Tag: Vlatko Andonovski

Route Two Soccer: My 2019 NWSL Awards Ballot

Posted on by Backline Soccer

It’s time for some end of the year votes. Here’s my take on who should win the big awards.

MVP

  1. Sam Kerr

  2. Casey Short

  3. Christen Press

  4. Crystal Dunn

  5. Andi Sullivan

I am a longtime advocate of the ‘goals are overrated’ thesis, and have often been frustrated that the MVP award is really just a proxy for the Golden Boot award. But I don’t see how you could reasonably argue for anyone other than Sam Kerr as the 2019 NWSL MVP. She’s playing on an absolutely ridiculous level, and there’s no one else in the world who can match it right now. She participated directly in 23 goals (18 goals + 5 assists). That’s more than two entire teams scored (Sky Blue finished with 20 goals and Houston with 21). And she left for a month to go to the World Cup!

The gap between #1 and #2 is large, but the others are fairly close. In second place I have Casey Short, who deserves a huge amount of credit for the Red Stars’ best season yet (more on her below). After that I’ve got Christen Press and Crystal Dunn, both of whom missed about half the season but were so otherworldly-good during their limited time that they sneak onto the list. Dunn is the piece that transforms North Carolina from a very good team into an unbeatable one, while Press is the difference between Utah as a struggling bottom-feeder and a playoff contender. In fifth place I have Andi Sullivan, who took a massive step forward after a disappointing first season. Of all the players left off the World Cup roster, she’s probably the most likely to muscle her way into the Olympic 18 for 2020.

 

Rookie of the Year

  1. Bethany Balcer

  2. Sam Staab

  3. Gabby Seiler

This is one of the deepest rookie classes we’ve seen in a long time. Just consider that players like Tierna Davidson and Jordan DiBiasi don’t even make the top three. 

You could make a strong case for Staab as the winner here. Defending is hard, especially when you cycle out your entire defensive line and swap in a bunch of first and second year players. And Staab stepped into the role seamlessly, helping Washington produce one of the league’s stingiest defenses. But ultimately I sided with Balcer, who not only poured in goals but who also proved critical to building play and to an aggressive defensive press. 

Still, as good as both Staab and Balcer were, they only top this list because of Seiler’s season-ending injury. It’s no coincidence that Portland stumbled badly once Seiler was unavailable. She was central to orchestrating their possession. There are few players in the world with her positional awareness and passing acumen. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see a full season from her.

Goalkeeper of the Year

  1. Kailen Sheridan

  2. Aubrey Bledsoe

  3. Casey Murphy

Plenty of strong competitors here, including a few that were very good in limited minutes after spending a bunch of time away for the World Cup. I have Sheridan above the crowd for her consistency and range of abilities. She’s excellent at stopping shots, good at collecting crosses and controlling her box, and reasonably good with her feet. She struggled a bit in 2018, and understandably so given the horror show of the defense in front of her. But with a stabilized unit this year, she played with confidence and calmness, and was a big part of the reason Sky Blue conceded 18 fewer goals this season than they did last year. In fact, if you go by the advanced stats, she’s responsible for the majority of that improvement.

Defender of the Year

  1. Casey Short

  2. Megan Oyster

  3. Jaelene Hinkle

We sometimes throw superlatives around a little too easily, but Casey Short had a genuinely unbelievable year. She was voted on the Team of the Month for every single month of the season, and deservedly so. She’s always been a great defender, but took it to another level this year. She can play on either side, giving her team the flexibility to shut down whichever wing might pose a greater threat on the day. Her footwork is rock solid, her positioning good. And she even contributes a decent amount going forward. Just the complete package.

Oyster has been a stealth candidate for one of the league’s best center backs for a few years now, and this year was no different. You could make a similar case for her partner Lou Barnes, but for my money Oyster is the more important player at this point, thanks to her range and her anticipation. 

The list is rounded out with Hinkle, who is not without controversy, and who is rarely talked about as one of the key figures on this absurdly dominant North Carolina team. But she is the best attacking fullback in the league by a long way, and contributes quite a bit defensively as well.  

