on the first Sky Blue goal. That summarizes my feelings on the whole game.

Charles Olney: We feel very far removed from that ridiculous performance the Pride put up against Chicago a month or so ago. But they could easily turn it back around and blow someone out of the water again. It’s just so hard to tell with them.

RJ Allen: At this point the playoffs almost have to be North Carolina, Seattle, Portland, Chicago just on the numbers, right? I feel like something would really have to go wrong for it not to be that mix. Even if Portland and Chicago swapped.

Charles Olney: I wouldn’t bet against Orlando yet, but they’ve given themselves very little margin for error.

Allison Cary: Orlando is unpredictable. But I think NC, Seattle, Portland, and Chicago is a reasonable prediction/assumption.

Charles Olney: They do have two games against other contenders left, and a game against Sky Blue. If they can get nine points there, they’re probably in. If not, they may be out, unless they can steal some points from Carolina.

RJ Allen: It’s funny because any other year Seattle, Portland, Chicago, Orlando would be a great playoff. But with North Carolina blowing everyone out of the water it leaves everyone trying not to be 4th on top of making the playoffs.

Charles Olney: Chicago have a brutal run-in, but that also means they have more chances to pick up important points. You’d have to say that this weekend went about as well as you could hope for on their part. And they didn’t even play!

RJ Allen: I really can’t wait for more teams for a longer playoff. 6 teams in the playoff, with a first round advance for 1 and 2, I think is a real sweet spot in a 12 team league. And I hope the NWSL gets to 12 solid teams soon.

Charles Olney: I’ll disagree there. As I think we’ve covered here before, I don’t really like playoffs at all, so maybe that’s coloring things. But I especially don’t like playoff systems where 50% of the teams make it. I’d be happy keeping it to four teams for the foreseeable future.

RJ Allen: I would be happy with every team making the playoffs and the regular season used for seeding. So you and I might never agree there.

Charles Olney: That is fair.

Alright, so do we have any thoughts about Seattle? They’re not quite locks yet, but you’d have to like their odds at this point. Securing those three points this weekend was huge.

Allison Cary: Admittedly, I’ve missed a lot of Seattle’s games because of the time difference. But I like what I see.

RJ Allen: There once was a soccer team from Seattle. When they were good they were very, very good and when they were bad they were … still pretty good and will likely force Lifetime to host a playoff game in a place Lifetime does not want to host a playoff game in.

Charles Olney: I have to say, Memorial is a garbage venue, but it’s OUR garbage venue and Lifetime just needs to get over themselves and put it on TV. It’s not THAT bad.

RJ Allen: I think if this was the first year that the team played there, I might get Lifetime’s worry. But we all know where Seattle plays and what it looks like.

Allison Cary: Agreed.

RJ Allen: I am fascinated by the goalkeeping in Seattle. I get the stats pack and Betos and Williams are nearly identical this year. Vlatko gave Barnhart like 92% of all minutes when FCKC was still a thing. And now he’s a swapper.

Allison Cary: Yeah, is there a reason Betos didn’t start this weekend? I was a bit surprised to see Williams in goal after she played all of ToN. I would have thought he would go with the better rested option.

RJ Allen: I have not been able to tell when he is going to play one or the other. By man oh man what a gift to be able to have both as an option.

Charles Olney: I think Williams is clearly better, but that it’s also to have two solid options, and I do think your points are interesting: that the numbers are so similar and that Vlatko is rotating.

RJ Allen: They have the rights to Solo too. I mean now that could be a fun 23 person roster with those three.

*crickets*

What? What did I say?

Charles Olney: Okay, final question about the playoff-bound: North Carolina wrapped up the Shield this weekend, surprising absolutely no one. Any thoughts on them, or have we run out of superlatives?

My take is that they played at maybe 75% of their potential this weekend, and in doing so brushed aside arguably their biggest rival without too much trouble. That’s scary.

RJ Allen: They are the best team the NWSL has fielded in 6 years of play. I think they have, as much as it pains me to say, passed the 2014 Seattle Reign. They have a bunch of “no name” players who put in work that has sent 6 to the USWNT. And yeah, yeah Dunn was on the radar but not like she was before this year.

Charles Olney: All the other teams in the league have to be hoping that they run into the same playoff troubles as the Reign.

RJ Allen: Well Holiday has retired and ARod isn’t going this year most likely. Unless Seattle trades for her. For max lol’s.

Allison Cary: The only team that seems to be able to consistently draw points from NC is Utah. Maybe they could share that magic with NC’s playoff opponents?

RJ Allen: I do wonder what a North Carolina vs Seattle final in Portland would look like though.

Allison Cary: Not that I’m looking for them to lose. I’m just not seeing who is going to beat them.

RJ Allen: What will happen first: Sky Blue wins a game or North Carolina gets their second loss?

Charles Olney: Sky Blue! Somehow, they’ve actually been okay in their last few games. And I have a feeling that the climax to this weekend’s game will be enough to draw the team together a bit. I really hope that they’re able to at least pull themselves up to Breakers level of respectability. There’s too much talent on that team for them to be THIS far adrift.

RJ Allen: I don’t know. They are playing teams that need points to survive and that might sink them.

Charles Olney: My case for Sky Blue: the combination of Dorsey, McCaskill, and Groom (and Lloyd when she’s back from her suspension) is finally starting to click. They also have Rodriguez back, and while she isn’t quite the player they need, that’s a big upgrade from Thaisa. And Gibbons is back in the mix. That’s a team that COULD win a couple games in a row. At least in theory.

RJ Allen: Maybe neither happens and the season runs out before either do?

Allison Cary: I’m tempted to go with that answer. Although I think Sky Blue is getting better and might be able to sneak in a win.

Charles Olney: Yeah, ‘neither’ is quite possibly the best bet here.

Slightly turning the conversation, here’s a (not so fun) thing I noticed: if you combined the points from Washington and Sky Blue, they’d still be in last place. By nine points. That is rough.

Allison Cary: Yikes.

Charles Olney: Which leads to an obvious question: if you actually combined their rosters, would they in fact still be in last place? Or would that provide enough depth to paper over some of the problems?

RJ Allen: There is no way either coach can survive, is there? I think they would be higher with a single roster. At least some of the issues with not having XI quality starters would be gone.

Charles Olney: I’d be very surprised if Gabarra is back next year. I wouldn’t be shocked if Reddy is back…assuming that Sky Blue continues to exist. But I have major doubts about that premise, and if there are changes it’s very hard to see Reddy sticking.

Charles Olney: I agree. Both teams struggle defensively, but combine the options and you could get a serviceable backline out there. Then again, neither team should be nearly this bad even just looking at the actual rosters they have, so…

RJ Allen: I don’t know how the league doesn’t step in on Sky Blue after this year. Governor of New Jersey or not. Gibbons might be able to play in the midfield!

Charles Olney: From your lips to god’s ear.

Alright, one more little topic, on a slightly goofier note: imagine that you’re starting a brand new franchise next year. You’re given the option of poaching any single player in the league to build your team around. Who do you pick and why? (I think there’s an obvious answer, but I’m curious if y’all agree)

RJ Allen: Sam Kerr. 100% Sam Kerr.

Allison Cary: Yeah, Sam Kerr is where my brain immediately went.

Charles Olney: Yeah, that’s the one. So if we all agree there, who would be your NEXT choice?

RJ Allen: McCall Zerboni. You can’t build a house without a solid base and I can get good defenders farther down the line. There is not around midfielder who can who what she does as well.

Allison Cary: I have no idea after Sam Kerr, but I like RJ’s answer lol.

Charles Olney: I’m torn here. I’d want to take someone on the younger side, who still has room to grow and you can count on getting quite a few good years from. I think I might take Sam Mewis if she were fully healthy, but that’s a gamble at the moment. It’s hard to argue with Horan, though I’ve never quite been a true believer there.  I can’t really justify not taking Rapinoe, if given the option. Or Dunn. Ertz gives you flexibility. In conclusion: I don’t know, but also like RJ’s answer.

Allison Cary: Horan and Dunn both crossed my mind.

RJ Allen: So I’m working on a “Non American/Non Canadian NWSL Player Power Ranking” to look at the talent from outside of the US and Canada that the league has hosted.

I gave the selection criteria as:

  1. Impact on the league while playing
  2. Impact on the league after they left, if they are no longer playing in the league
  3. Personal awards (MVP, Best XI, ect)
  4. NWSL Titles

100ish votes in, any guesses on the top 5 the world of Twitter has put forward and who would be on your top 5’s?

Charles Olney: I can’t see much of an argument against Little, Fishlock, and Kerr being the top three, so I’m guessing (hoping) they are in the top 5.

RJ Allen: They are all top 5, yes. But one name is much lower than the other two.

Charles Olney: I’m tempted to include Erceg, though I’d be surprised if she is in the top five.  Based on the second criteria, I think you could make a case for Angerer, who has contributed a lot as both player and coach. It’s hard to argue against Marta. And Alanna Kennedy would be in the mix for me as well. And there are plenty that fall into the category just below this group.

RJ Allen: Right now it is:

  1. Sam Kerr 101/105
  2. Marta 91/105
  3. Jess Fishlock 90/105
  4. Kim Little 73/105
  5. Abby Erceg 71/105

No one else is higher than 58, which is Amandine Henry. Angerer is 44.

Allison Cary: Interesting. I actually would not have thought people would vote for Henry. Catley is up there for me.

Charles Olney: I’m disappointed that the top four aren’t all unanimous, but what can you do? It’s a pretty solid list.

RJ Allen: I do think it’s interesting that players who, I would argue have made a huge impact like Nadim aren’t super high. I don’t know if it’s who is voting, if they are trying to not vote for some in place of making others higher or what. But I thought it was neat. The NWSL has a ton of non-American or Canadian talent.

Backline Chat: The Sky Blue Story and Media Responsibility

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Hi everyone, and welcome to this week’s slackchat. We can get into the stuff on the pitch in a second, but first we should address the topic of conditions for players – particularly those who play for the franchises with a little bit less to offer. Obviously, this isn’t a new issue, but it’s back at the front of our minds thanks to Sam Kerr’s comments last weekend about coming back to face Sky Blue.

What do people think about those comments, and about the larger question of amenities for players?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): Personally I think we as media – and I’m including myself in this as much as anyone here at Backline or in American Soccer Media – have in many ways dropped the ball here.

I don’t know about others but I think for me and maybe others there was a sense we didn’t want to “pile on” to a team by bringing up some issues, maybe we couldn’t get a few people on the record or what have you. But it is an open secret that some clubs do not have an acceptable standard and we have largely only acted when something even worse than that happened. Instead of going after the standard because it is what it is when the players had to work and live with every day.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): If it wasn’t for Sam Kerr we wouldn’t even be having this conversation so points for her for being a spotlight on this. I think fans outside of the area don’t have any idea how bad things are or have been. Then it’s a matter of the state of Sky Blue. To me, it’s a bit of a frustration because the owners of the team actually have more money than most people would expect. Why are the owners not putting more resources into Sky Blue and doing things on the cheap? Is it one of those things where the money lost on the club is actually some type of tax loss write-off.

RJ Allen: I don’t think this is just a Sky Blue issue though. I think they might be the worst in some areas but it really isn’t just them.

Becky Schoenecker (@Beckster20): I think it obviously effects the league as a whole, these players already make so many sacrifices and then to ask them to choose between a Utah or Sky Blue the answer is pretty obvious from a quality of life standpoint. I feel like it’s going to turn into a playing for them as a last resort which shouldn’t be the case.

Charles Olney: To me, this big question for Sky Blue is whether there is any interest in turning this into a team that can actually seek to compete with the rest of the league. I don’t mean in terms of player acquisition. Despite their terrible record this year, Sky Blue has a decent roster that could reasonably hang with the other playoff hopefuls. I just mean in terms of producing an acceptable quality of life in a league where standards are going up.

