Tag: World Cup 2019

France at the World Cup: Could This Be The Year?

Posted on by RJ Allen

In less than a week, France will kickoff the 2019 Women’s World Cup as the host nation, playing their opening match against South Korea in Paris. The French National Team, or Les Bleues as they’re known, are one of the favorites to win the tournament. But what do we know about the French team and how much of a chance do they really have to walk away with the title?

France is currently No. 4 in the FIFA World Rankings. They have been one of the best squads in the world for a while, despite having never won a major title (unless you count the SheBelieves Cup). Their best finish at the World Cup was fourth place in 2011. But they will be motivated to prove themselves on home soil, especially after suffering a devastating defeat to Germany in the Quarterfinals of the 2015 tournament.

Since that last tournament, France has brought on a new head coach and lost some of their biggest stars to retirement. Corinne Diacre became France’s head coach in 2017. She led the national team as a defender and team captain during her playing career, making 121 appearances for France between 1993 and 2005. She also made history as the first woman to coach a men’s competitive match in France when she took charge of second-tier side Clermont in 2014.

Some of the big names that won’t be gracing the pitch for France this year include Louisa Necib, Camile Abilly, Elodie Thomis, Laure Boulleau, and Laura Georges. They have a combined total of close to 700 appearances for France, with Georges sitting at No. 2 all time (behind Sandrine Soubeyrand with 198 caps). Those are some big losses for France, but where there are players retiring, there are youngsters ready to fill their shoes.

The team’s biggest names all play for Olympique Lyon, who won their fourth consecutive Champions League title last month. At 6’2, Wendie Renard is a dominant force in the central defense. She has captained this team before but has recently passed those honors off to Amandine Henry. This season, she led a Lyon defense that allowed just 11 goals across all matches in the 2018-2019 campaign. She will be joined in the defense by her Lyon teammate Amel Majri, who is naturally a midfielder but has been playing at left back in recent years. Majri is a difference maker for the French squad and was sorely missed in their 2017 Euro’s tournament. If she can stay healthy, she will be a huge asset to this French side.

Amandine Henry, the current captain for France, is the best midfielder on the French team and one of the best midfielders in the world. She spent two years playing for the Portland Thorns in the NWSL before joining Lyon. While she plays as a defensive midfielder, she always plays a critical role in the attack as well. Gaetane Thiney made the World Cup roster, despite those who thought the 2015 tournament would be her last. She will be looking to redeem herself after missing an easy goal that would have taken France through to the semi-finals in 2015.

Eugenie Le Sommer has long been the leader of the attack for France. She has 74 goals in 159 caps with France and 163 goals in 175 appearances with Lyon. Despite her creativity, Le Sommer and the French attack have historically had problems finishing. Two players to keep an eye on for France are two of the younger strikers Head Coach Corinne Diacre has included in the roster: Delphine Cascarino and Valerie Gauvin. Gauvin has five goals in France’s last seven friendlies, while Cascarino scored a brace against Denmark.

One notable absence from the French roster is Marie-Antoinette Katoto, who has scored 53 goals in 57 appearances for PSG since she joined the squad in 2015. Katoto had an inconsistent year, putting on a poor performance for PSG in Champions League competition, but Diacre’s decision apparently stemmed from her belief that the 20-year-old striker lacks focus and wasn’t ready for the world’s biggest stage.

The key for France will be finishing their chances. Despite having some of the best attacking players in the world, France’s failure in big moments has always come from not finishing. The opportunity for France to win the title this year, a year after the men won their title, on home soil is indescribable. But France also tends to underperform, to cave to the pressure in big moments. Will they be able to overcome that tendency and become the first country to ever hold the men’s and women’s titles simultaneously? Only time will tell.

A Quick Overview of the Women’s World Cup Groups

Posted on by RJ Allen

The Women’s World Cup is just a few days away. To help you prepare I’ve put together a quick guide to the six different groups.

Just one note before we get started. When identifying players to watch, I did look to provide an NWSL spin if possible. And some teams, oh my was it hard to pick just one.

Let’s get going, shall we?

Group A

Teams:
        France
        Nigeria
        Norway
        South Korea

The Favorite: France. They’ve been consistently ranked top 3 in the world and the event is happening in their country.

The Underdog: Nigeria has featured in every Women’s World Cup there has been. While they may not beat France they still likely get out and could play spoiler down the road.

Players to watch:
        Amandine Henry – France
        Francisca Ordega – Nigeria
        Emilie Haavi – Norway
        Lim Seon-joo – South Korea

Key match of the Group: France vs Nigeria on June 17.

Group B

Teams:
      China PR
      Germany
      South Africa
      Spain

The Favorite: The two-time Women’s World Cup winning Germany have to be the favorites. They’ve got a solid team, as they always do, heading into the 2019 event.

The Underdog: Spain may have a much better chance of winning a few games than people give them credit for. They could find a groove and do themselves proud.

Players to watch:
      Wang Shuang – China PR
      Dzsenifer Marozsán – Germany
      Linda Motlhalo – South Africa
      Alexia Putellas – Spain

Key match of the Group: Germany vs Spain on June 12.

Group C

Teams:
      Australia
      Brazil
      Italy
      Jamaica

The Favorite: If Australia doesn’t win this group it will be shocking.

The Underdog: Jamaica has one of the best stories of in the whole tournament, and the potential to back it up with some good results. Good things might be in their future.

Players to watch:
      Sam Kerr – Australia
      Marta – Brazil
      Sara Gama – Italy
      Khadija “Bunny” Shaw – Jamaica

Key match of the Group: Brazil vs Jamaica on June 9. If Jamaica can get one or three points here, it will be huge.

Group D

Teams:
      Argentina
      England
      Japan
      Scotland

The Favorite: Some might say England and some might say Japan. I am going with England.

The Underdog: Scotland is at their first Women’s World Cup, but they’ve got plenty of World Cup level talent on their roster. It’s a tough group, but they have a good chance of getting out.

Players to watch:
      Estefanía Banini – Argentina
      Lucy Bronze – England
      Rumi Utsugi – Japan
      Kim Little – Scotland

Key match of the Group: England vs Scotland on June 9. Can Scotland get a point or three and turn the group on its head?

Group E

Teams:
      Cameroon
      Canada
      Netherlands
      New Zealand

The Favorite: This is Canada’s group to lose.