Coach of the Year

  1. Vlatko Andonovski

  2. Paul Riley

  3. Rory Dames

The easiest vote on the ballot – even easier than picking Kerr. What Andonovski managed this year, taking an injury-ravaged Reign team to the playoffs, is arguably the greatest coaching accomplishment the league has yet seen. As with all of Vlatko’s teams, they were defensively solid, calm in possession, and consistently hard to break down. To play that way under the best of conditions is impressive; to manage it through unprecedented roster turnover is genuinely astonishing. 

We’ve grown used to the dominance of North Carolina but it’s still worth noting how Riley has been able to keep his team firing on all cylinders. It’s always hard to come back after a record-breaking season, and they could easily have fallen to pieces once they started to struggle a bit early in the season. But he kept them moving and once everyone returned from the World Cup, they sliced through the rest of the league like a hot knife through butter. 

Rounding out the list is Rory Dames, whose Red Stars just put together their most complete season yet. I’ve written a lot about Chicago in the past few years, wondering why this collection of exceptional players couldn’t ever quite play up to their abilities. In 2019, they did it. This is now the smoothest-passing and most aesthetically-pleasing team in the league to watch, and the results have followed as well.

Team of the Season

Christen Press – Sam Kerr – Carli Lloyd

Crystal Dunn – Andi Sullivan – Kristie Mewis

Jaelene Hinkle – Megan Oyster – Becky Sauerbrunn – Casey Short

Kailen Sheridan

Most of these should be obvious from the comments above. But it’s worth noting Kristie Mewis, who is playing some of the best soccer of her life, and Carli Lloyd who continutes to shut up all her critics (myself included). Becky Sauerbrunn isn’t really Becky Sauerbrunn anymore, but she’s still great, and still somehow consistently underrated.

Second XI

Yuki Nagasato – Lynn Williams – Kristen Hamilton

Debinha – Sarah Killion – Denise O’Sullivan

Meghan Klingenberg – Abby Erceg – Julie Ertz – Tori Huster

Aubrey Bledsoe

Lots of great players here, including several that I’ve called overrated in the past. But not even I can deny how critical both Debinha and O’Sullivan have been to sustaining the North Carolina machine. I would never have guessed that Tori Huster would be in my second XI as a right back of all things, but she made a strong transition into the job. 

The three toughest calls were leaving out Christine Sinclair, Gabby Seiler, and Morgan Brian, each of whom was exceptional in limited minutes. But spots are limited and ultimately I decided to err in favor of players like Killion, O’Sullivan, and Williams who contributed a lot more bulk. 

 

Route Two Soccer: A Strong Start for the Reign

Posted on by RJ Allen

This offseason, the Reign said goodbye to their longtime coach Laura Harvey, and quite a few players as well. For many fans, this movement was disconcerting. Even for those who liked the changes in principle, there was plenty of concern about how long it would take them to get everything organized.

One week in, it’s still far too early to draw any serious conclusions. But the news so far is good. In this column, I want to take a quick look at the Reign’s first match, and see what it tells us about the new Vlatko Andonovski regime.

The team set up in a 4-3-3, which was hardly surprising. It was very similar to how they played under Harvey, and quite similar to the way Vlatko’s FCKC teams often played as well. The personnel available definitely creates some flexibility here, with both Allie Long and Jess Fishlock able to play a holding role, allowing them to shift easily back and forth between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 depending on game state. Against Washington, they spent the majority of the game on the front foot, allowing Long to generally play as a single holding midfielder, while giving her and Fishlock freedom to interchange as necessary.

Getting the most out of Allie Long

This is a role Long has played before, but rarely excelled in. She’s a solid defender in one-on-one situations, and her good workrate allows her to be a disruptive force, but her lack of positional discipline has always prevented her from truly excelling at the job of shielding the backline. Further, her tendency to dither on the ball is risky for a player tasked with winning the ball and distributing it quickly from dangerous positions. Finally, playing her deep tends to limit her opportunities to crash into the box—one of the most important qualities of her game.

In this game, however, Long looked transformed. All those good qualities were present, and she looked far more confident managing play. Gone were the tentative stabs that opened up space behind her. Gone was the player who often fell under some tough challenges, conceding possession in dangerous zones. She seemed far more locked into the holding role, and played it far better than she generally has managed.

She still isn’t the most dynamic passer—generally opting for static sideways balls if at all possible—but that’s really the only complaint to be found about her play. She was even able to pick and choose a fair number of opportunities to get forward and contribute in the box.