And I think several of you are right to note that this isn’t exclusively a Sky Blue thing. It’s a matter of what standards we think are appropriate leaguewide. And Sky Blue isn’t the only offender on that front.

Luis Hernandez: I’m glad to see that the NWSL is in the process of hiring a director to oversee that clubs are meeting the higher standards.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I agree. And as Becky said, it does affect where people choose to play. Obviously players will want to go somewhere that will give them a reasonable quality of life and help them perform well on the pitch. And there seems to be quite a gap there throughout the current teams.

RJ Allen: I think the league has been too worried about getting its footing that it hasn’t cut ties with teams when it should.

To be frank there are teams in this league that should have been gone years ago but haven’t been “kicked out of the pool” because the league has had very little direction and they “just don’t do that in woso” often.

Luis Hernandez: I mentioned this earlier on Twitter. Is this a case of a rising tide lifts all boats or a rising tide lifts some and has other run aground?

Charles Olney: Luis’s question is a good one (and one not limited to the US). In England, Manchester United is finally joining the party and was given a free step right up to the top level, while other teams have struggled for a long time. But you can understand why. Man U will instantly have resources far in excess of the franchises that have been around a long time. If the primary goal is quality of life, it’s imperative to get them up and rolling.

Allison Cary: I agree with what you said RJ. The league wants stability, especially from a marketing standpoint. If the press isn’t calling out player conditions, then the league can get away with cutting corners on player amenities and keep those teams afloat.

RJ Allen: I think women’s soccer in American has done a very bad job over the three leagues in checking owners out before they come in to the league, as well.

Charles Olney: In the NWSL, we’ve lost Boston, FCKC, and Western New York just in the last two years. But there’s no denying that those changes have resulted in a significant gain for player conditions. The issue is balance. Can you keep the league stable enough to build emotional investment from the fans, while also steadily making progress on these fronts?

RJ Allen: I don’t think losing teams is really all that bad for the league as long as they are being replaced in other locations with better ownership. I feel for the fans but some places just don’t have ownership interests if the owners currently there aren’t stepping up or can’t.

Luis Hernandez: Ultimately, you’re going to have to take a couple of step back as the league is trying to take steps forward. There is always focus on wages for players and the league addresses these issues at a snail’s pace but at least it knows some of the faults and tries to address it without tipping over the apple cart

Becky Schoenecker: I honestly think you can. It’s a shame on the end of the fans who have city teams that move on to ‘better’ markets, but for the league as a whole I think it’s a positive. My issue with it is that I think New Jersey and Washington for instance have great areas, fans, and could be great but there’s a lack of investment and ownership. If hypothetically Atlanta picked up New Jersey and conditions improved substantially I’d be thrilled for the team and league.

RJ Allen: The idea of USL taking over management of the league is something that could change a lot of this.

Or at least it’s nice to think it may.

Luis Hernandez: there’s elements of risk if USL merges with NWSL but the overall reward may be worth it. it still doesn’t address federated player differences.

RJ Allen: We don’t know what would happen with federated players though. That might be a thing of the past.

Charles Olney: I am extremely skeptical of this USL story, but it’s worth at least following along to see whether anything does come of it. I doubt that would be a good model for long-term growth. There’s no denying that the current system has serious issues, but tethering to a lower-tier men’s league doesn’t seem likely to fix the big problems, and might produce a whole lot more issues.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I’m not sure it solves a lot of problems without creating new ones.

Charles Olney: As Luis says, the real issue right now is that US Soccer has control over the purse strings, and doesn’t particularly value the league. But if the solution is simply to give up on a lot of that money, it feels like the cure might be worse than the disease.

Luis Hernandez: One thing that could happen if USL adds NWSL that could happen is that clubs from USL may decide to add a women’s side so there could be more women’s teams overall in the US.

RJ Allen: North Carolina has shown what is possible for an NWSL/USL partnership. And though not all of them would be that dominant, it gives me hope.

Luis Hernandez: I have mentioned that if that is the case, it could potentially lead to a stronger women’s pyramid. USL has what 30+ teams across the US and still adding more markets?

Charles Olney: [insert mandatory pro-rel reference to juice our pageviews]

RJ Allen: Pro teams should not play semi pro and amateur teams and pro/rel is snake oil. Sorry, that just slipped out.

Allison Cary: Do we think most USL teams have the budget to add a women’s side? Genuine question.

RJ Allen: It was a $4 million fee in 2016 for Nashville FC to come in to the USL. That is about what it costs a year (maybe) to run an NWSL side. So I think some clubs would have more than enough to enter a team.

Charles Olney: I find it difficult to believe the US could support that many women’s teams right now. I’d love to be wrong about that, but I think the model of developing the top tier first does make sense. I think the demand needs to be created first.

Luis Hernandez: I don’t know the finances of a typical USL team but I think they could find the money to have a women’s side. It would be nice if it was a requirement like it is in Mexico, look at how quick the success of the women’s league there.

Charles Olney: Okay, this conversation has been great. But I want to return us to RJ’s original point, about the failures of media here. Does anyone have a sense of how media coverage of these issues could be improved? Should we try to describe what we think are the minimum set of standards, and trying to hold teams accountable? Talking to players to give them more chance to make their needs clear? Something else?

RJ Allen: I think we as media need to – as much as it can be hard – need to put down our feelings more. We don’t write about issues sometime because we 1) want to people the people that are doing things that are maybe not great are trying and doing their best or 2) we don’t want to keep hammering a club on something (IE where Seattle plays or where Sky Blue plays) or 3) we don’t want to make people we like or respect look bad.

Women’s soccer is maybe 75% covered by fan media, ourselves included, and that presents challenges covering the deep seeded issues.

Luis Hernandez: Media responsibility is a thing here. You can put some of that on local media for not calling it out but the story has to also have to get traction. Media called out Orlando on attendance and lack of marketing and that became a thing that caused the club front office to act, but it’s still not great. But attendance is easy to have visibility while something behind the scenes are harder to call out and create the attention.

RJ Allen: But it becomes a thing for a week. Three or four people write about it and then we move on. We have to have a longer attention span as media.

Charles Olney: I personally have been surprised at how little we’ve heard from players about this stuff. I don’t know if that’s to do with a sense that the teams are trying, a sense that making waves could be extremely dangerous for players in precarious situations, or simply because media folks haven’t been asking around those stories.

Luis Hernandez: Media can describe poor practice fields or other standards but that’s not getting the push from outraged fans like say playing a match on a base field because we can point to something we all see.

RJ Allen: Players can be cut and left without anything. Sam Kerr has protection as one of the best in the word. Can the same be said for the players this hurts most?

Allison Cary: Yeah, I think the players that would benefit the most from drawing attention to this stuff are the people who can’t without risk of losing their job or some other punishment. That’s why I think its great that Sam Kerr brought attention to it. She has the protection to do so, as RJ said.

Charles Olney: It can be dangerous for players to speak on the record. But I think we in the media have a responsibility to start reporting stories that can’t be tied back to named individuals. A few exposes could go a long way.

RJ Allen: I think it has to come from the non NT – of any country – players.

Charles Olney: I think we all hope that the Players Association is able to step into this space, and start advocating in more aggressive ways.

But I think RJ is right that the PA is very limited in its power because of the disparity between NT players and everyone else.

RJ Allen: I think the PA is a great idea in theory but I have been disappointed with how little they have spoken about anything. Good or bad.

Luis Hernandez: We don’t know what happens behind the scenes

RJ Allen: It’s our job to find out. It is our job and we are a media are failing at it.

Luis Hernandez: I’ve seen players and coaches promote those bracelets to raise money for the PA. I don’t think anyone has asked one of the player reps anything to what the PA is doing

RJ Allen: I’d also like to point out, for the record, Sky Blue is between NYC and Philly with about 100,000 paid sports reporters. And Washington is outside DC with another 50,000. Where are they on any of this? Even the ones that say they care about women’s sports or soccer?

Charles Olney: Alright, after an important, serious conversation, let’s turn to the (slightly) less pressing issue of the games themselves. At the moment, North Carolina is leading the league by 367,425 points, and Seattle has built a small buffer between them and the rest of the playoff contenders. But those 2-4 spots are still very much open. And the 2-7 teams are all playing each other this weekend! What are people excited about?

RJ Allen: North Carolina clinching so we can stop talking about them for 15 minutes.

Luis Hernandez: The first red card being issued in the seaso….oh wait.

Charles Olney: It’s a pretty big weekend. If Seattle, Utah, and Houston were to win, we’d have five teams within two points – all competing for two spots. On the other hand, if Houston and Utah lose, they could find themselves five or six points adrift. For the sake of excitement, I’d love to see the former. (edited)

Luis Hernandez: Marta being named UN goodwill ambass… DOH!

RJ Allen: The Chicago vs Seattle game could be a really big one.

Allison Cary: I think the Orlando-Utah match is a big one. Neither team has been playing great. I think this could be a massive three points for either side.

RJ Allen: Does Utah have 4 rostered defenders that are healthy and not suspended right now?

Luis Hernandez: Every game has real implications on the playoff picture and that’s great. Orlando and Utah have played to two draws in their previous meetings.

Allison Cary: Yeah, and a draw provides the least amount of excitement on the table so that’s probably what will happen. Also RJ: that’s a good question.

RJ Allen: They do not, BTW.

Allison Cary: Yikes.

Luis Hernandez: Has anyone noticed now that NWSL is on ESPN(news) that it seems like there’s a Sports Center Top 10 play featuring the NWSL?

RJ Allen: Very on brand for ESPN.

Charles Olney: Okay, final question: with the Men’s World Cup final coming up, any thoughts connecting it back to women’s soccer?

RJ Allen: If France wins, does that break the French curse and make it possible for the French WNT to win in 2019?

Allison Cary: I’m gonna say no. But that’s mainly because I don’t want to get my hopes up.

RJ Allen: Germany is the only team that has won on the MNT and WNT sides, right? Or does Norway have a WNT and MNT World Cup?

Charles Olney: Germany is the only one. And they never held both simultaneously. It would certainly be cool if France could manage that feat. Especially when the Cup is in France.

RJ Allen: I will be eating lots of French bread during the summer of 2019 in honor of the World Cup. And for no other reason.

Allison Cary: If the MNT wins the Cup tomorrow, and the WNT wins the Cup next year IN FRANCE I’ll probably move there and attempt to become a permanent resident. That seems completely rational.

Luis Hernandez: I think a better story is the French men’s team fails to win the World Cup and the next year the women on home soil win the World Cup to the glory of France. Causing women’s soccer to be the most popular sport in the country

RJ Allen: I don’t want Croatia to get it with their poor support for the WNT though. At least France supports their WNT. Sometimes.

Allison Cary: Yeah, France isn’t perfect but the situation in Croatia is pretty bleak.

Charles Olney: Alright, that’s a wrap. Thanks for participating, and thanks to everyone for reading. And if you’ve got topics you’d like to see us discuss in a future episode, you know where to find us on Twitter.

Backline Chat: How Good is North Carolina, and NWSL Discipline

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Welcome everyone to this week’s Backline chat. We’re talking on Thursday, after yet another huge North Carolina victory last night. So why don’t we start there. The Courage are pretty much a lock to win the Shield, so the only real question is: what percentage chance do you give them to win the championship? Would you rather bet on them, or on the field?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): Honestly right now I am not sure how you don’t pick them to win even with the “curse.” They are beating the teams in the top 6 – outside of Utah – like a drum.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): Yeah, I agree. The one time they lost was a really great goal in the dying minutes of the game. Obviously stuff can change between now and the championship, but I’d absolutely bet on them.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): I’m going with the field. With the playoff setup, a one-off game. Crazy things can happen. The better team doesn’t always win.

Charles Olney: I know a lot has been made over the years about the ‘curse,’ which is sort of an annoying meme. So I’d certainly like to see them win if only for that. But even with their ridiculous dominance so far, I still would have trouble betting on them at over 50% odds. It’s just really hard to beat good teams in the playoffs. That said…given what they’ve done over the last couple weeks…

RJ Allen: I think adding HAO pushes NC over the top though. She is still a really good player and adding her in just makes them that harder to beat.