The Underdog: The Netherlands aren’t a total underdog, but they don’t have the sort of historical success as Canada. 

Players to watch:
      Estelle Johnson – Cameroon
      Christine Sinclair – Canada
      Lieke Martens – Netherlands
      Ali Riley – New Zealand

Key match of the Group: The Canada vs Netherlands match on June 20 decides who takes the group.

Group F

Teams:
      Chile
      Sweden
      Thailand
      United States

The Favorite: If the United States doesn’t win this group it will be one of the biggest shocks in the opening rounds.

The Underdog: Sweden did beat the United States in the 2016 Olympics though.

Players to watch:
      Christiane Endler – Chile
      Hedvig Lindahl – Sweden
      Duangnapa Sritala – Thailand
      Julie Ertz – United States

Key match of the Group: The United States is going to have a pretty easy opening two matches. But the Sweden match could be a defining moment.

A Beginners Guide to the Women’s World Cup

Posted on by RJ Allen

The World Cup is the biggest event in global soccer, and it brings in a lot of fans who don’t necessarily spend a lot of time or energy thinking about the game in between the big events. But it can sometimes feel a little overwhelming trying to catch up on months or years of information that have passed by since the last time you checked in.

If you fall into that category, this is the guide for you. It will give you a quick rundown on the tournament, and provide a few helpful tidbits to let you join in on the conversation.

Where is it happening?

The tournament is in France this year, with games spread across eight venues. The opening match will kick off in Paris, which will also host several more group stage games and a couple knockout matches. Other cities like Nice, Reims, Valenciennes, and Le Havre will host matches in the group stages and first two knockout rounds. At that point, all eyes will turn to Lyon, which will host the semifinal and finals in the last week of the tournament.

Because the tournament is in France, the games will mostly take place in the late morning and early afternoon for most US viewers–which is a pretty good time to watch soccer!

How can I watch it?

Soccer is more fun in big groups, so find your favorite local watering hole and ask them to put it on. If that fails, you can also watch at home, with every game being broadcast on Fox, FS1, or FS2, and will also be available in Spanish on Telemundo and Universo. And on the principle that soccer is more fun in groups, if there’s no local establishment you’d like to visit, you could always put together a watch party at home. 

For those cord-cutters out there, everything is also available through streaming services like fuboTV.

Who are the favorites to win the tournament?

  • The United States are defending champions, and have a strong chance to win again this time. There’s been some turnover since 2015, but most of the core of the old team is still around, supplemented with some important new contributors. This squad is deep and very strong.
  • Co-favorites are France. It would be a first-time title for the team, almost exactly two decades after their male counterparts accomplished the same thing on home soil in 1998. This French team is as good as they’ve ever had.
  • Germany are two-time winners (2003 and 2007), and the defending Olympic champions. They haven’t had a great last couple years, but things seem to be falling into line at the right time. They will be strong contenders.
  • Australia are the newest of new kids on the block. They have a core of young players who have grown together over the past decade, and with Sam Kerr, they’ve got arguably the best player in the world leading their line.
  • Honorable mentions: England continue to develop and could pose a real threat. The Netherlands are the defending European champions and have an impressive attacking array. This is likely Christine Sinclair’s final World Cup, and Canada will do everything they can to boost her to the final. And it’s never wise to count Japan out, even if they don’t look as strong these days.

Some key storylines to follow

  • Broken record. Christine Sinclair has scored 181 goals in her illustrious career, leaving her just three behind Abby Wambach’s record of 184. It would be a fitting capstone on the career of an all-time great to break the record in her final World Cup.
  • A deadly quarterfinal. If the United States and France both win their groups, they will be on a collision course for a quarterfinal showdown between the two tournament favorites. It would take place on June 28 in Paris, in front of 50,000 fans.
  • The Sam Kerr wrecking tour. There are several players with a case for being the best in the world right now, but in my opinion Sam Kerr is the first among equals. She’s led both the NWSL (United States) and W-League (Australia) in scoring in both of the past two seasons. If her form continues, this could be a performance for the ages.

Five group stage games that are worth watching

If you can only catch a few games, here are some that will be most likely to give you some serious bang for your buck:

  • France vs. South Korea. June 7. The opening match of the tournament, held at the Parc des Princes in Paris. The atmosphere should be raucous, as Les Bleus look to start things off with a bang.
  • England vs. Scotland. June 9. The oldest rivalry in soccer gets another new chapter in the book. England will be the favorites, but don’t sleep on this Scotland team. You’ll want to pay particular attention to Kim Little—one of the world’s best players finally given a chance to shine on the biggest stage with her country.
  • Germany vs. Spain. June 12. Germany are one of the best teams in the world, and Spain are a rising power. Whoever wins this group will gain a relatively easy slot in the elimination bracket. Whoever finishes second will probably have to play the United States.
  • Netherlands vs. Canada. June 20. Two excellent teams that will likely be playing to see who gets to top the group. Canada are a defensive stalwart, while the Dutch have one of the most exciting attacks in world soccer. Which will come out on top?
  • Sweden vs. United States. June 20. Two classic rivals facing off in the final slot of the group stages. They’ll not only be fighting to top the group, but there will also be an element of revenge, after Sweden bounced the US out of the Olympics in 2016.

Who should I support?

Support whoever you like, and don’t mind anyone who says otherwise! There are exciting stories with every single team in the tournament, and plenty to root for in every case. But if you still aren’t sure, here’s a short guide to provide some assistance:

  • If your favorite teams are the New York Yankees, Golden State Warriors, New England Patriots, and Real Madrid, then you should support the United States.
  • If you want to jump on a bandwagon, you should support Australia.
  • If you want to jump on a slightly hipper bandwagon, you should support Spain.
  • If you’re so hip that you only want to support a team if everyone else is jumping off the bandwagon, you should support Brazil.
  • If you want to support a team making their first appearance in the tournament (and you should!), you should support one of Chile, Jamaica, Scotland, or South Africa. My personal tip is Jamaica, but they’re all great.
  • If you want to see your team play beautiful soccer, you should support Japan.
  • If you want to support an African team with a chance to make a deep run, you should support Nigeria.
  • If you want to boisterously sing a great national anthem after a victory, you should support France.