It’s never a good idea to draw firm conclusions from one game, particularly against a team as young and raw as this Washington side. But at least on the first impression, Coach Andonovski surely will have been pleased to see the Long and Fishlock partnership work out so well.

The magical Rapinoe

The Megan Rapinoe renaissance continues apace. She put on a show in this game, absolutely bamboozling Taylor Smith on multiple occasions, ranging far and wide to get the ball, shooting at will, and playing plenty of beautiful passes as well. It was a majestic game, from a player who may have lost half a step of pace, but who has more than made up for it with guile and precision.

That said, it’s once again worth mentioning the opposition. Taylor Smith had a great year in 2017, but hasn’t looked nearly as solid so far in 2018. Her first half here was particularly rough, as she persistently overcommitted only to find herself turned and chasing Rapinoe. She also struggled enormously trying to establish a working partnership on with Whitney Church—whose lack of pace exposed huge gaps in the right side of the defense.

Jodie Taylor also deserves credit. While she didn’t provide any singular moments to rival those of Rapinoe, her presence was felt all through the night. Seattle desperately needed a true #9 last year to establish a point of attack, soak up pressure, and give Rapinoe and Naho someone to play off. With Taylor, they’ve now got one, and it brought the attack into clear focus.

A backline full of options

All of the key performances for Seattle took place in the front six, but there’s plenty worth discussing in the back half of the pitch as well. We should begin by noting the incredible depth of the Seattle defense. The five starters last night are all excellent, but you could conduct a complete line change and replace them with five more top-level players. After all, they were missing two starters away on international duty (Lydia Williams in goal and Steph Catley at left back) and another (Yael Averbuch) to illness. Then consider names like Christen Westphal, Maddie Bauer, and Kristen McNabb and you’ve got two full defensive units that could easily be starting.

Of the group that started this game, the clearest positive story was Theresa Nielsen, whose first game in the league went very well. Many have suggested that the combination of Nielsen and Catley gives Seattle the best fullback duo in the league, and on the evidence of the night, there seems to be a lot to that. She is a dynamic player who will do a lot to settle the position for them. On the other side, Utsugi did fine, not blowing down any doors but getting the job done. It seems like she will be a nice luxury for Andonovski this year: a seasoned player who probably doesn’t start when everyone is healthy, but who can cover virtually any midfield or defensive position in a pinch.

At center back, Lauren Barnes looked a bit shaky. She has been a mainstay at Seattle for years, but appears to be in one of those phases that often hit players as they emerge out of their peak years: still good, but struggling to adapt to a slight loss of physical performance. It will be worth watching to see whether Averbuch slots immediately in as a starter once she’s healthy. On a team with fewer options, both would certainly be expected to play every day, but on a team with depth, some rotation might serve both players best, giving them time for rest and recovery to allow full exertion when they’re called on.

Finally, Michelle Betos put on quite a show in her first game back in the NWSL since she departed after the 2016 season. It was a vintage Betos performance, with some impressive sweeping, a few nice saves, and a few moments to set the heart racing. Williams should still be expected to start once she returns, but at a bare minimum Betos showed that Seattle have solid depth in the position.

Verdict still out, but a promising start

Ultimately, one game is only one game. Things could still very easily go wrong. But one theme coming into the year was concern that it might take Vlatko time to get everyone working together, to imprint his vision, and to establish the sort of style he wants to see. With five new players (many of them down the spine of the team), more new players to come, and a new coach, it would be understandable if things hadn’t really gelled. Instead, they hit the ground running.

Last year, Seattle finished fifth, five points off of a playoff spot. The four teams who finished ahead of them can’t have liked what they saw on Saturday night.

The Curious Case of Red Card Appeals

Posted on by RJ Allen

Going into Week 13 action, the focus has been officiating and discipline from the previous week. Week 12 saw two red cards given to Shea Groom of FCKC and Carli Lloyd of the Houston Dash, both in controversial plays that had many questioning the validity of the officiating. Carli Lloyd indicated that they would appeal her card and one-game suspension, but according to Dan Lauletta, the NWSL doesn’t have a process for such an appeal to occur: 

Just when it seemed like everyone was about to turn the page on red cards, the league announced a series of fines on Thursday to Dash player Amber Brooks, interim Head Coach Omar Morales, and FCKC gaffer Vlatko Andonovski. Somehow, the outspoken Carli Lloyd managed to escape a fine, but she will miss this weekend’s match against the Washington Spirit. (Lloyd missed three games with Manchester City earlier this year after she received a straight red there for elbowing an opponent.)