Charles Olney: It is ridiculous that they were able to add her without giving up any 2018 value. Not that it was a bad trade. I’m pretty high on Doniak and I think Utah may get a lot of value there. But right now, NC went from incredibly good to even-more incredibly good.

Allison Cary: I agree with the idea that anything can happen in the playoffs. But if I had to guess now… like RJ said, they’re consistently dominating teams they will likely meet in the playoffs. Anyone can have a good day, but  if I had to pick one to win the day, I’m definitely picking NCC.

Luis Hernandez: I’m biased and you can’t go against results but versus the Pride when the Courage put the game away in a four minute lapse from Orlando. Any playoff team can find a game plan to counter North Carolina. It’s just a matter of execution.

RJ Allen: NC is like HAO though. You already know what they are going to do. But you still can’t beat them.

Charles Olney: Okay, so related question: who do you think has the best chance of beating them? And what do you think is the right way to play them?

RJ Allen: Utah. I think Riley and Harvey play enough alike it gives NC the hardest match up. And adding Press counters the Dunn/Williams effect.

Luis Hernandez: And right now nobody executes better than the Courage. What I think about them is that they never let up.

Charles Olney: I’ll start by saying that I think Chicago’s game plan this week was pretty solid, and absolutely could have succeeded on another night. If Kerr had finished a couple of her chances, Chicago could have packed it in an protected their lead, and the storylines would be a lot different. It didn’t work out, but the ideas were good. I’d give the Red Stars at least some chance of making it stick next time.

Utah obviously has been the only team to have any real success so far, and I’ll be VERY curious to see how their third game goes.

RJ Allen: I think on a perfect night for them that Seattle could beat them. But everything has to be perfect and the last time they met it was far from it.

Charles Olney: I think that’s a good point, RJ. With every other team in the league, you can squint and see how they beat North Carolina, but they need it all to go right. If Seattle is missing Rapinoe, it gets really hard for them. If Kerr isn’t finishing, Chicago can’t do it. If Orlando doesn’t get peak Marta, they probably can’t manage it. But North Carolina could probably survive several hiccups. Mewis is out? No problem. No Hinkle? Fine. Dunn is out for a month? They’ll manage.

RJ Allen: Yup. They are like sharks teeth. Always something behind to cover.

Allison Cary: Completely agree.

Luis Hernandez: I think each of the playoff teams in the league can beat NC if they play their game and don’t fall into the Courage’s trap. The Red Stars could be more dangerous if Kerr doesn’t miss those chances. Same with Orlando, the offense didn’t click plus Sermanni hasn’t gotten the midfield right against them.

RJ Allen: I think Orlando’s defense has too many holes overall to stand up to a fully attacking NC though.

Allison Cary: I’m inclined to say Utah, but that’s mainly based off of past games. I think any team CAN do it, but like Luis said it’s about execution. Obviously catching NC on an “off” day would be helpful. If they even have those.

Luis Hernandez: I’m also leaning towards Utah since they were about to be successful against them but once again the Royals are as flawed as the rest of the pack. The team that faces North Carolina is going to have to take an “any given Sunday” approach.

RJ Allen: The Royals are flawed but to beat NC you have to fight fire with fire. And Harvey is all fire.

Charles Olney: To my eyes, the only real true weakness with North Carolina is against teams who can work through the initial press and get enough space in the middle to pick out a long pass. Chicago was doing that very well, but ANY of the playoff contenders could conceivably do it. But that’s not how a lot of them want to play, so it’s tough.

RJ Allen: Can, yes. Will, so far not really.

Charles Olney: So, speaking of NC’s competitors…how is everyone feeling about the playoff race? Things are still very tight, and it looks like it should be a lot of fun right through to the end.

RJ Allen: I think it’s going to come down, 2 or maybe all 3 of the spots left, to the last week or so. And that is great for the league I think.

Allison Cary: I agree. Seattle, Orlando, Chicago, Utah, and Portland are all so tight. And Houston isn’t too far back. I think it’s going to be an exciting finish.

Luis Hernandez: After the NC loss, Sermanni seemed different. He said “back to the drawing board” and I believe him. He said it isn’t going to be about just starting your best 11 players but the best 11 players who can win a particular match. I questioned him about the lack of trading while the other teams make improvements but he seems set on this group.

Charles Olney: That will certainly be an interesting storyline to follow. And not just with Orlando. Which teams look to make real changes vs. which ones stick to the plan and just work on executing.

Luis Hernandez: I’ll buy more into Houston when the Pride play them at BBVA coming up.

RJ Allen: There is going to be at least one if not two teams out of the playoffs this year that I think could win it most other years.

Allison Cary: Yeah, even though North Carolina is dominating, once you get past them there has been some really good competition in the league.

RJ Allen: I am kind of hoping for NC vs Utah in Portland for the final just for the amusement of it.

Allison Cary: That would be fun.

Charles Olney: Which raises the important question: which would be the ideal playoff matchups to maximize the fun factor?

RJ Allen: Not Portland vs NC. Please not again.

Charles Olney: Yeah, if we could entirely avoid Portland vs. NC, I’d be a happy camper. One other obvious one: Portland vs. Seattle would be a fun semifinal matchup

RJ Allen: Utah vs Seattle and NC vs Chicago I think would be really fun.

Luis Hernandez: I don’t think Portland even makes the playoffs

Charles Olney: I think that would probably be fine for most neutral fans. Portland is a lot of fun to have in the league, but not always the most fun to actually watch, particularly when they don’t think of themselves as a flair team…which still seems to be the case.

RJ Allen: Not if their starters keep being suspended for things that should be in game red cards.

Allison Cary: I don’t really have specific match-ups I’m looking forward to. I’m just excited to see how these teams step up their game in the playoffs. And I think the matches for the week/two weeks leading up to the playoffs will be REALLY fun.

Charles Olney: Okay, since RJ brought up the Klingenberg suspension, we should talk about that for a little bit here.

RJ Allen: DISCO lives!

Charles Olney: Are people surprised that the Disciplinary Committee actually did something? Are they surprised at the length of the suspension? Do we think this is a sign that they might get involved in things more going forward? Or is it just a one-off event?

RJ Allen: Do we know who makes up the committee?

Charles Olney: We definitely do not. Folks have asked quite a few times and all anyone has ever got was ‘no comment.’ I don’t think we even know how many people there are, or what their roles are. If I remember correctly, Dan Lauletta got SOME information last year after the Tyler Lussi event, but even that was pretty sketchy.

RJ Allen: I understand not giving out all of the names but saying something like “four former players, three officials” or something would be nice. It makes it very hard to judge without it.

Charles Olney: Agreed.

Connected to the broader question of league discipline, let me just throw out my usual hobbyhorse about in-match officiating: there have been zero red cards issued this year. We are almost two-thirds of the way through the season.

To me that is just malpractice, and makes me wonder whether ANYONE in the whole hierarchy actually cares about the quality of officiating. Because it seems pretty hard to believe that they haven’t done something more serious about this than give Klingenberg a one-match ban.

RJ Allen: I would be happy with more yellows overall than worrying about reds TBH.

Charles Olney: I’m certainly on board for more yellows, too. I checked those numbers last night and it’s still the case that there are slightly more than 2 bookings a game in the NWSL. Compared to 3.5 per game in MLS, all the way up to 5 per game in some of the big European men’s leagues.

RJ Allen: What are the Euro women’s leagues?

Charles Olney: I couldn’t find those numbers easily when I wrote my column on it last year. But I should put those together and write an update.

Allison Cary: I don’t have the stats, but I feel like there weren’t a lot of cards given in the matches I went to. I don’t think I ever saw a red. Maybe a few yellows, but not a ton. That was in England and a few Champions League matches.

RJ Allen: I wish they would get the little things right as much as the cards. It feels like every game there is a huge error somewhere in the match about offside or something.

Charles Olney: I agree with that, though I can sympathize a bit more with those sort of mistakes. Officiating is hard, and sometimes even good refs get things wrong. Which isn’t to say that we shouldn’t expect more, but you can try your hardest and still fail. But the disciplinary stuff isn’t ‘hard’ in that sense. They have just decided to call things extremely loose, and don’t seem to care that it degrades the quality of the game (and puts players at risk).

As fans, I think it’s fair to focus on the mistakes that affect results more than the daily churn of loose discipline. I just don’t want that part to completely fall out of the equation.

Luis Hernandez: My first thought after I heard about Kling being only suspended one game was that the NWSL PA really needs to unionize because there’s no appealing the decision. Once the league and the players get to the point where there’s some collective bargaining. Oh boy!

RJ Allen: I don’t really think this is something that should be appealed though.

Luis Hernandez: But other than that, I think it should have been more than just one match.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I think it probably should have been a three game suspension.

Luis Hernandez: The NWSL seems to get the refs that are trying to end up officiating in MLS. I don’t like that the only refs with stats on the PRO webpage are MLS refs. Why not the ones in USL or NWSL?

Charles Olney: That’s a great point, Luis. I think they assume that MLS fans are the only ones likely to be engaged enough to care. And if I wanted to be even less charitable, I’d say that they don’t regard USL and the NWSL as being important enough to have someone spend time uploading that information.

As with most things, though, there’s a supply and demand issue here. The expectation that fans don’t want or need something means that no one can develop the habits of expecting those things. So what appears to be lack of interest is really just the system being designed from the beginning to discourage people from caring.

 

Charles Olney: Alright, enough negative stuff. Let’s turn to our final topic: what are people excited about in this weekend’s games? I’ll start by saying that I’m personally excited to finally be seeing a match live after a several month drought. I’m in Seattle visiting family and will be going to see the Reign and Dash.

RJ Allen: That is the perfect match for you.

Allison Cary: That’s fun! I’m hoping that Orlando can bounce back against the Spirit after a few bad results. I think Portland-Utah will be a good game, but it kicks off at 4:00am my time so I probably won’t be watching.

Charles Olney: I also think that Portland-Utah game should be good. I briefly considered making the trip down to Portland on Friday night to see it, but it was just too much travel time in a short trip. I would love to get back to Providence Park, though.

RJ Allen: I am excited to see if Portland and Utah will survive the match up at all or if this is how the world ends.

Luis Hernandez: I wish the Orlando City match didn’t have its start time moved because the club was having a World Cup/Orlando City watch party at the stadium (includes a ticket to the Pride match) then see Orlando beat Washington.

RJ Allen: Washington makes me sad this year.

Charles Olney: I would really like to see Washington go on a run for a few games. There’s a lot of talent there, and even with the struggles it still seems like they ought to be able to put something together.

Allison Cary: Yeah. At the beginning of the year, it seemed like defense was more of a problem. Now their defense is starting to improve, but they can’t score. They just can’t put it all together.

Charles Olney: It sure seems like the unifying trend has been problems in the midfield. And…as someone who loves central midfielders this pains me to say, but…maybe signing five very similar central mids isn’t the BEST move?

RJ Allen: Hey I have a final like yes or no question for y’all. North Carolina needs 16 points in 8 games to break Seattle’s record for most points in a season – 54 points is the current record.

They play:

  • Washington
  • Sky Blue
  • Utah
  • Portland
  • Chicago
  • Orlando
  • Seattle
  • Houston

Do they do it?

Luis Hernandez: Yes

Allison Cary: Yeah

Charles Olney: Yes, but I think it’ll be close.

RJ Allen: I think draws leave them at 54 points, and a tie for the record.

Backline Chat: Press Trade 2.0 and Some Goalkeeper Talk

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Alright, first things first: the big trade finally went down this week, sending Christen Press and Sam Johnson to Utah, Sofia Huerta and Taylor Comeau to Houston, and Brooke Elby (plus approximately 13 draft picks) to Chicago. What do people think about the deal? Winners, losers? Things that make you excited?

I’ll start by saying that I think this is basically a win-win-win. Utah probably came out the best, but I think it helped everyone.