But, again, there aren’t any wrong answers here. All the teams are well-deserving of some love.

Who should I follow to stay up to date?

I will be covering the tournament from France, and you’re certainly welcome to follow along with me at @olneyce. But assuming you want a wider range, there are some excellent lists of recommended follows provided by our friends Jacob Cristobal, Sophie Lawson, RJ Allen, and Kim McCauley.

I’m enjoying the World Cup so much, and I’m sad it will be over soon

You’re in luck! Almost everyone participating in the World Cup also plays in their domestic leagues. If you want to see more Sam Kerr, Crystal Dunn, and Christine Sinclair, you can tune into the National Women’s Soccer League – with games going on right through the World Cup and continuing on immediately after. And many other leagues around the world will start back up at the end of summer. There’s a world of great women’s soccer out there, just waiting for your attention!

Backline Chat: Welcome to a World Cup Year

Posted on by RJ Allen

Charles Olney (@olneyce): Hello, and welcome to our first Slack Chat of 2019. I hope everyone had a good new year, and is excited for a big year. To kick things off, I thought we should start with some fun stuff before turning to some of the more depressing elements in recent news. So…it’s a World Cup year! What is everyone most excited for in 2019?

RJ Allen (@TheSoccerCritic): I really am looking forward to watching the first time teams in the World Cup.

Allison Cary (@findingallison): I’m excited to see Scotland and I’m excited to see if France can keep playing quality football.

RJ Allen: Kim Little on the world’s stage? Yes, please.

Allison Cary: My sister is going to school in Scotland so it’s particularly exciting for this to be going on while she’s there.We’re hoping to catch a game in France.

Charles Olney: My honest answer is simply that I’m excited for the incredible opportunity to be in Europe this summer, which means I’ll be able to see a bunch of the World Cup in person. And I’m obviously excited for the chance to see the US make a deep run. But in terms of storylines, I think there’s just so much potential. Could France finally win a title? Could England or Australia take that next step? Could some of these new rising powers like Spain and Italy make the leap into the inner circle? Can some of the new teams put their mark on the tournament.

RJ Allen: I have a lot of questions about the World Cup but you’re right, there are some really amazing storylines.

Allison Cary: So much potential.

Charles Olney: I’d love to see the US win, but I have to admit that a new winner would probably make for a more interesting tournament.

RJ Allen: US, Norway, Germany, and Japan are the only winners. It would be nice to see another name added to the list.

Allison Cary: If France wins, per a previous slackchat, I’m obligated to move to France. I’m not opposed to that lol.

Luis Hernandez (@radioactivclown): I’m looking forward to the matches and if New Zealand can get out of the group. Plus how the NWSL will handle absences.

Charles Olney: If it were to be a first-time winner, who do people think is most likely? France is probably the obvious pick, especially given their recent victory over the US, but are people still high on some of the other big teams?

RJ Allen: I would have guessed Australia two weeks ago.

Allison Cary: I would say Australia but I’m not sure with the latest coaching drama.

RJ Allen: Now? I don’t know. France or maybe England? I’d love to see Canada get one for Sinc.

Allison Cary: England maybe? I’m not sure if they’re ready to go all the way.

RJ Allen: I really would like a team other than the US to win. I think it’s better for soccer world wide if other teams can take down the US now and again.

Allison Cary: I agree with RJ.

Charles Olney: I was looking over the betting odds this morning, and put up a tweet. I have to say that the odds look a little off to me, but I’m curious if others think so.

RJ Allen: I do not think these betting books know Germany’s state of affairs right now.

Charles Olney: I still think the German team has a lot of potential, but yeah, I certainly don’t think recent evidence suggests they belong in a tier with the US and France.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I’m also not that confident in Japan.

RJ Allen: This is, to me at least, proof that while betting markets are not great now, they might drive some change. The house wants to keep their money. So they are going to need some better stats and better people predicting these things. They might drive that area.

Charles Olney: I think it’s interesting that Spain is right up there. I really enjoyed watching them against the US this week, but I felt like they were still a little under the radar. I wonder whether some of that is people transposing their judgments about the quality of the men’s team.

RJ Allen: Brazil being so high might be the same thing.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I think Spain could make a decent run, but I don’t see them going all the way. They looked better than expected against the US, but not quite there yet.

RJ Allen: Can we all agree if North Carolina was in the World Cup (at full roster) they would be on the top 5 in the list?

Charles Olney: Definitely. I was actually thinking about them and Lyon and how they’d fare if they attended the World Cup. And I think it’s a good sign for the game in general that we’re getting close to the point where the very highest level of soccer is at the club level rather than the international level. We’re not quite there yet, but the tipping point might be coming soon.

Charles Olney: Okay, so turning the attention toward the US in particular, I’m curious if anyone has any broader thoughts about the recent friendlies. Anything to worry about there, or just a normal way to kick off the year?

Luis Hernandez: No worries for the first two matches after months being off for me.

RJ Allen: I think a lot of the worry about the games are going to end up not being founded. They have been off for a few months, it’s their pre season, a lot of players aren’t playing or have been hurt. If they look like this in May I will worry. But right now, no.

Allison Cary: I’m not worried about the U.S. Maybe it’s just me, but I learned more about the U.S. opponents in these two friendlies than I did the U.S.

Luis Hernandez: I enjoyed how Spain moved the ball. Didn’t know they were skilled to do that for their team.

RJ Allen: I agree with Allison. I think we learned a lot about France.

RJ Allen: We had no real answer for Henry. And while Horan should be able to match her, this game she very much did not.

Charles Olney: One impression I got from talking with the French players and coaches at that game: it mattered to them. A lot. They really wanted to lay down a marker, and it showed in the performance. That’s a great sign for a team that’s often struggled a bit to handle the pressure. I think they’re ready this time.

RJ Allen: That to me is a big deal. France doesn’t seem to really fear the US, at least in that match.

Allison Cary: Yeah, which caught my eye. France seemed really ready to prove that they belonged in that top tier.

Charles Olney: The US may still end up beating them in the quarterfinals, and we may end up talking about yet another France team that underperformed. But right now, I feel as confident about France as I ever have.

Allison Cary: They weren’t intimidated. They played their game. If they do that in June… they’re dangerous.

RJ Allen: Also, can we talk about the packaging of the games themselves for a moment? They were not really featured games. They weren’t cash cows. They were in Europe. The game against Spain was in the middle of a day. That feels big for the US in general.