Many are saying this type of controversy is taking away from the play on the field. As the NWSL looks to grow into one of the top women’s leagues in the world, it’s a serious concern that the league does not have a policy in place to review red card decisions.

So, is it time for the NWSL to make adjustments to league’s discipline policy? And what would that look like?

Major League Soccer’s policy to appeal a red card is pretty straight forward: each team in the league puts up a $25,000 refundable bond for the opportunity to have red card appeals. The team is only allowed two unsuccessful appeals a season, and as a deterrent from this system being abused, if the ruling body determines the red card appeal is frivolous then the team loses the bond, loses the right to appeal any decision for the current season as well as the next season, plus the punishment of the red card appeal is doubled. For the appeal to be successful, the decision of the ruling body has to be unanimous otherwise the appeal is considered denied and the suspension stands. The ruling body is composed of a three-person panel made up of a member of U.S. Soccer, a member of the Canadian Soccer Association, and a member of PRO, the organization which manages the referees in North American soccer. The makeup of the panel is such so MLS can claim that the panel is independent since no one from MLS sits upon it.

This seems to work in MLS as the majority of teams don’t appeal a red card unless it is an obvious error. One of the recent successful appeals was back on June 7 when Orlando City won a red card appeal from a decision of Ted Unkel – who ironically is married to Christina Unkel the referee who dismissed Carli Lloyd last week.

Can a similar system work with the NWSL structure? Already one of the glaring problems that would have to be addressed is that league is backed by U.S. Soccer, so the league couldn’t claim that the ruling panel was independent since it works with the backing of the Federation. Would it matter if the panel wasn’t “independent” like MLS? Could an individual from a separate organization–the MLS, perhaps–sit on the panel in place of U.S. Soccer? Since the numbers of appeals would be so few and far between, it wouldn’t seem likely to be an issue, but the optics of impartiality may be something that could not sit well with a fan base for a team already frustrated by a red card of a player which merited an appeal.

Another item which the league would have to address is the amount of the bond which teams would have to put up. This being NWSL, if the league established the bond would every team even put up the cash for the bond? It seems unlikely it would be an amount as high as $25,000 but it would still be an amount significant to act as a deterrent if a team were to appeal frivolously. Thankfully Western New York isn’t in the league anymore, to be the team that doesn’t put up the money to give themselves red card appeals. It would still be something the league would have to figure out, but keep it from being public since the team’s fan bases would have a meltdown if their team didn’t put up a bond.

Ultimately, it doesn’t seem the league has ever thought to have a red card appeal system because it didn’t consider that the growth of the league would merit such a mechanism. Even going into the fifth season, the league seemed more focused on maintaining the existence of the league. However, at this point, nobody is questioning if the league will have a 2018 season and beyond. The league can finally shift its focus on improving policies like the adjusted hydration break policy midseason. As more attention is on the NWSL, we can expect to have a red card appeal process. We could even see a change in policy in yellow card accumulation like other leagues, as the season continues the twenty-four-match season and looks to expand to a longer season.

The next issue to address is that of the referees. The inconsistent decisions of the PRO referees reflect two things. First, the league is still young–in just its fifth season–so our referee pool is not fully developed and may need more experience to mature. A part of the growing pains of being a five-year-old league is the referees for the NWSL need to have the match time to improve. Even though the officials go through a series of training sessions, nothing is a substitute for match minutes – just like the players. As the play of the league improves, the speed of the game will get quicker, and the skill of the some of the referees will need to catch up with that.

And lastly, now that the league is consistently on television and more eyes are on the league, officiating errors will be more magnified. The referees are human and will make mistakes. Every league in the world has some type of officiating errors and fans complaining about the refs is just as common as soccer scarves and tifos. For now, there needs to be some patience with how the league handles red cards. Fans, players, and coaches will all have to wait and hope the NWSL will adjust its policy for future seasons.

Route Two Soccer – Gibbons Brings Creativity to the FCKC Midfield

Posted on by RJ Allen

2017 has been a good year for defenders moving into the midfield. First, was Julie Ertz with Chicago. And this weekend, we got another fascinating (and potentially transformative) example, with Christina Gibbons stepping out from her traditional left back role to patrol the central midfield for KCKC.