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I have said it all week but I am really looking forward to seeing Press play with ARod. They are so different from each other it’s unlikely they will step on each other’s cleats and that will be fun to see them complement each other instead of both having to change what they are best at.

Blasian (@BlasianSays): Whether it helps Huerta is a question. It was just her first game of course, but she isn’t playing as a fullback.

Charles Olney: As I think I’ve made clear in numerous forums here, Press is one of my all-time favorite players to watch. And ARod isn’t far behind. So I wholeheartedly agree, RJ.

RJ Allen: I understand wanting a shot at the national team. But is a shot at the national team both worth 1) changing your position to someone you are bad at 2) making your club career suffer in the meantime

Blasian: I’m with you, Charles. She’s the biggest winner of the players involved. This is fully on Jill Ellis, by the way.

Charles Olney: I do think the Huerta thing is weird. The reporting from John Hallorhan makes clear that this trade was engineered to get her a chance at fullback, except Houston doesn’t seem to want to play her there. I feel bad for her, and it’s another sign that communication in trades (especially involving Chicago and Houston) isn’t the greatest.

I feel bad for Huerta, obviously. At the same time, I feel like the fullback thing had mostly run its course by now. She hasn’t been getting any better in the role, and I’m not sure more time was really going to change that.

RJ Allen: Honestly is any team in the league going to be willing to play Huerta at outside back that has over 14 points right now?

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown):I said it earlier the big losers of the trade are the teams not in the trade, mostly Orlando and Portland. I’m not sure Utah can hold on to make the playoffs but the move goes a long way in that direction in the short term

Charles Olney: I think Huerta would make a perfectly good (maybe even great) wingback. But I just haven’t seen anything in her play so far to suggest that she’s really taken to the fullback role.

Becky Schoenecker(@Beckster20): I still think there are too many players better ahead of her to really make it a solid case.

Charles Olney: I was a skeptic about Utah going into the season–thought they’d be fine, but not great–but they’ve already beat my expectations AND just added the piece they were desperately missing. I’m not sure I’d BET on them to make the playoffs now, but I certainly wouldn’t be against it.

RJ Allen: They have one of the two best defenses in the league. I will never stop talking about how happy seeing Corsie and Sauerbrunn together makes me. They are truly a best of league paring.

Charles Olney: To get Press without having to sacrifice almost any present value is a huge coup. They’ll miss Elby, but not that badly. I still think they’re midfield is only so-so, but they’re very good everywhere else.

RJ Allen: You can’t have everything all at once always.

Charles Olney: True. Even North Carolina finally lost!

RJ Allen: At the last possible second.

 

Charles Olney: Alright, jumping slightly off the conversation about the trade: we’ve already seen one of these teams in action. Last night, Houston lost at home to Portland. Thoughts about the game? Thoughts about what it tells us about these teams going forward?

RJ Allen: What fountain of youth has Sinclair found and will she share it? Because she is having herself a season that I don’t think maybe predicted.

Blasian: If she could slip Becky Sauerbrunn a little before the World Cup, that’d be cool.

Becky Schoenecker: Houston has wonderful moments, and I think they’re getting better, but their defense and goalkeeping has been more than just a little rough.

Charles Olney: Portland once again seem poised to break out from a slow start and really kick things into gear. I still don’t think they’re fully loaded, but this was a more composed performance from them, for sure.

Becky Schoenecker: I just don’t understand the decision making on the backline most times (ie Van Wyk). For every goal saving play she has three where she gets flat out beat.

Charles Olney: For Houston, I thought it was one of the more coherent performances they’ve had for the season. Sure, the result didn’t work out. But they played pretty well on the whole. In a season where they’ve had a lot go right despite poor performances, this felt a bit like reversion to the mean. But I agree with Becky that Van Wyk had a dreadful game. We talked last week about whether Pauw would be willing to bench her. I think the case for that move was pretty clear last night.

RJ Allen: Bench her and move who to her spot? Brooks?

Charles Olney: In her postgame comments, Pauw said that Polkinghorne isn’t really match fit yet, and my impression is that once she’s fully ready to go, she slots into the backline. That said, I really liked how Houston looked in that 4-1-4-1. Polks did a nice job occupying the space between the two lines, and provided some of the shield that Houston has been missing all year.

Becky Schoenecker: What about Campbell?

RJ Allen: She frustrates me. Campbell that is. Because you can see how much talent she has but she makes some really odd choices and she needs more coaching that doesn’t look like it’s happening.

Charles Olney: I have no issues with Campbell. She made a bad mistake on the Sinclair goal, and didn’t exactly cover herself with glory elsewhere. But she’s a perfectly good keeper now, and still has a lot of room for improvement.

Luis Hernandez: To me, both teams looked better than what they had early in the season. Houston has come a long way but Campbell just isn’t helping her cause in the national team picture nor with the Dash. Teams seem to be scoring on her from easy chances that she needs to do better on.

Blasian: I know it makes sense for non-Naeher and Harris goalkeepers to get NT call-ups, but it doesn’t seem to me that she’s earned it.

Becky Schoenecker: Do you think it’s a lack of confidence at this point? She’s a capable goalkeeper, but compared to the other keepers in the league she’s sliding fast.

RJ Allen: I think it’s coaching.

Charles Olney: Keepers just have so few chances to make a difference that the noise can easily drown out the signal. It could easily just be a normal bad stretch and not really signify much of anything. I’d wait a lot longer to decide that there’s something fundamentally wrong.

Luis Hernandez: Portland is seeming to be getting healthier than they have been in a while and that was the performance they needed on the road to keep their playoff hopes alive, so they can defend their championship.

RJ Allen: You also hate goalkeepers, Charles.

Blasian: I could see it if it’s just in her decision-making, but to allow a goal like Portland’s third seems to just be about fundamentals

Luis Hernandez: Sinc is just amazing with what she’s been able to do, and now she’s got everyone else around her contributing so that’s going to make Portland dangerous going forward. The Thorns just need to keep pace with the rest of the pace and overtake one of those teams ahead of them in the standings.

RJ Allen: I think Campbell coming right out of college and starting so quickly was an issue.

Becky Schoenecker: To me that’s a defeating goal, she was already making questionable decisions, but I think the next game will be huge for her. If she’s able to recover and make some good saves it might start an upward swing and get her confidence back.

RJ Allen: She didn’t have time to warm in to the league and steps were missed in the move between college and the pros. She has to go back to basics and no coach seemingly is taking her there.

Becky Schoenecker: And you’re right, coming out of college I doubt Houston – and a lot of these teams – have quality goalkeeping coaches. How can anyone expect to get better if it’s just shooting practice with an assistant.

Blasian: That next game is @ Orlando…not an attack I’d want to face in that scenario

RJ Allen: No. Marta, Morgan, Syd and Hill can eat people alive in they want.

Charles Olney: Speaking of goalkeepers and the US pool, anyone have thoughts on Adi Franch’s return?

RJ Allen: Becky is right. Goalkeeping coaches are lacking league wide with very few exceptions.

Becky Schoenecker: I’m not looking for her to get Houston a win, just for her not to make it so easy for them to lose.

RJ Allen: Welcome back. She is one of my favorites in the league even if she’s good for a WTF now and then.

Becky Schoenecker: People are so quick to blame goalies, but no resources are set aside to improve them.

Luis Hernandez: To me, Franch needs more performances this season to be seriously considered back into the WNT picture.

RJ Allen: Let’s be real though. NWSL play has very little to do with who gets called up *after* Ellis has put them on her radar.

Becky Schoenecker: I agree, but I think she can get there her improvement from last year to this year has been amazing to see (and crazy enough wasn’t Angerer coaching her?)

Luis Hernandez: But I’d put AD ahead of Campbell for sure. I think we should just turn the page on Campbell for a while.

RJ Allen: I would say that good NWSL play can get you on her radar but after? It has almost no connection.

Charles Olney: She had one or two scary moments trying to play the ball with her feet, but I thought was otherwise pretty solid. Portland have to be happy to have her back. Eckerstrom provided some nice cover, but is clearly a step below the top keepers in the league.

Luis Hernandez: I’d like to see Bledsoe get a camp call-up

Becky Schoenecker: Yes to Bledsoe

RJ Allen: I would be happy with a Naeher, Bledsoe, Smith camp.

Blasian: I am not as high on Bledsoe as y’all are.

Luis Hernandez: She occasionally makes a bonehead decision but is mostly solid.

RJ Allen: The goalkeeper pool is as deep as a thimble long term right now.

Luis Hernandez: I’d like to Bledsoe over Smith

Charles Olney: I don’t really know her game at all, and maybe it’s just a case of the grass always being greener, but I’m certainly curious about what Casey Murphy can do.

Becky Schoenecker: Well with the number of times she’s forced to see the ball I can understand that haha

RJ Allen: Casey Murphy I doubt gets a real shot until she is state side.

Blasian: Within the Spirit team, I think we might be having this conversation about Kelsey Wys had she not thrown away the title and then got injured in Australia.

Luis Hernandez: Murphy has a problem being under the radar. Who’s really watching her matches and is she convincing enough to break into the team?

RJ Allen: There are NWSL players who should have gone up 2 or 3 years ago than Ellis just won’t call up. I do wonder at what point either they get calls up or we (media types) just move on from them.

Charles Olney: [Cough] Colaprico and DiBernardo [Cough]

Blasian: Absolutely, both of them.

RJ Allen: But would Ellis know how to use them if she had them? What good is having Colaprico on the bench?

Blasian: She doesn’t know how to use most of her current players

Charles Olney: I do think that we often fixate too much on these marginal decisions. I’m the biggest DiBernardo fan you’ll find, but even I don’t think she’s a starter or anything. Same with Colaprico. Could be a nice bench player, but it’s not likely to make a huge difference either way.

I will say, though, that DiBernardo is precisely the TYPE of player that the US needs. Whether she’s quite at the level needed to make that sort of player useful is a fair question. But Ellis could certainly make it work, even given her tactical limitations.

Luis Hernandez: I’m just waiting for Ellis to be out of the picture. I’d like to think the federation is looking for the women’s general manager, but I doubt it.

RJ Allen: 2021 for sure the USWNT has a new coach. And Ellis as the GM because this timeline sucks. They have said they are looking for a GM. The problem is it will be someone Ellis approves of or advises them on.

Luis Hernandez: I know I’m beating a dead horse when I say this but at this point the only evaluation for a player on the WNT is “can this player win us a World Cup?” If the answer is anything but yes, then move on.

Blasian: Spain’s men’s team has shown it’s never too late to change managers.

RJ Allen: I am pretty happy about Zerboni coming up, TBH. I thin the US leaning in to the “punch the other team in the mouth” thing she and Horan can pull off is at least fun.

Luis Hernandez: I agree with RJ here. That’s the value of having USSF backing the NWSL

Charles Olney: Alright: final question. We’ve got a few games coming up this afternoon. What are people looking forward to?

RJ Allen: Seattle vs North Carolina should be a hoot.

Luis Hernandez: I’m looking forward to the Courage’s response to the loss last week

RJ Allen: And even if Press isn’t playing I think Utah vs Chicago will be something to keep an eye on.

Blasian: I’m staying up for the 1 am Spirit kickoff to experience the sadness live.

Luis Hernandez: The Pride attack if they all show up. And I think the best match this week is going to be Red Stars/Royals. I also want to say that Dani Weatherholt who is going to miss this week’s game should be considered for the national team and is extremely underrated.

Becky Schoenecker: I’m excited for the Chicago Utah game.

Charles Olney: I agree with folks hyping Chicago-Utah. Has a lot of potential to be a super interesting game, and also is a HUGE match for its playoff implications

RJ Allen: Can I bring up one thing unrelated to the games today that I really love? I am really loving seeing players – a lot of USWNT players but also NWSL players – using #MensWorldCup as a hashtag.

Becky Schoenecker: That’s great!