Charles Olney: Yeah, that’s a great point. The US has often treated friendlies more as opportunities to make money than anything else. And they arguably still have a few of those coming up later in the spring. But on the whole, this seems like a team that’s keeping their eyes on the prize. And that’s a good thing.

Charles Olney: So, that’s a lot of positives. But I do want to focus our attention on two other stories that have been dominating the news lately, which are less encouraging. One is the confusing and troubling story surrounding the coaching change at Australia. The other is the persistent moving disaster that is Sky Blue FC. Let’s start local and discuss the unfortunate team in New Jersey.

RJ, you had some reporting that just came out about events there. And we’ve had a couple other stories recently about the continuing problems. At this point I almost don’t know where to start.

RJ Allen: So I have had a lot of conversations in the last few months with people that are no longer with Sky Blue. About a week about I spoke to someone still much more connected.

As I think you and I have spoken about on the 123rd Minute, Reddy had largely escaped conversation. And this person made it clear that is a mistake.

Charles Olney: I almost feel like we spent so much time in 2018 talking about the problems at the management level that we all really wanted to construct a narrative where the coach and the players were innocent victims just trying to survive in a cruel world. But your reporting makes it seem like Reddy maybe should have come in for a lot more criticism at the time. It was certainly strange to see a team that honestly had a lot of talented players do SO wretchedly bad week in and week out. And it was peculiar how the coach never really seemed to come in for the kind of criticism we’d expect.

RJ Allen: The information I have really does paint a picture of someone who sucked in as much power as they were able, due in large part of the issues in management, and had a hard time using that for the benefit of the players.

Charles Olney: It does strike me as a situation where it would be incredibly hard to succeed. So it’s possible that in more favorable conditions, Reddy might have sailed along just fine. So I certainly hope that none of this ends up taking away attention from the major problems at the top. But it’s definitely important to look at all parts of the picture.

On that note, as we are talking here it’s been two weeks since the draft. There, Tony Novo promised significant news on progress would come ‘within 30 days.’ Is anyone holding out hope that we’ll actually see something meaningful there?

Allison Cary: Nope.

Charles Olney: And if not, do we think Sky Blue is going to actually make it to the end of the season with enough players to fill a starting XI every game?

RJ Allen: No.

Allison Cary: No.

RJ Allen: They might have enough players because as we all know people dream of playing pro. There are enough ex NCAA players in New Jersey to fill in an XI. Look at Sky Blue’s roster in the past. They have always counted on local players. More than most.

Charles Olney: I do still hold out a little bit of hope that the remaining players manage to band together and fight this out, like you’d see in a classic sports movie where the underdogs find a way to show everyone their spirit. And there IS still a decent amount of talent theoretically on that roster. But as each week goes on, I find it harder and harder to be positive.

RJ Allen: My question is though, what does that buy? If they win games, what does that buy other than some cover to keep the team going? It might make the players a bit happier but all it does it prolong the fate that is written on the walls.

Allison Cary: Yeah, perpetuating a bad system isn’t necessarily good. Unfortunately, Sky Blue struggling along could do more harm than good.

RJ Allen: And I admit I am a bit pessimistic about all of this. But still.

Charles Olney: At this point, I think the best case scenario is a modestly positive year, which will allow everyone to feel good about moving on during the next offseason when they’re pushed out of the league…or when someone who will make real changes comes in to buy them out. But I agree: doing just well enough to survive without making any real changes might be even worse than ‘raze the ground and then salt the earth after.’

Charles Olney: Alright, so another troubling story: Alen Stajcic, the coach of Australia, was let go under the cloud of a recent report describing ‘toxic’ conditions on the team. It’s a very strange story with quite a lot of it hidden from view. I’m curious if anyone has any clear thoughts about what it all means.

RJ Allen: I think the federation has handled this horribly. Even if he was released with 100% cause, the federation makes it look like a hit job in a way that makes them look worse.

Charles Olney: Can’t argue with that. It does seem like, based on the information they seem to have, firing him was the right call. But the manner in which it’s been done has been very rough.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I don’t feel like I have enough of the story to make a clear judgment. But it’s been weird.

Charles Olney: Which doesn’t really do any favors to anyone.

RJ Allen: Players seem caught off guard too. Which is never a great look.

Allison Cary: Yeah, their statements haven’t been a position reflection on the federation.

Charles Olney: Which makes me wonder about those players who contributed statements about the toxic environment. Are they just hanging back in silence, feeling like they were hung out to dry by this process? Are they feeling pressure to say positive things now, because that same toxic environment is lingering, as many of the players who liked Stajcic have said positive things?

It would be particularly cruel to make it even harder for players to be honest and clear about how they’ve been treated because the Federation doesn’t want to air their own dirty laundry.

RJ Allen: Without the details of what a “toxic environment” is, I’m not sure what to think. Does it mean not welcoming newer players or players without the pro polish to them? Does it mean abuse? Without details it’s left up to us to put name to it. Which is never good.

Allison Cary: Yeah, especially considering the England scandal is still fresh in a lot of people’s minds, it’s not hard to assume the worst.

Charles Olney: There have been some more details in some of the media reports that have come out after. Things like abusive comments, body shaming, harassment that’s unrelated to on-field performance. All of which does sound like a really negative culture. But none of those are official statements, so we still have to wonder. And yes, I totally agree with Allison that the context of the Mark Sampson affair absolutely can’t be forgotten.

RJ Allen: Seeing more senior players supporting Stajcic just makes it more difficult for everyone. Having Kerr and LDV and so on look like they are blind sided is going to make a lot of the fans question this all. Plus an assistant quit in protest.

Charles Olney: Alright, I think we’ll probably have more to say on this subject as we potentially get more information. But for now, why don’t we turn back to some more positives, and discuss the NWSL. We have the draft, and some trades to mull over. And I’m curious what y’all think about where teams stand going into 2019. Who has made progress? Anyone who looks like a good bet to break into the top 4? Anyone who made the playoffs last year that you think is in danger of dropping out?

Bearing in mind that this will be a strange year, where many of the top teams will be losing huge portions of their roster for half of the season or more. Is there anyone that will be relatively unharmed by the World Cup that looks poised to take advantage of that opportunity?