It’s impossible to discuss any part of KC’s season this year, without mentioning Amy Rodriguez, whose injury in the first game of the season threw everything into chaos. It’s hard to think of many players in the league that would have been more essential to the team’s plan going into the year. Without Rodriguez, they lack a true linking player in their attack. Despite immense talent (the KC frontline looked to be one of the most dangerous in the league at the start of the season), they’ve struggled mightily to find the creativity that can help unleash the full talents of Sydney Leroux and Shea Groom—who both work better as slashing attackers rather than as central strikers. Combined with the absence of Mandy Laddish, it’s been tough times down the middle for Kansas City this year.

Now, they are hardly without resources, and Vlatko has managed to put together a solid Plan B: a system with two holding midfielders at the base of a compact 4-2-3-1. The goal is to put a firm hand on the throttle, keep control of the game, and prevent the other side from getting the chance to come at you. But it’s hard to spend the whole year in a defensive crouch, and to his credit, he’s continued to tinker at the edges—looking for a way to get his talented attacking players better looks at goal.

A bit of serendipity brings Gibbons to central midfield

And this weekend, against Sky Blue, a small bit of serendipity seems to have helped that process along. With Lo’eau LaBonta suspended for the match, Andonovski asked Christina Gibbons, his rookie left back, to try her luck in the midfield.

On paper the move makes a lot of sense. Gibbons is very skilled on the ball, an excellent passer, with good field vision, and good pace. And while she still has work to do with her defensive positioning and tackling, she’s a good defender one-on-one. All of those skills suggests an able box-to-box midfielder, something KC has really been lacking this year.

Still, it was a gamble since, despite having moved around a lot—as young and talented players are often asked to do—central midfield is not one of the positions she’s spent much time in. And with only a few days to practice, there wasn’t much time for direction. As Gibbons described her training: “He gave me a few directions going into the weekend, but mostly just said ‘I want you to feel it out yourself and make adjustments as you go.’” She had a few days to try and get comfortable working with Desiree Scott to manage her new responsibilities covering arguably the most important area on the pitch.

So this was by no means a sure thing. But this sort of move—slightly outside the box, based on an expectation that his players all understand the team’s overall approach and setup, grounded in a deep sense of trust between player and coach—that’s been the hallmark of Vlatko’s tenure at Kansas City. After all, this is a coach who looked at Yael Averbuch and saw one of the league’s best center backs.

And once again, Andonovski’s vision paid off. It seemed to take Gibbons five or ten minutes to really get comfortable in the role, but before long, things started to click.

A fluid 4-4-2

One crucial advantage to playing Gibbons is the additional flexibility she brings to the role. Desiree Scott, Becca Moros, and even Lo’eau LaBonta (who has shown some flair this year) are all excellent players, but they’re generally best utilized as true holding players. They can get forward in the attack, but that’s not their primary role. With Gibbons, KC instantly becomes more expansive.

And in an effort to take advantage of that opportunity, the formation needed some tweaking as well, moving away from the 4-2-3-1 that looked to pack the midfield and seize control of the game and toward a 4-4-2 that played more expansively. And which played at a much higher tempo.

On defense, they generally worked with two banks of four in the defense and midfield, with Gibbons and Scott spread out to cover the midfield horizontally. On offense, however, Gibbons had a lot more freedom to move forward aggressively into an attacking midfield role. In fact, at times, the 4-4-2 actually split apart a bit, playing more like a 4-1-4-1, with Scott staying back as the only true holding player, and with Gibbons and Groom almost playing side to side as a pair of inside forwards.

Closer to a 4-1-4-1

And this raises another key point. This setup is notable for the flexibility it provides for the strikers. Groom, in particular, seemed to relish the opportunity. It gives her the chance to come back, pick the ball up high, and take people on going forward. There are few in the league who can match her at full flight with the ball at her feet, but playing out wide for most of the year, she’s had fewer chances to exploit defenses this way. In this 4-4-2, she had that freedom, and it made a huge difference.