RJ Allen: There are two World Cups. A men’s and a women’s. Only using a gender term with one is silly. Either both are just the World Cup with the year, or it’s men’s and women’s. I don’t make the rules, I just enforce them.

Backline Chat: USWNT Friendlies, the Men’s World Cup, and Back to the NWSL

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Alright, welcome to our slack chat for this week. Today we’re going to start with the US national team, who just finished up a pair of friendlies against China. How do people think it went?

For what it’s worth, my general takeaway is: the US still isn’t playing great, but two more wins against solid competition sure sounds a lot better than two draws or two losses.

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I think it’s harder to say than people might want it to be because of who was out for the US. Not having maybe 5 starters/starters coming back from being hurt really makes it muddy as to what are really issues. I will say it does show how poor Ellis can be at game planning though.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): Yeah, I thought they were lucky to get the win yesterday. But they did get the win, so I guess that counts for something.

Charles Olney: Why do you say lucky to get the win, Allison? Because of the save from Harris, or a more general comment?

Allison Cary: It wasn’t far off from being a draw. I guess that was more my point. Both with China equalizing in the second half and nearly equalizing again had Harris not made that save.

Charles Olney: To my eyes, they were totally dominant in the first half, and should have had a two-goal margin (I think Ertz’s goal was onside). They struggled more in the second half, for sure. I’d say it was a pretty classic USWNT performance–good enough for the win, but not a whole lot more.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I think they generally looked like the better side in the first half. But then not finishing those chances… I mean, it doesn’t mean much to say I thought they played better if they can’t score.

(This coming from a bitter France fan).

RJ Allen: How much is “totally dominant” worth when they weren’t on the scoreboard though? I agree the US was the better side – though maybe by not as much as you do – but for most of the time it was a 1 goal or draw game.

Charles Olney: Well, like I said I think they should have been up 2-0. But this does sort of get at the larger question I wanted to ask.

I spent some time on twitter this week hyping up the US. Now admittedly that’s partly just me making the argument for the sake of making the argument, but I do think that expectations are sometimes set a little too high. So let me ask it this way: who do you think are favorites to win the World Cup?

Allison Cary: I think England is in a good position to go far.

RJ Allen: Right now my top 4 are US, England, Aussies and France.

Allison Cary: I’m a bit surprised by France, but otherwise I agree.

RJ Allen: They are at home. That gives them a boost for me.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I think they’ve hurt me too many times for me to have faith. But I hope you’re right.

Charles Olney: I think that’s a fair top 4. And I’d have a hard time drawing a clear line between those, or to exclude Germany, the Netherlands, etc. Which I think really just shows that things are pretty close at the top of the game right now. But all things being equal, it’s hard for me to say that anyone is in a MORE favorable position than the US.

Which isn’t to say that there isn’t plenty of reasons for concern about the US. But I think people need to calibrate their expectations. This is a good team, quite possibly the favorite, even accounting for their limitations.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): I’m okay with the WNT performance. Championship caliber teams find ways to win. Was it ideal? Not even close but I think there’s a lot to take away and hopefully Jill improves the squad. I was also happy to see the team get tested in a friendly. I think the team is in good position heading into the World Cup. Favored but not a favorite.

RJ Allen: The US has a lot of champagne problems and one or two big ones. The problem is people confusing the two.

Charles Olney: So let’s dial in a little before we move on. What do you see as the big problems?

RJ Allen: Morgan vs Press vs (Insert forward of your choice here) is not a real problem.

Charles Olney: I agree that the forwards just aren’t a ‘problem’ in any meaningful sense of the term. Whoever is in form this time next year is going to be one of the best strikers in the world. If it’s Morgan, great. If it’s Press, awesome. If it’s Pugh and Rapinoe, wonderful. If it’s Amy Rodriguez, amazing.

Alanna Fairbairn (@jfhobbit): I see the lack of defensive depth as being the biggest problem.

RJ Allen: I think the outside back area and maybe center midfield are the biggest problems right now. The outside backs are all hurt so Ellis is using players there that she shouldn’t and not calling up those she should. And center midfield just feels like a lack of something. An ill-fitting connection might be the best way to put it.

Charles Olney: I’d say the US’s biggest problem over the past few years has been sorting out the midfield, but would say that the issues are starting to shift backward a bit. Mostly because I’ve decided to just accept that the US isn’t going to get the sort of midfield play that I really want from them. And in that case, the group of Mewis, Ertz, Brian, Zerboni, etc. is going to ensure that we make it difficult for the other team, even if we don’t necessarily generate a ton through the center either. But that puts a lot on the fullbacks, so that really feels like the crisis point

RJ Allen: I think it was Kim McCauley who said on Twitter – maybe joking – the US should lean in the being assholes on the pitch and I’m not sure she is wrong. The US has players who can dominate and sometimes I really think they shy away from that for some reason that doesn’t benefit the team. Horan, Zerboni, O’Hara and even Morgan – among others – have the talent and the style about them that can bend teams to their will a lot more than they sometimes do.

Charles Olney: It’s a strange place for the team, which was supposedly spending the past few years developing and improving technically. We haven’t really seen much in the way of results there. But I sometimes wonder if that was just a big waste of time to even discuss.

RJ Allen: You really want to throw a team off? Like Horan, Zerboni, O’Hara and Morgan make them pay – within the laws of the game – and a lot of teams would get rattled. They half do it anyway.

Charles Olney: One final comment I’ll throw out is that I thought the second game showed a (relatively rare) example of Ellis tweaking things slightly to get good results. The setup in the first half wasn’t all that different from the previous game, but the midfield pinching in aggressively forced China to stay compact, and then Dunn on the left and Press on the right had tons of space to work. And it was pretty successful!

I think that’s a big thing to watch going forward. Now that we’re actually getting close to real games, will Ellis the tinkerer be able to plug a few holes here and there, even if she’s never going to fundamentally outwit anyone tactically.

RJ Allen: Ellis is a fine coach. She is fine. Like dry toast. She isn’t your favorite and she isn’t horrible.

Charles Olney: I’d say that’s fair.

Allison Cary: “Like dry toast” is honestly just the best comparison.

Luis Hernandex: I’m not fond of the tactics the WNT employs at times and I put that on the coach. To me that’s the biggest problem. I’m just convinced Jill is gone after the World Cup. I’d also like the US to better develop fullbacks. I’d also like to see us develop a true number 10. So yeah youth development? Even though we just had the U-17 win the CONCACAF tournament.

Charles Olney: Alright, so we can set the national team aside for a bit. They won’t be back until the Tournament of Nations, and we can devote our attention elsewhere. Mostly to the NWSL, but there’s also another big event going on this summer that I think we should touch on at least for a moment here: the men’s World Cup.

It’s the biggest event in world sports, and while we focus on women’s soccer, obviously, I’m guessing that some of us will have at least an eye on it.

So: who will be watching?

Alanna Fairbairn: I will be, when I’m not out of town and easy streaming range. I’m nominally rooting for Iceland because I love a good underdog story

RJ Allen: I would like Iceland to win because their men’s and women’s coaches help each out during majors and I think that’s the coolest thing.

Allison Cary: I’m excited about it. Especially being in England, and London specifically. It’ll be really cool to see how the people here get into it.

Charles Olney: For myself, it’s going to be a strange experience. I think I watched 90% or more of the games in the last four cups, but I’m pretty much checking out of this one. I’m just beyond sick of FIFA’s corruption, and while the Qatar cup is the true moral travesty, Russia is hardly a great place to plant your flag, either. So I’m going to grudgingly watch a few matches here and there, but mostly trying to just let it slide past.

I’ll certainly watch the Mexico games, and root for them.

And I’ll be hoping for Messi to get the title he deserves, so we can finally put to rest all the ‘you can’t be the GOAT without a title’ talk.

RJ Allen: Is Messi the short one or the tall one?

Charles Olney: The short one.

RJ Allen: I am putting a moral pox on him until that federation gives anything approximating a damn about their women’s team. You shouldn’t be able to enter the men’s world cup if you don’t have or fund well your women’s team.

Alanna Fairbairn: That would be a interesting political squabble to watch, if FIFA started requiring that.

Charles Olney: I’d support it. It’s a drop in the bucket. They could all pay it.

Luis Hernandez: I’m going to watch every men’s World Cup match. I have my bracket filled out. Just looking forward to seeing good soccer. Not having a horse in the race, I have Germany winning it again going back to back. I can’t root for Mexico.

Charles Olney: Alright, one final question about the boys side of things: any thoughts about the announcement that the joint bid will be hosting the 2026 cup? Will that have any effect on the women’s side of things?

Alanna Fairbairn: I would hope the main effect is an uptick in good soccer stadiums to play in. As well as general sport visibility

Allison Cary: If it really grows support for the game in the U.S the way people think it will, it’s possible we could also carry some of those fans over into the women’s game. But that may be wishful thinking.

RJ Allen: I do think one thing that might change is a few teams that play in football/soccer places might end up getting new places to play.

Charles Olney: In general, I’m a proponent of ‘the rising tide lifts all boats’ theory, so more interest in the game overall will be good. But I’m also a believer in ‘people won’t put resources toward the women’s game unless you hold their feet to the fire, and maybe not even then’ so the effect might not be nearly as big as we’d hope.

Alanna Fairbairn: I would hope that USSF does some PR around the women’s team. Like when the did they One Nation, One Team bit around the 2015 Women’s World Cup to bring people in. Actively go for more fan crossover.

Charles Olney: I hope so, too, but wouldn’t hold my breath for it.

Luis Hernandez: I’m hoping to live to see the World Cup in 2026. Kidding. Kinda. I hope it grows the game even more for the nation and allow our host partners to give us a pass politically. Plus can we also host the Women’s World Cup now? Please.

RJ Allen: We’ve hosted it twice. I don’t think the US should until at least after 2027. I’d love England to get a WWC.

Alanna Fairbairn: That would be brilliant. Way better summer climate too

Allison Cary: That would be fun.

Charles Olney: Okay, final topic: the NWSL will be starting back up again this weekend. Any games that have people particularly excited? Any storylines you’re watching for?

Alanna Fairbairn: So for this weekend, I will be interested to see who of the internationals come back from their break hyped and ready to go, and who comes back exhausted and needing a rest

I noticed that even Megan Rapinoe on her Instagram story was mentioning how stinking long the US camp was this go around.

Charles Olney: I’d say the most important game of the weekend is Chicago-Portland. Both teams will REALLY want a win there, given their struggles so far.

Allison Cary: Yeah, that could be a really defining match if either team can walk away with three points (Portland and Chicago).

RJ Allen: I think Portland is the better team but that doesn’t mean they win.

Charles Olney: I’m certainly curious about when and if Chicago starts to get some of their players back. DiBernardo and Short are supposedly close. Morgan Brian is back in the States and they still have her rights. If they could add those three players in the next week or two, that could make a HUGE difference.

Or it could disrupt the things that were just starting to gel.

Either way, it should be very interesting to follow.

Alanna Fairbairn: I think if DiBernardo is still out, Brian could be an interesting addition to the midfield. She’s at least healthy and well rested now. But it depends on if she decides to stay or requests somewhere else.

Charles Olney: My read on her performance for the NT is that whatever ‘injuries’ she had in France were more a matter of minor setbacks than anything serious. She didn’t look more ready than she did back in April, but didn’t look worse, either. I wouldn’t want to count on her yet, but it could be a big addition if they work it carefully.

RJ Allen: Morgan Brian holds very little possibility for me until she proves she can be healthy long term. See also Lavelle, Rose.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I don’t know that I’d expect to see Brian right away. And I agree with RJ: the injuries thing is critical.

Alanna Fairbairn: And possibly Pugh on that list too, with the injury she picked up in camp

Charles Olney: On a similar note, Julie Ertz still doesn’t look 100% to me, and I’m curious how long it will taker her to get completely right. That could be another huge question for them. Basically: Chicago could be one of the best teams in the league or a continuing disaster over the next month. We have no idea!

Allison Cary: Yep.