RJ Allen: North Carolina is going to win the league by > 9 points. NTers or no. That team will win on the underdog story all their “best” players are gone.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I agree.

RJ Allen: I think Chicago has a really good shot this year. Seattle with Groom will be fun too. And now that we’re in this part of the season I can’t wait for the Laura Harvey mega trade.

Allison Cary: Yeah, I like Utah.

Charles Olney: That’s definitely the thing that’s most been missing this offseason.

Allison Cary: Definitely.

Charles Olney: I’m personally very torn on Houston. I think there’s a decent chance that they suffer a bit of regression to the mean this year, dropping down a bit simply because they probably overperformed their talent a bit last year. On the other hand, they’ll have a roster that’s comparatively less hit by the World Cup. And maybe they actually take a step forward. If so, they could actually even sneak into a playoff spot. I’d certainly love to see a new team make the playoffs – whether Houston or Utah. It’s always good for a new set of fans to have a playoff team to support.

RJ Allen: If Daly is there all year, and I don’t think she will be, and Mewis the Elder is back, they have a really good shot.

Charles Olney: Anyone have any thoughts about Washington? Their new coach seems to think very highly of himself. Anyone believe that he’ll be able to back it up?

Allison Cary: Not really. I just haven’t seen anything promising.

RJ Allen: I think that he is going to have some :fire: quotes from post games.

Charles Olney: I’d like to believe they have a plan. But…it’s a little hard to see how it’s supposed to work. I’ll keep my fingers crossed for them, I guess.

Alright, any final thoughts on the world of women’s soccer before we wrap up for the day? Any other stories that have piqued your interest?

RJ Allen: I am so glad we got to see soccer from the US. I missed it.

Allison Cary: The Afghan women’s national team story has gone a little quiet. It’s hard not to feel pessimistic there, but I think it’s important to just mention it.

RJ Allen: I agree.

Charles Olney: Absolutely. There’s just so much depressing news out there. It can feel overwhelming trying to keep up with it all.

Allison Cary: Absolutely.

Charles Olney: That’s kind of a grim note to finish on, but I think that’s alright. There’s plenty to be excited about too, of course, but it’s important to always remember how much work there still is to do.

Alright, thanks everyone for participating, and thanks to the folks out there for reading. We’ve got a big year coming up and are excited to get to share it with you.

World Cup Power Rankings: Evaluating the Draw

Posted on by RJ Allen

Last week I divided the World Cup competitors into five tiers. Now that we have the full draw, it’s worth taking a look to see how everyone is situated. Did anyone’s road get easier? Harder? Is there a ‘group of death’? 

For the most part, the answer to all the questions is ‘no.’ Given a strict seeding system, the pots were pretty evenly balanced. That said, some of the groups do look a bit more interesting, and maybe a bit tougher, than others. So let’s dig in.

Group A: France (tier 1), Norway (tier 3), South Korea (tier 3), Nigeria (tier 4)

This is probably the toughest group from top to bottom. Nigeria was one of the strongest teams in Pot 4, and the same is true of South Korea in Pot 3. Which means all four teams have a legitimate chance of advancing. That said, the overall strength of the group is probably good for France, who is a clear step ahead of the other three. If everyone plays to their level, I’d expect Norway, South Korea, and Nigeria to take points from one another, letting France escape fairly easily with a first place finish. That said, this is one of the groups with the highest variance in possible outcomes. If France does slip up in their opening match against South Korea, there’s a high possibility for chaos to ensue.

Group B: Germany (2), China (3), Spain (3), South Africa (4)

If Group A isn’t the strongest overall, it’s probably this one. Plus, Germany isn’t playing at France’s level right now–and won’t have the home field advantage–which makes the top spot far more open. I’d still expect Germany to have more than enough to handle the others, but it wouldn’t be especially surprising to see either China or Spain sneak into the top position. Then factor in that South Africa is no one’s idea of a pushover, and you have maybe an incredibly fascinating group. I like this Spain team a lot, and was considering adopting them as my dark horse team to follow. This group creates the highest range of possible outcomes they were likely to encounter. They could win the group or finish in last place, without a massive difference in performance.

Group C: Australia (1), Brazil (3), Italy (3), Jamaica (5)

The first group with a clear team at the bottom. Jamaica are probably the weakest team in the tournament, and the draw didn’t do them any huge favors. Italy and Brazil are vulnerable, but it would be a major shock if they dropped points against the Reggae Girlz. Meanwhile, although Australia will want to avoid getting overconfident, they should be able to manage first here without too much trouble, particularly since they play Jamaica last and will know precisely how many goals they’ll need to score to win the goal difference tiebreaker, should they find themselves in a position where that matters. Which means Italy v. Brazil on June 18 could be one of the key matchups in the group stage.

Group D: England (1), Japan (3), Scotland (4), Argentina (5)

This is probably my favorite group. Strictly going by tiers, it looks pretty straightforward. But Japan, Scotland, and Argentina are all among the strongest teams in their tier. If Japan plays like they did over the last 18 months, England should have no trouble with them, and the big question will be whether Scotland can overtake them. But it doesn’t pay to underestimate Japan in big tournaments, and I have a sneaking suspicion that their commitment to youth is going to pay off next summer with a team that looks closer to the dangerous Japan teams over the earlier part of the decade. Then consider the excitement of England v. Scotland, and you’ve got an opportunity for some serious fireworks.

One other thing worth noting: the winner of this group gets placed in probably the best spot in the bracket–facing a third place team in the round of 16 and then a relatively weak runner-up (probably Brazil or Norway) in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, whoever finishes second will get thrown into a Round of 16 showdown with either Canada or the Netherlands, and would then probably have to play Australia in the quarterfinals. Ouch.

England and Japan play in the final match on June 19, which will probably determine who goes where. That’s definitely one worth marking down on your calendar.

Group E: Canada (2), Netherlands (2), New Zealand (4), Cameroon (5)

This is just about the best possible outcome for the Dutch, who were (pretty easily) the strongest team in Pot 2. They’ll face off against the weakest team from Pot 1, in the only group where there’s nothing close to a clear favorite to win the group. I’d bet on the Netherlands, but not by much. Meanwhile, New Zealand is good enough to play with the top two, but more realistically will have to hope to keep those games tight enough that a big win over Cameroon is enough to see them through.