A scary sight for opposing defenses

For almost the first time since that opening match, Kansas City looked like the dominant attacking force a lot of us expected them to be. And while Gibbons is still a long way from being ‘the next Amy Rodriguez,’ it was still notable just how much this setup seemed to revolve around her creativity and passing acumen on the center stage. You can see clear evidence of this in the first KC goal, of course, but there are plenty of other examples. The thing that immediately strikes you when watching Gibbons is how quickly the ball moves. One-touch passes, quick touches to produce an angle, and then moving the ball along. I’d love to see the Opta stats on this one, because at least subjectively, it didn’t seem like she necessarily had all that many touches. But when she did get involved, things tended to happen.

A (much) more open game

For all the benefits of this approach, there are of course consequences as well. If their previous setup was focused on managing and limiting the other side, this more fluid attacking approach depends on sacrificing some defensive stability. When the game is more open, there are more chances for both sides to step into that space. And if the KC attack is generally going to play higher up the pitch, it requires the whole team to do more pressing in order to close down counterattacks before they can get going. This is an approach that emphasizes disruption over control.

But (at least in the first half), this gamble more than paid off. Sky Blue spent most of the half looking a bit overwhelmed, and were often at a loss to make much of their possessions—turning the ball over as soon as they won it on quite a few occasions. In particular, neither of their central duo, Killion and Rodriguez, seemed to be particularly crisp. Amidst the harrying from Kansas City, they lost the ball far more often than they would have liked.

All of which meant that, very quickly, Sky Blue seemed to settle back into a fairly deep defensive position. They looked to pack their defensive third with bodies, giving Kansas City quite a bit of room on the ball in the midfield and out wide. In general, this probably is the best way for Sky Blue to play. Their defenders are quite good at soaking up pressure and closing down attacks once they’re in the danger zone, but far less good at managing wide-open defensive space. And for the first half hour, it did mostly work, with KC settling for some tame shots from distance and some not particularly well-measured crosses.

But Kansas City was pressing hard, and eventually the dam burst, with Groom moving wide and sending in a cross that Sheridan could only punch away. A delightful bit of insight and creativity from Gibbons and a solid strike from Bowen and KC found the back of the net.

The pressure kept up for the rest of the half, with Gibbons growing into the game, and defensive harassment giving her plenty of chances to shine. Eventually, that’s what produced the second goal, with Killion losing the ball on a tough challenge from Scott. A quick KC counterattack unfolded, with the Sky Blue defenders dropping away to try and set up their bunker. But Gibbons found the ball at her feet, with space to run, and simply went for goal.

A game of two halves

As the cliché goes, this one was very much a game of two halves, with Kansas City rampant for the first half and Sky Blue even more dominant for the second. A huge part of that is Shea Groom’s red card. For the second week in a row, Kansas City found themselves down a player for the second half. But where Houston was content to settle deep and let KC have the ball, Sky Blue was chasing the game and were absolutely relentless in doing so.

And here is where the serendipity turned around a bit. LaBonta’s suspension came with a big silver lining—by inspiring Gibbons’ move to the midfield, it breathed some new life into their attack—but in the second half her absence was felt quite keenly. As set up, KC was depending on aggressive pressing to close down the Sky Blue attack—and to shut off the supply to Sam Kerr at the top. But down a player, this simply wasn’t a viable approach. And with LaBonta unavailable, they simply didn’t have the sort of solid defensive substitute that was desperately needed to shore up the backline.

Sky Blue, who had been so frustrated for the whole first half, were suddenly given space all across the field, and 45 minutes worth of chances to target Sam Kerr in the box. The Kansas City defense managed to hold out for a long time, but eventually, exhaustion seemed to set in and Kerr was able to score a dazzling hat trick to clinch the game.

Going forward

All in all, that made for a bitter defeat, but one from which KC should be able to take a lot of solace. In a year of difficult results, they’re still only a couple of victories away from the playoff race and are now possessing some additional tactical options.

It will certainly be interesting to see how Gibbons is used going forward. In the short term, it’s hard to imagine Vlatko moving her immediately back to left back, but over the long term that may still be her best role. Especially once Laddish returns and can fill that crucial linking role.

And over the even longer term, this is a question that will be interesting to folks above and beyond just Kansas City fans, since Gibbons certainly is in the mix of young and talented players with a chance to break into the full national team. Left back is an extremely deep position right now, but if she has the flexibility to play elsewhere at a high level, that might make a difference in her chances of joining the squad.