Charles Olney: Thoughts about Orlando-Sky Blue? Obviously Orlando are favorites, but Sky Blue has looked a LITTLE bit better. And they have to win at some point. Is it this weekend? And what are they going to do with Carli Lloyd?

Alanna Fairbairn: Rest her and put her in as a super sub. It is time for Lloyd to go the way of Wambach; if she refuses to leave, cut her minutes and give her a chance at the end of the game to add a tally or two to her record.

RJ Allen: They will lose and Reddy will say it is bad luck.

Charles Olney: I have a sneaking suspicion that they pull this one out, but RJ’s clear-eyed cynicism is probably more accurate than my sneaking suspicion.

RJ Allen: You also thought North Carolina were going to get the L in Houston. And while it was a draw it was not a win for H-Town.

Charles Olney: They were so close though!

RJ Allen: Close only counts in hand grenades and horseshoes.

Allison Cary: To be fair, I thought there was a chance Houston might win that match. But I don’t think Sky Blue get the win here. Maybe a draw, if the Pride are having an off day (which is entirely possible).

Alanna Fairbairn: Thus why I’m excited that Houston got Polkinghorne, so she can hopefully help to plug up the defensive holes. And they can maybe defend for longer than 75 minutes a match

RJ Allen: With Polkinghorne in, Brooks to the midfield?

Alanna Fairbairn: Maybe? Or possibly Polkinghorne could be a partner for Chapman on the outside

Charles Olney: I’m certainly curious to see how that affects their backline. I’m a known Van Wyk critic (though I think she’s improved a lot of late), so I’d start to phase her out a bit. But I’ve learned to not try to anticipate what Vera Pauw will do.

Alanna Fairbairn: I do think Brooks to a holding midfield spot is also a possibility. Simply because they just lost Mewis, and they need someone to hold it down in the midfield so Daly and Ohai can do what they do

Charles Olney: I think whatever happens will be an interesting indicator of how Pauw ultimately sees the team. They could play all three of their center backs and get a more solid backline, but sacrifice some attacking potential. Is that a trade Pauw wants to make? Or move Brooks up? I have a hard time seeing them keep the juggling act alive without a stronger support structure in the central midfield, but I’ve been wrong so far.

Luis Hernandez: With the two year anniversary of the Pulse nightclub shooting on the 12th and the club having Pride night with a fundraiser to LGBT charities, I’ll be looking forward to the Orlando/SB match. It should boost everything for the Pride and hopefully the attendance number will not disappoint. I’m also looking forward to the first NWSL match on ESPN News.

Backline Chat: NWSL Buy/Sell/Hold and the China Friendlies

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Let’s start things off with a quick round of discussion about the national team friendlies coming up against China. What do people expect from these games? Is there anything in particular you’ll be watching for?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I want Ellis to sit Morgan and Sauerbrunn and co. We know what they can do and we know what they are both good and bad at. I want to see what the other less experienced players are good and bad at. I am pretty sure I am not going to get what I want.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): Agreed. I’d like to see Crystal Dunn get some time, since she’s been great for the Courage so far this season. I’d also like to see some experimentation, particularly on defense. But like RJ said, I don’t really expect to get that. Also please don’t break Rose Lavelle.

Charles Olney: Given that Midge Purce is now out, do we think there’s any chance Dunn plays a more forward role? Or is she definitely going to stick at fullback for both games?

RJ Allen: No. I think they need her in the back or it is going to be basically giving up the wings. Mathias is a very good outside back. For Paul Riley. I don’t know if Ellis can bring that level out in her.

Charles Olney: I’m certainly skeptical of Mathias, though I don’t mind them giving her a look. We’ve seen a lot of players excel when surrounded by the rest of the NC lineup, who don’t necessarily translate that to other environments. But they’re playing a fairly weak China team, so this sure seems like a decent place to test her out.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I agree with both of those statements. I’d like to see her get a chance.

RJ Allen: I think the US is too scared to not win these matches by a few goals. I don’t like it, but that’s what it looks like and has for 20 years.

Allison Cary: Yeah. Ellis has shown in the past that she’s not really willing to use these games to try something new, so I’m not sure why we would expect more out of her now.

RJ Allen: The last coach who tried as fired for it.

Charles Olney: Speaking of Lavelle, my hot take when the news came that she’d joined the roster was: don’t worry, she won’t play, this is mostly just for assessment. Am I being overly optimistic? Do y’all think she actually sees more than a few minutes?

RJ Allen: Yes. Yes you are. I think she might start the second game or be a 45 minute sub.

Allison Cary: I honestly don’t know. So I’ll defer to RJ on this one.

Charles Olney: Let’s make it a mini-bet. If she plays under 30 minutes, you owe me a beer at the championship. Over 45, I owe you a cider. In between and we’ll call it a draw.

RJ Allen: I will take that bet. I do seriously wonder if Ellis thinks of a lot of the young players as just expendable though.

Becky Schoenecker(@Beckster20): I’m with @olneyce on that bet.

Charles Olney: Any final thoughts on this topic?

RJ Allen: I really hope Naeher doesn’t play all 180 minutes.

Allison Cary: I second that.

Charles Olney: Third. Even as someone who generally is more accepting of ‘give Naeher a lot of time.’

Allison Cary: I think Naeher is the best keeper in that group, but I also think its important for other players to get time. We know Naeher is good. Give someone else a chance.

Charles Olney: Alright, let’s turn to the main topic for today. A round of ‘buy/sell/hold’ for the NWSL teams. Basically: given where the team is sitting today, do you expect them to go up, stay about the same, or fade away by the end of the season.

Let’s start at the top with the North Carolina Courage. They’re in first place with a 12 point buffer. Can they possibly get better? Or will they inevitably fade a bit? Buy, sell, or hold?

RJ Allen: It has to be hold, right? They can’t go any higher than dropping just 6 points in 12 matches.

Becky Schoenecker: They’re going to be just as strong, I don’t see them fading unless you consider giving a player a bit of a break and using some usual subs as starters near the end.

Charles Olney: I’m tempted to offer a hot take that they’ll get even better, but…yeah, I think hold is probably fair. They’ll probably lose a game at some point, but I don’t see anyone making it competitive for the Shield

Allison Cary: Yeah. I don’t really see them fading.

Becky Schoenecker: Who do you see beating them?

RJ Allen: Themselves. That’s the only team good enough.

Charles Olney: I really thought Houston was going to get it done this weekend, but frankly the draw was probably fair. And that was with like 70% of the NC squad off the pitch. They’re very very good.

RJ Allen: Are they better than the 2014 Seattle Reign?

Charles Olney: I think I’d take the Reign by a hair, but I do sort of think this NC team might be better at disrupting the Reign than the Reign would be at carving them up. If they can keep playing this well all season, I think they’ll have a strong case for the best single season performance in the league to date. They’re just so relentless and can rip you apart so quickly. Those six minutes or so against Portland last week were incredibly impressive.

Becky Schoenecker: I would take NC over 2014 Reign, but it would be a hell of a game.

Charles Olney: Speaking of the Reign, in second place are the Seattle Reign, sitting on 18 points, and with a game (or two) in hand over most other teams in the playoff hunt. Are they punching above their weight, or can they sustain as the #2 team in the league?

Becky Schoenecker: I see them dropping, but still making playoffs.

RJ Allen: I think Seattle ends up second or third. So mostly a hold.

Allison Cary: Admittedly, I’ve missed a lot of the Reign’s games due to the time difference. But I think they stay in #2. Maybe slip down to third. But I think they keep it close.

Charles Olney: I’m tempted to buy on Seattle, because I’m a big believer in Vlatko, and I think things will start to gel even more. But results so far have gone of gone in the opposite direction–with great performances right at the start, and uglier ones (though still with some solid results) in the last month. So I’ll stick with hold. If I had to bet, I’d stay with them to get a home playoff game. But I think it’ll be close either way.

Alright, third place: the Orlando Pride, on 16 points. In many ways it seems like they still haven’t quite found their feet. Are people optimistic that they’ll kick on the afterburners again like they did last year?

Allison Cary: The Pride are there own worst enemy. I honestly can’t predict what will happen to them this season. They could get better– there is a ton of room for improvement on that squad, considering the talent they have. But they could also fall off the deep end.

RJ Allen: I think sell. I really think things are going to come off the bus with a midfield that weak.

Charles Olney: I’ll say sell. Not because I think they’re bad, but just that they’re at the most risk of a minor injury disrupting their season, because they’re quite bare in a few spots. Basically: what RJ said.

Becky Schoenecker: They have some great moments and a pretty good roster, but I’m selling.

Allison Cary: I agree about the injury thing, especially on defense. They have big name players, but they’ve been completely unable to perform. I still stand by what I said at the beginning of the season: I think they’ll be right on the edge of the playoffs. Probably 4th or 5th, although I could see more of a range if the table stays this tight.

RJ Allen: I think 5th is where they end up. Krieger being out is a big blow.

Charles Olney: It would not surprise me in the least if they reel off four or five straight wins and race ahead of the competition. But I could also see things falling apart a bit. That said, I do think that Sermanni is a really underrated coach. Not that people think he’s bad, but a lot of the stuff he does goes under the radar. So I’m going to stick with ‘sell’ but I think I’d still bet on them to squeak over the line into the playoffs.

RJ Allen: He is good at some things for sure. But I do not trust that midfield.

Charles Olney: Fourth place are the defending champs: the Portland Thorns. It’s been a bit of a rocky road this year, but they’re currently in a playoff position, albeit by the skin of their teeth. Buy, sell, hold?

RJ Allen: Sell.

Charles Olney: Mmmm, I’ll say buy. What’s your argument?

RJ Allen: I don’t know what is going on in Thornland but I feel like something is going really wrong there. It’s like Parsons has lost the plot.

Charles Olney: Things have definitely felt a little scattered, but I think they’ve been coming together a lot. The game against North Carolina was a nightmare, but I thought Portland actually played pretty well. They just ran into a brick wall.

Becky Schoenecker: I think they make the playoffs, but just barely. In saying that I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost a lot of games they shouldn’t and just miss it. Overall though if they have to get a win in the end to get a spot I think they’ll pull it through, but only at the last minute.

RJ Allen: I don’t like Portland’s style of play so I might be more harsh on them for it.

Allison Cary: I think they have some really magical moments, but I don’t think it’s enough to lift them up. Like the Pride, I see them probably at either 4th or 5th. If they make the playoffs, I’d say just barely.

Becky Schoenecker: I think if it came down to the Thorns vs anyone else to get the playoff spot though they make it over almost anyone else.

RJ Allen: Points are a funny thing, though.

Charles Olney: To some extent, I look down the roster and find it hard to justify to myself why they wouldn’t make the playoffs. Then again, we’ve seen Portland struggle to put it all together even with a great roster before. In the end, I think talent wins and they find a way to grind out the results they need. But I find it hard to argue with any of the doubters here.

RJ Allen: One of their best rosters ever got them 5th. I can see it happening again.

Charles Olney: For all these teams in the 2-6 range, you kind of have to ask yourself: how are they going to respond in the final two weeks if they’re scrapping for a playoff spot? I see Portland as the best equipped to bulldoze through people if that’s what it takes.

Allison Cary: I agree with that. Especially over someone like Orlando. Or Utah, if they worked their way up.

Charles Olney: Fifth place are the Chicago Red Stars. I wrote a pretty long piece documenting some of their struggles, which also acknowledged some reasons to expect improvement. I’m curious where others fall. Will Chicago be in the playoffs in September?

RJ Allen: Sell. Any team that keeps Sam Kerr from doing what she does best and she has to break the plan to be Kerr, should be sold.

Becky Schoenecker: I want to believe they will be, but if it was between Thorns and Red Stars I’d have to go with Thorns pulling it out.

Charles Olney: I really want to convince myself to buy here. Kerr is coming into form, DiBernardo is coming back, and is going to be huge. Short is coming back and is going to solidify things. Ertz will round back into form. I could go on. But…I just can’t make myself believe it. I think they’ll hang around the whole season, but end up on the outside looking in. So I guess that’s a hold.