Group F: USA (1), Sweden (3), Chile (4), Thailand (5)

Yawn. theoretically possible for the US to fail to advance from this group, but it would be the single most shocking result in the history of women’s soccer. In fact, it would be deeply surprising if they did anything other than win the group at a canter. Even if Sweden pulls another miracle out of their hat, their chances of beating the US are pretty low, and the Americans will probably score a dozen or so goals in the other two matches, putting their goal difference out of reach. Basically, the US almost literally couldn’t have been handed an easier group. That said, if they stroll into a quarterfinal match against France having barely been tested, they might end up wishing for a bit more pressure in the early stages.

In my initial framework, I identified 15 teams in the top three tiers. These are the ones that I believe should expect to advance to the knockout round, all things being equal. Now that we have the groups, though, it looks like the teams in Groups A, B, and C might have drawn a slightly shorter stick. They’ll each be competing with other similarly-situated squads for the two guaranteed slots. If they can’t manage that, they’ll have to cast their luck with the third-place chances. But precisely because they’re in tougher groups, they’re more likely to drop points compared to teams in the other groups that face some slightly easier competition.

Meanwhile, Group F looks like the place least likely to produce a third place advancer. Whoever finishes third in that group will probably have a battering from the US dragging down their goal difference, meaning they’ll almost certainly need four points if they want to get through. Which means they’ll need a draw against Sweden–possible, but unlikely.

All of that said, it’s still a long way from June, 2019. Some of these teams may show enough over that time to significantly affect our assessment of their chances. And, of course, soccer is a funny old game so you never want to bet too heavily on things going to form.

What are your thoughts? Who got the easiest draw? The toughest? Which matches are you most anticipating?

World Cup Power Rankings: Favorites, Dark Horses, and Longshots

Posted on by RJ Allen

After several years of qualifying tournaments, the guest list is finally set. We now know the official list of twenty-four teams who will be attending the World Cup in France next summer. The latest FIFA rankings will drop on December 7, allowing for the creation of four pots from which teams will be drawn on December 8.

In the meantime, this is an opportune moment to reflect on the teams who will be attending. Who are the favorites? Who are the dark horses? Who is expected to struggle?

For sake of categorization, I’ve divided the nations into five tiers. Not every team in each tier is equal, of course, but these seemed to be the logical places to draw rough lines of separation.

Tier 1: Favorites

USA, France, Australia, England

It’s very likely that one of these four teams will win the World Cup.

Based on current form, the US arguably deserves to be in their own category (call it Tier 1A), after racing through an undefeated 2018–a year in which they played all the other major competitors apart from the Dutch. But even if the US are clear favorites, it’s not by a huge margin. All four of these teams are stacked, and if they were to face off in the late stages of the Cup, it would be anyone’s game. France has the advantage of playing at home (which is a serious advantage), so they’re probably second-favorites. But England and Australia are filled with talent, and both look ready to step into the inner circle of world powers. And who wants to be the one to bet against Sam Kerr or Fran Kirby when it’s all on the line?

Tier 2: Challengers

Germany, Netherlands, Canada

Here we find three high quality teams, each with enough flaws and limitations to keep them out of the top tier, but each good enough to beat anyone.

Germany is probably the surprise here; we’ve grown accustomed to seeing them trading spots at the top of the rankings with the United States, and looking over the roster there doesn’t seem to be any massive holes. But the results simply haven’t been there for a long time, so clearly something is missing. The biggest banana skins for them are in the defense–which is nowhere near as resolute as it once was–but they’re also missing a true world-class striker. Still, there is a boatload of talent in the team, so it would be tough to really bet against them. If Dzsenifer Marozsán plays the way we know she’s capable of, if Alexadra Popp can find her way back to being a top striker, if some of their young players take that key step forward…the potential is all there.

Then there’s the Netherlands. The European champions have already demonstrated they have the capacity to win a major tournament. The Dutch chances will rise and fall with their world-class attacking talent: Lieke Martens and Vivianne Miedema. Together, they make a strike force as dangerous as any in the tournament. But there’s quality up and down this roster. While they had a difficult route to qualification—having to squeeze through a four-team playoff—they’re here now, and no one will fancy a knockout match against them.

Rounding out this tier is Canada, who lack the depth of the other top teams, but will hope to catch lightning in a bottle and finally give Christine Sinclair a major trophy. Their tournament will probably depend heavily on Jessie Fleming. Still quite young, she can sometimes drift out of games. But on her day, she’s about as unplayable as anyone in the world. They’ll need a top quality performance from her, Sinclair, and probably a few others if they hope to take home the cup. But if the chips fall right, it could absolutely happen.

Combined, these top two tiers contain seven teams. I’d estimate that chances are probably 90-95% that one of those seven lifts the cup on July 7 in Lyon. Of the set, only the US and Germany have won the competition before. For the other five, this would be a chance to enter the narrow ranks of World Cup winners.

Tier 3: If everything breaks right

Japan, Brazil, Sweden, China, Norway, Italy, Spain, South Korea

The teams in this group all have enough quality to at least theoretically fit into the conversation for title contenders. More realistically, they should treat a visit to the quarterfinals as a strong performance, with anything more being icing on top.

Most have some specific reasons to be hopeful, though all have serious areas of concern as well. Brazil will have Marta, of course, but while still a superb player, the days have passed when she could potentially win a tournament by herself. And the rest of the squad has simply never filled in the gaps behind her. This may be her last hurrah, and it would be exciting to see it conclude with a deep run.

Japan, meanwhile, have seen their golden generation pass without any signs of sufficient replacement. Still, the 2015 finalists overachieved to make it that far, so it would be a mistake to write this version off too quickly. Japan’s main advantage is a unified style of play—technical, precise, and fluid. They lack the sheer physical dominance of the top teams, and will likely struggle against fast, aggressive attacks. But there is much to be said for a team built around a shared system.

The rest of this tier is filled with fading giants of the women’s game—Norway and China in particular, Sweden to a lesser extent—and teams looking to take a step forward into the next rank. Spain, in particular, has taken major strides in recent years (with the recent success of the Spanish U17s only demonstrating their status as a team on the rise) and might be a dark horse here.

Norway have one potential wild card in the form of Ada Hegerberg. She stepped away from international soccer last summer and there have been no signs of a rapprochement. That’s unfortunate for Norway. Without her, they are a solid team, but one with narrow margins available in tight games. With her, their chances of scraping a win against a top team would grow significantly.

The first three tiers combine to include fifteen teams. If chalk held perfectly, there would be room for all fifteen to escape their groups. However, given the vagaries of the draw, and the obvious reality that some teams will outperform expectations while others fail to clear the bar, it would be quite surprising if all fifteen did in fact make the Round of 16. To see who is likely to beat out some of these teams, you’ll want to look at Tier 4.

Tier 4: Strivers

Scotland, New Zealand, Nigeria, South Africa, Chile

The teams in this group have fewer obvious strengths, and more glaring flaws, than those in the 3rd tier. But the gap is not enormous. I would certainly expect a few of this group to outperform some of those listed ahead of them. The question is which ones.

Scotland have the biggest single weapon here, in the form of Kim Little. Combine her with a defensively robust and well organized team, and you have a recipe for success. I couldn’t quite convince myself to move them up a tier, but I consider them the team in Tier 4 with the best chance to move up.

New Zealand offers some intriguing possibilities. The Kiwis made an excellent signing, bringing in former Orlando coach Tom Sermanni, which may do quite a bit for their chances. Sermanni would be a great addition under any circumstances, but he’s probably the best possible option for the particular case here, with recent serious allegations of misconduct and mistreatment by the former coaching staff. Bringing in someone universally liked and respected like Sermanni may go a long way toward healing those wounds.

The final three teams in this tier will face a tougher road, given their likely draws. Based on their current rankings, they will probably be stuck in Pot 4, giving them a tougher draw than the others in this group. Still, there are reasons for hope in each case.

South Africa have taken major strides in recent years. Their NWSL contingent surprised many (myself included) in 2018 with their quality, and they are emblematic of renaissance in the South African system. This is their first World Cup, and they’ll be hoping to make a splash. That compares to their CAF compatriots, Nigeria, who have attended every World Cup so far (one of only seven teams to do so). Both have enough talent to challenge the more favored teams, but they’ll probably have to ride their luck a bit as well.

The last team is Chile. When I did an initial draft of these rankings at the end of the summer, I put Chile in the 5th tier. But with their recent victory over Chile, I’ve decided to move them up a rung. I certainly wouldn’t bet on them to rack up another famous victory in the tournament itself, but they’ve demonstrated a level of performance that makes them worthy of a more serious look.

Tier 5: No expectations and nothing to lose

Thailand, Jamaica, Argentina, Cameroon

These four teams are going to be in for a tough ride. While all will certainly hope to advance to the knockout stages, more realistically they should be willing to regard even managing one or two results as a satisfactory tournament.

Cameroon fans may object to being placed in a tier below their CAF counterparts. After all, they did take Nigeria to penalties in the only direct match-up between those squads. Plus, Cameroon made the knockout stage in 2016, so they’ll certainly have reason to hope for a repeat of that performance. Still, they have less obvious talent than the teams in the 4th tier, and there is little about their record in recent years to suggest they are quite at that level.

Thailand’s qualification was heavily aided by the peculiar AFC seeding process, which put them in a group with China, the Philippines, and Jordan, while Australia, Japan, and South Korea all fought it ought in the other group. Furthermore, North Korea was actually eliminated at an earlier stage, clearing out even more space in the competition. Still, they did what was necessary to make the cut, and did manage to take Australia to penalties in the semifinal, showing that they will hardly be pushovers.

Argentina’s intercontinental qualifying match-up against Panama showcased both the strengths of weaknesses of the team. A resounding 4-0 win in the home leg illustrated the potential of the team. But they struggled badly for much of the return leg and could easily have found themselves in some trouble if Panama had been able to finish a bit more clinically.

Finally, there’s Jamaica, who qualified via two famous victories, one over Costa Rica to edge into the knockout rounds, and another on penalties over Panama. Led by the prodigious talents of Bunny Shaw, they have a solid team that was good enough to push past the traditional secondary teams of CONCACAF to take a place at the final. But their performances against the US and Canada in that tournament showed just how wide the gulf still is between them and the true world powers.

So that’s it. Twenty-four teams, who will be competing for sixteen places in the knockout stage.

We’ll certainly know more once the draw is announced next week, at which point I’ll return with an assessment of whose paths got easier or harder. Given a straight seeding system, there shouldn’t be any true ‘group of death,’ but these things can make a difference at the margins.

Euro Roundup No.2

Posted on by RJ Allen

Welcome back to Euro Roundup. I hope you all enjoyed the first installment and will be looking forward to many more to come. If there’s anything that you would like me to cover in a future roundup or if there’s something you want to find out about football in Europe, feel free to tweet me and I’ll consider it.

International Flavour

January is typically more about International teams with training camps and friendlies occurring this month. This month usually sees teams fly off for sunnier climes and kick off the year with some international training at La Manga. This is a time where each team can work on fitness, techniques, and test out tactics with no risk. These camps become especially important in a qualification or major tournament year.

Teams that have gone out to La Manga include England, Scotland, Spain, Netherlands, Russia, and Norway. The same day that this goes out, the Netherlands will be facing England in a friendly. They haven’t got off to the best of starts at La Manga, however. They faced Spain on the 20th and lost 2-0 thanks to goals from Alexia Putellas and Gema Gili. This marked the end of the 12-game unbeaten run that they had which included the Euros. Other friendlies included Scotland taking on Norway with the Norwegians coming out as 3-0 winners, and Slovakia beating Russia 1-0.

There are friendlies going elsewhere as well. France took on Italy in Marseille as part of their World Cup preparation. The game ended in a 1-1 draw with goals from Amandine Henry and Cristiana Girelli. Sweden traveled to Cape Town to take on South Africa and emerged 3-0 winners with debutant Loreta Kullashi netting a brace.

League Action

There has been some league and cup action that has happened since the last roundup but with the international break, it’s been mostly lower leagues that have been in action as well as some cup action.

In cups, the Faxafloi Cup was in action in Iceland with FH beating HK/Vikingur 3-0 and IA winning 4-0 against Grotta. That wasn’t the only cup in action as the Reykjavik Cup occurred with Fylkir, KR, and HK/Vikingur all winning. Italy had one cup match in the Coppa Italia as Tavagnacco thrashed Unterland 6-0. Rounding up the cups in the Netherlands, Wartburgia II were on the end of a 6-0 thrashing thanks to Saestum.