RJ Allen: I think Dames has not adapted to his new team in anyway. It’s like he still thinks it’s 2015 with what he is doing.

Allison Cary: Yeah. I don’t know. I mean, Kerr has three goals in her last two games. Like you said, DiBernardo and Short coming back, and Ertz getting back into form. But I’m not sure.

Charles Olney: I already said my piece about this on twitter so won’t belabor the point here, but Dames’s comments about wanting this team to play like Guardiola’s Man City are…worrisome. I really hope Chicago does find a way to ease into a more possession-oriented game, and gives Kerr the support she deserves. I’m just not sure I see it happening.

RJ Allen: Yeah that isn’t Chicago at all. Did Dames ever see Kerr play before he traded for her?

Charles Olney: Sixth place are the Utah Royals. They’re sitting just behind the three teams ahead of them, and have a couple games in hand. Do people see them moving up, or have they settled about where you’d expect?

Allison Cary: I don’t see them moving up.

RJ Allen: Buy, if they get Press. I think ARod finding her form, O’Hara coming back and that defense is going to help them. I think they squeeze in.

Becky Schoenecker: I’ll be optimistic and say they’ll move up – especially if they got Press, but I can see them moving up.

RJ Allen: Their defense is really, really good.

Charles Olney: I really like what Utah has done this year, and have been super impressed with Harvey. I think she’s made it clear that she really does know what she’s doing and it wasn’t just a one-time thing with that great Seattle team. That said, it’s felt to me all year like they were getting a little lucky about results. I think they could actually improve a bit and still not move up the table. So I’ll sell.

If they’re able to pick up HAO, or Press, or someone that can help them score some goals, that could be the difference-maker.

RJ Allen: They NEED someone else to help out that attack. They could really use Gibbons or Groom.

Allison Cary: I agree. But if they get Press or HAO or anyone else to help the attack, I’m still not sure I see them doing it this season. I think they could move up a slot or two, but probably not playoffs.

RJ Allen: Harvey is the trade master.

Becky Schoenecker: If the trade master can get another attacking threat I think they can make a playoff spot.

RJ Allen: Hegerberg to Utah. Either one of them.

Charles Olney: Seventh place is the Houston Dash. They were just a few minutes away from being the first team to beat North Carolina this weekend, and (astonishingly) would have moved up into the playoff spots if they’d managed it. They’ve defied pundits all season. Do you think it will continue?

RJ Allen: Hold. I don’t think they finish higher than 6. Not with Mewis out and Press refusing to play there. Unless Press is traded and they get a good deal for her.

Allison Cary: I think they’re getting better. But I also think they’re the type of team that could be devastated by one or two injuries. I think they’ll survive losing Kristie Mewis, but if Daly or Ohai gets injured, I think they’re done.

Charles Olney: I’m playing mostly to type here, but yeah I have to go with sell. The performances really have improved a ton, with three good games out of their last four. And the team spirit seems to be flying. That said, their roster is just so much weaker than everyone around them.

Allison Cary: I really like what they’re doing on both ends of the pitch right now. And I think they’ve got some good defenders, if they can find a bit more chemistry they could be really dangerous. But they have like no depth.

Charles Olney: I really hope I’m wrong. The Dash defying the odds has been my favorite story of the season so far.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I didn’t expect to find myself cheering for them at the beginning of the year. But, here I am.

Becky Schoenecker: I don’t see Houston making playoffs, but I do see them ruining some other teams days. They are a better team than I think a lot of people expected them to be and they have relentless work ethics. I’m absolutely cheering for them, but overall would say hold.

RJ Allen: They kind of bore me because of the style they have to play to win. But I get they have to play that style.

Charles Olney: I will say that, for all I have criticized Van Wyk, I think she’s been much more solid lately. That’s been helped by the formational shift giving her more protection when she steps up and misses a tackle. But she’s great in the air and is no longer a liability like I think she was at the start of the season.

RJ Allen: But is she worth the international spot?

Charles Olney: Probably not, but she’s a better use than they’re getting from some of the other spots, so…

Alright, eight place: the Washington Spirit. I don’t think anyone expected them to dominate this year, but I think many saw them being at least in the mix with the playoff teams. So far, we’ve seen very little of that. Do people think it will change? Sub-question: does Jim Gabarra last through the end of the season?

RJ Allen: I am selling them until Gabarra is gone. I think he is a bad coach.

Charles Olney: I’ve been a Gabarra-defender a lot over the years. I think he’s a strange coach, who makes a lot of indefensible decisions, but who also manages to get a lot of things right. But things really feel like they’re going off the rails at this point.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I don’t see them improving.

Charles Olney: I’ll still buy, because the roster is stacked with young talent. But I worry for them getting their heads on right.

Becky Schoenecker: They’re a much better team on paper than what they’re producing. They’re having the most shocking season to me. I keep waiting for them to connect things and they just aren’t.

RJ Allen: Church is just not a fast enough to be used the way he wants to use her. Sullivan has look bad at times. Pugh and Hatch can’t find the same page.

Charles Olney: It does astonish me that more teams don’t just sit back, wait for Washington to come at them, and then launch balls over the top. Easiest way in the league to get a one-on-one with the keeper.

Allison Cary: Kind of a separate note, but I was happy to see Tori Huster’s sister get signed as a national team replacement and I hope they get to play together on Friday.

Charles Olney: Agreed. Huster the younger feels like a victim of league contraction, so I’m glad to see her getting a spot.

So that brings us to last place: still sitting on just one point after nine games, Sky Blue. They have to improve. Right? Right?

I’m buying. This team just isn’t that bad.

Allison Cary: I feel like they’ve got too much talent on that roster NOT to get better.

RJ Allen: I am selling (to Mia Hamm).

Charles Olney: Strong move.

RJ Allen: It feels like a death of 1000 cuts. The ownership group having people in charge who don’t get it and hiring a coach without giving her support and then bringing in Lloyd and players that don’t fit together.

Becky Schoenecker: I’ve enjoyed seeing McCaskill play with them, I think she brings a lot to the table as a player

Charles Olney: Denise Reddy seems, by all accounts, to have a pretty good eye for talent, and to be a solid tactical coach. Nothing we’ve seen so far this year really confirms that but I still think she’ll turn things around.

RJ Allen: I have no faith in this team to turn it around right now. I feel for the players and the fans. But even if they win two games they are worst than even the worst Boston had to offer. With better players. (edited)

Charles Olney: But I think the example of Houston is pretty telling. It’s not like the Dash have any holding midfielders, either, but they’ve managed to at least get things stabilized in spite of that. Sky Blue are making some progress (they’ve been better in the last couple games), but it’s still a long ways off.

RJ Allen: 0-8-1 should get you fired.

Becky Schoenecker: Their backline is hard to watch, they just seem so much slower than other teams. So even with good moments one on the other end and they’re down and I don’t see them as a team that can come back, maybe have a chance of holding onto a lead, but not making up goals.

Allison Cary: I agree, RJ.

Tyler Nguyen (@tdn_): If I can just pop in here for a second: the difference between Sky Blue and Houston is that Houston has people in midfield who at least in theory can be dangerous on the ball. Sky Blue has a completely dysfunctional midfield right now. Sky Blue won’t improve until they roll the dice and put McCaskill in the middle.

RJ Allen: Which they won’t do over Lloyd.

Charles Olney: It’s worth noting, on that point, that they looked a lot more coherent this weekend. Not necessarily better, but more coherent. Janine Beckie isn’t even really a major change over Lloyd in that attacking midfield role, but at least her speed created another set of problems for the defense to think about

RJ Allen: Lloyd looks like she has given up most of the time.

Charles Olney: The big question for me about Sky Blue is whether they start making some significant changes. Whether or not Reddy’s initial plans made sense, at a certain point resignation sets in and even good ideas just aren’t going to work. You’ve got to be willing to make a change.

RJ Allen: In real sports the GM and the coach would be sacked – at the latest – at the end of the season. But it doesn’t seam like anyone wants to do that in women’s soccer, at least in the US.

Charles Olney: If this were Serie A, Sky Blue would be on the fourth manager by now.

Alright, with all that said, one final question that we’ve already talked a bit around: name the eventual playoff teams.

I’ll say North Carolina, Seattle, Portland, Orlando. With Chicago juuuust barely missing out.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. Not entirely sure of the order, but I see the current top four as the final top four.

RJ Allen: North Carolina. Seattle. Portland. Utah. Y’all convinced me to move Portland higher.

Becky Schoenecker: I’ll say North Carolina, Portland, Seattle, Utah.

Charles Olney: Well, none of us picked Chicago, so that pretty much guarantees they make it, right?

Backline Chat: USWNT Roster, Lyon, and Where Will Press Go?

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome to a new feature here at Backline: our weekly soccer chat. This week, we discussed the new USWNT roster, Lyon’s victory in the Champions League, and the continuing saga of Christen Press’s club situation. 

The transcript below has been lightly edited.

Charles Olney (@olneyce) : Welcome everyone, to our first edition of the Backline Soccer chat. To kick things off, let’s start with the most recent piece of news: the roster for the US Women’s National Team, which just dropped an hour or two ago. What from this roster strikes people as worth discussing? McCall Zerboni getting a callup? Christen Press coming back in after missing the last set of friendlies? The lack of a single natural fullback in the squad?

Alanna Fairbairn (@jfhobbit): I was a little surprised to see Campbell left off the GK list, honestly. The Dash has been the Dash for most of the season, but she’s kept them in striking distance in a lot of games.

Charles Olney: Campbell does feel like a big omission. It’s hard to look at her and Harris, for example, and explain the difference. I’m certainly excited to see Casey Murphy on the list, though, given the issues that all the other big names have been having.

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I think the lack of experienced outside backs worries me most. The center backs are all real center backs. The outside backs are not.

Alanna Fairbairn: Yeah, the defense list was a head-scratcher

Tyler Nguyen (@tdn_): Do we think that Ellis just sees no fullbacks in the NWSL for her to choose from? Is anyone an obvious miss?

Alanna Fairbairn: I think all the fullbacks in the NWSL that have seen looks for the National Team have been exiled from the lists for one reason or another; Hinkle, Krieger, etc

RJ Allen: With Short and O’Hara out I think Ellis is less picking real replacements and more just shrugging her shoulders.

Charles Olney: I do think that the fullback pool is pretty weak right now. Looking at other options, Hinkle and Krieger are the two names that certainly leap out for me. Obviously, there are reasons why both might not get the call, but if you’re not going to take them, I’m not sure who else is really making a case for themselves.

Tyler Nguyen: Last season I would have said Gilliland is the obvious miss, but something’s up with her form this year. Good to see Purce get called up but she’s not really the finished product yet.

RJ Allen: I see no reason to call Krieger in at this point. Ellis has made it clear that Krieger’s time moving forward with the national team is done. Calling her up now to be a stopgap just takes the slot away from a player she might more likely take to the WWC in 2019.

Alanna Fairbairn: I see some reason to call Klingenberg, even with the fitness issues that she has. At least she’s experienced and would work well with Heath on the left side.

Charles Olney: Gilliland would be an interesting pick. Ellis has never seemed too enthusiastic about her, and her performances this year have been a little hit or miss. But when on, she’s been very good.

RJ Allen: Do we think Kristie Mewis would have gotten a look at outside back later in the year?

Tyler Nguyen: Oof. Too soon.

Alanna Fairbairn: I don’t think her play at outside back was anything to write home about. She didn’t really blossom until she was put up in the attacking formation

RJ Allen: Mewis was better than Huerta at outside back. (edited)

Charles Olney: Mewis (and Gilliland, et al) does raise the larger question of where this team stands in terms of depth. Ellis very clearly has strong opinions about a lot of players, and while we’ve seen a lot more movement in and out of the marginal slots recently, there do seem to be a batch of players that she simply thinks of as B/B+ players, and no matter how good their form, she just doesn’t buy them as national teamers. Do people think that’s a fair characterization? If so, is that a problem? Or just a quirk?

Tyler Nguyen: It does seem like Ellis hasn’t really ever accepted that players on the national team could just be role players.

RJ Allen: I really think Ellis is holding out hope that O’Hara and Short recover and are fine by next year. She doesn’t seem to really be testing out reasonable people for any new position, much less outside back.

Alanna Fairbairn: I think it’s a problem if they get zero looks at all on the international level. If they get called up and can’t hang, that’s one thing. If they’re prejudged without a call-up that’s an issue. But I also agree with RJ. She seems set on her lineup and these call-ups are just stopgaps until her Chosen Ones recover.

RJ Allen: Talent scouting is part of the job though. As much as I don’t always agree with the ones who are called up you can’t call up everyone in the set up the USWNT has.

Charles Olney: Let’s put this another way. Imagine that Ellis had to step away and you were put in charge of the team. What would you be doing differently in terms of personnel right now?

RJ Allen: Does cutting Carli Lloyd count?

Charles Olney: Sure does

RJ Allen: I really think Ellis is holding on to players that she shouldn’t. Lloyd being one of them. They don’t have the hold on her that someone like a Wambach, Boxx or Pearce had. But I think some of her thoughts are stuck in 2015.

Charles Olney: My approach would be to pretty radically shift things. My feeling is: China at this point isn’t dangerous enough to pose a serious threat to the best US squad, and we’re nowhere close to the World Cup yet. I’d take the chance to blood a bunch of new folks, try out young players that could fill in depth positions, or who might still grow into realistic first choice players a year from now. The Tournament of Nations is coming up and will give us plenty of time to see the first XI play together. Right now, let’s see the kids play, and give the vets a little bit of rest.

RJ Allen: I think this far in to the cycle is not the idea time to try out a bunch of people. I wouldn’t do that until after 2020 but I get why you would want to now. I agree some vets need the rest though.

Becky Schoenecker (@Beckster20): I would start with goalkeeping and shake that up a bit. I would have also called in different players, but I would use this time to like Charles said radically switch things up, but specifically with the keepers.

Alanna Fairbairn: I would kick Allie Long to the curb. I feel like she’s proved that while she’s spectacular in the league, she doesn’t provide much in any position for the NT except *maybe* forward, and we already have tons of those.

RJ Allen: I think Zerboni can do all Long can and a bunch of things she can’t. Long I think has the benefit of being willing to do whatever she is asked. She seems to have no problem playing wherever Ellis wants her.

Charles Olney: I’ve been a Long-skeptic for quite a while, and I generally agree with Alanna. But it would be pretty strange to cut her right now, when she’s playing about as well as I think she’s ever played. I’m not convinced it will last, but at least for the moment, Long is pretty clearly one of the best US midfielders.

RJ Allen: At a club level. Not at a USWNT level.

Charles Olney: I’m not convinced there’s a difference

RJ Allen: Not against China, no. Against England it is.

Becky Schoenecker: Long won’t lose a game for the US, I think she’s a safe roster position until some others step up.

Tyler Nguyen: Midfield for me is not a huge concern area at the moment. I think that US Soccer needs to better decide what they want from their fullbacks. It seems like the main objective is for them to be able to run the line all game, but they’re also expected to contribute to attack and there just isn’t talent out there to do both of those things on both sides of the field. The turnover at fullback in the past year or so has been pretty absurd

Charles Olney: Agree, Tyler.

RJ Allen: The only spots where I am pretty worry-free is centerback and forward. I think the three centerbacks are perfect and we have enough forward talent to make up for a lot of the midfield issues.

Charles Olney: Alright, I think there’s still plenty of national team conversation for us to have, but we’ll certainly have time to cover some of those issues over the next few weeks. For now, why don’t we turn to a different topic: the Champions League.

Lyon defeated Wolfsburg last week in a pretty peculiar game that saw very little action for 90 minutes and then all hell breaking loose as soon as extra time hit. Let’s talk for a bit about the game. How do people feel about the result?

Tyler Nguyen: Lyon are so stacked. Van De Sanden was the best player on the field and OL only brought her on after extra time started.

RJ Allen: I think the Champions League shows why most of the clubs don’t care about their regular club season.

Charles Olney: I get what you’re saying RJ, but I think that’s an exaggeration. Lyon is the exception who doesn’t have to worry about their domestic league. Most of the other big teams have serious competition.

RJ Allen: I am going to be called out for this – I’ll owe it – but I think the CL really contributes to the European leagues being so weak.

Charles Olney: We’ll need to bring on Chloe for a conversation soon, but I think there’s more depth in most of the European leagues than is often credited. Certainly, the attitude and structure of the leagues (and focus on Champions League as the height of competition) creates a system with less parity, but the mid-tier teams in England are still pretty good. The French league strikes me as the huge exception, and I wonder how much of that is driven by peculiarities of the French developmental system.

RJ Allen: I don’t see the English league as very strong. Though they just did a reshuffle on it.

Tyler Nguyen: Lots of players in the NWSL also go to the English leagues and vice versa so it should be pretty easy to compare the two. Look at Crystal Dunn and Nadia Nadim, two players who both swapped the two leagues recently. Both look like they’re more or less the same player.

Charles Olney: If anything, Dunn has been better on both sides of her time in England.

RJ Allen: I think a lot of the top teams might get a win against an NWSL side but over a 24 game season I don’t think any would beat the likes of Orlando, NCC, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Houston week in and week out the way they win games over there.

Charles Olney: Okay, so let’s take that back to Lyon for a second. I think it’s generally accepted that they’re the best in the world. But let’s have fun speculating a bit. How would they do if they were in the NWSL? I think it’s safe to say that they’d win the Shield, but by how much? Would it be close? What percentage chance would you give them to win the title?

RJ Allen: At best they would be maybe 3rd. At worst 6th. I don’t think they win the shield or get close.

Tyler Nguyen: I think the hardest part for Lyon would be cutting their roster down to 20. But I’d back them to get a home playoff spot and then crush the playoffs.

Alanna Fairbairn: I would say the same as Tyler. They just have so much pure talent and I don’t think most of the NWSL has the defensive lines needed to contain them

RJ Allen: Look, maybe I am crazy and maybe I’m not. But super teams don’t often do well in this league. It is really hard to play week in and week out against the other teams in the league and 1) keep everyone healthy 2) keep everyone happy and 3) not get complacent.

Charles Olney: I think those are all fair points. But I also think that Lyon’s second XI would be a playoff team in the NWSL. They’re just ridiculously stacked

RJ Allen: I am unimpressed with them as a team. They have a lot of great parts but I think the sum is weaker than the parts. But would I take Ada Hegerberg to play on any team in the league? Yes.

Charles Olney: I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on that point. But maybe another way to think about things would be to reverse the question. What if some of the top NWSL teams were in Europe? How would North Carolina and Portland do if they were in the Champions League this year? Would North Carolina win the WSL in England?

RJ Allen: I think Orlando, Seattle or NCC would do very well over in Europe. And without the same salary cap I think a lot of the coaches would have a blast pulling in a few more key players.

Alanna Fairbairn: I think Portland would strive to match Lyon for a stacked roster if they didn’t have the salary cap, which would definitely help them compete

Charles Olney: I think the point about roster limits and salary caps is important. But, of course, this is the whole reason why the NWSL is as balanced as it is. A Portland that didn’t have to deal with roster restrictions would really just be Lyon 2.0, wouldn’t it?

RJ Allen: Which would make the league weaker as a whole because it would create an imbalance that a lot of teams, money or not, wouldn’t be able to overcome. This is why I am a strong advocate for the leagues being more balanced and having tighter rules in place to keep it that way.

Charles Olney: Alright. One final topic for this week: Where in the world is Christen Press going to end up? Some news came out today suggesting that Göteborg might not be willing, or able, to cover the cost of her contract when it’s up in a few weeks. She has been good in Sweden—unsurprisingly—but the team is doing poorly, and it seems like they might be wondering whether the investment is worth it. That said, it doesn’t seem like any of the issues that led to her going to Sweden in the first place have really been resolved. Houston still owns her rights and doesn’t appear particularly inclined to negotiate.

So, the question: where do people think Press is in September? Back in the NWSL? Still in Sweden? Signed with a big European team in one of the top leagues?

RJ Allen: I think Mewis being hurt is going to force Houston’s hand. They need help and she is their biggest chip right now.

Alanna Fairbairn: I think it’s a matter of how stupid Houston’s front office is going to be about it. Or how stubborn, maybe is a better way to put it. I do not think she’s going to end up in Houston, no matter how much they may want her. They need to understand that, and get some serious value for her

Becky Schoenecker: I doubt she’ll end up in Houston, but I would like her to. I think they have a chance to get to the playoffs, which was a bit unthinkable at the beginning of the year. With Mewis out they need a Press to have any chance now I think.

Alanna Fairbairn: Houston already dealt with Carli Lloyd not really wanting to play there, I don’t really want them to have another unhappy star. It’s not a good look, and it doesn’t do anyone really any good.

Tyler Nguyen: Houston definitely feels like they need some value right now but I still don’t really see a trade out there that they’d be willing to accept. I don’t actually think Houston should play Press since their forward line looks so good at the moment. You want to bench Prince or Daly right now?

Charles Olney: If Press wanted to play for Houston, I think she’d actually slot in fairly well. She and Daly would play off each other well, and Press would alleviate some of the problems they have holding possession through the middle. But I agree: she’s almost certainly never kicking a ball for the Dash, so there’s not much point in speculating.

Becky Schoenecker: Which team could use her the most/would be willing to trade for her?

RJ Allen: I’d really like Press to go to Utah. I think she and ARod could make some magic happen and it would even things out. But I don’t know what Utah could give up for her. Seattle has pieces the Dash could use but they want a NT player, or they did, so unless they want to give up Long I don’t see it.

Charles Olney: I agree with RJ that Press would fit extremely well into the Utah system, but it’s hard to see what deal Houston would be willing to accept. One consideration: Heather O’Reilly is finished in England and Utah has her rights. It’s hard to see her being willing to go to Houston, either, but I have wondered whether a three-way deal could be possible that would send O’Reilly somewhere else.

RJ Allen: To be fair HAO doesn’t have to be willing. Houston just has to think she is.

Alanna Fairbairn: If O’Reilly were hypothetically willing to play in Houston, I would cry with happiness. I don’t know that they would be able to woo her, but she would help so much.

RJ Allen: Draft picks I would think. Or an extra international slot.

Charles Olney: If you were Houston, would you do a straight swap of Press for HAO (assuming you got some confirmation that she’d actually be willing to play for you)? I would.

Alanna Fairbairn: In a heartbeat.

Becky Schoenecker: Absolutely. I think HAO would fit in to their team much better as well.

RJ Allen: Assuming she was willing I think they would want HAO and a draft pick or something.

Alanna Fairbairn: I think it’s not just a talent thing either. HAO strikes me as the type of person who would fit in well with the ethos Pauw is trying to implement

Charles Olney: So it’s settled. HAO for Press. Both teams get better, and the we all get to watch some great players come back to the league. It’s a win for everyone.

RJ Allen: The other thing is that if Houston doesn’t trade her I’m not sure they get anything. The NWSL might have offered them something if LA gets a team and she’s moved there but there is no guarantee they will.

Charles Olney: That’s the other big question mark. If they expect to get decent value there, then it really might make sense to just hold her rights and wait for the payout. If all they’ll get is a draft pick or something, then it’s a pretty bad idea to give up a good trade chit when you could extract real value from Seattle/Utah/etc.

Tyler Nguyen: Last from me: I really want Houston to lean into their role of scrappy underdog team where players who just haven’t worked out on other teams prove their value. But it doesn’t seem like their front office really knows what their identity as a team is.

Charles Olney: Absolutely. Given how well the team has managed to do in terms of results, there’s a real chance to wipe away a lot of the bad taste from previous bungling. It’s just a matter of actually getting it done.