Now to the leagues. In Belgium, there was only one game in the Super League. Genk beat OH Leuven 3-1 to leave OH Leuven 6 points from safety. In the 1st Division, SG-Tertre-Hautrage and Kontich both won to keep their title challenge going with both on the same points but Tertre edging ahead on goal difference. The 2nd Division saw all the bottom three clubs lose in Group A, but Cerkelladies Brugge are level on points with Sottegem who are just above them. Genk II kept their winning run going to keep their 6 point lead intact.

Spain is not only the current site of international friendlies but also has some league action of its own. The 1a Nacional, below the Primera Division, is split into 7 groups. Group 1, 2, 5, and 6 were the groups that played this week. Notable results are Oviedo Moderno winning to go within a point of leaders Deportivo de La Coruña. Osasuna beat Oiartzun 2-0, taking Osasuna above Oiartzun and into 4th in Group 2. Group 5 saw Tacón go top after a 5-2 win against Parquesol. They pushed Atletico Madrid down into 2nd who they lost to the previous week. Finally, Group 6 Las Palmas saw Femarguin go 3 points ahead after beating Firgas 4-0.

Not all lower leagues were so lucky with staging games. Wet and wintery weather hit the FA Women’s Premier League quite badly with just the one match surviving. That match saw Crewe Alexandra take on Chorley in the Division 1 Northern league. Crewe were 1-0 up at half time but persistence from Chorley meant that in the end they won 4-2. Chorley are now a few points behind Crewe in the table.

Euro Roundup: An Introduction

Posted on by RJ Allen

Hello and welcome to a new weekly segment on Backline Soccer. Most of our coverage focuses on the USWNT and the NWSL, but I’m here to give you an insight into soccer, or football as we call it, in Europe.

What is the Euro Roundup?

It’s a weekly segment that informs you about results and news from around Europe’s leagues. Not only that but there will be results and news from international teams–did you know that World Cup Qualifying is already in full swing on this side of the Atlantic? 

European action

There is no single schedule for European leagues, with some operating on the traditional fall-to-spring schedule, but others mixing it up a bit and running on the calendar year. Those already in action include many of the bit names–including the English WSL (after a schedule reset this year), Frauen Bundesliga, Division 1 and Primera Division. One league that operates on the calendar year is Scotland, who just announced the fixtures for the new season, with matches scheduled to begin next month, and then running all the way up until 28th October.  Glasgow City, who have won 11 league titles in a row, start off the defence of their SWPL1 title against Stirling University FC at home on 11th February. As with many European countries, Scotland has a tiered structure, with leagues running down through SWPL2 to SWFL2. 

All that means there is plenty of ground for this column to cover!

Transfers

The transfer window is currently open in Europe. For those unfamiliar with that system, it means that teams can buy players even when they are contracted to a club. The price is negotiated to buy out the old contract.  For example, Fran Kirby was signed by Chelsea from Reading after the World Cup in 2015. Her fee was a British record £40,000-£60,000 (about $53,000-$82,000). It’s possible that has since been broken (unlike the men’s side, transfer fees in women’s football tend to be kept quiet). When a player is out of contract, they’re effectively a free agent.  Another way of getting a player to the club is a loan. In this case, the player remains owned by the parent club but is lent to another club for half or a full season. Some clubs enter in a clause whereby they can’t play against their parent club. Some clubs that have these loaned players may look to buy them later on.

These transfers are limited to two windows during the season: one over the summer and the other in January. This is the same as on the men’s side of things, although the timing of the windows is a little different. For example, the WSL opened it’s transfer window on the 29th December and it will close on 25th January.

One league that I’ve been keeping an eye on is the WSL. The most recent big news–likely familiar to NWSL fans–was Nadia Nadim’s transfer from Portland Thorns to Manchester City. She’s already made an impact scoring a header in a 5-2 win over Reading.

There’s also a lot of news associated with the league’s transition to a winter season. Because of the switch, many existing contracts didn’t quite line up well with the new season. That’s produced a lot of renewed contracts, with Birmingham renewing the contracts of Marisa Ewers, Andrine Hegerberg and Aoife Mannion and Reading re-signing Molly Bartrip, Grace Moloney and Rachel Rowe.

But there have also been some moves. Birmingham recently lost Bella Linden to Koln in Germany and Chloe Peplow to Brighton. Reading lost Mandy Van Den Berg who was part of the winning Netherlands squad at the Euros. She and the Royals terminated her contract mutually and she has now joined Valencia in Spain.

There’s still a few weeks til the window closes so expect quite a few more signings and renewed contracts to occur.

World Cup Qualifiers

As previously mentioned, World Cup qualifying is already going on in Europe. Teams recently reached the halfpoint point in the process, meaning that we’re getting close to the in/out line for some teams.

You can look forward to a future article in this series that goes into more detail about the UEFA process. For now, here are a few quick highlights:

As hosts France, France will qualify automatically. In order to keep ticking over and stay prepared, they have a schedule heavy with big friendlies in the various venues for the World Cup in 2019 (as well as the now-annual SheBelieves Cup in the States).

All other countries have to go through the rigours of earning their right to play at the World Cup. There are seven groups, with the winners of each automatically going through.If qualifying concluded now, the following would be through: Wales, Switzerland, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Spain. However, since not all teams have played the same number of matches, there’s some fluidity there.

The past round of qualifying did produce some interesting results with Iceland beating Germany 3-2 in October. This ended Germany’s run of 19 years without losing a World Cup or Euro qualifier. Another interesting result was when the current European champions Netherlands drew 0-0 with the Republic of Ireland. Interestingly, the Republic of Ireland is in the same group as Northern Ireland.

The next round of fixtures starts on 22nd January, with Israel taking on Finland. After that, one interesting set to watch out for is England playing Wales both home and away–with just a point separating them and the Lionesses with a game in hand. You also might want to keep an eye out for the next match between Iceland and Germany, and for the Irish teams playing each other.

That’s a lot to cover, but hopefully this overview whets your appetite for more coverage. You can look out for this segment to go up every Tuesday, bringing you your weekly European fix. Thanks for coming along for the ride.